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Biography

Nelly’s Sportsline has been at the forefront of the handicapping world since the 1990 football season, Joe Nelson has been the lead handicapper since 2003.

Active since: 1990

Location: Madison, Wisconsin

Widely known for the Nelly’s Sportsline Green Sheet weekly newsletter in the football season, Nelly’s Sportsline has provided consistent returns for scores of clients nationwide for more than three decades. In the lead role for nearly two decades, Joe Nelson has earned significant acclaim for contest wins, top rankings on national leaderboards, impressive win percentages, as well as being recognized for providing outstanding content and analysis showcasing an intimate understanding of the workings and cycles of the three major American sports and the active wagering marketplace.

Some recent highlights:

2020-21 Football: In the atypical 2020-21 football season Nelly’s Sportsline delivered an impressive showing in both college and NFL football, posting an incredible closing run through the bowls and NFL Playoffs. Nelly’s finished at exactly 60.0% in the 2020-21 NFL season including a 10-1 run through the playoffs and the Super Bowl, backing Tampa Bay and turning in a perfect card on a handful of Super Bowl props. Nelly’s finished the 2020-21 college football season with a winning selection on Alabama in the championship game to complete the college season with a 62.5% winning percentage, closing the season on an epic 75.0% run from November 7 on, including a 77.8% winning percentage in bowl releases.

2020-21 Basketball: Nelly’s finished the NBA regular season winning at a 62.0% pace, for a fourth consecutive NBA regular season above a 60.0% winning percentage. Nelly’s finished the 2020-21 college basketball regular season at 62.7%.

2020 Baseball: Nelly’s turned in a profitable MLB season for the fifth time in the previous six years in the abbreviated 2020 baseball season. Totals were a standout with a 61.1% winning percentage on MLB over/under selections in the 2020 regular season.

2019-20 Basketball: Nelly’s hit 62.9% in the 2019-20 NBA regular season before the pause in March. Nelly’s added a 63.6% winning percentage in the NBA restart to complete a 63.1% regular season. Nelly’s was also profitable in college basketball before the season was cancelled at 54.5%.

2018-19 Football: Nelly’s had winning records and slightly profitable results in both the NFL and NCAA seasons.

2018-19 Basketball: Nelly’s finished at 57.7% in the 2018-19 college basketball season including a 62.5% winning percentage in the 2019 NCAA Tournament capped off by selecting Virginia for the championship. Nelly’s had a historically great NBA regular season finishing at 66.1% in 2018-19 including an 84.2% run in December 2018 that included an 11-game winning streak while also posting a 14-game winning streak late in the season.  

2018 Baseball: Nelly’s grinded out a profitable MLB regular season at 52.7% with the vast majority of those selections being underdogs or totals. Nelly’s had a 62.2% winning percentage in the 2018 MLB postseason including hitting 77.8% in postseason totals.

2017-18 Football: Nelly’s turned in an incredibly profitable 2017-18 NFL season hitting 60.7% in the regular season and 71.4% in the NFL playoffs, backing the Eagles in all three of their playoff games through the Super Bowl upset. Nelly’s also hit 63.6% in the 2017-18 college bowl season.

2017-18 Basketball: Nelly’s hit 61.1% in the 2017-18 college basketball season including a 68.8% winning percentage in the 2018 NCAA Tournament after backing Villanova in both Final Four games. That season included a 73.5% pace in February 2018 college basketball. Nelly’s hit 63.1% in the 2017-18 NBA regular season including a 66.7% mark in the first half before the All-Star break, while posting a winning record in every single month of that NBA regular season.

2017 Baseball: Nelly’s turned in a third straight profitable MLB season in 2017 including a 66.7% mark in the World Series. In that season Nelly’s posted two separate eight-game winning streaks with solely underdog selections.

2016-17 Football: Nelly’s closed the season on a strong note with a 69.4% mark in the 2016-17 college bowl season.

2016-17 Basketball: Nelly’s turned in a phenomenal March Madness run hitting 65.0% in NCAA Tournament selections and a 62.2% winning percentage from March 1 through backing North Carolina in early April for the championship. Nelly’s also turned in a 60.0% record in the NBA Playoffs in 2017.

2016 Baseball: Nelly’s hit 54.6% in the 2016 MLB regular season with almost exclusively underdogs and totals for a massive profit return, including hitting 60.5% on totals in the regular season and 66.7% on totals in the 2016 MLB postseason.

2015-16 Football: Nelly’s hit 61.9% in the 2015-16 NFL season including posting an 85.7% winning clip in the NFL playoffs, while backing the Broncos to blast the Panthers in the Super Bowl. Nelly’s hit 71.4% in the 2015-16 college bowl season including riding Clemson as an underdog in their narrow loss to Alabama for the playoff title.  

2015-16 Basketball: Nelly’s hit 61.9% in the 2015-16 college basketball regular season including three huge months with an 87.5% November 2015, a 65.8% January 2016, and a 61.9% February 2016. Nelly’s also had a profitable NBA regular season in 2015-16.

2015 Baseball: A 63.6% month of April with almost exclusively underdogs buoyed a profitable MLB season in 2015, a season finished off by backing the Royals as an underdog in each of their four World Series wins.

2014-15 Football: Nelly’s had an 85.7% winning percentage in the 2014-15 NFL playoffs for a great closing run.

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2025 National League Win Total Opinions

Sunday, Mar 23, 2025

Opening Day for the 2025 MLB season is almost here. Our projections for the 2025 season are complete and we have a season win total opinion for each division in the National League. Here are three selections in the National League for 2025 baseball.  NL EAST UNDER 91½ Philadelphia Phillies: The Braves and Mets look like serious NL contenders and Philadelphia’s 95-win record last season included a .500 record after the All-Star break. The Phillies were .500 in games vs. the Braves and Mets last season but had a surprisingly strong record vs. the NL West, going 10-2 vs. the Dodgers and Padres, a feat that will be extremely difficult to repeat. Philadelphia won 23 one-run games in 2024 and received overachieving seasons from Ranger Suarez and Christopher Sanchez on the mound. Aaron Nola also had a bounce-back season in what has been a run of decline in recent years. Plugging Jesus Luzardo into the rotation hasn’t worked out for the Athletics or Marlins outside of a brief run of success in 2023 as his talent hasn’t translated to sustained MLB success. The bullpen also has some question marks and with Suarez and Matt Strahm potentially starting the season on the IL, the Phillies could face a pinch on the pitching staff in April. Philadelphia remains a strong NL contender but last year was the first time the Phillies topped 90 wins since 2011 as the 2022 NL Champions were just an 87-win team.  NL CENTRAL UNDER  81½ Wins Cincinnati Reds: The Reds have some promising arms in the rotation, but consistency has been a challenge and last season the Reds won just 77 games with a surprise career year from Nick Martinez. Cincinnati didn’t have a single pitcher reach 151 innings last season as there is injury history with all the starting options and it appears that Andrew Abbott is starting the season in the IL, as is the team’s primary catcher Tyler Stephenson which could be a negative for the pitching staff as well as the loss of his offensive potential. Elly De La Cruz wows everyone but the depth in the lineup isn’t as strong as the other National League Central contenders. The Reds had awful results in one-run games last season, going 15-28, but the bullpen is likely again to be a weak spot for the team and the Reds won the season series with the Cubs and Cardinals last season despite finishing behind those teams in the NL Central race. Cincinnati had the third worst home record in the NL as well and the Reds haven’t had a winning record at home since 2021 as it is a tough ballpark to pitch in, particularly for a staff without many veterans.  NL WEST UNDER 85½ San Diego Padres: The Padres received great unexpected contributions from Michael King, Matt Waldron, and Randy Vasquez on the mound last season and replicating those returns isn’t a given for this group. Yu Darvish has been hurt this spring while Joe Musgrove had off-season surgery and will miss the season. Nick Pivetta was picked up to join the rotation, but he sits 15 games below .500 in his career decisions despite consistently pitching for competitive teams in Philadelphia and Boston. The Padres went 10-2 in extra-inning games last season and won the season series vs. the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Giants last season. San Diego also went 43-20 after the All-Star break last season for an amazing closing run that will be difficult to match. San Diego finished ahead of Arizona last season in the NL West despite a worse scoring differential and last season’s 93-win season was the second best win count in franchise history. San Diego won only 82 games in 2023 and the risk of this team falling out of the playoff race appears greater than the chances of the Padres finding the playoffs again. 

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2025 American League Win Total Opinions

Sunday, Mar 23, 2025

Opening Day for the 2025 MLB season is almost here. Our projections for the 2025 season are complete and we have a season win total opinion for each division in the American League. Here are three selections in the American League for 2025 baseball.  AL EAST OVER 81½ Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays finished 80-82 last season, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2018. Tampa Bay has won at least 80 games in eight consecutive seasons and the pitching staff looks formidable in 2025. Add that injuries have downgraded the potential for New York and Baltimore in the American League East race and Tampa Bay has the credentials to be a comeback team in 2025 while pushing for a playoff spot. Boston is getting attention for a few free agent splashes, but the Rays were a winning team until late August last season. Playing home games in a minor league ballpark in Tampa this season will be interesting, but it won’t necessarily be a negative change for a team that struggled to get support at the Tropicana Dome. Shane McClanahan’s health will likely determine whether the Rays are a serious AL contender or just an also-ran squad, but this group has the markers of some of the recent Rays teams that competed for the AL East title.  AL CENTRAL UNDER 83½ Kansas City Royals: The Royals had a breakthrough playoff season going 86-76 in a surprisingly competitive American League Central that produced three playoff teams and four teams with a winning record. The Royals had great success in the rotation last season but Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha in particular look like they were major overachievers in 2024. Detroit and Cleveland look formidable again in 2025 while Minnesota should remain in the mix in the AL Central race. The White Sox also can’t possibly be as bad as they were last season as it will be a difficult path for Kansas City with the Royals having a 12-1 record vs. the White Sox last season while also winning the season series with the Tigers and Guardians. 2024 was the only season since 2015 in which the Royals produced a winning record and the franchise has only four seasons with more than 83 wins since 1993. Brady Singer provided 32 steady starts for the Royals last season and will be missed and while Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic have amazing potential, putting it all together for a full season isn’t a certainty and both lefties have struggled in spring training.  AL WEST OVER 85½ Texas Rangers: Perhaps there was a World Series letdown in a disappointing 2024 follow-up season for the Rangers, but this is likely to be a formidable team in the American League West in 2025. Jacob deGrom’s health looms as a major question mark but the Rangers have good options in the rotation and have been successful without deGrom contributing much the past two seasons. The Rangers had a tough mid-season run in May and June last season but had winning results in three different months and there is room to improve after going just 3-10 vs. the Mariners last season and going only 7-6 vs. the Athletics. Texas has one of the better lineups in baseball and the organization has been willing to make aggressive moves as a trade deadline acquisition will be possible. The Astros lost a few key players in the off-season and the Angels and Athletics figure to be two of the worst teams in the AL as Texas should have the potential to play closer to the 90-win regular season of 2023. 

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NBA March Schedule Outlook: East Contenders

Wednesday, Feb 26, 2025

 The All-Star Break is complete and while the NBA regular season schedule goes two weeks into April, the standings will likely take form in March. Here is a look at the top Eastern Conference playoff threats with a look at the upcoming March schedules and what one can expect in the big picture by the end of the month.   Cleveland Cavaliers: At 48-10 the Cavaliers could approach a record pace for the franchise that won 66 wins in 2008-09, already matching last season’s win total. Chasing that record isn’t expected to be a priority for Cleveland, but Boston could push the Cavaliers to remain competitive in pursuit of locking up the #1 seed. Cleveland’s schedule has been favorable as there is some valid skepticism in the strength of record. The March path isn’t likely to provide much of a dent however as Cleveland only plays a few games in March vs. top contenders. Cleveland will be on the road for 10 of 17 games in the month with a 27-4 home record included in the current record. The end of February meeting with Boston will grab headlines but the Cavaliers aren’t likely to go anywhere as the team with the league’s best record.   Boston Celtics: Boston won 64 games in the regular season last year and went on to win the NBA Championship. This year’s team isn’t on quite the same pace and surprisingly has 10 home losses. The Celtics have performed well against top competition this season however and should still be considered the team to beat in the East even if Cleveland runs away with the #1 seed. March will test the Celtics as Boston is more likely to slide to the #3 position than to rise to the #1 position. The Celtics have home games with the Nuggets, Lakers, and Thunder early in March before playing eight of the final nine March games on the road in a tough road trip. That trip ends with a road game in Memphis that will be a sixth consecutive road game in the span of 11 days. Boston has played well on the road this season but maintaining the torrid February pace is unlikely through the upcoming path.   New York Knicks: The Knicks have faced the weakest schedule in the NBA at this point in the season and New York has the fewest top 10 caliber wins of any of the top nine teams in the league. New York just failed in both tests vs. the top East contenders with losses in Cleveland and Boston out of the All-Star Break. The Knicks will face a road-heavy start to March after closing February with a difficult game in Memphis. New York has a five-game west coast trip early in March that includes two games in Los Angeles. The back end of March path is favorable however as New York could pick up some ground on the Celtics in the next month. New York plays Cleveland twice plus the Celtics in April but those games may be more meaningful for the Knicks in the standings at that point.   Indiana Pacers: Indiana isn’t often mentioned as a serious contender, but the Pacers were in the Eastern Conference Finals last season and March should be a good month for the Pacers to put together a strong record. The Pacers have only eight road games in March and only one is against an elite contender. The Pacers will have games in Milwaukee and Minnesota as well, but most games are well spaced out as Indiana has started the season playing more road games than home games so far through the schedule. The Pacers don’t have a lot of high-end wins in the season record and the scoring differential is barely positive for the Pacers, but this is a team that could climb closer to the top three in March, while facing some urgency with a tight race in the #4-6 spots.   Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks were the in-season NBA Cup winners in December, but it has mostly been a mediocre run since defeating the Thunder in Las Vegas. Milwaukee has a very difficult schedule March schedule ahead and sliding to the bottom of the Eastern Conference playoff picture is a real possibility. The Bucks have a very difficult run in early March as in the span of 12 days they play Cleveland, Indiana twice, the Lakers twice, plus the Thunder and Warriors. They also have a five-game road trip in late March ending in Denver before a late March home date with the Knicks. Milwaukee only has four games in March where they figure to be even a modest favorite as things could get worse for Milwaukee as this might be the #6 seed by the end of the month, with Milwaukee fortunate that only five other teams in the East currently have a winning record.  Detroit Pistons: Detroit is one of the great stories of the NBA going from a 14-win season to being a likely playoff team. The Pistons don’t have a great profile as a top postseason threat, but this is a younger and hungrier team than many of the veteran-led squads in the mix for playoff spots. Detroit has enjoyed a nice run of results around the All-Star break there will be a lot of winnable games in March. Detroit will play Washington twice, plus games with New Orleans, Utah, San Antonio, Brooklyn, and Portland in March. The Pistons might not hold up in games vs. Oklahoma City and Cleveland but this is a team that could rise to play well in those home opportunities in potential flat spots on the schedule for contenders. Overall, the March schedule is appealing with only eight road games and many winnable games for Detroit to maintain its top six position in the East, with a realistic chance to climb to #5 this month. The final two games of the season for Detroit are with Milwaukee and those Central games could wind up determining positions in the East standings. 

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NBA March Schedule Outlook: West Contenders

Wednesday, Feb 26, 2025

 The All-Star Break is complete and while the NBA regular season schedule goes two weeks into April, the standings will likely take form in March. Here is a look at the top Western Conference playoff threats with a look at the upcoming March schedules and what one can expect in the big picture by the end of the month.   Oklahoma City Thunder: Oklahoma City owns a massive lead in the Western Conference standings as the Thunder will likely lock up the #1 position in the conference before the end of March. Chasing down Cleveland for the #1 overall seed may not be a huge priority and Oklahoma City has a few difficult stretches in the March schedule. The Thunder have a game at Memphis early in the month then have a mid-March gauntlet with back-to-back home games with Denver before a road trip going through Boston, Detroit, and Milwaukee in five days. Oklahoma City should maintain its current pace but one shouldn’t expect a dominant month with little incentive in the West standings. The Thunder will be chasing 60 wins, which is the most the team has posted since moving to Oklahoma City, while the Supersonics were 64-game winners in 1995-96.   Memphis Grizzlies: Memphis has looked the part of a serious contender but any thoughts of catching Oklahoma City in the West standings should be wiped away with a glance at the March schedule. Memphis will be tested with two games vs. the Thunder in March plus games vs. the Cavaliers, Clippers, Lakers, and Celtics in the month. Memphis will face a five-game west road trip late in the month that should take a toll as well. Memphis could pick up a bit of ground with seven of the first nine March games at home, but this is a team that has faced one of the weakest schedules in the NBA and has a very poor record vs. the top of the league this season. The Grizzlies are only 2.5 ahead of the #5 position and it might be a slight surprise if Memphis is still in the #2 spot by the end of March.  Denver Nuggets: Like Memphis, Denver has a poor record vs. the top teams on the schedule and Denver is likely at risk to slide out of the top three in the West standings. The month starts in Boston and the Nuggets will also face the Thunder twice on the road plus home dates with Minnesota and the Lakers all in the first two weeks of March. A four-game road trip including stops in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Houston will follow late in March as well. Denver has a very difficult March schedule ahead and the door may be open for another team to move up in the conference race.   Los Angeles Lakers: The Lakers have had a great February and March could provide positive returns for the Lakers as well as this team shouldn’t be ruled out for a run to the top two in the Western Conference standings. There are plenty of difficult games on the March schedule but eight of the first 12 games will be at home. There are two four-game road trips ahead in March including two sets of back-to-back road games but there are plenty of winnable games mixed into the monthly path. The addition of Luka Doncic has made huge waves in the Western Conference picture and in the tight race for the #2-to-5 positions in the West, the Lakers have a reasonable remaining schedule. A break for the Lakers may also be that two games at Oklahoma City are in April, after the Thunder will likely have the #1 seed wrapped up.  Houston Rockets: With the big splash made by the Lakers and the more proven results from the Grizzlies and Nuggets, Houston is the forgotten team in the West race. Houston has played one of the toughest schedules in the NBA however and only the Thunder have as many top 10 wins as the Rockets. Houston has a very favorable schedule ahead In March even with a road game at Oklahoma City early in the month. Seven of the first 10 games of March will be at home for the Rockets and many of those games will be against marginal competition. Five of the final seven games of March will be on the road but only one of those road games is against a top contender. Houston had a tough February to slide in the standings, but the Rockets are only 2.0 games out of the #2 position in the West and this team has the credentials and the schedule to move up in the standings by the end of March. 

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2025 ACC Basketball Postseason Picture

Tuesday, Jan 28, 2025

The ACC picture is taking form with a few surprise contenders in the current standings with only seven of 18 teams in the league sitting above .500 in conference play at this point. All schedules are not created equal and there is some value in projecting how the next few weeks will play out.  In ESPN’s current bracketology, only five ACC teams would make the NCAA Tournament. Only 15 teams will even make the ACC Tournament as well. The conference isn’t rated incredibly well relative to the other power conferences right now but last season the conference showed up in the postseason, going 12-5 collectively with a Final Four team, three Elite 8 teams, and four Sweet 16 teams.  Here is a look at the top postseason threats in the current ACC picture:   The Favorite – Duke (10-0): Duke is perfect in the first half of the ACC season even with a few recent close calls. The Blue Devils face North Carolina for the first time this season in the coming week and they have not yet faced Clemson this season as the 10-0 start has come through the #17 ranked ACC schedule so far. Duke’s numbers are impressive, and the Blue Devils also have non-conference wins over Arizona and Auburn. Getting to play Louisville in the ACC opener may prove to have been an advantage while the Blue Devils have road wins vs. SMU and Wake Forest as well as that opening win at Louisville. Duke is on track to be a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018-19.   Next in Line – Louisville (8-1): Louisville is in a major transition season with Pat Kelsey taking over and the roster featuring numerous newcomers. The Cardinals struggled a bit in a difficult non-conference schedule, but the team has found its form of late rolling off nine straight wins including eight in a row in ACC play. That includes wins over North Carolina and Clemson at home, plus road wins over Florida State, Pittsburgh, and SMU. Seven of eight ACC wins have come by double-digit margins of victory as well. Louisville’s only game with Duke was the opener in Durham back in early December, a game the Cardinals likely would be more competitive in if those teams played right now. The remaining schedule is quite favorable for the Cardinals as if Duke slips up twice, Louisville is a threat to move up as this team should be favored in every remaining regular season game after reaching 8-1 through the #1 rated ACC schedule so far.   Tourney Bound - Clemson (9-1): This is Brad Brownell’s 15th season and Clemson, and the Tigers have only made the NCAA Tournament four times. Last season was a breakthrough, earning a #6 seed and delivering a run to the Elite 8, including nice wins over Baylor and Arizona before losing to Alabama to fall short of a Final Four run. This year’s team has similar numbers and sits two overtime losses away from being 19-2 instead of 17-4. The Tigers have only one loss in ACC play but it came to Louisville, who looks likely to pass Clemson in the standings given the remaining paths. Clemson hasn’t faced Duke or North Carolina yet and will have challenging games ahead in the coming weeks facing NC State, Florida State, and SMU on the road in February. A non-conference win over Kentucky should keep Clemson in the NCAA Tournament picture provided the team produces a solid closing run in the ACC, with a risk for a bad loss present in this year’s conference race.   Trouble Brewing – North Carolina (6-3): The Tar Heels were a possession away from winning the 2022 NCAA Championship and then didn’t even make the tournament in 2023. Last season North Carolina had a strong 17-3 ACC season and made a Sweet 16 run, though as a #1 seed in the Big Dance, expectations were higher and the tournament exit came painfully in a two-point result, while North Carolina watched nearby ACC rivals Duke and NC State advance further. This year’s team already has eight losses, and they will still face Duke twice, Pittsburgh twice, plus games vs. Florida State, Clemson, and NC State in a difficult remaining ACC path. Losses to Stanford and Wake Forest look potentially problematic and while all the non-conference losses came against quality teams, there is a complete dearth of high quality wins, with zero top 30 wins and only two top 50 wins against UCLA and SMU. Right now, North Carolina is right on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but this team likely needs to get a win over Duke to get comfortably on the right side of the cut line as there are likely to be a few more ACC losses ahead.   Wild Card – Wake Forest (7-2): Steve Forbes has yet to make the NCAA Tournament at Wake Forest even with a 13-7 ACC season in 2021-22 and a winning record in ACC play last season. Wake Foerst doesn’t have any bad losses this season though losing by 15 against Xavier could prove to be a comparison problem among potential bubble teams. Wake Foerst has a nice win over Michigan from November and has posted a strong 7-2 start to the ACC season with the losses in competitive games vs. Clemson and Duke. The Demon Deacons beat North Carolina last week and have a big opportunity this week at Louisville, before hosting Pittsburgh over the weekend. If Wake Forest can split those games, the early February path is favorable and getting to 14-6 or better in ACC play is realistic with the toughest remaining games at SMU in mid-February and then at Duke in early March. Last year’s team had a pretty strong case to be included, and it will likely be another close call for the Demon Deacons on Selection Sunday.   Crashing Out – Pittsburgh (4-4): The Panthers were a tough omission from the 2024 NCAA Tournament with a 12-8 record in league play, surging late after starting just 1-5. That included a win at Duke, while sweeping NC State and beating Wake Forest. There were a handful of bad losses however plus a weak non-conference schedule. This season Pittsburgh had a 9-2 non-conference season with only quality losses and a few solid wins beating West Virginia, LSU, and Ohio State in a true road game. That put the Panthers on the right side of the NCAA Tournament picture, but after staring 3-0 in ACC play, the Panthers have lost four of the past five. Last week’s overtime home loss to Clemson was a damaging miss and the Panthers have a tough stretch of games in the next two weeks facing North Carolina twice plus road games vs. Wake Forest and SMU. Pittsburgh still must play Louisville on the road in March after losing to the Cardinals at home and it is hard to envision the Panthers surviving the upcoming schedule still sitting on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble.   Dark Horse – SMU (6-3): SMU had a great first ACC season in football and is proving worthy in basketball as well. The Mustangs didn’t do enough in the non-conference season to warrant NCAA Tournament consideration, but they will have the chance to make some noise in the ACC standings. In the 6-3 conference start there aren’t any high-end wins, losing the three toughest games including two home games. The toughest remaining games vs. Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, and Clemson are all in Dallas however as a great February run isn’t impossible for this team and doing so would likely give SMU quality bubble comparison ammunition. This team has appealing shooting numbers and benefits from doubling up games with fellow ACC newcomers California and Stanford. Clemson didn’t make the NCAA Tournament two years ago while finishing 14-6 in conference play, but it would be very difficult to leave out a team that finishes 15-5 or better, and while that would be on the high-end of the possible outcomes for SMU, it seems possible with the toughest games already completed. 

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2025 Big East Basketball Postseason Picture

Tuesday, Jan 28, 2025

2025 Big East Basketball Postseason Picture   The Big East has the past two national titles and has seven of the past 13 NCAA Titles since 2010-11 with four titles from Connecticut, two from Villanova, and a vacated title from former member Louisville. Despite that success the Big East only had three NCAA Tournament teams last season, though all were seeded on the top three lines.  The picture for the Big East ahead of the 2025 NCAA Tournament doesn’t look a lot better as it again appears likely that the Big East bubble teams will be left out, as Seton Hall and St. John’s were last season despite strong credentials. There is work to do for the conference to live up to its recent postseason success.  Here is a look at the postseason contenders from the Big East as we approach the midpoint of the conference season:  Defending Champion – Connecticut (6-3): The Huskies won the title as a #4 seed in 2022-23, going just 13-7 in Big East play and then last season won the title as the clear favorite as a #1 seed with a 31-3 record as Dan Hurley’s team should still be considered the team to beat. Connecticut did earn three impact non-conference wins in early December beating Baylor, Texas, and Gonzaga, after losing three non-conference games in Hawaii in November, with none of those results looking favorable at this point. With potentially bad losses on the resume, the margin for error is lower than expected for Connecticut, and right now the Huskies project to be in an 8/9 game in NCAA Tournament seeding, meaning they aren’t that far from the bubble. Connecticut has had one of the easiest rated Big East schedules so far and has still lost three games as they will still play Marquette and St. John’s twice each, plus a road game at Creighton after losing hosting the Bluejays. Three of those high-profile games for the Huskies are in the next two weeks as this is a key stretch for the defending champions.   Big East Leader – Marquette (8-1): The Golden Eagles have improved by one round in the NCAA Tournament each of the past two seasons now in year four under Shaka Smart, but they have topped out at the Sweet 16 last season, despite being a #2 seed in back-to-back seasons. Right now, Marquette would have a case to be a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament again with an 8-1 conference start and some quality non-conference wins, going 3-0 vs. Big Ten teams beating Maryland, Purdue, and Wisconsin. The problem is that the Big East path so far has been favorable and five games vs. the other three current top four teams remain with three of those five on the road. Marquette went 17-3 in conference play two seasons ago, but last season’s 14-6 finish looks more realistic for this year’s team.  Rifle Rick – St. John’s (8-1): Controversy has often followed Rick Pitino, but his track record can’t be argued with. After St. John’s narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament last season, this year’s team appears set on making sure they will be included with an 8-1 league start and a 17-3 overall record. The Big East path for St. John’s so far ranks 11th out 11 teams however as they haven’t faced Marquette or Connecticut. The only loss in conference play came narrowly at Creighton and St. John’s completed a sweep of Xavier last week. There isn’t much weight in the non-conference resume for the Red Storm, who lost in the two toughest games in very close calls in the Bahamas against Baylor and Georgia. Non-conference wins over New Mexico, Virginia, and Kansas State ultimately aren’t pulling as much weight as expected as St. John’s needs to perform well in the Big East race to stay in a good postseason position. Despite being tied on top of the Big East standings with Marquette, currently St. John’s is projected as a #7 or #8 seed in the NCAA Tournament without much of a margin for error.   Erratic Birds – Creighton (7-2): The Bluejays have looked like a quality NCAA Tournament team in a 7-2 Big East start that includes wins over St. John’s and at Connecticut, but the loss count is elevated with four non-conference defeats. The home loss to rival Nebraska won’t do Creighton any favors in March but the Bluejays do have a home win over Kansas to pull up the numbers. It is a big week for Creighton with winnable but difficult games hosting Xavier and playing at Villanova as the Bluejays look to stay in the top four of the Big East. The remaining meetings with Marquette and Connecticut are both at home while also having to play at St. John’s, and the challenge is those three big games will be in succession in the span of eight days in mid-February. An issue for Creighton also may not necessarily be the loss count or the quality of those opponents, but that Creighton was blown out in a few games with three losses by double-digits and five losses by eight or more points.   Bubble Shot – Xavier (5-5): Villanova has a little life remaining as bubble long shot, but with two non-conference losses outside the nation’s top 100, Xavier’s chances look much stronger between the 5-5 teams in the Big East. Xavier has faced the most difficult Big East schedule so far to get to 5-5 and they did manage two wins in the six games vs. Marquette, Connecticut, and St. John’s, for a commendable showing. Losses to Connecticut and St. John’s came in overtime while Xavier also had a 2-point loss to Marquette as the Musketeers have looked the part on the court. The 8-3 non-conference season lacks standout wins but wins over Wake Forest and South Carolina are at least worth mentioning and all three losses came away from home vs. top 100 teams, though the TCU and Cincinnati defeats could become more damaging by season’s end. Xavier must play at Creighton this week as falling below .500 is likely, but from there the opportunity to close the season on a strong run will be there. 13-7 in the Big East wasn’t enough for Seton Hall last season as the Musketeers will need to be sharp the rest of the way but this is a team with potential, and a team that the top three Big East contenders are likely glad to be done with for the regular season. 

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January NBA Schedule Outlook – West Contenders

Monday, Dec 30, 2024

Oklahoma City Thunder: There is little reason to expect that the Thunder will slip from the top spot in the Western Conference standings in January with a healthy lead as 2024 winds down. January will provide a few significant tests however as the Thunder face Cleveland, New York, and Dallas twice each, while also playing Boston in early January. Only seven of 15 January games are on the road, but the Thunder will face three back-to-back set-ups in the month.   Memphis Grizzlies: It has been a great comeback season for the Grizzlies, currently the NBA’s top scoring team. Memphis has delivered a fantastic December, but January’s path will be challenging. Six of the first eight games in January for Memphis are on the road including trips to Golden State, Minnesota, and Houston for a collection of tricky games. Memphis will play Houston three times in January in a key Southwest division series. Memphis plays the Wolves twice and the Spurs twice plus a trip to New York as well the January path doesn’t include the very top elite teams, it will be a grueling run for the Grizzlies.   Houston Rockets: After a strong start last season the Rockets faded late in the season. January will test Houston’s staying power again as the Rockets draw several difficult games in the next month. Houston plays Boston and Cleveland twice each in January while also playing the Grizzlies three times. January also includes games with the Mavericks, Lakers, Hawks, and Nuggets, as Houston will have one of the most difficult January schedules in the league.    Dallas Mavericks: Following a slow start to the season in defense of its Western Conference title, Dallas has been playing well in recent weeks even with injuries impacting the lineup. Dallas will play only seven road games in January as most of the toughest games will be at home. There are elite teams visiting Dallas in January however with home dates vs. Cleveland, Oklahoma City, and Boston, plus two home games with Denver. Dallas will work in games vs. some of the lesser teams in the league in January as well but Dallas will get a significant boost to its strength of schedule in January with the recent rise built on a favorable path.   Los Angeles Lakers: Los Angeles is currently #5 in the West standings, but it is a crowded picture with positions #5 to #11 separated by only three games. The Lakers have played more road games than home games at this point in the season for a relatively difficult schedule at this point in the season compared to many of the top teams in the standings. January should offer a great opportunity for the Lakers to move up from the pack in the Western Conference standings. The Lakers have nine of the team’s first 12 January games at home. The Lakers do play Boston at home in late January but that is the only elite team on the path plus back-to-back games with Houston and Dallas. Overall, the Lakers have one of the most friendly schedules in the NBA in January and will need to take advantage of it given how close the final positioning in the West could be.  Los Angeles Clippers: The Clippers are a top six team in the West at this point, with expected contenders Denver, Minnesota, and Golden State lurking close behind. Los Angeles has enjoyed a schedule with more home games than road games so far and the Clippers are 11-6 in the new arena as 2024 winds down. 2025 will start with a challenge as the first four games are all against quality teams including road games at Oklahoma City, Minnesota, and Denver. The middle of the month offers a stretch of games with seven of eight at home, but the Lakers, Celtics, and Bucks will be visiting before a road trip to close the month. Los Angeles should stay relevant this month but there are enough challenging games to consider the possibility that the Clippers could fall out of the top six by the end of the month. 

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January NBA Schedule Outlook – East Contenders

Monday, Dec 30, 2024

Cleveland Cavaliers: Cleveland is off to an amazing start to the season but the schedule grades as one of the weakest in the NBA. Through December 31 the Cavaliers will have played just nine games vs. Western Conference teams but they have seven such games in January alone including two games with the Thunder and Rockets plus games with Dallas and Minnesota for a daunting path in the next month. Cleveland has eight of 15 January games at home as it will remain a home-heavy path for the Cavaliers before a long stretch of mostly road games in late February and March.   Boston Celtics: The defending NBA champions will open 2025 with an incredibly difficult road trip facing Minnesota, Houston, Oklahoma City, and Denver all on the road in the span of six days. There is another four-game road trip vs. quality Western Conference teams in late January ahead for Boston as well with 10 of 16 January games on the schedule away from the Garden. Boston isn’t going anywhere as a top Eastern Conference contender, but it is unlikely that the Celtics will close the gap on the Cavaliers in January.   New York Knicks: The Knicks have played 18 of the team’s first 32 games on the road and have kept pace, sitting third in the Eastern Conference standings, just behind Boston. New York has a favorable January schedule as the Knicks will play only four of 15 January games on the road and one of those games is just across town in Brooklyn. The Knicks do face home and road games vs. the Thunder plus home dates with the Magic, Bucks, Timberwolves, and Nuggets as there are challenging games ahead but all-in-all the Knicks may have a chance to move up with a strong month of January. The Knicks have three remaining games with the Celtics after January and will face a daunting road schedule in March as now is the time to shine for New York to solidify a top four spot in the East standings.   Orlando Magic: The Magic have navigated injuries to maintain a solid position in the Eastern Conference heading into 2025. January should provide the return of Paolo Banchero and given the path ahead, the Magic may need a boost with a challenging January schedule. The Magic have eight road games in January including games in New York, Milwaukee, and Boston. The Magic have home games with the Timberwolves, Bucks, and Nuggets as well. Orlando will play Detroit and Toronto twice each, but the month will end with the start of a six-game road trip into February.   Atlanta Hawks: After making a nice run in the NBA Cup Tournament, The Hawks have proven to be an upstart in the Eastern Conference race. January’s schedule will greatly test the staying power for the Hawks however with eight of the team’s first 10 games on the road including several tough draws with a five-game west coast trip plus road games in Boston and New York. The month will close with the start of a four-game road trip including the first two stops being Minnesota and Cleveland. Atlanta has only five home games in January so it won’t be a shock if the Hawks slip below .500 by the end of the month despite a solid start to the season.  Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks have shaken off a 2-8 start to the season and are playing like a true contender. The NBA Cup title was a galvanizing moment and while the overall ledger is uneven, Milwaukee has a chance to continue a positive trajectory into January to climb higher in the Eastern Conference standings. The Bucks have eight road games in January but four of those will be at the end of the month in a west coast trip and the matchups aren’t overly daunting. The Bucks will only play three games all month vs. the five teams ahead of them in the Eastern Conference standings and none of those will be against the Celtics or Cavaliers. 

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Early Look at ACC Basketball

Tuesday, Nov 26, 2024

A snapshot preview of conference season in college basketball comes in early December in the ACC, with most teams playing one early season ACC game before a break for finals and the holidays ahead of the resumption of conference play in early January. Here is a quick look at a few of the ACC teams in action and what to expect in the first conference games of the season in the ACC.  The Favorite – Duke: As usual Duke is getting a lot of attention, but the Blue Devils did fall short against Kentucky in the season’s first big game in Atlanta. Duke won at Arizona last week and has upcoming high-profile games with Kansas and Auburn. The first ACC game will be against Louisville on the road on December 8, with Duke sweeping a pair of games with the Cardinals last season. Jon Scheyer’s first season leading Duke went well with 27 wins, but it was a runner-up finish in the ACC standings to North Carolina, and Duke lost its first ACC tournament game. Duke made the Elite 8 in the NCAA Tournament but that solid run that included beating top seed Houston soured as the Elite 8 loss came to nearby rival NC State who was a #11 seed. Cooper Flagg has lived up to the billing as one of several talented freshmen on the roster while Tyrese Proctor and Syracuse transfer Maliq Brown bring some experience to the starting lineup as Duke remains the team to beat in the ACC.   Prove It Game – Florida State at NC State: Florida State made at least the Sweet 16 in three straight NCAA Tournaments from 2018 to 2021, and the Seminoles would have likely been a #2 seed if the 2020 tournament took place. The Seminoles have slipped the past three seasons, failing to produce a winning record in ACC play in three straight seasons. Last year’s 17-16 campaign was an improvement over the tough 2022-23 season and this year’s team is 6-1 with the only loss to Florida. This ACC opener will be a big opportunity for Florida State to reestablish itself as an upper-tier program in the conference. NC State is coming off a surprise Final Four run, winning four games as an #11 seed last March before running into Purdue in the national semifinals. The roster has turned over considerably and the 5-0 start so far this season has come through a light path. NC State will be tested with non-conference games with Purdue and Texas ahead of the ACC opener hosting Florida State, which will be a closely priced game and an opportunity to serve notice to the rest of the ACC that last year’s run wasn’t a fluke.   Breakthrough Team – Stanford: The Cardinal don’t sound right as an ACC team but Stanford under new coach Kyle Smith will have an opportunity to prove itself as a competitive group in a difficult conference this season. The ACC opener will be a familiar foe facing rival California in Berkeley and the travel schedule will be worth monitoring for the Cardinal, though eight of 10 conference road games will be in two game tandems. Stanford is off to a 6-0 start in non-conference play and has size that few ACC teams can match. Smith led a 25-win team at Washington State last season and has a strong career track record as the Cardinal look like a threat to produce the program’s first winning season since 2020-21 and could flirt with being a NCAA Tournament team.   Transition Team – Virginia: Like his father did at Wisconsin in the 2020-21 season, Tony Bennett departed on his own terms at an awkward time to the detriment of the program. Assistant Ron Sanchez takes over the Cavaliers with an impossible task of matching Bennett’s regular season track record, though the Cavaliers have not won a NCAA Tournament game since cutting down the nets with a championship in 2018-19. Virginia barely made the NCAA Tournament last season, losing by 25 to Colorado State in the First Four and this year’s team has just one returning starter from last season with Isaac McKneely. Turnovers have been a glaring problem so far in the early results for the Cavaliers who canceled out a nice win over Villanova with lopsided losses against Tennessee and St. John’s. The ACC opener will be against ACC newcomer SMU in Dallas for a tough start and the Cavaliers are likely to be an underdog in each of the team’s first seven ACC contests.   The Sleeper – Clemson: Virginia and/or North Carolina have won 11 of the past 14 ACC titles despite Duke usually being favored. Miami also has an outright title from 2013 and a shared title in 2023 and Florida State won the 2020 title. Clemson’s last ACC title was in 1990, but the Tigers did have a good 2023-24 season, finishing 24-12 and making the Elite 8 in the NCAA Tournament. Clemson was only 11-9 in ACC play but did good work in the non-conference season and earned a #6 seed even after an early exit in the ACC Tournament. Three starters are back for Clemson this season, and this is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with Cincinnati transfer Viktor Lakhin added at center and Boston College transfer Jaeden Zackery added at point guard. Clemson has started 6-1 with a loss at Boise Sate but a few decent wins at an event in Daytona Beach. Key non-conference home games with Kentucky and Memphis surround the ACC opener at Miami in early December and Clemson is a serious threat in the ACC race as they play Duke and North Carolina once each, and both games are at home. 

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Early Look at Big Ten Basketball

Tuesday, Nov 26, 2024

A taste of the conference season in college basketball comes in early December in the Big Ten, with most teams playing two early season conference games before a break for finals and the holidays ahead of the resumption of conference play in early January. Here is a look at a few of the Big Ten teams and what to expect in the first Big Ten conference action of the season.  The Favorite – Purdue: The Boilermakers had their March breakthrough last season and while the championship game ended in defeat it was a historic season for the program and Matt Painter with 34 wins. Zach Edey is in the NBA now and is irreplaceable, but four starters were with the team last season as there is strong continuity for this group. Purdue split two big early season games beating Alabama and losing to Marquette and this may still be the team to beat in the expanded Big Ten. In December Purdue plays at Penn State and hosts Maryland and when conference play resumes in January the Boilermakers have a favorable early draw as this team should produce a great early Big Ten record to sit on top of the standings before the schedule stiffens in late January to possibly open the door for a few other threats in the conference.   Prove It Game – Ohio State at Maryland: Ohio State is in a transition season under Jake Diebler, but the early returns have been promising, beating Texas in the season opener and the only loss coming in a tough road game at Texas A&M. The Buckeyes have had great 3-point shooting numbers on both sides of the ball and the Big Ten opener will be a key test to see where Ohio State stands, playing at Maryland. The Terrapins had a losing season last year for Kevin Willard to erase his solid first season with the program. Maryland is also off to a nice non-conference start including picking up a win over Villanova while the only loss was a close game with Marquette. Most of the wins were against light competition, however, as it isn’t clear what the trajectory of this year’s team will be. This should be a compelling game that will tell us more about whether Ohio State and/or Maryland will be a Big Ten threat this season.   Breakthrough Team - UCLA: The Big Ten had only six NCAA Tournament teams last season and with the expansion to 18 teams there will be expectations of more quality teams from the conference, but there also may be a muddled middle-of-the-pack. After a down 2023-24 season, Big Ten newcomer UCLA looks the part of a team that will be back on the national map. The early season schedule hasn’t proven much as UCLA lost its toughest game to New Mexico, but Mick Cronin added notable major conference transfers at several positions as this is an experienced group with strong depth and size. The schedule looks advantageous as well doubling up on the three other former Pac-12 teams in the Big Ten schedule. UCLA has posted great defensive numbers this season with four of six foes held to 50 or fewer points and the Bruins look likely to be back into the NCAA Tournament conversation in March. UCLA plays familiar teams in Washington and Oregon in the early season Big Ten tests in December.   Transition Team – Washington: The Huskies hired Danny Sprinkle who was at Utah State for just one season, going 28-7 last year. This will be another big move for the program concurrent with the huge shift in the schedule and travel path now as a Big Ten team.  Washington has a solid record through non-conference play, but the schedule has been favorable, and the team’s only loss came vs. a Mountain West team. The offensive numbers have been very poor for the Huskies, who were 17-15 last season for Mike Hopkins. Washington’s first Big Ten tests will be against UCLA and USC for familiar foes but the map in January is difficult as the Huskies should expect to be an underdog in possibly nine straight games when conference play resumes. None of the starters on this year’s team were with the program last year and while Sprinkle has strong credentials, this is a team that could struggle going through major changes this season.   The Sleeper – Wisconsin: The Badgers are never favored to win the Big Ten, but they have won the conference twice under Greg Gard and posted a third place and a second place finish as well in his nine seasons. Last year’s team finished fifth but had an ugly Round of 64 result in the NCAA Tournament after making it to the Big Ten tournament championship game. Expectations were grounded for this year’s team with AJ Storr and Chucky Hepburn transferring but John Tonje has so far looked like the portal pickup of the season, starring for the Badgers after limited playing time at Colorado State and then briefly Missouri. Wisconsin is 7-0 through a solid schedule with only one win outside the top 200, while picking up notable wins over Arizona, UCF, and Pittsburgh. The early December schedule will tell if the Badgers can compete for a Big Ten title facing Michigan at home and Illinois on the road in early December with the rivalry non-conference game with Marquette in-between those games. Even if Wisconsin can’t stay unbeaten through that tough run, the overall conference path is reasonable, facing most of the top contenders just once each though doubling up with Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois. 

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MACtion Arrives: MAC Contenders

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

There are only two MAC games this Saturday in the first weekend of November because a great college football tradition will resume next week with weeknight MAC football, affectionately known as MACtion. The next four weeks through November will be filled with Tuesday and Wednesday games in the MAC ahead of the MAC Championship December 7 in Detroit. Here is a breakdown of the current MAC contenders. Western Michigan Broncos 5-3 overall 4-0 MAC Western Michigan has allowed 32 points per game in MAC play, but the Broncos are the only 4-0 team in the conference. Western Michigan was a popular play-on team in MAC futures over the summer and veteran quarterback Hayden Wolff has done his part completing nearly 69 percent of his passes with 15 touchdown throws. Western Michigan has also posted 5.0 yards per rush this season, including 6.6 yards per rush over the past three games. This is not a trustworthy defense however and the 4-0 start has come while facing some of the expected worst teams in the conference. Western Michigan will be in MACtion in the next three weeks before a Saturday finale with rival Eastern Michigan to close the regular season. The upcoming home game with Northern Illinois and the November 12 game at Bowling Green will have a significant impact in the race. Miami OH Redhawks 4-4 overall 3-1 MAC Miami won the MAC title last season and has recovered from a 1-4 start this season to reach 4-4 with three straight MAC wins since losing the opener at Toledo. The non-conference schedule was difficult, losing reasonably competitive games with Northwestern, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame. The current run features a 30-20 head-to-head win over Ohio which could prove to be an important tiebreaker. Last week Miami won 46-7 over Central Michigan and the next two games are against Ball State and Kent State, two of the lesser teams in the conference. Miami is led by veteran quarterback Brett Gabbert in his sixth season with the team, though his numbers have not been quite as strong as last season. Miami is currently the #2 scoring defense in the conference allowing just under 18 points per game and the Redhawks have the edge in most power ratings as the top team in the conference.  Ohio Bobcats 5-3 overall 3-1 MAC Ohio picked up a 47-16 win over Buffalo last week to stay in the MAC race, bouncing back from a head-to-head loss at Miami. The remaining schedule for Ohio is favorable with Kent State, Eastern Michigan, Toledo, and Ball State remaining, but the Toledo game will be on the road where Ohio is 1-3 overall this season with the only win by two points at Central Michigan. Quarterback Parker Navarro doesn’t have great numbers but is the #4 MAC quarterback in QB Rating, ahead of Brett Gabbert and Ethan Hampton. Anthony Tyus is the second leading rusher in the MAC as Ohio is a top 15 team nationally in yards per carry, averaging 5.5 yards per rush, while only allowing 3.9 yards per rush for appealing numbers in the ground game. The Bobcats have a balanced team that could find their way to the title game. Bowling Green Falcons 4-4 overall 3-1 MAC The Falcons took on a tough non-conference schedule starting 1-3 but the losses were all one-score games including at Penn State and at Texas A&M. Bowling Green won at Toledo with 41 points in its last MAC game but did lose to Northern Illinois in October at home. The Falcons offense that has been productive managed just seven points and 205 yards in that game, though they still led at the start of the 4th quarter. The win over Toledo featured the Falcons being outgained while adding late scoring for a more convincing final than the game deserved. Connor Bazelak has been one of the better quarterbacks in the conference, but Bowling Green has featured an inconsistent defense. In the past three games the Falcons have allowed just 4.4 yards per play for excellent recent results. The remaining schedule is likely the toughest among the contenders however as the Falcons have games with both Western Michigan and Miami OH remaining. Both games are at home however and the Falcons will be in the MACtion spotlight the next two Tuesdays.  Toledo Rockets 5-3 overall 2-2 MAC The typical favorite in the MAC Toledo must still be included on this list at 2-2 as they do have a win over Miami. The remaining schedule is favorable for the Rockets and the toughest game left will be at home hosting Ohio November 20. Tucker Gleason has good numbers at quarterback even with some interceptions while backup John Alan Richter led the team to the win at Northern Illinois. A big difference this season for Toledo has been the decline of the rushing attack, down from 5.3 yards per carry and 199 yards per game last season to just 3.1 yards per carry and just 105 yards per game rushing this season. Toledo still has a capable defense allowing only 4.9 yards per play overall, third best in the MAC. This hasn’t looked like one of Jason Candle’s better teams, but the Rockets are still likely to be favored in every remaining game as reaching 6-2 with a title path is possible. 

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MACtion Arrives: MAC Spoilers

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

There are only two MAC games this Saturday in the first weekend of November because a great college football tradition will resume next week with weeknight MAC football, affectionately known as MACtion. The next four weeks through November will be filled with Tuesday and Wednesday games in the MAC ahead of the MAC Championship December 7 in Detroit. Here is a breakdown of a few teams that could star in these showcase opportunities with upset threats and entertaining play despite likely not being in contention in the MAC title race.  Northern Illinois Huskies 4-4 overall 1-3 MAC The Huskies have the top scoring defense in the MAC allowing just 17 points per game, but Northern Illinois has only one MAC win. Allowing just 4.3 yards per play the Huskies rank in the top 10 nationally in yards per play defense and have by far the best defensive numbers in the MAC. Northern Illinois has the big win at Notre Dame from early September on its resume but also has losses to Buffalo and Ball State in MAC play. After beating Bowling Green and losing a close low-scoring game with Toledo, the Huskies lost 25-23 at Ball State in a game where Northern Illinois had a 4-0 turnover deficit. Ethan Hampton led the win over the Irish but has ceded time to Josh Holst in recent weeks with Hampton missing the Toledo game and both playing last week. Holst is a better rushing presence for a solid Huskies ground attack. The Huskies have a big MACtion opportunity November 6 as they play at Western Michigan in a great top offense vs. top defense pairing. The Huskies also play at Miami in MACtion November 19 as while a MAC title is likely out of the picture, NIU could play a role in determining who gets to Detroit. Buffalo Bulls 4-4 overall 2-2 MAC Not much was expected out of the Bulls this season, but Buffalo has played four of the best teams in the MAC so far and is 2-2, beating Northern Illinois and Toledo and giving MAC leader Western Michigan a great scare in a comeback attempt in late October. In the most recent game, the Bulls were blown out at Ohio, but two defensive scores against the Bulls contributed to the lopsided final. Buffalo had 383 yards despite only 16 points in that game as this is a team that can move the ball. Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna has taken a lot of sacks but has only two interceptions while Buffalo has averaged nearly 200 rushing yards per game in the past three games, well over the season average of just 142 yards per game. The Bulls seem like a long shot to climb into the MAC race, but the remaining schedule is favorable playing Akron, Ball State, Eastern Michigan, and Kent State as this is a team capable of finishing strong to earn a surprise bowl bid.  Eastern Michigan Eagles 5-3 overall 2-2 MAC Losing last week at Akron kills any chance of making a championship run for the Eagles at 2-2 with a very difficult remaining MAC schedule. Eastern Michigan is a tough matchup as one of the fastest tempo teams in the nation however and the Eagles are capable of an upset down the stretch to shake-up the conference race. Eastern Michigan needs one more win to be bowl eligible, though the best wins of the season came vs. Jacksonville State and Central Michigan. The Eagles have made six bowl games in the past eight years for an impressive showing from Chris Creighton, who inherited a program in shambles. Cole Snyder has thrown for over 1,800 yards as the most prolific passer in the conference and he has had back-to-back 300 yard passing games and has just two interceptions this season in 272 attempts. The Eagles are one of the worst defensive teams in the conference and the nation, including allowing 7.2 yards per play the past three games, but winning an exciting shootout in MAC play at some point in November seems like a strong possibility for this group.  Ball State Cardinals 3-5 overall 2-2 MAC Ball State looked like one of the worst teams in the nation in September, getting an opening FCS win over Missouri State in dramatic fashion and then taking blowout non-conference losses to Miami and James Madison by a combined score of 125-7, surrounding a MAC opening loss at Central Michigan. Ball State’s MAC games have all been decided by three or fewer points and while the Cardinals are likely to be an underdog in every remaining game, this is a team playing better than the season valuation. Ball State lost by only 10 at Vanderbilt a few weeks ago and last week upset Northern Illinois, putting up 25 points and 392 yards on the top MAC defense. A bowl game is a long shot for the Cardinals with a difficult remaining schedule, but freshman quarterback Kadin Semonza has shown significant improvement and has no interceptions in his last three games. Ball State will be in the Tuesday spotlight for the next two weeks and could be an intriguing play-on team moving forward. 

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American League Playoff Splits

Sunday, Sep 29, 2024

While the National League still has some things to sort out, the American League playoff field is set, though the matchups could shift in the final weekend of the regular season. Here is a look at some of the season splits and potential starting pitchers for the AL Wild Card round.  New York Yankees 24-15 vs. AL playoff teams (4-2 vs. CLE, 6-1 vs. HOU, 5-8 vs. BAL, 5-2 vs. KC, 4-2 vs. DET) The Yankees have outlasted Baltimore for the AL East title and will finish just ahead of Cleveland to take the #1 position in the AL field. New York has cooled off at the plate with just a .694 team OPS in the past four weeks compared to a .761 season OPS. New York’s lineup has superior numbers vs. right-handers with a .778 team OPS, compared to just .718 vs. lefthanders. New York was only 20-23 vs. left-handed starters in the regular season.  Gerrit Cole figures to lead off in the rotation for the Yankees even if he is coming off one of his worst statistical seasons in an abbreviated 17-start campaign. His final two starts of the regular season were both excellent, though he has pitched much worse at Yankee Stadium this season. Carlos Rodon gives the Yankees a veteran lefthanded starter and after some inconsistency early in the season Rodon had a great final month. Luis Gil was terrific as an unexpected key piece in the rotation for New York and he figures to be in line to start in the playoffs with Nestor Cortes injured and Marcus Stroman struggling. Clarke Schmidt outpitched Stroman down the stretch and it will be interesting to see how New York moves forward with his ALDS roster construction for a potential fourth starter.  Cleveland Guardians 19-25 vs. AL playoff teams (2-4 vs. NYY, 1-4 vs. HOU, 4-3 vs. BAL, 5-8 vs. KC, 7-6 vs. DET) The Guardians have not been a great hitting team this season with a .703 team OPS on the season, a figure they have matched over the final four weeks of the season. Cleveland has struggled vs. right-handed pitching with a .685 team OPS but has been effective vs. left-handers batting .251 with a .751 team OPS and 56 home runs. The Guardians have one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB as well. Cleveland heads into the season finale with a 50-30 home record and as the AL #2 seed they will host the first two games against one of the wild card winners in the Division Round later next week. Cleveland finished 29-11 vs. left-handed starters in the regular season.  Tanner Bibee presumably will get the Game 1 call for Cleveland and the team’s three main starters right now are all right-handed with Gavin Williams and Ben Lively following Bibee. Left-hander Matthew Boyd is an option as well, while veteran Alex Cobb is likely to come off the IL but has only made three starts this season for Cleveland. Rookie Joey Cantillo is also going to get consideration for the playoff roster as well as Cleveland has some difficult decisions to make in mapping out what may be an unconventional pitching plan in the playoffs as the team has a tremendous bullpen.   Houston Astros 18-14 vs AL playoff teams (1-6 vs. NYY, 4-1 vs. CLE, 5-2 vs. BAL, 4-3 vs. KC, 4-2 vs. DET) The Astros have rather balanced offensive splits, with just a slight edge vs. left-handers with a .752 team OPS compared to .736 vs. right-handers. Over 75 percent of Houston’s home runs came against right-handers, however. In the final month of the regular season Houston had a .755 team OPS for a slight uptick from the season numbers and the Astros had similar winning percentages against right-handed and left-handed starters.  While Houston’s offense fell short of many of the team’s recent seasons, the pitching staff is formidable. Framber Valdez should garner some runner-up Cy Young votes with a terrific season line including a 1.96 ERA since the All-Star Break. Valdez and trade acquisition Yusei Kikuchi are lefthanded to give Houston good options on both sides. Hunter Brown had a breakthrough season for Houston and had a tremendous second half run with a 2.26 ERA since the break. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander had an incomplete regular season and had mediocre results in his 17 starts as his role this fall is a big question mark for Houston.  Baltimore Orioles  20-20 vs. AL playoff teams (8-5 vs. NYY, 3-4 vs. CLE, 2-5 vs. HOU, 4-2 vs. KC, 2-4 vs. DET) The Orioles didn’t play great baseball down the stretch posting a losing record in both July and August while hovering around .500 in September and overall, since the All-Star Break. The Orioles won 46 road games and did provide a bit of a spark on the season’s final road trip taking series wins in New York and Minnesota. Baltimore lost the division to the Yankees but is 8-5 head-to-head with New York, should they get another opportunity in October. Baltimore’s batting splits are nearly identical vs. right-handers and left-handers but the team had just a .714 team OPS in the final month compared to .751 for the season.  Corbin Burnes had a strong season to justify his acquisition as a staff ace but now is where it counts after the Orioles had a quick exit from the playoffs in 2023. Burnes has good numbers in his postseason career, mostly from 2018, but he did have his worst career playoff outing last October in a wild card loss to the Diamondbacks. Zach Eflin and Deam Kremer are capable arms to start behind Burnes, with Albert Suarez in the conversation to start as well with all four Baltimore starters right-handers.  Kansas City Royals 22-24 vs. AL playoff teams (2-5 vs. NYY, 8-5 vs. CLE, 3-4 vs. HOU, 2-4 vs. BAL, 7-6 vs. DET) Kansas City has a losing record in September, but they have held on to a postseason spot thanks to sweeping three games with the Nationals this week after losing seven in a row in mid-September. The Royals have not hit left-handed pitching well this season with a .674 team OPS and only 33 home runs vs. lefties. Bobby Witt Jr. has hit lefties just fine, but he has an incredible 1.016 OPS vs. right-handers as he and many of the Royals will prefer to draw right-handed starters. Kansas City has just a .574 team OPS in the past four weeks for a rough patch for the lineup late in the season.  Cole Ragans has been one of the AL’s best starters this season and is one of the top left-handers in the playoff field. Ragans had strong road results and was very consistent all season. Veteran Seth Lugo had an All-Star season, but he has not been as good since the break with a 3.84 ERA following a 2.48 ERA in the first half. Brady Singer also appeared to run out of gas as a fine season deteriorated in August and September as Michael Wacha may move ahead of Singer in the rotation. Wacha has a 2.79 ERA since the All-Star Break. Wacha has not pitched well in his last three playoff opportunities but he had a legendary run in the 2013 postseason. Detroit Tigers  20-24 vs. AL playoff teams (2-4 vs. NYY, 6-7 vs. CLE, 2-4 vs. HOU, 4-2 vs. BAL, 6-7 vs. KC) The Tigers have put together an amazing late season run to climb into the playoffs. The offensive numbers have been modest and even in the past month while the wins added up, the Tigers have a worse team OPS compared with the team’s season average. The Tigers have a .693 team OPS vs. right-handers, slightly preferable to the .660 team OPS vs. lefties with Detroit hitting only 29 home runs vs. lefties all season as most of the overall success has been because the pitching staff. Tarik Skubal is expected to win the AL Cy Young with an 18-4 record and a 2.39 ERA. His first half and second half splits were similar, but he turned in an amazing final month that included a 1.52 ERA and 27 strikeouts. Skubal will obviously take the ball in Game 1 for the Tigers and after that the plan isn’t clear. Reese Olson had a decent season, but he has only made three short starts since missing two months on the IL. Rookie Keider Montero has pitched well in September, but his overall numbers are suspect and he was hit hard against the Orioles in his second to last start. Former #1 pick Casy Mize is also only five starts back from two months on the IL, but he has thrown well in recent outings. Rookie Brant Hurter has the best numbers behind Skubal, but he has only made one start, mostly pitching in long relief. If the Tigers still had Jack Flaherty this would be a threatening group but advancing will likely hinge on Skubal delivering a Game 1 win.  Note – the records and statistics quoted are through Sep. 28 and do not include the final regular season games. 

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#1 NFL Draft Pick Quarterback Debuts

Saturday, Sep 07, 2024

#1 NFL Draft Pick Quarterback Debuts  With the 2024 #1 NFL Draft Pick Caleb Williams set to open the season as the starter for the Chicago Bears, it is worth examining the recent history of top draft picks in the NFL. Chicago hosts Tennessee this weekend as Williams and the Bears look to break a negative trend for top picks.  Quarterbacks were not always valued the way they are today as a quarterback was not the #1 pick in the NFL draft until the league’s ninth draft in 1944, when Notre Dame’s Heisman Trophy Winner Angelo Bertelli went 1st to the Boston Yanks. It wasn’t until the 1950s that quarterbacks were more commonly picked in the top spot, but it didn’t become an expected annual occurrence until the 2000s.  In 1998, Peyton Manning went #1 to the Colts, and he was the first #1 pick at quarterback since Drew Bledsoe in 1993. Manning obviously went on to have an amazing career and can be considered the tipping point where the #1 pick being a quarterback became a regularity, as counting Manning, 20 of 27 #1 picks since 1998 have been quarterbacks.  Manning started in Week 1 of his rookie season and took a 15-24 loss to Miami with the Colts, throwing for 302 yards but having three interceptions and few #1 picks have fared well on the scoreboard in Week 1 starts of their rookie seasons. John Elway did win as a rookie in Week 1 in 1983, but his situation was different, as he forced a trade from Indianapolis to Denver, joining a stronger team for his debut.  From Troy Aikman in 1989 to Bryce Young in 2023, 15 different #1 draft pick quarterbacks have started in Week 1, and those teams are 1-13-1 S/U and 2-13 ATS. In that time frame there have been seven other #1 draft pick quarterbacks that did not start until a later week in their rookie season and those teams have gone 1-6 S/U and 1-6 ATS.  The only quarterback since John Elway to be the #1 pick in the NFL draft and win while starting in Week 1 of their rookie season is David Carr, who started in Week 1 for the franchise debut of the Houston Texans in 2002. Carr wound up 23-56 as a starter in his career but he did throw two touchdowns while completing just 10 passes and being sacked six times as Houston won 19-10 hosting Dallas as an 8-point underdog in the opener.  The previous season Michael Vick led Atlanta to a 20-13 win in his first NFL start, but Vick was eased into that role and did not start until Week 9, having seen the field in four different games prior to his first start. Carr is the last #1 draft pick quarterback to win his first start in any week, even with 15 quarterbacks drafted #1 from 2003 to 2023.  Kyler Murray did lead Arizona to a tie in his first NFL start in Week 1 of 2019, as Arizona matched Detroit 27-27 even after falling behind 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Murray’s start was a spread winner with Arizona +3 in that game, and he provides the lone ATS win among the NFL starting debuts of the past 15 #1 draft pick quarterbacks. Those teams went 0-14-1 S/U and 1-13-1 ATS from Carson Palmer with Cincinnati in 2003 to Young with Carolina last season. The push belongs to Cam Newton in 2011, starting Week 1 for Carolina at Arizona, with the Panthers losing 28-21 while closing at +7.  #1 draft pick quarterbacks playing as a favorite in Week 1 like Williams and the Bears will be to start the 2024 NFL season is a very rare occurrence. The only two quarterbacks drafted #1 that were on favorites as Week 1 starters going back to 1983 were Jameis Winston with Tampa Bay in 2015 and Trevor Lawrence in 2021 with the Jaguars. Tampa Bay behind Winston lost 42-14 in that 2015 season opener hosting Tennessee and closing at -3. Jacksonville lost 37-21 as a -3.5-point road favorite in the 2021 opener at Houston. Jared Goff and the Rams were a -1 favorite in his first start in 2016 but that was a Week 11 game in which the Rams also lost 14-10. Vick was also a favorite in his Week 9 start in 2001 with Atlanta winning 20-13 as a -4.5-point favorite over Dallas.  There is a great deal of enthusiasm for Williams and the Bears this season and unquestionably Williams has more offensive talent around him than most #1 draft pick rookies generally have. Chicago was also 7-10 last season for a more competitive record than most teams that hold the #1 pick as that selection was acquired via a 2023 trade with the Carolina Panthers, landing in a different situation than many of the top draft picks. Chicago is priced as a -3.5-point favorite Sunday hosting the Titans as Williams and the Bears look to break the recent negative trend for #1 draft pick quarterbacks. 

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August Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

Tuesday, Aug 27, 2024

  August Starting Pitching NL Overachievers There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of August, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four National League starters which you should be cautious with supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable.  Martin Perez – San Diego Padres Martin Perez has been a useful starter for the Padres since joining the team from the Pirates in August. In five starts with San Diego, Perez has a 2.70 ERA but a 5.19 FIP as it has been a misleading run of success alongside San Diego’s great late season run in the NL West standings. Perez has still allowed six home runs in his five starts for San Diego but only eight runs in total despite allowing 22 hits in just over 26 innings of work. Only one of the five starts for Perez with San Diego has come against a likely playoff team for a favorable August path that has helped his results. Perez has a 6.3 K/9 in his career and a 4.45 ERA and there should be no expectation for his upcoming results to match his strong August returns.  Shota Imanaga – Chicago Cubs 30-year-old rookie Shota Imanaga made a huge early splash for the Cubs, going 5-0 with the Cubs 7-0 in his first seven starts. Chicago is 18-6 in Imanaga starts and the Cubs will face favorite pricing in many of his upcoming outings as Chicago looks to stay on the edge of the NL wild card conversation. Imanaga allowed 10 runs against the Mets in June to put a huge dent in his numbers but in his last six starts his ERA is 3.72 with a 5.12 FIP as he has not matched his early season pace. Imanaga has allowed nine home runs in his last six starts and his K/9 is down to just 7.9 in that run of games. Imanaga has slightly worse season numbers at home, and he hasn’t pitched more than 160 innings for Yokohama since 2019, a number he’ll likely reach by early September this season.  Nick Martinez – Cincinnati Reds After mediocre results with the Texas Rangers early in his career, Nick Martinez pitched in Japan for four seasons. Martinez returned to MLB in 2022 mostly pitching as a reliever with the Padres the past two seasons and finding some success as useful option for situational relief outings and occasional spot starts. With Cincinnati he has pitched well and was moved back to a starting role in August. After two scoreless outings in early August, Martinez has looked like a marginal starter in his last three outings as his ERA is 6.75 with a 6.54 FIP, allowing 11 runs including four home runs, while posting just eight strikeouts. Martinez has a career K/9 of 6.4 and a career HR/9 of 1.3 with a career FIP of 4.74 and that should be the expectation if the Reds keep Martinez in the rotation down the stretch.  David Peterson – New York Mets David Peterson owns an incredible 8-1 record, and the Mets are 12-3 in his starts as New York tries to stay in contact in the NL Wild Card race. Peterson has a 4.20 FIP this season next to his 2.85 ERA and his K/9 is below 7.0. His BB/9 is above 4.0 in his career, and he has had some great fortune in his 85 innings with a .278 BABIP and a strand rate of nearly 82 percent. In August Peterson has allowed only six earned runs in five starts for a 1.71 ERA but his FIP is 3.17 and his xFIP is 4.14 as a lot has gone his way in a small sample of starts that included facing three of MLB’s worst teams. 

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August Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

Tuesday, Aug 27, 2024

August Starting Pitching AL Overachievers There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of August, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four American League starters which you should be cautious with supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable.  Pablo Lopez – Minnesota Twins Pablo Lopez had a great first season for Minnesota and after going 11-8 last season he is 12-9 this season. His strikeout rate has fallen, and his ERA is significantly higher, while his FIP is also a bit higher as well. Lopez has turned in back-to-back scoreless outings in mid-August, but both came against disappointing teams and his run of improved results in August deserves some skepticism. In August he holds a 2.25 ERA but his K/9 is only 7.1 and he has allowed 23 hits in his 24 innings of work for alarming numbers. The difference has been stranding over 85 percent his baserunners in that small sample, which is not a pace he’ll likely be able to sustain down the stretch.  Jose Berrios – Toronto Blue Jays After a tough 2022 season with the Blue Jays, Berrios has earned his contract with good results in back-to-back seasons. This season his 3.79 ERA comes with a 4.97 FIP however and he is on pace for a career low strikeout rate at 7.1 K/9. Berrios is 4-1 in his five August starts, but his FIP is 4.30 next to a 2.94 ERA. He has allowed six home runs in those five starts and he has allowed 29 hits in those five starts despite keeping most baserunners from scoring. His best three starts in August came against losing teams with two of those starts at home, where Berrios has always had stronger splits. The Blue Jays have a touch schedule in early September as they will play a role in shaping the wild card races in both leagues.  Cole Ragans – Kansas City Royals Last season Cole Ragans was inconsistent but showed flashes of brilliance. He has turned in a solid 2024 season but after making the All-Star team with a 3.16 ERA in his first 20 starts, his ERA is 3.63 with a 4.18 FIP in his last seven starts. Ragans is 4-2 in decisions in those starts but he has allowed at least three runs four times. Ragans has not pitched that well at home this season with a 3.83 ERA in 82 innings at Kauffman. In August Ragans has a 4.67 FIP in 28 innings with a 4.2 BB/9 and a 1.5 HR/9, even while facing several marginal offensive teams. Ragans is already well past a career high in innings this season and as the Royals look to confirm a playoff spot, he may be held to limited innings down the stretch.  Joey Estes – Oakland Athletics Oakland has been a play-on team in recent weeks, but Joey Estes has overachieved in August, posting a 3.03 ERA. Estes has only two quality starts in August and his FIP is 4.75. His K/9 in August is below 7.0 and he has allowed six home runs but only 10 runs. Four of his five starts in August were at home and he also got to face the White Sox in that run. Estes had only 10 MLB innings to his name before this season and while it has been a successful 2024 for the 22-year-old, he was just a 16th round pick in 2019 and managed just an 8.5 K/9 in AAA last season and an 8.3 K/9 this season in six AAA starts. Oakland will be worth a look in many underdog situations down the stretch with a good bullpen but some of the other starters in the rotation may offer more potential. 

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July Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

Saturday, Jul 27, 2024

July Starting Pitching NL Overachievers There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of July, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four National League starters which you should be cautious with supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable.  Jose Quintana – New York Mets The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball in July, moving into an NL wild card position while shockingly passing up the Braves in the NL East standings, at least for a moment. The bullpen for New York has turned things around and 35-year-old Jose Quintana has been an unexpected source of success in the rotation. Quintana posted only nine MLB wins from 2020 to 2023 as he bounced around the league after posting mostly average results with the Cubs in the late 2010s, with his best seasons in 2015 and 2016 with the White Sox. Quintana’s 2024 season line is relatively average with a 4.02 ERA and a 7.1 K/9 but since mid-June he owns a 1.98 ERA. Next to that ERA is a 4.75 FIP which looks more realistic as in his last 41 innings Quintana has a .192 BABIP and an insane 99.4% strand rate. Quintana has faced the Nationals, Cubs, and Rockies in four of those seven starts to face three of the worst teams in the NL, but his current pace is not sustainable. Incredibly he has those great numbers even with a marginal 3.5 BB/9 and a high 1.5 HR/9 as Quintana’s run of success is likely to be short-lived.  Mitch Keller – Pittsburgh Pirates Keller showed some potential through rough conventional numbers in 2021 and 2022 on a struggling Pirates team before his breakthrough All-Star season last year. Keller’s strong first half deteriorated into an average season overall in 2023 and the same thing could occur in 2024. Pittsburgh’s rotation is getting a lot of attention, but Keller is a pitcher that has overachieved going 10-5 with a 3.34 ERA. His FIP is a half-run higher than that at 3.84 while his K/9 has fallen considerably compared to last season. He has a lower BABIP and a lower HR/9 this season compared with last season but over his last six starts his ERA is 3.28 with a 4.46 FIP and his K/9 has fallen even further to just 7.6. He faced losing teams including the White Sox in three of his last six starts while four of those six starts were at home where his career ERA is nearly a run lower. The Pirates are currently just above .500 and are an exciting team on the rise but Keller doesn’t deserve the valuation of the higher ceiling starters in the rotation. With Jared Jones and Bailey Falter recently hitting the IL, pressure will grow on Keller while the bullpen supporting him will face more strain as the team faces several tough upcoming road series in late July and early August.  Matt Waldron – San Diego Padres The success of Matt Waldon has come out of nowhere as he was an 18th round pick back in 2019 and mostly has struggled in his minor league climb, including posting a 3-9 record with an 8.44 ERA in AAA in 2022 and a 2-10 record with a 7.31 ERA in AAA in 2023. Waldron has a 7.7 K/9 alongside his solid 3.64 ERA, and he has pitched better on the road as his success hasn’t been a product of pitching at Petco Park. There are some cracks appearing in recent starts for Waldron however with a 3.61 ERA in his last seven starts since late June next to a 4.58 FIP. His K/9 is just barely above 7.0 in that span, and he has allowed seven home runs in his last seven starts. While Waldron has provided solid innings as the Padres look to stay in a wild card position in the crowded NL race, the team might be wise to add another starting option to the rotation at the trade deadline.  Hunter Greene – Cincinnati Reds  While he went 5-13 as a 22-year-old rookie in 2022, Hunter Greene dazzled at times with a great upside. His K/9 was 11.8 in 2022 and 12.2 last season. This season it has dipped to a still impressive 10.2, but his elevated walk rate has remained. Greene had one of the NL’s higher HR/9 rates in 2022 and 2023, but somehow this season his HR/9 is below 0.8 this season, even with no change to his groundball rate. Greene has a 3.14 ERA but a much higher FIP and while he has put together perhaps the best month of his career in recent weeks, there should be concerns about his potential to maintain that pace. Greene has allowed just two home runs in his last six starts, posting a 2.05 ERA in 35 innings. It has been a favorable draw however with four of his six starts against the Pirates, Tigers, and Rockies. His BABIP in that span is just .237 and he is about to enter August, where his worst monthly career splits have been in his young career. 

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July Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

Saturday, Jul 27, 2024

July Starting Pitching AL Overachievers There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of July, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four American League starters which you should be cautious with supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable.  Brady Singer – Kansas City Royals Brady Singer has been considered an elite talent for the Royals since being a 1st round pick in 2018. With Kansas City charging towards a playoff spot this season, Singer has put together his most complete campaign. His ERA is just 2.82 in 21 starts. His FIP is 3.81 however and the biggest difference in his numbers this season has been stranding over 83 percent of his baserunners compared to his career average of just over 72 percent. In what has been an outstanding month of July for Singer, he has stranded over 90 percent of his baserunners to produce a 1.88 ERA even with a 3.39 FIP and a 3.1 BB/9. Singer doesn’t have elite strikeout numbers and he has an extreme disparity between his home and road splits, as many Royals have this season with a great home record for Kansas City. After strong results in April and May, Singer fell back a bit in June and the deeper numbers suggest his July shouldn’t have been much different than his average results in June. Singer is likely to remain a slightly above average option for the Royals, but he may get overpriced, particularly in his home starts following the fortunate run he has been on in recent weeks.   Kutter Crawford – Boston Red Sox With a 6-8 record in just over 129 innings last season Kutter Crawford had a 4.04 ERA and a 3.83 FIP last season. In now 119 innings in 2024 Crawford has a 3.33 ERA but with a 4.24 FIP that is nearly a half-run higher than he had last season. His K/9 is lower this season while his BB/9 and HR/9 rates are higher, yet he has allowed fewer runs. Crawford has enjoyed an exceptionally charmed month of July with a 2.52 ERA but a 5.14 FIP as he has allowed six home runs in 25 innings but has kept the damage to a minimum allowing only seven earned runs with five solo shots and one two-run home run allowed. Crawford has just a 6.1 K/9 in July and he has not allowed a single baserunner to score in those 25 innings, a truly remarkable run that obviously won’t last much longer. Crawford has made three of those four starts in July on the road and his season splits are worse at home. Crawford may be worth looking to fade in upcoming Fenway Park outings as he isn’t pitching as well as his recent numbers imply.  Dean Kremer – Baltimore Orioles Going 0-7 in 13 starts for Baltimore in 2021 wasn’t a great sign for Dean Kremer’s future but he had a solid 2022 season as Baltimore started to turn the corner and then last season, he was a key piece of the rotation making 32 starts for the AL East victors. Kremer’s season 2024 season was derailed with an injury in late May, and he recently returned in July, providing four acceptable starts this month, posting three decent outings and one terrible outing for a 4.74 ERA. He lacks a quality start since his return and the Baltimore bullpen has not been as sharp as it was last season. Kremer has a 5.99 FIP since his return and he has walked 10 batters in 19 innings. Ultimately Kremer hasn’t looked like the same pitcher in 2024 as he did the past two seasons, and the Orioles should be considering what his role should be moving forward with the trade deadline nearing. With Baltimore’s great record, Kremer will still command favorite pricing in most matchups, but he has been a worse than average pitcher this season, particularly at home where he owns a 6.16 ERA. August has historically been Kremer’s best month in his career splits, but given his disjointed 2024 season, that isn’t likely to prove true this season.  Jose Soriano – Los Angeles Angels Left for dead with numerous injuries and a terrible stretch of results in April and May, the Angels have produced a winning record since June 1. The scoring numbers don’t sync with that record however, but the Angels have been competitive in division games and could prove to be a spoiler in the tight AL West race. Starting pitching has been an unexpected strength for the Angels and Jose Soriano has turned in a 3.51 ERA in 95 innings. His K/9 has fallen off a cliff compared to his numbers last season as a reliever, but he has been blessed with a .255 BABIP so far in his 2024 season. Soriano is an elite groundball producer with an over 59 percent rate this season, featuring a big jump from last season which has helped to keep his HR/9 very low in 2024. Soriano has not pitched particularly well in Anaheim however and nearly two thirds of his innings at this point in the season have been in road venues. In July Soriano has a 4.51 FIP despite a 3.57 ERA and his K/9 is below 6.8. His groundball rare has fallen and three of his four starts in July have been road starts, including games vs. Oakland and Chicago, plus a start in a favorable environment in Seattle. Soriano is still pitching for a bad team and while his 3.51 ERA looks nice, his weak strikeout potential and higher than average walk risk should make him unappealing to support in most pairings moving forward.   

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June Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

Saturday, Jun 29, 2024

There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of June, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four National League starters which you’ll likely want to likely avoid supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable.  Aaron Nola – Philadelphia Phillies It has been a comeback season for Aaron Nola, one of the NL’s top pitchers from 2017-2019 before mostly average results in the past few seasons for the Phillies. Nola has a 3.39 ERA in 101 innings so far even with his worst K/9 since his rookie season in 2015 at just 8.0. Nola has a .251 BABIP this season, matching his career low as a lot has gone right for Nola so far in 2024. Nola had great issues with home runs last season and his groundball rate continues to be much lower than in his peak seasons, yet he has survived with only 13 home runs allowed in his 16 starts so far in 2024. Nola has allowed at least three runs seven times this season and June has been by far his worst month of the 2024 season. For his career, Nola has been a worse second half pitcher and since mid-May his FIP is 4.11 with a 7.3 K/9 even while he is 4-1 in decisions.   Luis Severino – New York Mets  It has been a nice comeback season for Luis Severino, moving from the Bronx to Queens. Severino was an elite starter for the Yankees in 2017 and 2018 before injuries derailed his career but has a 3.29 ERA in 15 starts for the Mets in 2024. With a career K/9 of 9.5, Severino has been a different pitcher this season with a 7.1 K/9 and much of his success this season has been built on not allowing many home runs, while featuring a low .252 BABIP. Moving to Citi Field as his home park should improve his home run numbers but the current pace may not be sustainable. Severino’s season FIP is 3.93, in line with his career average, and Severino’s success while the Mets have returned to relevance may not last. In June Severino is 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA but with a 5.8 K/9 and a 3.91 FIP. He has faced losing teams in all four June starts so far and like many Mets pitchers before him, he has great home numbers and shaky road splits. In May Severino had a 4.97 ERA and ultimately the rest of his season is more likely to line up somewhere in-between his May and June splits rather than continuing his current recent pace of excellence.  Andrew Abbott – Cincinnati Reds Abbott has seen his K/9 fall from 9.9 last season to 7.2 this season. His HR/9 is 1.6, one of the highest in the NL yet so far this season his ERA is 3.41, nearly a half-run improvement over last season. His season FIP is 4.97 however, an alarming gap that suggests Abbott has been overachieving significantly this season. The Great American Ballpark is one of the best hitting parks in the NL and Abbott has pitched nearly 60 percent of his innings on the road at this point in the season. Abbott is 4-1 in June even as the Reds continue to post mediocre results and Abbott has only one quality start this month. Abbott has a 5.33 FIP in June compared to a 3.71 ERA and a huge red flag is that he has allowed 15 walks in fewer than 27 innings this month. Abbott is just 25 years of age, and the left-hander is an intriguing talent that may have a very bright future, but he likely hasn’t deserved his current numbers in 2024, particularly in the last month.  Jake Irvin – Washington Nationals Irvin made 24 starts last season for Washington and he is 27 years old, drafted in the 4th round back in 2018 as he is more of a journeyman than an up-and-coming prospect. He had marginal numbers last season for Washington but has improved considerably this season for a surprisingly competitive Nationals team. Irvin has cut down on his walks significantly compared to last season but the biggest difference is his HR/9 falling from 1.5 to 0.9 from last season to this season, something that is mostly luck in the small sample. Irvin has a similar K/9 and BABIP to last season and is not a high groundball rate pitcher, but he has managed to allow only nine home runs in 16 starts. Irvin has a 2.48 ERA for excellent returns in 29 innings in June 2024, but his FIP is a more realistic 3.57 in that span. His BB/9 has climbed in June while he has managed to strand nearly 88 percent of his baserunners. The Nationals have played nearly .500 ball this season to beat expectations, but it will be a long shot if Irvin finishes on the NL ERA leaderboard where he currently resides as he has the second highest FIP and the fourth lowest K/9 of the current top 12. 

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June Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

Saturday, Jun 29, 2024

There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of June, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four American League starters which you’ll likely want to likely avoid supporting moving forward after fortunate recent stretches of starting efforts on the mound that are not likely sustainable.  Michael Lorenzen – Texas Rangers The Rangers have been dealt a great deal of injuries to the pitching staff this season, but veteran Michael Lorenzen has stepped up as a solid member of the rotation. Lorenzen did throw a no-hitter last season but has a rather average career track record, mostly with the Reds before bouncing around the past few seasons. Lorenzen has a career FIP of 4.35 and his FIP this season is 4.70 yet he has produced a 3.04 ERA in 77 innings in 2024 so far. In his first five June starts Lorenzen has a 2.51 ERA, but his FIP is nearly double that at 4.90. His K/9 in those starts is just 5.7 and he has allowed five home runs in those five starts despite being 2-0 in decisions. His best start in that run was a scoreless outing against the struggling Marlins and it is hard to envision Lorenzen maintaining that pace the rest of the season.  Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers While the Tigers have disappointed this season, buried in a more competitive AL Central than most expected, it has been a breakthrough season for Tarik Skubal. A ninth round pick in 2018, Skubal struggled in his MLB appearances in 2020 and 2021 but took steps forward in abbreviated campaigns in 2022 and 2023. He is currently on pace to be an All-Star this season with a 9-3 record and a 2.32 ERA while posting great strikeout and walk rates. Skubal has commanded some more attention and is getting priced like an All-Star pitcher but his trajectory in June has been negative as his FIP is 4.05 in his last five starts and he was hit hard in a pair or road outings against Atlanta and Houston. His K/9 has fallen in June while his walk and home run rates have climbed. Skubal has only once made more than 21 starts in a season so it will be interesting to see if his arm can handle a full season workload now counted on as the staff ace, with Detroit likely to be a trade deadline seller as the support around him on the field and in the bullpen may get worse the rest of the season.   Ben Lively – Cleveland Guardians The Guardians have produced one of the best records in baseball this season and Ben Lively has been a strong contributor for the rotation. Lively has bounced around significantly in his career including three seasons in the KBO while very little in his career track record suggested that he would suddenly become a quality MLB starter at age 32. Lively has been a great story but his 3.03 ERA over 13 starts will be difficult to maintain. Lively has a 4.23 FIP and his 7.7 K/9 is quite modest by today’s standards. Lively has also managed to strand 86 percent of his baserunners this season, about 10 percent better than his career average. He has produced a 2.15 ERA at home and month-by-month this season his numbers have deteriorated slightly with June being his worst month so far this season. In five June starts Lively has a 4.29 FIP next to his 3.42 ERA and his K/9 has fallen to just 6.2. Lively also faced only one winning team in his five June starts and with Cleveland’s great record, Lively may start to command pricing that is hard to justify in the coming weeks.  Corbin Burnes – Baltimore Orioles  There is no denying that Corbin Burnes is one of MLB’s most talented pitchers and with a 2.28 ERA, his first season in Baltimore has been a success. His FIP is 3.31 however, the second highest of the past five seasons in his career and his K/9 is just 8.4, his lowest since his 38-inning first season at the MLB level. Burnes has beat his HR/9 and BB/9 rates of the past two seasons so far this season and he has an 83 percent strand rate in his 17 starts in 2024, well above his career average. Burnes is on pace for a career high in innings pitched as well and that could take a toll late in the season with Burnes only once surpassing 200 innings in his career. That was in 2022 when he wound up struggling late in the season, missing a chance at back-to-back Cy Young awards while the Brewers slipped out of the playoff picture despite leading the division for nearly three months. In his five June starts his K/9 has slipped to just 7.4 while his FIP of 3.77 towered over his 2.12 ERA. Burnes may be worth looking to fade in July and August given his workload and season splits that suggest he has not pitched quite as well as his record and ERA may suggest. 

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May Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

May Starting Pitching AL Overachievers There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of May, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four American League starters which you’ll likely want to likely avoid supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable. Triston McKenzie – Cleveland Guardians Triston McKenzie broke into the big leagues with big strikeout counts in 2020 and 2021 but so far in 2024 his K/9 is 8.5, the lowest of his career. This season and last season, walks have been a huge problem for McKenzie, including allowing 34 in just over 57 innings this season. McKenzie had a few rough April starts but he has a 3.06 ERA in six starts in May as Cleveland continues to control the AL Central. McKenzie has a 5.57 FIP in that span however and only six percent of his baserunners have scored. His BABIP is May is just .205 and while McKenzie has posted a low BABIP throughout his career, that is an exceptionally low mark. McKenzie has allowed 11 home runs in 11 starts and he has already faced the White Sox twice, in addition to facing the Athletics and Rockies for several favorable early season draws.  Marcus Stroman – New York Yankees After two solid seasons with the Cubs, Stroman received a two-year deal with the Yankees and so far the move has been a success with Stroman pitching well and the Yankees leading the AL East. Stroman’s numbers are pretty similar to the past two seasons in terms of strikeouts and walks, but his ERA is just 2.76 thanks a drop in his BABIP and a big rise in his strand rate with only 15 percent of baserunners scoring against him. A strong New York bullpen has helped to leave runners on the bases, but Stroman simply has had some good luck in the first two months of the season, particularly in May with a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts even with a weak 6.2 K/9. Stroman has stranded 94 percent of his baserunners in May, a rate that will be impossible to keep up over the rest of the season.  Michael Lorenzen – Texas Rangers A useful option as a starter or reliever and with some pinch hitting potential, Lorenzen has carried his weight bouncing around the league the past few seasons. He famously threw a no-hitter with the Phillies last August but eventually landed back in the bullpen. Due to injuries elsewhere in the rotation Lorenzen has been counted on to take regular turns in the Texas rotation and the results have been good with a 3.35 ERA in eight starts. Lorenzen has a worse than 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season and his month of May includes a 2.87 ERA but a 4.34 FIP. Lorenzen has turned in three quality starts in a row, but he has rarely had sustained runs of starting success in his career, something that isn’t likely to change at age 32. He recently left his last start with knee cramping and his season could unravel further from there.  Griffin Canning – Los Angeles Angels It has been a miserable season for the Angels but in the month of May, Griffing Canning has put together a run of five solid starts, pitching at least five innings while allowing three or fewer runs in each. He struggled mightily in April and still owns a 5.08 season ERA but in May it was just 2.60. His FIP in May was 5.30, however, seventh highest among all qualified AL starters. Canning still has poor strikeout and walk rates and few pitchers have a worse HR/9 than Canning in his career at 1.56, a rate he has even topped so far this season. Canning has only had 36 percent groundballs this season and is on pace for his worst K/9 in his career at just 6.5, compared to 9.0 in his career. Canning and the Angels won’t command strong valuations, but the recent run of success is more than likely to be short positive blip on Canning’s season.  

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