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Hot Streaks and Achievements

  • 837-693 Last 1530 FB; 231-169 NHL; 1557-1210 L2767 NBA/NCAAB; 324-261 L585 MLB
  • 185-110 NFL Prime Time; 361-275 Totals; 4119-3303 Last 7422 in All Sports
  • 12 of 13 Winning NFL Seasons; Hoops: 479-378, 2024; 503-407, 2023; 465-398, 2022; 319-247, 2021

Biography

Al McMordie is the most honored technical sports handicapper in the country, with 66 handicapping championships since 1992.

Active since:  1992

Location:  Los Angeles, CA

Al McMordie is the most honored technical sports handicapper in the country.  Overall, in the last 33 years, Big Al has garnered 66 NUMBER ONE awards in football, basketball, baseball and hockey; 244 Top 5 finishes; and 450 Top 10 finishes.  Al is a featured handicapper at the most prestigious gambling web sites, and was a panelist on The Winning Edge and Proline Television shows from 2001 through 2010.  Additionally, in 2002, Big Al was featured in FHM Magazine, and he was featured in ESPN Magazine in 2010.

Some highlights:

In 2025, Al finished #1 in NFL/NCAA Combo Football in win percentage, return on risk and net profit at SportsWatchMonitor.com.  Al ended the NFL Playoffs on a 9-0 run, and had his 12th winning NFL season of the last 13 years. 

In 2024, Al cashed his NBA Futures pick on the Boston Celtics (at 4-1 odds) to win the NBA Championship.

In 2023-24, Al was 478-377 in NBA/NCAA Hoops and ranked #1 in Combo Hoops Net Return on Risk, #1 in NBA Win Percentage, and #2 in NCAA Basketball Net Profit at SportsWatchMonitor.com.

In 2023-24, Al was #1 in the NCAA Bowls in Net Profit at SportsWatchMonitor.com, and had another winning NCAA Football season.

In 2023, Al was 503-407 in NBA/NCAA Hoops, and ranked #1 in NBA/NCAA Basketball Combined win percentage, return on risk, and net profit at SportsWatchMonitor.com (his 3rd straight year that he ranked #1 in NBA/NCAA return on risk).  Big Al also ranked #1 in NBA Playoffs win percentage, with a 37-18 record, and #3 in NCAA Basketball net profit.  And he won in the NFL for his 11th straight season.

In 2022, Big Al ranked #1 in NBA/NCAA Basketball Combined win percentage, return on risk, and net profit at SportsWatchMonitor.com, with a 469-392 record; and #3 in NBA Regular Season return on risk, with a 9.09% ROI.

In 2021, Big Al ranked #1 in NBA/NCAA Basketball Combined win percentage, with a 315-246 record; #2 in NCAA Basketball with a 157-115 record, and correctly forecast in the preseason that the Milwaukee Bucks (at 13-2 odds) and Baylor (at 12-1 odds) would win the NBA and NCAA championships, respectively.  

In 2020, Al predicted before the season that the Tampa Bay Lightning (at 7-1 odds) and Los Angeles Dodgers (at 4-1 odds ) would win their respective championships.  

In 2019, Al forecast that the Washington Nationals (at 18-1 odds) and Virginia Cavaliers (at 22-1 odds) would win championships.  

In 2018, Big Al ranked #1 in NFL Net Wins, with a 72-48 record, as documented by The Sports Monitor.  Al also correctly predicted the Golden State Warriors would win the NBA title.

And from 2012, when he also ranked #1 in the NFL with a 76.7% record on his Late Phone Service (as documented by The Sports Monitor), through 2023, Big Al’s won 11 of 12 NFL seasons.  

In 2017, Al finished #1 in the NHL, and also ranked #1 in the NHL in 2014.

In 2017, Al correctly predicted the Houston Astros (at 10-1 odds) would win the World Series.

In 2017, Al hit another NBA futures pick with Golden State (at -125) to win the championship.

In 2015, Al also finished #1 (of 1727 entrants) in the Westgate Casino NFL Mini-Contest, and #2 in NCAA Football in 2016 (at both The Sports Monitor and Handicappers Watchdog).

In 2014, Al forecast the San Antonio Spurs (at 14-1 odds) would win the NBA title.

In 2012, Al won his futures prediction on the Kentucky Wildcats (at 11-2 odds) to win the NCAA basketball championship.

In 2011, Al correctly predicted the Green Bay Packers (at 10-1 odds) would win the Super Bowl.

In 2009, Al predicted the New York Yankees (at 5-2 odds) to win the World Series.

In 2007, Big Al won the $100,000 World Series of Sports Handicapping, and also finished #1 in NCAA Basketball March Madness.

In 2004, Al won the most prestigious handicapping contest in Las Vegas -- The Stardust Invitational.

In 2000, Al was 157-114 in football, including 10-0 (100%) in the NFL Playoffs.  Al has won 25 of his 33 football seasons.  Another highlight of Al's career came in 1997, when Big Al was ranked #1 by SPORTS WATCH in NCAA Football/NFL Win Percentage, and #1 in NCAA Football Regular Season/Bowls by THE SPORTS MONITOR.  Al has one of the best basketball records over the past 32 seasons (winning 24 of 32 seasons), and was ranked #1 in baseball for the 1996 and 2001 seasons.  For consistency across all four sports, you can count on Al McMordie.

Indeed, the Las Vegas Sporting News recognized Al in its December 17, 1996 issue, and wrote that: "[Al's] honesty, integrity, [and] skills...are obvious....We have been impressed by [his] uncanny ability to pick big underdogs that win the game straight-up....We've seen handicappers come and go, and get hot and cold, but no one has been as consistent over time as McMordie, and we strongly urge you to consider him as your handicapper."

Besides being a champion handicapper, Al McMordie is a corporate attorney, and earned his undergraduate and law degrees from the University of Michigan.  Al resides in Los Angeles, California.

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NBA - Point Spread - Wed, Apr 30

BIG AL's 100% (8-0 ATS) NBA PLAYOFFS PAYOFF!

Al McMordie's 103-63 his last 166 (thru Monday). On Wednesday, Big Al's unloading on an NBA Winner out of a 100% Per...

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NBA - Point Spread - Wed, Apr 30

BIG AL's WEDNESDAY 27-12 ATS NBA ELITE INFO!

Al McMordie's on a sensational 103-63 run (thru Monday's action), and has an awesome play on Wednesday's NBA card out...

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NHL - Moneyline - Wed, Apr 30

BIG AL's NHL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE MONTH!

Al McMordie's on a red-hot 103-63 run (thru Monday), and has his NHL Playoffs Game of the Month on this Wednesday. I...

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, MLB and EPL Previews and Odds - 04/27/2025

Sunday, Apr 27, 2025

The Sunday sports card features NBA, NHL, MLB, and EPL action.The National Basketball Association continues its playoff season with four games. The Detroit Pistons host the New York Knicks on ABC at 1:05 p.m. ET as a 2-point favorite with the total set at 217 (all odds from DraftKings). The Minnesota Timberwolves play at home against the Los Angeles Lakers on ABC at 3:35 p.m. ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 209. The Boston Celtics travel to Orlando to take on the Magic on TNT at 7:05 p.m. ET as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 197. The Milwaukee Bucks are home against the Indiana Pacers on TNT at 9:35 p.m. ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 226. The National Hockey League playoffs continue with four games broadcast on TBS/TruTV/Max on its slate. The Winnipeg Jets play in St. Louis against the Blues at 1:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes are in New Jersey to challenge the Devils at 3:40 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Washington Capitals visit Montreal to play the Canadiens at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Edmonton Oilers are home against the Los Angeles Kings at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. ET. The New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays in the opening game of their doubleheader as a -192 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The New York Mets play in Washington against the Nationals as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. Three more MLB games start at 1:40 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins play at home against the Los Angeles Angels as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Cleveland Guardians are home against the Boston Red Sox as a -115 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Detroit Tigers host the Baltimore Orioles as a -198 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Houston Astros are in Kansa City to battle the Royals at 2:10 p.m. ET as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Milwaukee Brewers travel to St. Louis to take on the Cardinals at 2:15 p.m. ET with both teams priced as a money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Cincinnati Reds play in Colorado against the Rockies at 3:10 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 11. Two MLB games begin at 4:05 p.m. ET. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Texas Rangers as a -1335 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Athletics are home against the Chicago White Six as a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. Four more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET. The Atlanta Braves are in Arizona to face the Diamondbacks as a -15 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Seattle Mariners host the Miami Marlins as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The San Diego Padres play at home against the Tampa Bay Rays as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers are home against the Pittsburgh Pirates as a -310 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Yankees host the Blue Jays in the second game of their doubleheader at 4:35 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 9.Sunday Night Baseball on EPSN features the Philadelphia Phillies visit Chicago to challenge the Cubs at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Phillies are a -115 money-line road favorite.Matchweek 34 in the English Premier League continues with two matches. Bournemouth plays at home against Manchester United on the USA Network at 9:00 a.m. ET as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool is home against Tottenham at 11:30 a.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3.5. 

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NBA System of the Week

Thursday, Apr 24, 2025

The NBA Playoffs are underway, with the top three teams (Thunder, Cavaliers, Celtics) all sprinting out to 2-0 series leads.  The other five series have been more competitive, with all but one (Pacers/Bucks) sitting at 1-game-apiece.My preseason pick this season was on the Celtics to repeat as champions, and they're the #2 seed in the Eastern Conference.  Boston opened its 7-game series with a 103-86 win over Orlando (as a 12.5-point home favorite), and then followed that up with a 109-100 victory (as a 10.5-point home favorite).Boston failed to cover the point spread in its Game 2 triumph, and that leads us into this week's NBA Playoff system.What we want to do is play on any defending NBA champion on the road after failing to cover the spread in a home playoff game.Since 1991, our system has gone 46-17, 73% ATS.The Celtics have been installed as a 5.5-point road favorite in Game 3, on Friday.Consider laying the points.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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How to Play the Play-In Tourney

Thursday, Apr 17, 2025

The NBA's Play-In Tournament is ongoing.  Golden State and Orlando have punched their tickets to the post-season, and will each be seeded #7 in their respective conference.  Still to be decided are the #8 seeds.  This Friday, Miami will visit Atlanta, while Dallas will travel to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies.As of this writing, on Thursday morning, Atlanta has been installed as a 1-point favorite, with an Over/Under line of 220.  And the Grizzlies are favored by 6.5 points, with an Over/Under line of 223.This is the 5th season of the Play-In Tournament, so we're beginning to get some data under our belt.One thing which has emerged is that the favorites have excelled in these games that decide the #8 seed, with a 7-1 ATS record.  Here, Memphis is a clear favorite, while it's unclear which team will close as the favorite in the Atlanta/Miami game.The other thing is that these games that decide the #8 seed tend to be relatively low-scoring, and have gone 6-2 under the total.  I would expect that trend to continue, as NBA Playoff (or Play-In) games where BOTH teams stand to be eliminated with a loss have gone under the total 56.5% since 1990.  Consider playing the unders in the Hawks/Heat and Grizzlies/Mavericks games.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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NBA System of the Week

Thursday, Mar 27, 2025

Sports handicappers have many tools in their toolbox that they use to get an edge on the bookmakers.  When I handicap the NBA, I like to look at things like margin of victory, points scored, home/road statistics, won/loss percentages, and so forth.  Another thing I will often look at is the series history between the two teams, with a particular focus on which team won the previous meeting, and by how many points.Tonight, we have a nice situation in the NBA.  The Los Angeles Lakers will be in Chicago to face the Bulls, who just walloped L.A. at Staples Center five days ago, 146-115.  And what made that loss even more remarkable was that the Lakers were favored by 10.5 points, yet lost by 31.I consulted my trusty NBA Database (which was written up in ESPN Magazine on December 13, 2010), and researched how teams do when playing with revenge from such a big defeat earlier in the season.  And here's what I found.  Teams playing with revenge from a same-season loss by 30 or more points do quite well provided two other factors were present.  First, our revenge-minded team need to be the favorite.  And, second, our opponent needed to be off a SU/ATS win.  In that situation, our revengers have gone 73-46-1 ATS since 1990.Let's look deeper at our Chicago Bulls/Los Angeles Lakers match-up tonight.  The Lakers played last night, so there's always a chance they might rest players.  However, currently, both Luka Doncic and LeBron James are expected to suit up, and L.A. is a 4-point favorite at Circa Sportsbook.  That's good, since our revenger does need to be the favorite.  Next, we need the Bulls to be off a SU/ATS win.  And, indeed, they are, as they defeated Denver, 129-119, in their previous game.NBA System of the Week:  Play on a favorite with revenge from a loss earlier in the season by 30 or more points, if its opponent is off a SU/ATS win. Tonight's play:  Los Angeles Lakers -4Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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MLB Futures Selection: Los Angeles Dodgers to Win the 2025 World Series

Thursday, Mar 13, 2025

For the 2025 Major League Baseball season, our Futures selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the World Series.  Currently, the best odds are at BetRivers, at +260.  Some have called them one of the greatest rosters ever assembled and while that may prove to be a bit of an exaggeration, there's no denying the talent that the Dodgers possess heading into the 2025 season.  Whether or not they prove to be another 1998 New York Yankees, the Dodgers enter the season as strong favorites to win it all.  And it starts with the NL West where the chief competition should once again come from the Padres and Diamondbacks.  But as nice as those teams are, they will likely prove no match for L.A.  If the eventual planned six-man rotation can stay healthy most of the time, then the Dodgers should cruise into the playoffs.   Not only did the Dodgers land the top player from Japan for the second consecutive year -- RHP Roki Sasaki -- but the aforementioned six-man rotation should allow L.A. to reduce the workloads of its other studs, namely Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, and a now-healthy Gonsolin, while working Kershaw and Ohtani back in as starters, if needed.  But it's not all about starting pitching for the MLB favorites.  The core of a very good veteran offense returns as Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Tommy Edman, and Will Smith are still around while HR Derby champ Teoscar Hernandez signed a new three-year deal during the off-season.  They've also added a solid veteran presence in OF Michael Conforto.  If there's a question mark for the Dodgers, it's with the closer role.  But that's something that should be easily addressed as the season goes on with a group of solid veteran arms in the bullpen including Tanner Scott, Kirby Yates, and Blake Treinen.   The D-Backs may have landed Corbin Burnes, and the Padres Nick Pivetta, but it simply isn't enough to overcome the immense talent gap between those teams and the Dodgers.  L.A. should easily capture another division pennant that will allow it to utilize that six-man rotation in September and rest those valuable arms for the playoffs.  As for the other MLB divisions, the biggest challenges will likely come from the Phillies and Mets, but those teams have been known to choke in the post-season on multiple occasions.  And even on their best day they are still a notch below the Dodgers (and a big notch at that).  It should also be mentioned that the early AL favorite -- the Yankees -- have received horrible news this Spring with the losses of Gerrit Cole, Luis Gil, and Giancarlo Stanton.  And in Cole's case, it's surgery and he's done for the season.  Take the Dodgers to win the 2025 World Series at +260.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

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NBA System of the Week

Monday, Feb 24, 2025

The NBA returned from its All-Star Break last week.  And I like using the break as a means to generate some plays.  Indeed, I have several systems that involve situations going into, and coming out of the break.One of my systems plays on teams that get off to a slow start following the long layoff.  What I like to do is play on any NBA team in its 3rd game after the All-Star Break which was off three SU/ATS losses.  These teams have rolled to a 34-19 ATS record since 1990, including 30-12 ATS if they were not favored by more than four points.This season, one team fits the bill, and it's the Philadelphia 76ers, who are favored by four points tonight, at home, vs. the Chicago Bulls.  Philly is currently riding a seven-game SU/ATS losing streak, which commenced five games before the All-Star Break.Consider playing on the 76ers tonight.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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NCAA Basketball System of the Week

Wednesday, Feb 19, 2025

I love handicapping NCAA Basketball.  And one of the reasons is that it is a relatively-long season (with most teams playing at least 30 regular season games), but not too long (like MLB, NBA or NHL) where the regular season games can become a bit meaningless.  And this schedule provides a situational handicapper like myself a ton of money-making opportunities along the way.One thing I like to do is play on certain teams on long losing streaks, or against certain teams on long winning streaks, as eventually these streaks will come to an end.  But sometimes, we'll also have a good situation immediately after a streak ends.  For example, when a college basketball team has won at least 10 games in a row, and then finally loses, I also like to fade that team off that loss.  Indeed, since 1990, NCAA Basketball teams are a poor 344-407-15 (45.8% ATS) off a straight-up loss, if they had won at least their 10 previous games going into that defeat.But even though there's nothing wrong with 407-344, we can improve our numbers greatly by filtering out opponents that are off a SU/ATS win.  With those games excepted, our 407-344 stat moves to 280-197-12 (58.7% ATS).  Finally, we can bring our system above the 60% mark by limiting our plays to underdog of +6 (or more) points.  In that situation, our angle zooms to 180-108-6 (62.5% ATS) since 1990.  So, our NCAA System of the Week is to play against a favorite of -6 (or more) points off a loss, if it won its 10 games prior to that defeat, and its opponent is not off a SU/ATS win.On this Wednesday, we have a team to play against, and that's the Drake Bulldogs.  Drake was on an 11-game winning streak before losing to Bradley, 61-59, as a 5.5-point home favorite three days ago.  The Bulldogs are now laying 10.5 points to Illinois-Chicago, which won, but failed to cover the spread vs. Missouri State last Sunday.  Don't be surprised if Drake does not bounce back tonight off its upset loss.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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NFL System of the Week

Friday, Jan 24, 2025

The NFL Playoffs resume this weekend with two match-ups of teams that already faced one another this season.  And, in the NFC Championship game, it will be the 3rd meeting of the season between NFC East division rivals.As a handicapper, I often look to previous meetings when I handicap a game.  Sometimes, that prior meeting might lead me to take a revenge-minded team.  Other times, I may play on a team because of its dominance in the series.  Here, though, we are going to focus on the Over/Under.The Commanders and Eagles second meeting this season was just five weeks ago, and the Commanders upset the Eagles, 36-33, as a 4.5-point home underdog.  The Over/Under line for that game was 47 points.This Sunday, the Eagles are a 6-point home favorite, with an O/U line of 47.5 points.What may jump out to many is the fact that the most recent meeting was an unusually high-scoring game, with 69 total points.  Some may be inclined to play on this weekend's game Over the total because of that 69-point game.  But be careful, as sporting events tend to not follow a well-worn script.  And our NFL System of the Week does, indeed, forecast a low-scoring game, as it says to play the UNDER in games between two teams whose previous meeting in the same season totaled 68 (or more) points.  Since 1980, there have been 130 such match-ups.  And the UNDER has gone 77-50-3.  Even better:  if the O/U line was greater than 47 points (as it is in this Eagles/Commanders game), then our 77-50-3 stat zooms to 24-10-2 UNDER.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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NFL System of the Week

Friday, Jan 17, 2025

The NFL Playoffs resume Saturday, with the Washington Commanders visiting the Detroit Lions, and the Houston Texans traveling to Kansas City to face the Chiefs.  On Sunday, the match-ups are even better.  The Los Angeles Rams will take on the Philadelphia Eagles, while the weekend's best game pits the Baltimore Ravens against the Buffalo Bills.As a situational and technical handicapper, I review dozens of metrics.  Everything from scoring margin to yards per rush to a series history.  One thing often overlooked by bettors is a team's schedule.  And that will be the focus of our NFL System of the Week.When the Commanders travel to the Motor City, it will mark their 3rd straight game on the road.  Last week, Washington defeated the Buccaneers, 23-20, in Tampa Bay.  And they played the Cowboys in Dallas to end the regular season.Over the last 45 years, NFL teams playing their 3rd straight road game have been horrible against the point spread, with a record of 132-168-4 ATS.  And it hasn't mattered whether they've been underdogs (96-124-2 ATS) or favorites (34-42-2 ATS).  Or whether it was a regular season game (105-124-1 ATS) or a playoff game (27-44-3 ATS).We saw this angle come into play last week in the Wild Card Round game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Houston Texans.  Los Angeles was playing its 3rd straight road game, and lost outright as a 2.5-point road favorite, 32-12.  This week, the Texans are an 8.5-point underdog vs. the Chiefs.  And it's worth noting that underdogs (like Houston) priced from +6.5 to +9.5 in the NFL Playoffs, that were playing their 3rd straight road game, have gone 4-17-1 ATS since 1980.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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NBA on Christmas Day: 35 Years of Betting Data

Wednesday, Dec 25, 2024

Christmas Day is the NBA's signature television event (apart from the Playoffs), and features match-ups between the league's elite and/or popular teams.   This season, we will be treated to five games (all odds courtesy of BetAnySports):San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks (Knicks -8.5, 222.5)Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks (Mavericks -5.5, 221.5)Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (Celtics -8.5, 221)Los Angeles Lakers at Golden State Warriors (Warriors -4.5, 221.5)Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns (Nuggets -2.5, 232.5)Let's take a look at the data for Christmas Day games, dating back to December 25, 1990.Home teams:  61-53-1 ATSAway teams:  53-61-1 ATSFavorites:  60-53-1 ATSUnderdogs:  53-60-1 ATSDouble-digit Faves:  4-5 ATSDouble-digit Dogs:  5-4 ATSRevenge-minded Teams:  20-24 ATSOvers:  53-58-4 Unders:  58-53-4Teams off Win (vs. Foes off Loss):  22-30-1 ATSTeams off Loss (vs. Foes off Win):  30-22-1 ATSTeams off ATS Win (vs. Foes not off ATS Win):  29-36-1 ATSTeams off ATS Loss (vs. Foes not off ATS Loss:  36-28-1 ATSTeams off Upset Win (vs. Foes not off Upset Win):  8-10 ATSTeams off Upset Loss (vs. Foes not off Upset Loss):  25-17-1 ATSTeams off Back-to-Back Wins (vs. Foes not off Back-to-Back Wins):  23-29-1 ATSTeams off Back to Back Losses (vs. Foes not off Back-to-Back Losses):  16-14 ATSFrom this data, we can see that there might be an edge in playing teams off losses against foes off wins.  Since 1990, those teams have gone 30-22-1 ATS.  This year, there are four teams that fit the bill:  Spurs +8.5, Timberwolves +5.5, Celtics -8.5, and Suns +2.5).  Notably, home teams have done much better than road teams in this set of 53 games.  Home teams have gone 16-9 ATS, while road teams are just 14-13-1.  The home teams off a loss this season that are playing a road team off a win are:  Celtics -8.5 and Suns +2.5.  And if we break our 16-9 ATS set down further to Home Dogs and Home Favorites, we find they both have been profitable.  Home Dogs on Christmas Day off a loss have gone 6-4 ATS vs. foes off a win, while Home Favorites off a loss have gone 9-5 ATS vs. foes off a win (and Home PK'em teams have gone 1-0 ATS).Consider taking the Celtics and Suns on this Christmas Day.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Play NBA Knockout Round Games Under

Tuesday, Dec 17, 2024

The 2nd Annual NBA Cup concludes tonight with the Milwaukee Bucks taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder, in Las Vegas, Nevada.  The Thunder have been installed as a 5-point favorite, and the Over/Under is 216.5 (all odds courtesy of BetAnySports).There have been 133 games (120 Group Play; 13 Knockout Round) played in this in-season tournament , so there's admittedly not yet a ton of data.  When one looks at all 253 games, we get the following:Home Teams:  68-57-3 ATSRoad Teams:  57-68-3 ATSOvers:  65-67-1Unders:  67-65-1Favorites:  65-65-3 ATSUnderdogs:  65-65-3 ATSRevenge-minded Teams:  24-29-1 ATSOff Win (vs Foe off Loss):  37-33-3 ATSOff Upset Loss (vs Foe not off Upset Loss):  23-12-1 ATSOff Upset Win (vs Foe not off Upset Win):  25-22-1 ATSOff SU/ATS Win (vs Foe not off SU/ATS Win):  41-33-3 ATSOff SU/ATS Loss (vs Foe not off SU/ATS Loss):  34-28-3 ATSThere is, however, one trend emerging that bears watching.  And that relates specifically to Knockout Round games.  After the 30 teams participate in the Group Play games, the eight teams with the best records move on to the Knockout Round.  The Knockout Round games are single-elimination games.  In this respect, they're similar to an NBA Playoff game or a Play-in Tournament game, where at least one team faces elimination.Coming into tonight's NBA Cup Championship game, there have been 13 Knockout Round games played.  And 10 of the 13 have gone Under the total, including both games (Bucks/Hawks; Thunder/Rockets) played this past Saturday.  The reason this trend bears watching is that the Under has also cashed in other types of NBA elimination games.  Since the 1990-91 season, NBA Playoff elimination games have gone Under 407-349-13.  And elimination games in the Play-in Tournament have also seen the Under prevail, with a 9-6-1 mark.  Combined, then, with our 10-3 Under record in Knockout Round games, we have an aggregate record of 426-358-14 Under (54.3%) for any type of elimination game.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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NCAA Basketball Futures Selections: Duke to Win the 2025 Championship

Friday, Nov 01, 2024

The Connecticut Huskies' reign of dominance will likely end this season, as only Alex Karaban returns from last year's starting five.  Still, UConn is ranked #3 in the preseason Associated Press poll.  Besides the Huskies, the AP's Top 10 consists of #1 Kansas, #2 Alabama, #4 Houston, #5 Iowa State, #6 Gonzaga, #7 Duke, #8 Baylor, #9 North Carolina and #10 Arizona.The 2025 Championship odds reflect how wide open this season will be.  Here are the current odds at FanDuel for the leading contenders:Kansas:  10-1Connecticut:  10-1Duke:  10-1Alabama:  13-1Houston:  16-1Gonzaga:  20-1Baylor:  20-1North Carolina:  20-1Auburn:  25-1Iowa State:  30-1Arizona:  30-1Arkansas:  30-1Kentucky:  35-1Creighton:  40-1Tennessee:  50-1UCLA:  50-1BYU:  55-1Purdue:  55-1Indiana:  55-1Rutgers:  55-1Michigan:  55-1St. Johns:  55-1Florida:  55-1Ohio State:  55-1Texas Tech:  55-1Illinois:  55-1I'm going to go with Jon Scheyer's Duke Blue Devils as my preseason pick, at 10-1 odds, to win the 2025 National Championship.  (Last season, my pick (Purdue at 15-1 odds) fell one game short, as it lost to UConn in the title game.)It was always going to be a tough act to follow in legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski's footsteps, but Scheyer has done well, even if he has not won a national title.  His teams have gone 54-18, and reached the Elite Eight round last season, before being eliminated by DJ Burns and the NC State Wolfpack.  This season, Duke will be led by phenom Cooper Flagg, who will likely be the NBA's #1 draft pick next June.  And, beyond Flagg, Scheyer has recruited five other highly-rated freshmen, including sharpshooter Kon Knueppel (currently projected to go as high as #6 in the 2025 NBA Draft) and 7'2" center, Khaman Maluach, the #4 prospect in this year's incoming freshman class (who is projected to be drafted #8). Although there will no doubt be hoopla throughout Flagg's season, the staff at Duke will be able to handle all the distractions.  After all, the players who have called Durham home include the likes of Zion Williamson, Paolo Banchero, Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum.  Scheyer will be able to handle the incredible attention that will no doubt come.There are many who will shy away from betting on teams loaded with "one-and-dones" to win the championship.  But I love the talent on this Blue Devils team and believe it will be playing its best basketball toward the end of the season after the freshmen have been able to find their footing.  I also like the veteran players that Scheyer has brought in through the transfer portal, like ex-Purdue Boilermaker, Mason Gillis (6.5 ppg), and ex-Syracuse Orange, Maliq Brown (9.5 ppg, 7.2 rpg), as well as the Duke holdovers in the backcourt, Tyrese Proctor (10.5 ppg, 3.7 apg) and Caleb Foster (7.7 ppg).Take Duke to win the National Championship.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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2024 Breeders' Cup Preview

Friday, Nov 01, 2024

If there's one thing that's become evident when the pre-entries for the 2024 Breeders Cup -- to be held November 1 & 2 at Del Mar Race Track -- were announced, it's that this is finally the international event that many had perhaps envisioned 41 years ago when it began.  Friday and Saturday, there are a total of 80 international horses entered -- 20 more than the previous record last year.  And a record five continents -- Asia, Europe, Africa, and North and South America -- are represented by those 80 entrants.  The Europeans will be closely watched in the Turf (grass) races, but perhaps the biggest spotlight will shine on the Japanese runners this year -- 19 in all.  On the American side of things, there may not be a Cody's Wish this year (there likely will never be another fairy tale like that one) but there are plenty of other stories surrounding the best that the U.S.A. has to offer.  To that end, we present a preview of five of the Breeders Cup races:   Breeders Cup Juvenile (race 9 on Friday)The Juvenile is the year's biggest showcase for the potential Kentucky Derby horses of the following Spring as it's typically contested at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt track.  Because a lot of trainers don't like to ship their young horses too far to compete when they're two years old, the Breeders Cup Juvenile tends to feature horses that have been racing on one coast or the other.  This year is no exception, as the East Coast 2YOs feature three undefeated runners in East Avenue, Chancer McPatrick, and Jonathan's Way facing off against three local contenders courtesy of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.  You might think that those three -- Citizens Bull, Gaming, and Getaway Car -- would have a "home field advantage," but that may not be the case this year.  And it's interesting to note that in 2023, when this event was held at nearby Santa Anita just up the road in L.A., the California horses basically got shut out and didn't win a single race.  This year could be more of the same and in the case of the Juvenile, it appears that those three East Coast horses are just faster and have a decided advantage over the rest of the field.  In the past we've seen some big prices in the Juvenile, and for good reason as these are horses with the least amount of racing experience so upsets are common.  But our advice on this occasion is not to get too fancy and stick with likely favorites Chancer McPatrick and East Avenue (and possibly Jonathan's Way if you want a better price) on the win bets and multi-race wagers.     Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (race 10 on Friday)Here is the European two-year-old horses chance to shine.  This race -- contested at 1 mile on the grass -- usually sees about half of the runners coming from European countries (England, Ireland, and France mostly).  And in many cases, one of those horses beats the best American Juvenile turf runners and at very nice odds.  So it usually doesn't make sense to play one of the favorites in this race.  Give some of the Euros with the more unestablished trainers -- like Hugo Palmer's The Waco Kid -- a look at what could be a very good price.  The European Juveniles typically carry much more weight when they race overseas, and in the case of The Waco Kid, he will have only 122 pounds on his back in this race, vs. close to 130 when he ran in Britain.  There is also an intriguing undefeated Japanese invader named Santono Carnaval but it's probably best to avoid this runner at what will likely be lower odds.  He's a sprinter stretching out for the first time and there's no way to know if he's going to take to the Del Mar turf.  The American runner with the best chance is probably Chad Brown's undefeated colt, Zulu Kingdom.  If you have to bet a domestic horse in this race, Brown's 2YO is a standout but he will be a short price   Breeders Cup Turf Sprint (race 5 on Saturday)This race is always a lot of fun and tends to be dominated by American runners who get to the lead as soon as the gate opens.  U.S. based trainer Wesley Ward has been a fixture with the Turf Sprint recently, winning it in 2021 and winning back-to-back Juvenile versions in 2020 and 2021.  So it's strange to see this race go off without a Ward horse in the starting gate this year.  But it's one of the only races on the two day menu with a clear-cut, odds-on favorite in Steve Asmussen's Cogburn.  The five-year-old has had just three races in 2024 but all three have been lights out and he's won them easily.  This race isn't always run at 5 furlongs but it is at Del Mar and that should increase Cogburn's chances as if he gets out of the gate cleanly and gets to the front, he has proven nearly impossible to run down.  But the race isn't without closers as well and two horses that should be running at Cogburn late are Big Invasion and local favorite Motorious who is a perfect 3 for 3 on this track at this distance.  But if you're looking to take a stand with a single in the multi-race wagers, then Cogburn is probably your best bet   Breeders Cup Classic (race 8 on Saturday)In many ways, this will be a different Classic than we've seen in a long time.  First, there's the fact that for TV purposes, the Breeders Cup agreed to put the marquee event of the two days as the 8th race on Saturday with four additional Breeders Cup races after it.  It will be strange to have the biggest celebration of the day not near the end but that's television for you.  Then there is the amazing variety of runners who will be saddling up this year.  In addition to three extremely talented Japanese runners -- one who almost won the Kentucky Derby back in May -- there's a British star -- City of Troy -- who his very experienced trainer calls the best horse he's ever trained.  Then there's a horse who specializes in races at 1 1/2 miles (and longer) on the dirt and who has won his last six races by a combined total of almost 90 lengths.  Horses like this almost never try the Classic at 1 1/4 miles because it's just too short for them and the quality of early speed in this race usually presents a problem.  But William Cowan, the trainer of Next figures that this is the time to take a shot, and anyone who's interested in storylines for the Classic is glad he did.  But if you want to find a winner, you probably need to look at the three Japanese runners -- Derma Sotogake, Forever Young, and Ushba Tesoro.  While the American Thoroughbred line appears to be getting weaker with each season, the Japanese dirt horses are getting stronger and stronger to the point where they almost won the Derby (Forever Young) and finished second in this race last year (Derma Sotogake).  It's only a matter of time before they're beating us at our own game.  And that time could be now.   Breeders Cup Dirt Mile (race 12 on Saturday)The Dirt Mile is one of the more interesting races in the two day Breeders Cup Menu.  Considered a kind of "baby Classic" the Dirt mile often gets some very talented entrants who would otherwise run in the Classic but for a variety of reasons (the length of the race, the field size, etc.) opt for the shorter one mile distance over the 1 1/4 miles.  Depending on the track, the Dirt Mile might be run around one turn, but in the case of Del Mar, it is a two turn race, and that can pose some problems for horses who specialize more in seven furlong sprints around one turn.  One of the most intriguing horses in this year's installment of the Dirt Mile is the Chilean Import, Mufasa.  A relative newcomer to American racing, he has looked ultra-impressive in his most recent races, both at seven furlongs -- in fact breaking the track record at Colonial Downs in one of those.  The seven furlong races may cause many people to dismiss Mufasa at the windows, but his races in Chile -- all at further distances -- indicate that he should have no problem with the mile or the two turns.  Leading jockey Iran Ortiz should be aboard for the ride.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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2025 NBA Championship Futures Selection

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024

The 2024-25 NBA season will tip-off on Tuesday.  So, it's that time of the year where I pull out my crystal ball to forecast this upcoming season's champion.  Last season, I tabbed the Boston Celtics, at 4-1 odds, and was rewarded in June when Boston hoisted the Larry O'Brien Trophy.  That was an NBA record-18th championship for the storied franchise (one more than their rival, the Lakers).  And they'll look to put more distance between themselves and the Lakers this season.The Celtics are currently the favorite, with odds of +325 at BetMGM.  Other leading contenders include the Oklahoma City Thunder (+500), New York Knicks (+675), Philadelphia 76ers (+1000), Denver Nuggets (+1100), Minnesota Timberwolves (+1200), Dallas Mavericks (+1200) and the Milwaukee Bucks (+1400) (all odds courtesy of BetMGM).Last season, the Celtics had a scoring margin in the regular season of +11.34.  Dating back to 1990, only two other NBA teams had scoring margins greater than 11.34.  In the 1995-96 season, the Bulls outscored their foes by 12.24 ppg.  And then, in 2016-17, the Golden State Warriors' margin of victory was 11.63.  Boston retained all the key pieces from last year's title-winning team, so I don't expect much, if any, of a drop-off -- at least in the post-season.  Though it is certainly possible that the Celtics underperform in the regular season, much like Golden State did in the above-referenced 2017-18 season after winning the 2017 title (the Warriors' wins dropped from 67 to 58 that season).  Still, the 2018 Warriors and 1997 Bulls did win a title for the 2nd straight year following their historic campaigns.It's true that off-season acquisitions were made by the Knicks (Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges) and 76ers (Paul George), in particular, to try to close the talent gap between themselves and their Atlantic division rival.  But I don't think they've done nearly enough to change the result come the post-season.  We'll take Boston at +325 to win the 2025 NBA Title.Good luck, as always....Al McMordie

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2025 NHL Stanley Cup Futures Selection

Monday, Oct 07, 2024

Our futures selection to win the 2025 NHL Stanley Cup is the Edmonton Oilers at +850 odds (FanDuel).  If you look up the term "roller coaster season" in the dictionary, you will likely find the 2023-2024 Oilers.  They opened the season with an 8-1 loss to the Canucks and you could argue that things went downhill from there.  By early November, star player Connor McDavid was on the shelf with an injury and they had sunk to 31st in the league with a 2-9-1 record which resulted in the firing of skipper Jay Woodcroft.  Woodcroft was replaced by Kris Knoblach and, after some adjustments, the Oilers completely turned things around and had a stretch of epic proportions, winning 24 of 27 games.  The turnaround would eventually take Edmonton all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals where it stormed back from a 3-0 deficit in games to almost pull off the impossible.  But the Oilers succumbed in the end in a Game 7 by a single goal.  That should be enough to ensure that the Oilers come into this season as hungry as ever.  And with a bunch of injuries seemingly behind them, the poor start of last season should not be repeated.   Fans may have wanted the Oilers to add a goalie in the off-season, but Knoblach and the front office seem to be happy with #1 Stuart Skinner who turned his season around late and could be ready to really break out in his age-26 season.  There are little worries about the offense which should be one of the best in the league once again, led by McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard and the recently-added Jeff Skinner, who signed a free-agent contract with Edmonton in July.  With McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard all set to receive new contracts in the next couple of years, the time is now for this team to win its first title since 1990.  Take the Oilers at +850 (FanDuel) to win the Stanley Cup.  As always, good luck...Al McMordie. 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL and MLB Previews and Odds - 09/23/2024

Monday, Sep 23, 2024

The Monday sports card features NFL and MLB action. Week 3 in the NFL concludes with two games. The Buffalo Bills host the Jacksonville Jaguars on ESPN at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Bills are 2-0 on the season after their 31-10 upset victory at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog on September 12th. The Jaguars are winless after their first two games after an 18-13 upset loss at home to Cleveland as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. Buffalo is a 5.5-point favorite with the total set at 45.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Cincinnati Bengals play at home against the Washington Commanders on ABC at 8:15 p.m. ET. The Bengals have stumbled out to an 0-2 start after their 26-25 loss at Kansas City as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday. The Commanders evened their record at 1-1 with a 21-18 victory against the New York Giants as a 1-point favorite last week. Cincinnati is a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 46.5.Major League Baseball has four games on its schedule. The Philadelphia  Phillies are at home against the Chicago Cubs at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Phillies lost for the fourth time in their last five games after their 2-1 loss in New York against the Mets last night. They are in first place in the NL East with a five-game lead over Atlanta entering the final week of the regular season. The Cubs won for the third time in their last four games with their 5-0 victory at home against Washington on Sunday. They have been eliminated from the postseason. Aaron Nola takes the ball for Philadelphia to pitch against Nate Pearson for Chicago. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox at 7:07 p.m. ET. The Blue Jays are on a four-game losing streak after their 4-3 loss at Tampa Bay yesterday. They have been eliminated from the American League playoff race. The Red Sox are on a two-game winning streak after an 8-1 victory against Minnesota on Sunday. They remain technically alive in the AL wildcard race but need to make up six games. Toronto taps Chris Bassitt to face Boston’s Tanner Houck. The Red Sox are a -120 money-line favorite with a total of 8.The Houston Astros play at home against the Seattle Mariners at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Astros’ three-game winning streak came to an end on Sunday after a 9-8 loss at home to the Los Angeles Angels. They are in first place in the AL West with a five-game lead over the Mariners. Seattle is on a two-game losing streak after their 6-5 loss at Texas yesterday. Hunter Brown gets the ball for Houston to challenge Bryce Miller for the Mariners. The Astros are a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Arizona Diamondbacks are at home against the San Francisco Giants at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks have lost two games in a row after their 10-9 loss at Milwaukee yesterday. They are tied with the New York Mets for the final two spots in the NL wildcard race with a two-game lead over Atlanta. The Giants have won four games in a row and six of their last seven contests after their 2-0 victory at Kansas City on Sunday. They have been eliminated from the postseason. Arizona sends out Eduardo Rodriguez to battle San Francisco’s Hayden Birdsong. The Diamondbacks are a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 9.

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NCAA Football System of the Week

Friday, Sep 20, 2024

The Florida State Seminoles were ranked #10 in the Associated Press poll to start the season, but have started the season 0-3.  They lost in Dublin, Ireland, 24-21, as a 10.5-point favorite vs. Georgia Tech to kick off the season.  Then, Boston College upset them, 28-13, as a 16.5-point underdog.  And last week, FSU suffered its 3rd straight upset defeat when Memphis went into Tallahassee, and won, 20-12, as a 6.5-point dog.This Saturday, Florida State will look to break into the win column with a victory against California, which is playing its first ACC Conference game.  The Bears are 3-0 this season, with wins over Cal Davis (31-13), Auburn (21-14) and San Diego State (31-10).Florida State has been installed as a 2.5-point home favorite.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab the points with the 3-0 Bears vs. the 0-3 Seminoles.  But be careful.  The games that often look the easiest turn out to be anything but.  And that leads us to our NCAA Football System of the Week.  Not surprisingly, it is a contrarian system.  Since 1980, home teams on a 3-game (or worse) losing streak have gone 55-38 ATS in FBS games vs. foes on a 3-game (or better) win streak, if our home team wasn't getting more than 6 points.Consider playing on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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NFL Futures Wager: San Francisco 49ers to Win the 2025 Super Bowl

Tuesday, Sep 03, 2024

The San Francisco 49ers had a tumultuous offseason.  Both Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams demanded to have their contracts re-negotiated.  Aiyuk signed a 4-year extension worth $120 million last week.  And then, today, Trent Williams agreed to a 3-year 82.66 million deal.  With those two key players in the fold, I'll pull the trigger on San Francisco to win the Super Bowl.  The current odds are +625 at Caesars Sportsbook.Last season, San Francisco lost the Super Bowl, in overtime, to Kansas City.  The 49ers might have won that game, but for coach Kyle Shanahan's perplexing (and mathematically incorrect) decision to receive the ball first in the overtime session, after the 49ers won the coin toss.This season, the two favorites are Kansas City and San Francisco.  The Chiefs' odds (+575) are slightly shorter than the 49ers' odds, and I agree with the oddsmakers that they should be the two favorites.  The primary reason is that each team plays in a relatively-weak division, which reduces the strength of their schedule.  I don't believe any of the other teams in the AFC West (Chargers, Raiders, Broncos) will make the playoffs.  And in the NFC West, only the Rams will be in contention.  So, the Chiefs and 49ers stand a good chance to have the most wins in their conference, and thereby earn the all-important Bye into the quarterfinal round of the Playoffs.Importantly, the 49ers will play most of their difficult opponents at home.  This season, San Francisco has 6 games against the teams I rank as the 10 strongest (not including San Francisco):  Jets, Chiefs, Cowboys, Packers, Bills and Lions.  Only the games vs. Green Bay and Buffalo are on the road.  In contrast, the Detroit Lions -- who I rank as the 2nd strongest NFC team -- have 4 of their 6 toughest games on the road (Cowboys, Packers, Texans and 49ers).  It's certainly possible that the #1 seed in the NFC Conference will be determined by the Week 17 Monday Night game between the 49ers and Lions.  And the fact that the game will be played at Levi's Stadium, in Santa Clara -- where the 49ers have won 21 of their last 25 games -- provides an edge to the 49ers.Take San Francisco at +625 odds to win the 2025 Super Bowl.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, MLB and CFL Previews and Odds - 08/23/2024

Friday, Aug 23, 2024

The Friday sports card features NFLX, MLB, and CFL action.The NFL preseason's Week 3 continues with three games. The Jacksonville Jaguars travel to Atlanta to play the Falcons on the NFL Network at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 7-point road favorite with the total set at 35.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Miami Dolphins at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 37.5. The San Francisco 49ers play in Las Vegas against the Raiders on the NFL Network at 10:00 p.m. ET as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 32. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Pittsburgh Pirates play at home against the Cincinnati Reds on Apple TV+ at 6:40 p.m. ET as a -120 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Houston Astros are in Baltimore to play the Orioles as a -118 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The New York Yankees are at home against the Colorado Rockies as a -290 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Toronto Blue Jays host the Los Angeles Angels at 7:07 p.m. ET as a -192 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Three MLB games start at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Arizona Diamondbacks as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Cleveland Guardians are at home against the Texas Rangers as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Chicago Cubs plays in Miami against the Marlins as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals at 7:20 p.m. ET as a -265 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. Three MLB games begin at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Kansas City Royals play at home against the Philadelphia Phillies as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Minnesota Twins are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Detroit Tigers are in Chicago to play the White Sox as a -162 money-lien road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Two MLB games start at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Brewers visit Oakland to play the A’s as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The San Diego Padres host the New York Mets as a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. Two games complete the MLB card at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Seattle Mariners play at home against the San Francisco Giants as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers are at home against the Tampa Bay Rays as a -200 money-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 9. Week 12 in the Canadian Football League continues with one game. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on the CBS Sports Network at 8:30 p.m. ET. as a 10-point favorite with a total of 47.5.

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NFL System of the Week

Thursday, Aug 22, 2024

This upcoming week is the final slate of Preseason games before the real stuff starts in two weeks.  There are two games tonight, on Thursday; three on Friday; eight on Saturday; and three on Sunday.For our System of the Week, we're going to look at the Thursday night match-up between the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals.The Colts have been installed as a 6.5-point road favorite, primarily because the Bengals will be resting their starters for this game, while the Colts intend to play their starters into the 2nd quarter.Last week, the Bengals were blown out, 27-3, by the Chicago Bears to fall to 0-2.  Indianapolis is 1-1 after upsetting Arizona, 21-13, as a 2.5-point home underdog last Saturday.Many bettors might shy away from a team which scored just 3 points in its previous game, especially when it has signaled it won't play its starters.  But be careful.  Consider that NFL Preseason teams have gone 43-27-2 ATS since 1983 when installed as an underdog of 3+ points, if they scored 3 or less in their previous game.  And if our underdog was playing at home, then our 43-27-2 stat zooms to 8-3 ATS.Take Cincinnati + the points.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

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2024 NCAA Football Futures Wager: Oregon to Win the National Championship

Wednesday, Aug 14, 2024

Michigan's championship last season ended an era in NCAA Football -- one where winning a conference title mattered greatly.  This season, the post-season will be expanded from four to 12 teams.  No longer will it be hugely important to finish atop one's conference.The conference champions will retain a significant advantage, as the five highest-ranked conference champs will qualify for the post-season.  And the four highest-ranked will be seeded #1 through #4 and earn a first-round bye.  But I have no doubt that we will often see a conference's #2 team hoisting the trophy.Beyond the change to the playoff format, there was a shake-up in the major conferences.  The Pac-12 Conference imploded (though Washington State and Oregon State remain), and its erstwhile members landed in the Big 10, Big 12 and ACC Conferences.  Washington State and Oregon State will compete in football within the Mountain West Conference.Although I don't think it's critical to win the Big 10 or SEC Conference, in order to compete for a national championship, I do think it's paramount to finish in the top two.  And that leads me to my 2024 Futures Pick.  I like the Oregon Ducks to win the title.  Currently, the best odds are +800, at Bet365.Last season -- Dan Lanning's 2nd in Eugene -- the Ducks went 11-1 in the regular season, and smashed Liberty, 45-6, in the Fiesta Bowl.  Overall, the Ducks have gone 22-5 in Lanning's tenure as head coach.The Ducks enter the 2024 season ranked as the #3 team in the Associated Press poll behind SEC member, Georgia, and fellow Big 10 member, Ohio State.  The good news for the Ducks is that it will host the #2-ranked Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium, on October 12.  And the only other ranked team on Oregon's schedule is #9 Michigan.  That game will be played in Ann Arbor, on November 2.  So, the Ducks could be favored in all 12 of their regular season games.Oregon's offense will be led by Dillon Gabriel, who transferred from Oklahoma.  Throw in perhaps the country's best group of receivers (including Texas A&M transfer, Evan Stewart), and an elite offensive line, and one can see why many are optimistic the Ducks can win their first championship.  The Ducks' offense may not reach the lofty heights set by Bo Nix (44.2 ppg, 531 ypg) but it will still be potent.On defense, Oregon's strength will be its defensive line's play against the rush.  Last season, the Ducks ranked #10 in rush defense, but #22 in total defense.  That illustrates Oregon's primary weakness -- pass defense.  It ranked a measly #54 in that category in 2023, and will need to improve to win the title this season.  I believe it will.  Lanning has brought in a lot of talent via the transfer portal and the 2024 class.  Among the new recruits are CB Jabbar Muhammad (ex-Oklahoma State), Kam Alexander (ex-UTSA), and Brandon Johnson (ex-Duke).  Don't be surprised when the Ducks' pass defense takes a leap this season.Certainly, teams like Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Alabama, and Mississippi will also be in the mix this season for a championship.  But the odds on Georgia (+300) and Ohio State (+400) are too short for me (all odds courtesy of Bet365).  With this new format, I really want to bet on a team with minimum odds of +700.  Texas (+800), Alabama (+1200) and Ole Miss (+1400) do have odds north of +700, but they're also in the rugged SEC, and I also prefer to take a team which has an excellent shot to finish in the top two in its conference.  Taken together, Oregon is our choice this season at 8-1 odds to win the title.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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