July Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

July Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of July, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four American League starters which you should be cautious with supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable. 

Brady Singer – Kansas City Royals

Brady Singer has been considered an elite talent for the Royals since being a 1st round pick in 2018. With Kansas City charging towards a playoff spot this season, Singer has put together his most complete campaign. His ERA is just 2.82 in 21 starts. His FIP is 3.81 however and the biggest difference in his numbers this season has been stranding over 83 percent of his baserunners compared to his career average of just over 72 percent. In what has been an outstanding month of July for Singer, he has stranded over 90 percent of his baserunners to produce a 1.88 ERA even with a 3.39 FIP and a 3.1 BB/9. Singer doesn’t have elite strikeout numbers and he has an extreme disparity between his home and road splits, as many Royals have this season with a great home record for Kansas City. After strong results in April and May, Singer fell back a bit in June and the deeper numbers suggest his July shouldn’t have been much different than his average results in June. Singer is likely to remain a slightly above average option for the Royals, but he may get overpriced, particularly in his home starts following the fortunate run he has been on in recent weeks.  

Kutter Crawford – Boston Red Sox

With a 6-8 record in just over 129 innings last season Kutter Crawford had a 4.04 ERA and a 3.83 FIP last season. In now 119 innings in 2024 Crawford has a 3.33 ERA but with a 4.24 FIP that is nearly a half-run higher than he had last season. His K/9 is lower this season while his BB/9 and HR/9 rates are higher, yet he has allowed fewer runs. Crawford has enjoyed an exceptionally charmed month of July with a 2.52 ERA but a 5.14 FIP as he has allowed six home runs in 25 innings but has kept the damage to a minimum allowing only seven earned runs with five solo shots and one two-run home run allowed. Crawford has just a 6.1 K/9 in July and he has not allowed a single baserunner to score in those 25 innings, a truly remarkable run that obviously won’t last much longer. Crawford has made three of those four starts in July on the road and his season splits are worse at home. Crawford may be worth looking to fade in upcoming Fenway Park outings as he isn’t pitching as well as his recent numbers imply. 

Dean Kremer – Baltimore Orioles

Going 0-7 in 13 starts for Baltimore in 2021 wasn’t a great sign for Dean Kremer’s future but he had a solid 2022 season as Baltimore started to turn the corner and then last season, he was a key piece of the rotation making 32 starts for the AL East victors. Kremer’s season 2024 season was derailed with an injury in late May, and he recently returned in July, providing four acceptable starts this month, posting three decent outings and one terrible outing for a 4.74 ERA. He lacks a quality start since his return and the Baltimore bullpen has not been as sharp as it was last season. Kremer has a 5.99 FIP since his return and he has walked 10 batters in 19 innings. Ultimately Kremer hasn’t looked like the same pitcher in 2024 as he did the past two seasons, and the Orioles should be considering what his role should be moving forward with the trade deadline nearing. With Baltimore’s great record, Kremer will still command favorite pricing in most matchups, but he has been a worse than average pitcher this season, particularly at home where he owns a 6.16 ERA. August has historically been Kremer’s best month in his career splits, but given his disjointed 2024 season, that isn’t likely to prove true this season. 

Jose Soriano – Los Angeles Angels

Left for dead with numerous injuries and a terrible stretch of results in April and May, the Angels have produced a winning record since June 1. The scoring numbers don’t sync with that record however, but the Angels have been competitive in division games and could prove to be a spoiler in the tight AL West race. Starting pitching has been an unexpected strength for the Angels and Jose Soriano has turned in a 3.51 ERA in 95 innings. His K/9 has fallen off a cliff compared to his numbers last season as a reliever, but he has been blessed with a .255 BABIP so far in his 2024 season. Soriano is an elite groundball producer with an over 59 percent rate this season, featuring a big jump from last season which has helped to keep his HR/9 very low in 2024. Soriano has not pitched particularly well in Anaheim however and nearly two thirds of his innings at this point in the season have been in road venues. In July Soriano has a 4.51 FIP despite a 3.57 ERA and his K/9 is below 6.8. His groundball rare has fallen and three of his four starts in July have been road starts, including games vs. Oakland and Chicago, plus a start in a favorable environment in Seattle. Soriano is still pitching for a bad team and while his 3.51 ERA looks nice, his weak strikeout potential and higher than average walk risk should make him unappealing to support in most pairings moving forward.