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Biography

The handicapper formerly known as “Soccer Authority,” Amedeus Mastrangelo is now applying his skill to all the North American sports.

Active since:  2021

Location:  Dundas, ON, Canada

Amedeus Mastrangelo first launched his handicapping business, and gained fame under the brand, "The Soccer Authority.”  But Amedeus has expanded his service to now release selections on all major North American sports. 

While he's best known for his prowess on the Soccer pitch, Amedeus has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

Mastrangelo believes that you should set a unit size and stick to it. No matter what. He also suggests that you wager all of his picks for the same amount - the exceptions being an extra half unit or unit on his 10* selections.

Volume will vary as Amedeus will only ever place a wager on a pick in which he deems to have found good value (+EV), however generally when there is a full card of games you can expect 4 or more premium picks.

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NCAAB - Point Spread - Thu, Apr 03

AMEDEUS' CBB NIT HARDWOOD HAMMER!

Amedeus is coming off of a 2-7 Wednesday, going 0-1 in CBB, but he is looking to bounce back on Thursday. He missed w...

$30

NCAAB - Point Spread - Thu, Apr 03

AMEDEUS' CBB CROWN PICK AND ROLL THE BOOKS!

Amedeus is coming off of a 2-7 Wednesday, going 0-1 in CBB, but he is looking to bounce back on Thursday. He missed w...

$30

NHL - Moneyline - Thu, Apr 03

AMEDEUS' NHL POWER PLAY!

Amedeus is coming off of a 2-7 Wednesday, going 0-1 in NHL, but he is looking to bounce back on Thursday. He missed w...

$30

NHL - Moneyline - Thu, Apr 03

AMEDEUS' NHL ICE COLD CLAPPER!

Amedeus is coming off of a 2-7 Wednesday, going 0-1 in NHL, but he is looking to bounce back on Thursday. He missed w...

$30

SOCCER - Over / Under - Thu, Apr 03

AMEDEUS' COPA LIBERTADORES PERFECT PITCH!

Amedeus is coming off of a 2-7 Wednesday, going 2-2 on the pitch, but he is looking to bounce back on Thursday. He sp...

$30

NBA - Point Spread - Thu, Apr 03

AMEDEUS' NBA SLAM DUNK!

Amedeus is coming off of a 2-7 Wednesday, but he is looking to bounce back on Thursday. He has had a very rough stret...

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NBA - Point Spread - Thu, Apr 03

AMEDEUS' NBA COURT CRUSHER!

Amedeus is coming off of a 2-7 Wednesday, but he is looking to bounce back on Thursday. He has had a very rough stret...

$30
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Copa Libertadores Group Betting (2025 Season)

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Copa Libertadores is back for the season of 2025 with the first games of the group stage starting on Tuesday, April 1. Botafogo is the defending champion from last season and the tournament has been dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last few years. A Brasilian club has won this competition the last 6 straight years, and the Final has been 2 Brasilian clubs in 4 of the last 5 years. There has not been a repeat champion since Palmeiras won B2B in 2020 and 2021. Only 1 club can lift the trophy in the end, but there are plenty of ways to bet this competition and lots of value to be found in the group stage alone. Now with the group stage starting up, it is time to see which clubs have the best chance of topping their groups in the group stage and which clubs have value to qualify for the knockout rounds.  Group Winner Group A: Group A is the group consisting of Botafogo -125, Estudiantes +137, Universidad de Chile +700, and Carabobo +10000. Botafogo is the favorite to win this group and for good reason as they are the defending champions of the competition. They did not win their group last season, but they went on to win the whole tournament and there is going to be a heavy focus on defending their title in this group stage. They are in a weaker group this year with 1 club from Argentina, 1 club from Chile, and 1 club from Venezuela, and none of those clubs have been dominating their respective domestic leagues either. Botafogo still has a lot of the quality and depth that won them the competition last season and they should have no problem topping this group as the defending champions so this is a good price for them. Botafogo to win Group A at -125. Group B: Group B is the group consisting of River Plate -188, Independiente del Valle +400, Barcelona Guayaquil +450, and Universitario de Deportes +1200. River Plate is the big favorite in this group, but that is more due to name value. River Plate is one of the biggest clubs in Argentina and they have the money to put out a competitive team each year, but they have not been dominating their domestic league in recent years and have also struggled in this competition. They did dominate their group last season, but they also played in a very weak group and ended up fizzling out of the competition in the knockouts. They do not have a strong attack this season as they have struggled to score goals, and that will be a problem in this group with some teams that can score. They also struggle a lot more away from home and they will have to deal with some altitude playing in this group. Independiente del Valle and Barcelona Guayaquil both finished 3rd in their respective groups last season, but both have been dominant teams in Ecuador the last few years and they have experience playing in this competition. If another team not named River Plate is going to win this group, it will be one of those two, and Barcelona Guayaquil is the better of the 2 in their current states. Barcelona Guayaquil also has a much better attack and they will be able to score their way out of trouble in this group, also helping with their goal differential if the group becomes tight in the end. Barcelona Guayaquil to win Group B at +450. Group E: Group E is the group consisting of Racing Club +120, Fortaleza +187, Colo Colo +300, and Atletico Bucaramanga +1600. Racing Club is the favorite to win this group as they are the Copa Sudamericana champions from last season and even won the CONMEBOL Recopa, but they have not been in good form since winning Copa Sudamericana last season and they do not match up as well in this competition. Fortaleza was also a team that was in Copa Sudamericana last season and even though they did not win the competition, they also dominated their group in the group stage. Racing Club is only the favorite due to being the Copa Sudamericana champion, but they are not the strongest team in this group. Fortaleza plays in a much stronger league in the Brasileirao and they had to earn this spot in Copa Libertadores, finishing 4th place in the league last season. They have also been in great form in the Cearense and won their 1st match of the Brasileirao so that great start is going to carry over into this competition and it will hurt Racing Club who has not been in great form recently and is still feeling the hangover of winning last year. Fortaleza to win Group E at +187. Group F: Group F is the group consisting of Internacional -106, Bahia +200, Atletico Nacional Medellin +500, and Nacional de Football +900. Internacional is the favorite to win this group and they are the strongest team in the group. They play in the toughest league and do have Bahia in the group who also plays in the Brasileirao with them. Internacional and Bahia are going to be the top 2 teams in this group as they both have a lot more quality and depth than the other 2 teams in the group. Both have also been in great form to start the season, but Internacional has the better team and they have a team that compete for the Copa Libertadores Title this season. Bahia has a lot of quality and has been in great form recently, but they also had to play their way into this group stage in the qualifying rounds and they have had to play a lot more matches than Internacional. That is going to take a toll on them down the road as they do not have the depth that a team like Internacional has, and Internacional has more quality in their depth as well. Internacional is going to be a threat in this competition this year so there is some good value in them winning their group. Internacional to win Group F at -106. Group Qualification Group B: One team that has a lot of value to qualify for the knockout rounds is Barcelona Guayaquil at +110. Barcelona Guayaquil was already mentioned earlier as a possible group winner so this bet also has a lot of value for the same reasons. If Barcelona Guayaquil does not end up winning their group, they should be good enough for a 2nd place finish. Barcelona Guayaquil to qualify at +110. Group F: One team that has some value to qualify for the knockout rounds is Bahia at -150. Bahia has been in very good form to start the season and this is a team that has been on the upward trend going back to last season. They are in a group with another Brasilian club, but they also have 2 weaker clubs in the group who they should have no trouble beating. Bahia has a very good defense that will be able to carry them through this group stage, but they are also very dangerous with their attack and will make the most of their home matches in the group. Bahia is a top 2 team in this group and they have the quality to get past the group stage. Bahia to qualify at -150. Group G: One team that has some value to qualify for the knockout rounds is Bolivar at +100. Bolivar is in the same group as Palmeiras who is the favorite to win it so it is very likely that there will only be 1 spot up for grabs in this group once Palmeiras is accounted for. Bolivar has a very good chance at finishing in 2nd place though as they have one of the better teams in all of Bolivia and they also have a lot of experience in this competition. They dominate their domestic league so they usually end up in the group stage of Copa Libertadores, and last season they even won their group despite having Flamengo in it. Bolivar has more quality than the other 2 teams in the group, but they also have a big advantage at home that makes it very difficult for opposing teams to steal points from them. Bolivar plays in La Paz which is one of the highest places in all of South America so opposing teams tend to struggle a lot due to the altitude. The experience that Bolivar has in this competition along with the altitude they play at gives them a very good chance to be that team that finishes 2nd place in the group. Bolivar to qualify at +100.

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Copa Libertadores Futures (2025 Season)

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Copa Libertadores is back for the season of 2025 with the first games of the group stage starting on Tuesday, April 1. Botafogo is the defending champion from last season and the tournament has been dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last few years. A Brasilian club has won this competition the last 6 straight years, and the Final has been 2 Brasilian clubs in 4 of the last 5 years. There has not been a repeat champion since Palmeiras won B2B in 2020 and 2021. Now with the group stage starting up, it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the Copa Libertadores Trophy this season.  To Win Outright Flamengo +400: Flamengo is coming into this season with the best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo is always a big favorite in this competition as one of the biggest clubs in all of Brasil. The last time they won this competition was back in 2022, and they have won the trophy twice in the last 6 years as well as being a runner up in 2021. Flamengo always has a lot of quality in their squad, but they have added a few more quality players for this season and now have a lot of depth to lean on as well. They are going to need that depth to make a deep run in this competition, and they will be helped by the fact that they are in a weaker group that they should dominate. They have also been in great form as they dominated the Carioca and won it all by beating Fluminense in the Final. Copa Libertadores is always a big focus for this team and after falling short the last 2 seasons, they will be more focused on making a deep run this year. Flamengo has the quality and the depth to win it all this year, and they are by far the most talented team in the competition coming into this season. Flamengo has some value at this price to lift the trophy this season.  Palmeiras +450: Palmeiras is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras is always a big threat in this competition as they are one of the biggest clubs in Brasil and always have one of the best squads, similar to Flamengo. Palmeiras has been very good in this competition over the years as well, winning twice in the last 5 years as they won it B2B in 2020 and 2021. They have a lot of quality and depth in their squad as they have brought in lots of talent from both European and South American clubs. Palmeiras is always going to be a big threat in this competition with the money they spend and this competition is always going to be a focus for them as well. They are not coming into the competition in great form though as they did lose in the Final of the Paulista Serie A1 to Corinthians. They should be able to finish atop their group in the group stage and there are not many teams that can give them trouble, but they did struggle to win matches quite a bit against Brasileirao clubs in the Paulista Serie A1 and those draws will hurt them as they get deeper into the competition, leaving matches up to chance with penalties. Palmeiras is a very good team and there are not many teams that can beat them, but there are some teams that they struggle to beat and eventually they will run into one that gets the better of them. There is not a lot of value in Palmeiras at this price since there are better options for teams to win the tournament.  Botafogo +650: Botafogo is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo is the defending champion of this competition as they beat Atletico Mineiro 3-1 in the Final last season, but they have not been in great form since winning the competition. They lost some of that talent that took them so far and they have lost every trophy they have played for since then. They lost 3-0 to Pachuca in their 1st game of the FIFA Club World Cup, lost 3-1 to Flamengo in the Supercopa do Brasil, and they lost 4-0 on aggregate to Copa Sudamericana champions Racing Club in the CONMEBOL Recopa. They were not in great form in the Carioca either, failing to even make the playoffs. Botafogo has been very dominant in Brasil over the last 2 seasons, but only 2 clubs have been able to repeat the Copa Libertadores Title in the last 9 years and both of those clubs are the 2 biggest in Brasil, Flamengo and Palmeiras, so it is unlikely that Botafogo repeats this season. The still have the quality as well as the depth and experience to make a deep run, but they also won the Brasileirao last season so they have a major target on their back this year and will get the best effort of every team they play. Botafogo had a special season last year, but they are unlikely to repeat that and eventually they will run into a better team that gets the better of them in this competition as they have struggled in meaningful competitions since winning the Copa Libertadores Title. There is no real value in Botafogo to repeat as champions at this price.  River Plate +800: River Plate is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. River Plate is one of the biggest clubs in all of Argentina and they are the last non-Brasilian team to win this competition, beating Boca Juniors back in the 2018 Final. River Plate is also 4th on the all-time list with 4 Copa Libertadores Titles which is more than any single Brasilian club, but the competition has been dominated by Brasilian clubs the last 6 years and that does not look to be changing any time soon. River Plate has been very disappointing in this competition over the last few years, and they have not even been that dominant in their own domestic league either. They do have a lot of quality in their squad as well as a lot of depth, but a lot of that is in the midfield and on defense. They have a very good defense that does not allow many goals and that will take them far in this competition, but they also have a very weak attack that is going to be a big problem the deeper they go. They are not off to a great start this season in the Liga Profesional de Futbol either. River Plate is also in a very difficult group with 3 teams from weaker leagues, but those 3 teams are some of the best in their respective leagues and will not go down easily in the group. River Plate needs to make a lot of improvements, specifically with their attack, if they want to be a real contender in this competition. In their current state, this is not a team that can win this competition so there is no real value in River Plate at this price.  Racing Club +850: Racing Club is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Racing Club is the current Copa Sudamericana champion from last season and they also won the CONMEBOL Recopa over Botafogo, 4-0 on aggregate. They do not have a lot of experience playing in this specific competition though, and they only have 1 Copa Libertadores Title in their club history. They have not been in good form to start the new season in the Liga Profesional de Futbol either. They are dominating the way they did last season, and they have struggled a lot more away from home which is going to be a problem in this group stage. Their group is not a slam dunk win for them as they have 2 quality teams, 1 from Brasil and 1 from Chile, who both know how to make runs in this competition. They do not have the quality that they had in their squad last season either. Part of the reason they won Copa Sudamericana last season is because they were playing against much weaker clubs who play in much weaker leagues, but now they are in the big leagues and they just do not match up well against some of the stronger teams they could face down the line. There is no real value in Racing Club to lift the trophy at this price.  São Paulo +900: São Paulo is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. São Paulo is the most decorated Brasilian club in this competition with 3 Copa Libertadores Titles and 3 times runner up, but it has been a while since they won this competition. The last time they won was back in 2005 and they have not been back to the final since the very next year when they lost in the 2006 Final to Internacional. They dominated their group in the group stage last season and lost in the quarter-final to eventual champions Botafogo. They did have a surge of good play last season which got them into 6th place in the Brasileirao, but they are not a very consistent team. They are very reliant on winning matches at home and have not performed nearly as well away from home. That is going to be a big problem in this competition as they do not have the strongest attack either. They made it to the Semi-Final of the Paulista Serie A1 before losing to Palmeiras, but they did not have a great season as they did not string many wins together. Their consistency and weaker attack will come back to bite them the deeper they go into this competition. There is no real value in São Paulo to win this competition at this price.  Internacional +1000: Internacional is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at winning Copa Libertadores according to the oddsmakers. Internacional has only won this competition twice in their history, winning in 2006 and in 2010. Internacional has been building a competitive team over the last few years now and really started to trend upward when they picked up Enner Valencia. Now they have made some big moves for this season and have a squad riddled with quality and depth at every position. That depth is going to be big for them to make a deep run in this competition, and they have been in great form to start the season. They dominated the Gaucho and ended up winning in the Final against Gremio. They have a very good defense that does not give up many goals, but they also have a very strong attack that can find the net as well. Internacional has put together a very good team for this season and this could finally be the year that they take a big step and start to dominate. They are going to be a big threat in this competition this year with the quality and the depth they have. Internacional has a lot of value here as a dark horse to win this competition.  RecommendationCopa Libertadores is the most desired competition in South America for these clubs to win, but only a few clubs actually have the quality and the depth to make a run and win it all. The competition has been dominated by Brasilian clubs over the last 6 years and that is unlikely to change this year with the current landscape, but there has been a different winner each of the last 4 years so that does open the door for some of these other Brasilian clubs. Flamengo is still the best team in the competition coming into this season and they are going to have the hunger to do well so there is some value in Flamengo at +400 to win it all, but Internacional could be a sneaky dominant team in all competitions this season so there is a lot of value in Internacional at +1000 to win this competition as a dark horse. Flamengo at +400 and Internacional at +1000 are the 2 best options to go with.

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MLS Western Conference Futures (2025 Season)

Wednesday, Feb 19, 2025

The MLS is back for another season starting on Saturday, February 22. The LA Galaxy are the defending champions from last season as they beat the New York Red Bulls in the MLS Cup Final, but neither of those teams finished at the top of their respective conferences during the regular season. Once the league gets to the playoffs it becomes anyone’s game, but the regular season is a completely different animal and not all teams are equipped to stay atop the table for the distance. Los Angeles FC finished at the top of the Western Conference last season and now that the start of the new MLS season is right around the corner, it is time to see who has the best chance of topping the Western Conference for the 2025 season. Western Conference League Winner (Regular Season) Los Angeles FC +300: Los Angeles FC is coming into this season as the team with the best chance at finishing 1st in the Western Conference according to the oddsmakers. LAFC finished last season in 1st place in the Western Conference with 64 points from a 19-7-8 record. They also had the best goal differential in the Western Conference at +20, scoring 63 goals in their 34 matches and allowing 43 goals. Last year marked the end of a dynasty for LAFC as they were the dominant force in the MLS over the last few seasons and lost a lot of their key pieces prior to last season starting, but they rebuilt very well throughout the season with the pieces they brought in and ended up topping the Western Conference. They did not win the MLS Cup or the Supporters’ Shield, but they did come away with a trophy as they won the US Open Cup. LAFC is still going to be a force in the MLS this season as they continue to bring in the proper players to keep this team competitive, but they did lose 2 key pieces in the offseason and that will have a negative impact on the team. They lost their right winger Cristian Olivera and brought in Yaw Yeboah to replace him, but Yeboah did not get a lot of playing time at Columbus last season. They also lost their attacking midfielder Mateusz Bogusz who was a key piece in their attack last season, and they did not bring in a suitable replacement for him either. The team is also lacking a lot in midfield depth so that is going to cause problems for them controlling the midfield in their matches. LAFC is still going to be a top team in the Western Conference this season, but they were supposed to take a step back last season and did not, this could be the year where they really feel the impact of the quality they have lost. There is no real value in LAFC to finish 1st place in the Western Conference at this price.  LA Galaxy +400: The LA Galaxy are coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at finishing 1st place in the Western Conference according to the oddsmakers. The Galaxy finished in 2nd place in the Western Conference last season with 64 points from a 19-7-8 record. They had the same number of points and the exact same record as LAFC who finished in 1st place, but the Galaxy lost the top spot on goal differential by 1 goal. They finished with a +19 goal differential and did have a stronger attack than LAFC as they scored 69 goals in their 34 matches, but their defense was also much weaker as they allowed 50 goals. LA Galaxy did not top the Western Conference in the end, but they were the best team at the end of the season and ended up winning the MLS Cup with an incredible run in the playoffs. They were outscoring opponents by a lot near the end of the season, and they have retained a lot of that talent in their potent attack. They did lose 1 key piece to their attack in Dejan Joveljic who led the team in goals scored last season, but they brought in Christian Ramirez to replace him. Ramirez did not start many matches at Columbus last season, but he came off the bench a lot and was still 3rd on the Crew for goals scored so he is going to be playing with something to prove this year. They also brought in Marco Reus last summer who turned out to be an integral part of their midfield and really helped them on their run when they got very hot toward the end of the season. They also have a lot of depth in both their midfield and on defense so they are once again going to be a big threat in the league this season. They are the defending MLS Cup champions and will be looking to do it again, but they are also going to be pushing for the Supporters’ Shield this season after seeing Inter Miami break the all-time points record last year. Losing the top spot in the Western Conference to their rival also left a bad taste in their mouth so LA Galaxy will be looking to return to the top of the league after their rival LAFC has been running the show the last few years. The LA Galaxy have both the motivation and the squad to continue their dominance in the MLS this season. There is a lot of value in them to finish in 1st place in the Western Conference at this price. Seattle Sounders +700: Seattle is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at finishing 1st place in the Western Conference according to the oddsmakers. Seattle finished last season in 4th place in the Western Conference with 57 points from a 16-9-9 record. They had a +16 goal differential and had the best defense in the league as they only allowed 35 goals in their 34 matches, but their attack was not very strong with 51 goals scored. They have had a great defense over the last few years and that defense has kept them very competitive in the league as they are always considered a top team, but they have not actually come close to finishing at the top of the league. Their defense gets them a lot of results throughout the season to stay in the top half of the Western Conference and it also makes them a very dangerous team in the playoffs, but their weaker attack has been a problem during the regular season as they cannot keep up with the stronger teams and will also drop points in matches they should win easily. Seattle is also due to take a big step back this season as they have been consistent in the league with a lot of veteran players, but now they have lost some of that talent and still have a much older squad. They brought in some players to improve their already great defense, but they have not made many moves to bring in impact players to improve their attack. Seattle will still be a competitive team in the league with a very good defense, but this attack is going to continue struggling to score goals in their matches. Seattle is also in dire need of a rebuild with a lot of their key players being much older in age and nearing the ends of their careers. They already lost a key veteran presence in Raul Ruidiaz as well and this will likely be a transition year for Seattle as they try to get some younger players in the squad. There is no real value in Seattle to finish 1st place in the Western Conference at this price.  Houston Dynamo +800: Houston is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at finishing 1st place in the Western Conference according to the oddsmakers. Houston finished last season in 5th place in the Western Conference with 54 points from a 15-9-10 record. They only had a +8 goal differential as their defense was very good with 39 goals allowed in their 34 matches, but their attack was not strong with 47 goals scored which was the 3rd lowest in the Western Conference last year. They also lost a lot of key pieces and those are going to be tough holes for them to fill. They lost Sebastian Ferreira who was 2nd on the team in goals scored with 5, Adalberto Carrasquilla who was 2nd on the team in assists, and they lost Hector Herrera who was the captain of the team and really was the driving force in the midfield. They still have their leading scorer Ibrahim Aliyu, but their attack was so weak last season that he led the team in goals scored for the season with 6. They did bring in a solid midfielder from Philadelphia, Jack McGlynn, but there is still going to be a lot of new pieces in this starting XI so they will need to figure out what works best for them. They could get off to a much slower start this season as they figure things out with their new lineup and that is going to hurt them in the long run. Houston is not going to be much of a threat to be a top team in the Western Conference during the regular season this year so there is not a lot of value in them to finish in 1st place in the Western Conference at this price.  RecommendationWinning the regular season in the MLS is a very different animal than winning the MLS Cup as leading the table requires a lot of consistency for a long period of time. Many teams have the talent to win the MLS Cup by making a run in the playoffs once they are in, but only few teams in the league have the potential to top their conference for the season and take a shot at the Supporters’ Shield. The Western Conference has a lot more competition with some very good teams in the mix, but very few of those teams actually have the quality and the depth to be a top team in the conference all season. LAFC has topped the Western Conference 2 of the last 3 years in the regular season and there have not been many teams that could challenge them, but now the LA Galaxy is back with a very competitive team that are also the defending MLS Cup champions so they are going to have the motivation to put themselves back on top of the league over their rivals, and the Galaxy are also a franchise with a lot of pride due to the success they have had in the MLS throughout the years. The LA Galaxy at +400 is the best option for a team to finish 1st place in the Western Conference for the regular season of the MLS.

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MLS Eastern Conference Futures (2025 Season)

Wednesday, Feb 19, 2025

The MLS is back for another season starting on Saturday, February 22. The LA Galaxy are the defending champions from last season as they beat the New York Red Bulls in the MLS Cup Final, but neither of those teams finished at the top of their respective conferences during the regular season. Once the league gets to the playoffs it becomes anyone’s game, but the regular season is a completely different animal and not all teams are equipped to stay atop the table for the distance. Inter Miami finished at the top of the Eastern Conference last season and now that the start of the new MLS season is right around the corner, it is time to see who has the best chance of topping the Eastern Conference for the 2025 season. Eastern Conference League Winner (Regular Season) Inter Miami +125: Inter Miami is coming into this season as the team with the best chance at finishing 1st in the Eastern Conference according to the oddsmakers. Inter Miami finished last season in 1st place of the Eastern Conference with 74 points from a 22-8-4 record. They had an 8 point lead over the 2nd place team and even won the Supporters’ Shield for having the best record in the entire MLS. They did lose some key pieces from last season like Diego Gomez and Matias Rojas, but they also have a lot of depth to fill those holes and they are always going to be competitive as long as Messi is still on the team. Lionel Messi is still searching for his 1st MLS Cup since coming to the league, but he got his 1st Supporters’ Shield last season as the team proved that the regular season matters to them. Inter Miami also set the all-time MLS points record for the regular season with their performance last season, but Messi did not come to the league to be a bystander so they are going to continue to push hard this season and try to break the record they set just last year. They also have the luxury of playing in the Eastern Conference which was by far the weaker conference last season, and the competition in the East has not improved that much for this season either. Inter Miami is by far the most talented team in the Eastern Conference still and they will be pushing to perform even better than last season. There is some good value in Inter Miami to finish 1st place in the Eastern Conference at this price.  Columbus Crew +600: Columbus is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at finishing 1st place in the Eastern Conference according to the oddsmakers. They finished last season in 2nd place of the Eastern Conference and the overall MLS table with 66 points from a 19-9-6 record. They had the best goal differential at +32, scoring 72 goals and allowing 40 goals in their 34 matches. They also had the 2nd strongest attack in the league with those 72 goals scored, but they did lose a key piece to their attack so it is going to look different for them this season. They lost Cucho Hernandez who led the team with 19 goals last season and they did not pick up a suitable replacement either. They still have a quality centre-forward in Jacen Russell-Rowe who did score 5 goals last season, but those are still going to be some very big shoes to fill in this attack for a 22 year old. Columbus still has a lot of the pieces on defense and in their midfield which has made this team so good over the last few seasons, but their attack is not going to be as strong this year with a key piece now gone from the team and no comparable replacement. They also lack a lot of depth with their forwards and that will cause problems for them trying to keep up with Miami who was the only team to finish higher last season but had 8 more points as well as 7 more goals scored. Columbus still has a very good squad that is going to be a threat in the league to win the MLS Cup this season, but they are not equipped to keep up with a team as deep as Miami in the East throughout the thick of the season. There is no real value in Columbus to finish 1st place in the Eastern Conference at this price.  FC Cincinnati +900: Cincinnati is coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at finishing 1st place in the Eastern Conference according to the oddsmakers. Cincinnati finished last season in 3rd place of the Eastern Conference with 59 points from an 18-5-11 record. They only had a +10 goal differential as they scored 58 goals in 34 matches, but also allowed 48 goals. They won the Supporters’ Shield back in 2023 and a big part of that was their outstanding defense, but they really fell off defensively last season. They lost their leading goalscorer from last season, Luciano Acosta who had 14 goals scored and 17 assists, but they did a good job at replacing him. They brought in some forwards from some smaller clubs to bolster their attack, and they also brought in Evander who had a great season on the Portland Timbers last year. He was 2nd on the team for goals scored and also led Portland in assists so he is going to take over that role for Cincinnati and they will be a lot more organized in the midfield with him on the pitch. This will help them defensively as well, but they did not make any groundbreaking moves on the defensive side to improve. Cincinnati is still going to be a dangerous team this season, but they do not have the squad to lead the conference and stay in this race for the whole season. They also won the Supporters’ Shield just 2 years ago and did not win the MLS Cup that season so their focus is still going to be on winning the MLS Cup this season. There is not a lot of value in Cincinnati to finish 1st place in the Eastern Conference at this price.  New York Red Bulls +1000: The New York Red Bulls are coming into this season as the team with the next best chance at finishing 1st place in the Eastern Conference according to the oddsmakers. The Red Bulls went to the MLS Cup Final last season and lost to the LA Galaxy, but they only finished in 7th place of the Eastern Conference with 47 points from an 11-14-9 record. They got hot once they were in the playoffs and played great defensively on that run, but they were a struggling team for a lot of the season. They only had a +4 goal differential with 55 goals scored and 50 goals allowed. They also led the MLS overall in draws with 14, the next closest in the East being 10. Those draws took a lot of points off the board for them and that will hurt them throughout the season as those dropped points tend to add up. They did make plenty of moves on defense to add a lot of depth, and they also boosted their attack by adding a veteran presence in Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting who has shown over the last few years that he still has some left in the tank when he has gotten his opportunities. The Red Bulls really underperformed during the season last year, but their run to the MLS Cup Final was a wake-up call for them to get in motion this season as they do have plenty of key pieces to be competitive in this league. They have the pieces to be a bit of a dark horse in the Eastern Conference this season, but they will need to clean up their play defensively which will be tough as their manager has also been holding them back a bit. There is not a lot of value in the New York Red Bulls to finish 1st place in the Eastern Conference at this price.  RecommendationWinning the regular season in the MLS is a very different animal than winning the MLS Cup as leading the table requires a lot of consistency for a long period of time. Many teams have the talent to win the MLS Cup by making a run in the playoffs once they are in, but only few teams in the league have the potential to top their conference for the season and take a shot at the Supporters’ Shield. The Eastern Conference is not a very strong conference either as the talent in the conference is very top heavy with the few elite teams while the rest of the Eastern Conference has a lot of parity in mediocrity. The run that the New York Red Bulls made in the playoffs last season could be the kick they needed to take the regular season more seriously as they did make a lot of moves to improve once they got a taste of that success so they do have a bit of value as a dark horse at +1000, but the Eastern Conference is pretty much a 2 horse race between the 2 strongest teams and the gap is quite wide for the rest of the conference. Inter Miami has taken over the MLS as a power since Messi got there and they are always going to be at the top of the league with him on the team. Inter Miami at +125 is the best option for a team to finish 1st place in the Eastern Conference for the regular season of the MLS.

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Europa League Futures 2024/25 (Knockout Rounds)

Friday, Jan 31, 2025

The new League Phase for Europa League has concluded and the competition will now be moving on to the Knockout Rounds. The teams that finished in the top 8 of the League Phase have been given an automatic bid to the Round of 16 while the teams that finished in places 9 through 24 will be playing in a two leg playoff to decide who qualifies for the Round of 16. The playoff round will be starting on February 13 so now it is time to see who has the best chance of these last 24 teams at lifting the Europa League Title this season. To Win Outright Manchester United +450: Man Utd is coming out of the League Phase with the best chance at claiming the Europa League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Man Utd finished the League Phase in 3rd place at 5-3-0, scoring 16 goals in their 8 matches and allowing 9 goals in those. They have been in much better form recently as they finished the League Phase strong, but they have also been a very inconsistent team. They have not been performing well in their own domestic league as they are in the bottom half of the Premier League table, and that will translate into this competition as well. They had an awful start to the season and had to fire their manager, then they got off to a great start under the new manager, but now they are right back at square one as they have dropped some points in matches that they should not have. Man Utd has been too unpredictable from match to match this season, they have been able to dominate some of the weaker teams they have faced, but they will eventually run into a stronger team that gives them trouble. They have a lot of quality in their squad, but they have not been able to put it all together over long stretches of play and that will hurt them the deeper they get into this competition. They may be the favorite to win this competition, but they do not have the best squad in the tournament so there is no real value to take them at this price.  Tottenham +500: Tottenham is coming out of the League Phase with the next best chance at claiming the Europa League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Tottenham finished the League Phase in 4th place at 5-2-1, scoring 17 goals in their 8 matches while allowing 9 goals in those. They were very good at home in this competition, but they were not great in their away matches, specifically on defense as they allowed 7 goals in their 4 away matches. They have been a very inconsistent team this season as they are currently sitting in the bottom 6 of their own domestic league, and the team seems to be getting worse each year under Ange Postecoglou. The quality is there for them to perform well, but they have not been able to put it together on a consistent basis. They also have a very high line on defense which has gotten them into a lot of trouble against faster and more dynamic teams. They will not have to play in the playoff round which gives them an advantage, but the teams that are going to give them trouble in this competition are not teams they are going to face in the Round of 16. Their journey will get harder the deeper they go into this tournament, especially since they could have to focus more on the Premier League if they get any closer to the relegation zone. Tottenham is certainly one of the more talented teams left in this competition, but they have been too inconsistent to make a deep run and they do not have the best squad left in the tournament either. There is no real value in Tottenham to lift the trophy at this price.  Athletic Bilbao +550: Athletic Bilbao is coming out of the League Phase with the next best chance at claiming the Europa League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Athletic Bilbao finished the League Phase in 2nd place at 6-1-1, scoring 15 goals in their 8 matches while allowing 7 goals in those. They have been one of the better defensive teams in this competition which will carry them far, but they also have a balanced attack that scores goals when they need to. They have been a very good team in their domestic league as well, currently sitting in the top 4 of La Liga, and they have been one of the better defensive teams in Spain this season as well. Spanish teams have done very well in this competition over the last decade so they have that going for them, but being in the top 4 of La Liga could take its toll on them down the stretch as Athletic Bilbao will have to remain focused on both competitions deep into the season. They have one of the more talented squads in this competition as well and might just be the best team left in it. They had the best home record in the League Phase and they were not bad in their away matches either. That is going to be a key piece for them as they will be able to take advantage of their home matches and will always give themselves a chance despite the away leg. Between their defense and the form they have been in, there is a lot of value in Athletic Bilbao to win this competition.  Lazio +700: Lazio is coming out of the League Phase with the next best chance at claiming the Europa League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Lazio finished the League Phase at the top of the table, going 6-1-1 and they scored 17 goals in their 8 matches while only allowing 5 goals in those. They had the 2nd best defense in the League Phase and that will carry them far in this tournament, but that has not been the case in their own domestic league. Their defense has actually been much worse in Serie A this year, allowing 30 goals in their 22 matches so far, and that could be a big problem they face as their defense might not hold up well against the stronger teams they face as they get deeper into the competition. They also allowed 3 of their 5 goals in the League Phase at home and could get themselves into trouble away from home if they are not dominating their home legs in each round. They did have the best away record in the League Phase which will be a big positive for them, and the defending champion is also an Italian club in Atalanta, but Lazio had a lot of their success come in the winter months and now they have fallen out of form recently. Lazio does have one of the more talented squads left in the tournament and there is a bit of value in them to win at this price since their defense has been good in the competition, but there are better teams that they have not had to face yet in the League Phase, especially since 3 of their opponents finished in the bottom 4 of the League Phase and 4 of their opponents failed to qualify in the top 24. Lazio is not the best option to lift the trophy this year.  Olympiacos +1800: Olympiacos is not coming out of the League Phase with the next best chance at claiming the Europa League Title this year according to the oddsmakers, but they do have some value here as a dark horse. They finished the League Phase in 7th place at 4-3-1, scoring 9 goals in their 8 matches while only allowing 3 goals in those. Their attack has struggled in this competition as they have not been scoring many goals, but they had the best defense in the League Phase which can carry them far. They also have some experience from last season as they were the Conference League champions and had to take down some quality opponents on their way to the Final. They are not the best squad left in the competition by any means, but they have a very good defense and the championship pedigree from winning the Conference League last year. They do not have to play in the playoff round either so that is a big advantage for them as they will have a weaker path with their seed, and these competitions mean a lot more to these smaller clubs like Olympiacos as they are actually striving to win the Title while some of the bigger clubs are just using this competition as a stepping stone to Champions League and are not as focused on it. Olympiacos has the potential to be a dangerous team that goes deep in this competition and they did catch some bigger clubs off guard last season. Olympiacos has a lot of value as a dark horse at +1800. RecommendationThe Europa League is a lot more wide open as there are many teams that can make a deep run due to the focus of some of these bigger clubs in the competition. There is not really a dominant team left in the competition either and since there are no more Champions League drop downs, this tournament is really anyone’s game. Lazio is not a bad option at +700 with the way they performed in the League Phase, but they are not the most trustworthy team in these competitions. With all things considered, Athletic Bilbao at +550 is the best option to go with for a team to lift the trophy, and Olympiacos at +1800 has a lot of value as a dark horse. Athletic Bilbao at +550 and Olympiacos at +1800 are the 2 best options to go with for value. 

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Champions League Futures 2024/25 (Knockout Rounds)

Friday, Jan 31, 2025

The new League Phase for Champions League has concluded and the competition will now be moving on to the Knockout Rounds. The teams that finished in the top 8 of the League Phase have been given an automatic bid to the Round of 16 while the teams that finished in places 9 through 24 will be playing in a two leg playoff to decide who qualifies for the Round of 16. The playoff round will be starting on February 11 so now it is time to see who has the best chance of these last 24 teams at lifting the Champions League Title this season. To Win Outright Liverpool +400: Liverpool is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. They finished the League Phase at the top with the number 1 seed, going 7-0-1 in their 8 matches. They only allowed 5 goals in those 8 matches while scoring 17 goals, and they have been a very dominant team this year as they also lead the Premier League. The quality has been there since last season, but their new manager has really given them the kick they needed to dominate all competitions they play in. They have already qualified for the Round of 16 and they will not be playing in the next round so that gives them an advantage with 8 more teams getting knocked out in the playoff round. Liverpool is going to have the best path in the tournament with their seeding, but they also have a lot of quality in their squad as well as the depth to make a deep run in this tournament. They also have a 6 point lead over 2nd place in the Premier League and they have a match in hand as well so that cushion is going to help them focus more on these Champions League matches down the stretch as they also try to make a Premier League Title push. Liverpool is a very strong contender to lift this trophy this season and they have shown no signs of slowing down in any of the competitions they play in. They were discussed as a possible dark horse in this competition at +1400 prior to the League Phase starting, but there is still some good value in them to lift the trophy at this price.  Barcelona +600: Barcelona is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Barcelona finished in 2nd place of the League Phase at 6-1-1, scoring 28 goals in their 8 matches but also allowing 13 goals in those. They are also going to have a good path in this competition due to their high seeding and they will not be playing in the playoff round either. Barcelona has a very potent attack that has been scoring a lot of goals in all of their competitions, leading all of the teams in this competition as well, but their defense has been a big problem for them. They have had some close calls in the League Phase which they needed to score their way out of, and they were able to, but that could get them into a lot of trouble deeper in this competition when they face a more sound team defensively. They allowed the most goals in the competition out of the top 16 teams in the League Phase and this has been a problem in La Liga as well. Barcelona has both the quality and the depth to make a deep run in this competition, but eventually they are going to run into a better defensive team that will give them trouble and put them in a hole that they will not be able to score their way out of. Defense becomes a much bigger piece to the puzzle as teams get deeper into this competition and Barcelona’s defense will be something that holds them back here. There is no real value in Barcelona to lift the trophy at this price.  Arsenal +600: Arsenal is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Arsenal finished the League Phase in 3rd place at 6-1-1, scoring 16 goals in their 8 matches while only allowing 3 goals in those. They have had a nice balance in this competition between their attack and their defense, and they had the 2nd best defense in the League Phase behind Inter Milan. They will not have to play in the playoff round which gives them an advantage, but they are also a team that has managed to drop the ball in big moments multiple times over the last few years. They have been a strong force in the Premier League the last few seasons and are once again in 2nd place, right behind Liverpool, but they have had many chances to lift the Premier League Title and bottled it down the stretch. Once again they are in position to try and win the Premier League this season so that is going to be something that takes focus away from this competition. Champions League is a big priority for them and they do have the quality as well as the depth to make a deep run, but they have not been able to in previous years and as long as they are still in the hunt for the Premier League Title, they will not be fully focused on this competition. Arsenal has also had many opportunities this year to cut the gap between them and Liverpool in the Premier League, but they continue to bundle big matches and drop points when they have a chance to gain ground. That is something that is going to rear it’s ugly head the deeper they get into this competition as well. Arsenal does have some value at this price with the form they have been in all year, but they are always a team that is just right there and can never get over the big hump. Arsenal is not the best option to win this competition this season.  Bayern Munich +750: Bayern Munich is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Bayern Munich finished the League Phase in 12th place at 5-0-3, scoring 20 goals in their 8 matches while allowing 12 goals in those. They did not finish in the top 8 so they will be playing against Celtic in the playoff round. Celtic does not have the quality that Bayern has so they should be able to get through, but it is still 2 extra matches they have to play where anything can happen. They are also going to have to play a top 8 team after this if they do get through to the Round of 16 so they are already on a much harder path to the final. They have been the dominant team in the Bundesliga this season, but that has not been the case in this competition. They have struggled more with 3 losses in their 8 matches, and all 3 of those losses were away from home, 2 of those losses coming to teams in the top 8 which they could have to face again in the next round. Their defense has been a big problem in these away matches as well, allowing 9 goals in their 4 away matches in the League Phase, and this has been a problem for them in Bundesliga too as 10 of their 16 goals allowed this season came away from home. Defense is going to be very important as they get deeper into this competition and they will eventually run into a team that will be able to exploit them, especially with their competition getting much harder from the Round of 16 on. There is no real value in Bayern Munich to lift the trophy at this price.  Real Madrid +800: Real Madrid is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Real Madrid is the defending champion of this competition, they did not have a good League Phase. They finished the League Phase in 11th place at 5-0-3, scoring 20 goals in their 8 matches while allowing 12 goals in those. They may be the defending champions and have had great success in this competition over the last decade, but they are already at a disadvantage since they have to play in the playoff round. They are going to have a much harder path if they make it to the Round of 16, but they also have to face Manchester City in the playoff race and that is no walkover. Man City has not been in great form this season, but that is still 2 extra matches against a quality team that could see Real Madrid out of the competition before the Round of 16. A lot of their trouble came in the 1st half of the League Phase as they have been much better in the 2nd half of their matches, even climbing up to the top of La Liga as well, but it is still going to be an uphill battle for them to get back to the Final despite having the quality and the depth to do so. Real Madrid is still one of the better teams in the competition and they have been in much better form recently as well, but there is too much liability on them to get through a gauntlet of teams on their way to the Final. Real Madrid is not the best option here to lift the trophy this season.  Manchester City +1000: Man City is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Man City finished the League Phase in 22nd place at 3-2-3, scoring 18 goals in their 8 matches while allowing 14 goals in those. They have struggled a lot in this competition this year and even needed a win in their final match of the League Phase just to qualify as they were on the outside looking in. It has not just been this competition though as they have also fallen off in the Premier League this year, concurrently sitting in 4th place and out of the Title race that they have dominated over the last few years. They have had a lot of distractions off the pitch this season which could be affecting their play, but they have also been in poor form for a lot of the season, very inconsistent from match to match. They are also going to have to play in the playoff round just to make the Round of 16 and they could not have asked for a tougher opponent as they will be facing the defending champions themselves, Real Madrid. Man City has been so inconsistent all season and their path is going to be much too difficult for them to make a deep run this season in a down year. This is not a competition they have had a lot of success in over the years either. There is no real value in Man City at this price as they could be out of the tournament before the Round of 16 even starts.  Inter Milan +1400: Inter Milan is coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Inter Milan finished the League Phase in 4th place at 6-1-1, scoring 11 goals in their 8 matches while only allowing 1 goal in those. They had the best defense in the League Phase this year, but they did not have a very strong attack which could get them into some trouble. That great defense will be able to carry them deep into this competition though, and they have the quality as well as the depth to make a deep run. They have been one of the more dominant teams in Italy consistently over the last few years and they do have experience going deep in this competition, making the Final just a few years ago. They did have a problem in their away matches as they were 2-1-1 and only scored 2 goals in those 4 matches. Their defense will be able to keep them in a lot of their matches as they are a very tough team to beat, but their lack of a strong attack could get them into situations where penalties become the deciding factor. Inter is going to be a force in this competition with that great defense which will carry them far. They are not the best option to win this competition, but they do have some value as a dark horse to lift the trophy at this price.  Bayer Leverkusen +2500: Leverkusen is not coming out of the League Phase as the team with the next best chance at claiming the Champions League Title this year according to the oddsmakers, but they do have some value as a dark horse at this price. They finished the League Phase in 6th place at 5-1-2, scoring 15 goals in their 8 matches and allowing 7 goals in those. They were a much different team in the competition away from home, going 1-1-2 with all 7 of their goals allowed coming in those 4 matches. They still have a lot of quality in their squad though and they do have some experience making a deep run from last year. They were the Europa League runners up last season, losing to Atalanta in the Final, but they did win their domestic league so it only makes sense that there will be more of a focus on winning Champions League this season. They will not be playing in the playoff round either so they do have a bit of an advantage as they are right in the Round of 16 and could be getting a weaker opponent in that round. They have also been a force at home so they will take advantage of their home legs and will always give themselves a chance to advance. Leverkusen is not the best team in the competition by far, but they had a magical run last season across all of the different competitions they were in so they have a chance to recreate that magic again this season. They have a lot of value at this price to make a deep run as a potential dark horse.  RecommendationThere are plenty of quality teams left in the competition with this new format, but only 1 team can lift the trophy this year with everything falling into place for that club. With all things considered, Liverpool is still the best option to lift the trophy at +400 with the form they have been in all season as they seem to be on a mission to win everything they can. Inter Milan at +1400 with their good defense and Leverkusen at +2500 with their experience in Europa League from last season are both good options as dark horses though as both of these teams have the potential to go on a run. Liverpool at +400 is the best option followed by Inter Milan at +1400 and Leverkusen at +2500.

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ATP Australian Open Futures 2025

Tuesday, Dec 31, 2024

The New Year is here and with that comes the start of the new ATP season for 2025. The 1st major of the year is the Australian Open and it all starts on January 11. 2024 was a big year for the men as some of the younger players are starting to assert their dominance in the sport with the old guard starting to phase themselves out with age. With the start of the Australian Open just around the corner now, it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the title this season.  To Win Outright Jannik Sinner +150: Jannik Sinner is the player with the best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Jannik Sinner really emerged as a dominant player in 2024, now ranked number 1 in the world. Sinner dominated the hardcourt in 2024, going 53-3 on the surface with 7 titles. He won both major tournaments on hardcourt in 2024 as well, taking the US Open and the Australian Open. Sinner is the defending champion of this tournament and he has been in great form coming into the new year, winning his last 18 straight matches and winning his last 9 straight without dropping a set. He has been on fire all year and is clearly the player to beat in this tournament, but he has also been dealing with a doping scandal over the last year and it is currently in an appeal so that decision is still looming over him and could have a negative impact mentally. There is a lot to love about Sinner coming into this tournament, but +150 is not a great price and he does have a kryptonite that could give him some trouble if he runs into that player.  Carlos Alcaraz +333: Carlos Alcaraz is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Carlos Alcaraz is currently ranked number 3 in the world and he has been emerging as a dominant young player over the last 3 years. He has won at least 1 major title in each of the last 3 years, but he has not won a major on hardcourt since winning the 2022 US Open. That US Open win is his only hardcourt major title in his career, but he was still a dominant player last season as he won 2 majors. He took the French Open as well as Wimbledon, but he is going to be focused on this tournament as this is the only major he has not won in his career. A win at this tournament would mean completing the career Grand Slam for him, and he was the 2nd best hardcourt player on the tour last season, going 29-8 with 2 titles. He did not end the year in great form, but he was also dealing with an injury that he picked up and the time off he has had will help get him to 100% for this tournament. He has also been the kryptonite to the current number 1 as Sinner only lost 3 matches on hardcourt in 2024, and 2 of those 3 losses were to Alcaraz. Alcaraz has also bested him on the surface throughout their careers as Alcaraz is 5-2 H2H against Sinner on hardcourt. Alcaraz is coming off of a great season and the focus is going to be there with this being the only major he has not won. He also has the quality to beat the player that has seemed unbeatable recently so there is some good value in Alcaraz at this price.  Novak Djokovic +350: Novak Djokovic is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Novak Djokovic has been a dominant player on the tour over the last few years, currently ranked number 7 in the world. He was ranked number 1 in the world for a while and had a dominant spell from 2021-2023, but his age is starting to catch up to him as he went from winning at least 1 major title in 6 straight years to going empty handed in the 2024 season. 2023 was a massive year for him as he almost completed the Grand Slam, winning 3 of the 4 majors, but he did not have the gas last year. Playing in the Olympics also took a toll on him and he has been dealing with injuries that did not have him at 100%. He is a very decorated player in this tournament as he has won 10 Australian open Titles in his career, his last coming in 2023, but he did not play many hardcourt matches in 2024. He went 16-5 on hardcourt in 2024, but he won no titles and has struggled to compete with the top players in the world recently. Djokovic has had a great career and only got better after hitting the age of 30, but now he is 37 and his age has been catching up to him as he is past his prime. A year without winning a major will surely spark something in him this year, but he is not the same player as he was from 2021-2023 when he really peaked and he does not have a lot of value at this price to win this tournament.  Alexander Zverev +1000: Alexander Zverez is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Alexander Zverev is currently ranked number 2 in the world and he has battled back over the last 2 years after suffering a devastating ankle injury. It was tough for him to come back at first, but he ended last year playing very well and is starting to regain his form prior to that injury. He is still looking for his 1st ever major title and this was the closest he came last season as he made it all the way to the Semi Final, losing to Medvedev in a 5 set thriller. He will be looking to repeat that performance this year as he searches for his 1st major title, and he was very good on hardcourt in 2024 with a 40-13 record on the surface with 1 title. He ended the year playing very well as he won the Paris Hardcourt Indoor Tournament back in November and then played well after that in the ATP Finals, losing to Fritz in that tournament, but now he has been ramping himself up in the United Cup and is going to be a very dangerous player in this tournament. He certainly has the talent to go far and he has had success against the top 2 players in the world on this surface, going 3-0 H2H against Alcaraz and 2-1 H2H against Sinner on hardcourt in his career. Zverev went deep in this tournament last year so he is going to be focused on doing that again as he is hungry for his major title, and there is a lot of value in him at this price to be a dark horse in the tournament.  Daniil Medvedev +1400: Daniil Medvedev is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Daniil Medvedev is currently ranked number 5 in the world, but he is not the same player he was just a few years ago. The last major title he won, which is also the only major title he has won in his career, was the 2021 US Open. Medvedev was one of the best in the world during that time, flirting with the number 1 rank and being the 1 rival to Djokovic in that span, even preventing Djokovic from completing the Grand Slam with that US Open win, but he has really fallen off the map over the last year. Hardcourt has been his best surface, but he was not a top 5 player on hardcourt in 2024. He made it to the Final in this tournament last year, losing to Jannik Sinner, but 2024 was not a great year for him as he struggled in the other majors. He made it to the Semi Final at Wimbledon, but he saw some early exits in the French Open, the US Open, and even the Olympics. He did not end the year playing well either, getting knocked out in the first round of both tournaments, the Six Kings Slam and the Paris Hardcourt Indoor, and he also went to the ATP Finals where he lost 2 of the 3 matches he played. Medvedev did not have a good 2024 and he has only got worse with his form to end the year. He had success in this tournament last year, but he has struggled against the top players when he has had to face them and it is very likely that he will run into someone in this tournament who will get the best of him. There is no real value in Medvedev to win this title.  RecommendationThere are a lot of quality players coming into this tournament, but only a handful have a realistic shot at winning the title. It is very rare that an unexpected player wins a major on the men's side as the last 16 straight major titles have been won by top players in the world, and only 5 different players have won in that span as well. Carlos Alcaraz has really emerged as a dominant force in the sport and he has a lot of value at +333 to win the title as he will be focused and there has not been a repeat winner of the Australian Open in the last 3 years, Djokovic being the last to do it when he won the titles from 2019-2021. Zverev at +1000 also has a lot of value as a dark horse since he has battled back to be the number 2 player in the world and has a very good record on this surface against some of the top players in the world. Carlos Alcaraz at +333 is the best option to win the 2025 Australian Open followed by Alexander Zverev at +1000 as a dark horse. 

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WTA Australian Open Futures 2025

Tuesday, Dec 31, 2024

The New Year is here and with that comes the start of the new WTA season for 2025. The 1st major of the year is the Australian Open and it all starts on January 11. Aryna Sabalenka is the defending champion from last season, and she has won the last 2 straight Australian opens. There has been a few times where the tournament has been won by the same woman 3 straight years, but the last woman to do it was Martina Hingis from 1997-1999, so it is going to be tough for Sabalenka to do what has not been done in the new millennium. With the start of the Australian Open just around the corner now, it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the title this season.  To Win Outright Aryna Sabalenka +225: Aryna Sabalenka is the player with the best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Aryna Sabalenka is currently ranked number 1 in the world and she had a great 2024. She won both of the hardcourt majors in 2024, winning the Australian Open as well as the US Open, and she has won the last 2 Australian Open Titles as well. She also ended the year playing in great form as she won the Wuhan Open after winning the US Open, but she did fizzle out in the WTA Finals. No one has been better on hardcourt over the last year than Sabalenka, but she could be due for some regression after such a dominant year. Her 2 losses in the WTA Finals came against Gauff and Rybakina who are both top 6 players in the world right now and the motivation for her might not be as strong due to being the B2B defending champion. It is going to be very tough for her to win it again as there are many talented young women who have been improving over the last year, so there is not a lot of value in Sabalenka at this price.  Iga Swiatek +400: Iga Swiatek is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Iga Swiatek is currently ranked number 2 in the world and she has been having a great 2024. She was ranked number 1 for quite a while before Sabalenka dethroned her, but a lot of Swiatek’s dominance has come on the clay surface. She is the 3 time defending champion of the French Open coming into this year, but the last time she won a major on hardcourt was in the 2022 US Open. That is also the only major title she has ever won on hardcourt in her career. She only made it to the Quarter Final of the US Open last year and she was even worse in the 2024 Australian Open, getting knocked out in the Round of 32. This has also been her worst major by far as she went to the Semi Final in 2022, but other than that, she has failed to make it past the Round of 16 in 5 of the last 6 years. Swiatek is one of the best players in the world and is the best on a clay surface, but she has struggled more on hardcourt and has not had a lot of success in this specific tournament either. There is no real value in Swiatek to win this title this year.  Coco Gauff +400: Coco Gauff is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Coco Gauff is currently ranked number 3 in the world and she has had a lot of success on the tour considering her age. She is only 20 years old but has already emerged as a dominant force on the WTA Tour. She won her 1st and only major title on hardcourt at the 2023 US Open, but her career is only getting started and she will be looking to take a big step this year. She did not win a major tournament last year, but she finished the year with the 2nd most wins on the WTA Tour, going 54-17 in 2024. She may not have won a major tournament in 2024, but she ended the year playing very well with a title win at the Beijing Open and she also won the WTA Finals, beating Sabalenka in that tournament as well, so she is coming into this year with a lot of confidence. It is only a matter of time until Gauff has a breakout year, and this could be the year that she has it. She has the energy with her age and is already very accomplished for 20 years old. She actually lost in the Semi Final of the Australian Open last year, losing to eventual champion Sabalenka, and after a disappointing exit at the US Open in the Round of 16, she is going to be focused on starting the year off with a win in this tournament. There is a lot of value in Gauff to win the title at this price.  Elena Rybakina +700: Elena Rybakina is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Elena Rybakina is currently ranked number 6 in the world, but 2024 was not a great year for her. She has only won 1 major title in her career and that was the 2022 Wimbledon. She did not do well in this tournament last year as she was knocked out in the Round of 64, and she has been dealing with some injuries recently as well. A back problem kept her out of the US Open as well as the Olympics, and she did not play any tournaments after the US Open leading up to the WTA Finals. She was awful in the WTA Finals as well, losing 2 of her 3 matches in the tournament. She has not really been playing well leading into this tournament and she has not been a dominant player in the sport either. She has gone on a few runs where she went deep into tournaments, but 2024 was not a year she played well in for most of it and dealing with a back problem is not ideal coming into this major. Rybakina is a good player, but she is not a great player, and there are far better options to make a deep run in this tournament this year. There is no real value in Rybakina to win the title. Qinwen Zheng +1600: Qinwen Zheng is the player with the next best chance at winning the Australian Open Title this year according to the oddsmakers. Qinwen Zheng did not win any major tournaments in 2024, but she did take home the gold medal at the Olympics. She is currently ranked number 5 in the world and is a young player at 22 years old who has been emerging as a force on the WTA Tour. She played well at the WTA Finals but lost to both Sabalenka and Gauff. Prior to that, she did win the Tokyo Open. She went far in the Wuhan Open as well, but lost to Sabalenka in the Final, and that is not the 1st time she was bested by Sabalenka in 2024 as Zheng also went to the Australian open Final and lost to Sabalenka there. Zheng has some consistency issues, but she has been playing very well coming into this year. The biggest knock on her is her inability to beat the world number 1. Sabalenka is the B2B defending champion of this tournament and if Zheng runs into her at any point, she could be in a lot of trouble as she is 0-4 in her career against Sabalenka on hardcourt. Qinwen Zheng has the potential to be a dark horse in this tournament as she did go to the Final last year and has been in great form recently, Sabalenka is her only real kryptonite though so she will have to avoid a matchup with her. If Sabalenka gets knocked out and Zheng can avoid her in the tournament, Zheng could have a real chance at winning the whole thing. There is some value in Qinwen Zheng to win the title at this price.  RecommendationAryna Sabalenka is the clear favorite in this tournament for a reason as she is the B2B defending champion and has been so good on hardcourt over the last year. There are some talented young women starting to come up though and they have been making names for themselves, they are going to have the hunger to make a run in this tournament as they try to have a breakout year. Sabalenka is obviously going to be a threat in this tournament, but Coco Gauff at +400 has the best value with the way she has been ramping up for this tournament and playing so well over the last few months. Qinwen Zheng at +1600 also has some value as a dark horse as she has a real chance to go deep in the tournament if she can avoid the defending champion. Coco Gauff at +400 is the best option to win the Australian Open followed by Qinwen Zheng at +1600.

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Coppa Italia Futures 2024/25 Season

Saturday, Nov 30, 2024

The Coppa Italia Round of 16 is approaching with the first matches starting on Tuesday, December 3. There are a lot of quality teams left in the final 16 with a lot of rich history in this competition, but there are also quite a few teams that do not have the quality or depth to go the distance. With the Round of 16 just around the corner now, it is time to see who has the best chance at lifting the trophy this year.  To Win Outright Inter Milan +200: Inter Milan is the team with the best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Inter Milan has been in great form entering December, but they are currently sitting 3rd place in the Serie A table. The league title is always the 1st priority for this club followed by Champions League and since Inter Milan is not dominating the league right out of the gate like they have in the past, that could take a toll on them in this competition. They are playing Udinese in this round and it will be their 1st round in the competition as they had byes until now, but they are also on the harder side of the bracket by far. The next round would see them play the winner of Lazio/Napoli and that will be no easy match, especially if it is Napoli who they play against as Napoli is currently leading the league and has no other competitions to focus on either. The new Champions League format also has them playing 2 extra matches which can take a toll on them, so between that and the closer race at the top of the league now, they are not going to be so focused on the Coppa Italia. They have one of the better attacks in the league this season, but there are some very good defenses in the league right now that can match them and Inter has already struggled in a few of their matches this season against top clubs in the league. Inter is tied for 2nd on the all-time list with 9 Coppa Italias and they have won 2 in the last 3 years as well, but they are not the defending champions. Those are also the only 2 they have won in the last 13 years so they have not been that dominant in this competition over the last decade and they are on the harder side of the bracket as well. There could be some value in Inter at a better price, but right now as the current favorite there is no real value with all things considered.  Juventus +350: Juventus is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Juventus has not been in the best form entering December, but they are currently sitting in 6th place of the league table and they are the only team in Serie A that does not have a loss this season. They have the best defense in the league with only 7 goals allowed in their 13 league matches and they have been a very tough team to beat all year in all competitions. They have struggled in the league in recent years, but their biggest focus this season will be on Champions League as that is a competition they missed last season. This is also a competition they are usually focused on as they are the defending champions from last year, but they have also had the most success in the competitions history. Juventus has won 15 Coppa Italias, winning 2 in the last 4 years, and they have also won 6 in the last 10 years. They are playing Cagliari in the Round of 16 after getting byes until now, but they have also been dropped on the easier side of the bracket. They would have to play the winner of Fiorentina/Empoli in the next round which will not cause too many problems for them, and the only other teams that could really challenge them before the final would be Bologna and Atalanta. Atalanta could be a tricky team for them, but it is still better than the teams they could see on the other side of the bracket, and Bologna is just a shell of the team they were last season as well. Juventus is always a true threat to win this competition and at this price with them not being the favorite either, there is some good value in Juventus here.  AC Milan +600: AC Milan is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. AC Milan has been in great form entering December, but they are currently sitting in 7th place in the league table and have still been very inconsistent this season. AC Milan is the kind of team that is always a bridesmaid and never a bride, whether it be in Serie A, Champions League, or this competition, they always find a way to do well and just come up short. They have won 5 Coppa Italias in their club history, but that only puts them tied for 7th place on the all-time list. They have not had any recent success either with their last win coming in 2003. They are playing against Sassuolo in the Round of 16, but they are also on the much harder side of the bracket with teams like Roma, Lazio, Napoli, and Inter Milan who they have struggled with a lot in recent years. AC Milan has quality in their squad, but they have been too inconsistent for years and always come up short in these competitions. They are the kind of team that, until they prove they can win, there is no real value in taking them to lift a trophy.  Napoli +600: Napoli is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Napoli has been in great form entering December as they currently sit atop the Serie A table. They are 9-2-2 this season and they have the 2nd best defense in the league with just 9 goals allowed in 13 matches. Antonio Conte is in his 1st season as the manager, but already he has flipped this team on its head. Conte has them headed in the right direction and he is also a proven manager in Serie A from his days at Inter Milan. This is actually a competition that he never won in his tenure at Inter Milan, but this is the perfect season for him to go for it since Napoli is not in any European competitions and has nothing else to worry about except the league. Napoli has to play Lazio in the Round of 16, but they actually played in the last round as well so they will be ready for this match. They are on the stronger side of the bracket and it will not be easy for them to make the final, but they already have wins against AC Milan and Roma this season as well as a draw with Inter Milan so there is nobody on their side of the bracket who they will be afraid of. Napoli has a lot of quality in their squad and Conte has them playing with a lot more confidence this season after their old manager left them. With no other competitions to focus on this season besides the league, and the fact that Conte never won the Coppa Italia in his tenure at Inter Milan, this will certainly be a competition that Napoli is focused on winning. There is some nice value here in Napoli to lift the trophy as a dark horse. Atalanta +1200: Atalanta is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Atalanta has been in great form entering December as they currently sit in 2nd place of the league table. They have been playing well in Champions League too, but right now they are in the title race for Serie A and that is something that does not happen often for them. As long as they are near the top of the table, they will be focused on the league to try and win their 1st ever Serie A Title since they have never done so. They are also playing well in Champions League and were the Europa League champions last season so Champions League is also going to be high on their list of priorities. With Atalanta being more focused on those 2 bigger competitions, this is a competition they could see themselves fizzle out in, especially since they do not have a good history in the competition either. The only Coppa Italia that Atalanta has ever won came back in 1963, over 60 years ago. They have been the runners up 5 times which includes last season and twice in the last 4 years, but they always come up short. Atalanta has a lot of quality on their side, but this is not going to be a competition they are fully focused on and they do not have the depth to make a deep run here with more important competitions to worry about. They have come close to winning the Coppa Italia in recent years, but this is not going to be one of those seasons. There is no real value in Atalanta to win this competition with the other ones taking focus away.  RecommendationThis competition has been very straightforward over the last few seasons as it has generally been dominated by a handful of teams with a few exceptions here and there. It is usually the same group of teams that are always a threat in this competition, but only 1 club can win it all and there are external factors that affect each team's focus and motivation. This season, Juventus at +350 has the best value for a team to lift the trophy as they are the most dominant club in the competition and have yet to lose a match this season making them a very difficult out in competitions like this where a team must advance. Napoli at +600 is also a great dark horse though since the motivation is going to be there with the new manager and they do not have any other competitions to play in that will take their focus away, allowing them to put out the best lineup for these matches. Juventus at +350 and Napoli at +600 are the 2 best options for teams to lift the Coppa Italia this season, and it is possible that both of these clubs face each other in the Final due to the bracket.

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EFL (Carabao) Cup Futures 2024/25 Season

Saturday, Nov 30, 2024

The EFL Cup is entering the Quarterfinals with the 1st match taking place on December 18. There have been some quality teams that made it through, but there have also been a few surprises as well. With the competition now getting down to the final 8 teams, it is time to see who has the best chance at lifting the Carabao Cup this season.  To Win Outright Arsenal +250: Arsenal is the team with the best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Arsenal has been a dominant club over the last 2 seasons, but this year they have been struggling more as they currently sit at 5th in the Premier League table entering December. They are starting to get back into good form now, but they also have Champions League which has been taking away a lot of their focus as well. They have been one of the dominant teams in the league the last 2 seasons, but they always fell short and did not have the squad depth to make a run in European competition either. Now with their early struggles in the league and still with Champions League to focus on, this competition is not going to be very high on their list of priorities. They are up against Crystal Palace in the Quarterfinals, but they have not really played any quality teams in this competition with their last 2 wins coming against Preston and Bolton in the previous rounds. They will also have to match up with the winner of Tottenham/Man Utd in the next round so neither of those teams are going to be an easy pass either. This is not a competition that Arsenal has had success in either, winning just 2 EFL Cups in their club history, the last one coming in 1993. Arsenal does not have a lot of value to lift the trophy at this price.  Liverpool +275: Liverpool is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Liverpool has been a dominant team in the Premier League for years, but recently they have been coming up short over the last few seasons. Klopp decided to leave the team before the season as he was looking for a break from the sport, but their new manager has them going in the right direction. The quality has not changed much from last season, but the team itself sure has as they are currently leading the Premier League entering December and they have a large lead as well. They have the best defense in the league right now as they are the only team that has not conceded 10 goals this season, and they also have one of the better attacks. They also have Champions League to worry about, but they have been dominant in that competition as well and after playing 2nd fiddle to Man City the last few years, they are going to be focused on winning the Treble this year as they have a real chance to clean house in a all of these competitions. The quality is there as well as the depth and this team has not shown any signs of slowing down with their new manager. This is also a competition they have had a lot of success in as Liverpool actually has the most EFL Cups in the history of the competition. They have won 10 EFL Cups in their club history and they are also the defending champions from last season, winning it twice in the last 3 years. Liverpool is the best team in England right now and might even be the best team in Europe. There is a lot of value in Liverpool to lift the trophy this season as it is their competition to lose.  Newcastle +450: Newcastle is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Newcastle has been struggling in the Premier League this season as they currently sit in the middle of the table entering December and have never been the same as that team that went to Champions League seasons ago. They have quality in their squad but injuries have been an ongoing problem for the club over the years and it has affected their depth in these competitions. They do not have any European competitions to worry about this season so they will have more energy to focus on this, but they are not doing so well in the Premier League either so that is also a priority to them, finishing high in the table to be in European competition for next season. They have been very inconsistent this season and also have one of the weaker attacks in the league. They have had a tough path to get here as they did get through Nottingham Forest and Chelsea, but Brentford is also a bit of a wild card like Newcastle so they are not going to be an easy out in this round. Even if Newcastle gets through Brentford, they could have a date with Liverpool in the next round and that is no easy match to get through either. Newcastle does not have the quality to compete with some of the better teams in the competition right now and they have been too inconsistent to be trusted to make a deep run. This is not a competition they have had success in either as they have never won the EFL Cup and have only been to the Final twice, losing to Man Utd in 2023 and the other appearance being in 1976. Newcastle really should not be the 3rd best option to lift this trophy, there is no real value in them at this price.  Tottenham +500: Tottenham is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Tottenham is not having a great season as they currently sit in the middle of the table entering December. They do have one of the better attacks in the Premier League this season as well as having a good defense too, but they have been inconsistent in their matches with other competitions like Europa League to worry about as well. The team has a lot of quality and they have made strides over the last 2 seasons with their newer manager Postecoglou, but they have also been very erratic on defense with their high line coming back to bite them at times. Even in their recent matches going into December, they have fallen out of form a bit with their defense starting to concede more goals. They did have a tough challenge in the last round as they kicked out Man City, but Man Utd is not going to be an easier opponent as they have found new life under their new manager and also have a very good record in this competition. The next round could see a date with Arsenal as well so Tottenham does not have an easy path to the Final and it will take a toll on them with the other competitions taking away focus as well. Tottenham is 6th on the all-time list with 4 EFL Cups as well as being runners up 5 times, but the last time they actually won this competition was back in 2008. Tottenham has a good team but they are too inconsistent so there is no real value in them to lift the trophy at this price.  Manchester United +600: Manchester United is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Man Utd has been struggling a lot this season as they currently sit in the bottom half of the table entering December. They are in Europa League as well so they have that competition taking focus away, but Europa League is also not as big of a priority as a competition like Champions League would be for a club like Man Utd. They have a lot of quality on their team as well, but they have not been performing and it has been an ongoing problem going back to last season. They have finally fixed the issue though, sacking their manager a few weeks ago, and now they have been in great form since the sacking. They have played 6 matches under their new manager with 4 wins and no losses in that span. Their attack has been flowing much better in these matches which is key since they have a lot of quality attackers in their squad, but the defense has also tightened up as well. Everything is moving in the right direction for Man Utd and this new manager, and this is a great morale booster to try and win this competition and show the results to the players which will help them buy into the new methods. Man Utd has had a very easy path in this competition so far and now have to play Tottenham in the Quarterfinals, but Man Utd is playing like the more stable team right now and they have a lot more depth than Tottenham as well. They could see Arsenal in the next round which will not be easy, but they have the talent to beat a club like that and this new manager could be exactly what they need to push themselves over the line. Either way, this is a great competition for the new manager to focus on, and it is a competition they have had a lot of success in as well. Man Utd is 3rd on the all-time list with 6 EFL Cups with their most recent one coming just 2 seasons ago in 2023. They have also won 2 EFL Cups in the last 8 seasons as well. Man Utd is on the right path with their new manager and they very well could be a dark horse in this competition. There is some good value in Man Utd to lift the trophy at this price.  RecommendationThere are some quality teams left in this competition, but a lot of external factors can also affect how teams play in this competition and apply their focus on it. Out of all the teams left, there is 1 team that is clearly on a roll right now and has been the best team in the league all season by far. Liverpool at +275 is the best option to lift this trophy with the form they have been in all season, but Man Utd at +600 is also a good option with their new manager boost. Man Utd makes a good dark horse as well since they can end up in the final with Liverpool. The best options here for a team to lift the EFL Cup this season are Liverpool at +275 and Manchester United at +600.

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MLS Cup Futures 2024

Friday, Oct 25, 2024

The MLS Playoffs are here with the 1st Round kicking off on Friday, October 25, 2024. Atlanta defeated Montreal in penalties after a 2-2 draw in the Wild Card to earn the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference while Vancouver defeated Portland 5-0 in the Wild Card to earn the 8th seed in the Western Conference. The 1st Round of the playoffs will start on Friday with it being a best 2 out of 3 series, each team getting 1 home match and if a 3rd match is needed to decide who advances, the higher seed would have the home advantage in that 3rd match. The Conference Semifinals, the Conference Finals, and the MLS Cup Finals will all be a single match knockout round with the higher seed getting the home advantage. Now that the MLS Playoffs are finally here, it is time to see who has the best chance of getting through to the Finals and winning the MLS Cup.  To Win Outright Inter Miami +150: Inter Miami is coming into the MLS Playoffs as the team with the best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. Inter Miami won the Supporters’ Shield this season as they finished with a 22-8-4 record this season, giving them 74 points total which was 8 more points than the 2nd place team. They also had the 2nd best goal differential this season at +30, scoring 79 goals in their 34 matches and allowing 49 goals. They were 2nd for GD but they were the highest scoring team in the MLS this season with 79 goals, scoring 7 more than the 2nd place team. Inter Miami has completely turned this club around since Lionel Messi’s arrival and there were already big signs near the end of last season that this club was due for some major improvement this year. They finished the regular season winning 3 straight matches and do not have a loss in their last 9 straight either so they are coming into the playoffs with some momentum. Inter Miami won the Leagues Cup last season but they were not able to make a run and get in the playoffs after Messi’s arrival later in the season. This season, they were knocked out of the Leagues Cup, but now they are in the playoffs as the number 1 seed and motivation will be at an all-time high as this is a trophy that Messi is still missing in his trophy case. Miami has been the best team in the MLS all season and with the quality they have in their squad, they can beat any team in the playoffs and make a run to win the whole thing. There is value in Inter Miami to win the MLS Cup at this price.  Los Angeles Galaxy +350: The LA Galaxy is coming into the MLS playoffs as the team with the next best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. The Galaxy finished the regular season as the 2nd place team in the Western Conference and the 4th place team in the overall table. They were 19-8-7 this season which gave them 64 points and they also had a +19 goal differential, scoring 69 goals in their 34 matches and allowing 50 goals. They finished the regular season in good form as they lost their last match but did win 3 of their last 4. They have an easier matchup in the 1st Round as well, going up against Colorado who is a team that has struggled with the Galaxy in recent meetings. The Galaxy should have no problem getting through Colorado, but their defense has not been playing well in their matches as they have been conceding a lot of goals down this final stretch of the season. There are also plenty of good quality teams in the Western Conference that can put up a fight with the Galaxy, and their defense will become a much bigger issue deeper in the playoffs when they hit the single leg matches. They do have a very strong attack, but there are plenty of teams with strong attacks in the Western Conference as well so there is nothing really separating this club from the others with that struggling defense. LA Galaxy has had a great season as they have improved a lot from last season, but there is no real value in them to lift the trophy at this price.  Columbus Crew +650: The Columbus Crew is coming into the MLS playoffs as the team with the next best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. Columbus finished the regular season as the 2nd place team in the Eastern Conference and they were also the 2nd place team in the overall table. They were 19-9-6 this season which gave them 66 points and they had a goal differential of +32 which was the best GD in the MLS this year. They scored 72 goals in their 34 matches and had the 4th best defense in the league with 40 goals allowed. They are also the defending MLS Cup champions from last season and won the Leagues Cup earlier this year as well. Columbus also reached the CONCACAF Champions Cup Final earlier this season, but they lost to Pachuca. They have been in good form to end the season as they won their last 3 straight matches, but their last loss in the league was at home to Miami and that is going to be a big obstacle for them. Columbus has been a dominant force in the MLS over the last year and they have a good chance at getting to the Conference Final, but that is where they could see some trouble with Inter Miami on the other side of this Eastern Conference bracket. Despite their domination over the last year, Columbus has only won 1 of their last 6 meetings with Miami and that 1 win came in a Leagues Cup match which was the only match in that span that was not an MLS match. Miami has been a thorn in Columbus’ side recently and as long as Miami is alive and well in these playoffs, the defending champions have no real value to repeat at this price.  Los Angeles FC +700: LAFC is coming into the MLS playoffs as the team with the next best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. LA finished the regular season as the number 1 seed in the Western Conference and they were 3rd place in the overall table as well. They were 19-7-8 this season which gave them 64 points and they had a +20 goal differential which was the 3rd best in the league. They scored 63 goals in their 34 matches and allowed 43 goals in those. They have been on fire to end the season as they have won 6 straight matches and their defense has been much better in those as well. They have only allowed 2 goals in their last 4 matches while scoring 2+ goals in 5 of their last 6 and they are going to be a very tough out in these playoffs. This is not the same LAFC team that has dominated the MLS over the last few years, but they did a great job with their new team to rebound from their poor start and now they are in some of their best form that they have been in all season. They have momentum coming into this round and they have some teams in their path that they have been dominant over in recent meetings. This may not be the exact same team, but they still have the championship pedigree in LA and there is a lot of value in them at this price as they have a very good chance of getting to the Final.  Seattle Sounders +1600: Seattle is coming into the MLS playoffs as the team with the next best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. Seattle finished the regular season in 4th place of the Western Conference and they were 7th place in the overall table. They were 16-9-9 this season which gave them 57 points and they had a +16 goal differential. They scored 51 goals in their 34 matches this season and they had the best defense in the league with only 35 goals allowed. They have been in very good form to end the season, winning 3 of their last 4 as well as 5 of their last 7 matches with no losses in that span. Their defense has been great in these matches as well, allowing just 1 goal in their last 4 matches while also keeping 5 clean sheets in their last 7. They have also scored 1 goal or less in 3 of their last 4 matches and that is going to be a problem they face in these playoffs. They have the great defense to carry them through the playoffs, but they have struggled with stronger attacking teams this season and they do not have the attack to play from behind in matches, especially a single leg knockout type of match. They also have the possibility of facing LAFC in the next round if they get past Houston, and LAFC is a team that has dominated them thoroughly over the last few years. Seattle’s defense does make them a possible dark horse to surprise and get through the Western Conference, but they also had the best defense in the league last season and struggled once they got to the playoffs, getting knocked out by LAFC in a 1-0 match. Their defense is great but their attack is not so they are not a complete enough team to make it to the Final. There is no real value in Seattle at this price.  FC Cincinnati +2000: Cincinnati is coming into the MLS playoffs as the team with the next best chance at lifting the MLS Cup according to the oddsmakers. They finished the regular season in 3rd place of the Eastern Conference and they were 5th place in the overall table. They were 18-5-11 this season which gave them 59 points and they had a +10 goal differential. They scored 58 goals in their 34 matches this season while allowing 48 goals in those, but they were also the only team in the top 7 of the MLS with double digit losses on the season. They do not have a lot of momentum coming into the playoffs either as they have not been in good form recently. They won their final match of the regular season, but they have lost 3 of their last 4 matches and their defense has been atrocious as well, conceding 2+ goals in 4 of their last 5 matches. Cincinnati was a much better team in the league last season and a lot of that was due to their great defense. Their defense has not been nearly as good this season and that is going to cause problems with some of the strong attacking teams they will have to face in the Eastern Conference. Cincinnati blew their chance to win the MLS Cup last season and they have not recovered from that as they have been struggling all season with very inconsistent performances from match to match. There are much better teams in the Eastern Conference this year and the poor defensive play will be the downfall of this Cincinnati team. There is no real value in Cincinnati at this price.  RecommendationThere are plenty of good teams this season on both sides of the bracket, but only 1 team can lift the MLS Cup this year and there are 2 very good contenders that stick out from the rest. Inter Miami at +150 is the best choice with their dominance all season and their hunger to get Messi a trophy that is missing from his trophy case. The next best choice would be LAFC at +700 as they have been the dominant team in the MLS over the last few seasons and still look like one of the most complete teams coming out of the West this season with both their attack and defense. Inter Miami at +150 is the best choice to make here but if looking to hedge with a Western Conference team, LAFC at +700 is the next best choice as there is a good chance that could be the Final this season. 

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MLS Cup Specials 2024

Friday, Oct 25, 2024

The MLS Playoffs are here with the 1st Round kicking off on Friday, October 25, 2024. Atlanta defeated Montreal in penalties after a 2-2 draw in the Wild Card to earn the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference while Vancouver defeated Portland 5-0 in the Wild Card to earn the 8th seed in the Western Conference. The 1st Round of the playoffs will start on Friday with it being a best 2 out of 3 series, each team getting 1 home match and if a 3rd match is needed to decide who advances, the higher seed would have the home advantage in that 3rd match. The Conference Semifinals, the Conference Finals, and the MLS Cup Finals will all be a single match knockout round with the higher seed getting the home advantage. Now that the MLS Playoffs are finally here, it is time to see what value lies with the side markets for this competition.  To Reach Final Inter Miami -175: Inter Miami currently sits at -175 to reach the MLS Cup Final and they have been the best team in the league all season. They won the Supporters’ Shield this season as they finished with a 22-8-4 record, giving them 74 points total which was 8 more points than the 2nd place team. They also had the 2nd best goal differential this season at +30, scoring 79 goals in their 34 matches and allowing 49 goals. They were 2nd for GD but they were the highest scoring team in the MLS this season with 79 goals, scoring 7 more than the 2nd place team. The only real threat to them in the Eastern Conference this season would be the Columbus Crew who have also been very dominant over the last year and are the defending champions from last season. Columbus knocked Miami out of the Leagues Cup earlier this season, but that is also their only win against Miami in their last 6 meetings. They have no wins against Miami in their last 5 straight MLS matches and Miami did not make the playoffs last season so it was not a problem they had to deal with. Inter Miami is hungry to win the MLS Cup this season so Messi can add that to his long list of accomplishments and the only threatening team is a team that they have not had much trouble with in recent meetings. Inter Miami is the best team in the Eastern Conference by far so there is value at this price for them to reach the Final. Los Angeles FC +275: LAFC currently sits at +275 to reach the MLS Cup Final and they are actually the number 1 seed in the Western Conference. They finished the regular season in 3rd place in the overall table as well. They were 19-7-8 this season which gave them 64 points and they had a +20 goal differential which was the 3rd best in the league. They scored 63 goals in their 34 matches and allowed 43 goals in those. LAFC has been the dominant club in the MLS over the last few seasons and even with their squad changing quite a bit for this year, they have proved themselves again in the Western Conference. They did not win the MLS Cup last season, but they still made it to the Final which they lost to Columbus. The championship pedigree is there and they have been in great form down the final stretch of the regular season, getting themselves ready for this playoff push. They have been very balanced recently with both their attack and their defense which makes them one of the most complete teams coming out of the West right now. They also have a nice pathway in the first 2 rounds as they are going to be facing some teams that have struggled a lot against them in recent meetings. There are not many teams that can beat this LAFC team with the form they have been in recently and they are going to have home advantage throughout the entire Western side of the bracket which will be a big boost for them as well. There is some good value in LAFC to reach the Final at this price as they have a very good chance of getting back there again.  To Reach Conference Semifinals New York City FC +120: New York City FC is currently sitting at +120 to get out of the 1st Round against Cincinnati. NYCFC finished the season as the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference, going 14-8-12 with 50 points while Cincinnati is the 3rd seed at 18-5-11 with 59 points. Cincinnati had a better goal differential this season by 5 goals, but the 2 were very similar as NYCFC scored 54 goals and allowed 49 goals while Cincinnati scored 58 goals and allowed 48 goals. Cincinnati does not have a lot of momentum coming into this series either as they have not been in good form to end the season and their defense specifically has been awful. NYCFC has been the complete opposite, winning 3 of their last 4 matches to end the regular season, and they had to work to secure their spot in the final weeks as well. Their defense has not been great, but their attack will be able to match Cincinnati in this series. NYCFC has struggled a lot against Cincinnati in recent meetings, but NYCFC did win the last meeting 3-2 just a few weeks ago and they have been the team in better form recently. Cincinnati has declined a lot from last season and defense was their bread and butter last year, something that has not been the case this season. With the way NYCFC has been playing leading up to these playoffs, they have some value at this price to knock out Cincinnati.  Minnesota United +125: Minnesota United is currently sitting at +125 to get out of this 1st Round against Real Salt Lake. Minnesota is the 6th seed in the Western Conference, going 15-7-12 with 52 points while Real Salt Lake is the 3rd seed at 16-11-7 with 59 points. Salt Lake finished with the better goal differential by 8 goals as they had a stronger attack this season, scoring 65 goals compared to Minnesota scoring 58 goals, but their defense was not any better by much as they allowed 48 goals to Minnesota’s 49. Minnesota was a very strong team to start the season as well, but they were derailed midseason by injuries and international competitions which took much needed players away from their squad, and it showed in their performances. They were able to get back in great form down the final stretch of the regular season though and they have been playing like one of the better teams in the league recently. They ended the season winning 4 of their last 5 matches with no losses in that span and their attack scored 2+ goals in 3 of those 5 matches. Their defense has seen real improvement though, allowing just 1 goal in their last 5 matches. Salt Lake has also been in good form recently, but they ended the season with 3 draws in their last 5 matches and they have also drawn their last 4 straight meetings with Minnesota. Draws were a big problem for Real Salt Lake this season as they left a lot of points on the table and were the only Western Conference team to make the bracket with double digit draws on the season. These will come back to bite them against a good defensive team like Minnesota as draws will be settled by penalties in this 1st round and that is when anything can happen. Minnesota has been the team in better form recently with a much better defense and that is the key factor here which gives Minnesota some good value to get out of this 1st Round and knock out Real Salt Lake.  Charlotte FC +150: Charlotte is currently sitting at +150 to get out of this 1st Round against Orlando City. Charlotte is the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference, going 14-9-11 with 51 points while Orlando City is the 4th seed at 15-7-12 with 52 points. Orlando only finished with 1 more point than Charlotte had and they both had goal differentials of +9. Orlando has had the much better attack all season as they scored 59 goals compared to Charlotte’s 46 goals, but Orlando was not good on defense as they allowed 50 goals this season while Charlotte had the best defense in the Eastern Conference, only allowing 37 goals in their 34 matches. That defense is going to be key in this series and they have also been in great form down the final stretch as they still needed to earn their spot in the final weeks. They ended the regular season winning their last 3 straight as well as 4 of their last 5 matches with no losses in that span, and they also kept 3 clean sheets in those 5 matches as well, allowing none in their final 2 matches. Their attack has been on fire in that span as well so they will be able to put up a fight against this Orlando defense that has conceded a lot. Orlando has also been in good form to end the season, but they have 2 losses in their last 5 matches and they have not kept a clean sheet in any of those either. Their attack has been very good, but they will struggle more against a better Charlotte defense while also struggling to keep Charlotte out. Orlando actually won the last meeting between these two just a few weeks ago, winning 2-0 at home, but that is also their only win over Charlotte in their last 5 meetings. Charlotte has been in better form to end the season and they have also been the much better team on defense all year which gives them some value at this price to knock Orlando out of the playoffs. 

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UEFA Conference League (2024/25 Season)

Monday, Sep 30, 2024

The UEFA Conference League is set to kick off for the season with the start of the League Phase on Wednesday, October 2. This is only the 4th edition of the competition as it was first introduced in the 2021/22 season, but there have already been some big changes to the format due to the changes in both Champions League and Europa League. Olympiacos is the current champion of the competition, but that win earned them a spot in Europa League so there will be a new champion this season. This is also going to be the first year of the competition that no new teams can drop down from Europa League so the winner of this competition this season has to come from this field of clubs as there will be no new clubs added later on. In previous years, there was a very good chance that the winner of the competition was not even going to be a team that started in the competition, but now with the new format, that is no longer the case. With that in mind, it is time to see who has the best chance of taking home the Conference League Title for the 2024/25 season.  To Win Outright Chelsea +175: Chelsea is coming into this competition as the team with the best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Chelsea is under new management this season and after years of turbulence between all of the signings of players and the revolving door of managers, they have finally found some stability this season. They have picked their core group of players to build around and they are off to a very good start this season, sitting in 4th in the Premier League after 6 matches this season. The Premier League is going to be a big focus for them this year as they will be pushing to win the Premier League Title or at least finish top 4 to secure a Champions League spot, but this will also be a good competition for them to focus on. They were not in any European competitions last season so they will use this competition as a way to get used to playing those extra midweek matches. Chelsea has one of the better squads in this whole competition, possibly even the best squad, but playing in the Premier League could take its toll. Chelsea has a lot of quality and they could be in the race for the top 4 near the end of the season. Winning this title will be a focus for them, but that only gets them into Europa League next season, so if they are in a position to make the top 4 in the Premier League this year and earn a Champions League spot instead, their focus could turn away from this competition to avoid fatigue down the stretch. Chelsea has the best squad in the competition, but there are many factors late in the season that could affect how they play deeper in the tournament. There are also some very good smaller clubs that Chelsea could overlook deeper into the competition and that is something that has been a factor for these bigger clubs in these smaller tournaments. Chelsea has some value at this price to lift the trophy, considering their squad strength and depth. Real Betis +400: Real Betis is coming into this competition as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Real Betis has a very good squad, but they are off to a shaky start in La Liga. They have been in better form recently and have the potential to be a very dangerous team once they get going, but they also have a lot of liability in this competition. La Liga is always a bigger focus for this club as there is usually the 4th place spot up for grabs in their domestic league so getting to Champions League is always going to be their priority. They played very well in their 1 qualifying round to make it to this League Phase, but they struggled in the competition last season when put up against better squads. They were actually in Europa League last season and only finished 3rd in the group stage, finishing behind Rangers and Sparta Prague who are both bigger clubs from smaller leagues, and then they dropped down to the Conference League playoffs which they lost to Dinamo Zagreb in. Real Betis has also struggled in away matches in their own domestic league this season so traveling to these other countries for their matches is going to take a toll on them. They do have a more favorable path to get through the League Phase, but the knockout rounds is where they are going to struggle and it will not take much to get them knocked out with their away troubles. Real Betis has the squad to make a deep run in this competition, but they do not have what it takes to go all the way and they will eventually run into a better club that bests them. There is no real value at this price for Real Betis to lift the trophy.  Fiorentina +500: Fiorentina is coming into this competition as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Fiorentina made some moves to improve their team in the transfer window, but it has not paid off this season. They are off to an awful start in Serie A this season with just 1 win in their first 6 matches. They also have just 1 loss in that span though, drawing many of their matches to start the season, and even when they were in the qualifying round for this competition, they drew both legs with Puskas before advancing in penalties. It is only a matter of time until Fiorentina gets themselves back on track, but they are still a very inconsistent team. Their ability to come away with a lot of draws will both help them and hurt them in this competition as well. One big advantage that they have is that they have been to the Final twice in the 3 seasons of this competition's existence, but they have lost in the Final both times, including last season. They know what they need to do to make a deep run and they have the quality to do so, but their inconsistencies will hurt them down the stretch. They also like to play with fire by relying on draws too much and it does not take much for an outcome to be flipped on its head in a penalty shootout. Their experience in the competition makes them a serious threat to go to the Final, but there are better squads in this tournament that could give them a lot of trouble in different rounds so there is no real value in Fiorentina to lift the trophy this season.  Istanbul Basaksehir +2500: Istanbul Basaksehir is not the next best team to win this competition according to the oddsmakers, but they are a club with some real value. After clubs from Serie A and the Premier League won the first 2 editions of this competition, the current champion is actually a club from Greece, Olympiacos, even beating out Aston Villa and Fiorentina on their run to lift the trophy. Istanbul Basaksehir is a club from Turkiye and it is not a far reach to see another club from a smaller league win the title this season. The Turkiye Super Lig is a very strong league with clubs like Galatasaray and Fenerbahce who make a splash in Europe every year, and Istanbul Basaksehir is already off to a strong start this season. They have built a very strong squad that can play with the best in this competition. They have a very potent attack that is averaging over 2 goals scored per match in their own domestic league and that also holds true in the 6 qualifying matches they had to play for this tournament. They won 5 of their 6 qualifying matches with no losses in that span and their defense has been just as good as their attack. They only allowed 1 goal in their 6 qualifying matches and they have had no trouble winning matches away from home as well. The Turkiye Super Lig is always going to be on their minds if they are in a position to win it, but recently it has been dominated by teams like Galatasaray and Fenerbahce so Istanbul Basaksehir is going to be focused on doing well here. They also missed out on European competition altogether last season so they are going to be more focused than ever being back in it, and they will not take any matches for granted. Istanbul Basaksehir has a lot of value at this price as they have a very good chance at making a deep run here and winning it all.  RecommendationThe Conference League has always been tough to predict as the winner of the competition might not even be in it from the start, but now with the new format, one of these clubs has to take home the trophy. Considering the strength of their squad and the depth they have, Chelsea at +175 really is the best option of all the big clubs in the competition so there is some value there. Istanbul Basaksehir at +2500 has a lot of value as a dark horse though since they play in a very tough league, making them battle tested for the stronger teams, and they have also rebuilt their squad better than ever with more motivation after missing out on Europe last season. Chelsea at +175 and Istanbul Basaksehir at +2500 to win the UEFA Conference League this season.

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UEFA Conference League 2024/25 Season (League Phase)

Monday, Sep 30, 2024

The UEFA Conference League is set to kick off for the season with the start of the League Phase on Wednesday, October 2. This is only the 4th edition of the competition as it was first introduced in the 2021/22 season, but there have already been some big changes to the format due to the changes in both Champions League and Europa League. Olympiacos is the current champion of the competition, but that win earned them a spot in Europa League so there will be a new champion this season. This is also going to be the first year of the competition that no new teams can drop down from Europa League so the winner of this competition this season has to come from this field of clubs as there will be no new clubs added later on. The group stage is no more as well, replaced with a League Phase consisting of 36 teams. The top 8 will move on to the Round of 16 while the 9-24 spots of the League Phase will be seeded and play each other in a play-off style round with a home leg for each to decide who will advance to the Round of 16. 25-36 will be eliminated from the competition. Every team will play 6 matches in the League Phase, 3 home as well as 3 away, and no teams will play the same twice. With that in mind, it is time to see who has the best chance of topping all 36 teams with the best record in the League Phase. League Phase Winner Chelsea +250: Chelsea is coming into the League Phase of this competition as the team with the best chance to win according to the oddsmakers. Chelsea is also the favorite to win the whole competition this season and they do have the best squad of all the teams. Their quality and depth is unmatched and that will make it easier for them early on in this competition to do well as they are juggling early season matches in the Premier League as well. They are still finding their way this season, but they have improved a lot with their new manager and are already threatening in their own domestic league, making them the best team in this competition right now as they play in the strongest league. They also have a very favorable path in the League Phase with a lot of their matches coming against much weaker teams that should not give them any trouble. They have played well away from home in the Premier League as well, so away performance will not be an issue against these weaker teams, and they also have a very potent attack that can bail them out of matches if their defense is not at its best. Their toughest match in the League Phase will be an away match against Panathinaikos, but they could still get points from that match whether it be a win or draw. Every other match on their schedule is winnable as well, so there is a very good chance that Chelsea is sitting at 15+ points after their 6 matches of the League Phase and that would be a very tough performance to beat for any other team. There is a lot of value in Chelsea at this price to win the League Phase.  Real Betis +450: Real Betis is coming into the League Phase of this competition as the team with the next best chance to win according to the oddsmakers. Real Betis has a very good squad that is one of the better teams in this competition. They have been playing much better in their own domestic league as well, so they will continue to improve as the season goes on. They have already impressed in this competition in their qualifying matches, winning 5-0 on aggregate and winning both legs against Kryvbas. Real Betis has struggled away from home in their own domestic league though, so that could be an issue in this competition as they do play their best at home. They have a very favorable schedule in the League Phase that makes them a contender to finish atop the field. Their toughest match in the League Phase is their match against Kobenhavn, the match is at home which will help Real Betis a lot, but it is by no means an easy 3 points either. They do not have a lot of difficult away matches so that will help a lot as they are going to be at their best early on in this competition when the opponents are weaker, but they are still not a sound away team so anything could happen in those matches. They are probably the best team to give Chelsea a competition for 1st place in the League Phase, but there is more liability with their ability away from home, leaving Chelsea as the best choice still. There is some value in Real Betis at this price though as there is a good chance they will finish in 2nd behind Chelsea.  Fiorentina +500: Fiorentina is coming into the League Phase of this competition as the team with the next best chance to win according to the oddsmakers. Fiorentina has a lot of experience in this competition as they lost in the Final last season and the season prior. They know how to make deep runs and conserve their squad as they get deeper into the competition, but that is not going to help them in this League Phase with the style of their play. They have not been in good form to start the new season, they made some improvements with their squad but the results have not been coming in. They are not losing many matches, but they are not winning many matches either, and playing out all of those draws will hurt them in this League Phase where wins are needed for points. In a field of 36 teams, drawing all 6 matches is not going to get a team through to the next round so Fiorentina will have to push for wins which is something they have been struggling to find. Their good defensive play can only take them so far and even if they get the points to advance, they will not be much of a threat to finish at the top of the League Phase. Their defensive tendencies will also hurt them in the League Phase even if they win a lot of matches and end up near the top as they will not have the goal differential with slim wins to beat out teams who have the same points but much stronger attacks. Goals are going to be important to break ties in this new League Phase format and that is just not the strength of this Fiorentina side. There is not a lot of value in Fiorentina to win the League Phase at this price. RecommendationThere are plenty of good teams from smaller leagues in this competition and some of them are going to make some surprising deep runs in this tournament, but the League Phase is not where these smaller clubs are going to excel. The League Phase is designed more for the stronger teams to dominate so the bigger clubs that play in stronger leagues are going to benefit more from this new format. Realistically, there are only 2 teams that have the squad strength and squad depth to finish perfect or with 5+ wins, those 2 clubs being Chelsea and Real Betis. Chelsea at +250 and Real Betis at +450 both have some great value to win the League Phase with Chelsea being the better option. They are the two strongest teams in the competition this season, but they also have very favorable paths in the League Phase. If they manage to finish with the same number of points, Chelsea is still the better option as they have the stronger attack which will help out their goal differential more. Chelsea at +250 and Real Betis at +450 to win the League Phase of the Conference League. 

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Champions League Futures (2024/25 Season)

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

The Champions League qualifiers have concluded and with that comes the start of the Champions League season on Tuesday, September 17. Real Madrid are the defending champions of the competition, but this season they will be rolling out a new format for the early stages. There will no longer be a group stage but instead it will be replaced by a league phase where all teams play 8 random matches decided by the draw, 4 home and 4 away, and all teams will have to fight for points to finish in the top 24. The top 8 will automatically qualify while the top 9-24 will have to play in a play-off. With the start of the competition just around the corner now, it is time to see who has the best chance of winning the Champions League Title this season.  To Win Outright Manchester City +200: Manchester City is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Man City fell short in Champions League last season but they did win the Premier League Title and they still have one of the better squads in all of Europe. Getting back to the Champions League Final will be a big focus for this team this season and they have both the quality and the depth to do so. They have a very nice path in the league phase which could make them the top finisher after 8 matches, but the knockouts are where they could run into some trouble. There are few teams that can give Man City trouble and there is a very good chance that they could end up back in the Final this year, but there is a better option when betting on a team to win this competition. Real Madrid, the defending champions, are a team that has given Man City trouble in the past and if they run into them at any point, Man City could see themselves out of the competition. They have not had the same success in this competition throughout the years either, only winning the 1 Title just 2 seasons ago. There is some value in Man City to win at this price, but they are not the team with the most value in this competition.  Real Madrid +350: Real Madrid is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Real Madrid are the defending champions from last season, but they have the quality and the depth in their squad to repeat as champions. They have owned European competition over the last decade and have been very successful in Champions League specifically. The hunger is still going to be there for this team as well, now that they have brought in more talent to improve their already fantastic squad even more. The big signing for Real Madrid this summer was Kylian Mbappe so there is going to be hunger to win Champions League again as Mbappe will be looking to do what he failed to do at PSG for years and win the Champions League Title. Real Madrid still has one of the better squads in all of Europe and they even went out improving it this summer with more quality and depth. The motivation will be there and even when they have struggled in league play, they are always a different team when it comes to Champions League as this is the desired competition for them to win. Real Madrid has a lot of value at this price to repeat as champions and lift the trophy once again.  Arsenal +800: Arsenal is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Arsenal has a very good squad this season and they are off to a strong start in the Premier League. They have the quality and the depth in their squad to make a deep run in this tournament, but last season they struggled and they do not have the experience yet to be consistent like some of the other clubs who dominate. Arsenal has a very good defense that will carry them far, but their attack can struggle to break down opposing defenses at times and that will be a big issue the deeper they go as the defenses get better. Arsenal could very well make a deep run in this tournament, but getting to the Final will be a difficult task for them as they do not have the Champions League pedigree. There is some value in Arsenal at this price, but eventually they will run into a stronger team that takes them out, they are not a true contender to win this competition this season.  Bayern Munich +1200: Bayern Munich is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Bayern Munich made a deep run in Champions League last season, but they were stopped short in the Semi Final by Real Madrid who went on to win the tournament. Bayern once again has a very talented squad with lots of quality and depth, but they have a lot to focus on this season which could leave them in a bit of disarray. Champions League is going to be a big focus for them after getting stopped by the champions in the Semi Final last season, but their focus is also going to be on other competitions as well. Last year, they failed to win the Bundesliga Title as Leverkusen took that from them, and they were also knocked out in the 2nd round of the DFB Pokal, leaving Bayern trophyless for the first time in years. They are going to be focused on winning this competition, but they are also going to be focused on taking the league title back so that could affect them deep into the season as they are making their run. They have also had defensive problems for years with the number of goals they allow, and they have not done much to address those problems which makes them a very vulnerable team deep in the tournament as the competition gets tougher. There is no real value in Bayern Munich to lift the trophy this season.  Barcelona +1200: Barcelona is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Barcelona has been a bit of a disaster both on the pitch and off over the last few years. They are slowly turning things around though and they are off to a good start in La Liga this season. They are going to be focused on winning this competition as they always are, but they have not really been a true threat in Champions League over the last few years. They have a lot of quality in their starting XI but the bench lacks quality with their depth. They have also fumbled the ball in their own domestic league over the last few years so they are also going to be focused on winning the La Liga Title. They play in the same league as the defending champions Real Madrid so Barcelona will know how to handle them in this competition, but there are other teams that can give Barcelona a lot of trouble as well. They are slowly getting themselves back on track after years of disaster and this might be the year they take La Liga back, but they are going to need some more time to build this squad if they want to be a true threat in Champions League once again. There is no real value in Barcelona to win this competition this season.  Liverpool +1400: Liverpool is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Liverpool is off to a good start in the Premier League this season and they have been one of the better teams in the league recently. They have a lot of quality and depth in their squad, but it has not changed much from last season. There have been some changes in the midfield and on defense, but the core of this team has pretty much stayed the same. The only new thing this season is their new manager who has replaced Jurgen Klopp. Liverpool has the quality to make a deep run in this competition, something they were not given a chance at last season. They were not in Champions League last season as they did not qualify, instead qualifying for Europa League. They failed to win Europa League as they were knocked out by the eventual champions Atalanta, but motivation to win a competition like Europa League is always in question for a bigger club like Liverpool that considers itself more Champions League quality. This year they are going to have the chance and after sitting out last season, motivation will be at an all-time high for them. They have struggled to compete with Man City for the Premier League Title the last few seasons, but this competition will always be a focus for them, especially with their new manager. Liverpool could very well make a deep run in this competition and go to the Final, but there are also better teams that they could run into which will give them trouble. The motivation factor along with the talent makes them a nice dark horse to win this competition as the possibility is there, but they are not the best option to lift the trophy this season.  RecommendationThere are other teams on the list who are very good teams with a lot of quality, but none of them have the quality of these top 6 contenders nor the experience to make a deep run to the Final. There are plenty of teams that have the potential to make deep runs this season, but only 1 team can lift the trophy and the defending champions still have the best shot at that with the improvements they have made. Real Madrid at +350 has the most value for a team to win this competition this season as they really do have the best chance and the strongest squad. Liverpool at +1400 has some value as a dark horse as well. 

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Champions League 2024/25 Season (League Phase Betting)

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

The Champions League qualifiers have concluded and with that comes the start of the Champions League season on Tuesday, September 17. Real Madrid are the defending champions of the competition, but this season they will be rolling out a new format for the early stages. There will no longer be a group stage but instead it will be replaced by a league phase where all teams play 8 random matches decided by the draw, 4 home and 4 away, and all teams will have to fight for points to finish in the top 24. The top 8 will automatically qualify while the top 9-24 will have to play in a play-off. With the start of the league phase just around the corner now, it is time to see what value can be found with qualifying teams in the League Phase. League Phase Winner Real Madrid +500: Real Madrid is +500 to finish the League Phase in 1st place with the most points. They are the defending champions of the competition, but they also improved their squad in the summer. They take this competition very seriously as they have dominated it over the last few years, and they also finished the group stage last season with a perfect 6-0-0 record. They have a favorable path in the League Phase with their 8 matches as well. Real Madrid could easily win all 4 of their matches against the pot 3 and pot 4 clubs that they were drawn against. There is also a very good chance that they pull away 6 points from the 2 home matches against the pot 1 and pot 2 teams. That would leave them with 18 points from 6 matches and there is a good chance they are going to get points from the 2 away matches against pot 1 and pot 2 clubs as well. Real Madrid could be sitting at the top of the league phase with 20+ points after 8 matches and they have a very good defense that will help improve their goal differential if they finish tied with any teams on points. For these reasons, there is a lot of value in Real Madrid at +500 to top the League Phase after the 8 matches have been played.  Top 8 Finish in League Phase Liverpool -138: Liverpool is -138 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase but they have a very good chance of making that happen. Liverpool did not qualify for Champions League last season as they were not a top 4 team in the Premier League the season prior, but they improved a lot last season and they are not going to take this opportunity for granted now that they are back in the competition. Focus will be very high for this squad, and they have the quality to be a top 8 finisher. The two strongest teams that they drew in the League Phase are Real Madrid and Leverkusen, but both of those matches are going to be at home which favors Liverpool as they could get some points from those. Their away matches against the pot 1 and pot 2 clubs will be tough as well, but RB Leipzig is a team they can get a point from and AC Milan is a team they could grab all 3 from, even being away from home. Then they have their matches against the pot 3 and pot 4 clubs which they could collect full points from. They have a lot more quality than teams like Girona and PSV, and their 2 stronger opponents in Bologna and Lille are both home matches. Liverpool could come out of this League Phase with around 18 points and that would be enough to get them into the top 8. There is value in Liverpool at -138 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase. Barcelona -134: Barcelona is -134 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase and they have both the quality in their squad as well as a softer path to make that happen. Their home match against Bayern Munich is going to be their toughest match on the schedule, but being at home gives them a better chance to get something from that match. They also get the Europa League champions Atalanta, but that match is also at home. Their 2 away matches against pot 1 and pot 2 clubs are against Dortmund and Benfica respectively, but those are both matches they could collect all 3 points in, or at least get something from it. Their pot 3/pot 4 draws consist of BSC Young Boys, Crvena Zvezda, Stade Brest, and Monaco. Monaco away from home will be the toughest of those 4 matches, but they could very well collect all 12 points from those matches with the quality they have. Barcelona may get tripped up in the knockout stages of this competition, but they still have a lot of quality in their starting XI and their draw in this League Phase makes them a good pick to finish in the top 8 with the softer path. There is value in Barcelona at -134 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase.  Bayer Leverkusen +130: Bayer Leverkusen is +130 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase and they are coming off of a very good season in which they were dominant. They won the Bundesliga Title as well as the DFB Pokal in their domestic league, and they also went to the Final of Europa League which they lost to Atalanta. They were a dominant team in Europa League all season though and after winning the Bundesliga Title last season, they will be turning their focus to Champions League this year. They did not improve their squad much in the summer, but they retained a lot of the quality they had last season and were considered one of the better teams in Europe all year under Xabi Alonso. They are going to be a threat in this competition and they do not have a tough path in the League Phase either. Their toughest match in the League Phase will be their away match against Liverpool. They have another tough match against Inter Milan, but that match is at home making it more likely that they still pick up points from it. Their home match against AC Milan is a match they can definitely win and their away match against Atletico Madrid could net them some points as well. Then they have away matches against Brest and Feyenoord as well as home matches against RB Salzburg and Sparta Prague, but all of those matches are winnable so there is a good chance they can take 12 points from those or at least 10. Between the quality of this squad from last season and the path they have in the League Phase, there is value in Leverkusen at +130 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase.  Atalanta +400: Atalanta is +400 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase but this is a team that has defied the odds over the last year. They had a great season in Serie A last year, finishing in 4th place, and they won the Europa League Title as well. They improved their squad by bringing in some more attacking talent when they already have a lot of quality in that area. They have also been a strong away team that has had no trouble picking up points and wins away from home, and that is going to be crucial in this League Phase qualifying. They have a bit of a gauntlet to go through with their pot 1/pot2 matches, but they still have a chance to pull some points from those. They face Arsenal and Real Madrid but both of those matches are at home which will soften the blow. They also have an away match against Barcelona which will be difficult, but their away match against Shakhtar Donetsk is definitely a winnable match. They are also going to excel against the weaker team as they face Celtic and Sturm Graz at home, both matches they should easily win, and they face BSC Young Boys as well as Stuttgart away from home, both of those being teams they can beat away from home as well. Atalanta has a very favorable path against the weaker teams and they are the Europa League champions from last season so the next step for them is to try and win Champions League this season. They may not make a deep run in the competition, but their ability to consistently pick up points away from home will be key in this tournament and they have a very good chance of finishing in the top 8 as one of the final teams. There is value in Atalanta at +400 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase.  Top Team in League Phase Domestically Bundesliga - Bayern Munich +110: Bayern Munich is +110 to finish with the most points in the League Phase out of all the teams that play in the German Bundesliga. Bayern Munich is going to be a team that finishes in the top 8 as this is a competition they will be focused on, but Champions League is also a competition that they have made some deep runs in. They went to the Semi Final last season before getting knocked out by eventual champions Real Madrid, and they are going to be a force in this League Phase with the weaker path they have. Bayern is going to be focused on being the best team in Germany this year after going trophyless last season, and they have the quality to collect around 20 points from these 8 matches. Dortmund and RB Leipzig also have tougher paths so that is going to help Bayern finish ahead in points. Leverkusen could be the closest German team to challenge them, but that will only motivate them more seeing Leverkusen’s success. Bayern has the experience to go deep into this tournament and they will dominate the League Phase as they did go 5-1-0 in last season’s group stage. There is value in Bayern Munich at +110 to finish with the most points out of all the German clubs. La Liga - Real Madrid -120: Real Madrid is -120 to finish the League Phase as the team with the most points out of all the teams that play in the Spanish La Liga. Real Madrid are the defending champions of this competition from last season, but they have also dominated Champions League over the last few years. They were a perfect 6-0-0 in the group stage last season and they have a very good chance at being the team that finishes with the most points after the League Phase out of all the teams in the competition. They improved their squad this season with even more quality and they also have a lot of depth as well. They will be focused on repeating as the champions, but they also have a much weaker path which is going to help them rack up points in the League Phase. Their pot 1/po2 matches consist of Dortmund, Liverpool, AC Milan, and Atalanta, but none of those teams are a real daunting threat for Real Madrid. There is a very good chance that they finish with around 20 points after the League Phase is done, and they even have the possibility to go a perfect 8-0-0 between the strength of the path and the strength of their squad. There is a lot of value in Real Madrid at -120 to finish the League Phase as the team with the most points out of all the teams that play in La Liga. 

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Copa Libertadores Futures 2024 (Knockout Rounds)

Sunday, Jul 28, 2024

The 2024 Copa Libertadores group stage has ended and there are plenty of familiar faces left in this competition who always make deep runs in this tournament, but there have also been a few surprise teams making it out of the group stage as well. Now with the Round of 16 matches set and ready to begin on August 13, it is time to see who still has the best chance of making a deep run to the final to lift the trophy. To Win Outright Flamengo +350: Flamengo is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the best chance to win the title according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo was picked as the team with the best chance to win in a Copa Libertadores article prior to the group stage starting, and they still have a very good chance at winning this competition as they have one of the more talented squads in all of South America. The price has not changed from +350 prior to the 2024 edition of the competition starting. Flamengo is currently one of the top teams in the Brasileirao this season, fighting for the title, and this is a competition they are going to be focused on winning as it is the most desired trophy by these bigger clubs. Flamengo has not won many trophies recently so motivation is going to be high in this tournament, and this is a competition they have had a lot of success in over recent years. They have appeared in the Final in 2 of the last 3 seasons, winning the trophy just 2 seasons ago, and they have won the competition twice in the last 5 seasons as well. Flamengo always makes a deep run in this tournament and with the talent they have in their squad, they are still the best team in the competition this season. There is value at this price for Flamengo to lift the trophy this season.  Palmeiras +400: Palmeiras is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras is another club that has had a lot of success in this tournament in recent years, making 2 appearances in the Final over the last 4 seasons and winning both times, but they have not made an appearance in the Copa Libertadores Final over the last 2 seasons and their team is not as strong this season. They have won the Brasileirao Title the last 2 straight seasons, but they have lost some of their talent this year and have struggled in the league. They still topped their group in the group stage at 4-2-0, but they are not going to have an easy opponent in the Round of 16. They will have to face another club from Brasil in their first match, playing against Botafogo, and Botafogo has been a very good team over the last 2 seasons. Botafogo was leading the title race last season before allowing Palmeiras back in it late in the year, and Botafogo is right at the top of the table in the Brasileirao once again this season. They have also won 2 of the last 3 meetings against Palmeiras over the last 2 seasons, keeping them from scoring a goal in 2 of those matches as well. This is not a great price for a Palmeiras side that has a very tough opponent right in the Round of 16 as this team could see an early exit with their squad losing talent this year as well. Even if they do get by Botafogo, Palmeiras does not have the best squad in this competition and there are other teams that could give them trouble deeper in the tournament. Palmeiras is not the best option here to lift the trophy this season.  River Plate +450: River Plate is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. River Plate is regarded as the best team in Argentina and they are definitely one of the bigger clubs with a very intimidating stadium to play in, but the results simply have not been there in any of their competitions this season to show that this is even the best team in Argentina. They struggled in the 1st phase of their domestic season as they barely topped the table by 1 point in the Copa de la Liga, but they also fizzled out in the 1st round of the playoffs, losing to the eventual champions Estudiantes. They were the clear favorite to win the LPF title this season as well, but they have struggled more in this 2nd phase of the season as they are currently sitting in 12th place after 7 matches this season in their own league table. They topped their group in the group stage of this competition at 5-1-0, but they were in a much weaker group with no clubs from Brasil or Argentina. They are not going to have an easy opponent in the Round of 16 either as they have to face Talleres who is currently in 2nd place in the league table and has been one of the better teams in Argentina all year. River Plate has struggled against Talleres as well, losing 4 of their last 6 meetings with just 1 win in that span. River Plate does not have the best squad in this tournament so even if they get past Talleres in the first round, they are going to run into a better team eventually. They have not shown in their league matches this season either that they can dominate a stronger squad from their own league. There has only been 1 club from Argentina in the Copa Libertadores Final over the last 4 seasons which was Boca Juniors last season and River Plate has not made an appearance there since 2019 when they were the runner up. They have only won the competition once in the last 8 seasons and that was back in 2018, but this is not going to be their year as they do not have the squad to do it. There is no real value in River Plate to win the competition this season.  Fluminense +700: Fluminense is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. Fluminense topped their group in the group stage at 4-2-0, but they did not play in a very strong group as there were no other clubs from Brasil or Argentina, the 2 strongest leagues in South America. They have also fallen completely out of form since the group stage and have struggled to get points in their own domestic league. Fluminense are actually the defending champions from last season as they beat Boca Juniors in the Final, but this is nowhere near the same quality team that had such a great season all around last year. They also have a tough opponent in the Round of 16 who they have struggled with a lot over the years. They will see Gremio in the Round of 16 and Gremio has not been a dominant team this season as they also lost some talent from last year, but they have been a wild card with their performances and they tend to dominate this Fluminense side. Gremio has won the last 7 straight meetings with Fluminense and Fluminense has failed to score a goal in 5 of those 7 matches. There is a very good chance that the defending champions go down in the Round of 16 but even if they do get past Gremio, they do not have the talent or depth in their squad to make a deep run in this competition. Even their win in this competition last season was the first time they have been back to the finals in 15 seasons. There is no value in Fluminense to win this competition and repeat as the champions.  Atlético Mineiro +800: Atlético Mineiro is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. They topped their group during the group stage at 5-0-1 and have been a very dominant team in this competition, but they have been starting to fall out of form recently in their domestic league. They recently hired a new manager and they have been starting to improve once again after a stretch of poor form, but they have still been very inconsistent in their matches. They have a very good squad with a lot of talent, but it has not been enough in this competition in recent years. They have struggled to get to the Final, making no appearances in the last 10 straight seasons, and they have even struggled to win the Brasileirao Title consistently. They have an easier matchup in the Round of 16, but they are still facing a club from Argentina that plays in a very strong league, and San Lorenzo also has a very good defense that can cause problems for this Atletico Mineiro attack. Even if Atletico Mineiro makes it past them, they will eventually run into a stronger team that takes them out as they usually go out before they can get to the Final. There are better teams in the tournament this year and Atletico Mineiro will fall short once again. There is no value in them to win this competition this season.  Botafogo +900: Botafogo is coming into this Round of 16 as the team with the next best chance at winning the title according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo does not have a history of going deep into this competition in recent years, but they have been improving a lot over the last 2 seasons. Last season, they were a huge threat in the Brasileirao all year as they led the table with a 10+ point lead for most of the season before collapsing in the final weeks, but they are back on top this season with one of the better teams in Brasil. They are going to be focused on going deep into this competition. They have a tough opponent in the Round of 16 as they are taking on Palmeiras who is one of the favorites to win the tournament, but Palmeiras has not been as good as their teams in previous years and Botafogo has actually beaten them twice in 3 matches over the last 2 seasons. Palmeiras has failed to score in 2 of those 3 meetings and Botafogo has a very good defense that is one of the best in Brasil. Botafogo has been steadily improving over the last few seasons and with the experience they gained from being one of the better teams in Brasil last year, they can draw from that in this competition and make a deep run. They have the talent in their squad and they have the defense to go far which will be very important in a competition like this. Botafogo is a true dark horse to win this competition this season, there is value in them to win at this price.  RecommendationThere are plenty of good teams in this competition and some that were not mentioned here, but in reality this competition has been dominated by a select few teams over the last few years so there is not going to be much room for these smaller clubs from weaker South American leagues to go deep. This competition has been dominated by clubs from Brasil and Argentina over the last few years as there has not been a club from another country in the last 7 straight Copa Libertadores Finals, and 9 of the 14 teams that have appeared in those finals have been from Brasil as well. Brasil is still the strongest league in all of South America with plenty of talented teams this year and it is very likely that the winner of this competition will come from the Brasileirao as they have in the last 5 straight Copa Libertadores Finals. Flamengo is still the best team in this competition and will be focused on winning trophies this year after falling short the last few seasons. Flamengo at +350 has value here as they are the most likely team to win the tournament this season, but Botafogo at +900 is also a very good dark horse as they have a great defense and will be a threat deep in the tournament. 

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Copa Sudamericana Futures 2024 (Knockout Rounds)

Sunday, Jul 28, 2024

The 2024 Copa Sudamericana group stage has ended and the Round of 16 is now set after the 2nd place finishers in the group stage played the 3rd place finishers from Copa Libertadores to earn a spot in this knockout round. Unlike Copa Libertadores, this tournament has not been dominated by clubs from Brasil and Argentina in recent years, and there is not a real dominant team in this competition making the tournament much more open for anyone to win. The Round of 16 will be kicking off on August 14 so it is time to see who has the best chance of lifting the Copa Sudamericana trophy this season.  To Win Outright Boca Juniors +600 and Cruzeiro +700: Boca Juniors and Cruzeiro are the 2 biggest favorites respectively to win this competition according to the oddsmakers. These two will actually face each other in the Round of 16 though so right away one of these clubs will be taken off the board after this round. These two may be the favorites in this tournament, but they are not the best teams in this competition at all. Boca Juniors has been struggling in their own domestic and are currently sitting in the bottom half of the table after 6 matches. They were not great in the Copa Sudamericana group stage either as they only finished 2nd in their group at 3-2-1 and had to play in the play-off round to make it to this Round of 16. Cruzeiro has been playing much better in their domestic league as they are currently sitting in the top 5 and have been in better form recently, but they have also been a more home dominant team which is not going to serve them well in this competition. They topped their group in the Copa Sudamericana group stage, but they were only 3-3-0 in their 6 matches and struggled to win matches against teams from weaker domestic leagues. There is too much liability here to take either of these clubs as one will be out by the end of the Round of 16, and neither team really has the squad to make a deep run in this competition either. There is not a lot of value in either of these clubs to win this competition this season.  Athletico Paranaense +900 and Fortaleza +900: Athletico PR and Fortaleza are both listed as the next 2 teams with the best chance at winning this competition according to the oddsmakers. Athletico PR had a great start to the season as they have one of the best defenses in the Brasileirao which they can lean on in this competition. They were one of the better teams to start the season as they were in such great form, but they have fallen out of form since then and have been struggling more to win matches recently. They have been slipping more in the Brasileirao recently and they did not even top their group in the Copa Sudamericana group stage. They only finished in 2nd place at 4-0-2 and they needed to play in the play-off just to make it to this round. They also finished 2nd in a much weaker group that did not have any teams from stronger leagues in South America. Fortaleza is a team that did win their group in the group stage at 4-1-1, but they have also been a very inconsistent team in their own domestic league. They are currently sitting in the top 4 of the Brasileirao as they have been in a run of great form recently, but that is not going to hold up long. They have also struggled a lot more in their away matches and they are not a team with a very strong attack. Both of these clubs are being overvalued in this competition due to being in the Brasileirao, but teams from the Brasileirao have not done well in this competition over the last few years as there are many good teams from other countries who dominate their domestic leagues and can compete with these weaker Brasilian clubs. There is not a lot of value in these two to win this competition this year. Racing Club +1200: Racing Club is not the next team on the list for winning this competition this season, but this is a team with some real value. They have been one of the better teams in Argentina this season and they are a real threat to win the LPF Title. They have a very strong home advantage as they rarely allow goals at home and have been averaging over 3 goals scored per match there. They even finished the Copa Sudamericana group stage at the top of their group at 5-0-1 which was the best record of any teams in the group stage of the competition, and they scored 14 goals in their 6 matches while allowing just 3 goals, even playing in a group with RB Bragantino from Brasil. Racing Club has the defense to make a deep run here as they are not going to concede many goals in the competition, but they also have an attack that can win them matches if need be. They are a very dangerous team in Argentina right now and that will carry over into this competition as they will be very focused on winning this. They have one of the best squads in the whole tournament and will be a big threat. There is a lot of value in Racing Club to win this competition at this price.  LDU Quito +1600: LDU Quito is not the next team on the list for winning this competition this season, but this is a team with some real value. LDU Quito actually started the group stage in Copa Libertadores and ended up finishing in 3rd place so they dropped down to this competition and had to play in the play-off to get here. They beat Always Ready 4-3 on aggregate to get to this Round of 16, but LDU Quito is actually the defending champion of this competition. They won Copa Sudamericana last season and earned a Copa Libertadores spot from that, but now they find themselves back in this competition and will be pushing to repeat as champions. They have a very good defense that took them far in this competition last season and they know what needs to be done to win this tournament so they will use that experience here. Not only are they the defending champions, but they are also a club from Ecuador and the Copa Sudamericana champion has actually come from Ecuador in the last 2 as well as 3 of the last 5 seasons. LDU Quito is not the best team in this competition this year, but their experience will take them a long way and they are definitely going to be a tough out for any team they go up against. There is some good value in LDU Quito at this price to repeat as champions this season. Independiente Medellín +3300: Independiente Medellín is not the next team on the list for winning this competition this season, but this is a team with some real value.They finished the group stage at the top of their group at 4-1-1, scoring 16 goals in those 6 matches while allowing 7 goals. They have a very potent attack that can carry them far into this tournament as they are a team that never lays down when behind. They have struggled in their own domestic league recently, but they have also turned their focus more to this competition as this is the trophy they want to win. They do not have the best squad in this tournament and their defense will struggle to keep clean sheets in this competition, but they have some potential as a long shot here since they have a very potent attack that will keep them in their matches. They also have a big advantage at home since they play at a very high altitude so that home advantage will carry them deep into this tournament as opponents will struggle when they travel there. They also have a weaker opponent in the Round of 16 which will give them a better chance to advance to the quarters. Independiente Medellín has a lot of value at this price to be a long shot winner of this competition considering how they have the altitude advantage at home and there is not a real dominant team in this competition.  RecommendationCopa Sudamericana usually has much weaker teams than Copa Libertadores which really makes the field more open to big underdogs going on a run and winning the whole thing. There are 5 clubs from Brasil in the top 6 teams listed in the odds for this tournament, but only 1 club from Brasil has won this competition in the last 5 seasons and the clubs from Brasil that usually play in this are not the strongest ones from the Brasileirao. Racing Club at +1200 has the most value of all the teams as they do have one of the better teams in the competition and are very undervalued here. LDU Quito at +1600 has a lot of value as a dark horse since they are the defending champions of the competition, and Independiente Medellin at +3300 has some value as a long shot here.

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Copa America Group Betting (2024)

Saturday, Jun 01, 2024

The summer is quickly approaching and with that comes the 2024 edition of the Copa America. The Copa America will have a new look this year as it will be hosted in North America, primarily in the United States, with 6 North/Central American countries joining the 10 South American countries. The 1st match of the tournament will be kicking off on Thursday, June 20, between Argentina and Canada. Argentina are the defending champions from the last Copa America as well as being the reigning World Cup champions from 2022 Qatar. There are many different ways to bet on the Copa America, specifically with group betting, so now it is time to see where the value is when betting on the group stage.  Group Winner Ecuador +160: Ecuador is coming into this tournament at +160 to win Group B. They are in a group with Mexico, Jamaica, and Venezuela. Mexico is the favorite to win the group at +110, but they have been declining over the last few years as a lot of their talent has been aging. They did not make it out of the group stage at the last World Cup and they have even struggled recently in their own continent. USA has recently dethroned them as the superpower in North America and a lot of that has to do with the aging squad and the lack of attacking talent. Venezuela and Jamaica are the two weakest teams in the group and Jamaica is a team that Mexico sees often in CONCACAF competitions so they will not cause too much trouble for them, but the same goes for Ecuador with those two teams. Ecuador and Mexico do not play each other until the final round of the group stage and it is very likely that both could be going into that match tied for 1st in the group, so that match is going to likely decide who wins the group. The difference here is that Mexico has an aging squad that has been on the decline over the last few years while Ecuador has a lot of young talent that is starting to grow into their roles on the pitch. Ecuador also has a lot of good depth in their squad as their domestic league has been producing a lot more talent in recent years, and the teams from Ecuador have been performing much better in continental play as well. Ecuador has been building a very good team for years and they performed well at the last World Cup despite not getting out of the group, but this is a competition that they can really break out in, especially with this particular group, so they have a very good chance of winning this group as they are good enough to beat Mexico, but they can also definitely come away with a draw in that match to win the group on goal differential if it comes down to it. Ecuador at +160 to win Group B. Uruguay -134: Uruguay is coming into this tournament at -134 to win Group C. They are in a group with USA, Panama, and Bolivia. This is a group that Uruguay is the strongest team in and they are going to qualify with the other 2 teams in this group being Panama and Bolivia. Bolivia is one of the worst teams in all of South America right now and they have been one of the worst teams in the continent for years, their only real advantage being the extremely high altitude they play at which will not be a factor here. Panama is a team that has been getting better in recent CONCACAF competitions, but they always fall short against a stronger opponent so neither of these bottom 2 teams are going to pose much of a threat to Uruguay or USA. Uruguay and USA do not meet until round 3 of the group stage so there is a very good chance that this is the match that will decide who wins the group, and Uruguay does have the edge here despite USA being the host nation. USA has been the dominant team in North America over the last few years, but the quality of the teams in South America are nowhere near the teams in North America. USA did make it out of the group stage at the last World Cup while Uruguay did not make it out of theirs, but USA has also had some troubles recently as they lost in the CONCACAF Gold Cup last year before winning the Nations League a few months ago, and consistency has been a real issue for them recently. Having the home crowd on their side will help out a lot, but Uruguay has been developing a lot of younger talent themselves as they phase the older players out of the squad, and they have improved a lot since the World Cup as they are in 2nd place in South America for the World Cup qualifiers right now after 6 matches. Uruguay has the quality to beat USA on the final matchday and there is also a good chance they will have the better goal differential going into that match so they would only need a draw to win the group. USA also has to deal with Panama in the group who is not a strong team, but that is the team that beat kicked them out of the Gold Cup last year in penalties after a draw so any points dropped in that match could see USA’s chances of winning the group diminish. Uruguay at -134 to win Group C. Bottom of the Group Venezuela +220: Venezuela is coming into this tournament at +220 to finish at the bottom of Group B. Venezuela is in a group with Mexico, Ecuador, and Jamaica. Mexico and Ecuador are the much stronger teams in this group so it is likely that those will be the 2 teams qualifying from this group. That leaves Venezuela in the battle for 3rd place with Jamaica, and Jamaica has the edge here. Venezuela has been one of the worst teams in South America for years as they have finished at the bottom of the table for World Cup qualifying many times over the last decade. They have been in better form recently as they have played 6 World Cup qualifying matches over the last year and are currently in a qualifying spot at the moment, but this is still a team that severely lacks talent in their squad. They have no real star talent on their team to lean on and they do not have a lot of depth either. It does not help that Venezuela also has one of the worst domestic leagues in all of South America right now. Venezuela recently drew with Ecuador in the World Cup qualifiers over the last year, but that was also a match that was at home and they are not going to have that same luxury here. Ecuador has a lot more talent and can easily beat Venezuela at a neutral location. It is likely that Venezuela and Jamaica will both lose each of their matches against Ecuador and Mexico, so this could come down to the final round when Jamaica and Venezuela play each other and right now, the edge goes to Jamaica here as they have not been bad in their CONCACAF competitions over the last 2 years as well as having some Premier League talent on their side as well. Jamaica is better than Venezuela with the talent they have and they are going to finish higher in this group. Venezuela at +220 to finish at the bottom of Group B. Bolivia -120: Bolivia is coming into this tournament at -120 to finish at the bottom of Group C. They are in a group with Uruguay, USA, and Panama. Bolivia is one of the worst teams in all of South America and they have been one of the worst teams in South America going back over the last 2 decades, finishing near the bottom of the group in almost every World Cup qualifier over the last 20 years. They have a very strong home advantage as they play at a very high altitude, but even with that advantage, it has not helped them much over the years and now that the advantage is gone in a tournament like this, they really have nothing going for them here. They do not have much experience playing in these international competitions as they never really qualify for the World Cup, and they also lost all 4 of their matches in the group stage at the last Copa America. Bolivia is in a group that has Uruguay and USA as the 2 strongest teams in that group and they are not winning or even drawing either of those matches as both of those teams are much too strong for them. Uruguay also has a very good record when they play Bolivia while USA is going to have the home advantage in that match so it will be too much for Bolivia in both matches. That leaves them likely fighting for 3rd place in the group with Panama, but Panama is not that bad of a team and they have more talent than Bolivia does. Panama also has more experience in these competitions as they have been playing in a lot of CONCACAF competitions recently, and they have been in great form in these over the last 2 years. They did not make it to the last World Cup in 2022 but they have stepped up their game since then and have been in great form. Last year, they went to the final of the CONCACAF Gold Cup without losing a single match in the competition until they lost to Mexico 1-0 in the final. They also did very well in the CONCACAF Nations League which ended back in March, once again not losing a match in the competition until the semifinal which they lost 3-0 to Mexico and then 1-0 to Jamaica in the 3rd place match, but they still went very deep into the tournament. Panama has been improving a lot over the last 2 years and they have a better team than Bolivia does so they are going to finish in 3rd place in this group as that is a match they can win in the group stage. Bolivia at -120 to finish at the bottom of Group C. Group Qualification Canada +250: Canada is coming into this tournament at +250 to qualify from the group stage. They are in Group A with Argentina, Chile, and Peru, but this is not a very strong group at all. Argentina is by far the best team in the group and will likely finish with all 9 points as none of the teams in the group have the talent to even challenge them. That is going to make the battle for 2nd place very messy as the 2nd place team could go through with very little points. Canada failed to get out of the group stage at the last World Cup, losing all 3 of their matches in the group, but they gained valuable experience which they will be able to use in this group stage. This is more of a knock on the other 2 teams in the group as Canada has not been in great form over the last 2 years since that World Cup, but neither have Chile or Peru. Both Chile and Peru failed to even make the last World Cup, and neither side has been good since then either. Chile is currently sitting in the bottom 3 of the table for the South American World Cup qualifiers after 6 matches, missing the next World Cup if the qualifiers ended now, and Peru is currently sitting at the bottom of that same table. Neither side has a good attack either as Peru has only scored 1 goal in their 6 matches over the last year while Chile has scored 3 goals in their 6 matches. Peru is also a team that lacks a lot of talent in their squad while Chile has a lot of talent in theirs, but most of the talent in Chile’s squad is also way past their prime. Canada has more talent on the attacking end which is going to be key in this group as that will be the difference for the 2nd place finisher. Canada is not going to go far in this tournament, but with this specific group, they have the talent to get out of it with 2 of the worst teams in South America right now occupying the bottom of that group. Canada at +250 to qualify.

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Copa America Futures (2024)

Saturday, Jun 01, 2024

The summer is quickly approaching and with that comes the 2024 edition of the Copa America. The Copa America will have a new look this year as it will be hosted in North America, primarily in the United States, with 6 North/Central American countries joining the 10 South American countries. The 1st match of the tournament will be kicking off on Thursday, June 20, between Argentina and Canada. Argentina are the defending champions from the last Copa America as well as being the reigning World Cup champions from 2022 Qatar, so now it is time to see if Argentina can keep up that success or if there will be a new country crowned champions this year. To Win Outright Argentina +175: Argentina is coming into this tournament as the team with the best chance to lift the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Argentina are the defending champions from the last Copa America, and they are also the last World Cup champions as it has been a very impressive 4 years for this team. They have been a dominant team over the last year as well, leading South America with the best record in the World Cup qualifiers after 6 matches. They also have a lot of talent at every position as their team is made up of some of the best players from the best teams all across Europe. There is no shortage of talent on this team and there is no reason to believe that this team is any worse than the one that has dominated on the international stage over the last few years. The team is also going to be very motivated to repeat in this competition as this very well could be the last Copa America that Lionel Messi plays in, as he will be 40 when the next one comes around, and that last Copa America that Argentina won was actually the only Copa America Lionel Messi has won in his career so the team has something to rally around there as well. Argentina is still the best team by far in all of the Americas and in a competition like this with a very small field to navigate, there is a lot of value in Argentina to win at this price as there are not many teams in the field that can match them.  Brazil +225: Brazil is coming into this tournament as the team with the next best chance to lift the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Brazil has a lot of talent in their squad as, just like Argentina, their team consists of some of the best players at the best clubs all across Europe. There is no shortage of talent in this Brazil squad and they have a lot more talent on the attacking end than Argentina does, but defense has been a big problem for this squad over the last few years. Brazil has still had a lot of success as they went to the Final of the last Copa America, being the team that Argentina beat to win it all, and they also made it to the quarterfinal at the last World Cup where they were stopped by Croatia after a 1-1 draw. They have not been in good form since then as they have played in 6 World Cup qualifying matches over the last year and they are sitting in the bottom half of the table right now. They have been able to beat up on the weaker teams in South America, but they actually lost their last 3 meaningful matches played in the qualifiers, losing to Argentina, Colombia, and Uruguay who are all top 3 teams in that table. Brazil has the talent to make a deep run in this tournament but the players themselves have not been playing well together on the pitch as they have had a lot of scoring troubles going back to that World Cup. They do not have a strong defense either as their defenders are washed up so they need their attack to bail them out of certain situations and without an attack that is consistently producing goals, this team really has nothing going for them until they fix those problems. Brazil has the potential to make a deep run here and end up in the final but considering the problems they have right now with both their attack and their defense, there is not a lot of value in them to win at this price.  Uruguay +500: Uruguay is coming into this tournament as the team with the next best chance to lift the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Uruguay has not had a lot of success in recent tournaments as they have struggled in the Copa America and in the World Cup over the last few years. They failed to get out of the group stage at the last World Cup in Qatar, going 1-1-1 in the group stage, but they have been in much better form since that competition. They have played in 6 World Cup qualifiers since then and they are currently sitting in 2nd place in all of South America after 6 matches. They also have some quality wins recently as they beat Argentina and Brazil who are 2 of the best teams in South America right now. Their attack has also been on fire recently as they are leading the South American teams for goals scored in the World Cup qualifiers. Uruguay also has a very good defense with some very talented defenders and a very talented midfield to go with it as well. The toughest team that Uruguay will have to face in the group stage will be USA, but they are going to make it out of the group regardless of if they win the group or not. They do have a tough road as they would have to face some teams from Group D which has both Colombia and Brazil in it, but these are also teams that Uruguay has played over the last year without losing to either as well. Uruguay has the talent to make a deep run in this competition and there is some value in them as a dark horse at this price since they have been improving since their disappointment at the World Cup. Mexico +1100: Mexico is coming into this tournament as the team with the next best chance to lift the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Mexico has been a very inconsistent team over the last year. They used to be the dominant force in North America hands down, but in recent years that crown has been passed to the USA as Mexico has struggled on a number of occasions to get the job done against them. They failed to get out of the group stage at the last World Cup in 2022, then they followed it up by winning the CONCACAF Gold Cup in 2023, but they also did not have to face USA once during that tournament. The last meaningful match they played in was actually just a few months ago, back in March, as they were in the CONCACAF Nations League Final and they lost in that final to USA 2-0. Luckily for Mexico, they are in the most watered down group in the tournament which will help them get out of the group stage, and they do not have USA on their side of the bracket either which is going to help them out a lot since they cannot figure that team out, but they still have Argentina to deal with on their side of the bracket who is arguably the best team in the world right now, and even if they do get past them and make it to the final, there are a number of other strong teams from South America as well as USA lurking on the other side of the bracket. Mexico is not even the strongest team in North America right now and they do not have the team to beat some of the other stronger teams in South America either. There is no real value in Mexico at this price as they do not have much of a chance to win this tournament.  Colombia +1200: Colombia is coming into this tournament as the team with the next best chance to lift the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Colombia has been a very interesting team over the last few years. They failed to even qualify for the 2022 World Cup, but they did finish 3rd at the last Copa America, beating Peru in the bronze medal match after losing to Argentina in the Semifinal. Colombia has been in much better form since failing to make the World Cup though. They have been one of the better teams in South America over the last year as they are in the top 3 in the group for the World Cup qualifiers. They do not have a great attack as they have been struggling to score goals, but their defense has been very good as they rarely concede. They have also beaten some of the better teams in South America over the last year like Brazil, so that is going to give them confidence coming into this tournament. Colombia has the defense to take them far in this tournament, but they do not have a favorable road to the final. They are in a group with Brazil so winning that group is still going to be tough and even if they qualify from it, they could have to see Brazil again after their first knockout match which will not be easy either as they are going to have to play a team from the group with Uruguay and USA who will both be tough outs. Even if they get to the final, they still have quality teams like Argentina lurking on the other side of the bracket and that is not a team they have had a lot of success against. Colombia does have some value here as they have a defense that can take them far, but their recent troubles on the attack could be their downfall here against a stronger and more balanced team. Colombia is not the best option to win the Copa America this year. USA +1200: USA is coming into this tournament as the team with the next best chance to lift the trophy according to the oddsmakers. USA made it out of the group stage at the last World Cup in Qatar, losing to the Netherlands in the Round of 16, and then they followed that up by losing to Panama last year in the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup. They regained their glory earlier this year as they beat Mexico in the CONCACAF Nations League Final back in March. USA has been the best team in North America over the last few years as Mexico used to be the big power, but recently Mexico has struggled against the USA which has opened up the continent to a new dominant team. USA already has a bit of an advantage here being the best team in North America right now, but they also have an even bigger advantage as the host nation. USA has been a very good team on home soil over the last few years and it is a big reason why they have become so dominant against other North American teams. They do not have an easy group as they are in a group with Uruguay, but they will likely get out of the group whether they win it or not as the other 2 teams in the group will not pose much of a threat. The road to the final will not be kind though as they will have to face a team from Group D if they make it out of the group stage, and that group has some tougher competition in it with both Brazil and Colombia in that group. They are going to have a very difficult road in the knockout rounds and even if they do get to the finals, the defending champions of the competition are still lurking on the other side of the bracket. USA may be the best team in North America and the home advantage is going to help them out a lot in this tournament, but they will eventually run into a team that is too strong for them as they still do not have the talent that some of these stronger South American countries produce. There is some value in this price with the home advantage on their side, but they do not have a great chance at lifting the trophy this year. RecommendationThere are a lot of talented teams in the Copa America this year and the 6 North American teams joining the competition are going to make it a lot more interesting as this field is not nearly as weak as it has been in previous years. That being said, there is still a clear favorite here as the defending champions of the competition are also the current World Champions as well. Argentina at +175 is still a good bet to make here considering how they are the best team in the world right now and also have a very easy group as well as an easy path to the final. There is not really a team that will be able to stop Argentina on that side of the bracket, but there are a lot of talented teams on the other side of the bracket and of those teams, Uruguay at +500 has the most value considering their recent performances since their disappointment at the last World Cup and the fact that they have a very strong midfield with a lot of talent that will carry them far. Argentina at +175 and Uruguay at +500 are the teams with the most value to win this tournament, and there is a chance that both end up in the final with the way the bracket is set up. 

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UEFA Euro Cup Group Betting (2024)

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

Most of the domestic leagues in Europe have come to an end for the season and that means that the 2024 European Championship is right around the corner now. The first match of the competition is set to kick off on Friday, June 14, between Scotland and the host nation Germany. Italy are the defending champions from the 2020 Euro Cup that was played back in 2021. Italy was +1000 to win the tournament back in the 2020 Euro Cup so there is always plenty of value to be found in these competitions, and not just with picking a winner outright. There are many different ways to bet on the competition, one of them being with the various group betting markets, so here is a list of the best bets to make for the group stage of the 2024 Euro Cup. Group Winner Scotland +800: Scotland is coming into this competition at +800 to win their group since they are in the same group as the host nation, but there is no reason why they should be priced as the worst team in the group when they are in a group where they are not the worst team by far. Scotland has done a lot to improve over the last year as they have a lot of young talent that has been breaking out for their various teams in the Premier League. Scotland also dominated their group during the qualification stage as they finished 2nd place to Spain but did have a win over the group winners. Scotland is in a group with Germany, Switzerland, and Hungary. Hungary is really the worst team in this group and should be priced accordingly, but even so, they have given Germany a lot of trouble in their recent meetings over the last few years and that is something that is going to help Scotland win this group as Hungary will steal some points with some draws from the others. Switzerland is priced as the 2nd best team in this group but they were not that good in their group of the qualifying phase as they struggled to beat some of the weaker teams in their group and ended up with a lot of draws which made winning the 2nd spot very close in the end. Finally, Germany is priced as the heavy favorite in this group due to being the host nation, but that is completely absurd for a team that has not played in a meaningful competition since failing to make it out of the group stage at the last World Cup in 2022, and for a team that has also failed to make it out of the group stage in 2 of their last 3 competitions on the world stage. Germany is also transitioning to a new manager as they sacked their manager after the last World Cup, but they have not had a real match to play in under their new manager and Scotland gets them on opening night which could spell trouble for the host nation. Scotland has the quality to win this group and are in the best situation to do so. There is a lot of value in Scotland at +800 to win Group A. Spain -125: Spain is coming into this competition at -125 to win their group and they are the best team in their group despite having some stronger competition. Spain has improved a lot over the last few years as they made it past the group stage at the last Euro Cup and the last World Cup as well, but they finally showed some results last year in the UEFA Nations League Final as they were the ones to win it. This team has been growing over the last year and they are only going to be hungry to go deep into this tournament. They are in a group with Italy, Croatia, and Albania. Albania was able to qualify from the group qualifications as they were heating up to end their campaign in that group, but they also played in a much weaker group and did not have a lot of strong opponents to play against. They had it too easy in the group qualifying, but now they are in one of the stronger groups in this tournament and it will be tough for them to steal a point from any of the teams. Croatia could be a threat in this group as they finished 3rd at the last World Cup and have had a lot of success on the world stage over the last few years, making quite a few deep runs in these competitions over the last few years, but this is also a Croatia squad that has been aging and as much experience as they have on their side, these players are still 2 years older than they were at the World Cup and a few of their core players are nearing the ends of their careers as well. Croatia can still be a threat in this tournament, but Spain has the talent to deal with them as they actually beat Croatia in the UEFA Nations League Final last year. Italy are the defending champions of this tournament but a lot has happened since they won the 2020 Euro Cup. Italy missed the last World Cup in 2022 after winning the 2020 Euro Cup and now they are in a transition phase with a new manager who has completely changed the style of play that this team has been used to for years. Italy could be a threat since they did win less than 4 years ago and have a much better manager now that has injected some youth into the squad, but there is still too much instability with this team which will give Spain an advantage when they play. Spain also beat them in the UEFA Nations League Semi Final last year. Spain has been a much improved team over the last few years and they are good enough to win this whole tournament so there is a lot of value at this price to win their group. Spain will win Group B at -125. Bottom of the Group Poland -138: Poland is coming into this competition priced at the bottom of their group and for good reason. They are -138 to finish at the bottom of the group. They did get out of the group at the last World Cup, but they only went 1-1-1 in the group stage and made it out on goal difference. Poland is already a much weaker team that has been on the decline over the last few years despite still finding ways to qualify for these tournaments, but that good fortune is coming to an end soon. They are in a group with France, Netherlands, and Austria. France is the favorite to win the group and that is no surprise as they went to the final of the last World Cup and have been a dominant force in these competitions over the last few years, winning the World Cup back in 2018 and going deep in every competition since then. France has one of the best teams in the world and there is no way that Poland rips away any points from them as they did lose 3-1 to France at the last World Cup as well. Netherlands is next in the group and it is tough to see Poland ripping away any points from them either. Netherlands was in the final four of the UEFA Nations League last year as well as making it past the group stage at the last World Cup, losing to Argentina who went on to win it all. They have a very good team that is clinical with their decision making on the pitch and they are not going to have much trouble getting out of this group, other than their match against France who they struggled against in the qualification group. Austria is the 3rd team in this group and the one that Poland would likely be fighting with, but Austria was a dominant team in their qualifying group and have improved a lot over the last year with a lot of talented players in their squad having break out seasons at their domestic league clubs. Austria is going to be a real threat in this group to be one of the teams that qualifies in 3rd place and this is really the team Poland will need a result against to avoid the bottom of the group, but Austria has been improving while Poland has been on the decline so as it stands, Austria has the much better squad in this tournament. Poland is going to finish at the bottom of this group and they will fail to qualify out of the group stage. There is a lot of value in Poland at -138 to finish at the bottom of Group D. Slovakia -125: Slovakia is coming into this competition at -125 to finish at the bottom of their group. Slovakia was a dominant team in their group during the qualifying stage as they won every match in the group except for 2 which they lost, but both of those losses came against Portugal who was the team to finish higher than them. They were very good against every other opponent in the group, but they also had one of the weakest qualifying groups with teams like San Marino, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Iceland, and Bosnia. They did not really play any strong opponents in that group and that is going to be very different here as they are in a group with Belgium, Ukraine, and Romania. Belgium is the big favorite to win this group and they are really the only real powerhouse team in this group so on the surface it does not look so bad for Slovakia, but the other 2 teams in the group are certainly no pushovers despite not being powerhouses. Belgium failed to make it out of the group stage at the last World Cup but they dominated the qualifying group for this tournament and are by far the best team in this group. Belgium will also be playing with something to prove here after failing to get out of the group stage at the last World Cup. Ukraine is listed as the 2nd team in this group and although they do not have a real star on their team, they still have a lot of talented players that have been having great seasons like some of their Premier League players. Ukraine also has a bit of an advantage here since they have not been able to play home matches at home for a while now so they have plenty of experience playing at neutral locations over the last few years. Romania comes in as the 3rd team in this group but they actually had a very impressive campaign in the qualifying group. They won their group in the qualifying phase and beat out Switzerland who was the favorite to win that group. Romania is another team that has been improving over the last year and although they are not a real threat to win this group, Slovakia is certainly a team they can beat as Romania will be right there fighting for a 3rd place qualification. Slovakia is not in a group with a lot of overpowering teams, but they will still be lucky to even get a point in this group. There is a lot of value in Slovakia at -125 to finish at the bottom of Group E. Group Qualification Scotland -138: Scotland was already covered earlier as a possible group winner for Group A and they are coming into this competition at -138 to qualify out of the group stage. For all the same reasons mentioned above, Scotland has a real chance to win this group with the way they have been building their squad over the last year so there is a lot of value in Scotland at -138 to qualify from the group stage as they have the ability to win this group and even if they cannot win the group, they are sure to finish high enough to qualify. Austria -110: Austria is coming into this competition at -110 to qualify from the group stage. This is a reasonable price since they are the 3rd best team in the group from a talent perspective, sitting behind 2 powerhouse teams in France and the Netherlands, but considering the way this qualification works with the 4 best teams that finished in 3rd place advancing, this is a very good price for an Austria team that has a very good squad and will find themselves qualifying in the 3rd place spot. It will be tough for them to rip points away from France with the form France has been in over the last year, but the Netherlands have been vulnerable with their defense so it would not be shocking to see Austria come away with a draw there. Even if they do not, Austria is going to beat Poland as they are the better team that has been improving over the last year while Poland has been on the decline, and that 3 points alone could be enough for Austria to qualify. Austria has a very underrated squad coming into this tournament and they have a team that can do some real damage. There is a lot of value in Austria at -110 to qualify from the group stage. 

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