Top 12 College Football Poll Headed Toward the Playoffs
Wednesday, Oct 09, 2024
Now that it’s starting to matter, the top 12 teams and 4-6 others all are praying and playing to making the Playoffs. There were not one, not two, not three, but four teams in the top 10 that fell on a Saturday that appeared mundane before games kicked off. Undoubtedly, the biggest upset of the week saw the No. 1-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide go on the road and get smacked by Vandy. They weren't the only Top 5 SEC team to suffer an upset, though, as Tennessee went on the road to Fayetteville and fell flat against Arkansas. But perhaps just as shocking was No. 10 Michigan losing on the road at Washington and No. 11 USC falling to Minnesota away from home. That’s just the beginning when we start talking about the chaos of Week 6, though, so now we have a wild and extremely tough task of projecting the AP Top 25 rankings for Week 7 after an upset-filled and chaotic weekend in college football.
Where things go from there is almost anyone’s guess. Here’s our best estimate for how our Top 12 will look as this new poll is released. 1. Texas (5-0)It certainly has to be a nice week to be a Texas Longhorn. The team got a week off to allow Quinn Ewers to likely get healthy and ready to return for the meat of the team’s SEC schedule, they are still perfect on the season despite having to play Arch Manning for two-plus games, and they’re surely moving up to the No. 1 spot. The Longhorns will be the no-doubt No. 1 after splitting first-place votes with Alabama last week. Texas has looked the part of the nation’s best team but can’t afford to take Oklahoma lightly despite the Sooners’ struggles in the transition to the SEC. What really sets Texas apart to this point among the other top-ranked unbeatens in the country is the win over Michigan that they already have under their belt, not to mention a win that was earned handily. The Longhorns also are surely thankful for the bye before they go into a stretch that sees them play Red River against rival Oklahoma, host Georgia the following week, and now have what appears to be a much trickier matchup at Vanderbilt than previously expected the week after that. 2. Ohio St (5-0)It was always going to be a tricky balance for the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 6. On one hand, the Iowa Hawkeyes aren’t necessarily a team that can be taken lightly, even with a one-dimensional offense. On the other hand, the Buckeyes almost surely want to keep their cards close to the vest this week with a monumentally important matchup against the Oregon Ducks this week looming. The Buckeyes passed an early test against Iowa after a slow start pitted with two first-half turnovers and another turnover on downs. But things changed after the Buckeyes began to lean on an incredible receiver corps headed by veteran Emeka Egbuka and freshman standout Jeremiah Smith. Egbuka had three scores in the 35-7 win. No matter what strategy they deployed on Saturday, however, likely would’ve worked. The Ohio State defense remains what should be the calling card for this team (Jeremiah Smith aside) as they completely suffocated Kaleb Johnson and Iowa’s offense, cruising comfortably to a 35-7 week. It’s starting to feel like we haven’t even seen the Buckeyes unleash their biggest punches yet, which is scary considering just how dominant they’ve looked to this point. They’ll be prepared for the west coast trip to play Oregon but as a road favorite.3. Georgia (4-1)I know Georgia lost to Alabama last week and fully agree that head-to-head results should matter. But as we’re looking to project the Top 12, there’s quite literally no way you can weigh a loss to the Crimson Tide quite as heavily as a loss to Vanderbilt. So for that reason, after handling Auburn in Athens once again in the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry, the Dawgs jump back ahead of the Tide in the polls. The loss to Alabama looks a little bit worse, though that’s not a big deal down the line for Georgia’s playoff hopes. The big question in this week’s poll is how voters handle the comparison between the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide. In the end, Alabama won the head-to-head game but lost to Vanderbilt, and only the second part is impossible to ignore. Admittedly, it wasn’t always the prettiest effort for UGA in last week’s matchup but it was more than enough to keep Auburn at bay. I continue to believe that Mike Bobo is holding Carson Beck and the offense back quite a bit by not running with more tempo consistently, which is when the offense has looked its best, but this team still has the look of a national title contender outside of their first half against Alabama that created too big of a hole to climb out of in that matchup. This have a no brainer this week at -33 against Miss St. 4. Penn St (5-0)Based on what we’ve seen from the UCLA Bruins so far this season, you might’ve expected a bit more of a dominant effort from James Franklin’s Penn State. Here’s the thing: While that can be true, it can also be true that the Nittany Lions never had the outcome of their matchup on Saturday in doubt and that was almost definitely by design given what lies ahead. The Nittany Lions haven’t put together complete, 60-minute games in recent wins against Illinois and UCLA, playing both opponents tight for the first half before eventually pulling away in the second. That’s a concern for that game in early November against Ohio State, for example. But Penn State continues to look like one of the surest bets for an at-large playoff bid. With no Nicholas Singleton in this matchup, it was more Drew Allar throwing the rock around with Kaytron Allen serving as the bell cow for the day. It wasn’t explosive but it was an overall dominant 27-11 victory. More importantly, with a huge matchup on the road this week looming against USC — a long road trip, no less —and road 5.5 favorite. Franklin’s group was able to get a bit healthier, put as little as possible on tape and will be better served in a matchup with huge College Football Playoff implications. 5. Oregon (5-0)There is arguably no team in the Top 12 that I have a worse feel for than the Oregon Ducks. It’s not for lack of trying or watching Dan Lanning’s team. But it’s been extremely hard to marry the perception of this group coming into the season with the product that’s ultimately been put on the field. Friday night’s win in Eugene over Michigan State was no exception to that. The Ducks had no problems against Michigan State and stayed on track for an unbeaten-against-unbeaten matchup against Ohio State this coming Saturday. A win there wouldn’t necessarily push Oregon to No. 1 in the poll, but you could easily see the Ducks rising to No. 2 and replacing the Buckeyes as the top-ranked team in the Big Ten. You might even see the Ducks leap ahead of Georgia to land at No. 3, but that three-spot jump after beating the Spartans might be overgenerous.6. Alabama (4-1)Just as we all predicted, the Alabama Crimson Tide followed up their electric win over the Georgia Bulldogs only to fall into the hornet’s nest known as FirstBank Stadium in Nashville and get upset by the Vanderbilt Commodores. You know, the same ‘Dores that had lost 23 straight to the Tide, that had lost their previous 60 meetings against teams ranked inside the Top 5 of the AP Top 25, that had been the doormat of the SEC for years. That the Tide won’t fall out of the top 10 can be attributed entirely to that win against Georgia. There are some other wins that look good, including a road victory against Wisconsin, but the truth is the Tide get by on two things: the win last Saturday and the fact that they’re, you know, Alabama. Okay, so maybe almost no one saw this one coming. Outside of a pick-six that wasn’t entirely Jalen Milroe’s fault, the Alabama offense didn’t play poorly at all in this matchup. However, the defense that showed some worrying signs in the second half against Georgia and had left guys open in other games wherein they weren’t burnt got touched up on Saturday. Letdown game or not, Bama has to be properly penalized in the rankings for such a dramatic loss. They have a bye-week. 7. Tennessee (4-1)Losing 19-14 at Arkansas is remarkable given how Tennessee had looked like a borderline juggernaut in September. It goes to show how rocky things will be in the deepest SEC in conference history. There are issues that have to be addressed coming out of the weekend, but you only need to look back on last month to see how good the Volunteers can be. The more I started to look at Tennessee as they went on the road to face Arkansas in Fayetteville, the more worried I started to become. The Razorbacks were the best offense this vaunted Vols defense had faced to date while Bobby Petrino is the best OC they've faced as well. But what I didn't totally expect was the Hogs defense to cause Nico Iamaleava so many problems with the Tennessee offense, and now we have real questions about what this team will be against the best of the SEC moving forward. Tennessee gets Florida this weekend favored -16.8. Miami-Florida (6-0)Miami is just playing with fire at this point without having yet been burned. Mario Cristobal's Hurricanes looked like they were unquestionably burned with their road trip to Cal in Week 6 and with College GameDay in attendance, trailing by three scores in the fourth quarter late into the night on the East Coast (and the West Coast, for that matter). But when push came to shove, Cam Ward pulled out heroics and pulled out the win. Miami's ridiculous comeback at California keeps the Hurricanes among the few unbeaten Power Four teams still standing and as the top-ranked team from the ACC. On a Saturday when just about every major contender was being pushed to the limit as the favorite, Miami should get some credit for surviving this test on the road. With this game coming after the Hail Mary scare against Virginia Tech, it's clear Miami needs their by next week direly. This team looks a bit sloppy, a bit tired, and a bit like they need to take a beat and regroup before coming back in Week 8 for another road game, this one against Louisville. The U remains the favorite to win the ACC but, if these close calls are more than just an aberration, then the Canes' stronghold on the conference could be far weaker than we previously thought.9. Iowa St (5-0)Despite Saturday’s visit from Baylor being close for the better part of three quarters, the win for Iowa State only made my faith in the unbeaten Cyclones grow even more. With the meat of the schedule and three straight games against bowl-trajectory teams on deck, this was a clear trap and look-ahead game. This Saturdaythey are on the road in West Virginia and carry a 3 point road favorite with them. So to tighten up and pull away speaks to the character of Matt Campbell’s group and keeps them as a real dark horse to take the Big 12. 10. Mississippi (5-1)One week after getting shocked by Kentucky, it seemed as if Ole Miss was in danger of an eerily similar result given how Lane Kiffin’s team matched up with South Carolina on the road. Credit to the Rebels, however, because they were far more dialed in with their margin for error this season erased. Jaxson Dart and the offense were good but this was very much about the defense clamping down for their most impressive effort to date to pick up a critical bounce-back win. After getting knocked from the ranks of unbeaten teams last Saturday with a 20-17 loss to Kentucky, the Rebels hopped back into the top 10 after an easy win at South Carolina. While there’s something about this team that’s hard to predict, it’s clear the Rebels can play with and beat almost anyone when on their game. It gets quite interesting from here for the Rebs, though. Next week holds a trip to face LSU before they then welcome Oklahoma after their bye, go on the road to Arkansas, and then welcome Georgia to Oxford. They have a soft finishing stretch against Florida and Mississippi State to end the year but what they look like when they get to that spot is still up for debate. For now, with some help from some chaos, they reenter the Top 10. 11. Notre Dame (4-1)Even though it was less than a month ago, the loss to Northern Illinois feels almost a lifetime away for Notre Dame. Their win to open the year against Texas A&M has gotten stronger and they handled Louisville before going into their bye. Having said that, their end-of-October date with Navy throws a bit of a wrench in what was supposed to be an easy run up to their date with USC to end the regular season. But the CFP remains very much in the cards for the Irish. They meet Stanford this Saturday and are a huge favorite at -23. 12. LSU (4-1)Am I absolutely, positively, 100%, without a shadow of a doubt sure that the LSU Tigers are a good football team in the year 2024? Not really! A narrow win at South Carolina remains the team’s crowning achievement this season and their loss to USC in Las Vegas to begin the year now looks even worse with the Trojans suffering a second defeat. LSU was No. 12 in last week’s poll and seem likely to get a slight bump into the top 10 heading into a crucial game against Ole Miss. The Tigers have been a little hit or miss even when not including a loss to Southern California in the season opener, but they've won four in a row and are one of just three teams still unbeaten in SEC play. However, they play Ole Miss at home getting +3 points. We’ll learn more than enough about Brian Kelly’s group over the next four games, though, as they face a true make-or-break stretch. Out of this week’s bye, they welcome Ole Miss, visit Arkansas, then visit Texas A&M before finishing that run against Alabama in Baton Rouge. If they survive that gauntlet even just mildly scathed, the Tigers could be well in the thick of the Playoff race.
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