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Hot Streaks and Achievements

16-7 (70%), 74-48 (61%), 92-60 (61%), 171-120 (59%), 300-211 (59%), 949-701 (58%) all sports 4/1
54-31 (64%) NCAA-B run , 18-11 (62%) NCAA-B GOY and 41-23 (64%) NCAA-B GOM/GOY runs, 4/1
6-1 (86%) and 133-94 (59%) NBA runs, 52-22 (71%) NHL run, 4/1

Biography

Founded by Bally Casino’s former sportsbook director, Team Del Genio provides winners from an oddsmaker’s perspective.

Active Since: 1999

Location: Las Vegas, NV

Team Del Genio continues the sports handicapping legacy of former oddsmaker, Lenny Del Genio. After heading the sportsbook operations at the Frontier and then Bally’s, Lenny moved to the other side of the window when he started his sports handicapping service where he later mentored the next generation of handicappers. By maintaining the perspective of the oddsmakers, Team Del Genio represents a consensus service of a small group of handicappers that Lenny personally trained.

Lenny Del Genio was one of Las Vegas’ most influential and iconic Race and Sports Book Directors from the mid-1980s through the mid-1990s. Lenny headed the sportsbook operations at the Frontier and Bally’s during that time. During those years, Lenny also made frequent on-camera appearances for ABC, CBS, Fox, NBC, and most cable television networks where he commented on major sporting events and gaming trends. Lenny became internationally known as the unofficial oddsmaker of the Academy Awards and the Emmy Awards with the Del Genio line carried by both the Associated Press and Reuters. Lenny was featured on many national and international news and entertainment programs, including Entertainment Tonight, Good Morning America, The Today Show, and NBC Late Night. Lenny later held the position of Vice President/General Manager at Bally’s in charge of casino development while serving as a consultant to Indian gaming. He then moved on to become the General Manager of Racing Services de Mexico, with special responsibilities in international expansion. Finally, Lenny moved to the other side of the window in the late 1990s when he started his sports service. Lenny was an integral part of the gaming industry for more than three decades before passing away in September 2012.

Team Del Genio was founded by Lenny to provide the best sports wagering information to gambling clients with a keen eye kept on the perspective he gained from his decades of work as an oddsmaker. Lenny trained and mentored a small group of individuals who served as his right-hand men over the years. It is this group of handicappers that now maintain Lenny’s legacy with their consensus Team Del Genio picks. Besides their prestigious Game of the Month/Year plays, the Team offers packages such as their Vegas J*A*C*K*P*O*T, Oddsmaker Error, and their rare 30* Vegas Icon Signature Play which celebrates the decades-long legacy of Lenny Del Genio. Team Del Genio's reports are available exclusively at Big Al’s Sports Picks.

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Chris Beard's Ole Miss: Dangerous Dog (if and when they are not favored)

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

Ole Miss was a dangerous underdog in one of the three showdowns between the SEC and the Big Ten in the Sweet Sixteen. Florida made a strong case that the SEC is the superior conference with their 16-point victory against Maryland in a Sweet Sixteen game played the night before. The Rebels may have had eleven losses on the year, yet they had an impressive list of victories against Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas in conference play. They beat BYU, Louisville, and Colorado State in non-conference play before a statement victory against Iowa State as a five-point underdog in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Mississippi shot 58.2% from the field against the Cyclones, and they had covered the point spread in five of their last seven games after playing a game where they scored 85 or more points. They had covered the point spread in five of their last six games after pulling off an upset win in their previous game. What makes head coach Chris Beard’s team tough to play is their ability to win the turnover battle. When they had the basketball, they only turned the ball over in 12.9% of their possessions, ranking third best in the country. They forced turnovers in 20.3% of their opponents’ possessions, ranking 33rd in the country. The Rebels had covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games on the road against non-conference opponents. They had covered the point spread in nine of their last fourteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had covered the point spread in all five of their games on a neutral court when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog or as a pick ‘em.Michigan State faced a difficult challenge against the style of defense that Ole Miss plays. Beard’s defensive philosophy is to take away the middle of the court. His defenders try to force the opposing players to the baseline and the sidelines to use the out-of-bounds as an extra defender. One of the most effective ways to confront this type of defensive scheme is to get the ball-handler in isolation and then space the floor to either unclog the middle or find open areas. The Spartans' offense was predicated on ball movement. They had an assist rate of 61.1% of their made field goals, the 17th-highest mark in the country. Yet ball movement does not necessarily penetrate a clogged middle. Head coach Tom Izzo rarely relies on isolation plays. His team ranked 342nd in the frequency of isolation plays coming off of passes, and they ranked 337th in offensive efficiency from those isolation plays. Michigan State won for the tenth time in their last eleven games with a 71-63 victory against New Mexico in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Yet of concern in that game was that their freshman phenom, Jase Richardson, only scored 6 points and missed all five of his 3-point shot attempts. Richardson jump-started the Spartans' scoring attack when he entered the starting lineup in early February. He was making 40.4% of his 3-pointers. He had played twelve straight games where he scored 10 or more points. He might have just had an off night, or the freshman may have struggled with the pressure of the NCAA tournament. If he is not hitting his 3s, Michigan State could be in grave trouble since they only make 31.0% of their shots from the 3-point line, ranking 323rd in the country. They only take 32.7% of their shots from 3-point land. That mark ranked 329th in the country and far below the national average of teams taking 39.0% of their shots from the 3-point line. Ole Miss was limiting their opponents to 32.5% shooting from 3-point range, ranking 98th in the country. The Spartans were one of the best rebounding teams in the country. They rebound 35.8% of their missed shots, ranking 19th in the country. Yet Michigan State usually loses the turnover battle. They only forced turnovers 16.2% of the time, ranking 245th in the country. In Big Ten play, they turned the ball over 16.7% of the time, ranking 13th in the conference. Given their lack of 3-point shooting, rebounding may not be enough to cover the point spread against this tested Rebels team that wins the turnover battle. The Spartans survived this Sweet Sixteen showdown, yet they only won by a 73-70 score. Ole Miss covered the point spread with most oddsmakers closing that game with the Rebels at +3.5. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

Auburn is a Chameleon When It Comes to Tempo

Monday, Mar 31, 2025

The Auburn Tigers are a chameleon when it comes to tempo. Head coach Bruce Pearl wants his team to be comfortable playing in track meets and in slow slogs. In their Sweet Sixteen game, Michigan head coach Dusty May wanted the Wolverines to play quickly in their showdown with the Tigers, and Pearl was happy to oblige. Auburn rallied from a 48-39 deficit in the second half to win by a 78-65 score in a game that finished far below the 155.5 over/under number installed by the oddsmakers. Yet the low score had everything to do with poor shooting than a slow pace, as the 75 possessions in that game were the second most in regulation time the Tigers experienced all season. The lone exception was the 78 possessions in Auburn’s game against Alabama in February, and the Crimson Tide played at the fastest pace in the country. The Tigers only shot 39.4% from the field in the win, yet they tightened things up on defense by holding the Wolverines to 35.6% shooting. After that game, Auburn’s opponents were scoring 69.3 points per game on 40.8% shooting, and their last five opponents after that game were averaging only 65.0 points per game on 39.8% shooting. They ranked eighth in the country in defensive efficiency. Yet the Tigers have played low-scoring games at slower paces as well this season. Division I college basketball games average 67.4 possessions per game. Tennessee was one of the slowest-paced teams in the country, whose games average 63.6 possessions per game. In their first game against the Volunteers, they won in a very low-scoring game, 53-51, with 63 possessions for both teams. In the rematch in the SEC tournament, the shooting was better for both sides yet only 135 combined points were scored in Tennessee’s 70-65 victory, where there was one less possession for each team at 62. Auburn was willing to play at South Carolina’s preferred slow pace in conference play as well. The Gamecocks play at the 287th slowest pace in the country, and the Tigers beat them, 66-63, with 60 possessions. In their second game of the season against Houston, whose average of 61.6 possessions per game is also the lowest in the country, Auburn won, 74-68, in a game with 62 possessions played.What would the pace of play be for the Tigers’ Elite Eight showdown with Michigan State? The Spartans were playing at the national average when it comes to pace at 67.4 possessions per game. Yet in the Spartans' 11-2 run to the under in their last thirteen games, they had seen their possession average drop to 66.8 per game, ranking 207th in the country. In their ten games away from the Breslin Center against opponents who rank in the top fifty in the country in net efficiency, the possessions per game mark lower to 65.7, ranking 272nd in the country. An old-school coach like Tom Izzo’s instinct is to slow the game down when playing an opponent who may have better talent. In their previous two games in this tournament against New Mexico and Mississippi, there were 65 and 64 possessions. He wants a slow tempo, and Pearl usually obliges. The Spartans had played six of their last seven games under the number when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had played five straight unders against teams winning 80% or more of their games. They had played fourteen of their last seventeen games under the total when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. Four of those five unders in that point total range were played on a neutral court. Auburn had played fifteen of their last twenty-two games under the number when playing for the second time in three days. They had played five of their last eight games in the NCAA tournament under the total with Pearl as their head coach. Michigan State was one of the best defensive teams in the country and ranks fifth in defensive efficiency. They held Ole Miss to 40.6% shooting in their win in the Sweet Sixteen. The Tigers held their opponents to 40.8% shooting before the Elite Eight, and the Spartans had played twelve of their last fifteen games under the total against opponents with a defensive field goal percentage of 42% or lower.Both of these squads are great rebounding teams, and the battle of the boards should contribute to slowing their Elite Eight game down. Auburn averaged 35 rebounds and limited their opponents to 29 rebounds, and Michigan State had played ten of their last eleven games under the number against opponents with a +4.0 or higher net rebounding margin. The Tigers won the game, 70-64, to advance to the Final Four. Auburn only shot 43% from the field in the victory, yet they held the Spartans made 34% of their shots. Yet, Izzo got the pace of play he preferred, as there were 67 mutual possessions in the game. Sure enough, the 134 combined points scored were below the total of 147.5 installed by the oddsmakers. Good luck - TDG.

Portland State is a Dark Horse Candidate to Win the Big Sky Tournament

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

Portland State is a dark horse candidate to win the Big Sky conference tournament. They begin March in a tie for third place with Idaho State in the conference with a 9-7 record.The Vikings had been on a two-game losing streak after losing at Weber State, 60-58, as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday, February 22nd. They hosted Montana State on Thursday night, who beat them, 74-73, on the road on February 1st at the beginning of the month. Portland State has covered the point spread in six of their seven games this season when playing with revenge from a loss to their opponent earlier in the season. They come back home where they have a 10-1 record with a net point differential of more than 22 points. They are averaging 82.2 points per game at home on 51% shooting from the field. They hold their opponents to 60.1 points per game at home on 37% shooting. The Vikings had covered the point spread in twelve of their last eight games at home going into that game, and they had covered the point spread in six of their last eight games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite or as a pick ‘em. They had covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games at home when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. Portland State had covered the point spread in five of their last seven games against opponents winning 40% to 49% of their games.It shaped up to be a good matchup for the Vikings. Montana State had won two games in a row before an 89-85 loss at home to Montana as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Bobcats had a 12-16 record this season going into the game, and their loss to their in-state rival Grizzlies lowered their conference record to 7-8. They had covered the point spread once in their last five games on the road after playing a game where they scored 85 or more points. Montana State has a 10-3 record at home, yet they were only 2-13 on the road with a net point differential of more than -7 points per game going into that game. They were averaging only 68.3 points per game on the road from 42% shooting. They had covered the point spread twice in their last ten games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog or as a pick ‘em, and they had covered the point spread in six of their last nineteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 140 to 149.5. The Vikings shoot 48.1% from the field, yet the Bobcats had covered the point spread in seven of their last nineteen games on the road against opponents who are making 45% or more of their shots from the field. Montana State had not covered the point spread in four straight games against opponents winning 51% to 60% of their games. They had covered the point spread just once in their last six games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog of up to three points or as a favorite of up to three points. Sure enough, Portland State cruised to a 79-62 victory against Montana State (in what was our NCAA-B Game of the Month). The Vikings made 45.9% of their shots in the game and held the Bobcats to 42% shooting. It was an easy victory for Portland State because they pulled down 15 offensive rebounds and forced eight turnovers. Their ability to produce additional scoring possessions is why they should be considered a threat to win the Big Sky conference tournament. The Vikings lead the conference by forcing turnovers in 19.4% of their opponent’s possessions. They rank second in the Big Sky by rebounding 33.5% of their missed shots. With a 17-12 record overall this season going into March, they will need to win the conference tournament to make the NCAA tournament. Yet their ability to force turnovers and create second shots on the offensive glass should not discounted in a one-and-done conference tournament. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

The Re-Emergence of Team USA in International Hockey

Friday, Feb 28, 2025

The United States national team recorded their biggest victory in decades in their 3-1 win against Canada in their second game in the 4 Nations Face-Off. Beating Team Canada is a big challenge for any national team. Canada had not lost in a best-on-best competition in international play since February 21st, 2010 before that setback. They had won twenty-six games in a row in international play when Sidney Crosby was on the roster. Yet Team USA constructed one of its best-ever rosters under Minnesota general manager Bill Guerin who has the same responsibilities for this team. Any doubt about the ability of the Americans to compete should have been dispelled in their 6-1 victory against Finland in their opening game in the 4 Nations Face-Off tournament. The American roster can match the Canadians' top-end scoring talent with Auston Matthews, Jack Eichel, and Jack Hughes leading the way. The Americans bottomed out in their last international event eight years ago in the World Cup of Hockey when they lost all three of their group-stage games. That roster consisted of many gritty two-way players who thrived during the Stanley Cup playoffs yet were not as good of fits in international play that features speed and skill with a different set of rules. That USA team did not have up-and-coming talent either like Matthews, Eichel, Johnny Gaudreau, and Dylan Larkin who played for 21-and-under North American squad. Guerin compiled a roster that emphasizes speed and skill now. The heart and soul of this team are the Tkachuk brothers, Brady and Matthew, who are playing together on a line centered by Eichel. Their energy and physicality were the controlling factors in the first game against the Canadiens (and it started when they both initiated the first two of the three fights in those electrifying opening nine seconds). Yet the big edge for Team USA remains in net with goaltender Connor Hellebuyck who may be the best goaltender in the world right now. He has a 2.07 goals-against average and a .925 save percentage for Winnipeg in the NHL this season. He stopped 25 of 26 shots against Canada including 10 of the 11 high danger chances the Canadians mustered. Hellebuyck stopped 45 of the 47 shots he has faced in this tournament for a .957 save percentage and a 1.00 goals-against average before the championship game. In his two games before the rematch against Canada, he had saved 16 of the 17 high-danger shots for a .941 save percentage. He also stopped all eight of the shots he has faced from midrange. The Americans’ 2-1 loss against Sweden in their final game before the finals should not have been considered a red flag since head coach Mike Sullivan was able to rest key players. Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk did not play dealing with minor injuries. Brady Tkachuk did not play after the first period after suffering a minor injury. Jake Oettinger was in the net with Connor Hellebuyck getting the night. The intensity of the game was not the same since the Americans' victory on Saturday clinched their spot in the championship game. Despite the loss, the USA registered 4.07 expected goals and held the Swedes to 2.42 expected goals. Even a 3-2 loss in overtime in the championship game to Canada should not detract from the threat Team USA should present in international play for the rest of the decade. The USA outshot Canada, 33-27. Matthew Tkachuk only played 6:47 minutes in the game before not being able to return due to the injury he suffered early in the tournament. Defenseman Charlie McAvoy was also out for the entire game with a shoulder injury. Vancouver defenseman Quinn Hughes did not play in the entire tournament because of an injury as well. Certainly, the Canadian roster will be stacked for the 2026 Olympics. They will probably have a goaltender who is more reliable than St. Louis’ Jordan Binnington. Yet the Americans have too many players in the prime of their careers to not be a serious threat to lift trophies in international events for the next several years. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

Finding Context in Losing Streaks

Friday, Jan 31, 2025

In handicapping the NHL in the regular season, it is important to appreciate the context that may have played a role in explaining a team’s recent losing streak. This was the case for us on Wednesday when we backed the New Jersey Devils in their home game against Philadelphia. The Devils had the opportunity to avenge a 4-2 loss at Philadelphia against this Flyers team from two days earlier. They had won nine of their last ten games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their opponent this season. They had won five of their eight games this year following a loss to a division rival. They had won two games in a row before the loss earlier this week as they were showing some signs of life after a difficult stretch on the road. The Devils went on a six-game road trip from December 28th through January 9th where they won only one time in their six games. They were still in third place in the Metropolitan Division with 62 points. They were coming back home where they were averaging 3.1 goals per game and holding their opponents to 2.5 goals per game. They had won seven of their last ten games on their home ice. They had won three of the four games at home this season when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 5.5. Injuries have played a role in their recent slide yet Jack Hughes is healthy again. New Jersey was still without injured Nico Hischier on the blue line and goaltender Jacob Markstrom. Backup goaltender Jake Allen has stepped in for Markstrom’s absence. He was a 2-1-0 record in his three starts since that injury although he will have revenge on his mind after Monday’s result when he gave up two first-period goals and stopped 22 of the 25 shots during that game. New Jersey had beaten nine of the fourteen opponents they have played this season with a winning percentage in the 40% to 49% range, and they had won five of those seven games at home.Philadelphia ended a two-game losing streak before their victory on Monday. The Flyers had won only three times in their last eleven games after a win at home in their previous game. With 52 points, they were tied for fifth place in the Metropolitan Division. They hit the road where they are giving up 3.6 goals per game. They had won eight times in their twenty-one games on the road. They had beaten seven of their last twenty-two opponents with winning records this year, and they have only done that three times in their eleven games on the road. Samuel Ersson was their goaltender tonight after stopping 31 of the 33 shots he faced against the Devils on Monday. Yet on the road, he only had a 2.84 goals-against average and a .888 save percentage. Philadelphia was undermanned in this game with defenseman Yegor Zamula doubtful with an undisclosed injury and forward Sean Couturier questionable with an illness. Couturier has scored eight goals and added 16 assists this year. The Flyers needed his offense against a Devils team that only allows 25.6 shots per game. Philadelphia had won two of their last ten games against opponents who only give up 26.5 or fewer shots per game. They had only pulled off twelve upsets in their thirty-four games this year when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. In the rematch on Wednesday, neither team scored a goal in the first period. Ondrej Palat scored in the opening minute of the second quarter for the Devils with a power-play goal, and New Jersey went on to score three more goals in that period including a second power-play goal from Nathan Bastian. Hughes added a fifth goal in the third period and the Devils walked away with a 5-0 victory. Allen got the shutout after stopping all 24 shots he faced. Some bettors might have assumed that the Devils' recent losing streak was evidence that they were taking a step back. Yet a look at their recent schedule should have given pause given a challenging road trip accounting for most of their losses. Their recent injuries certainly played a role as well. Wednesday’s opportunity to avenge a recent loss back on their home ice was a good spot for what is still a good New Jersey team. Good luck - TDG.

Digging Deeper: Injured Scoring Stars Does Not Necessarily Lead to Unders

Friday, Jan 31, 2025

During the grind of the NBA regular season, it is common that every game of every night involves missing players due to either injury or load management. Successful handicapping of the NBA requires checking the injury and availability reports and staying updated on those statuses. When productive scorers are expected to not take the court for a game, some bettors may be tempted to take the under. While that makes sense, it may not be a wise assumption. These circumstances came into play on Thursday in the game between the Houston Rockets and the Memphis Grizzlies.Both of these teams were missing injured stars in that game, yet we concluded that both those developments may help produce a higher-scoring game despite the betting market pushing the over/under number down with those absent players. The Memphis Grizzlies were without Ja Morant who is dealing with a shoulder injury. He was averaging 22.3 points per game at the time. Yet when he is off the court, the Grizzlies still score at 116.2 points per 100 possession rate, which is just 0.9 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is on the court. Memphis will miss his defensive presence as they give up 4.1 more points per 100 possessions when Morant is off the court. Houston was without Alperen Sengun for that game as he was dealing with a calf injury. The Rockets would miss his 19.1 points per game scoring average, and they score 6.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when he is off the court than when he is on the court. Yet they average more than three more possessions per game when he is off the court playing at a quicker pace. The result was a high-scoring game that Memphis won by a 120-119 score. The oddsmakers installed the over/under in the 223.5-point range before tip-off. The Rockets raced out in the first quarter by scoring 38 points and went into the second quarter with a five-point lead. They went into halftime with 66 points and a 15-point lead. Yet the Grizzlies scored 66 points in the second half as they rallied for the victory. The final score finished over the total. The lessons from this case study regarding betting NBA over/unders are three-fold. Bettors should not simply assume that the absence of productive scorers will produce a lower-scoring game. Using analytics, prospective bettors on this game should investigate the following factors:(1) How much of an impact does the absence of the player have on the team’s scoring efficiency? On/off-court offensive efficiency data helps to answer this question.(2) How much of an impact does the absence of the player have on the team’s defensive efficiency? Offense is only half of the over/under final score equation. The loss of a player’s defensive contributions could overwhelm the help they offer on offense.(3) How much of an impact does the absence of the player have on the team’s pace of play? Increased or decreased offensive/defensive efficiency does not address the entire scoring picture since the number of expected possessions from the pace of play is a multiplier in final score projections. The loss of an elite offensive scorer may not lead to a lower-scoring game if the team plays at a much faster pace with more scoring possessions when the player is off the court. In all instances, these factors need to be considered in relation to the over/under number that the oddsmakers installed for the game. Betting the over in an expected higher-scoring game in a contest missing scoring starts is counter-productive if the oddsmakers already overcompensated by installing an unusually high over/under number. In the instance of this Rockets/Grizzlies game, the oddsmakers initially installed the over/under in the 236.5 range and lowered the number as injury updates came out (and the market responded). Betting the over was a reasonable conclusion in response to that number and the line movement moving in the opposite direction. Good luck - TDG.

Defense is Defining the Surging Los Angeles Rams

Tuesday, Dec 31, 2024

The Los Angeles Rams went into the second-to-last week of the NFL season with an opportunity to clinch the NFC West title. After dealing with injuries early in the season, they rebounded from a 1-4 start by winning eight of ten games to get their record to 9-6. The Rams hosted Arizona in the finale of the three-game card on Saturday riding a four-game winning streak. They beat the New York Jets on the road, 19-9, as a 3-point favorite in their previous game. Getting wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy and back on the field for quarterback Matthew Stafford has played a big role in turning their season around. Yet it has been the play of their young defense that has been the critical difference. In their previous ten games before playing the Cardinals, they held six of their opponents to 20 points or fewer, and they held four of those opponents to 15 points or less. Since week 10 of the regular season going into week 17, the Rams defense ranks tenth in expected points added per play allowed. They are the only team in the league with three players who have 50 or more tackles and ten or more hits on the quarterback. Bryon Young, Kobie Turner, and Braden Fiske all have at least 17 hits on the quarterback this year. Only sixteen other players in the NFL have 10 or more hits on the quarterback and 50 or more tackles this season. Credit goes to general manager Les Snead for his outstanding selections in the NFL draft the last two seasons to completely transform the defensive unit. Young was an outside linebacker taken in the third round from the University of Tennessee in the 2023 NFL draft. Snead then snagged defensive tackle Kobie Turner from the University of Syracuse with his second pick in that third round. In last spring’s NFL draft, he picked defensive tackle Braden Fiske from Florida State in the second round. These players do not even mention Fiske’s teammate at Florida, Jared Verse, as the edge was drafted by Snead with his first pick in the first round. Verse has made the retirement of future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Donald far less bumpy than expected. Head coach Sean McVay is leaning on his running game to help keep this unit fresh. In the last four games, running back Kyren Williams had run the ball 96 times for 421 yards. His 4.4 yards per carry average helps to keep time burning off the clock. Williams running the ball more than 20 times per game is putting less pressure on Stafford. The veteran has thrown only one interception in his last 136 throws after the win against the Jets.This Rams defense might have bent a bit against Arizona, yet they did not break in their low-scoring 13-9 victory. The Cardinals gained 396 yards against them, with 113 of those yards coming from 22 rush attempts. Quarterback Kyler Murray completed 33 of his 48 passes for 321 yards. Yet he threw two interceptions. Arizona’s offense was on the field for 36:55 minutes. The Cardinals' near-400 yards is tempered by them averaging 5.35 yards per play, which was below the 5.5 yards per play Los Angeles is giving up this season and far below the 6.0 yards per play that Arizona is now averaging. The Rams sacked Murray four times in the game, guess who got these sacks? Fiske got two of the sacks, with Young and Turner registering the other two sacks. Los Angeles has held three straight opponents to single digits, and they clinched the NFC West crown with last week’s win. With the young but ever-improving defense and quality rushing attack, the Rams are a dangerous team in the postseason since Stafford is likely to be taking snaps in the fourth quarter in a one-score game.Good luck - TDG.

Is Bryce Young Beginning to Figure It Out?

Monday, Dec 02, 2024

Bryce Young appears to have taken a leap in his ability to operate NFL offenses. He completed 21 of 35 passes for 263 yards with a touchdown pass and no interceptions in Week 12 in the Panthers’ 30-27 loss at home against Kansas City in a very competitive game. After previously being too much of a check-down artist who became very predictable in not challenging the opposing team’s secondary, Young completed 9 of 16 passes of ten or more air yards for 165 yards with a touchdown pass. He also handled the blitz well in that game as he completed 11 of 14 passes for 123 yards with that touchdown pass when Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo sent extra pass rushers. That skill was going to be important in his next game against Tampa Bay since the Buccaneers’ head coach Todd Bowles loves to dial up the blitz. Credit goes to Young for not sulking when he got benched earlier this season but instead using the time to get to work on the challenges that were holding back his development. Head coach Dave Canales also deserves accolades for not giving up on the former number-one pick in the NFL draft. Canales drew praise for his work with Baker Mayfield when he was the Tampa Bay offensive coordinator last year. He knows this Buccaneers defense which should help Young in that game. Since the eighth week of the season going into his game against Tampa Bay on December 1st, Young ranks 21st of 32 starting quarterbacks in expected points added per play. While that is not an elite ranking, it demonstrates his improvement since he ranked last for starting quarterbacks in that category before getting benched and he ranked 31st of 32 quarterbacks in his rookie season last year. Since his return to the field after his benching, he has made nine big-time defined throws and only committed four turnover-worthy plays. His sack rate has dropped from 25% to 12% since his return as well. Young built on his recent growth spurt against the Buccaneers. The second-year pro completed 26 of 46 passes for 298 yards. He threw a touchdown pass without an interception. He added another 17 yards on the ground including another touchdown. Given these recent performances, Young is making the case that he should be a starting quarterback in this league for years. He might even fulfill the promise he once had as the number-one pick in the 2023 NFL draft. It has been a remarkable turnaround for a player who looked like a complete bust when he got benched after the second week of the season. Good luck - TDG.

Be Careful About Taking Los Angeles Chargers Unders

Saturday, Nov 30, 2024

The conventional wisdom regarding Jim Harbaugh’s arrival as the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers is that he has transformed the Justin Herbert-led offense into a run-first attack. It is true that Harbaugh is asking less of Herbert so far this season. After playing in five games last year where he threw 40 or more passes, he has yet to do that this season. The Chargers had not played a game this season that had more than 44 combined points scored before their thrilling 34-27 victory against Cincinnati in week 11 on November 17th. Yet the oddsmakers still installed the over/under for the Monday night “Harbaugh Bowl” against the Baltimore Ravens on November 25th in the high 40s, and it was then bet up into the 50s. It may look easy to take the under given the Chargers' commitment to run the football and play strong defense under head coach Jim Harbaugh, yet we concluded in taking the over that those assumptions may be faulty. Herbert did not throw more than 27 times in his first four games. Yet remember that he was slowed by an ankle injury early in the season that kept him from playing in the preseason. Since their bye week after those first four games, Herbert had thrown the ball 32 or more times in four of his six games. In the shootout the previous week with the Bengals, Herbert completed 17 of 36 passes for 297 yards with two touchdown passes. He had also been more willing to tuck the ball and run lately. He rushed for 65 yards the previous week. In his previous four games, Herbert had run for 148 yards and averaged 7 yards per carry. His ankle seems better. The Chargers have scored 26 or more points in four straight games. Harbaugh is known for pivoting his offensive game plan in big games. As the Michigan head coach, he would often flip the script with his run-first approach by passing the ball more in their annual showdowns with Ohio State or against Alabama in the college football playoff semifinals. Against a Ravens defense that was holding their opponents to 87 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry, Harbaugh may lean on his quarterback who he declared as already one of the best ever earlier in the week. Baltimore is allowing 312 passing yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt. A pass-heavy game plan made sense going into that game.The Chargers scored a touchdown on their first drive and took a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter. The Ravens then got their offense going and went into halftime with a 14-13 lead with the game pace on track to finish over the number. Our over became in doubt when both teams only traded field goals in the third quarter. Yet Baltimore scored two touchdowns early in the fourth quarter to take a 30-16 lead. The Chargers scored a late touchdown to pull within seven points, securing our over with 53 combined points scored. Herbert completed 21 of 36 passes for 218 yards. He added another 29 yards on the ground. That game was the fifth time in their last six games that the Chargers threw more passes than they ran the football. That is a stark change from their first five games when Los Angeles only had one game where they passed the ball more than they ran it.The Chargers have played seven of their eleven games this season under the number. Yet they have played their last three games over the total. So while Harbaugh is not asking Herbert to carry the offense like he had been in the past, the commitment to run the football early in the season may had more to do with his injured ankle rather than Harbaugh wanting to run the 1980s offense he operated for the Chicago Bears with Mike Ditka as their head coach. Bettors assuming the Chargers are a good team to play the under should consider the evolution of their play-calling.Good luck - TDG.

The Miami Dolphins (but not Tua) Continue to Struggle in Cold Weather

Saturday, Nov 30, 2024

The Miami Dolphins have developed the well-earned reputation of struggling when playing in cold weather, yet the oddsmaker only installed them as a field goal underdog in their Monday night game in the chilly temperatures in Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers on the last Thursday Night Football game in November.The Dolphins hit rock bottom with their 30-27 loss at Buffalo earlier in the month lowered their record to 2-6 on the season. They had since won three games in a row to raise their record to 5-6 and keep their postseason hopes alive. Yet the Packers were the best team they had played since losing to the Bills. They followed that up with a win in Los Angeles against the Rams before returning home where they beat Las Vegas and then New England, 34-15, the previous week. The Dolphins had covered the point spread once in their last five games on the road after winning at home in their previous game. Against teams with a winning, they had covered the point spread just twice in their last eight games. In their last six games on the road against winning teams, they had covered the point spread only once. Now Miami travels to Green Bay where it was going to be very cold. Temperatures were expected to drop into the 20s. The Dolphins had an 11-28 record in their franchise history when playing at 32 degrees or lower, and they are on a nine-game losing streak in those games. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had lost all four of his career starts when the temperature was under 40 degrees. The Dolphins had covered the point spread in only one of those four games, and they have been beaten by the point spread by an average of 18 points in those four games. Yet it’s just not in cold weather where Miami with Tagovailoa has not played as well. In stand-alone games, the Dolphins had a 6-10 record with Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback while covering the point spread in just five of those sixteen games. When playing at night, Miami had a 5-8 record with Tagovailoa, covering the point spread in four of those thirteen games. When playing at night against a winning team with Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback, they had a 3-6 record with only three-point spread covers in those nine games. If those winning teams had a winning percentage of 60% or better, then the Dolphins are winless in those five-night games with Tagovailoa with only one point spread cover. Miami had covered the point spread in three of their eleven games when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had covered the point spread in four of their last eleven games on the road when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 42.5 to 49.Sure enough, the Dolphins, bundled in their heavy jackets and crowding around their portal warmers, started slowly in this game. Green Bay went into halftime with a 24-3 lead. They later took a 30-11 lead midway late in the fourth quarter before Miami scored a late touchdown in a 30-17 loss. The Dolphins offense did gain 375 yards, and Tagovailoa’s stat line was good. He completed 37 of 36 passes for 365 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. It’s hard to argue with that performance. Yet the Dolphins were still not competitive in these conditions. They made special teams mistakes. Their defense gave up 388 yards. They fumbled the ball twice. These miscues were not the fault of Tagovailoa. Miami plays in cold weather in their final two games of the season in Cleveland against the Browns and then in New York against the Jets in their last game of the regular season. Tagovailoa’s now 0-5 record in games played below 40 degrees will be mentioned frequently. Yet it would probably be unfair to put the blame on him for that record given his performance in Green Bay against the Packers on the last Thursday night game of the month. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

Still the Same Ole Jets

Thursday, Oct 31, 2024

The New York Jets were a desperate team after general manager Joe Douglas fired head coach Robert Saleh last week after their 23-17 loss to Minnesota in London. The problem with the team was not on the defensive side of the football which was the specialty of the former San Francisco defensive coordinator. The Jets were only scoring 18.6 points per game. Saleh allegedly wanted to fire offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett after the game (as well as in the summer given recent reporting) yet he was the one to lose his job in the end. Douglass elevated defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich to be the interim head coach, and he is well thought of in the building. The team has blocked approaches by other teams to interview him as their potential head coach, so this is probably a real audition for him to keep the job if he can turn around what was a 2-3 team. Ulbrich did not fire Hackett, but he was able to take away his play-calling duties. Former Tennessee offensive coordinator Todd Downing got elevated to call the plays on offense, although his relationship with Aaron Rodgers was unclear. Rodgers had conflicts with Matt LaFleur and Mike McCarthy when those head coaches were calling his plays. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson had lamented the lack of creativity in the play-calling, yet it may take many weeks to overhaul the offense if that is the direction Downing and Ulbrich want to go. Yet it is still Rodgers who has to execute the plays, and he is the one at the line of scrimmage with the authority to call audibles. Maybe the problem was not the defensive head coach but Rodgers himself. When Saleh was fired, he ranked 21st in the NFL with a quarterback rating of 49.1. He ranked 26th with a passer rating of 81.6. His 6.0 yards per attempt average ranked 29th. The Jets’ first game without Saleh was a Monday night showdown at home against the Buffalo Bills. Despite the internal turmoil, a New York upset win as a 1-point underdog would have elevated the Jets into first place in the AFC East. Instead, the Bills pulled out a 23-20 victory.After that loss there are still some considering New York “the best 2-4 team in the league” who are just a few plays away from being 5-1 on the season. Others considered them simply the same old Jets whose two victories were against Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans and Jacoby Brissett and the New England Patriots. We were somewhere in the middle. Unquestionably, New York became a better team on offense after trading for wide receiver Davante Adams the next day after the loss to the Bills. Yet were they quite as good on defense with head coach Robert Saleh who built his reputation as one of the league’s best defensive minds after years of serving as the defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers? At 2-4 and risking dropping to 2-5 against a Steelers team in the hunt for a wildcard spot in the AFC, trailing them by three games with Pittsburgh holding the tie-breaker would be devastating. The pressure was high and the tension could come to a head for this team that was now on a three-game losing streak. Playing the Steelers in Pittsburgh for Sunday Night Football on a short week with an interim head coach and a new play-caller on offense while incorporating a new starting wide receiver only added to the challenge. With all three losses to Denver, Minnesota, and the Bills all being by six points or less, this team is finding ways to lose. While it was expected that Rodgers would quickly incorporate Adams into the offensive attack, the numbers indicated he was simply not playing very well. He was only completing 61.8% of his passes this season, ranking 26th in the league. His 9:5 touchdown to interception ratio was tied for 18th in the league. His passer rating of 84.4 ranked 26th. Facing the Steelers with Russell Wilson making his first start for them, the Jets went into halftime with a 15-13 lead before getting outscored in the second half by a 24-0 margin in a 37-15 upset loss as a 2.5-point favorite. Bettors against teams that got embarrassed on national television is not a great way to build a bank account, yet traveling to Foxboro on a short week to play a 1-6 New England Patriots team was not what a group that suffers from overconfidence needs. The Jets locker room still considered themselves Super Bowl material despite what their record indicated. After adding wide receiver Davante Adams two weeks ago, pass rusher Hassan Reddick ended his holdout and signed a contract this week. He was expected to play. Yet after their listless 10-9 loss at home against Denver a month ago, they were supposed to rebound in London against Minnesota, and then at home against Buffalo on Monday Night Football after firing head coach Robert Saleh, and then last week on Sunday Night Football against the Steelers with Adams reunited with Aaron Rodgers. Finally, the bounce-back great performance seemed to be destined by some for their rematch against the lowly Patriots. New York played their best game of the season last month in their 24-3 thrashing of New England. The oddsmakers opened the Jets as a 6.5-point favorite in many spots, and the market has pushed them to a 7-point favorite. The last time New York was favored by a touchdown or more against the Patriots was on September 12th, 1999. Yet the Jets have not scored more than 20 points in four straight games. Rodgers has only ten touchdown passes in seven games and has thrown seven interceptions. He has been sacked 12 times and taken another 34 quarterback hits during the four-game losing streak. In his last twenty-five starts, Rodgers has an 11-14 record. Maybe this time would be different? New York had won and covered the point spread in their last two games against New England. Yet this franchise has covered the point spread only twice in their last nine games against the Patriots after beating them and covering the point spread in two straight games. Some bettors were already going broke banking on this Jets team to finally start meeting their supposed potential. Yet with their only other victory being against Tennessee, maybe this is who they are. Sure enough, the Jets blew a 13-7 halftime lead to lose at home to New England, 25-22, despite being a 7-point favorite. With a 2-6 record, New York has to win eight of their last nine games to reach ten wins. Maybe they could still make the playoffs with a 9-8 record, yet even them going 7-2 in their final nine games since overly optimistic. How owner Woody Johnson will want to proceed in the offseason is anyone’s guess. Yet after a successful month fading a Jets team, we considered overrated, they may begin to offer point spread value relative to public expectations as they begin to take on the role of the spoiler while teasing their fans as to what could have been.Good luck - TDG.

Will Linus Ullmark Lead the Ottawa Senators Back to the Playoffs?

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024

The Ottawa Senators finished last season with a 37-41-4 record and outside the NHL postseason for the sixth straight season. Early injuries derailed that team. Under new ownership, management, a rookie head coach, and a possible new arena, the Senators are looking to turn the page and enter a new era. With a young core group of players led by Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Drake Batherson, there is reason for optimism for this club. After acquiring a former Vezina Trophy winner goaltender when they traded for Linus Ullmark, the Senators may have the reliable top-flight goaltender they need to get back to the playoffs. Ottawa returned home for the first time since October 19th on Tuesday after completing a three-game road trip with a 5-4 loss at Colorado on Sunday. The Senators had won five straight games at home after playing three or more in a row on the road, so their prospects were encouraging when hosting the St. Louis Blues. Ottawa had won seven of their last ten games at home after losing on the road in their previous game. With eight points coming from a 4-4-0 record, Ottawa was in last place in the Atlantic Division going into that game, yet their eight games played are the lowest of their division rivals. They had a 3-1 record at home where they are scoring 4.3 goals per game. First-year head coach Travis Greene turned to Linus Ullmark will get the start at goalie tonight. The former Boston Bruins goaltender had a 1-2 record this season with a 3.35 goals-against average and a .885 save percentage. Only one of his starts have been at home this year when he led the Senators to a 3-1 victory against Florida on October 10th. He stopped 31 of the 32 shots he faced in that game. Ullmark posted a 2.57 goals against average and a .915 save percentage last season. In his nineteen starts at home for the Bruins last season, he had an 11-3-5 record with a 2.45 goals against average and a .915 save percentage. Ottawa is establishing a nice home-ice advantage as they had won fifteen of their last twenty-three games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as the favorite. The Senators made an early statement in that game by scoring three goals in the first period. They scored another three unanswered goals in the second period and cruised to an 8-1 victory against the Blues. Ullmark was once again outstanding in front of his new home fans as he stopped 26 of the 27 shots he faced. Tkachuk scored two goals with the man advantage in that game. The Senators rank second in the NHL with their power play that is converting at a 42.9% rate. They have scored 12 goals from their 28 power play opportunities. Ottawa is averaging 4.2 goals per game which ranks third in the league. If they can continue to approach that level of offensive production while getting good goaltending from Ullmark, then Ottawa will be very much alive to make the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Yet they need to stay healthy and avoid the injury bug they experienced last season. Good luck - TDG.

Trying to Make Sense of Kirk Cousins' Start with the Atlanta Falcons

Thursday, Sep 19, 2024

The Atlanta Falcons ranked 26th in the league last season by averaging only 18.9 points per game despite having an offensive head coach in Arthur Smith. The conclusion that general manager Terry Fontenot made was that Desmond Ridder was not the answer at quarterback and that Smith’s run-first approach was not the best way to utilize the Falcons' talent on offense. While Fontenot hired Los Angeles Rams defensive coordinator Raheem Morris (who had previously been the defensive coordinator in Atlanta) as the new head coach, he tapped into Sean McVay's coaching tree with Morris bringing along the Rams quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Zac Robinson to be the new offensive coordinator. Fontenot then signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year $180 million free agent deal to be the team’s starting quarterback, and then he drafted Michael Penix with the eighth pick in the first round of the NFL draft. Problem solved, right? Finally, recent first-round picks running back Bijan Robinson, wide receiver Drake London, and tight end Kyle Pitts would be unlocked with better offensive schemes and high-end talent at quarterback. Cousins did not play in the preseason as he continued to recover from his Achilles injury that ended his season prematurely last year. Yet in his first game back last week, Cousins looked old and ineffective in the Falcons’ 18-10 upset loss at home to Pittsburgh despite being a 4-point favorite. Cousins only completed 16 of 26 passes for 155 yards. He threw two interceptions. Perhaps it was just rust that the 36-year-old needed to work off. He was getting accustomed to a new system. Unfortunately, there appeared to be deeper concerns. Cousins barely moved in the pocket. He may not be back to 100% from his leg injury. Or maybe he has lost even more mobility? He was never known for his agility in the pocket. The Steelers’ T.J. Watt had his way with him all game. Yet Robinson’s schemes did not seem to be helping matters. He had Cousins in the shotgun formation for all but one of his snaps. They did not utilize a play-action pass even once, despite that being a staple in McVay’s offenses. He did not throw a pass of 20 or more yards in the air. Perhaps Cousins could flip the switch in his second start for the Falcons for his Monday night game against Philadelphia, despite his notorious record in prime-time games. He had lost ten of his thirteen starts on Monday Night Football with fourteen interceptions. He has thrown at least one pick in nine of those thirteen games for Monday Night Football. Maybe Robinson had Cousins in shotgun in week one to hide his limited mobility? Either way, the Falcon offense did not look much better from the previous seasons under Smith and Ridder at quarterback. Perhaps Penix is the answer, but Morris can not move to him this early in the season with $100 million of his new contract guaranteed. They need more evidence that Cousins cannot work things out. It was fascinating to then see Cousins back under center right away against the Eagles on Monday. Was the reliance on shotgun the previous week an experiment? Was it a short-term tactical diversion? Was it a game-specific adjustment to playing against Watt? Maybe time will tell.Cousins' final numbers look encouraging after expertly leading the Falcons down the field to score the winning touchdown with less than two minutes to go without any timeouts left. He completed 20 of 29 passes for 241 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Yet did anyone watching the game think Cousins was playing very well before that final winning? Atlanta only scored six points in the 1st Half, and they only had nine points late in the third quarter. Tight end Kyle Pitts is not being featured in the offense. If not for that final drive when Cousins completed 5 of 6 passes for 70 yards, his stat line looks much different. It took some questionable game management decisions by Philadelphia head coach Nick Sirianni and a dropped pass by Saquon Barkley which would have iced the game and stopped Cousins from even getting the opportunity to get one final opportunity to lead the offense. The post-game narrative would be much different if the Falcons were now 0-2 coming off a game where Cousins completed 15 of 23 passes for 171 yards with only one touchdown pass and scoring just 15 points. If not for the controversial decision by Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to not blitz Cousins on that final drive and just play prevent defense, Atlanta may not have scored that winning touchdown. Being gifted that opportunity allowed the Falcons to score seven of the 32 points that have scored this season, representing 21.8% of their scoring production. Cousins deserves full credit for taking advantage of the soft coverage to orchestrate that final winning drive. He looked more comfortable operating the two-minute offense that involves the team’s base plays that he did earlier in the game as he continues to learn a new system. Perhaps he will continue to operate the offense as he did in the second half as he gets more comfortable with these schemes and back into game shape after missing so much time. Yet bettors who only look to his final stat line without accounting for the “eye test” regarding how he looked earlier in the game may be coming to a hasty conclusion regarding how good the Atlanta will be with him under center this season.Good luck - TDG.

Assessing Caleb Williams' Progress from Week 1 to Week 2

Monday, Sep 16, 2024

Rookie Caleb Williams struggled in his professional debut, and there are several reasons why his successful transition to the NFL may take some time. The Bears won their first game with him as their starting quarterback last week with their 24-17 victory against Tennessee, yet he completed only 14 of 29 passes last week for just 93 passing yards. His passer rating was a low 55.7 in that game and he averaged -0.39 expected points per pass play. Williams became only the eleventh quarterback in the history of the NFL to throw the ball at least 25 times in his first professional start yet fail to pass for at least 100 yards. He joined a club with such illustrious names like Tommy DeVito, Desmond Ridder, and Brett Hundley, and the track record of the other ten quarterbacks on the list in their second career start is not good. Those quarterbacks lost twenty-two of their twenty-seven second starts with a 10-16-1 ats mark. While improvement from the first and second start is expected, those numbers suggest that Williams will not be able to simply flip a switch with an adjustment or two. Williams seemed surprised by the speed of the opposing defense. In taking several bad sacks, he discovered that his great mobility is not as dynamic at the NFL level as it was facing Pac-12 defenders. His accuracy was never top-level at USC, and those concerns continued in his debut. Too often, he stared down his intended wide receiver target which led to two of his passes being knocked down. Williams thrived in college with his ability to improvise and make big plays. It was this skill that rendered comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. Yet Mahomes only started the final game of the regular season in his rookie season after learning as an understudy under the veteran Alex Smith. Williams needs to improve his understanding of working in the pocket whether it be reading defensive schemes, working progressions, and avoiding the rush but resisting the urge to break the pocket.Rookie quarterbacks had only won twenty-five of eighty-two games when starting in a prime-time game. It's even worse for these rookies early in the season as they had only won four of the fourteen games when a rookie was a starting quarterback in a prime-time game in the first four weeks of the season. This was one of the reasons we were the Houston Texans to cover the -5.5-point spread. The Texans narrowly covered that number with their 19-13 victory. As Chris Collingsworth pointed out frequently during the game on NBC for Sunday Night Football, there was plenty to like from Williams' performance against the Texans. Most importantly, he seemed more focused on staying in the pocket and not bailing too early on the play. He also respected the speed of the opposing defenders and accepted negative plays rather than make things worse with ill-advised decisions to try to use his athleticism to extend plays. He got sacked times but did a good job of taking his medicine and not making things worse. He got hit eleven times which is an indictment of the play of his offensive line. Williams did a nice job in choosing when to use his legs to gain yards. He ran the ball five times for 44 yards, yet he did not take off and run too early on the play. As opposed to rookie Jaylen Daniels, Williams knows how to slide when rushing down field to avoid injury. His work with the slip-and-slide which was documented on Hard Knocks last month helped him get comfortable with that skill. Yet Williams still has plenty to work on. His accuracy continues to be a work in progress. He only completed 23 of 37 passes. He threw two interceptions. Too often, he was late on throws or wildly off the mark. He has a ways to go in being consistently effective in the pocket and completing passes in tight windows. Good luck - Team Del Genio.

Appreciating Framber Valdez's Midseason Breakout

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

It was Framber Valdez’s turn in the Houston Astros starting rotation on Friday (8/30) pitching against the Kansas City Royals. For the season, the left-hander had a 13-6 record along with a 3.27 era and a 1.14 whip in twenty-three starts. Yet even those good numbers did not tell the whole story of his season. Since Valdez began relying more on his curveball, he has gotten into one of the best grooves of his career. After not throwing his curveball more than 32% of the time in any start all season, Valdez used his curveball for a season-high (at the time) in 39% of his pitches on July 10th. He struck out ten batters and gave up only one earned run in seven innings against Miami. Since that effort, Valdez has thrown his curveball at least 37% of the time. In his last eight starts, the lefty has a 2.25 era and a 0.87 whip. He has struck out 67 strikeouts in those 52 innings. Averaging 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings while also inducing ground balls in 60% of the batted balls against him is a lethal combination. That season ground ball rate ranks in the 97th percentile in MLB. Opposing hitters have a low barrel rate of their batted balls against him of just 4.7%, ranking in the highest tenth percentile. In what was our MLB American League Game of the Month for August, Valdez looked poised to pitch a great game against the Royals. Hitting is down this season with the MLB batting average at .244, the on-base percentage at .313, and the slugging percentage at .401. Kansas City has .270/.331/.445 hitting plays when playing at home at Kauffman Stadium. Yet on the road going into that game, the Royals' splits dropped to .244/.296/.402 which is right at or below (the on-base percentage) the MLB average.As expected, Valdez was brilliant. He did not allow a hit in his seven scoreless innings of work. He struck out seven batters and only walked three. He got 15 whiffs against Kansas City hitters, and 28% of his pitches were either called strikes or a whiff (CSW rate). His curveball continued to be outstanding. It got a 73% strike rate against the Royals and a whiff on nine of his 37 curves thrown in that game.He left the game after throwing 98 pitches, with 60 of them going for strikes. The Astros clung to a 1-0 lead at the time. Unfortunately for him, he did get the victory after closer Josh Hader gave up two runs to the Royals in the top of the ninth inning. Fortunately for us, Jose Altuve's double in the bottom of the ninth inning scored the winning run to preserve our play on the Astros.Valdez begins September with a 13-6 record in his twenty-four starts. In his 150 1/3 innings, he has a 3.11 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He should get another five starts before the end of the regular season to build on those numbers. Good luck - TDG.

Reconsidering the Kansas City Royals' Playoff Prospects

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

The Las Vegas Sportsbook installed the Kansas City Royals’ season over/under win total at 73.5. The Royals rewarded bettors who were confident enough in them to wager the over on Monday (8/26) when they beat Cleveland, 9-4. With their 75-62 record going into September, Kansas City is in second place in the American League Central, trailing the Guardians by 2 1/2 games. If the playoffs were to start today, the Royals would claim the second wildcard spot. Yet one of the benefits of playing in their division is that they get to play the dumpster fire that is they get to play the Chicago White Sox for thirteen games. Manager Matt Qautraro’s team beat the CrySox in twelve of those thirteen games to take almost full advantage of that schedule. Unfortunately, Kansas City does not have the White Sox on their schedule for the rest of the season. They have a .547 winning percentage this season, yet take away their games against the White Sox, they are then only two games over .500 and post a .508 winning percentage. The White Sox caveat also affects their impressive +98 run differential this season which ranks second in the American League and is the fifth best in MLB. Yet +43 of that run differential comes in their thirteen games with the Chicago Southsiders. Their average margin of victory against the White Sox was +3.31 runs per game this year. Put another way, 43.9% of their run differential comes from their thirteen games with Chicago. The Royals have also played their best baseball when at home where they have a 41-28 record. Hitting is down this season with the MLB batting average at .244, the on-base percentage at .313, and the slugging percentage at .402. Kansas City has .270/.331/.445 hitting plays when playing at home at Kauffman Stadium. Yet on the road, the Royals' splits drop to .242/.295/.399 which is below those MLB averages. The Royals have a 34-34 record when playing away from home. Take away their six games on the road at Guaranteed Rate Field against the White Sox, their record falls below .500 at 29-33.They begin September on a four-game losing streak after losing on the road against Houston on Saturday, 5-2. They have lost the first three games of their four-game series against the Astros in Minute Maid Park by seven combined runs. They have not scored more than three games in those three games. Kansas City opens the new month with a difficult first eleven games. After completing their series with the Astros, they return home to host Cleveland and Minnesota in a pair of important AL Central series. They then go on the road for a three-game series in New York Yankees. That six-game road trip concludes with three games in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. They come back home for an easier six-game home stand against Detroit and San Francisco, which will complete their home schedule in the regular season. Their final six games are on the road against Washington and then Atlanta. Good luck - TDG.

Will the Real Robbie Ray (for 2024) Please Stand Up?

Wednesday, Jul 31, 2024

While there is a logjam in the National League wildcard race, the San Francisco Giants went into the final day in July only five games behind Arizona San Diego for the third and final wildcard spot. Don’t count manager Bob Melvin’s team out quite yet as they have endured several injuries this season. They may have one of the best starting rotations in baseball for the stretch run in the next two months. Logan Webb is steady and Blake Snell seems to have captured his outstanding form as he usually does midseason. Yet it was the return of Robbie Ray from Tommy John surgery that should have the San Francisco faithful excited. In his first game pitching for the Giants last Wednesday, the left-hander settled down from a wobbly first inning to give up only one earned run in five innings in Los Angeles against the Dodgers. There were several highly encouraging takeaways from that performance. His command was good as he walked only two batters. The velocity on his four-seam fastball reached 95.2 miler per hour which was his highest mark since July of 2022. All three of his pitches played a part in his 22 whiffs. He got nine whiffs from his four-seamer, another six from his slider, and then seven from his curveball. The velocity on his slider was up three to four miles per hour from 2022, peaking at 90 mph against the Dodgers. He added a wrinkle to his curveball with knuckle-curve variation. Ray is a former Cy Young award winner. If that effort was his new floor after only pitching once last year before his arm injury, then the sky is the limit for him and the Giants moving forward this season. In his last full season in 2022 for Seattle, Ray had a 12-12 record with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 32 starts. Those numbers look even better in hindsight since the baseball was livelier that season. He won the American League Cy Young Award the previous year with a 13-7 record, a 2.84 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP. He led the league with 248 strikeouts in his 193 1/3 innings. Pitching so well after his extended absence from facing Major League hitting gave many (including us) that he was poised for another strong effort against the Oakland A’s in his second start of the season on Tuesday. Yet Ray gave up four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings before getting yanked by Melvin. He gave up seven hits and walked three batters. His whiff rate dropped to only eleven. His four-seam fastball was still upstairs, yet it was the decline of his curveball that was most noticeable from his excellent effort against the Dodgers. He only threw six of his fifteen curveballs for strikes. Did he just have a bad start against the A’s, or was the initial performance against the Dodgers the outlier performance? Certainly, the Giants want to know. So do bettors. It seems like his command of his curveball is key. If that pitch is being thrown for strikes, then hitters cannot sit on his four-seam fastball. If is not hitting the zone, even Oakland can rough him up.Good luck - TDG.

Seth Lugo: Poster Boy for the State of MLB Pitching in 2024

Saturday, Jul 13, 2024

If there is a pitcher who embodies the state of Major League pitching in 2024, it is Seth Lugo. The right-hander has been outstanding this season with an 11-2 record, a 2.17 era, and a 1.03 whip. He has fourteen quality starts this season with five in a row going into his start on Saturday at Boston against the Red Sox.After throwing six shutout innings against Cleveland the previous Sunday, he has not allowed an earned run in two straight outings. He has a 1.46 era and a 1.00 whip in his last four starts. He induces a lot of fly balls. This season, 37.6% of the batted balls against him are fly balls to the outfield, which is up over his 35.2% career average. The danger of these fly balls is that the more that are hit into the outfield, the more that will clear the fence. Lugo gave up 19 home runs last year pitching for San Diego which was the most he had ever given up. Of course, he has spent most of the middle seasons of his career pitching out of the bullpen. Last year, he averaged 1.17 home runs allowed per nine innings, which was not much higher than his 1.05 homers per nine inning rate for his career. Yet the 13.3% fly ball-to-home run rate he gave up was the second-highest mark in his career. If there was a pitcher who could benefit from a less lively baseball coming into this year, it was Lugo. The baseballs this season seem “dead” when compared to previous years with the biggest impact being fewer home runs. The home run-to-fly ball rates are down all across the league. For Lugo, the changes are drastic. He has a 7.4% home run-to-fly ball ratio this year is the lowest mark in his career, beating his HR/FB ratio of 10.0% in 2018 when he was pitching for the New York Mets. He has only given up nine home runs, and his 0.70 home runs per nine innings allowed is the lowest of his career. Yet Lugo is not just benefitting from the changes in the baseball this year. With the influence of analytics calling on pitchers to throw as hard as possible down the center of the plate and then rely on their stuff to create movement and deception, Lugo’s diverse arsenal makes him one of the trickiest pitchers to face. The 34-year-older has always been somewhat of what used to be called a junk-baller. He was throwing five different pitches when he joined the Mets in 2016. He had a four-seam fastball that moved differently than his two-seam fastball. He had a conventional curve ball, slider, and changeup as off-speed pitches. In 2017, he added a sweeper but eventually stopped using it. Last year in San Diego when he signed as a starting pitcher, he added a sweeper and a slurve. This year, he brought back that cutter for an eighth pitch. Lugo scouts what pitches opposing hitters prefer to see and then offers the opposite type of pitch. Lugo's batted ball analytic projections are not favorable since he does not strike out enough batters to offer him a margin for error, yet that may even be changing. He struck out ten Guardians in his last start, and he has 30 strikeouts in his last four starts over 24 2/3 innings. If Lugo continues to miss more bats, he will be very tough to beat in the second half of the season.Good luck - TDG.

The Sudden Decline of Kevin Gausman

Sunday, Jun 30, 2024

Team Del Genio grew concerned with Kevin Gausman earlier this month. The Toronto right-hander was trending in the wrong direction. He had lost several ticks on his fastball which has made that pitch less effective. His splitter was not moving as much either, and with the velocity discrepancy between this pitch and his fastball, hitters were teeing off on this pitch. Gausman lacks a reliable third pitch to generate whiffs, and that helps explain why his strikeout rate has plummeted. After peaking in 2020 with a 32.3% strikeout rate when pitching for San Francisco and striking out 31.1% of opposing hitters last year for the Blue Jays, Gausman was striking out only 23.8% of opposing hitters this season going into his start against the Boston Red Sox on June 19th. That was his lowest strikeout rate in six years. At the time, some bettors may have looked to opposing hitters .327 batting average for the balls put into play against him and concluded he had been unlucky. We look at pitcher’s babip and compare it to the MLB average which tends to be in the low .290s. Yet we also compare a one-year babip to that pitcher’s career babip. Gausman always runs a high babip, his career batting average for the balls put into play against him is .316. Hitters were finding too many opportunities to tee off against him. His hard-hit rate allowed was 38.3% which is the highest in his last four seasons. Overall, he had a 5-5 record with a 4.08 era and a 1.27 whip in fourteen starts going into that start against the Red Sox. Yet those statistics had been propped up with some outstanding results against some of the weakest lineups. He threw his first complete-game shutout two prior at Oakland. He threw 5 1/3 shutout innings earlier this season at Washington. He gave up only one run in starts against the Chicago White Sox and Detroit. Take away those four starts and Gausman’s era rose to a 5.92 mark. Gausman gave up five runs (four earned) in 5/3 innings against Boston. He served up two home runs, and that game flew over the total that we took in that game. He next pitched at Boston on June 25th. The Blue Jays won that game, yet they got little help from Gausman in that one. He gave up four runs (three earned) in six innings. He served up another two gopher balls. Gausman had a tough assignment to end the month in a home date against the New York Yankees on June 30th. In an 8-1 loss, he gave up seven runs in only 4 1/3 innings. He gave up seven hits including another home run and walked five Yankee hitters. Since raising our concerns about Gausman, he has a 7.88 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in his last three starts. He has walked nine batters in those 16 innings and given up five home runs. He begins July with a 6-7 record, a 4.75 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP. His strikeout rate of 22.8% is the lowest since 2018. Even more concerning, take away his four plum assignments against Oakland, Washington, Detroit, and the Chicago White Sox and his ERA rises to 6.40. When Gausman is on the hill, we want to be considering overs or playing against the Blue Jays until he regains velocity on his four-seamer again.Good luck - Team Del Genio.

Freddy Peralta Was a "Buy Low" Opportunity in the Middle of June

Sunday, Jun 30, 2024

Freddy Peralta had a 4-4 record going into his start on June 19th. His ERA was 4.38 and he had a 1.20 WHIP. Those numbers were disappointing to the Milwaukee Brewers after he posted a 12-10 record last year with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He was coming off a bad outing where he allowed six runs in 5 1/3 innings against Cincinnati. The right-hander’s velocity was fine in that game, and he did get 16 whiffs. We were on the Brewers in that game on June 19th when they were in Los Angeles to play the Angels. We noted at the time that in his previous four starts, Peralta posted a 3.42 era and a 1.14 whip. Those results against the Reds appeared to be just a blip on the radar. His fastball is better than ever with it being rated at 127 from the Stuff+ measurements (with a 100 being considered an MLB average pitch). and his change-up and slider have been more precise this season. Milwaukee had won eight of their twelve games this season when Peralta was their starting pitcher and the oddsmakers installed them as the money line favorite at -110 or higher.Milwaukee would win that game by a 2-0 score. Peralta only gave up three hits and walked two batters while striking out eight of the Angels hitters. The win improved his record to 5-4. He was probably pitching better than his 4.06 era would indicate. He had a 1.17 whip. The right-hander’s velocity was fine against the Angels, and he did get 16 whiffs. We backed the Brewers again in Peralta’s next start at home against the Texas Rangers on June 24th. Milwaukee won the game, 6-3, yet Peralta did not get the decision. He gave up two earned runs in five innings despite only giving up four base hits. He struck out six batters. We considered Peralta once again in his start on June 30th at home against the Chicago Cubs. Ultimately, we passed on Milwaukee given the price with oddsmakers installing the Brewers as a money line favorite in the -190 range. The Cubs were sending out Kyle Hendricks who had been pitching well in his previous two starts. Yet our decision to forego the Brewers did not have anything to do with a lack of confidence in Peralta. He delivered against Chicago by allowing only two hits and one earned run in seven innings, with Milwaukee winning the game by a 7-1 score. He struck out eight Cub hitters and walked only two. In his last three starts since that bad effort against the Reds, Peralta has a 2-0 record with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. He has 22 strikeouts in those 18 innings, and the Brewers have won all three games. He begins July with a 6-4 record along with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. His outstanding strikeout rate of 30.9% matches his strikeout percentage last season for Milwaukee. He was better than his 4.06 ERA in the middle of the month suggested. We will still look for opportunities to back Peralta, but the buy-low value he presented against the Angels and Rangers appears to be gone -- unfortunately. Good luck — Team Del Genio.

The Low-Scoring Trend in the Western Conference Finals Returned in Game 5

Friday, May 31, 2024

The Edmonton Oilers evened the Western Conference finals at 2-2 with their 5-2 victory in Game 4 on Wednesday. After Games 2 and 3 in this series had seven and eight combined goals, we projected for scoring the fifth game of this series akin to the Oilers’ 3-1 victory in Game 1. The under was the Team’s NHL Total of the Month. The Oilers are getting better goaltending from Stuart Skinner who stopped 20 of the 22 shots he faced in Game 4. Going into Game 5, he had not given up more than two goals in five of his last six starts in the postseason, and he has an improved .901 save percentage in those six games. Edmonton’s defense is doing a good job of limiting the scoring chances of the Stars. Going into Friday’s game, Dallas was averaging only 24.3 chances per game in this series, and only 9.3 of these chances per game are considered high-danger chances. The Oilers lead all teams in the playoffs by not allowing a goal in 93.2% of their opponent’s power play opportunities. The Stars had not scored in their nine power plays in this series. Edmonton had played eleven of their last fifteen games on the road under the number after winning their previous game by two or more goals. After playing Games 3 and 4 at home, they went back on the road for Game 5, and they had played 16 of their last 25 under the total after playing two games in a row at home. Dallas had played eleven of their last sixteen games under the number after losing their previous game by two or more goals. They had played five of their last seven games under the total after losing on the road by multiple goals. The Stars had played twenty-two of their last thirty-two games at home under the total after a loss by more than one goal. They had given up eight goals in the last two games, yet they had played five of their last seven games under the total after allowing three or more goals in two straight games. Goalie Jake Oettinger had still been playing well in this postseason. He has a .917 save percentage and a 2.20 goals-against average in seventeen playoff games. Dallas was rested after getting six days off after winning their series with Colorado on May 17th. They had played ten of their last twelve games at home under the number when playing for the fifth time or less in the last two weeks. In the Stars' previous four games in the playoffs this year, three of those games finished under the total. Dallas had thwarted all six of the Oilers’ power plays in this series, yet Edmonton finally broke that streak late in the first period in Game 5 when Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored with the man advantage. He added a second power-play goal early in the second period to give the Oilers a 2-0 lead. They scored just after the first minute to extend their lead to 3-0 early in the second period, and that ended the scoring in the second twenty minutes. Wyatt Johnston got the Stars on the board just after fourteen minutes in the third period, yet Dallas could not beat Skinner a second time and took the 3-1 loss. The Stars had only 20 shot attempts on net which continues a disturbing trend for them. Since getting 32 shots on net in Game 1, they have seen their activity drop to 25 shots in Game 2, 22 shots in Games 3 and 4, before the 20 shots in Game 5. Skinner improved his save percentage to .908 in his seven starts in the playoffs. Oettinger let three shots beat him on the Oilers’ 26 attempts. The under may be tempting for some bettors, yet we are likely to consider other options in this potential close-out game with the Stars playing on the road on the base ice in Edmonton. Good luck - TDG.

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