Viktor Hovland had missed three straight cuts but he was able to find his putter to win the Valspar Championship by one shot over Justin Thomas, his first PGA Tour win since the 2023 TOUR Championship. His +1.83 SG: Putting was his highest of any career PGA Tour event so it was lightning in a bottle to get the victory at 80/1 odds. The Florida swing concluded and the PGA Tour heads to Houston for the Texas Children's Houston Open from Memorial Park Golf Course. This will be the fifth straight year (no event in 2023) that it has played host and is a par 71, playing to 7,412 yards that tends to play even longer. Unlike the last two events that demanded elite ball striking, Memorial Park challenges the short game.
Before being the current stop, Memorial Park went through a massive renovation in 2019. It is considered one of the top municipal courses in the country with over 60,000 rounds played annually so it was a challenge to set up to make it playable for the public and yet to challenge the tour pros. It was not overly lengthened while 34 bunkers were removed bringing it down from 54 to 20. A lot of the greenside bunkers that were taken out are now undulating slopes where players need to be imaginative to get up and down. The Bermuda greens are big and sloped with a lot of crowns so putting is a challenge as well. The top two key factors this week are SG: Around The Green and SG: Putting (Bermuda).
Stephan Jaeger is the defending champion as he won by one shot over five players for his first PGA Tour win. It looked like a playoff was inevitable but Scottie Scheffler missed a five-foot putt on the 72nd hole to give Jaeger the victory. He will look to become only the second player to defend the title as Vijay Singh won back-to-back in 2004 and 2005 while also becoming just the second three-time champion along with Curtis Strange. There is another fairly strong field on hand highlighted by Scheffler (4/1) and Rory McIlroy (7/1) and in total, 11 of the top 30 in the OWGR will be competing. It is a big odds drop off after those two with Aaron Rai, Wyndham Clark, J.J. Spaun and Tony Finau all next closest at 30/1.
When you think of Texas weather in the spring, wind is the first thing that comes to mind and there will be plenty of it all four days but nothing like we have seen the last two weeks. Rain is predicted all four days as well but again, nothing that will be overly problematic to really affect play or cause delays unless we see some pop up thunderstorms which are always in play. The Thursday AM/Friday PM wave did have the edge last week as predicted but both waves this week should be on equal ground with no advantages either way.
Top four key categories this week in order:
Strokes Gained: Around The GreenStrokes Gained: PuttingStrokes Gained: ApproachBogey Avoidance
Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:
Jason DayOdds: Win 3,500 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 300Payout: Win 17,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,500.00 ~ Top Ten 750.00
Day is coming off a WD at THE PLAYERS Championship which was due to illness and not injury. He is positive in all SG categories with SG: Off-The-Tee being the lowest at +0.14 but that is not such a huge category here. He is No. 66 in SG: Around-The-Green which is above average albeit not great but he is trending the right way with his putter as he was +1.61 in SG: Putting at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, his best of the season which resulted in a T8. He did not make the cut last year but had a T7 and a T16 in two of the previous three editions.
Min Woo LeeOdds: Win 3,500 ~ Top Five 650 ~ Top Ten 300Payout: Win 17,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,625.00 ~ Top Ten 750.00
Min Woo was right there at THE PLAYERS Championship as he entered Saturday with a share of the lead but stumbled with a Saturday 78 and he ended up T20. That was his fourth T20 of the season in six starts and his lone MC was at The Arnold Palmer Invitational where he was -3.35 in SG: Approach, his second worst in his career PGA Tour starts, the 2023 Masters only being worse. He is No. 9 in SG: Around-The-Green and No. 15 in SG: Putting making him perfect for this course so it is not a concern that this is his first start here.
Alex SmalleyOdds: Win 5,500 ~ Top Five 900 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 27,500.00 ~ Top Five 2,250.00 ~ Top Ten 1,000.00
Smalley is coming off a MC at the Valspar Championship, his second of the season, but when he makes the weekend, he has been at the top of the leaderboard. He has finished T21 or better in six made starts and while his best finish is a T10, his game fits here. He was -SG: Around-The-Green for the first time this season and he is ranked No. 5 overall in that category. His putter has been solid as well as he is No. 41 in SG: Putting so his short game is in fine form. While he missed the cut here last year, he has a T4 in 2022 and a T15 in 2021.
Max GreysermanOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 1,000 ~ Top Ten 450Payout: Win 30,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,500.00 ~ Top Ten 1,125.00
We last used Greyserman at the Farmers Insurance Open and while it resulted in a T48, he had nothing going after a letdown from The American Express the previous week. He is coming off a MC in his last start at THE PLAYERS Championship but had three consecutive T25s prior to that and his -3.40 SG: Approach at TPC Sawgrass was by far the worst of his career. His game fits here as his putting and around the green games are back on track and he finished only two shots back in Houston last year, good for a T7.
Results through The Valspar Championship (8 Tournaments):
Win: -18,000Top Five: -3,255Top Ten: -225
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