by Nelly's Sports
Sunday, Mar 23, 2025Opening Day for the 2025 MLB season is almost here. Our projections for the 2025 season are complete and we have a season win total opinion for each division in the National League. Here are three selections in the National League for 2025 baseball.
NL EAST
UNDER 91½ Philadelphia Phillies: The Braves and Mets look like serious NL contenders and Philadelphia’s 95-win record last season included a .500 record after the All-Star break. The Phillies were .500 in games vs. the Braves and Mets last season but had a surprisingly strong record vs. the NL West, going 10-2 vs. the Dodgers and Padres, a feat that will be extremely difficult to repeat. Philadelphia won 23 one-run games in 2024 and received overachieving seasons from Ranger Suarez and Christopher Sanchez on the mound. Aaron Nola also had a bounce-back season in what has been a run of decline in recent years. Plugging Jesus Luzardo into the rotation hasn’t worked out for the Athletics or Marlins outside of a brief run of success in 2023 as his talent hasn’t translated to sustained MLB success. The bullpen also has some question marks and with Suarez and Matt Strahm potentially starting the season on the IL, the Phillies could face a pinch on the pitching staff in April. Philadelphia remains a strong NL contender but last year was the first time the Phillies topped 90 wins since 2011 as the 2022 NL Champions were just an 87-win team.
NL CENTRAL
UNDER 81½ Wins Cincinnati Reds: The Reds have some promising arms in the rotation, but consistency has been a challenge and last season the Reds won just 77 games with a surprise career year from Nick Martinez. Cincinnati didn’t have a single pitcher reach 151 innings last season as there is injury history with all the starting options and it appears that Andrew Abbott is starting the season in the IL, as is the team’s primary catcher Tyler Stephenson which could be a negative for the pitching staff as well as the loss of his offensive potential. Elly De La Cruz wows everyone but the depth in the lineup isn’t as strong as the other National League Central contenders. The Reds had awful results in one-run games last season, going 15-28, but the bullpen is likely again to be a weak spot for the team and the Reds won the season series with the Cubs and Cardinals last season despite finishing behind those teams in the NL Central race. Cincinnati had the third worst home record in the NL as well and the Reds haven’t had a winning record at home since 2021 as it is a tough ballpark to pitch in, particularly for a staff without many veterans.
NL WEST
UNDER 85½ San Diego Padres: The Padres received great unexpected contributions from Michael King, Matt Waldron, and Randy Vasquez on the mound last season and replicating those returns isn’t a given for this group. Yu Darvish has been hurt this spring while Joe Musgrove had off-season surgery and will miss the season. Nick Pivetta was picked up to join the rotation, but he sits 15 games below .500 in his career decisions despite consistently pitching for competitive teams in Philadelphia and Boston. The Padres went 10-2 in extra-inning games last season and won the season series vs. the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Giants last season. San Diego also went 43-20 after the All-Star break last season for an amazing closing run that will be difficult to match. San Diego finished ahead of Arizona last season in the NL West despite a worse scoring differential and last season’s 93-win season was the second best win count in franchise history. San Diego won only 82 games in 2023 and the risk of this team falling out of the playoff race appears greater than the chances of the Padres finding the playoffs again.
