June Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of June, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four American League starters which you’ll likely want to likely avoid supporting moving forward after fortunate recent stretches of starting efforts on the mound that are not likely sustainable. 

Michael Lorenzen – Texas Rangers

The Rangers have been dealt a great deal of injuries to the pitching staff this season, but veteran Michael Lorenzen has stepped up as a solid member of the rotation. Lorenzen did throw a no-hitter last season but has a rather average career track record, mostly with the Reds before bouncing around the past few seasons. Lorenzen has a career FIP of 4.35 and his FIP this season is 4.70 yet he has produced a 3.04 ERA in 77 innings in 2024 so far. In his first five June starts Lorenzen has a 2.51 ERA, but his FIP is nearly double that at 4.90. His K/9 in those starts is just 5.7 and he has allowed five home runs in those five starts despite being 2-0 in decisions. His best start in that run was a scoreless outing against the struggling Marlins and it is hard to envision Lorenzen maintaining that pace the rest of the season. 

Tarik Skubal – Detroit Tigers

While the Tigers have disappointed this season, buried in a more competitive AL Central than most expected, it has been a breakthrough season for Tarik Skubal. A ninth round pick in 2018, Skubal struggled in his MLB appearances in 2020 and 2021 but took steps forward in abbreviated campaigns in 2022 and 2023. He is currently on pace to be an All-Star this season with a 9-3 record and a 2.32 ERA while posting great strikeout and walk rates. Skubal has commanded some more attention and is getting priced like an All-Star pitcher but his trajectory in June has been negative as his FIP is 4.05 in his last five starts and he was hit hard in a pair or road outings against Atlanta and Houston. His K/9 has fallen in June while his walk and home run rates have climbed. Skubal has only once made more than 21 starts in a season so it will be interesting to see if his arm can handle a full season workload now counted on as the staff ace, with Detroit likely to be a trade deadline seller as the support around him on the field and in the bullpen may get worse the rest of the season.  

Ben Lively – Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians have produced one of the best records in baseball this season and Ben Lively has been a strong contributor for the rotation. Lively has bounced around significantly in his career including three seasons in the KBO while very little in his career track record suggested that he would suddenly become a quality MLB starter at age 32. Lively has been a great story but his 3.03 ERA over 13 starts will be difficult to maintain. Lively has a 4.23 FIP and his 7.7 K/9 is quite modest by today’s standards. Lively has also managed to strand 86 percent of his baserunners this season, about 10 percent better than his career average. He has produced a 2.15 ERA at home and month-by-month this season his numbers have deteriorated slightly with June being his worst month so far this season. In five June starts Lively has a 4.29 FIP next to his 3.42 ERA and his K/9 has fallen to just 6.2. Lively also faced only one winning team in his five June starts and with Cleveland’s great record, Lively may start to command pricing that is hard to justify in the coming weeks. 

Corbin Burnes – Baltimore Orioles 

There is no denying that Corbin Burnes is one of MLB’s most talented pitchers and with a 2.28 ERA, his first season in Baltimore has been a success. His FIP is 3.31 however, the second highest of the past five seasons in his career and his K/9 is just 8.4, his lowest since his 38-inning first season at the MLB level. Burnes has beat his HR/9 and BB/9 rates of the past two seasons so far this season and he has an 83 percent strand rate in his 17 starts in 2024, well above his career average. Burnes is on pace for a career high in innings pitched as well and that could take a toll late in the season with Burnes only once surpassing 200 innings in his career. That was in 2022 when he wound up struggling late in the season, missing a chance at back-to-back Cy Young awards while the Brewers slipped out of the playoff picture despite leading the division for nearly three months. In his five June starts his K/9 has slipped to just 7.4 while his FIP of 3.77 towered over his 2.12 ERA. Burnes may be worth looking to fade in July and August given his workload and season splits that suggest he has not pitched quite as well as his record and ERA may suggest.