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Matt Fargo's Sports Picks For Sale

Hot Streaks and Achievements

  • 27-22-2 CBB Game of the Year Run
  • 52-37-1 NBA Game of the Month Run
  • Winning Sunday Starts EARLY

Biography

Matt Fargo is one of the most respected and consistent handicappers since 2000, and his thorough analysis has earned him a devoted following.

Active since:  2000

Location:  Fairport, NY

Matt broke into the professional handicapping scene back in 2000 but he was far from raw as sports betting had been in his life for many years prior.  He made a name for himself with numerous top five finishes at a prominent independent national sports monitor in his first three years, and winning handicapping titles has been a mainstay with Matt ever since.  Consider 2018.  In that year, Matt finished #3 in All Sports combined at Sports Watch Monitor!  And Matt ranked among the Top 3 in the NHL in two of the last three hockey seasons.  Consistent winning is the name of the game and that is what Matt provides.  He has become one of the most recognized and respected handicappers around and that is by no accident.  His top notch analysis backs up every play so he doesn't just give you winners, he tells you exactly why.

While specific systems are not used on a daily basis, Matt is considered a situational handicapper above anything else.  Analyzing each and every game, no matter how big or how small the card may be, is essential to be able to pull out the best situational plays.  He is a contrarian at heart which is one of the best ways to beat the books on a steady basis.

Some handicapping highlights (documented at Sports Watch Monitor):

#1 2015-16 NFL Regular Season

#1 2015-16 CFB Regular Season

#3 2015-16 CFB Bowl Season

#1 2015-16 NBA Regular Season

#1 2015-16 CBB Regular Season

#3 2015-16 CBB Postseason

#8 2015-16 NBA Postseason

#5 2016-17 CFB Bowl Season

#3 2017 CFL Regular Season

#3 2017-18 NFL Postseason

#3 2017-18 CFB Regular Season

#9 2017-18 NBA Postseason

#9 2017-18 CBB Regular Season

#1 2018 CFL Regular Season

#5 2018-19 NFL Postseason

#5 2018-19 NCAAB Postseason

#3 2018 MLB Regular Season

#2 2017-18 NHL Regular Season

#3 2018-19 NHL Regular Season

#2 2019 CFL Regular Season

Rating Scale

A play’s rating will be displayed in each title and ranges anywhere from 7* to 10* for Premium Plays, and 1* for Free Plays.  10* status is considered your top bet amount. 9* are 90% of your top bet and so on.

Enforcer — this is the “Signature Play” for Matt.  It is always backed with a 10* Rating and is typically one of his strongest plays of the day.

Supreme Annihilator — this is typically a favorite (or pick ‘em) which Matt feels has the opportunity to destroy the line.

Ultimate Underdog — this is an underdog which is being faded for the wrong reasons and usually has a chance to win a game outright.

Star Attraction — this is a game on national television to provide a great watch-and-win opportunity.

Quote:  "This is not an easy business and anyone who tells you different clearly does not put in the time or hard work that I do.  In order to be successful, it takes patience, dedication and an overall willingness to be the best.  We all go through good and bad runs but it is consistency that counts when it comes to handicapping."

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NBA - Point Spread - Sun, Apr 06

Fargo's NonConf. Game of the Month (52-36-1)

MASSIVE Sunday is ready! Fargo is coming off a Mavericks loss in the NBA, 3-3 overall, and he is back in action on th...

$30

NCAAB - Point Spread - Sun, Apr 06

Fargo's Crown Tournament Annihilator

While the NCAA Tournament is in the spotlight, the College Basketball Crown Championship comes first on Sunday and Ma...

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NCAAB - Point Spread - Mon, Apr 07

Fargo's NCAA Championship Ultimate Dominator

The NCAA Championship is ready to roll on Monday and Fargo has your bases covered for an EPIC finish to the season. H...

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Valero Texas Open Preview and Best Bets

Tuesday, Apr 01, 2025

Min Woo Lee held off Sunday back nine charges from Scottie Scheffler and Gary Woodland to capture his first PGA Tour title with a one shot win at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. San Antonio will be abuzz this weekend with the PGA Tour in town along with the city hosting the Final Four and even the Cleveland Cavalier make an appearance on Friday. The tour remains in the Lone Star State for the Valero Texas Open hosted by the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio, the third longest running event on tour, and while it has always been in the River City area, TPC San Antonio has held the event every year since 2010. TPC San Antonio is a par 72, 7,438-yard layout that sits 1,100 feet above elevation which reduces some of the distance because of the thinner air. Even though this is one of the longer courses on tour, ranked No. 20 in distance, accuracy is ideally more important and because of the dry firm conditions, there will be plenty of roll with accurate players keeping it in the fairway whereas errant tee shots will gather outside the heavily tree-lined fairways and native areas. It is flat, the rough is short and non-penal and there are only three water hazards across the property yet it is typically ranked in the top ten in difficulty and there is one good reason for that, the good ole’ Texas wind. Trying to defend his 2024 win is Akshay Bhatia, who picked up his second career PGA Tour win in a playoff over Denny McCarthy. He maintained a six-shot lead with nine holes remaining but McCarthy birdied his final seven holes to force the playoff which Bhatia won on the first hole. The last back-to-back winner was Zach Johnson in 2008-2009 and Bhatia will have a tough time defending against a talented field. Eight players ranked in the OWGR Top 25 are teeing it up and the field is strewn with others looking to win to gain a spot in The Masters next week. Ludvig Aberg (12/1), Tommy Fleetwood (14/1), Corey Conners (18/1), Patrick Cantlay (20/1) and Hideki Matsuyama (20/1) are the chalky favorites this week. Accuracy off the tee is more important than distance so Stroke Gained: Off-The-Tee is where to look but on a secondary level as straight and long are both obviously beneficial but having one and not the other is not a liability. Hitting greens here is tough and well below the tour average which makes the short game very important, similar to last week at Memorial Park. TPC San Antonio has 64 bunkers so in addition to looking at Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green and Scrambling, we also have to look at Sand Saves Gained. Putting is ranked down this week on the greens that typically run slow, rolling at an average of 11 on the Stimpmeter. There have been weather issues each of the last three weeks, leading to a Monday playoff at THE PLAYERS Championship, a Thursday/Friday wind wave at the Valspar Championship and heavy rain and storms leading to delays and ball in hand for the first three days in Houston. The biggest threat of rain in the forecast is overnight Friday into Saturday so precipitation looks clean. The wind will be lurking as usual but should not make a big impact with the worst of it coming Saturday night into Sunday morning. Thursday will be relatively calm and after that, gusts will not be constant and top out around 20-23 mph Friday-Sunday so this looks to be the first time in a month we need not be weather concerned. Top four key categories this week in order: Strokes Gained: ApproachStrokes Gained: Around The GreenSand Saves GainedStrokes Gained: Off-The-Tee Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Jordan SpiethOdds: Win 2,000 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 210Payout: Win 10,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,000.00 ~ Top Ten 525.00 Spieth has been inconsistent in most areas but has shown flashes in all SG categories. He has not won since 2022 when he was +0.99 in SG: Total and in six starts this year, he is +0.90 so he is close. In his last start at the Valspar Championship, he finished T28 where his iron game was dialed in as he was +1.96 in SG: Approach and his issue was surprisingly with the driver as he was -0.32 in SG: Off-The-Tee, only the third time in his last 23 starts he has been (-) in that category. He has a T4 and a T9 this year and in both events, his putter was on fire and that will not be needed here as his other strengths can get him over the top. Daniel BergerOdds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 280Payout: Win 15,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,500.00 ~ Top Ten 700.00 It has been a long, hard comeback for Berger. After missing the latter half of 2022 and all of 2023, most of 2024 was a struggle but he regained his form in the Fall Swing with a T2 and a T7. After missing the cut in two of his first three starts this season, he has five straight top 25s including a T2 at the WM Phoenix Open. He is (+) in all SG categories and he is No. 3 of 12 players in the field that are ranked inside the top 40 in SG: Around-The-Green, Scrambling and Sand Saves Gained so his short game is fine tuned. He is No. 20 in SG: Approach and has moved up to No. 37 in SG: Off-The-Tee while his putting has trended up after almost every event. Bud CauleyOdds: Win 4,500 ~ Top Five 850 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 22,500.00 ~ Top Five 2,125.00 ~ Top Ten 1,000.00 Cauley has not won in a decade but he is now fully healthy after recovering from a car accident that cost him all but one event from 2021-2023. Last year was a struggle obviously and while it has only been six starts this year, his +1.30 SG: Total is the best of his career and he is in great form with a T6 at THE PLAYERS Championship and a T4 at the Valspar Championship. Only seven players in the field are ranked in the top 40 in SG: Approach, SG: Around-The-Green, Fairways Gained and Bogey Avoidance and he is one of them while sitting in the top 10 in SG: Approach. Not to mention, he is No. 37 in SG: Off-The-Tee so his overall game puts him in great position. Lee HodgesOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 1,000 ~ Top Ten 500Payout: Win 30,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,500.00 ~ Top Ten 1,250.00 Hodges closed last season with a T8, T16 and T5 in three of his last four starts and started this season with a T10 at the Sony open and a T9 at the Farmers but he sustained a rib injury that affected him in his next two starts. He had to take six weeks off but he came back last week to finish T11 in Houston so he has not missed a beat. He was one of the worst putters last year and was (-) in SG: Putting in 11 of his last 12 starts but is (+) in five of six this season which is a bonus to go along with his elite ball striking where he has been (+) in SG: Approach in 11 of his last 12 starts and is No. 9 in the field in that category and has been (+) SG: Off-The-Tee in all six starts. Alex SmalleyOdds: Win 7,000 ~ Top Five 1,100 ~ Top Ten 500Payout: Win 35,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,750.00 ~ Top Ten 1,250.00 We ran with Smalley last week and he missed the cut at TPC San Antonio by one shot, his second MC in as many weeks but we are going with him again in a buy low spot as his odds have gone up considerably. This came after four straight T21 or better finishes so we are not jumping off just yet. He was (-) in SG: Approach in those last two events which could not make up for spectacular driving and that has been his go to since last July. Like Berger, his short game is spot on as he is No. 10 of 12 players in the field that are ranked inside the top 40 in SG: Around-The-Green, Scrambling and Sand Saves Gained. He had a MC here last year but was coming off six straight MCs. Results through Texas Children's Houston Open (9 Tournaments): Win: -1,500Top Five: -3,375Top Ten: -775

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Texas Children's Houston Open Preview and Picks

Tuesday, Mar 25, 2025

Viktor Hovland had missed three straight cuts but he was able to find his putter to win the Valspar Championship by one shot over Justin Thomas, his first PGA Tour win since the 2023 TOUR Championship. His +1.83 SG: Putting was his highest of any career PGA Tour event so it was lightning in a bottle to get the victory at 80/1 odds. The Florida swing concluded and the PGA Tour heads to Houston for the Texas Children's Houston Open from Memorial Park Golf Course. This will be the fifth straight year (no event in 2023) that it has played host and is a par 71, playing to 7,412 yards that tends to play even longer. Unlike the last two events that demanded elite ball striking, Memorial Park challenges the short game. Before being the current stop, Memorial Park went through a massive renovation in 2019. It is considered one of the top municipal courses in the country with over 60,000 rounds played annually so it was a challenge to set up to make it playable for the public and yet to challenge the tour pros. It was not overly lengthened while 34 bunkers were removed bringing it down from 54 to 20. A lot of the greenside bunkers that were taken out are now undulating slopes where players need to be imaginative to get up and down. The Bermuda greens are big and sloped with a lot of crowns so putting is a challenge as well. The top two key factors this week are SG: Around The Green and SG: Putting (Bermuda). Stephan Jaeger is the defending champion as he won by one shot over five players for his first PGA Tour win. It looked like a playoff was inevitable but Scottie Scheffler missed a five-foot putt on the 72nd hole to give Jaeger the victory. He will look to become only the second player to defend the title as Vijay Singh won back-to-back in 2004 and 2005 while also becoming just the second three-time champion along with Curtis Strange. There is another fairly strong field on hand highlighted by Scheffler (4/1) and Rory McIlroy (7/1) and in total, 11 of the top 30 in the OWGR will be competing. It is a big odds drop off after those two with Aaron Rai, Wyndham Clark, J.J. Spaun and Tony Finau all next closest at 30/1. When you think of Texas weather in the spring, wind is the first thing that comes to mind and there will be plenty of it all four days but nothing like we have seen the last two weeks. Rain is predicted all four days as well but again, nothing that will be overly problematic to really affect play or cause delays unless we see some pop up thunderstorms which are always in play. The Thursday AM/Friday PM wave did have the edge last week as predicted but both waves this week should be on equal ground with no advantages either way. Top four key categories this week in order: Strokes Gained: Around The GreenStrokes Gained: PuttingStrokes Gained: ApproachBogey Avoidance Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Jason DayOdds: Win 3,500 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 300Payout: Win 17,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,500.00 ~ Top Ten 750.00 Day is coming off a WD at THE PLAYERS Championship which was due to illness and not injury. He is positive in all SG categories with SG: Off-The-Tee being the lowest at +0.14 but that is not such a huge category here. He is No. 66 in SG: Around-The-Green which is above average albeit not great but he is trending the right way with his putter as he was +1.61 in SG: Putting at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, his best of the season which resulted in a T8. He did not make the cut last year but had a T7 and a T16 in two of the previous three editions. Min Woo LeeOdds: Win 3,500 ~ Top Five 650 ~ Top Ten 300Payout: Win 17,500.00 ~ Top Five 1,625.00 ~ Top Ten 750.00 Min Woo was right there at THE PLAYERS Championship as he entered Saturday with a share of the lead but stumbled with a Saturday 78 and he ended up T20. That was his fourth T20 of the season in six starts and his lone MC was at The Arnold Palmer Invitational where he was -3.35 in SG: Approach, his second worst in his career PGA Tour starts, the 2023 Masters only being worse. He is No. 9 in SG: Around-The-Green and No. 15 in SG: Putting making him perfect for this course so it is not a concern that this is his first start here. Alex SmalleyOdds: Win 5,500 ~ Top Five 900 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 27,500.00 ~ Top Five 2,250.00 ~ Top Ten 1,000.00 Smalley is coming off a MC at the Valspar Championship, his second of the season, but when he makes the weekend, he has been at the top of the leaderboard. He has finished T21 or better in six made starts and while his best finish is a T10, his game fits here. He was -SG: Around-The-Green for the first time this season and he is ranked No. 5 overall in that category. His putter has been solid as well as he is No. 41 in SG: Putting so his short game is in fine form. While he missed the cut here last year, he has a T4 in 2022 and a T15 in 2021. Max GreysermanOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 1,000 ~ Top Ten 450Payout: Win 30,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,500.00 ~ Top Ten 1,125.00 We last used Greyserman at the Farmers Insurance Open and while it resulted in a T48, he had nothing going after a letdown from The American Express the previous week. He is coming off a MC in his last start at THE PLAYERS Championship but had three consecutive T25s prior to that and his -3.40 SG: Approach at TPC Sawgrass was by far the worst of his career. His game fits here as his putting and around the green games are back on track and he finished only two shots back in Houston last year, good for a T7. Results through The Valspar Championship (8 Tournaments): Win: -18,000Top Five: -3,255Top Ten: -225

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The Valspar Championship Preview and Picks

Wednesday, Mar 19, 2025

THE PLAYERS Championship is in the books with Rory McIlroy winning in an anticlimactic three-hole aggregate playoff on Monday over J.J. Spaun. He became the eighth player to win twice at TPC Sawgrass and it has been a great start to the season for McIlroy who also won at Pebble Beach giving him some momentum in quest of a Major championship that has eluded him since the 2014 PGA Championship. The PGA Tour remains in Florida and heads to Palm Harbor for the Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course. This will be the 24th year of the Valspar that debuted in 2000 at Copperhead which is a par 71 that stretches 7,352 yards and like last week, it demands elite ball striking. This is another positional course with narrow, tree-lined fairways which tends to yield below average driving accuracy and driving distance rankings. It once again makes Strokes Gained: Approach the top key stat this week along with SG: Around The Green and SG: Putting (Bermuda) right in the mix so it is nearly a duplicate of TPC Sawgrass in regard to what it takes to succeed. With five par threes that average 221 yards, Par 3s Gained: 200-225 Yards is also a key metric as to not lose ground on those holes. The three closing holes at Copperhead are among the toughest three-hole stretches on tour and the Snake Pit moniker is apropos as going even par on 16, 17 and 18 is rare. Peter Malnati is the defending champion and an unlikely one as he went off at 300/1, the biggest underdog since 2014. Only four players have won here two times, most recently Sam Burns in 2021 and 2022 and he joined Paul Casey as the only players to defend after Casey did it in 2018 and 2019. Despite coming off THE PLAYERS and The Arnold Palmer Invitational the week before, the field is fairly strong which is usually the case here and 13 of the 25 players in the OWGR are teeing it up this week. The favorites under 30/1 are Tommy Fleetwood (11/1), Xander Schauffele (12/1), Sepp Straka (16/1), Justin Thomas (20/1), Tom Kim (22/1) and Sam Burns (22/1). The weather messed around last week with windy conditions off and on and storms forcing a Monday finish and while the forecast looks dry this week, wind looks to play a major role on Thursday and Friday, namely Thursday afternoon and Friday morning where gusts will hit 30 mph. The Thursday AM/Friday PM draw looks to have a significant edge and those are the players we will target to avoid those gusty conditions. Top four key categories this week: Strokes Gained: ApproachStrokes Gained: Around The GreenStrokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)Par 3s Gained: 200-225 Yards Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Sam BurnsOdds: Win 2,200 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 210Payout: Win 11,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,000.00 ~ Top Ten 520.50 It has been an erratic start for Burns and he actually has been trending down, missing his first cut of the season last week but if there is a place to pick up his game, this is it. He has back-to-back wins here in 2021 and 2022 to go along with a T6 over his last four starts at the Valspar. His iron game has been abysmal this season, notably the last two starts, so we are going against the top key statistic but the course fit trumps that this week. He has been great off the tee and on the greens so get that SG: Approach back to where it was at the end of last year and he could be hoisting his third trophy here. Michael KimOdds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 500 ~ Top Ten 250Payout: Win 15,000.00 ~ Top Five 1,250.00 ~ Top Ten 620.50 Kim was a popular play last week in the betting and DFS markets but he missed the cut albeit by just one stroke so it was not a disaster. He was on fire prior to that as he finished T13 or better in his previous five starts including a T2, a solo fourth and a T6 and it was due to his SG: Approach and SG: Around The Green numbers. He was fine in those categories last week at TPC Sawgrass but he was -0.91 in SG: Off The Tee and that was an aberration as he was +SG in six of his first eight starts in that category. He came to the Valspar last year missing the cut in four of his previous five starts and finished a respectable T33. Stephan JaegerOdds: Win 4,400 ~ Top Five 800 ~ Top Ten 360Payout: Win 22,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,000.00 ~ Top Ten 900.00 Jaeger has missed two cuts this year which happened to be the only two starts where he as -SG: Approach. When his irons are on, he contends as when he has gained one or more strokes on approach, he has finishes of T6, T3 and T20, the latter coming last week at THE PLAYERS where he was in the top ten after the first and third rounds but a Sunday 75 did him in. He was not able to get off the tee as his irons were spot on and he can prosper at this point. He missed the cut in his first start here but finished T27 in 2023 where he was +SG in everything but putting. That was his issue in 2023 and early 2024 but he has completely turned that around. Jacob BridgemanOdds: Win 5,000 ~ Top Five 850 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 25,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,125.00 ~ Top Ten 1,000.00 Hardly a household name, Bridgeman is putting together a solid season after a slow start. He missed the cut in three of his first four starts with a T21 at The American Express being the outlier where his putter was on fire. His iron play was dreadful in all four of those starts but he has flipped that as he has been +SG: Approach in his last four starts and it has turned into making the weekend in all four including a T2 at the Cognizant Classic and a T15 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His putting remains above average and he is No. 14 in Strokes Gained: Total and while he missed the cut here last year, he was not in the same form. Christiaan BezuidenhoutOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 900 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 30,000.00 ~ Top Five 2,250.00 ~ Top Ten 1,000.00 Bezuidenhout missed the cut at THE PLAYERS as he had his worst putting performance since the 2023 PGA Championship and last week was a total anomaly as he had been +Strokes Gained: Putting in his previous 13 starts. He is a master short game player as he is No. 11 in Strokes Gained: Around the Green to go along with a No. 9 in putting and No. 6 in scrambling. The concern is his iron game as he has been -SG: Approach in six of his eight starts but this should come around at some time as he is normally above average. His T9 here last year with a positive approach game can bring that confidence back. Results through THE PLAYERS Championship (7 Tournaments): Win: -15,500Top Five: -4,375Top Ten: -225

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THE PLAYERS Championship Preview and Picks

Tuesday, Mar 11, 2025

The PGA Tour remains in the Sunshine State this week for THE PLAYERS Championship taking place from TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The event has been played since 1974 and has been held at TPC Sawgrass since 1982 with the only year not played was the COVID year of 2020. The course is a par 72 at 7,352-yards, an increase of 75 yards from last year. While not considered a target course, it is a positional course as precision is a priority with water in play on 12 holes, including all three finishing holes, and 92 bunkers are spread throughout. Those final three holes have won or lost many tournaments. We saw the first back-to-back winner last year with Scottie Scheffler who won by one shot over a trio of runner-ups to erase a five-shot deficit going into the final round with a Sunday 64. He joined six other players as two-time winners, the first since 2013 when Tiger Woods captured his second victory, and Scheffler will be looking to join Jack Nicklaus the only three-time champion. Woods is the most notable absence this week and the field is stacked as usual with 48 of the top 50 players in the world competing, Tyrrell Hatton and Bryson DeChambeau the lone absentees from that list. While pivotal most weeks, driving distance is always a good attribute to have but this is not a course that gives bombers a huge advantage, of course with the exception of the par fives that average 554 yards. Ball strikers have the most success here which should come as no surprise based on the hazards and the small and well-defended greens being hit into. Of the last 12 winners, 10 finished inside the top ten in Strokes Gained: Approach to provide better birdie opportunities with only 2018 champion Webb Simpson giving back to the field and 2017 champion Si Woo Kim at +4.1 (16th). This also correlates to Three Putt Avoidance which is important all the time but even more so on these fast Bermuda greens. From a results standpoint, THE PLAYERS recent champions have a lot in common. Course fit and experience at TPC Sawgrass are important which is the case with most tournaments held at the same course and here, 15 of the last 16 winners have had at least one finish inside the top 25 in prior starts with the one exception being Scheffler of all players when he won in 2023. Current playing form is just as important as of the last eight winners, six have finished T21 or better in their last tour event, the two exceptions being Cam Young in 2022 when he finished T33 at The Genesis Invitational and Si Woo Kim in 2017 after missing the cut at the Zurich Classic. We are now relying heavily on this but more of looking at the last five events. Weather in March cannot be ignored and it looks to be really good from Thursday through Saturday with a chance of rain and higher winds on Sunday. With Thursday/Friday looking ideal, we are not concerned about morning/afternoon waves. Top three key categories this week: Strokes Gained: ApproachStrokes Gained: Around The GreenThree Putt Avoidance Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Ludvig AbergOdds: Win 1,600 ~ Top Five 330 ~ Top Ten 175Payout: Win 800.00 ~ Top Five 82.50 ~ Top Ten 43.75 Aberg is a premier ball striker and since the 2023 BMW PGA when his first 50-Round moving average was calculated at 0.00, he has been trending up ever since. In his last 25 starts, he is +SG in 21 of those and his one big disaster was at Pebble Beach where he was -4.41 SG but he was fighting a bug and had to WD. He opened 2025 with a T5 at The Sentry and he went downward because of the illness and came back to win The Genesis. A poor Saturday hurt him at the API last week but still managed a T22. He has made one start at THE PLAYERS and he finished solo eighth so no experience mattered to him. His ball striking will be there and when he is +SG: Putting, he has 11 top 12s in those last 25 starts. Justin ThomasOdds: Win 2,200 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 210Payout: Win 1,100.00 ~ Top Five 100.00 ~ Top Ten 52.50 Thomas is a past winner at THE PLAYERS back in 2021 and while he has trended down since then here, his game was trending down everywhere he played. He has missed the cut only once in nine starts here so he has the experience and course fit. He seems to be back at the top of his game and over the last 36 rounds, he is No. 1 in SG: Approach and over his last 12 starts, he has been +SG. He is also No. 5 in SG: Around The Green and over those 12 starts, he is +SG in 10 of those. This has resulted in six top 15s including three top fives. He is up and down with the putter and if he gets that going this week, his first victory since 2022 is in play. Hideki MatsuyamaOdds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 550 ~ Top Ten 260Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 137.50 ~ Top Ten 65.00 Matsuyama is another elite ball striker as he has been +SG: Approach in 12 of his last 14 starts and he has been just as good around the green, being +SG: Around The Green in 12 of 14 starts as well. His issues have always been with the putter as he has been -SG every year from 2020-2024 but he is +0.40 this year. His best putting performance of the season of +1.51 was at his win at The Sentry. Even though he has not won here, he is ranked No. 1 in the field in Course History as he has four top tens in nine starts and of the seven he has made the cut, he has finished no lower than T22. Also, he opened the 2020 event with a 63 before it was cancelled due to COVID. Shane LowryOdds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 700 ~ Top Ten 330Payout: Win 2,000.00 ~ Top Five 175.00 ~ Top Ten 82.50 We love what we saw from Lowry in the first two rounds last week at The Arnold Palmer Invitational but a rough Saturday knocked him out of contention yet he still finished solo seventh. His iron play let him down over the weekend which was a surprise as he is No. 15 in SG: Approach and in his last 25 starts, he has been -SG only four times. He has not been as sharp in SG: Around The Green but has still been +SG in 13 of those starts. He finished solo second at Pebble Beach thanks to positive SG everywhere including +1.60 in Putting which can be his downfall similar to others in this mix. In his last four starts at THE PLAYERS, he has three top 20s including a solo eighth. Sepp StrakaOdds: Win 5,000 ~ Top Five 850 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 2,500.00 ~ Top Five 212.50 ~ Top Ten 100.00 Even though we think Straka should be popular this week, the odds are not reflecting that mainly because he is not a household name to the common bettor. He has a win at The American Express and is the leader in FedEx Cup Points thanks to missing only one cut in eight starts while having seven top 15s including a T5 last week at The Arnold Palmer Invitational. He had his worst approach game by far at The Genesis where he missed the cut and it was only the fourth time in his last 25 starts he has been -SG. He is +SG: Around The Green in 2025 for the first time in seven years and he has a T9 and T16 in two of the last three years at THE PLAYERS. Joel DahmenOdds: Win 15,000 ~ Top Five 2,200 ~ Top Ten 1,000Payout: Win 7,500.00 ~ Top Five 550.00 ~ Top Ten 250.00 This is the flyer play but we take the shot on another elite ball striker who is also very accurate off the tee. Dahmen has been +SG in both approach and off the tee in his last five starts, which has been the case in his last eight full years, and while he missed the cut in two of those recent starts, it was because of his poor play around the greens and if that can improve, history shows it does at TPC Sawgrass, he can easily be in the mix. He has missed the cut at THE PLAYERS only once in five starts where he was elite tee to green but was -2.53 in SG: Putting and he does have a T11 and T12 in those four trips to the weekend and now we catch him in excellent form. Results through The Arnold Palmer Invitational (6 Tournaments): Win: -12,500Top Five: -3,875Top Ten: +725

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Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Wednesday, Mar 05, 2025

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Justin ThomasOdds: Win 2,500 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 190Payout: Win 1,250.00 ~ Top Five 100.00 ~ Top Ten 47.50 After some big time struggles right around this time last year, Thomas is trending the right way. He has five top tens over his last seven starts including a pair of runner-ups and a solo third. He is seventh in SG: Total this year which is important on this course where he finished T21 two years ago and T12 last year as an average weekend of 72-73 knocked him out of contention. He comes in No. 4 in the metrics model making this a buy low spot. Patrick CantlayOdds: Win 2,500 ~ Top Five 450 ~ Top Ten 200Payout: Win 1,250.00 ~ Top Five 112.50 ~ Top Ten 50.00 Cantlay is another player that is overdue for a win as he has not won since 2022. He has two T5 finishes in his last three starts and has finished outside the top 25 only once in his last 11 starts after breaking out of a downward trend in April-June of last season. He finished T4 here in 2023 and this is a setup that suits him well as the Memorial is a correlating event in which he is a two-time winner as well as the Valspar where he went T2. Wyndham ClarkOdds: Win 5,000 ~ Top Five 800 ~ Top Ten 360Payout: Win 2,500.00 ~ Top Five 200.00 ~ Top Ten 90.00 Clark has not been at the top of his game but this is another buy low spot. He has three top 17 finishes since December over six starts and while he has not cracked the top ten, this is a better environment for him. Last season, he posted four top-seven finishes between the Arnold Palmer, THE PLAYERS, RBC Heritage, and FedEx St. Jude Championship and that included a solo second here last year. Another correlating event is the Wells Fargo which we won in 2023. Sahith TheegalaOdds: Win 8,000 ~ Top Five 1,200 ~ Top Ten 500 It has been a slow start for Theegala but he is coming off his best finish in 2025 with a T17 at The Genesis and this is a place he has steadily improved at. He missed the cut in his first start here and followed that up with a T14 in 2023 and a T6 last year. He checks the boxes being able to capitalize at long and challenging courses and he is ranked in the top 25 in Scrambling and SG: Putting (Bermuda). He has top sevens at correlating events at The Memorial and The Valspar. Results through The Genesis Invitational (5 Tournaments): Win: -10,500Top Five: -2,875Top Ten: +1,725

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Genesis Invitational Picks

Wednesday, Feb 12, 2025

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Colin MorikawaOdds: Win 1,600 ~ Top Five 260 ~ Top Ten 125Payout: Win 800.00 ~ Top Five 65.00 ~ Top Ten 31.25 Morikawa will be our chalk this week going against Scheffler who is the huge favorite again after making a run early on Sunday last week. Morikawa has made two starts and it has been good with a solo second at The Sentry and a T17 at Pebble Beach. Over his last 18 starts, he has finished outside T28 only once that includes eight top 10s and his game is ideal here. At Torrey, he had a T21 in his 2020 debut and followed it up with a T4 at the U.S. Open in 2021 and a solo third at The Farmers in 2023. Tommy FleetwoodOdds: Win 3,500 ~ Top Five 550 ~ Top Ten 250Payout: Win 1,750.00 ~ Top Five 137.50 ~ Top Ten 62.50 Fleetwood has to win on the PGA Tour at some point and why not here where his metrics fit well. Because of his limited rounds, we have to look back at last season where he was No 11 in Driving Accuracy and No. 7 on both Total Driving and Scrambling. Most importantly here this week, over his last 24 rounds, he is No. 12 in SG: Off-The-Tee and No. 8 in SG: Approach. He was not good here at the U.S. Open in 2021 with a T50 but was coming in with awful form with three missed cuts in five stroke play events. Taylor PendrithOdds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 275Payout: Win 2,000.00 ~ Top Five 150.00 ~ Top Ten 68.75 We cannot go away from Pendrith who quietly competes each week. He has six top 15s in his last seven starts and five top 10s in his last 10 starts which includes a T7 at The Farmers at Torrey. Going back further, he has missed one cut in his last 20 starts which goes back to last April and included are more top end finishes culminated with a win at the THE CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He is No. 5 in SG: Tee-To-Green and No. 10 in SG: Approach-The-Green with the latter being No. 3 in the field. Will ZalatorisOdds: Win 4,500 ~ Top Five 750 ~ Top Ten 320Payout: Win 2,250.00 ~ Top Five 187.50 ~ Top Ten 80.00 With this event being switched to Torrey, it will not be a birdie fest and that benefits Zalatoris who is No. 168 in Putting Inside 10 Feet. He counters that with his No. 22 ranking in SG: Tee-To-Green and this course he can take over. We had him at The Farmers where the setup would not have been as difficult but we did not get to see him as he WD before the start and we are not concerned about weather or a more difficult trip this time especially with his odds and a field cut by more than in half. Results through the WM Phoenix Open (4 Tournaments): Win: -8,500Top Five: -4,250Top Ten: +1,100

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Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview and Picks

Wednesday, Feb 05, 2025

The PGA Tour will officially begin its season this week in the eyes of many as following a pair of destination events in Hawaii and then three straight tournaments with course rotations that also included a pair of pro-am’s, we finally have stability with a full arsenal of data and legitimate course history. While we are coming off a signature event at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am and with another signature event on deck at The Genesis Invitational, this would normally set up to be a lull in the schedule but not at TPC Scottsdale.The Greatest Show on Grass is the perfect middle stop in-between the signature events and in its usual spot on the schedule during Super Bowl week. The Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale has been a fan favorite for years and annually is the most attended event on tour, surpassing 700,000 spectators (they are not called patrons here) each year. Highlighted by The Colosseum, the par three No. 16 hole that accommodates 20,000 fans, this is the ultimate week long Darty.TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course is a 7,261-yard par 71 featuring two-inch fairway rough, 67 bunkers, six holes with water hazards, firm TifEagle Bermudagrass green complexes with Poa Overseed, making this a classic dessert course all around. Scoring is low but this is not a birdie-fest as the winning score was between -16 and -19 from 2017 through 2023 until Nick Taylor and Charley Hoffman went to a playoff last year after finishing -21, eventually won by Taylor on the second playoff hole.Sandwiched around the two signature events hurts the field but there are still plenty of big names and intriguing storylines. Five of the top 15 in the OWGR will be teeing it up, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Wyndham Clark, Justin Thomas, and Sahith Theegala, while players that have played well to start the season, Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Tom Kim and Sepp Straka will also help headline along with past winners Taylor, Rickie Fowler and Gary Woodland.Course fit and history is important to succeed here as TPC Scottsdale is No. 3 on tour in terms of projecting future success, behind only Augusta National and Waialae CC. Last year was the perfect example with Taylor winning after finishing second in 2023 and we can expect contenders this year having had prior experience and success here. A correlation for the players that do well here is THE PLAYERS Championship as four of the top 10 in course history have won at TPC Sawgrass.Another connection in addition to success at TPC Sawgrass is doing well in Majors as nine of the last 11 winners at the WM Phoenix Open have also won either THE PLAYERS or a major championship and that tells us exactly what it takes. It is not one or two strengths that get it done but an all-around complete game that highlights Ball Striking and factors in Scrambling. As mentioned, it is not a birdie fest so hitting greens in regulation is pivotal and while SG: Putting is important everywhere, it is not a top key stat.Top three key categories this week:Strokes Gained: Ball StrikingScramblingPar 4s Gained: 450-500 YardsEach bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:Sam BurnsOdds: Win 2,500 ~ Top Five 400 ~ Top Ten 210Payout: Win 1,250.00 ~ Top Five 100.00 ~ Top Ten 52.50Burns is off to a solid start this season with a T8 at The Sentry, T29 at the AMEX and a T22 at Pebble Beach which could have gone a lot better but his putter went ice cold on Sunday. He has contended with some elite fields throughout his career and while this one is not totally elite, there are big names and he has had success here of late with a T6 in 2023 and a T3 last year. He can be had for +2,000 in the Without Winner market.Sahith TheegalaOdds: Win 4,000 ~ Top Five 700 ~ Top Ten 330Payout: Win 2,000.00 ~ Top Five 175.00 ~ Top Ten 82.50Conversely, Theegala has not started the season well as a T36 at The Sentry is his best finish through four starts while going the wrong way after each finish but he has not missed a cut and he will be fine coming off a solid fall and he has made the weekend in his last 11 starts. His course fit makes him live here as he was runner-up in 2022 and finished solo fifth last year. The poor results put him in a great buy low spot.Billy HorschelOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 900 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 3,000.00 ~ Top Five 225.00 ~ Top Ten 100.00Horschel is trending the right way as after a MC at The Sony, he finished T21 at The AMEX and then a Sunday 66 propelled him to a T9 at Pebble Beach. He has been a mainstay here with 12 straight starts, making the cut 11 times including a pair of top ten finishes. He called out the crowds last year so he might get some negative reactions but if there is anyone that feeds off that, he is the one.Maverick McNealyOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 900 ~ Top Ten 400Payout: Win 3,000.00 ~ Top Five 225.00 ~ Top Ten 100.00We had McNealy last week and he was a big disappointment as he finished No. 7 in SG: Tee-To-Green and he could have fared better if not for a bad week with the putter as he was fifth to last in SG: Putting. That was an anomaly as he has finished positive SG: Putting the last five years and even an average week is fine here. If he hits the ball like he did at Pebble Beach, he can make a run similar to last year as he finished T6.Rickie FowlerOdds: Win 7,000 ~ Top Five 1,100 ~ Top Ten 500Payout: Win 3,500.00 ~ Top Five 275.00 ~ Top Ten 125.00Fowler has our deepest odds this week and he is another buy low candidate with great course history. He is coming off a disappointing T53 at Pebble Beach last week which was just his second start after a T21 at the AMEX. He was average across the board last week but now he hits a place he loves. He won here in 2019, going into Sunday with a four shot lead and he also has a pair of runner-ups and a T10 two years ago.Results through the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am (3 Tournaments):Win: -6,500Top Five: -3,250Top Ten: +600

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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview and Picks

Tuesday, Jan 28, 2025

This week marks the first signature event of the season with the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am taking place on the Monterey Peninsula, two hours north of San Francisco. Weather can be an issue this time of year and we saw that last season when the event was shortened to 54 holes with Wyndham Clark winning by one shot over Ludvig Åberg after shooting a course record 60 in the third and ultimately final round. The weather looks to be a non-issue this year with average temperatures and a slight chance of rain over the weekend with typical moderate winds. Gone are the three long and laborious pro-am rounds over three different courses from Thursday through Saturday as now being a signature event, the field has been shortened to 80 players with no cut. Players will alternate between Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill on Thursday and Friday during the pro-am portion and finish with both rounds at Pebble Beach over the weekend with just the professionals playing and it will be that course data we will rely on considering there has been no Shot Link data from Spyglass. With many courses getting longer, Pebble Beach is one of the outliers being one of the shortest on tour at 6,972 yards but that does not make it easy. Driving distance can be an advantage but that can bring inaccuracy into play and that is a problem here. Thus, use of the driver is scaled back and last year, driving distance averaged 277 yards with the tour average being 293 yards and that led to more greens being hit, 72 percent with the tour average being 66 percent. The average green size at Pebble is 3,580 square feet, making the greens the smallest on the PGA Tour so keeping the ball in the fairway for easier approaches is essential. Because the greens are so small, there are still plenty of missed putting surfaces so getting the ball up and down is another key to success. With recent history of playing only two of four rounds at Pebble Beach, only half of the rounds are factored into the Strokes Gained metrics so while course history is important, looking at outside stats are just as big, especially correlating events, with the top two being the RSM Classic at Sea Island Resort and the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town. As far as course history, knowing the lay of the land is vital just like most everywhere and past winners here need to have not only experience but successful experience as the last two decades plus of winners have made the cut at least once prior to their win. From a statistical standpoint, it is pretty straight forward with our top three key categories being: Strokes Gained: Off The TeeStrokes Gained: ApproachStrokes Gained: Around The Green Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following players. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Patrick CantlayOdds: Win 1,800 ~ Top Five 350 ~ Top Ten 160Payout: Win 900.00 ~ Top Five 87.50 ~ Top Ten 40.00 Cantlay came into this tournament last season with similar odds yet was off to a poor start with finishes of T12, T52 and T56. It has been much better in 2025 as he was T15 at The Sentry and T5 at The AMEX so he comes in with much better form and he fits here. He did not start in 2023 and has gone T11 in 2020, T3 in 2021, T4 in 2022 and T11 in 2024 and over his last 21 starts, he has 14 percent top five and 24 percent top ten percentages. He has also been great at the correlating RBS Heritage with four third place finishes and a second. Jason DayOdds: Win 3,500 ~ Top Five 550 ~ Top Ten 260Payout: Win 1,750.00 ~ Top Five 275.00 ~ Top Ten 65.00 Day has arguably the best course history without a win as he is 14-14 here while finishing in the top seven nine times and now that it is no cut for a second straight year, his chances are better and despite worse odds due to the shortened field, there is still value. Similar to Cantlay, he came into last year in not great form with a T10, T34 and MC and finished T6. He opened this year with a T40 at The Sentry but came back with a T3 at The AMEX and he was -3 after 54 holes at The Farmers but a closing 76 knocked him down to T32. Taylor PendrithOdds: Win 5,000 ~ Top Five 800 ~ Top Ten 360Payout: Win 2,500.00 ~ Top Five 200.00 ~ Top Ten 90.00 Pendrith came through for a T7 at The Farmers last week so he continues to play exceptional. He is in the midst of the best run of his career as following a cut at the PGA Championship last May, he has made the weekend in 14 consecutive starts including 11 top 25s and finishing top ten four times with a pair of top fives. Before this run, he won at the Byron Nelson which was sandwiched between a T10 and two T11s. He was T49 here in 2022 and followed that up with a T7 in 2023 prior to not qualifying last season. Maverick McNealyOdds: Win 5,000 ~ Top Five 850 ~ Top Ten 360Payout: Win 1,100.00 ~ Top Five 212.50 ~ Top Ten 90.00 McNealy is on a downward trend going T8, T45, T52 in his three starts but this is the place to get back on track as the Stanford native knows this place well and has had success as a pro. He has two top five finishes here in his six appearances and despite the average finishes over his last two starts, he has been in fine form. He closed the fall season with his first career win which was at the correlating RSM Classic while finishing T4 at the RBC Heritage. Over his last 30 starts, he has 17 percent top five and 30 percent top ten percentages. Mark HubbardOdds: Win 12,000 ~ Top Five 1,800 ~ Top Ten 750Payout: Win 6,000.00 ~ Top Five 450.00 ~ Top Ten 187.50 Hubbard is the longshot this week but has trended the right way and he has also trended right at Pebble Beach. He is coming off a T68 at The Farmers in brutal conditions but prior to that in his previous six starts, he had four T21 finishes or better including a T3 in Bermuda. Granted, the field is elite this week but all he has to do to contend is play the course and after a missed cut here in 2020, he has gotten progressively better with finishes of T55 in 2021, T33 in 2022, T20 in 2023 and T4 in 2024. Results through The Farmers Insurance open (2 Tournaments): Win: -4,000Top Five: -2,000Top Ten: +450

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Farmers Insurance Open Best Bets

Tuesday, Jan 21, 2025

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% with odds, payouts and results based on a $1000 unit (easy round number for bookkeeping) on each of the following player. The payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings:Will ZalatorisOdds: Win 2,200 ~ Top Five 450 ~ Top Ten 225Payout: Win 1,100.00 ~ Top Five 112.50 ~ Top Ten 56.25Zalatoris is off to a good start this season with a T12 and a T26 which comes after a good end to last season after a rough middle of the circuit as he was trying to get back into form following a major back injury. He is a player with a great course fit as he has a T13, T7 and a runner-up in a playoff in 2022. SG: Approach is a key metric here because of the difficulty of the green complexes but he is No. 34 in SG: Around The Green. His putting has been suspect through two starts but he is known for streaky putting and he likes the Poa. He is in the similar category with Max Homa and even better as he is No. 4 on tour in SG: Very Difficult Courses over the last 36 rounds.Max GreysermanOdds: Win 2,500 ~ Top Five 500 ~ Top Ten 250Payout: Win 1,250.00 ~ Top Five 125.00 ~ Top Ten 62.50We rode with Greyserman last week and a missed Eagle putt on 17 and a double bogey on 18 knocked him from solo third to T7. That followed a T24 at The Sentry and going back, he has five top tens over his last 10 starts including three runner-ups and has not missed a cut over his last 13 starts. He missed the cut here last season before he got hot but something was not right as he had a missed cut and a T56 prior to the Famers and then WD in his next start which then took time to find that current streak he is on with the help of some equipment changes. He comes here at the best time as he has played 18 consecutive rounds under par.Max HomaOdds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 550 ~ Top Ten 280Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 137.50 ~ Top Ten 70.00Last year was not a great year for Homa as he finished outside the top 40 for the first time since 2019-20. His putting has been his problem area at times but he is No. 2 on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting (Poa) over the last 24 rounds and he is one to flourish on California greens. Additionally, as long as it is not a Birdie fest, he tends to play a lot better as he is No. 4 on tour in SG: Very Difficult Courses over the last 36 rounds. Even better, using comparable courses, many which fall into the previous Very Difficult Courses category, Homa is No. 1. He won here in 2023 and at Riviera and Silverado before that and if the putter remains hot on these greens, we will be in contention.Taylor PendrithOdds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 600 ~ Top Ten 300Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 150.00 ~ Top Ten 75.00Pendrith may be flying under the radar as not quite being a household name yet, but his odds are showing he belongs and we feel there is still value. He is in the midst of the best run of his career as following a cut at the PGA Championship last May, he has made the weekend in 13 consecutive starts including 10 top 25s and finishing top ten three times. Before this run, he won at the Byron Nelson which was sandwiched between a T10 and two T11s. He has had success here with three made cuts in three starts including a T16 in 2022 and a T9 last year. 11 players have not missed the cut here over the last five years ( three start minimum) and Pendrith is part of that short list.Stephan JaegerOdds: Win 6,000 ~ Top Five 1,000 ~ Top Ten 500Payout: Win 3,000.00 ~ Top Five 250.00 ~ Top Ten 125.00Jaeger has the tools to contend and win here and he proved that last year with a T3, after heading to the back nine with the Sunday lead. Torrey Pines is extremely long and he is one of the longer hitters on tour which can be a big edge if he can keep it somewhat straight. Last season was front loaded with another T3 and then a win at the Houston Open but it was a rough second half with only one top 25 from the end of May through the playoffs. He had a good fall though with a T23 and a solo second while his first two starts this year have been solid highlighted by a T3 at the Sony Open. His putting has been in peak form as well, gaining 3.5 strokes or more in three of his last five starts.Taylor MooreOdds: Win 8,000 ~ Top Five 1,200 ~ Top Ten 600Payout: Win 4,000.00 ~ Top Five 300.00 ~ Top Ten 150.00Moore is our biggest longshot this week as we are not looking at the big bombs based on the difficulty and the above average, albeit not elite, field. He missed the cut at the Sony Open but bounced back with a T7 at The American Express last week. He was a roller coaster last season as he finished T2 at the Houston Open then regressed before a T12 at the PGA Championship five starts later. It was another regression before a T10 at the Rocket Mortgage then three missed cuts before a T12 at the 3M Open before fading to end the season. We bring this up as the regression could settle in based on the past but we like the early momentum backed by his play around the green and his distance off the tee.Results through The American Express (1 Tournament):Win: -2,000Top Five: -1,000Top Ten: +200

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The American Express Best Bets

Wednesday, Jan 15, 2025

Each bet is Win/Top Five/Top Ten. The typical recommendation is 50%/25%/25% so based on a $100 unit on each of the following players, the payouts are listed right below the odds which are all from DraftKings: Sam BurnsOdds: Win 1,600 ~ Top Five 330 ~ Top Ten 180Payout: Win 800.00 ~ Top Five 82.50 ~ Top Ten 45.00 Burns got off to a bad start at The Sentry with an opening round 72 but closed 66-66-65 to finish T8 and after taking last week off, he comes in with good form and good course history. He started strong last season with four top ten finishes in his first five starts including a T6 at The American Express, had his ups and downs in March through most of July but closed the season with five straight top 14 finishes including a T5 and a T2. Coming off the great finish last week should propel him at The American Express as four of his last five starts have resulted in T18 in 2019, T6 in 2020, T11 in 2023 and T6 in 2024. Max GreysermanOdds: Win 3,000 ~ Top Five 550 ~ Top Ten 280Payout: Win 1,500.00 ~ Top Five 137.50 ~ Top Ten 87.50 Greyserman is ready to break through. Ever since he added a mini driver to his bag at the John Deere Classic last season, over his last 10 starts, he had seven top 25 finishes including four top fours with three runner-ups. Looking at real recent form and course history, he has been one poor round away from excellence. At The American Express last season, he opened 67-68-66 but posted a Sunday 73 to finish T56. It was more of the same at The Sentry as he opened 70-67-63 but closed with a 72 for a T24 finish. Those Sunday stinkers are anomalies as he closed with two 63s and two 65s over that run at the end of last season. Si Woo KimOdds: Win 3,500 ~ Top Five 650 ~ Top Ten 350Payout: Win 1,750.00 ~ Top Five 162.50 ~ Top Ten 45.00 Kim won this event in 2021 and he finished inside the top 25 in every year since while his SG: Total of 23.19 is 11th of all players over the last five years at The American Express. Kim is 7th in Total Strokes Gained: Pete Dye Designs over the last 50 rounds so it is no secret why he likes it here. His putting is erratic no matter where he goes but when he has it going, he will be there and he leads the early stats with Putting From 25+ Feet. The putter let him down at the Sony Open as he missed the cut because of his flat stick which was unfortunate as he gained strokes in all three other areas and he is always live here. Taylor MontgomeryOdds: Win 30,000 ~ Top Five 4,000 ~ Top Ten 1,800Payout: Win 15,000.00 ~ Top Five 1000.00 ~ Top Ten 450.00 Long Shot. Montgomery led the PGA Tour in SG: Putting last season at 0.866 and his 27.80 putts-per-round average ranked second in 21 starts and this tournament is about putting and birdies so he fits the mold in that regard. Additionally, over the last year, he is in the fourth percentile in Proximity To The Hole: 150-200 Yards and this is where over a third of approaches came from in the event last year. He finished T65 last week at the Sony Open and his downfall was surprising as it was his putting where he lost 0.46 strokes putting. He was not great here last year where he finished 61st but finished 5th in 2023.

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2024 NFC West Overview and Betting Preview

Tuesday, Sep 03, 2024

2024 NFC West Overview and Betting PreviewRegular Season Win Totals and NFC West/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)San Francisco 49ers: 11.5 Over +125 Under -145 ~ NFC West Winner -195 ~ Super Bowl Winner +600Los Angeles Rams: 8.5 Over -160 Under +135 ~ NFC West Winner +350 ~ Super Bowl Winner +3,000Seattle Seahawks: 7.5 Over -150 Under +130 ~ NFC West Winner +650 ~ Super Bowl Winner +6,500Arizona Cardinals: 6.5 Over -150 Under +125 ~ NFC West Winner +1,300 ~ Super Bowl Winner +10,000Coaching ChangesSeattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll Out ~ Mike Macdonald InTeam PreviewsSan Francisco 49ers: 14-6 ~ 5-1 NFC West ~ 9-11-0 ATS ~ 10-8-2 O/UWon the NFC West, Lost Super Bowl LVIII2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 13Notable Additions: QB Josh Dobbs, OT Brandon Parker, DE Leonard Floyd, DE Yetur Gross-Matos, DT Maliek Collins, DT Jordan Elliott, LB De’Vondre Campbell, CB Isaac YiadomNotable Losses: QB Sam Darnold, TE Charlie Woerner, OT Matt Pryor, DE Chase Young, DE Randy Gregory, DE Clelin Ferrell, DT Arik Armstead, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LB Oren Burks, CB Isaiah Oliver, S Tashaun Gipson, S Logan RyanNotable Draft Selections: WR Ricky Pearsall, CB Renardo Green, OT/G Dominick Puni, S Malik Mustapha, RB Isaac Guerendo, WR Jacob CowingThe 49ers fell just short once again as they made it to the Super Bowl for the second time in five years but lost to Kansas City yet again and it was their third Super Bowl loss in the last 12 seasons. San Francisco has also lost two NFC Championships over this five-season stretch so there are questions about head coach Kyle Shanahan, who is considered one of the best system coaches and play callers, that he does not have what it takes under pressure. The 49ers are favored to win the NFC once again but the conference is getting stronger and this will be an interesting year to see how they handle an offseason that was not a smooth one and how they can recover from yet another close call. The numbers do not lie as San Francsico finished No. 1 in Total EPA, Passing EPA and Rushing EPA on offense and everyone is back. Quarterback Brock Purdy quieted the naysayers that his 2022 season was blind luck but he followed it up with an MVP-like 2023 season as all of his numbers went up and he posted a 113.0 QB Rating. It helps having the best running back in the game in Christian McCaffrey in the backfield as well as three No. 1 pass catchers in George Kittle, Deebo Samual and Brandon Aiyuk. The only concern heading into the season was the holdout of tackle Trent Williams but as of Tuesday morning before Week One, a new deal has been worked out. Defensively, the 49ers finished No. 7 in EPA and despite losing Arik Armstead and Chase Young, they got the replacements.It was a turbulent offseason with contract disputes, trade requests and holdouts but management did its job and kept everyone happy and anyone that thinks the "loud" offseason is going to hurt them is wrong. This has not deterred the 49ers futures as they are bigger favorites across the board than from this time last season while their win total has increased by a half win. The NFC West plays the AFC East and NFC North and they play Kansas City, Dallas and Tampa Bay in their crossover games and while the first two are at home, they come in back-to-back weeks to close October. This is the best roster in the NFC and will be in for another Super Bowl run but there is no value and they were injury free last year so we will be on the sidelines.Los Angeles Rams: 10-8 ~ 5-1 NFC West ~ 11-6-1 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/UFinished 2nd in the NFC West, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 15Notable Additions: TE Colby Parkinson, G Jonah Jackson, CB Tre'Davious, CB Darious Williams, S Kamren CurlNotable Losses: QB Carson Wentz, C Brian Allen, DT Aaron Donald, DT Larrell Murchison, LB Troy Reeder, CB Ahkello Witherspoon, CB Duke Shelley, S John JohnsonNotable Draft Selections: DE Jared Verse, DT Braden Fiske, RB Blake Corum, S Kamren Kinchens, DE Brennan JacksonAfter winning the Super Bowl in 2021, the Rams were crushed by injuries in 2022 on their way to a 5-12 season that included a six-game losing streak and last season did not start good. Los Angeles opened 3-6 but had one of the best second halves in the league as it went 7-1 down the stretch and lost a tough one-point game at Detroit in the Wild Card Round. The Rams proved that good teams do not let the bad things linger and they fought through the adversity which will make them relevant again in 2024. Los Angeles may not have been able to make the late run like they did without two emerging stars on offense in wide receiver Puka Nacua and running back Kyren Williams who combined for 2,925 yards from scrimmage. Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford is still playing at a high level and a healthy Cooper Kupp can give the Rams an offense that can rival the 49ers. What was a weakness two years ago, the offensive line improved and went from No. 28 to No. 16 according to PFF. The Rams finished No. 9 in Offensive EPA but were the best in the second half of the season. The defense was inconsistent but kept pace with their numbers from the two previous seasons despite finishing No. 22 in EPA. The loss of Aaron Donald to retirement will be impossible to make up but Los Angeles hit the market to shore up the secondary by signing two legit corners in Tre'Davious White and Darious Williams while using the draft to at least try and keep the defensive line strong.Coming off that injury-plagued disaster in 2022, the Rams were longshots across the board and while they did not cash any standings futures, they were successful in crushing the win total by 3.5 games and cashing their +300 ticket on making the playoffs. The odds have come down considerably in 2024 but not to the point of being unbettable. Los Angeles should have the offense to keep pace with the 49ers who could be in position for some regression and less luck factors including injuries which has what put the Rams behind the eight-ball. The schedule is pretty tame as the three crossover games are Las Vegas, Philadelphia and New Orleans. The over wins are tough because they are juiced but a division bet could be worth a shot at +350.Seattle Seahawks: 9-8 ~ 2-4 NFC West ~ 8-7-2 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/UFinished 3rd in the NFC West, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 25Notable Additions: QB Sam Howell, OT George Fant, G Tremayne Anchrum, C Nick Harris, DT Johnathan Hankins, LB Jerome Baker, LB Tyrel Dodson, S Rayshawn Jenkins, S K’Von WallaceNotable Losses: QB Drew Lock, TE Colby Parkinson, TE Will Dissly, G Damien Lewis, G Phil Haynes, C Evan Brown, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Jordyn Brooks, LB Devin Bush, S Quandre Diggs, S Jamal AdamsNotable Draft Selections: DT Byron Murphy II, G Christian Haynes, LB Tyrice Knight, TE A.J. Barner, CB Nehemiah PritchettSeattle opened the 2023 season 6-3 but then hit a brutal stretch of games facing the Rams, Cowboys and 49ers twice and it went 0-4. The Seahawks closed the season 3-1 but fell just short of a postseason berth as they lost the fourth tiebreaker to Green Bay, the rarely used Strength of Victory which was an unfortunate way to not make the playoffs. Seattle has put together winning seasons in 11 of the previous 12 years with the 7-10 team from 2021 being the only exception but thought it was necessary to make a change and move on from head coach Pete Carroll and his 14 seasons who went 2-0 in the NFC Championship while splitting his two Super Bowl appearances. They hired Mike Macdonald who was the defensive coordinator at Michigan in 2021 and improved that defense by over 17 ppg and over 100 ypg and has spent the last two seasons as the defensive coordinator in Baltimore with the Ravens finishing No. 2 in EPA last season. The offense will essentially be the same led by quarterback Geno Smith who has one of the best wide receiver groups in the league and a great young running back in Kenneth Walker. The interior of the offensive line is the big concern. The Macdonald hire is a great one to resurrect a defense that has dropped in EPA each of the last four years, going from No. 17 in 2020 to No. 29 in 2023. They have done an overhaul at linebacker, replacing all three starters, while upgrading the defensive line by drafting tackle Byron Murphy II from Texas.Can an aging coach that was well past his prime affect betting odds to an extent where those odds have increased considerably across the board? That seems to be the only legitimate reason that Seattle has gone from +3,500 to +6,500 to win the Super Bowl, from +1,400 to +3,000 to win the NFC and from +190 to +650 to win the NFC West. If anything, there is an upgrade on defense with an offense that is pretty much the same. We are not very high on the Seahawks but there is more value on them than any other team as they are still a legitimate playoff contender. They are not going to the Super Bowl or likely even the NFC Championship but with their easy schedule, they can make a Wild Card run and a +180 bet to make the playoffs.Arizona Cardinals: 4-13 ~ 0-6 NFC West ~ 9-8-0 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/UFinished 4th in the NFC West, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 30Notable Additions: QB Desmond Ridder, RB DeeJay Dallas, WR Chris Moore, OT Jonah Williams, C Evan Brown, DT Bilal Nichols, DT Justin Jones, DT Khyiris Tonga, LB Mack Wilson, CB Sean Murphy-BuntingNotable Losses: WR Marquise Brown, WR Rondale Moore, OT D.J. Humphries, DT Leki Fotu, CB Antonio HamiltonNotable Draft Selections: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., DT Darius Robinson, CB Max Melton, RB Trey Benson, OT/G Isaiah Adams, TE Tip Reiman, CB Elijah Jones, S Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, DE Xavier Thomas, OT/G Christian JonesArizona has bottomed out the last two seasons but it lost quarterback Kyler Murray during the 2022 season and he did not come back until mid-November and was legitimately good over the latter half of his eight games played. Back-to-back 4-13 seasons are hard to accomplish in this league but not having the stability at quarterback can do that and this will be a team on the rise. Maybe not to a great extent this season but the Cardinals have a favorable schedule that is third easiest in the league, a healthy quarterback and what looks like a generational wide receiver coming out of the draft. Murray struggled in his first couple games but after the Cardinals went 1-8 in his absence, he led them to a 3-5 record with three of those losses coming against playoff teams. There is now stability and he will have Marvin Harrison, Jr. at his disposal which will give better looks to Michael Wilson and tight end Trey McBride who had a breakout second half when Murray returned. James Connor and draft pick Trey Benson form a solid running game while the offensive line made some upgrades so the offense that has been near the bottom of the NFL in EPA the last two seasons should show significant improvements. The defense did not do much to help out the offense as Arizona was No. 31 in EPA but there have been upgrades to help. Drafting Darius Robinson will improve a bad defensive line and if they can show progress from the No. 31 Pressure Rate, the already solid secondary could be really good.No one will be giving the Cardinals a chance in the NFC West but the odds have decreased considerably which had to happen based on the personnel differences coming into this season compared to last year. There is still value in some spots however in what is a pretty loaded division which is keeping their numbers among the longshot level. Winning the division is not a crazy expectation as this is a common occurrence as we have seen 18 teams go from worst to first in the last 20 seasons. It is definitely worth a sprinkle with the two top teams in the NFC West possessing some injury-plagued players. The over is juiced at -150 and after a rough start with a frontloaded schedule, the Cardinals can ease in and realistically grab 7 or 8 wins.

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2024 NFC South Overview and Betting Preview

Sunday, Sep 01, 2024

2024 NFC South Overview and Betting PreviewRegular Season Win Totals and NFC South/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Atlanta Falcons: 9.5 Over -150 Under +125 ~ NFC South Winner -130 ~ Super Bowl Winner +3,000Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ NFC South Winner +320 ~ Super Bowl Winner +8,000New Orleans Saints: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100 ~ NFC South Winner +400 ~ Super Bowl Winner +10,000Carolina Panthers: 5.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ NFC South Winner +1,100 ~ Super Bowl Winner +25,000Coaching ChangesAtlanta Falcons: Arthur Smith Out ~ Raheem Morris InCarolina Panthers: Frank Reich Out ~ Dave Canales InTeam PreviewsAtlanta Falcons: 7-10 ~ 3-3 NFC South ~ 5-12-0 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/UFinished 3rd in the NFC South, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 31Notable Additions: QB Kirk Cousins, WR Darnell Mooney, WR Rondale Moore, WR Ray-Ray McCloud, TE Charlie Woerner, CB Antonio HamiltonNotable Losses: QB Desmond Ridder, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Mack Hollins, WR Van Jefferson, TE Jonnu Smith, TE MyCole Pruitt, DE Calais Campbell, DE Bud Dupree, CB Jeff OkudahNotable Draft Selections: QB Michael Penix Jr., DT Ruke Orhorhoro, DE Bralen Trice, DT Brandon Dorlus, LB JD BertrandAtlanta has increased its offensive yardage output while decreasing its defensive yardage output in each of the last three years yet the Falcons have finished with identical 7-10 records each season. They have gone six straight seasons without a winning record but many are expecting that to change in 2024 and the odds are reflecting the optimism. The record in 2023 should have been better as Atlanta finished No. 24 or worse in total offense and total defense in 2021 and 2022 but improved those rankings to No. 17 and No. 11 respectively last season but were on the wrong end of some close games. The Falcons started 4-3 but their next six losses were by a combined 16 points so there was certainly some bad luck involved yet there was plenty of bad coaching as closing losses by 20 and 29 points cost head coach Arthur Smith his job. After rumors of Bill Belichick possibly taking over, Atlanta settled on Raheem Morris who coached 11 games here in 2020 as an interim head coach and went 4-7. The big move was bringing in quarterback Kirk Cousins who is coming off an Achillies injury but he has looked fine during camp. One thing Smith did that shook heads was underutilizing running back Bijan Robinson and that is going to change under Morris. The Falcons picked up a trio of receivers to go with Drake London who is expected to have a big season along with tight end Kyle Pitts as there is a real quarterback room now. The defense was solid but lost their top two edge rushers.Despite winning no more than seven games for six straight seasons and going 1-6 to the under, the Falcons win total this season is 9.5 and juiced at -150. The addition of Cousins, an upgrade in the head coach, playing in arguably the worst division in the league and playing the second easiest schedule are all playing into this and many seem to be going all in. Winning the division is certainly conceivable as it getting double digit wins as they close the season with eight games against non-playoff teams from last season but that is where it should end. Going from +8,000 last year to +3,000 this year to win the Super Bowl is overly aggressive and their NFC odds also have a similar decrease. Everyone is in but we are steering clear.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10-9 ~ 4-2 NFC South ~ 12-7-0 ATS ~ 7-12-0 O/UWon the NFC South, Lost in the NFC Divisional Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 28Notable Additions: G Sua Opeta, C Ben Bredeson, DE/OLB Randy Gregory, CB Bryce Hall, CB Tavierre Thomas, S Jordan WhiteheadNotable Losses: OT Greg Gaines, G Matt Feiler, DE William Gholston, DE/OLB Shaq Barrett, LB Devin White, CB Carlton Davis, S Ryan NealNotable Draft Selections: C Graham Barton, DE/OLB Chris Braswell, S/CB Tykee Smith, WR Jalen McMillan, RB Bucky IrvingWhile Atlanta was a very unlucky team last season, Tampa Bay was just the opposite. The Buccaneers snuck into the playoffs thanks to a 5-1 end to the regular season which did include a solid win over Green Bay but the other four wins were against non-playoff teams including a pair over Carolina. The closing soft schedule was ideal as through their first 11 games, the Buccaneers were outgained in eight of those which resulted in seven losses. It was the third straight division title for Tampa Bay and fourth straight playoff appearance but let’s not forget that Tom Brady was leading the offense for the first three of those postseason appearances. Baker Mayfield got them there last season as he was solid, throwing for over 4,000 yards with 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while posting a 94.6 QB rating. Still, the offense finished No. 23 overall and was No. 16 in EPA and while they still have wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and running back Rachaad White, they did nothing much to upgrade the offense with the exception drafting center Graham Barton who should provide help right away along the offense line. The defense was even further down the rankings as the Buccaneers were No. 18 in EPA as the passing defense was abysmal with a lot of that due to having a poor pass rush. The cornerbacks were the big issue in the secondary so losing Carlton Davis is not a big deal but Tampa Bay needs to find a way to get to the quarterback or it will be another rough year.The Buccaneers were not given much of a chance last season with life after Tom Brady and they were stamped with 6 wins but surpassed that with their strong run at the end of the season. Tampa Bay finished as the third luckiest team in the NFL and part of what goes into that is injuries and the Buccaneers were pretty fortunate in that regard, namely along the offensive line. Their win total has come down and justifiably so as no one really bought into them last season and many will not this year either including right here. Despite playing an easy slate that features the NFC East and AFC West, those divisions will be better and their three crossovers are Detroit, Baltimore and San Francisco. Under 7.5 at plus money is the play.New Orleans Saints: 9-8 ~ 4-2 NFC South ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/UFinished 2nd in the NFC South, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 32Notable Additions: WR Cedrick Wilson, OT Oli Udoh, DE Chase Young, LB Willie Gay, LB Khaleke HudsonNotable Losses: QB Jameis Winston, WR Michael Thomas, TE Jimmy Graham, G Andrus Peat, G Max Garcia, DE Malcolm Roach, OLB Zack Baun, CB Isaac Yiadom, S Marcus Maye, S Lonnie JohnsonNotable Draft Selections: OT Taliese Fuaga, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, QB Spencer RattlerThe Saints finished tied with Tampa Bay atop the NFC South but lost the tiebreaker and missed the playoff for a third consecutive season. This coincides with the retirement of quarterback Drew Brees who led them to four straight postseason appearances in his final four seasons and the quarterback play has regressed considerably. Derek Carr was not horrible by any means, he just was not clutch and had trouble running the redzone offense. Last season should have been so much better as the Saints finished No. 9 in points scored, No. 8 in points allowed, No. 7 in scoring margin and they outgained 10 of 17 opponents and this is where coaching comes into play. Head coach Dennis Allen is the favorite to be the first coach fired this season and the one thing that could bail him out is they have a new offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak who should help Carr. New Orleans did nothing else to improve the offense while losing wide receiver Michael Thomas and tight end Jimmy Graham and both of which are still free agents which is saying they are not big losses for the Saints. Running back Alvin Kamara is coming off a below average season so getting him more involved would be a benefit. A weak offensive line could be their undoing. The defense was solid once again which has been the case for a few years no but they are getting older, especially in the secondary which could be problematic as the Saints have no pass rush, finishing No. 27 in pressure rate last season.Like Tampa Bay, New Orleans looks to be another team that no one is buying as despite a winning record last season and no huge defections, its odds have risen while the win total has come down. This is despite playing the so-called easiest upcoming schedule. Their Super Bowl odds are the highest they have been since 2000 and this is just the second time since 2007 that the Saints have had a win total of less that 8 and who are we to question the oddsmakers numbers. Their own division stinks but the AFC West and NFC East should be better and their three crossover games are against the Packers, Browns and Rams so there is no easy way to find eight wins. This is another fade as we go under and -210 to miss the playoffs.Carolina Panthers: 2-15 ~ 1-5 NFC South ~ 4-11-2 ATS ~ 5-11-1 O/UFinished 4th in the NFC South, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 30Notable Additions: WR Diontae Johnson, WR David Moore, OT Yosh Nijman, G Damien Lewis, G Robert Hunt, DT A’Shawn Robinson, DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB D.J. Wonnum, DE/OLB K’Lavon Chaisson, LB Josey Jewell, CB Dane Jackson, S Jordan Fuller, S Nick ScottNotable Losses: WR D.J. Chark, TE Hayden Hurst, DE/OLB Brian Burns, DE/OLB Yetur Gross-Matos, DE/OLB Marquis Haynes, LB Frankie Luvu, LB Kamu Grugier Hill, CB Donte Jackson, CB C.J. Henderson, CB Shaq Griffin, S Jeremy ChinnNotable Draft Selections: WR Xavier Legette, RB Jonathon Brooks, LB Trevin Wallace, TE Ja’Tavion SandersCarolina had a miserable 2023 season as it won only two games and those easily could have been losses as the Panthers won the two games by two points each and by a combined score of 24-20 so if either Houston or Atlanta had just average games on offense, Carolina could have put up the goose egg. That was the sixth straight losing season for Carolina and the fifth straight season registering double digit losses as it has gone a miserable 24-59. While upper management, namely owner David Tepper, should be to blame for the disaster that was 2023, head coach Frank Reich was the scapegoat and he became first NFL head coach since the 1970 merger to be fired in back-to-back seasons and both were midseason firings no less. Reich was not the issue but we feel the Panthers upgraded as they hired Dave Canales who has resurrected the careers of two quarterbacks the last two seasons, Geno Smith in Seattle in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in 2023 and now his focus turns to Bryce Young who had one of the worst rookie seasons you will witness but it cannot be all put on him as he was behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Panthers upgraded significantly with their pass protection as they signed guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt. The receiving corps was nonexistent after the departure of D.J. Moore but they traded for Dionte Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette. Losing edge Brian Burns hurts the defense but overall there were some upgrades on an average unit.We are not going all in on Carolina but this could be one of the big surprises. The Panthers not going to the Super Bowl or make any sort of playoff run but in this division, they could be live. Ahead of them are two teams that no one is buying into based on the odds movement from the previous season and an Atlanta team that everyone is already crowning the NFC South champs despite being underachievers for years. Carolina plays the third easiest schedule and their crossover games are against the Bengals, Bears and Cardinals and this team is capable of stealing some wins as no one is going to take them too serious. The over is in play and it is not out of the question to give them a little backing to take this very weak division.

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2024 NFC North Overview and Betting Preview

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

2024 NFC North Overview and Betting Preview Regular Season Win Totals and NFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Detroit Lions: 10.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ NFC North Winner +130 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,200Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ NFC North Winner +230 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,800Chicago Bears: 8.5 Over -160 Under +130 ~ NFC North Winner +280 ~ Super Bowl Winner +3,500Minnesota Vikings: 6.5 Over -140 Under +120 ~ NFC North Winner +1,100 ~ Super Bowl Winner +8,000 Coaching ChangesNone Team Previews Detroit Lions: 14-6 ~ 4-2 NFC North ~ 14-6-0 ATS ~ 13-7-0 O/UWon the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Championship2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 11 Notable Additions: G Kevin Zeitler, DE Marcus Davenport, DT D.J. Reader, CB Carlton Davis, CB Amik Robertson Notable Losses: QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Josh Reynolds, G Jonah Jackson, DE Romeo Okwara, DE Julian Okwara, CB Cameron Sutton, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Notable Draft Selections: CB Terrion Arnold, CB Ennis Rakestraw, OT Giovanni Manu, S Sione Vaki It did not take head coach Dan Campbell very long to move this franchise in the right direction as he inherited a mess and went 3-13 in his first season but bounced right back with the Lions first winning record in four seasons by going 9-8 and then last season, they were on the verge of their first ever trip to the Super Bowl but a second half meltdown in the NFC Championship left them saying what could have been. There is no sulking as Detroit is still one of the favorites to win the NFC with one of the most dynamic offenses in the league and if the defense can take it a step forward, the Lions could be right there again. The division has improved as a whole as evidenced by the win totals and the NFC North odds but it will be Detroit's to lose. They extended the contracts of quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, the two leaders of the offense that finished No. 6 in Offensive EPA and also No. 6 in both Rushing and Passing EPA. The former is due to the breakout season from rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and along with David Montgomery, the Lions have one of the best back duos in the league that runs behind one of the better offensive lines. The defense allowed 45 fewer ypg than 2022 but allowed nearly the same amount of points as they had some good games but offset those with some poor efforts, allowing 28 or more points seven times. The Lions could not stop the pass but upgraded with two solid draft picks along with signing cornerback Carlton Davis. Detroit was a public betting darling last year as following that 9-8 season in 2022, the Lions went from +12,500 that year to win the Super Bowl to +2,200 last year and now the Lions come in at +1,200 and will be heavily bet again following their first division title in 30 yards and that NFC Championship run. They do have the roster to make it happen but the value is shot. The Lions won the division by three games last season and it likely will be a lot closer this year but the odds are relatively the same, going from +135 to +130 so this could be the way to go. The schedule is not easy playing the NFC West and AFC South while the three crossover games are all against playoff teams from last season. Their 10.5 win total is the highest in franchise history. Green Bay Packers: 10-9 ~ 4-2 NFC North ~ 11-8-0 ATS ~ 11-8-0 O/UFinished 2nd in the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Divisional Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 4 Notable Additions: RB Josh Jacobs, OT Andre Dillard, S Xavier McKinney, S Greg Joseph Notable Losses: RB Aaron Jones, TE Joiah Deguara, OT David Bakhtiari, OT Yosh Nijman, G Jon Runyan, LB D’Vondre Campbell, S Darnell Savage, S Jonathan Owens Notable Draft Selections: OT Jordan Morgan, LB Edgerrin Cooper, CB/S Javon Bullard, RB Marshawn Lloyd, LB Ty’Ron Hopper, S Evan Williams The Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay ended with a non-playoff season in 2022 and while it took new starting quarterback Jordan Love to find his footing last season, he ran with it once he did. The Packers opened 2-5 but closed on a 7-3 run to make the playoffs and then ran away from Dallas early in the Wild Card Round before losing a tough three-point game at San Francisco in the Divisional Round. Love started slow as any first year starting quarterback usually does as he posted QB ratings of 88.0 and 65.4 in September and October but put up ratings of 103.1, 107.4 and 128.6 in November, December and January. He looked extremely comfortable down the stretch so maybe it is more about ability and talent and not so much teams not knowing what to expect. Can he keep it going with good but not great wide receivers? The three top receivers, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are all talented but none are a true No. 1 but what they lack in fantasy value, they make up for in consistency and Love having the ability to mix and match to keep opposing defenses honest. The Packers lost running back Aaron Jones to the Vikings but got Josh Jacobs as a replacement and he arguably has more upside. The defense finished No. 24 in EPA and while they allowed fewer than 20 points seven times, they gave up 30 or more five times and the offense could not bail them out in three of those. This is a quality young team but they do not have that it factor that other teams possess. The late run at the end of the regular season along with the blowout of Dallas and the near miss against San Francisco has people believing in the Packers. With the offense that was so young with first and second year starters, opponents simply did not have much on how to defend but with a year of film, teams should be more prepared. But to their own merit, they are a year older with more experience. Six of their 10 wins were against non-playoff teams and the schedule takes a big jump up in strength so it will not be easy. Their three crossover games are against Philadelphia, Miami and New Orleans with none being true road games which helps. The win total seems too high because everyone will only remember the late season surge. Chicago Bears: 7-10 ~ 2-4 NFC North ~ 8-7-2 ATS ~ 9-8-0 O/UFinished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 29 Notable Additions: RB D'Andre Swift, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett, OT Jake Curhan, G Matt Pryor, C Ryan Bates, C Coleman Shelton, DE Jacob Martin, S Kevin Byard, S Jonathan Owens Notable Losses: QB Justin Fields, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Marcedes Lewis, G Cody Whitehair, C Lucas Patrick, DE Yannick Ngakoue, DT Justin Jones, S Eddie Jackson Notable Draft Selections: QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, OT Kiran Amegabjige, P Tory Taylor, DE Austin Booker The Bears had their best season with quarterback Justin Fields in his three years but possessing the No. 1 overall draft pick, they decided to move in a different direction. It has been a lousy run for Chicago as it has been to the playoffs only twice since 2011 while finishing with a winning record only twice over that span as well. The Bears drafted Caleb Williams as their hopeful franchise quarterback and the public seems to be all in with many other upgrades throughout the roster as well. Williams gives them a young talent who navigates the pocket and makes throws like a veteran and unlike most quarterbacks in Bears history, he will have a great group of receivers to throw to. Considering Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson at the age of 24 already has more receiving yards than any player in Bears history, the optimism is real with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze possibly becoming one of the best trios in the league. Chicago has depth at running back after signing D'Andre Swift and this could turn into a potent offense as long as the offensive line can stay healthy which was a problem last season. The Bears had a solid improvement on defense from 2022 and finished No. 13 in EPA thanks to a great second half of the season. Over their final eight games, they allowed 31 points against the Lions in one of those but in the other seven games, they gave up just 15.1 ppg. They will not be that good in 2024 but there is hope that a healthy bunch can do just enough to stay around. While the public loves the Lions once again, they really love the Bears which forced oddsmakers to overadjust some of these odds. While the Bears may be better, the division as a whole is stronger and the Chicago numbers have come down in Super Bowl, NFC and NFC North odds while the win total has gone up. At +280 to win the division, this is the second lowest number since 2010 with the lowest being 2019 when they were +175 and finished third. This is a hard pass. The Bears are 1-9-1 to the under the last 11 seasons and now they are hit with their fourth highest win total over this stretch. They get the Rams, Commanders and Patriots in the crossover games but finding 9 wins seems aggressive. -114 to miss the playoffs could be the bet. Minnesota Vikings: 7-10 ~ 2-4 NFC North ~ 7-7-3 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/UFinished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 18 Notable Additions: QB Sam Darnold, RB Aaron Jones, WR Trent Sherfield, C Dan Feeney, DT Jerry Tillery, DE/OLB Jonathan Greenard, DE/OLB Andrew Van Ginkel, LB Blake Cashman, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, CB Shaq Griffin Notable Losses: QB Kirk Cousins, QB Josh Dobbs, RB Alexander Mattison, WR K.J. Osborn, OT David Quessenberry, G Dalton Risner, DE Danielle Hunter, DE D.J. Wonnum, DE Marcus Davenport, DT Dean Lowry, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Troy Dye, K Greg Joseph Notable Draft Selections: QB J.J. McCarthy, DE Dallas Turner, CB Khyree Jackson The Vikings had high hopes last season coming off a 13-win season but that was a façade as they were the luckiest team in the NFL as they went 11-1 in one possession games during the regular season. Flash forward to last season, they opened 0-3, all one possession losses no less, and while they rallied to get to 4-4, quarterback Kirk Cousins was lost for the season with an Achillies injury and they could not produce in the second half on the season, finishing on a 1-6 run, the lone win being a 3-0 snoozefest over Las Vegas. Now that Cousins is gone, Minnesota had to decide between Sam Darnold, who is playing for his fourth team in five years, or rookie J.J. McCarthy but it was unfortunately decided when McCarthy was lost for the season with a knee injury. Darnold does have one of the best wide receivers in football in Justin Jefferson, a solid second option in Jordan Addison and a great tight end in T.J. Hockenson when he gets back to full health. The Vikings upgraded their running back by signing Aaron Jones away from Green Bay and they have a very solid offensive line. But is Darnold really the answer? The defense was horrible from 2020-2022 but they showed improvements last season, going from second worst in total defense to No. 16. Minnesota only had two players register more than three sacks and both are gone so the turnstile the defense has gone through from last season needs to find some players to step up in a highly offensive division. Drafting Dallas Turner was a start. The 6.5 wins for the Vikings are the lowest since 2014 when the number was 6 and they actually have not been below 8.5 since 2015 so the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty big drop-off. This is because of Darnold who entered the league as a can't miss but he has been just that with his 21-35 record as a starter, his 59.7 completion percentage and his 78.3 QB rating. He has been on some bad teams, but there is not much around him here and he cannot carry a team on his shoulders into the postseason so every future bet is off the board especially when they are -355 to miss the playoffs. The Giants, Jets and Falcons are the crossovers so that is one win and trying to locate six others is a stretch. The under at plus money is a look.

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2024 NFC East Overview and Betting Preview

Friday, Aug 30, 2024

2024 NFC East Overview and Betting PreviewRegular Season Win Totals and NFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner -125 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,400Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Over -145 Under +120 ~ NFC East Winner +170 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,900Washington Commanders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner +900 ~ Super Bowl Winner +12,000New York Giants: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135 ~ NFC East Winner +2,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000Coaching ChangesWashington Commanders: Ron Rivera Out ~ Dan Quinn InTeam PreviewsPhiladelphia Eagles: 11-7 ~ 4-2 NFC East ~ 7-9-2 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/UFinished 2nd in the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 21Notable Additions: QB Kenny Pickett, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DeVante Parker, WR Parris Campbell, G Matt Hennessy, NT P.J. Mustipher, OLB Bryce Huff, LB Devin White, LB Oren Burks, LB Zack Baun, CB/S Chauncey Gardner-JohnsonNotable Losses: QB Marcus Mariota, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, G Sua Opeta, C Jason Kelce, DE Haason Reddick, DT Fletcher Cox, LB Nicholas Morrow, LB Zach Cunningham, LB Shaq Leonard, S Kevin Byard, S Justin EvansNotable Draft Selections: CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB/S Cooper DeJean, DE Jalyx Hunt, RB Will Shipley, WR Ainias Smith, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.Philadelphia had two five-game winning streaks to start last season wrapped around a loss to the Jets on the road to open 10-1 and it was looking well on its way to another Super Bowl run. Then all of a sudden, the Eagles forgot how to score as they put up fewer than 20 points in five of their final seven games including a season-low nine points in their Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers. What was hidden in that offensive run was that the defense was even worse as Philadelphia allowed 31 ppg over their final eight games. It was a stunning implosion and one that many thought would cost head coach Nick Sirianni his job yet he escaped but he is on the hot seat despite nearly winning the Super Bowl just two years ago. A lot of it is rumored that there is a rift between him and quarterback Jalen Hurts but it is something they have to work around to make this work. The Eagles did a pretty big overhaul on both sides of the ball as on offense, they signed running back Saquon Barkley to give them the dynamic player they could not find and recently traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson so they should be back in line with their 2022 numbers. The defense regressed by 70 ypg and 7 ppg from 2022 and Philadelphia brought in a number of new faces across all levels to shore this unit up. The Eagles let seven significant contributors go and brought in more younger talent and nailed two draft picks to bolster their secondary. The biggest move could be hiring Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator.The Eagles come in as the favorite to win the NFC East and the number is similar to that of last season but their NFC and Super Bowl odds have nearly doubled as they came into 2023 at +800 and dropped all the way to +450 prior to their implosion. The win total is one fewer than last season, which they missed the over by a half-game, and the drop in win total correlates with the increase in odds and based on the schedule and all of the upgrades, there is some value in betting Philadelphia across the board but that is not likely where our money is going as there are teams below them with higher odds that could have an easier path. Crossover games against Green Bay and Baltimore away from home could determine their over/under result.Dallas Cowboys: 12-6 ~ 5-1 NFC East ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 10-7-1 O/UWon the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 12Notable Additions: RB Ezekiel Elliott, LB Eric KendricksNotable Losses: RB Tony Pollard, WR Michael Gallup, OT Tyron Smith, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Dante Fowler, DT Johnathan Hankins, LB Leighton Vander Esch, CB Stephon Gilmore, S Jayron KearseNotable Draft Selections: OT Tyler Guyton, DE Marshawn Kneeland, G Cooper Beebe, LB Marist LiufauDallas has won the NFC East five of the last 10 seasons but was unable to get past the Divisional Round three times while losing in the Wild Card Round twice and throw in another Divisional Round loss in 2022 as a Wild Card team, it has been a decade of disappointment. Dallas won its last Super Bowl in 1995 and in 13 playoff appearances since then, the Cowboys have not even made it to the NFC Championship so why they get so much attention and public backing is mind-boggling. Here they are again with high expectations in a conference that is wide open with arguably six teams that can win the NFC with Dallas in that mix. Since 2015, they have been no higher than +1,500 to win the NFC and no other team can stake that claim over the last nine years yet there have been six different teams representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Enough about the Dallas futility as it again has talent to make a run that many fans have not been able to witness. Quarterback Dak Prescott is usually the scapegoat and will likely be again but other than CeeDee Lamb, the offense is not very good. There is no reliable No. 2 receiver, the running game is going to be bad and the offensive line lost two significant starters. Running back Tony Pollard is off to Tennessee so they resigned Ezekiel Elliott to go along with Rico Dowdle. The defense was No. 23 in EPA and they did not do much to upgrade as the pass rush will still be solid but the back end needs help, especially with DaRon Bland out a while.Money will be pouring in on the Cowboys as is the case every year and that will not be including a single cent from this end, at least to start. There will be that one season where Dallas eventually wins the Super Bowl and we will miss it but continuing to chase a so-called contender every season has cost a lot of people a lot of money. Detroit, San Francisco and Houston are the three crossover games besides playing the NFC South and AFC North so this schedule is not easy and there is value on the under at plus money. The bet could be for Dallas to make the playoffs which DraftKings has at -210 but it is a wait and see as the first seven games present a challenge and we could see the number drop should they have some early struggles.Washington Commanders: 4-13 ~ 0-6 NFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/UFinished 4th in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 19Notable Additions: QB Marcus Mariota, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Zach Ertz, G Nick Allegretti, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Dante Fowler, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Frankie Luvu, CB Michael Davis, S Jeremy Chinn, K Brandon McManusNotable Losses: QB Jayden Daniels, DT Johnny Newton, CB Mike Sainristill, TE Ben Sinnott, OT Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey, LB Jordan MageeNotable Draft Selections: QB Jacoby Brissett, QB Sam Howell, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, OT Charles Leno, G Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, DE Casey Toohill, DE James Smith-Williams, LB Cody Baron, CB Kendall Fuller, S Kamren Curl, K Joey SlyeWashington has won the NFC East only three times since the turn of the century, two of those with nine or fewer wins including one with a losing record. They have not had a double-digit winning season since 2012 while having just three 10-win seasons since 1992 after having done so in eight of their previous nine seasons from 1983-1991. This is the epitome of below average and the Commanders are once again going through a rebuild but this one seems a little different. Last season, Washington opened last season 2-0 and while no one was expecting any sort of positive run, it went south quickly as the Commanders lost 13 of their last 15 games with the two wins coming against Atlanta and New England. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. He is being compared to Robert Griffin III but with a higher ceiling and to help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. The Commanders regressed considerably on defense and finished dead last in EPA while allowing 10 more ppg and 85 more ypg than it did in 2022. They did upgrade but far from enough.Could Washington be the Houston of last season, bringing in the No. 2 draft pick to take them to the playoffs? This is unlikely in this division but the Commanders will be better after getting outgained in 13 of 17 games last season. Despite only four wins last season, the win total of 6.5 is the same as last year which came after an eight-win season in 2022 so the oddsmakers are expecting improvements. The schedule definitely helps as Washington has nine home games, it has four winnable road games and its three crossover games are against Arizona, Chicago and Tennessee. All in, there are 11 swing games including seven of the first nine so a 5-4 start a possible and there are two more wins the rest of the way so the over is the play.New York Giants: 6-11 ~ 3-3 NFC East ~ 8-8-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/UFinished 3rd in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 6Notable Additions: QB Drew Lock, RB Devin Singletary, WR Isaiah McKenzie, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan, G Aaron Stinnie, DE Brian Burns, S Jalen MillsNotable Losses: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Parris Campbell, TE Darren Waller, DT A’Shawn Robinson, OLB Isaiah Simmons, S Xavier McKinneyNotable Draft Selections: WR Malik Nabers, S Tyler Nubin, CB Andru Phillips, TE Theo JohnsonNo team has won the NFC East in consecutive years since 2004, the longest streak in NFL history but the Giants have not been part of the musical chairs since their last division title in 2011. New York made a surprising playoff run in 2022, if you can call a run one playoff victory, and it hoped to build off of that heading into last season but there was some early foreshadowing after a 40-0 season opening loss at home against Dallas. Their first four losses were by more than two touchdowns and while they got some late season success from backup quarterback Tommy DeVito, it was a disaster of a season for the Giants. Many are calling this the year it has to happen for quarterback Daniel Jones and head coach Brian Daboll but this is just hard to foresee. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball. Jones has shown some positive things but he looks too uncomfortable a majority of the time and he is coming off that torn ACL while his preseason work has been hard to watch at times. The loss of Saquon Barkley is going to hurt and they did hardly anything to improve one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The defense has regressed each of the last five seasons and not much was invested in improving. They do have a formidable defensive line as they got Brian Burns from Carolina to line up with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence but there are holes elsewhere.While we like the Washington over at 6.5, we love the Giants under at the same number even with a little added juice to it. New York was on pace to have one of the worst records in the NFL last season but closing 4-3 over the last seven games in a stretch that meant nothing inflated their overall record to 6-11 and that hurts going into this season. New York has to face the No. 6 schedule that is loaded early on and this season could be over quickly. The Giants get Indianapolis, Minnesota and Seattle in their three crossover games and none of those are easy despite the first two being at home. They have gone 2-9 to the under over the last 11 seasons, finishing with six or fewer wins in eight of those and we do not see that changing again this year.

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2024 AFC West Overview and Betting Preview

Monday, Aug 26, 2024

2024 AFC West Overview and Betting Preview Regular Season Win Totals and AFC West/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 Over -115 Under -105 ~ AFC West Winner -260 ~ Super Bowl Winner +500Los Angeles Chargers: 8.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ AFC West Winner +350 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,500Las Vegas Raiders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ AFC West Winner +1,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +10,000Denver Broncos: 5.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ AFC West Winner +2,200 ~ Super Bowl Winner +30,000 Coaching ChangesLos Angeles Chargers: Brandon Staley/Giff Smith Out ~ Jim Harbaugh InLas Vegas Raiders: Josh McDaniels Out ~ Antonio Pierce In Team Previews Kansas City Chiefs: 15-6 ~ 4-2 AFC West ~ 13-7-1 ATS ~ 7-13-1 O/UWon AFC West, Won Super Bowl LVIII2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 16 Notable Additions: QB Carson Wentz, WR Marquise Brown, TE Irv Smith Notable Losses: WR Mecole Hardman, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, OT Donovan Smith, G Nick Allegretti, LB Willie Gay, CB L’Jarius Sneed, S Mike Edwards, P Tommy Townsend Notable Draft Selections: WR Xavier Worthy, OT Kingsley Suamataia, TE Jared Wiley, S Jaden Hicks, C Hunter Nourzad Kansas City is coming off its second consecutive Super Bowl victory and third over its last five years and the Chiefs are out to become the first ever Super Bowl three-peat Champion. They have made the playoffs nine consecutive seasons, which includes four Super Bowl appearances, while accumulating double-digit wins in all nine of those campaigns. Additionally, they have been to six consecutive AFC Championship games with the two losses coming by one possession so when the term dynasty is being thrown around, it fits here. Last year was probably the most impressive as the Chiefs had to deal with something they have not had to during this Super Bowl stretch as they were 8-1 at home in the postseason in those first four years with not having to play a road game but won two road games last season at Buffalo and Baltimore. The offense had a down season, easily their worst during this run but the defense picked up the slack as that side had its best results over the last five seasons. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes still showed why he is the best in the league as he had no consistency with his receivers with the exception of Travis Kelce and he will have to figure it out again with a couple more losses while getting Marquise Brown and drafting Xavier Worthy. It might be hard to duplicate the defense from last season as the secondary took a big hit with the loss of L'Jarius Sneed but a healthy Chris Jones still gives them one of the best defensive lines in the league. With Kansas City seeking its unprecedented third straight Super Bowl, the odds are not in their favor simply based on probability because winning in this league is hard but the actual odds are not in their favor either as the Chiefs are +500 after coming into 2022 and 2023 at +1,000 and +600 respectively so there is no value with the number actually coming down. They are significant favorites to win the division with a publicly backed Chargers team likely being the only one that will challenge them. Barring any significant injuries, the Chiefs should win their ninth straight AFC West title. As for win totals, after going over eight straight seasons, Kansas City has stayed under in two of the last three, each missing the over by one win. Pass. Los Angeles Chargers: 5-12 ~ 1-5 AFC West ~ 5-11-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/UFinished 4th in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 27 Notable Additions: RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, TE Will Dissly, TE Hayden Hurst, C Bradley Bozeman, DT Poona Ford, LB Denzel Perryman, LB Troy Dye, CB Kristian Fulton Notable Losses: RB Austin Ekeler, WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, TE Gerald Everett, C Will Clapp, DT Austin Johnson, LB Eric Kendricks, LB Kenneth Murray, CB Michael Davis Notable Draft Selections: OT Joe Alt, WR Ladd McConkey, LB Junior Colson, DT Justin Eboigbe, CB Tarheeb Still, CB Cam Hart The Chargers are one of the most intriguing teams heading into 2024. They have had the talent to make runs at Kansas City but have underachieved by making the playoffs just once in the last five years and that was a disaster, blowing a big lead against Jacksonville. Many blamed the coaching so now we will have a chance to see first-hand as Los Angeles hired Jim Harbaugh, fresh off his National Championship at Michigan, to lead one of the top young quarterbacks who really has not been given a chance. Justin Herbert was banged up last season and ended up missing four games while finishing with a career-low 20 touchdowns. Often proclaimed as one of the best offenses in the league, the Chargers fell off the last two seasons, averaging 33 ypg and 60 ypg less than 2021 and now they are replacing their top three playmakers in Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams. They went through Baltimore to solve the running game with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards while hoping Quentin Johnson and Joshua Palmer can step up outside along with draft pick Ladd McConkey being a sneaky steal. Also, drafting Joe Alt was a curious move with other needs but it made sense as protecting Herbert and keeping him healthy is goal number one. Los Angeles relies on ends Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack to lead their defense that clamped down over the second half of the season outside of that 63-point disaster against the Raiders, allowing 17.1 ppg in seven games around that. The AFC West is playing the AFC North, which is not easy, but also the NFC South which could add a win or two to teams like the Chargers whose numbers seems inflated with the No. 27 schedule playing into that. The three crossover games are Arizona, Tennessee and New England so a 6-1 record is feasible and finding three wins in the AFC West and North should be more than doable. The Chargers have gone 5-0 to the under the last five years and while this is going to be very public, over 8.5 is the play if you do not mind the juice but a flat 9 can be found. Los Angeles has work to do to gel this offense and they only likely have to worry about Kansas City which is why the +350 to win the division is so low. Again public, but worth a sprinkle. Las Vegas Raiders: 8-9 ~ 4-2 AFC West ~ 10-5-2 ATS ~ 5-11-1 O/UFinished Tied For 2nd in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 10 Notable Additions: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Alexander Mattison, TE Harrison Bryant, DT Christian Wilkins Notable Losses: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Josh Jacobs, FB Jakob Johnson, WR Hunter Renfrow, TE Austin Hooper, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, OT Brandon Parker, G Greg Van Roten, DT John Jenkins, DT Jerry Tillery, CB Amik Robertson Notable Draft Selections: TE Brock Bowers, C Jackson Powers-Johnson, OT Delmar Glaze, CB Decamerion Richardson, LB Tommy Eichenberg One of the greatest franchises in the 70s and 80s has not been able to get out of its own way over the last two decades. Since losing to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl XXXVII back in 2002-03, the Raiders have made the playoffs only twice, losing both games in the Wild Card Round and they are now on their 13th different head coach since then with Jack Del Rio and Jon Gruden being the only two to last three years. Antonio Pierce won the players over when stepping into the interim role last year after the firing of Josh McDaniels and he was given the full time job after a solid 5-4 performance. Las Vegas will be breaking in a new quarterback as Gardner Minshew won the starting job over Aiden O’Connell and this is an offense that could struggle. Davante Adams is one of the best receivers in the league but there continued to be trade rumors as he wants out. The other two main options are going to be Jakobi Meyers and first round pick tight end Brock Bowers so there is not a whole lot to be excited about while the running game lost Josh Jacobs and has no suitable replacement. If nothing else, Minshew is fun to watch and will give everything he has but he makes too many mistakes to make them a consistent winner. The defense carried the team last season and nearly gave them a shot to make the postseason. The Raiders finished No. 7 in Defensive EPA and in the nine games under Pierce, they allowed only 16 ppg and added defensive end Christian Wilkins will have to step it up again. This is going to be another tough team to figure out until we can see how this offense is going to be. We know the defense is going to be really good but there were seven losses last season where the offense scored 17 or fewer points and even great defenses cannot overcome that. Las Vegas is catching the same number as last season which it surpassed and has done so in four of the last five seasons. They got the Rams, Dolphins and Jaguars in their crossover games, the first two on the road, and it is as straight forward of a schedule as there can be with seven road losses and six home wins so there are four swing games that will come into play, home against the Chiefs and the Chargers and at Denver and Tampa Bay. Another pass. Denver Broncos: 8-9 ~ 3-3 AFC West ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 8-9-0 O/UFinished Tied For 2nd in the AFC West, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 20 Notable Additions: WR Josh Reynolds, OT Matt Peart, G Calvin Throckmorton, C Sean Mustipher, DT John Franklin-Myers, DT Malcolm Roach, LB Cody Barton, S Brandon Jones Notable Losses: QB Russell Wilson, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Cameron Fleming, C Lloyd Cushenberry, LB Josey Jewell, S Justin Simmons, S Kareem Jackson Notable Draft Selections: QB Bo Nix, DE Jonah Elliss, WR Troy Franklin, CB Kris Abrams-Driane, RB Audric Estime While it was not a resounding success, Denver rallied from a 1-5 start to win seven of their last 11 games for an 8-9 finish that does seem to being taken too serious from oddsmakers. We are finally seeing a season where Denver is not being overvalued as they usually are because of their name as the Broncos Super Bowl odds are pegging them as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Since winning the Super Bowl in 2015, Denver has not been back to the playoffs and has now had a losing record in six consecutive seasons under four different head coaches so there has not been any sort of culture put into place. Head coach Sean Payton did get his team to rally last season, that is other than quarterback Russell Wilson who eventually got benched and got out of town, moving onto Pittsburgh. Now it will be a rookie running the offense as Bo Nix won the starting job over Jarrett Stidham thanks to a solid preseason but he does not have a true No. 1 to throw to as Cortland Sutton and Marvin Mims looking like his two best options. The offensive line is weak and the running game will rely on Javonte Williams who does not look like he is back to 100 percent. The defense regressed considerably last season as the Broncos finished No. 27 in EPA and No. 29 in yards allowed. While it would be nice to have a stout defense help carry a rookie quarterback until he can find his footing, that is not the case here as they could be worse as starting star safeties Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson are gone. As mentioned, the odds are not in their favor with low expectations unless you are actually betting on Denver because there are some value numbers but it could be a waste. Also mentioned is how the Broncos have been overvalued based on name and they have gone 0-7-1 to the under the last eight seasons which coincides with that last playoff appearance. They were 8.5 last year and are down to 5.5 this season which is a big drop and the problem is that their winnable games are all early and that is not good with a brand new quarterback and a bad defense. A 4-4 start is possible but unlikely and a 0-9 finish is possible with home games against the Falcons and Colts being the best of the bunch. This team has under written all over them once again.

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2024 AFC South Overview and Betting Preview

Saturday, Aug 24, 2024

2024 AFC South Overview and Betting Preview Regular Season Win Totals and AFC South/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Houston Texans: 9.5 Over -140 Under +120 ~ AFC South Winner +105 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,600Jacksonville Jaguars: 8.5 Over -110 Under -110 ~ AFC South Winner +250 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 Over -105 Under -115 ~ AFC South Winner +340 ~ Super Bowl Winner +7,500Tennessee Titans: 6.5 Over +110 Under -135 ~ AFC South Winner +1,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000 Coaching ChangesTennessee Titans: Mike Vrabel Out ~ Brian Callahan In Team Previews Houston Texans: 11-8 ~ 4-2 AFC South ~ 10-9-0 ATS ~ 7-11-1 O/UWon AFC South, Lost in the AFC Divisional Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 5 Notable Additions: RB Joe Mixon, WR Stefon Diggs, DE Danielle Hunter, DT Folo Fatukasi, DT Denico Autry, DT Mario Edwards, DT Tim Settle, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Jeff Okudah, CB Myles Bryant, CB C.J. Henderson, S Lonnie Johnson, P Tommy Townsend Notable Losses: RB Devin Singletary, OT George Fant, OT Josh Jones, C Michael Deiter, DE Jonathan Greenard, DE Jerry Hughes, DT Maliek Collins, DT Sheldon Rankins, DT Hassan Ridgeway, LB Blake Cashman, LB Denzel Perryman, CB Steve Nelson, CB Tavierre Thomas, S Kareem Jackson, S Eric Murray, P Cameron Johnston Notable Draft Selections: CB Kamari Lassiter, OT Blake Fisher, S Caden Bullock, TE Cade Stover Coming into last season, Houston was the longshot to win the AFC South with a new head coach and a rookie quarterback and it was not a good start as the Texans started the season 0-2 then won six of their next eight games to gain some traction and took out Tennessee and Indianapolis in their final two games to win the division. Those initial two losses were the only consecutive defeats on the season and they carried the momentum into the playoffs with a blowout win over Cleveland before getting smacked at Baltimore but it was a still a successful season with a very bright future. Quarterback C.J. Stroud looked like a rookie in the season opener against Baltimore but the future NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year did not play like it after, throwing for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. His completion percentage of 63.9 percent needs to improve but he finished with a 100.8 passer rating and that was with losing his top receiver late in the season. Tank Dell is now healthy and they acquired Stefon Diggs to group with Nico Collins to form a great trio. Houston also added running back Joe Mixon to run behind a solid offensive line. The Texans also had the Defensive Rookie of the Year in Will Anderson, part of a defense that finished a respectable No. 14 in Total EPA. There was a lot of turnover on this side so it could be a wait and see how the unit reacts. The schedule is backloaded in strength so the Texans have the ability to get off to another great start. With higher expectations and an AFC South title under their belts, the Texans are hit with a win total of 9.5, three more than they had last year coming into the season which they cashed in Week 13. The schedule has some good but mostly bad to it as Houston has most of their winnable games early so they can get some momentum going. Their crossover games are against the AFC East and NFC North so that is not easy as is the fact the other three non-division games are Dallas, Kansas City and Baltimore. Indianapolis and Jacksonville both could be better so getting to 10 wins might not happen. There is no value to win the division at +105 and the fact that the Texans Super Bowl odds are the seventh lowest shows no value there either. Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-8 ~ 4-2 AFC South ~ 9-8-0 ATS ~ 8-9-0 O/UFinished Tied For Second in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 9 Notable Additions: QB Mac Jones, WR Gabe Davis, WR Devin Duvernay, C Mitch Morse, DT Arik Armstead, OLB Trevis Gipson, CB Ronald Darby, S Darnell Savage, K Joey Slye Notable Losses: QB C.J. Beathard, WR Calvin Ridley, G Tyler Shatley, DE K’Lavon Chaisson, DE Dawuane Smoot, CB Darious Williams, S Rayshawn Jenkins Notable Draft Selections: WR Brian Thomas, DT Maason Smith, CB Jarrian Jones, OT Javon Foster, DT Jordan Jefferson, CB Deantre Prince Jacksonville was one of the bigger disappointments in the AFC last season, not necessarily because it missed the playoffs but because it was the overwhelming division favorite at -155. The Jaguars started just fine at 8-3 but imploded late as they lost five of their last six games to finish 9-8 for a second straight season but last year was just not good enough for a second straight AFC South title. The division looks to be wide open again and Jacksonville could be the team to break away with quarterback Trevor Lawrence healthy and hoping to stay that way unlike last season. He basically threw for the same amount of yards with the same completion percentage as 2022 but threw four fewer touchdowns and six more interceptions. He will have a partially new receiver room with problematic Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones both gone while getting Gabe Davis from Buffalo and drafting Brian Thomas from LSU to compliment Christian Kirk. The offensive line was upgraded which is important to keep Lawrence on the field. The defense has remained steady each of the last few years in yards allowed but that is not a good thing as it has been below average, finishing No. 16 in Defensive EPA last season. They have made improvements, notably signing defensive tackle Arik Armstead from San Francisco to form a very strong defensive line which will help the secondary. The Jaguars allowed 29.2 ppg over those final five losses while posting a shutout in that lone victory but that was against Carolina. As mentioned, this could be the team that has breakaway potential in the AFC South but the schedule is once again going against them as it is every year with their London trips. The Jaguars have only seven true home games and their home field is not great to begin with which has had a lot to do with them not being able to get over the win total in recent years. Jacksonville has gone 13-3 to the under the last 16 seasons with a lot of that putting bad teams on the field but also with their abnormal schedules. Still, if they can get out of the first five weeks with a winning record before going to London, the over is in play. They are definitely worth a look at +250 in the South but past that, there is not enough to love for them to make a long run. Indianapolis Colts: 9-8 ~ 3-3 AFC South ~ 9-8-0 ATS ~ 10-6-1 O/UFinished Tied For Second in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 22 Notable Additions: QB Joe Flacco, DT Raekwon Davis Notable Losses: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Zack Moss, WR Isaiah McKenzie, DE Jacob Martin Notable Draft Selections: DE Laiatu Latu, WR Adonai Mitchell, OT/G Matt Goncalves, G/C Tanor Bortolini, KR Anthony Gould, S/LB Jaylon Carlies Indianapolis went into last season with low expectations as it was coming off a 4-12-1 season, had a rookie head coach and rookie starting at quarterback and its All Pro running back was in a contract dispute. Despite all of this, the Colts opened the season 3-2 as quarterback Anthony Richardson showed flashes but he was banged up early and often and was shut down after playing just four games. They went on to lose their next three games not because of the quarterback but because the defense allowed 37, 39 and 38 points. Richardson is now healthy, running back Jonathan Taylor will actually start the season, their receiving corps is better and a top level offensive line all adds up to an offense that could explode. They left a lot on the table last season as they averaged only 23 ppg despite accumulating their most yardage in four years. Obviously, there is the concern with Richardson but he cannot be tabbed an oft-injured quarterback just yet and his ceiling looks exceptionally high. That aforementioned three-game stretch from the defense potentially kept them out of the playoffs but those were an aberration as they allowed 30 points only one time in their final nine games. Getting defensive end Laiatu Latu at No. 15 in the draft was a steal and should improve upon their No. 21 EPA ranking. Oddsmakers liked what they saw last season from Richardson and as the team as whole fighting through adversity as all of their odds are lower than last season with their win total two games higher. What also is on their side is a very easy schedule as they play the AFC East and NFC North like the other three teams but their three crossover games are all winnable against the Steelers, Broncos and Giants. There are enough other wins out there as well despite nine road games as they get Buffalo, Detroit and Miam at home so one upset there and a 4-2 division record should get them to double digits. At +350, the Colts have the best value to win the division and that is where our bet is, we just have to hope Richardson stays on the field. Tennessee Titans: 6-11 ~ 1-5 AFC South ~ 7-9-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/UFinished 4th in the AFC South, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 23 Notable Additions: QB Mason Rudolph, RB Tony Pollard, WR Calvin Ridley, G Saahdiq Charles, C Lloyd Cushenberry, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day, LB Kenneth Murray, CB L’Jarius Sneed, CB Chidobe Awuzie Notable Losses: QB Ryan Tannehill, RB Derrick Henry, WR Nick Westbrook, OT Andre Dillard, OT Chris Hubbard, C Aaron Brewer, DE Denicco Autry, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, CB Kristian Fulton, S Terrell Edmunds Notable Draft Selections: OT J.C. Latham, NT T’Vondre Sweat, LB Cedric Gray, CB Jarvis Brownlee After six straight winning seasons, the Titans have endured back-to-back losing seasons but they were not complete disasters at 7-10 and 6-11 yet they were enough to cost head coach Mike Vrabel his job which was the most surprising firing in the offseason. Tennessee hired Brian Callahan who served as the Bengals offensive coordinator the last five seasons and he brings in a good pedigree as he is the son of Bill Callahan who also came over to coach the offensive line. The offense has regressed considerably the last few seasons but age has played into that with quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry having their best years behind them and both are now gone. The offense has been upgraded along the offensive line which is a big step in the progress of quarterback Will Levis who showed he can succeed in this league but he needs more consistency. The Titans also signed receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, so along with DeAndre Hopkins, Levis has a very solid group to throw to. They replaced Henry with Tony Pollard who can flourish as the No. 1 back, something he never got to consistently do while in Dallas. The defense actually graded out worse last season as Tennessee finished No. 25 in Defensive EPA as it was horrible against the pass at No. 28. They signed two top cornerbacks to shore up the secondary and while they lost defensive end Denicco Autry, the line will be fine with Harold Landry and Jeffrey Simmons but the linebackers have to step up. This team looks to be unbettable in the futures market with the unknown Levis in control. He threw four touchdowns in his first start against the Falcons but threw only four touchdowns in his other eight games after that combined. That is not the game log you want to see from a quarterback to bet over their win total, and the 6.5 does seem to be inflated even at plus money. The schedule is affecting the total with a doable backend where a 5-5 record is plausible but the frontend is a beast where a 0-7 start is not out of the question as they will be underdogs in all seven games so the under looks safe but not at -375. If a win bet is absolutely needed, DraftKings is offering Exact 6 wins at +370 so that could be fun for a sprinkle instead of laying juice.

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2024 AFC North Overview and Betting Preview

Thursday, Aug 22, 2024

2024 AFC North Overview and Betting Preview Regular Season Win Totals and AFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Baltimore Ravens: 10.5 Over -120 Under +100~ AFC North Winner +145 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,000Cincinnati Bengals: 10.5 Over -125 Under +100 ~ AFC North Winner +140 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,300Cleveland Browns: 8.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ AFC North Winner +600 ~ Super Bowl Winner +4,000Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5 Over +120 Under -145 ~ AFC North Winner +800 ~ Super Bowl Winner +5,000 Coaching ChangesNone Team Previews Baltimore Ravens: 14-5 ~ 3-3 AFC North ~ 12-7-0 ATS ~ 8-10-1 O/UWon AFC North, Lost in AFC Championship2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 2 Notable Additions: RB Derrick Henry, OT Josh Jones, LB Chris Board Notable Losses: QB Tyler Huntley, RB J.K. Dobbins, RB Gus Edwards, WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR Devin Duvernay, OT Morgan Moses, G Kevin Zeitler, G John Simpson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, DE/OLB Tyus Bowser, LB Patrick Queen, CB Ronald Darby, CB Rock Ya-Sin, S Geno Stone Notable Draft Selections: CB Nate Wiggins, OT Roger Rosengarten, DE Adisa Isaac, WR Deonvtez Walker, CB T.J. Tampa Baltimore gained the No. 1 Seed in the AFC last season as it put together an impressive 13-3 record before dropping their meaningless Week 17 game where they rested most starters. The three meaningful losses were by a combined 12 points and they rolled into the Divisional Round of the playoffs with a blowout win over Houston before losing to Kansas City in the AFC Championship as they committed three turnovers, two in the redzone. Despite going through a fairly big overhaul, the Ravens have one of the best rosters in the league led by reigning MVP Lamar Jackson who came into camp in the best shape of his career. There are issues though as they have to replace three offensive linemen which is significant in this run-first offense that also lost both top running backs. They signed Derrick Henry but he is on the other side of his career. There are also a number of changes along the line on defense but there has been depth there and with a secondary that remains mostly intact, the No. 2 ranked defense in EPA will be fine. While they have the second toughest schedule in the NFL based on opponent win percentage from last season, the Ravens have the No. 1 Net Rest advantage as they get 16 more days of rest than their opponents (in contrast, the 49ers have the worst at -21 days). The slate is tough early on with four of their first five games against Kansas City, Dallas, Buffalo and Cincinnati, all of which are in the top ten in Super Bowl odds. The 10.5 wins look to be spot on as we see about 12 games that are swing games so going just 6-6 in those will give them the over but in all actuality, the Ravens should win more than those as we are counting all division games in that mix. The net rest edge is a huge advantage as well as they caught a break with the condensed grouping of some schedules is affecting a lot of teams. The Ravens are not the favorites to win the AFC North which is based on their schedule and personnel changes but they will be right there although there is no value on this number after coming in at +220 last season. Barring significant injury, getting to and winning the Super Bowl is in play but as is the case again, the AFC is loaded and wide open. Cincinnati Bengals: 9-8 ~ 1-5 AFC North ~ 7-8-2 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/UFinished 4th in the AFC North, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 17 Notable Additions: RB Zack Moss, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, DT Sheldon Rankins, S Geno Stone, S Vonn Bell Notable Losses: RB Joe Mixon, WR Tyler Boyd, TE Irv Smith, OT Jonah Williams, DT D.J. Reader, CB Chidobe Awuzie, S Nick Scott Notable Draft Selections: OT Amarius Mims, DT Kris Jenkins, WR Jermaine Burton, NT McKinnley Jackson, TE Erick All, CB Josh Newton The Bengals had a trying 2023 season but somehow were still in the playoff mix at 8-6 but back-to-back losses at Pittsburgh and Kansas City did them in yet a 9-8 finish was still impressive. It is safe to say the success of Cincinnati revolves around the health of quarterback Joe Burrow. The Bengals went 5-5 in games he played but four of those losses were when he was not healthy, three with his calf injury and the final one when he hurt his wrist against Baltimore. Keeping him upright is of the utmost importance and after allowing 50 sacks last season, the offensive line has been upgraded with Trent Brown and draft pick Amarius Mims. Team veterans Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are gone but there should be no drop-off in either unit. While a lot of the blame for missing the playoffs was because Burrow was rarely 100 percent, the defense has to take most, if not all of the blame. The Bengals were No. 28 in Defensive EPA including No. 29 against the run and No. 25 against the pass. There have been changes along the line and in the secondary but will it be enough? The first half of the schedule is a must for a quick start as they face five teams that went a combined 24-61 and two of their toughest games against Baltimore and Philadelphia are both at home. Five of the last eight games are on the road. The Bengals do have slightly higher odds across the board to win the AFC North, AFC and Super Bowl from last season yet their regular season win total is higher than it was in 2023. That might not make much sense but the makeup of this team justifies it. The schedule is backloaded so if Cincinnati gets off to a hot start which it should, it can use that momentum to steal some games in the second half so going over the win total is conceivable as is winning the AFC North. The makeup of this team refers to the fact the Bengals are awful on defense without making enough improvement and they will not be able to make a playoff run without a potent defense so making any move on winning the conference or the Super Bowl seems a stretch. Cleveland Browns: 11-7 ~ 3-3 AFC North ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 11-6-1 O/UFinished 2nd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 1 Notable Additions: QB Jameis Winston, QB Tyler Huntley, RB Nyheim Hines, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Jerry Jeudy, OT Hakeem Adeniji, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Devin Bush, CB Tony Brown Notable Losses: QB Joe Flacco, RB Kareem Hunt, TE Harrison Bryant, C Nick Harris, DT Shelby Harris, DT Jordan Elliott, LB Anthony Walker, LB Sione Takitaki, S Duron Harmon Notable Draft Selections: DT Michael Hall, G Zak Zinter Cleveland was in the same boat last season as Cincinnati as it had quarterback issues but the difference between the Browns and Bengals was that the Browns had a defense, actually, one of the best in the league. It did not do them any good in the playoffs as they were bounced by Houston in a blowout but going 11-7 possibly gives them a lot to look forward to. No one saw Joe Flacco coming from his couch to take the Browns into the postseason but now it is time for Deshawn Watson to show his worth. Suspensions and injuries have limited him to 11 games in Cleveland but only four of those resulted in a passer rating of 90 or higher so he needs to revert to his time in Houston. The offense was also able to overcome the loss of running back Nick Chubb to have an average running game but he will not be ready to start the season so the signings of Nyheim Hines and D'Onta Foreman is a good temporary fix. The defense should be just as good with the only significant loss being linebacker Anthony Walker. The offense has a chance to come together early as after the opener at home against Dallas, the Browns face the Jaguars, Giants, Raiders and Commanders in consecutive weeks although three of those are on the road and then 10 of the last 12 games are against legitimate playoff teams. Looking at this schedule makes it hard to find nine wins as there are only a few sure wins with numerous swing games, a very tough division and crossover games against the Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers and Chiefs. For a team that finished with 11 wins and now having an 8.5 number put on them and not having much change going into this season shows the oddsmakers know this team overachieved so taking the under at plus money is the better option based on this slate and with the injury prone Watson under center with a turnover machine as his backup. That being said, there is no value on the division number and this is not a Super Bowl ready team and while missing the playoffs is juiced at -175, it like the safe bet. Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-8 ~ 5-1 AFC North ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 7-11-0 O/UFinished 3rd in the AFC North, Lost in the AFC Wild Card Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 3 Notable Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, QB Kyle Allen, RB Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Van Jefferson, WR Quez Watkins, DT Dean Lowry, LB Patrick Queen, CB Donte Jackson, S DeShon Elliott, P Cameron Johnston Notable Losses: QB Kenny Pickett, QB Mason Rudolph, WR Diontae Johnson, C Mason Cole, DT Armon Watts, OLB Markus Golden, LB Kwon Alexander, LB Blake Martinez, CB Levi Wallace, CB Chandon Sullivan, CB James Pierre, S Patrick Peterson, S Keanu Neal Notable Draft Selections: OT Troy Fautanu, C Zach Frazier, WR Roman Wilson, LB Payton Wilson, C Mason McCormick The Steelers came away with another winning season to sneak into the playoffs but they were no match for Buffalo in the Wild Card Round. You have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a losing record and head coach Mike Tomlin owns a run of 17 straight seasons at .500 or above. There have been three Super Bowls including two wins, with Tomlin going 1-1, but they have not made it since 2010 and this is likely not the year. Pittsburgh is a totally different team on offense from the start of last season, from offensive coordinator right down to the quarterback room. The Kenny Pickett experiment did not work out and he is out along with Mason Rudolph and they brought in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields and neither have shown much the last couple years to prove to turn around an offense that was No. 23 in Passing EPA last season. They will again rely on the running game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. The defense once again was solid and it all revolves around T.J. Watt as Pittsburgh was 8-2 when he played and 1-6 when he did not but it needs to figure out to succeed around him as while his 19 sacks were outstanding, only one other player had more than four sacks. A big addition is linebacker Patrick Queen coming over from the division rival Ravens and the secondary improved with Donte Jackson and DeShon Elliott coming over from Carolina and Miami respectively to compliment Joey Porter, Jr. and Minkah Fitzpatrick. But it all comes down to Watt staying healthy. Since 2004, Pittsburgh has been an over machine. It is 14-6 to the over and making that even more impressive is their lowest preseason win total was 7.5 twice and four of the six under wins were when they had a double-digit win total. The Steelers have cashed the over in 11 of 13 seasons when it is single digits. Does the train keep rolling or is it time to deboard? Pittsburgh has the most bizarre schedule as its first nine games are against non-vision foes and seven of those are winnable but they cannot slip up as Kansas City and Philadelphia are wrapped around the six division games in the final eight. There are just so many unknowns to make a speculation of the long term performance of this team so looking at in-season odds is the way go.

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2024 AFC East Overview and Betting Preview

Tuesday, Aug 20, 2024

2024 AFC East Overview and Betting Preview Regular Season Win Totals and AFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Buffalo Bills: 10.5 Over +130 Under -155 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,500New York Jets: 9.5 Over -155 Under +130 ~ AFC East Winner +180 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,000Miami Dolphins: 9.5 Over -135 Under -180 ~ AFC East Winner +200 ~ Super Bowl Winner +2,200New England Patriots: 4.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ AFC East Winner +2,500 ~ Super Bowl Winner +18,000 Coaching ChangesNew England Patriots: Bill Belichick Out ~ Jerod Mayo InTeam PreviewsBuffalo Bills: 12-7 ~ 4-2 AFC East ~ 8-10-1 ATS ~ 8-11-0 O/UWon AFC East, Lost in AFC Divisional Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 7 Notable Additions: QB Mitchell Trubisky, WR Curtis Samuel, WR Mack Hollins, OT La'el Collins, C Will Clapp, DE Casey Toohill, DT Austin Johnson, LB Nicholas Morrow, S Mike Edwards Notable Losses: QB Kyle Allen, RB Damien Harris, WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, WR Trent Sherfield, C Mitch Morse, DE Shaq Lawson, DT Linval Joseph, DT Tim Settle, DT Poona Ford, DE/OLB Leonard Floyd, LB Tyrel Dodson, CB Tre'Davious White, CB Dane Jackson, S Micah Hyde, S Jordan Poyer Notable Draft Selections: WR Keon Coleman, S Cole Bishop, DT DeWayne Carter, RB Ray Davis, C Sedric Van Pran Buffalo won its fifth consecutive AFC East title last season but also coming off its fifth consecutive season of playoff disappointment. The Bills have won their last four Wild Card Round games but have dropped their last three Divisional Round games, all at home, including a devastating 27-24 loss to Kansas City last season. While not a complete rebuild around quarterback Josh Allen, Buffalo has replaced many pieces from these past teams, notably receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, center Mitch Morse and most of their starting secondary and this fresh start could be just what they need. Injuries hurt them throughout the season, mostly on the defense but the Bills still finished No. 8 in Defensive EPA and they allowed more than 24 points only four times. Those injuries could actually help going into this season with other players stepping up and gaining needed experience and winning jobs. Buffalo has already sustained a tough loss as All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano will miss about half the season with a bicep tear after missing a big chunk of last season as well. The offense took off after offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was fired and Joe Brady was promoted and now having a full offseason and training camp, he will have them ready. The receiving corps will have a whole new look and after finishing No. 4 in Offensive Passing EPA, this group will be the wild card of how the offense continues to be productive. We do not see any value in betting the 10.5 wins as a revamped roster along with a tough schedule will make it tough getting to 11 wins and we have no interest laying -155 on the under. The Bills have dropped to AFC East co-favorites with the Jets and it will be important to get through the first seven games with at least a 5-2 record as their next seven games are all against teams that had winning records last season including five double-digit winners. Buffalo is tied with the Eagles for the sixth lowest Super Bowl odds at +1,500 but this is the highest they have been since 2020 when they were +3,000 (+900, +600 and +1,100 the last three years) so there could be value there this season banking on the fact they are not overhyped and will not be over bet. New York Jets: 7-10 ~ 2-4 AFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/UFinished 3rd in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 14Notable Additions: QB Tyrod Taylor, WR Mike Williams, OT Tyron Smith, OT Morgan Moses, G John Simpson, DE Haason Reddick, DT Javon Kinlaw, DT Leki Fotu, CB Isaiah Oliver Notable Losses: TE C.J. Uzomah, OT Duane Brown, OT Billy Turner, G Laken Tomlinson, C Connor McGovern, DE Carl Lawson, DE Bryce Huff, DT Quinton Jefferson, S Jordan Whitehead Notable Draft Selections: OT Olu Fashanu, WR Malachi Corley, RB Braelon Allen The Jets have not made the playoff since 2010, the longest active drought in the NFL at 13 seasons and that was all supposed to change last season with quarterback Aaron Rodgers signing with New York but those aspirations lasted four plays into the season when he went down with a torn Achillies and was lost for the season. It was up to Zack Wilson to take over the offense and it was a disaster with New York finishing dead last in the league in Offensive EPA and Offensive Passing EPA. Rodgers is back to full health but he is 41 years old and that injury risk is always there. The Jets shored up the offensive line by signing Tyron Smith but he too is an injury waiting to happen. Garrett Wilson is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and they are hoping Mike Williams can strengthen the unit but again, he is an injury risk coming off a torn ACL. The defense kept the Jets respectable last season as they were No. 3 in Defensive EPA thanks to an outstanding secondary which should be even better with safety Chuck Clark coming back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL. The rushing defense was an issue but Quinnen Williams can still dominate and the signing of Leki Fotu could be a huge addition. The lingering issue is newly acquired Haason Reddick who still has not signed and has requested a trade but if they can work this out, this will again be one of the best units in the AFC. If Rodgers can stay healthy, this team can be very dangerous. A big if though. The Jets have the same win total as last season at 9.5 but it is more juiced at -155 compared to -125 in 2023 and this is risky bet based on many of the players they are relying on having had prior injury issues. It is a middle of the pack schedule with the possibility of 11-12 wins if everything goes right but in the NFL, we can never count on that. New York has shorter odds to win the division than they did last season with the retooled Buffalo roster having an impact on that. Again, this is another bet that will come down to the health of the roster. The Jets are +138 to miss the playoffs and that is an interesting bet to hedge with the +2,000 to win the Super Bowl as it would be a small win if they do not with a chance to still hedge in the playoffs if they do. Miami Dolphins: 11-7 ~ 4-2 AFC East ~ 10-8-0 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/UFinished 2nd in the AFC East, Lost in AFC Wild Card Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 24 Notable Additions: TE Jonnu Smith, OT Jack Driscoll, C Aaron Brewer, DT Calais Campbell, DT Neville Gallimore, DT Benito Jones, DE/OLB Shaq Barrett, LB Jordyn Brooks, LB Anthony Walker, CB Kendall Fuller, CB Siran Neal, S Jordan Poyer Notable Losses: WR Cedrick Wilson, G Robert Hunt, C Connor Williams, DE Andrew Van Ginkel, DE Emmanuel Ogbah, DT Christian Wilkins, DT Raekwon Davis, LB Jerome Baker, CB Xavien Howard, CB Eli Apple, S Brandon Jones, S Jerome Baker Notable Draft Selections: DE Chop Robinson, OT Patrick Paul, RB Jaylen Wright, DE/OLB Mo Kamara Miami opened the season 5-1 with an offense that could not be stopped with the lone loss over that stretch coming at Buffalo and that was a sign of things to come. Those five wins were all against non-playoff teams and of their 11 total victories, a two-point win over Dallas was the Dolphins only one against a team that made the postseason. They face an easy schedule for a second place team as they play 10 games against non-playoff teams from last season but of the other seven games, five of those are on the road. Possibly more important, they have only one home game at 1:00 prior to October 27 so they cannot take advantage of the heat and humidity edge hurting the opponents. Like many teams, the Dolphins offense was hurt by injuries with wide receiver Tyreke Hill being banged up in the second half of the season and the offensive line absolutely getting crushed. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was the one surprise that remained healthy and he led the NFL in passing with 4,624 yards but he does have a past. Miami has one of the best duo running back in Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane. The defense was just average and by the end of the season, they were too banged up to make any sort of playoff run. They lost Jaelan Phillips and Jalen Ramsey at different points so staying healthy will be a big part of improving their No. 15 Defensive EPA from last season. They lost tackle Christian Wilkins, end Andrew Van Ginkel and linebacker Jerome Baker so there are holes to fill. The Dolphins are with the Jets at 9.5 wins but at smaller odds which could make them the more tempting take if deciding between the two. The intangible is their home/road splits with the schedule as they have one additional road game and have no home advantage in September and early October. Miami is slightly behind the Jets and Bills at +200 and this is where the value could lie as they are sort of the forgotten team in the mix even though they were +300 last year and +475 in 2022. The Dolphins have roughly the same odds as last season to win the conference and the Super Bowl and with their roster, they arguably have the highest ceiling in the division so a sprinkle on both of those could be the way to go. New England Patriots: 4-13 ~ 2-4 AFC East ~ 5-11-1 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/UFinished 4th in the AFC East, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 8 Notable Additions: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Antonio Gibson, WR K.J. Osborn, TE Austin Hooper, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, G Nick Leverett, DT Armon Watts, ILB Sione Takitaki, S Jaylinn Hawkins Notable Losses: QB Mac Jones, RB Ezekiel Elliott, TE Mike Gesicki, OT Trent Brown, C James Ferentz, LB Mack Wilson, CB Myles Bryant, CB J.C. Jackson, S Jalen Mills Notable Draft Selections: QB Drake Maye, WR Ja'Lynn Polk, OT Caedan Wallace, G Layden Robinson, WR Javon Baker It has been a quick descent for the Patriots as they are coming off a 4-13 season which was their worst record since going 2-14 back in 1992. They have missed the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since 1999-2000 and you can pretty much assure that the streak will hit three seasons. Now they will play their first season without head coach Bill Belichick as his tenure in New England has come to an end after 24 seasons. It will be up Jerod Mayo to put a competitive team on the field with very little to work with and playing in a very strong division. The offense was atrocious as the Patriots finished No. 31 in Offensive EPA and the Mac Jones era is over after a short stint. New England hopes they did not draft a Jones clone in quarterback Drake Maye but he will likely serve as the backup to Jacoby Brissett. Whoever gets the nod does not have a clear No. 1 receiver to throw to as Kendrick Bourne is the top guy but is coming off a torn ACL and will not be 100 percent. The offensive line is a mess which could hinder the production of Rhamondre Stevenson. New England was actually solid on defense as they were No. 9 in EPA and that unit will be the only thing that keeps them somewhat competitive. This does not look like a last place schedule as outside of playing the AFC East and AFC South, the crossover games feature six of seven games against opponents that should be right in the playoff mix with Arizona being the lone exception although the Cardinals will be much improved. The oddsmakers are not seeing much improvement as they have put a 4.5-win total on them after not coming close to the 7.5-win total placed on them last season. After going 8-0-2 to the over from 2010-2019, New England has gone under three of the last four years, eclipsing the total by just a half-game in 2021. The schedule is pretty brutal and with plus money next to the under, that would be the way to go as they are likely to be underdogs in every game this season. As far as any division, conference or Super Bowl bets, save your cash. DraftKings does have the Patriots at +2,500 to go 0-17, along with the Broncos and Panthers, and while any team going winless is getting less likely in this league, this could be the one team to do it.

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2024 Pac 2/Independent Football Preview

Thursday, Aug 15, 2024

2024 Pac 2/Independent PreviewRegular Season Win Totals (via DraftKings)Notre Dame: 10 Over -115 Under -105Washington State: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100Oregon State: 7.5 Over +110 Under -130Connecticut: 4.5 Over -130 Under +110Massachusetts: 3.5 Over -125 Under +105Coaching ChangesOregon State: Jonathan Smith Out ~ Trent Bray InNotre Dame Fighting Irish 10-3 ~ 9-3-1 ATS ~ 9-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 9Another year, another year of high expectations for Notre Dame. Double-digit wins in six of the last seven seasons while cracking the AP Top 10 in each of those seven seasons has brought the Fighting Irish nothing more than three top five finishes. Notre Dame has made the CFP twice, in 2018 and 2020, only to get blown out in the Semifinals both times and of late, early and mid-season losses have put a wrench in their plans. A controversial loss to Ohio St. after a 4-0 start was a stinger but then a 13-point loss at Louisville was unexpected and they were cooked again. They come into this season as preseason No. 7 and if they can avoid bad losses, the Fighting Irish will be in the CFP once again with the expansion definitely helping. Because they are not affiliated with a Power 4 conference, they cannot get a bye but that should not matter. They just have to get there first. They have 15 starters back but are just No. 101 in experience and will rely on Duke Transfer Riley Leonard to lead the offense that losses its top back and receiver. The defense was stout last season and will be again with nine starters back and a top five secondary. They only have three true road games including the first and last game against Texas A&M and USC. Everything else should be a win including getting Florida St. at home.Washington State Cougars 5-7 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 4Washington St. had its seven-season bowl streak come to an end last season, not counting the 2020 COVID year when it played only four games, as it was a nightmare ending. The Cougars opened 4-0 including a pair of top 20 wins and they moved up to No. 13 in the AP Poll but then it was six straight losses before a win over an equally reeling Colorado team. Washington St. had a chance to still go bowling but lost to eventual CFP invitee Washington on a last second field goal. Now the Cougars enter 2024 with their future up in the air with the dissolving of the Pac 12 so they are basically playing as an Independent and will have to run the table to have any playoff consideration. We do not see that happening as they have only 10 starters back and are No. 121 in experience. They lose quarterback Cam Ward as he transferred to Miami while also losing their top two receivers. Washington St. had no running game last season as it averaged 85 ypg so it needs balance behind a very experienced offensive line. The defense is in bigger trouble with just four starts back as the Cougars have to replace their entire secondary. They play the No. 100 ranked schedule so there is some hope as they face two former Pac 12 teams, a Big 12 team and eight MWC teams and it looks doable to get back to a bowl.Oregon State Beavers 8-5 ~ 5-4 Pac 12 ~ 6-7-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 1Oregon St. is the other former Pac 12 team without a home as it will have to regroup from a disappointing 2023 season. Disappointing in that it could have been something really special as the Beavers got to No. 11 midseason and No. 10 late season but they could not close as their first three conference losses were by a combined eight points. After years of misery, head coach Jonathan Smith turned the program around with three straight winning seasons for the first time since 2006-2009 when it had four straight winning campaigns. This is a great momentum builder but the regrouping stems from Smith leaving to take the job at Michigan St. and Oregon St. returning only five starters. The program promoted defensive coordinator Trent Bray to be the head coach and he will have his work cut out. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei was solid last season but transferred to Florida St. and it will likely be Idaho transfer Gevani McCoy taking over. They also lost their top running back and top four receivers. Only one starter is back on defense that made big improvements the last two seasons but it will take a step back. They have three former Pac 12 teams on the slate to go along with seven MWC opponents as well as Purdue so the schedule is easy enough to make up for the departures.Connecticut Huskies 3-9 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8Head coach Jim Mora was hired in 2022 to try and turn around a program that had not had a winning record since 2011 and he came into a nightmare situation. The Huskies finished 2019 with a 2-10 record as they beat Wagner from the FCS and equally inept Massachusetts, completely shut the program down in 2020 and then went 1-11 in 2021, beating only FCS Yale. Hiring Mora certainly paid off as Connecticut became bowl eligible with a game to spare but they did finish 6-7 because of the bowl loss yet it was something to build upon. Unfortunately, that did not happen as the Huskies opened 1-9 but did win their final two games to restore a hint of confidence. Three losses came to ranked teams and four others were by one possession so it was not as bad as those past seasons. Six starters are back on offense counting quarterback Joe Fagnano who played only two games before being lost for the season. There is experience in the receiver room and the top two running backs return but three offensive linemen have to be replaced. The defense has the chance to be the best in a very long time with eight starters back and a new defensive coordinator from Mississippi St. Seven of the first nine games are at home and many are winnable so we could see another bounce back from Mora.Massachusetts Minutemen 3-9 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6After bringing football back in 2012 for the first time since 1906, Massachusetts entered the MAC and that marriage last only four years because the school did not want to become a full time member. They have made up after 10 years as the Minutemen are set to rejoin the MAC in 2025 but not after another miserable year as an Independent. It has been one of the worst runs in college football history as Massachusetts has gone 24-112 including six seasons with one or no wins. But there is something to build on as the three wins last season were the most since 2018 and they equaled the win total from the previous four seasons combined. Give credit to head coach Don Brown who turned teams around at the FCS level and was a successful defensive coordinator before being hired here in 2022. Offensively, the Minutemen improved by 10.7 ppg from 2022 and they do bring back quarterback Taisun Phommachanh and should improve again despite only four other starters back. The defense was atrocious, allowing over 37 ppg and there is not enough in place to make a big move up. Three SEC teams and three MAC contenders are on the slate but there are also two FCS teams along with Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and Connecticut so their over win total is possible but a bowl game is not.

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2024 Sun Belt Conference Football Preview

Tuesday, Aug 13, 2024

2024 Sun Belt Conference PreviewRegular Season Win Totals and SBC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)Appalachian State: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+275 SBC WinnerTexas State: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+400 SBC WinnerJames Madison: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+750 SBC WinnerLouisiana: 7.5 Over -140 Under +120/+600 SBC WinnerCoastal Carolina: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135/+1,600 SBC WinnerSouth Alabama: 6.5 Over -150 Under +125/+850 SBC WinnerTroy: 6.5 Over +100 Under -120/+1,500 SBC WinnerMarshall: 6 Over +110 Under -130/+1,600 SBC WinnerArkansas State: 5.5 Over -170 Under +140/+1,500 SBC WinnerGeorgia Southern: 5.5 Over +120 Under -140/+2,200 SBC WinnerGeorgia State: 4.5 Over +130 Under -155/+5,000 SBC WinnerOld Dominion: 4.5 Over +120 Under -140/+3,000 SBC WinnerSouthern Miss: 4.5 Over +150 Under -185/+4,000 SBC WinnerLouisiana-Monroe: 2.5 Over +135 Under -160/+40,000 SBC WinnerCoaching ChangesGeorgia State: Shawn Elliott Out ~ Dell McGee InSouth Alabama: Kane Wommack Out ~ Major Applewhite InJames Madison: Curt Cignetti Out ~ Bob Chesney InLouisiana Monroe: Terry Bowden Out ~ Bryant Vincent InTroy: Jon Sumrall Out ~ Gerad Parker InAppalachian State Mountaineers 9-5 ~ 6-3 SBC ~ 6-7-1 ATS ~ 7-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 6It has been a very consistent run for Appalachian St. which has never had a losing season since entering the FBS in 2014 and the only two times it was not bowl eligible was its first probation season and in 2022 when two of its wins were against FCS opponents. The Mountaineers have been to the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in two of the last three years but have yet to win one for head coach Shawn Clark who is now in his fifth season, compiling a 34-18 record and he will be a sought out commodity if they are successful again which we expect they should be and are slight favorites despite the third straight seasons of retuning just 11 total starters. The offense has been steady, averaging at least 33.2 ppg every year since 2017 and the Mountaineers bring back one of the best quarterbacks in the conference in Joey Aguilar who passed for 3,757 yards with 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He has his top four receivers coming back but the offensive line has just one starter back. The defense has regressed each of the last two seasons but there should be improvements with six starters back and a much better front seven. They get Clemson, East Carolina and Liberty in the nonconference slate and four of their five toughest SBC games are on the road so it will not be easy.Texas State Bobcats 8-5 ~ 4-4 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 9Texas St. was one of the bigger surprises in the conference last season as it had put together eight straight losing seasons but ended up 8-5 including a win in its first ever bowl game, a 45-21 win over Rice in the First Responder Bowl. It was safe to say things might gain traction under first year head coach G.J. Kinne when the Bobcats opened the season with an 11-point victory at Baylor as 27.5-point underdogs and things could have been better as three of the five losses were by one possession. After losing to Coastal Carolina and Arkansas St. following becoming bowl eligible, the latter a 77-31 defeat which was the Red Wolves only SBC win last season, Texas St. rolled in its last two games to bring momentum into this season. The Bobcats had Auburn transfer T.J. Finley last season and he was one of the best quarterbacks in the SBC and now they bring in James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud who was just as good. Overall, nine starters are back including top receiver and running back and four of five offensive linemen. Nine starters are back on a defense that regressed by close to a touchdown per game but will show improvements. UTSA and Arizona St. will present a challenge in the nonconference and they miss the top five SBC teams from the East Division while having only four true road games.James Madison Dukes 11-2 ~ 7-1 SBC ~ 8-5-0 ATS ~ 8-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3It has been a seamless transition from the FCS to the FBS for James Madison as it has gone a combined 19-5 in its two seasons. The shift to a new division however meant a probationary period as James Madison could not compete for a conference championship for two years, and it would have been in the SBC Championship Game both seasons, and could not go to a bowl game in the initial season. The Dukes were able to get to a bowl game last season where they lost to Air Force 31-21 in the Armed Forces Bowl but the probation status is over and they can finally play for something real. The problem is, they lost so much from the sidelines, they might not have the talent in a very deep and top heavy East Division. Head coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana and took a lot with him as overall, James Madison has only seven starters back. Former Holy Cross head coach Bob Chesney had a lot of success there and looks to keep the program rolling but it might take a season to come together. Quarterback Jordan McCloud transferred to Texas St. while the six top receivers and four top running backs are gone. On defense, the entire line will be new. A 3-1 nonconference record is possible and they get the two bottom teams from the West Division but they should struggle in the East.Louisiana Ragin Cajuns 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 5-7-1 ATS ~ 8-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8Louisiana had to vacate 22 wins from 2011-2014 due to falsifying ACT scores for five players so four consecutive 9-4 seasons turned into a 14-16 combined stretch and it took time to recover but Bill Napier and finished his last three seasons 34-5 before heading to Florida. Michael Desormeaux took over in 2022 and was saddled with little to work with as he inherited 11 returning starters and the Cajuns had just 10 starters back last season. They went 6-7 both years, the losing records due to bowl losses, so in actuality, it was not all that bad given the situation and now in his third season, his systems and players are in place to get back to making title runs. Louisiana brings back seven starters on offense that was actually very effective last season despite injuries at the quarterback position where three were used. One of those was Chandler Fields who started four games and was very solid in his limited action. The Cajuns have to replace some key playmakers but have the top offensive line in the SBC. They have taken a big step back defensively the last two years but have eight starters back and should show significant improvement. The Cajuns have Tulane and Wake Forest out of conference and while they catch Appalachian St. they get them at home but do have to go to Texas St.Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 8-5 ~ 5-3 SBC ~ 9-4-0 ATS ~ 4-9-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6The Chanticleers entered the FBS in 2017 and it took three years to find their footing but then they took off. The 2020 COVID season was out of sorts for many but Coastal Carolina was not affected as it went 11-0 before losing to Liberty 37-34 in overtime in the Cure Bowl and it followed that up with an 11-2 mark in 2021. They have fallen off slightly the last two seasons but not much as they have gone a combined 17-9, however this could be a trying one for head coach Tim Beck who enters his second season. The offense stayed consistent with 2022 despite the fact the Chanticleers lost All-SBC quarterback Grayson McCall for the entire second half of the season. He has departed and there is a camp battle between Ethan Vasko, who started four games last season and Michigan St. transfer Noah Kim. They do lose their top two receivers but their top two running backs return as does three starters from the offensive line and Beck has an offensive past so they should be just fine. Only six starters are back on defense but only five came back last year and they improved by 8.0 ppg so this unit should not regress too much. A 3-1 nonconference mark is possible with the opener at Jacksonville St. being a swing game but the loaded East Division could be their undoing and they face Louisiana from the West.South Alabama Jaguars 7-6 ~ 4-4 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3South Alabama played its first ever football game in 2009 as an unclassified program, became a member of the FCS for just one season in 2011 and then entered the FBS and the Sun Belt Conference in 2012. The Jaguars did not have a single winning season in its first 10 years but they went 10-3 in 2022 and then went 7-6 last season so head coach Kane Wommack had this team headed in the right direction but he bolted for Alabama to become the defensive coordinator. South Alabama promoted offensive coordinator Major Applewhite to become the head coach and he has had head coaching success at Houston and as the OC here, the offense improved in each of his three years. They will be fine system-wise but personnel wise is a different story with only four starters back as they lose their quarterback along with a 1,000-yard plus running back and a 1,000-yard plus receiver. It looks to be up to redshirt freshman quarterback Gio Lopez to lead the unit. The defense could be worse off with only three starters back, two of which reside in the secondary so the front seven is nearly a total rebuild and there will be a big drop-off from its 21 ppg allowed. The schedule is a tough one with a possible 1-3 nonconference mark and in the SBC, they draw Appalachian St. out of the East on the road.Troy Trojans 11-3 ~ 8-1 SBC ~ 8-6-0 ATS ~ 6-8-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 2Troy was at the top of the SBC from 2016-2018 where it went 20-4 (31-8 overall) but head coach Neal Brown left for West Virginia and Chip Lindsey was hired but failed to produce a winning record in three seasons. Kentucky defensive coordinator Jon Sumrall was hired in 2022 and led to Trojans to a 12-2 record which included an 11-game winning streak to end the season after a 1-2 start and he followed that up with an 11-3 record last season and his two seasons included a pair of SBC Championship Game victories. He took off for Tulane and Troy hired Gerad Parker who was the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame and his first year will be a challenge as the Trojans have only two starters back on each side of the ball. They took a huge hit on offense as they lose a 3rd Team All-SBC quarterback, a 1,661-yard rusher and a 1,000-yard receiver so it will be up to Goose Crowder, who attempted only 13 passes last season, to take over behind an inexperienced line. Troy allowed 17.1 ppg each of the last two seasons but lose their entire defensive line and secondary so this could be big regression year. The nonconference slate includes games at Memphis and at Iowa and within the SBC, they avoid Appalachian St. from the East but face three teams in a four-game stretch coming off their bye week.Marshall Thundering Herd 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 4-9-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5Marshall is coming off its first losing season since 2016 as it went 6-7 with a 35-17 loss to UTSA in the Frisco Bowl solidifying the under .500 mark. It could have been worse though as the Thundering Herd opened the season 4-0 but then lost its next five games, the last four by double digits and they could have cashed it in but won two of their last three games to become bowl eligible. While a losing season is never good to reflect on, the fact Marshall has gone to a bowl game in 10 of the last 11 years is very impressive for a team from a non-power conference where there is always shuffling between top and bottom and it is still something to build on. It could be another challenging season as Marshall brings back only 10 starters, its fewest since 2016 and it affects both sides of the ball. The offense has dipped each of the last three seasons with the quarterback play beyond horrible last season and the Herd are hoping Wake Forest transfer Mitch Griffis can provide a spark but there is not much around him. The defense allowed 12.7 more ppg than it did in 2022 but it was a new system and even with only five starters back, they should improve. Following a likely 2-2 nonconference record, they host Appalachian St. and also get to face the four worst teams in the SBC so the slate could save them.Arkansas State Red Wolves 3-9 ~ 1-7 SBC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 6Arkansas St. went through five head coaches in five years from 2010-2014 with the last four all having success and eventually moving on. That included Blake Anderson who had six straight winning seasons before the 4-7 COVID year and he then left for Utah St. and the Red Wolves made another big hire in Butch Jones yet it did not start out well with a 5-19 record in his first two seasons but he got them bowl eligible last year before losing to Northern Illinois 21-19 in the Camellia Bowl. Now is the time to bring the big winning years back as everything is in place with the most experienced team in the conference and the fifth most experienced team in the country. The Red Wolves have 10 starters back on offense with the right guard only needing to be replaced. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor was named the SBC Freshman of the Year after a solid season and will only get better as they should surpass 30 ppg after averaging 27.1 ppg in 2023. The defense has only six starters back but all 11 starters are either juniors or seniors so expect a big improvement on this side of the ball after allowing over 30 ppg each of the last five years. Michigan and Iowa St. are losses outside the SBC and while the two tough West games against Texas St. and Louisiana are on the road, they get ODU and Georgia St. from the East.Georgia Southern Eagles 6-7 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 7-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 8Georgia Southern had its most successful season since coming into the FBS and the SBC in 2014 when it went 10-3 in 2018 under head coach Chad Lunsford but even after two more winning seasons following that, he was fired the next season after just four games following a 1-3 start. The Eagles were able to make a big hire as they snagged former USC head coach Clay Helton in 2022 and while it has been an average start with a pair of 6-7 seasons, brand new systems were put into place on both sides and those take time so this could be the breakout year they have been looking forward to for a while. The offense brings back only five starters after having eight return in each of the previous two seasons but there is a lot of talent and experience. It will be up to quarterback JC French to continue to lead a potent spread passing attack. The offensive line is weak and will have to learn quickly on the fly but four of the projected starters know the system. Eight starters are back on defense that has not been great but they are loaded up front and can make a big move up the rankings. It is a tough nonconference slate but they get Boise St. at home and arguably their four toughest conference games are all at home and the get the two worst teams in the East on the road.Georgia State Panthers 7-6 ~ 3-5 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6It was a rough start for Georgia St. in its first four years at the FBS level where it went 10-39. After spending seven years in South Carolina, Georgia St. hired Shawn Elliott as their head coach in 2017 and while there were some ups and downs, he produced five winning records in his seven seasons before resigning in February to go back to South Carolina. He did leave on a winning note as after starting 6-1, the Panthers lost their last five regular season games but defeated Utah St. 45-22 in the Idaho Potato Bowl. New head coach Dell McGee spent the last eight years at Georgia as the run game coordinator and he comes into a tough situation. Georgia St. is No. 113 in the country in experience and brings back only four offensive starters. The Eagles lose quarterback Darren Grainger who is No. 2 in passing yards in program history as well as their top receiver and top running back. Additionally, four offensive line starters have to be replaced. They are better off on defense but not by much as they lose three of their top five tacklers and they do have significant holes on all three levels while breaking in a new system with a new defensive coordinator. The nonconference schedule is not bad but the SBC schedule is brutal with all four road games against contenders in their divisions.Old Dominion Monarchs 6-7 ~ 5-3 SBC ~ 7-6-0 ATS ~ 6-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6Old Dominion has had only one winning season since coming up to the FBS level in 2014 as it went 10-3 in 2016 but it has had some success of late. The Monarchs had one of the worst two-year stretches you will ever see as they went 1-11 in 2019 and then completely shut football down during the 2020 COVID year but did make it to a bowl game the following year and again last season but lost both of those. It is a good building block but they bring back only 10 starters although they brought back just nine starters last season and were the fifth least experienced team in the country yet went to a bowl game so strange things can happen. The problem this year is that they face the second toughest schedule in the conference. Six starters are back on offense led by quarterback Grant Wilson who was fairly solid and should be better after 11 starts. Three running backs rushed for 606, 609 and 637 yards and he was one of those with the other two gone. The defense has been the issue as they have not allowed fewer than 27 ppg since 2010 and that likely will not change this year. They face four nonconference teams that are likely to go bowling so an 0-4 start runs into back-to-back road games. They get Appalachian St. on the road and have to face two of the top teams from the West.Southern Miss Golden Eagles 3-9 ~ 2-6 SBC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6Southern Miss opened last season with a win over Alcorn St. of the FCS and then went on to lose its next seven games, five of those by double digits but there was no quit as the Golden Eagles won their next two games despite no chance to go to a bowl before getting blown out by Mississippi St. and Troy to end the season. Despite some solid teams over the years, they have reached 10 wins only once since 1989 and have won exactly three games in three of the last four seasons. This is the fourth season for head coach Will Hall and he is likely on the hot seat but his one saving grace is that he brought in the best recruiting class of any team in the SBC so that could string on another year if thing do not go completely right. Southern Miss brings back just four starters on offense and it loses their starting quarterback but that is not a bad thing. They brought in Florida St. transfer Tate Rodemaker who does not have a ton of experience but played with and against great talent. The defense regressed by over 12 ppg last season as they were crushed by injuries but they got more experience from that which will help this season. Southern Miss has a chance to go 3-1 in nonconference games and the SBC is not too bad as they miss Appalachian St. and do not face a single team off a bye.Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks 2-10 ~ 0-8 SBC ~ 5-8-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 6Louisiana-Monroe has been a bottom feeder in the SBC since joining in 2001 as it has won five or more games only four times and none one not time since 2012 which was the only season they have ever been to a bowl game. The recent stretch has been brutal as the Warhawks went 0-10 in the 2020 COVID year and followed that up with a pair of 4-8 campaigns. Last season, they opened 2-0 including a win over Army but closed the season with 10 straight losses and ended up getting doubled up in scoring margin (17.3-34.9). Louisiana-Monroe is just 5-26 in the conference over this four-year stretch and it is not going to get much better this year. Head coach Terry Bowden could not turn things around and now it is up to Bryant Vince who has one year of head coaching experience when he went 7-6 at UAB as an interim head coach. The offense brings back their leading rusher and one offensive lineman and that is it. The quarterback situation is a mess and their leading retuning receiver had only 71 yards last season. The defense was abysmal and there is not enough talent to muster any improvement to make up for the offense. Making it worse, they are at Texas and Auburn and they will be significant underdogs in every SBC game. A game against FCS Jackson St. to open the season could be the only win.

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2024 Southeastern Conference Football Preview

Thursday, Aug 01, 2024

2024 Southeastern Conference PreviewRegular Season Win Totals and SEC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)Georgia: 10.5 Over -125 Under +105/+190 SEC WinnerTexas: 10.5 Over +150 Under -180/+320 SEC WinnerOle Miss: 9.5 Over -115 Under -105/+650 SEC WinnerAlabama: 9.5 Over +120 Under -140/+750 SEC WinnerLSU: 9 Over -120 Under +100/+1,000 SEC WinnerMissouri: 9.5 Over +135 Under -160/+1,800 SEC WinnerTennessee: 8.5 Over -170 Under +145/+1,600 SEC WinnerTexas A&M: 8.5 Over -120 Under +100/+1,400 SEC WinnerAuburn: 7.5 Over +125 Under -145/+6,000 SEC WinnerOklahoma: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+3,000 SEC WinnerKentucky: 6.5 Over -115 Under -105/+10,000 SEC WinnerArkansas: 4.5 Over -110 Under -110/+25,000 SEC WinnerFlorida: 4.5 Over -155 Under +130/+12,000 SEC WinnerSouth Carolina: 5.5 Over -115 Under -105/+12,000 SEC WinnerMississippi State: 4 Over -150 Under +130/+40,000 SEC WinnerVanderbilt: 3 Over -125 Under +105/+100,000 SEC WinnerCoaching ChangesAlabama: Nick Saban Out ~ Kalen DeBoer InMississippi St.: Zach Arnett Out ~ Jeff Lebby InTexas A&M: Jimbo Fisher Out ~ Mike Elko InGeorgia Bulldogs 13-1 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 7Georgia was cruising along as it posted a perfect 12-0 regular season and was well on its way to try and win a third straight National Championship but was upset by Alabama 27-24 which knocked it out of the top four and put the Tide into the CFP. Georgia is the epitome of a team that reloads instead of rebuilds and that is the case again this season. They brought back 13 starters in 2021 and 10 starters in 2022 in their championship seasons while last season they had 13 starters back and were once again No. 1 throughout the season. The Bulldogs bring back 14 starters, their most since 2017, and they come in as the favorite once again. Quarterback Carson Beck will be a Heisman Trophy favorite and while they need to replace their top two rushers and three of their top four receivers, they will be just fine, especially having one of the best offensive lines in the country. The defense allowed its most points since 2000, but giving up 15.6 ppg is still pretty darn good and they will be better with seven starters back and they are loaded. They are stacked at all three levels and have the potential to match the 2021 unit. They open with Clemson, their only true nonconference test, while the SEC is no cakewalk with an early game at Alabama and later games at Texas and Mississippi.Texas Longhorns 12-2 ~ 8-1 Big 12 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8Texas is in its inaugural season in the SEC and while it is a significant upgrade from the Big 12, the Longhorns are expected to give Georgia all it can handle to claim the SEC. Their only regular season loss was against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry on a last second touchdown but they still made it to the CFP where they had a chance to beat Washington but failed with three straight incompletions in the final seconds from the 12-yard line. It was the first double-digit winning season since 2018 and this team looks to be back at the top for the foreseeable future. Texas has seven starters back on offense highlighted by quarterback Quinn Ewers but like Georgia, a lot has to be replaced around the quarterback as Texas loses its top rusher and top five receivers but it has an offensive line that rivals that of the Bulldogs. While the defense will not have to carry the offense, it could if needed even with what is considered a weak defensive line after losing their two best players. The Longhorns make up for it with top four units in the SEC at linebacker and secondary. They face an improved Colorado St. team before heading to Michigan in Week 2. The SEC slate is one of the best as of the top seven teams not including them, they miss five and while the one is Georgia, it is at home.Mississippi Rebels 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5The Rebels have been on the cusp of something really special in each of the last three seasons but have not been able to get over the hump as Alabama has gotten in the way twice in 2021 and 2023 and LSU stopped their 7-0 start in 2022. Head coach Lane Kiffin is brash and cocky to a lot of people but he wins and he has turned this program around with double-digit winning seasons two of the last three years as prior to this, Mississippi produced only three 10-win seasons since 1963. This edition of the Rebels could and should be the best of them all as they come into 2024 as the most experienced team in the SEC and No. 13 in the country thanks to 20 returning starters. Quarterback Jaxson Dart would arguably be the top quarterback in every other Power 4 Conference but the SEC is loaded at that position so he might be flying under the radar with a loaded receiving corps and a top offensive line in front of him. Defense has always been an issue in Oxford but last season the Rebels allowed their fewest points since 2014 and after bringing in a haul through the transfer portal, they should be even better. The nonconference slate is a joke and of the 10 teams with win totals of 7.5 or more, they face only three of those and two are at home while they avoid both Texas and Alabama.Alabama Crimson Tide 12-2 ~ 8-0 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 9-2-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6Alabama suffered an early season loss to Texas but did not slip up the remainder of the season, including a miracle win at Auburn, to make it to the CFP for the eighth time before getting upended by Michigan in overtime, showing how important it is to lose early if you are going to lose. That was the 16th consecutive season with double digit wins but those of course were all under head coach Nick Saban who called it a career as arguably the greatest college coach of all time and now Kalan DeBoer walks into the footsteps of a legend. He will not be intimidated as he has been in the national spotlight and while the pressure will be there to keep winning, he has the talent to do so. The offense revolves around quarterback Jalen Milroe but he loses 1,793 receiving yards from his top three receivers behind a fairly weak offensive line. Alabama has allowed 20 points or less in an incredible 16 straight seasons and that streak should continue despite losing a lot to the NFL. Their strength will be on the backend which is big in a conference loaded with quarterbacks. The schedule is one of the toughest in the country despite a fairly weak nonconference slate that includes a game at Wisconsin. They face six of the other top nine SEC teams while facing four teams coming off a bye week.LSU Tigers 10-3 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 11-1-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 6Despite winning the National Championship in 2019, head coach Ed Orgeron was let go two years later despite one of those being the unpredictable COVID season but they seem to have made the right hire with Brian Kelly who has put together a 20-7 record in his first two seasons. The problem has been losing to Florida St. in the first game of the season both years and there has been too much room to make up while being unable to defeat some of the elite teams ahead of them including last season when they went 1-3 against top 25 teams. Now comes the real challenge of replacing Heisman Trophy winner quarterback Jayden Daniels but they might have the guy in Garrett Nussmeier who threw for 395 yards on 31-45 passing and three touchdowns in the ReliaQuest Bowl win. The issue is losing two top receivers who combined for 2,746 yards and their leading rusher was Daniels with 1,134 yards so there will be a call for playmakers to go with a top offensive line. LSU regressed defensively, finishing No. 103 overall and No. 79 in scoring and this unit needs to improve with a new coordinator in place. LSU faces USC on a neutral field and UCLA at home and within the conference, they avoid Georgia and Texas while catching their three biggest tests all at home.Missouri Tigers 11-2 ~ 6-2 SEC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5Missouri had not had a winning season since 2018 although it finished exactly .500 during the regular season every season between 2019 and 2022 and while more of the same was expected last year, the Tigers were completely underrated and went off for an 11-2 campaign, their first double digit winning season since 2014. Eli Drinkwitz had a warm seat going into last season but that is long gone as he earned a contract extension through 2028 and his team is loaded once again to go along with a schedule that is ranked in the 60s and it is the easiest in the SEC so something special is possible. The offense brings back nine starters but the Tigers lose All American running back Cody Schrader who rushed for a school record 1,654 yards so that will be impossible to replace. Quarterback Brady Cook had a great season but was limited because of Schrader but now he will be asked to unleash it with the best receiving corps in the conference with his top five targets returning. The offensive line is not the best but extremely experienced. Missouri had their best defense since 2019 but lost five top five round picks yet should still be fine. Their first four games are at home, they will go 4-0 in the nonconference and they miss Georgia, Texas, Mississippi and LSU and face only one team off a bye.Tennessee Volunteers 9-4 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 5In 13 years from 2008-2020, Tennessee won nine games only twice as it went through five head coaches, albeit one of those was the final season for the legendary Phillip Fulmer, but the Volunteers seemed to have found their guy. Josh Heupel has put together a winning record in each of his first three seasons and the 27 total wins are the best in a three-game stretch since 2002-2004 so Rocky Top is buzzing with some long awaited excitement. This season will pose some challenges though as Tennessee comes in as the fourth least experienced team in the conference but a fairly easy schedule will at least bring them another winning record. The Volunteers took a big step back on offense and have to replace five starters but they are high on quarterback Nico Iamaleava who is an athletic duel threat that played great in the Citrus bowl last season. The defense has to replace six starters and the success of their season could rely on their back seven which is the third weakest in the conference, ahead of only Mississippi St. and Vanderbilt, in a conference with incredible quarterback talent. The only tough nonconference game is a neutral site contest against NC State and in the SEC, other than Alabama at home and Oklahoma and Georgia on the road, all other games are winnable.Texas A&M Aggies 7-6 ~ 4-4 SEC ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 9If you look up the biggest disappointment in the SEC over the last three years in the dictionary, the Aggies logo will be prominently displayed. They opened 2021 and 2022 No. 6 in the preseason AP poll only to lose early and often and finish outside the top 25 both seasons as they did again last season. Texas A&M has had some of the best recruiting classes in the country and even with the talent, it underachieved under fired head coach Jimbo Fisher but now they might have found the right fit with former Duke coach Mike Elko who brought out the best of not so talented rosters and he was the defensive coordinator here from 2018-2021. Nine starters are back on offense led by quarterback Connor Weigman who has made four starts each of the last two seasons, throwing 16 touchdowns and just two picks. He has an experienced trio of receivers and has one of the best running back groups in the conference. The defense also has nine starters back and should be much improved with Elko back in the mix as they will have a superior pass rush which will help out the secondary. Opening at home against Notre Dame and former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard will be interesting and in the SEC, they miss Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi while getting Texas, Missouri and LSU at home.Auburn Tigers 6-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8Auburn is coming off its third consecutive losing season, the first time it has had three straight losing seasons since 1975-1977. Granted, two of those losing seasons were due to bowl losses but they all count and the pressure will be on head coach Hugh Freeze but the 6-7 season in 2023 was better than the record indicates. Three of the losses were against Georgia, Mississippi and Alabama and all by one possession with the latter coming on a late miracle touchdown by the Tide although a 21-point loss at home to New Mexico St. as a 26-point favorite should never happen. They come into this season with the sixth most experienced team and have a schedule that is difficult in spots but doable. The Tigers bring back nine starters on offense led by quarterback Payton Thorne who was inconsistent but has three years of starting experience, the other two at Michigan St. The leading receiver last season had 394 yards but incoming freshman Cam Coleman will change that along with a pair of wideouts from the transfer portal. The defense improved by a touchdown from 2022 and should get even better. The Tigers will go 4-0 in the nonconference which offsets a tough SEC slate that includes Georgia, Alabama and Missouri, all on the road and Texas A&M and Oklahoma at home.Oklahoma Sooners 10-3 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8Oklahoma is the second team coming over from the Big 12 following a 10-3 season that could have been so much better. The Sooners opened 7-0 which included a win over Texas and they moved up to No. 6 in the AP Poll but then came a pair of consecutive road losses at Kansas and Oklahoma St. by a combined eight points. After a 6-7 record in 2022, head coach Brent Venables looks to have Oklahoma back where it belongs but a shift to the SEC and having to play the toughest conference schedule will be a true test. New coordinators on offense and defense could be challenging early on as well. The offense brings back seven starters but it has to replace quarterback Dillon Gabriel who transferred to Oregon so that is a big hit but the replacement is a big time recruit in sophomore Jackson Arnold. Even though they lose their top receiver, the Sooners have the third best group in the SEC. Oklahoma improved its defense by close to a touchdown and should improve more with eight starters back and the third season under Venables. The good news is the Sooners can break in the new parts with a weak nonconference schedule against Temple, Houston and Tulane. The bad news is that they play six of the top seven teams in the SEC and they miss Vanderbilt and Mississippi St.Kentucky Wildcats 7-6 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 10Head coach Mark Stoops was hired in 2013 coming into an awful situation and while it took him a couple years to make it his program, Kentucky has had a winning record in seven of the last eight seasons, the 2020 COVID year being the only exception. He has had two double digit winning seasons which is more impressive considering the Wildcats had only two in the history of the program prior to this, the last coming in 1977. A 5-0 start last season went south quickly as the Wildcats lost five of their next six games as the schedule ramped up but they made it to their eighth straight bowl game. Kentucky is the third most experienced team in the SEC but in this conference, sometimes that does not matter. There are eight starters back on offense and like many teams in the SEC, the Wildcats have to replace their quarterback with Devin Leary off to the NFL but there is high anticipation for Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff. They lose Ray Davis out of the backfield but DeaMonte Trayanum from Ohio St. should fill the void. 10 starters are back on defense after bringing five back each of the past three seasons and they will be better than last season. All four nonconference games are at home so they have only four road games but three are tough. They do avoid Alabama, LSU and Missouri.Arkansas Razorbacks 4-8 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8It was an absolute mess that former head coach Chad Morris left for current head coach Sam Pittman who was hired in 2020 and that weird season resulted in a 3-7 record but things turned around with a pair of winning season but then last year hit. The Razorbacks opened 2-0 against inferior teams but that was followed up by a six-game losing streak that included a stretch of four straight non-home games and they could not recover enroute to a 4-8 record. That six-game skid included five losses by one possession and three of those were against Alabama, Mississippi and LSU all away from home and on the season, they were only -1.3 ppg in scoring differential so it was not as bad as that record shows. The offense took a huge step back last season as they regressed by 144 ypg from 2022 despite KJ Jefferson at quarterback. He has departed and Boise St. transfer Taylen Green takes over. Arkansas has its top eight receivers back so the offense can get back to its 2022 numbers. The defense made up for it somewhat, improving by 108 ypg and have their most experienced unit returning since 2021. The Razorbacks have three winnable nonconference home games but travel to Oklahoma St. and while they miss Alabama and Georgia, they have to play seven of the other top nine in the SEC.Florida Gators 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 7-4-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8Florida opened last season 5-2 and cracked the AP Top 25 but the Gators went on to lose their final five games, four coming against ranked teams, to make it three straight losing seasons in Gainesville. The last time they had three straight losing seasons was 1945-1947 so this is a pretty big deal although the previous two seasons was due to a bowl loss prior to the rugged late schedule last year. Head coach Billy Napier is not on the hot seat as this has not been a complete debacle but he does need to turn this around sooner rather than later however we are not sure if this is the year. The offense took a small dip in yards but scoring has remained steady over the last three seasons and they should show some improvement with Graham Mertz now in his second season in this system after completing 73 percent of his passes with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions last year. They have the playmakers and overall have the No. 5 ranked preseason offense. The defense did nothing to help out the offense and it too has been flat over the last three seasons but has to improve and it should if key parts come together in the back seven. The Gators play the hardest schedule in the country with Miami, UCF and Florida St. in the nonconference and they play all the big boys in the SEC sans Alabama.South Carolina Gamecocks 5-7 ~ 3-5 SEC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8The Gamecocks had eight wins in 2022 which was their second straight winning season but they could not carry that over into last year as they had only 10 starters back. South Carolina opened the season 2-2 with wins over Furman of the FCS and a bad Mississippi St. team then came four straight losses but the Gamecocks battled back with three wins and could have become bowl eligible with a win over Clemson but lost 16-7 in the season finale. This team is close as it needs a few breaks and needs to avoid injuries that crushed both lines last season and it needs to find consistency on offense. South Carolina scored 20 or fewer points seven times while scoring 37 or more points five times with nothing in-between and now a quarterback needs to break away from the pack between transfers Robby Ashford and Davis Beville and redshirt freshman LaNorris Sellers. The top three receivers are gone so it is a young group and they will rely on Arkansas transfer running back Raheim Sanders, who rushed for 1,443 yards in 2022. The transfer portal is going to play a big role in improving a defense that has not been good since 2017. Clemson is the only tough nonconference game and in the SEC, the Gamecocks avoid Georgia and Texas from the top and get Mississippi, LSU and Missouri at home.Mississippi St. Bulldogs 5-7 ~ 1-7 SEC ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5College football lost a legend when Mississippi St. head coach Mike Leach passed away suddenly in December of 2022 after an 8-4 regular season and the Bulldogs beat Illinois 19-10 in the ReliaQuest Bowl in his honor. They hired Zach Arnett, who coached the bowl game, to take over and it lasted a total of 10 games as he was fired after a 51-10 loss to Texas A&M. Now on their third coach in less than two years, it will be up to former Oklahoma St. and Mississippi offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to find some stability in this program that Leach was forming and has had only one double digit winning season since the turn of the century. It will not be easy this season being the least experienced team in the conference as Mississippi St. brings back only five starters on each side of the ball. The offense regressed by close to 10 ppg but Lebby will serve as OC with a more high powered attack led by Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen. The leading rusher is gone, the top five receivers are gone and the entire offensive line is new. The defense will not be able to carry them as the Bulldogs lost nine of their top 12 tacklers and it is a big rebuild project. There are three possible nonconference home wins and within the conference, they miss Alabama and LSU but play six of the other top eight teams.Vanderbilt Commodores 2-10 ~ 0-8 SEC ~ 2-10-0 ATS ~ 8-3-1 O/UReturning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8Vanderbilt will be the consensus pick to finish in last place for a sixth straight season as the Commodores have compiled a 3-38 conference record the previous five seasons with those three wins coming by a combined 17 points. Vanderbilt has not had a winning overall record since 2013 and a winning SEC record since 2012 and those have been the only two years they finished in the AP Top 25 since 1948. It has been a long road of misery for the administration and the entire fanbase and that is going to continue again this season but they should show improvement after getting outscored by close to two touchdowns per game last season. The offense gets an upgrade with New Mexico St. transfer Diego Pavia taking over at quarterback after two very productive years with the Aggies. Three starters are back on the offensive line along with two transfers with big starting experience but they need to find a running game that averaged only 95 ypg on 3.3 ypc and have to replace their top three receivers. The defense is what has devastated them as they have allowed over 35 ppg each of the last four years so there is a lot of room for improvement. They have two winnable nonconference games with a game at Georgia St. being a swing game and they play five of the top seven teams in the SEC.

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