May Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

May Starting Pitching AL Overachievers

There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of May, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four American League starters which you’ll likely want to likely avoid supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable. 

Triston McKenzie – Cleveland Guardians

Triston McKenzie broke into the big leagues with big strikeout counts in 2020 and 2021 but so far in 2024 his K/9 is 8.5, the lowest of his career. This season and last season, walks have been a huge problem for McKenzie, including allowing 34 in just over 57 innings this season. McKenzie had a few rough April starts but he has a 3.06 ERA in six starts in May as Cleveland continues to control the AL Central. McKenzie has a 5.57 FIP in that span however and only six percent of his baserunners have scored. His BABIP is May is just .205 and while McKenzie has posted a low BABIP throughout his career, that is an exceptionally low mark. McKenzie has allowed 11 home runs in 11 starts and he has already faced the White Sox twice, in addition to facing the Athletics and Rockies for several favorable early season draws. 

Marcus Stroman – New York Yankees

After two solid seasons with the Cubs, Stroman received a two-year deal with the Yankees and so far the move has been a success with Stroman pitching well and the Yankees leading the AL East. Stroman’s numbers are pretty similar to the past two seasons in terms of strikeouts and walks, but his ERA is just 2.76 thanks a drop in his BABIP and a big rise in his strand rate with only 15 percent of baserunners scoring against him. A strong New York bullpen has helped to leave runners on the bases, but Stroman simply has had some good luck in the first two months of the season, particularly in May with a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts even with a weak 6.2 K/9. Stroman has stranded 94 percent of his baserunners in May, a rate that will be impossible to keep up over the rest of the season. 

Michael Lorenzen – Texas Rangers

A useful option as a starter or reliever and with some pinch hitting potential, Lorenzen has carried his weight bouncing around the league the past few seasons. He famously threw a no-hitter with the Phillies last August but eventually landed back in the bullpen. Due to injuries elsewhere in the rotation Lorenzen has been counted on to take regular turns in the Texas rotation and the results have been good with a 3.35 ERA in eight starts. Lorenzen has a worse than 2:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season and his month of May includes a 2.87 ERA but a 4.34 FIP. Lorenzen has turned in three quality starts in a row, but he has rarely had sustained runs of starting success in his career, something that isn’t likely to change at age 32. He recently left his last start with knee cramping and his season could unravel further from there. 

Griffin Canning – Los Angeles Angels

It has been a miserable season for the Angels but in the month of May, Griffing Canning has put together a run of five solid starts, pitching at least five innings while allowing three or fewer runs in each. He struggled mightily in April and still owns a 5.08 season ERA but in May it was just 2.60. His FIP in May was 5.30, however, seventh highest among all qualified AL starters. Canning still has poor strikeout and walk rates and few pitchers have a worse HR/9 than Canning in his career at 1.56, a rate he has even topped so far this season. Canning has only had 36 percent groundballs this season and is on pace for his worst K/9 in his career at just 6.5, compared to 9.0 in his career. Canning and the Angels won’t command strong valuations, but the recent run of success is more than likely to be short positive blip on Canning’s season.