August Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

 

August Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of August, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four National League starters which you should be cautious with supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable. 

Martin Perez – San Diego Padres

Martin Perez has been a useful starter for the Padres since joining the team from the Pirates in August. In five starts with San Diego, Perez has a 2.70 ERA but a 5.19 FIP as it has been a misleading run of success alongside San Diego’s great late season run in the NL West standings. Perez has still allowed six home runs in his five starts for San Diego but only eight runs in total despite allowing 22 hits in just over 26 innings of work. Only one of the five starts for Perez with San Diego has come against a likely playoff team for a favorable August path that has helped his results. Perez has a 6.3 K/9 in his career and a 4.45 ERA and there should be no expectation for his upcoming results to match his strong August returns. 

Shota Imanaga – Chicago Cubs

30-year-old rookie Shota Imanaga made a huge early splash for the Cubs, going 5-0 with the Cubs 7-0 in his first seven starts. Chicago is 18-6 in Imanaga starts and the Cubs will face favorite pricing in many of his upcoming outings as Chicago looks to stay on the edge of the NL wild card conversation. Imanaga allowed 10 runs against the Mets in June to put a huge dent in his numbers but in his last six starts his ERA is 3.72 with a 5.12 FIP as he has not matched his early season pace. Imanaga has allowed nine home runs in his last six starts and his K/9 is down to just 7.9 in that run of games. Imanaga has slightly worse season numbers at home, and he hasn’t pitched more than 160 innings for Yokohama since 2019, a number he’ll likely reach by early September this season. 

Nick Martinez – Cincinnati Reds

After mediocre results with the Texas Rangers early in his career, Nick Martinez pitched in Japan for four seasons. Martinez returned to MLB in 2022 mostly pitching as a reliever with the Padres the past two seasons and finding some success as useful option for situational relief outings and occasional spot starts. With Cincinnati he has pitched well and was moved back to a starting role in August. After two scoreless outings in early August, Martinez has looked like a marginal starter in his last three outings as his ERA is 6.75 with a 6.54 FIP, allowing 11 runs including four home runs, while posting just eight strikeouts. Martinez has a career K/9 of 6.4 and a career HR/9 of 1.3 with a career FIP of 4.74 and that should be the expectation if the Reds keep Martinez in the rotation down the stretch. 

David Peterson – New York Mets

David Peterson owns an incredible 8-1 record, and the Mets are 12-3 in his starts as New York tries to stay in contact in the NL Wild Card race. Peterson has a 4.20 FIP this season next to his 2.85 ERA and his K/9 is below 7.0. His BB/9 is above 4.0 in his career, and he has had some great fortune in his 85 innings with a .278 BABIP and a strand rate of nearly 82 percent. In August Peterson has allowed only six earned runs in five starts for a 1.71 ERA but his FIP is 3.17 and his xFIP is 4.14 as a lot has gone his way in a small sample of starts that included facing three of MLB’s worst teams.