2025 ACC Basketball Postseason Picture

The ACC picture is taking form with a few surprise contenders in the current standings with only seven of 18 teams in the league sitting above .500 in conference play at this point. All schedules are not created equal and there is some value in projecting how the next few weeks will play out. 

 

In ESPN’s current bracketology, only five ACC teams would make the NCAA Tournament. Only 15 teams will even make the ACC Tournament as well. The conference isn’t rated incredibly well relative to the other power conferences right now but last season the conference showed up in the postseason, going 12-5 collectively with a Final Four team, three Elite 8 teams, and four Sweet 16 teams. 

 

Here is a look at the top postseason threats in the current ACC picture: 

 

The Favorite – Duke (10-0): Duke is perfect in the first half of the ACC season even with a few recent close calls. The Blue Devils face North Carolina for the first time this season in the coming week and they have not yet faced Clemson this season as the 10-0 start has come through the #17 ranked ACC schedule so far. Duke’s numbers are impressive, and the Blue Devils also have non-conference wins over Arizona and Auburn. Getting to play Louisville in the ACC opener may prove to have been an advantage while the Blue Devils have road wins vs. SMU and Wake Forest as well as that opening win at Louisville. Duke is on track to be a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018-19. 

 

Next in Line – Louisville (8-1): Louisville is in a major transition season with Pat Kelsey taking over and the roster featuring numerous newcomers. The Cardinals struggled a bit in a difficult non-conference schedule, but the team has found its form of late rolling off nine straight wins including eight in a row in ACC play. That includes wins over North Carolina and Clemson at home, plus road wins over Florida State, Pittsburgh, and SMU. Seven of eight ACC wins have come by double-digit margins of victory as well. Louisville’s only game with Duke was the opener in Durham back in early December, a game the Cardinals likely would be more competitive in if those teams played right now. The remaining schedule is quite favorable for the Cardinals as if Duke slips up twice, Louisville is a threat to move up as this team should be favored in every remaining regular season game after reaching 8-1 through the #1 rated ACC schedule so far. 

 

Tourney Bound - Clemson (9-1): This is Brad Brownell’s 15th season and Clemson, and the Tigers have only made the NCAA Tournament four times. Last season was a breakthrough, earning a #6 seed and delivering a run to the Elite 8, including nice wins over Baylor and Arizona before losing to Alabama to fall short of a Final Four run. This year’s team has similar numbers and sits two overtime losses away from being 19-2 instead of 17-4. The Tigers have only one loss in ACC play but it came to Louisville, who looks likely to pass Clemson in the standings given the remaining paths. Clemson hasn’t faced Duke or North Carolina yet and will have challenging games ahead in the coming weeks facing NC State, Florida State, and SMU on the road in February. A non-conference win over Kentucky should keep Clemson in the NCAA Tournament picture provided the team produces a solid closing run in the ACC, with a risk for a bad loss present in this year’s conference race. 

 

Trouble Brewing – North Carolina (6-3): The Tar Heels were a possession away from winning the 2022 NCAA Championship and then didn’t even make the tournament in 2023. Last season North Carolina had a strong 17-3 ACC season and made a Sweet 16 run, though as a #1 seed in the Big Dance, expectations were higher and the tournament exit came painfully in a two-point result, while North Carolina watched nearby ACC rivals Duke and NC State advance further. This year’s team already has eight losses, and they will still face Duke twice, Pittsburgh twice, plus games vs. Florida State, Clemson, and NC State in a difficult remaining ACC path. Losses to Stanford and Wake Forest look potentially problematic and while all the non-conference losses came against quality teams, there is a complete dearth of high quality wins, with zero top 30 wins and only two top 50 wins against UCLA and SMU. Right now, North Carolina is right on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but this team likely needs to get a win over Duke to get comfortably on the right side of the cut line as there are likely to be a few more ACC losses ahead. 

 

Wild Card – Wake Forest (7-2): Steve Forbes has yet to make the NCAA Tournament at Wake Forest even with a 13-7 ACC season in 2021-22 and a winning record in ACC play last season. Wake Foerst doesn’t have any bad losses this season though losing by 15 against Xavier could prove to be a comparison problem among potential bubble teams. Wake Foerst has a nice win over Michigan from November and has posted a strong 7-2 start to the ACC season with the losses in competitive games vs. Clemson and Duke. The Demon Deacons beat North Carolina last week and have a big opportunity this week at Louisville, before hosting Pittsburgh over the weekend. If Wake Forest can split those games, the early February path is favorable and getting to 14-6 or better in ACC play is realistic with the toughest remaining games at SMU in mid-February and then at Duke in early March. Last year’s team had a pretty strong case to be included, and it will likely be another close call for the Demon Deacons on Selection Sunday. 

 

Crashing Out – Pittsburgh (4-4): The Panthers were a tough omission from the 2024 NCAA Tournament with a 12-8 record in league play, surging late after starting just 1-5. That included a win at Duke, while sweeping NC State and beating Wake Forest. There were a handful of bad losses however plus a weak non-conference schedule. This season Pittsburgh had a 9-2 non-conference season with only quality losses and a few solid wins beating West Virginia, LSU, and Ohio State in a true road game. That put the Panthers on the right side of the NCAA Tournament picture, but after staring 3-0 in ACC play, the Panthers have lost four of the past five. Last week’s overtime home loss to Clemson was a damaging miss and the Panthers have a tough stretch of games in the next two weeks facing North Carolina twice plus road games vs. Wake Forest and SMU. Pittsburgh still must play Louisville on the road in March after losing to the Cardinals at home and it is hard to envision the Panthers surviving the upcoming schedule still sitting on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. 

 

Dark Horse – SMU (6-3): SMU had a great first ACC season in football and is proving worthy in basketball as well. The Mustangs didn’t do enough in the non-conference season to warrant NCAA Tournament consideration, but they will have the chance to make some noise in the ACC standings. In the 6-3 conference start there aren’t any high-end wins, losing the three toughest games including two home games. The toughest remaining games vs. Pittsburgh, Wake Forest, and Clemson are all in Dallas however as a great February run isn’t impossible for this team and doing so would likely give SMU quality bubble comparison ammunition. This team has appealing shooting numbers and benefits from doubling up games with fellow ACC newcomers California and Stanford. Clemson didn’t make the NCAA Tournament two years ago while finishing 14-6 in conference play, but it would be very difficult to leave out a team that finishes 15-5 or better, and while that would be on the high-end of the possible outcomes for SMU, it seems possible with the toughest games already completed.