June Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of June, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four National League starters which you’ll likely want to likely avoid supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable. 

Aaron Nola – Philadelphia Phillies

It has been a comeback season for Aaron Nola, one of the NL’s top pitchers from 2017-2019 before mostly average results in the past few seasons for the Phillies. Nola has a 3.39 ERA in 101 innings so far even with his worst K/9 since his rookie season in 2015 at just 8.0. Nola has a .251 BABIP this season, matching his career low as a lot has gone right for Nola so far in 2024. Nola had great issues with home runs last season and his groundball rate continues to be much lower than in his peak seasons, yet he has survived with only 13 home runs allowed in his 16 starts so far in 2024. Nola has allowed at least three runs seven times this season and June has been by far his worst month of the 2024 season. For his career, Nola has been a worse second half pitcher and since mid-May his FIP is 4.11 with a 7.3 K/9 even while he is 4-1 in decisions.  

Luis Severino – New York Mets 

It has been a nice comeback season for Luis Severino, moving from the Bronx to Queens. Severino was an elite starter for the Yankees in 2017 and 2018 before injuries derailed his career but has a 3.29 ERA in 15 starts for the Mets in 2024. With a career K/9 of 9.5, Severino has been a different pitcher this season with a 7.1 K/9 and much of his success this season has been built on not allowing many home runs, while featuring a low .252 BABIP. Moving to Citi Field as his home park should improve his home run numbers but the current pace may not be sustainable. Severino’s season FIP is 3.93, in line with his career average, and Severino’s success while the Mets have returned to relevance may not last. In June Severino is 2-0 with a 2.73 ERA but with a 5.8 K/9 and a 3.91 FIP. He has faced losing teams in all four June starts so far and like many Mets pitchers before him, he has great home numbers and shaky road splits. In May Severino had a 4.97 ERA and ultimately the rest of his season is more likely to line up somewhere in-between his May and June splits rather than continuing his current recent pace of excellence. 

Andrew Abbott – Cincinnati Reds

Abbott has seen his K/9 fall from 9.9 last season to 7.2 this season. His HR/9 is 1.6, one of the highest in the NL yet so far this season his ERA is 3.41, nearly a half-run improvement over last season. His season FIP is 4.97 however, an alarming gap that suggests Abbott has been overachieving significantly this season. The Great American Ballpark is one of the best hitting parks in the NL and Abbott has pitched nearly 60 percent of his innings on the road at this point in the season. Abbott is 4-1 in June even as the Reds continue to post mediocre results and Abbott has only one quality start this month. Abbott has a 5.33 FIP in June compared to a 3.71 ERA and a huge red flag is that he has allowed 15 walks in fewer than 27 innings this month. Abbott is just 25 years of age, and the left-hander is an intriguing talent that may have a very bright future, but he likely hasn’t deserved his current numbers in 2024, particularly in the last month. 

Jake Irvin – Washington Nationals

Irvin made 24 starts last season for Washington and he is 27 years old, drafted in the 4th round back in 2018 as he is more of a journeyman than an up-and-coming prospect. He had marginal numbers last season for Washington but has improved considerably this season for a surprisingly competitive Nationals team. Irvin has cut down on his walks significantly compared to last season but the biggest difference is his HR/9 falling from 1.5 to 0.9 from last season to this season, something that is mostly luck in the small sample. Irvin has a similar K/9 and BABIP to last season and is not a high groundball rate pitcher, but he has managed to allow only nine home runs in 16 starts. Irvin has a 2.48 ERA for excellent returns in 29 innings in June 2024, but his FIP is a more realistic 3.57 in that span. His BB/9 has climbed in June while he has managed to strand nearly 88 percent of his baserunners. The Nationals have played nearly .500 ball this season to beat expectations, but it will be a long shot if Irvin finishes on the NL ERA leaderboard where he currently resides as he has the second highest FIP and the fourth lowest K/9 of the current top 12.