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An esteemed veteran of the sports betting industry, Kyle Hunter is a frequent guest on radio shows, podcasts and videos. $1,000 per game bettors have made $243,000 following Kyle's plays since 2010. Kyle is the type to grind away and try to help clients in every way he can.

Active since: 2009

Location: Columbus, OH

Kyle Hunter has been handicapping professionally since late 2009. Kyle has a degree in finance and he specialized in statistics. Kyle has the ability to follow important trends and statistics, and discount other trends that aren’t predictive. The data and trends can be your friends and Kyle knows how to use them to spot value.

Kyle started in the finance industry and moved over to the sports betting world. His knowledge of the sports betting market is a major strength. The ability to buy low and sell high on teams can really help turn a profit in the sports betting industry.

One area where Kyle pays close attention is to tendencies of umpires or referees. While some handicappers overlook this important information, Kyle keeps databases and detailed information in this area. Knowing these tendencies can keep you a step ahead of the game! Why not take advantage of every extra edge you can find?

Kyle's plays are rated 3 star - regular play, 4 star - upgraded play, and 5 star - top play. Kyle's "Big Game Hunter" big play selections have been highly sought after for many years. You will receive a lot of totals plays from Kyle since that is a specialty. Being able to stay in front of trends and tempo changes is a valuable skill.

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MLB - Moneyline - Sat, Apr 19

MLB Saturday Night CASH 81-42 Last 123 MLB!

81-42 in my last 123 MLB plays. This MLB Saturday Night CASH is a moneyline selection for Saturday night. Padres/Astr...

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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Futures Value Plays

Tuesday, Mar 18, 2025

It’s a great time of the year to be a sports fan and a sports bettor. March Madness brings all the drama, and we have just about reached the start of that great four days of sports on Thursday-Sunday of the first weekend. I wanted to take a look at a few Sweet 16 Futures that I believe have some value before we tip off the tournament. The price listed is the best price I found by searching 8 different major sportsbooks. When you are betting futures, always make sure you shop around for the best price! Kentucky To Reach Sweet 16 (+120) The Kentucky Wildcats are expected to get Lamont Butler back for the NCAA Tournament. Butler’s importance cannot be overstated because he is a great ball handler and creator. Kentucky’s spot in the bracket isn’t a bad one at all either. Illinois is a wildly inconsistent team that can’t be trusted as the sixth seed. Troy doesn’t have the scoring upside of some other 13 or 14 seeds. I think this is a buy low spot for the Kentucky Wildcats. Marquette to Reach Sweet 16 (+320) The Marquette Golden Eagles rank a solid 15th at Shot Quality in adjusted Shot Quality rating. Marquette has been a bit unlucky throughout the season. This team underachieved their preseason expectations, but they still have the upside potential in them. Shaka Smart has been a good coach in the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico is their Round of 64 matchup, and the Mountain West is 13-33 ATS in the Round of 64. Michigan State would be their second round game. The Spartans are clearly a good team, but I think their lack of shot making could hold them back. North Carolina to Reach Sweet 16 (+700) Should North Carolina have made the NCAA Tournament. No. Still, I think there is value here. The Tar Heels take on San Diego State in the First Four. The Mountain West cannot be trusted. North Carolina would then take on an Ole Miss team that hasn’t consistently looked like a top team. Iowa State is the #3 seed here, and the Cyclones are shorthanded without Gilbert. The Tar Heels have heard everyone saying they shouldn’t have made it this week. North Carolina’s team talent ranking is very high. This wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen a team go from Dayton to the Sweet 16. Wisconsin to Reach Sweet 16 (+100) This is probably my least favorite of the group, but I think this is a buy low spot on Wisconsin as well. Montana in the first round is a great matchup for Wisconsin. The Big Sky Conference has consistently been overmatched in the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin just went 7/39 from 3 point range against Michigan, but I’m confident their offense will look a lot better against Montana. Wisconsin then would play the winner of VCU/BYU. That isn’t an easy game, but Wisconsin would be favored in either matchup.

3 NCAA Tournament Trends/Angles To Watch

Tuesday, Mar 18, 2025

NCAA Tournament 3 Angles/Trends To WatchThe NCAA Tournament is finally here! As a huge sports fan, I can confidently say this is my favorite sporting event of the year. The first four days of March Madness are as exciting as you get in the world of sports. Today, I want to take a look at three angles/trends I think you should keep in mind when placing your bets during the NCAA Tournament this year. The Mountain West is 26-53 ATS (32.9%) in their last 79 NCAA Tournament games. Mountain West teams are 13-33 ATS in the Round of 64. San Diego State made that long run a couple years ago, but outside of that the Mountain West has absolutely been burning bettors money for many years. The Mountain West is clearly worse this year than it was a year ago. New Mexico takes on Marquette in Cleveland. Marquette certainly has the higher upside, but neither team has been consistent this season. San Diego State takes on North Carolina in the First Four game in Dayton. North Carolina has a massive talent advantage in that one as well. Will the Tar Heels have a chip on their shoulder? Be careful before you trust the MWC in general. NCAA Tournament with a spread of six points or more and a total of 137 or higher are 197-143 to the under (57.9% unders) since 2005. What is the thought process here? These are games that are less likely to go to overtime. They are also less likely to be a fouling fest in the last minute or two. These have done especially well in the early rounds of the tournament. There are going to be a bunch of matches to this angle this season. Importantly, I would definitely never bet an angle like this blindly. If it is a matchup of two teams who are going to push tempo all the way and get a bunch of trips to the line, that is one where I would sit out on following this angle. #11 and #12 Seeds facing an opponent with an ATS Win (Cover) Rate of 55% or higher on the year- these teams are 67-41 ATS (62% ATS). The #11 and #12 seeds have been profitable for bettors in general in the past decade, but when the opposition has been a great cover team through the year this angle has been even better. The middle of the brackets in terms of seeds have been valuable to underdog bettors. There are top teams in the #1 and #2 seeds, but in the #5 and #6 areas we’ve often found some inconsistent teams who aren’t worthy of laying the number of points they are laying. Remember these angles are just one part of the handicap, but I think all three of these are good to keep in mind when getting set for the NCAA Tournament this year.

College Hoops: Four Teams to Sell High ATS

Tuesday, Feb 25, 2025

March is almost here! It’s a great time of the year to be a college basketball bettor as well as a college basketball fan. Let’s take a look at four teams that might be good to sell high on when betting against the number going forward. Clemson Tigers (17-10 ATS) The Clemson Tigers have been absolutely on fire. Why would anyone want to sell them right now? First, the market is extremely high on Clemson based on their recent results. It is hard to continually beat the number when this large of an adjustment is being made. Second, Brad Brownell’s teams have not been good against the number in March. The ACC is much weaker than it was in the past, but Clemson is going to be laying some really big numbers in the next couple weeks. Clemson has a 22-5 record and just winning these games and improving their record should be enough for the Tigers. Shot Quality ranks Clemson as the luckiest team in the ACC so far this season. Middle Tenn State (13-10 ATS) MTSU sits third in the Conference USA standings. They rate 18th in the nation in luck factor according to KenPom. MTSU has a tough road double at New Mexico State and at UTEP in their next couple games. They then must come home to host Liberty, who I believe is the best team in CUSA. MTSU is dead last in Conference USA in defensive rebounding percentage. The Blue Raiders also struggle from the free throw line. They have had loads of close wins in the last couple months. I don’t think they’ll keep getting all the bounces the rest of the way. Robert Morris Colonials (22-6 ATS) If you’ve been betting Robert Morris all the way through the season, you are rich right now. If you haven’t, I think it is too late to join in the party. A 22-6 ATS record is going to get the attention of oddsmakers and the betting marketplace regardless of what conference you are in, and I’ve started to see these lines being adjusted. Robert Morris only has one regular season game left, but I think fading them ATS in the Horizon League Tournament could be profitable as well. This is clearly a good team, but I don’t think there is a large gap from the top of the Horizon League to teams right in the middle. 4. Michigan State Spartans (17-9-1 ATS) Tom Izzo is a great coach, so it is a little scary fading him going into the late season period. Still, Michigan State has been playing at its peak of late in my opinion. Michigan State doesn’t have outside shooters, and they are reliant on getting to the hoop and getting to the free throw line. The Spartans don’t force many turnovers on defense. Michigan State plays a tough schedule the rest of the regular season. This is probably my least favorite of the fades, but their advanced numbers do suggest regression.

College Basketball: 4 Teams to Buy Low ATS

Tuesday, Feb 25, 2025

March is right around the corner! It’s a great time of the year to be a college basketball bettor as well as a college basketball fan. Let’s take a look at four teams that might be good to buy low on when betting against the number going forward. Seattle Redhawks (9-14-1 ATS) Seattle is the single most unlucky team according to KenPom’s luck factor. Seattle also ranks as very unfortunate in the Shot Quality luck ratings. Seattle has a high upside, but they haven’t played consistently enough. Seattle led Grand Canyon on the road for much of the game before losing by nine. They also beat the Washington Huskies on the road. They dod a good job forcing turnovers, and they are good on the defensive glass. They get home games against Cal Baptist and Grand Canyon in the next week. St. Louis Billikens (9-16 ATS) St. Louis has two elite mid-major players in Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope. Avila has lower shooting percentages this year than he did a year ago, but I think he can still take over a game with his play making ability. St. Louis is rated as a bit unlucky from the advanced numbers. The Billikens do struggle with turnovers on offense, so I would look to back them primarily against teams who aren’t very good at forcing turnovers. The market is low on this team, and I want to be above the market here. Oregon Ducks (12-15 ATS) Oregon won at Wisconsin this past weekend. The Ducks have been inconsistent this year, but I really like Dana Altman and his ability to have teams playing their best basketball in March. If you filter coaches ATS records to only the last six games of the regular season and then the postseason, Altman ranks among the five most profitable coaches. Altman’s teams have looked far worse than this Oregon team and still been strong ATS late in the season. Oregon has play makers and the Ducks have proven capable of winning. I’m looking for spots to bet on Oregon. Sam Houston State Bearkats (8-17 ATS) Sam Houston is 10th in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage offense. Sam Houston has taken some really unfortunate bounces this year though. They are easily the unluckiest team in the conference. Sam Houston has lost three overtime games in Conference USA action (zero OT wins). The Bearkats showed a lot recently in wins against Jacksonville State (first in the league) and on the road at Western Kentucky. Sam Houston is 4-11 in CUSA action, but all 11 losses have come by single digits. They have been very close, and I like their chances of some positive regression down the stretch.

College Hoops Overall Betting- Last 30 Days Trends

Friday, Jan 24, 2025

College Hoops Overall Betting Last 30 Days TrendsWhat has happened in the last 30 days in college basketball? I’m looking only from a bettors perspective at the whole picture of the college basketball landscape. Let’s see what has gone on and then take a look at whether we can gain any edges going forward. Last 30 Days Betting StatsHome Teams 580-634 ATS (47.8%)Road Teams 634-580 ATS (52.2%) Underdogs 612-606 ATS (50.4%) Home Underdogs 179-201 ATS (47.1%) 612 Overs 606 Unders (50.2%)Overtime Games 67-10 Overs (87% Overs) Non-Overtime Games 596-545 Unders (52.2% Unders) Let’s start with the totals. It should come as no surprise that games that go to overtime go over the total at a very high rate. If you could predict which games were going over the total, you could be rich! That’s obviously very hard to predict. On the other hand, you can try to predict which games won’t go to overtime and that helps a lot with knowing where there can be opportunities to bet the under. Unders where there is a large point spread have done better than unders in general for many years. That is because there is far less of a chance of a late fouling fest, and a much smaller chance of overtime. I also do consider overs a bit more when the point spread is between 5-8 points because of the increased chances of a late foul fest. On the ATS front, home teams did very poorly in the last 30 days. Is it an aberration? They won’t continue to do this poorly ATS consistently, but road teams have had the edge over home teams in most recent seasons. There is quite a bit of evidence that home court advantage is overvalued by the betting markets. There are obviously exceptions to the rule where some specific home courts are worth a lot, but on the whole home court advantage is being overstated.There are about five weeks left in the regular season. As we grow closer to the end of the season, I would try to keep an eye out for teams who have little to play for and seem to be just going through the motions. The oddsmakers are good at their job, but there are always some edges to be found.

Four NCAA BB Teams to Sell High

Friday, Jan 24, 2025

Four NCAA BB Teams To Sell High Betting on sports can be similar to buying and selling in the stock market. You want to look to buy teams when they are low and sell teams when the market is too high on them. I want to take a look at four teams that have done well for bettors so far this year. These are teams where it might makes sense to try to sell high while you have a chance. UC Davis (10-7-1 ATS) UC Davis is 7th out of 364 teams in the country in KenPom’s luck factor. They are also among the luckiest teams based on Shot Quality’s data. UC Davis ranks 247th in the country in shot selection. They also rank a poor 309th in shot selection allowed. They are very heavily relying on forcing turnovers to keep their defensive efficiency numbers up. UC Davis has had a friendly schedule to this point in the conference too. That will not be the case going forward. UC Davis plays their next four games on the road. UC Riverside and UC Irvine are the next two up on the schedule. I’ll look for spots to fade UC Davis. 2. Middle Tennessee State (11-4-2 ATS) MTSU has been a covering machine this year, but I don’t think that will continue the rest of the way. Middle Tennessee State is 21st in KenPom’s luck factor. The Blue Raiders play four of their next six games on the road. There is definitely some luck involved in 3 point FG percentage defense. MTSU is allowing opponents to shoot just 30.2% (40th best in the country) from long range so far this year. They are 274th in the country in open 3 rate allowed though. MTSU has been poor at defending the 3 point line in recent seasons. I think this number will regress toward the mean. Cleveland State (12-6 ATS) The Cleveland State Vikings have had a really good season. I think this team is well coached and they are improved. I think that the market has gotten a bit high on them though. Cleveland State is 9-1 in a Horizon League that is a bit weaker than it has normally been. Cleveland State relies on turnovers and offensive rebounds to do a lot of their damage. This is a team that has played the #312 strength of schedule so far this season. The road games at Fort Wayne and Northern Kentucky will be good tests for them in the upcoming days. St. Bonaventure (14-5 ATS) The Bonnies are a pretty good team, but there is a point spread tax on them at this point after this kind of covering stretch. DaSante Bowen is still out and Chance Moore missed their last game too. The Bonnies lack the depth necessary to keep playing at such a high level without multiple key starters. They are giving up nearly 1.11 points per possession in A10 play. Their defense that is normally a strength is weaker than average this season.

Four CBB Teams To Buy Low

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024

The college hoops season is more than a month old. The teams have played enough now that we can sit back and look for regression candidates in one way or the other. I want to take a look at teams who could positively regress in the near future. These are teams where there are reasons to believe they are better than the marketplace has them rated. These are in no particular order. UAB Blazers (3-6 ATS) The UAB Blazers have been wildly inconsistent so far this year. They showed how good they can be with their 42-12 start against Southern Miss early in the year. They also lost to Longwood and Illinois State. Andy Kennedy is a good coach, and I think this team can be a money earner going forward. They are just 170th in effective field goal percentage offense, but Shot Quality has them at 23rd in the nation in shot selection. They have been missing a lot of open looks. Opponents are also shooting nearly 80% from the free throw line against UAB. That will regress toward the mean. Boise State Broncos (2-6 ATS) The Boise State Broncos haven’t been good at covering spreads this year, but Leon Rice always has a high quality team and I like them as a buy low. Boise State is 109th in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 34th in shot selection allowed. They are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation. Opponents are shooting much better from midrange against Boise State than the national average. I think that returns to the average over time. This is a very tall team, and a team with a lot of veteran leaders. Ohio Bobcats (1-7 ATS) I don’t necessarily think the Ohio Bobcats are a good team, but I’m confident they will start be being better against the spread. They are dead last in the nation in three point defense. Opponents are shooting a whopping 45.4% from long range against Ohio. They have been right around 34% on three point defense in recent seasons. There’s no way opponents will keep shooting it this well from three. Ohio takes good care of the basketball on offense, and they shoot it well from the free throw line. Virginia Tech (2-7 ATS) Let’s finish out the list with a bigger name. Virginia Tech will enter ACC play soon, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The market is very low on them now because of their underperformance to this point. Also, the ACC isn’t a very good conference this year. Virginia Tech will be in the middle of the pack, and that means there should be plenty of opportunities to bet on the Hokies. Virginia Tech has lost six straight games overall, and they are going to be a team virtually no one wants to bet. Mike Young is still a quality coach, and I think they’ll do better against the spread in the next few weeks.

College Football: Four Bowl Betting Tips

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024

Betting in college football bowl season is completely different than betting in the regular season. The ever-changing landscape of college football with the transfer portal and opt outs is at least partially to blame. Let’s take a look at four tips to help you navigate betting on the bowls this season.#1. Wait Until Closer To Kickoff- I’m normally an advocate for betting early during the regular season. In the regular season I find it much more advantageous to get down before the marketplace beats the number around. In bowl season though, you are taking a large risk if you fire away early. We don’t even know who will be playing and who won’t be playing in these games until a few days before the game. Additionally, the long break between games often leads to some players getting in trouble and being suspended. There is always the risk of injuries in bowl practices too. If you want all the information when betting on these bowl games, you have to wait until closer to the kickoff.#2. Motivation Is Everything- Obviously the teams in the College Football Playoffs will be motivated, but in the other bowl games motivation should be your number one thing to consider before placing a bet on a side. Who wants to be here? Which team had much higher aspirations and is possibly just going through the motions? Maybe this is a rare chance for a program to reach a bowl and they want it badly. An example of a massive motivational edge game was USF vs. Syracuse last year. Syracuse went off as the favorite, but USF won 45-0 and absolutely dominated that game in every way. Is there a young quarterback with something to prove? The Tennessee 35-0 win over Iowa stands out from last season. Handicap the motivation of each team to the best of your ability.#3. Cut Down Your Bet Size- In today’s transfer portal and opt out world, I think it is wise to cut down your bet size when betting on bowl games. With a bunch of unknowns and changing variables, it is dangerous to put yourself out there too much. Personally, I found betting in bowl season to be easier in the past when the portal and opt outs were not part of the handicap. It’s now a very real part of the deal, and protecting some of your bankroll isn’t the worst idea.#4. Bet Against The Public- I am cautious to read too much into betting splits. Overall, I think they are fairly unreliable. I wouldn’t place any bets based on this alone, but trying to discern who the public is on can help this time of the year. Why? The betting public has proven year after year to be quite poor at betting on bowl games. Many of these bettors didn’t pay much attention to these teams during the year and are just jumping on steam late in the process here. Be careful not to assume that someone knows something when you see a steam move.

CFB Late Season Bowl Motivation Handicapping

Thursday, Nov 21, 2024

CFB Late Season Bowl Motivation HandicappingIt is late in the regular season and you are going to hear a lot of people talking about teams needing to win to become bowl eligible. It is important to remember that not all of this situations are the same. Some in the media talk about bowl eligibility for teams like that is the top priority for everyone. What if your aspirations were much higher and you simply would want the season to be over? There are always a few teams in that kind of spot each year. On the whole, I do think accounting for bowl motivation is a good idea, but it should be done on a case by case basis. Let’s take a look at a few teams who are on the edge of being bowl eligible: UCLA Bruins (4-6 Straight Up Record) UCLA hosts rival USC this weekend in the biggest game for them (and USC). USC is also 5-5 and the Trojans play Notre Dame the following week. UCLA plays Fresno State in the final week, so if they can win this game they’ll have a great shot at going bowling. UCLA knows this is their best shot too though. This game will be intense! Arizona Wildcats (4-6 Record) Arizona goes to TCU where they are a double digit dog this week. The Wildcats benefited from Houston being dreadful last week, but they have played very poorly in the last few weeks overall. They expected better from this season. It is tough to gauge whether they care a lot or not. New Mexico Lobos (5-6 Record) Bronco Mendenhall has done a great job with this Lobos team. Their expectations were extremely low after the program hadn’t even been competitive in recent seasons. The fact that they even have a shot at a bowl is amazing. New Mexico goes to Hawaii next weekend. That’s a tricky spot with the long travel, but I trust New Mexico to be fully prepared for that contest. UL Monroe Warhawks (5-5 Record) Coach Vincent is another guy who has done a great job this year. ULM was 2-10 and 0-8 in the Sun Belt last year. This team would absolutely love to go to any bowl and get the extra practices to keep things going in a positive direction for next year. A highly motivated team. Virginia Tech (5-5 Record) Virginia Tech is an interesting case. The Hokies had much higher goals for this season. They have been upset multiple times, and injuries are at least part of the reason for their failures this season. They play at Duke and host Virginia in their remaining games. They should want that Virginia game because it is a rivalry, but overall I find it hard to know the motivation of this team for a bowl game in general. UTSA Roadrunners (5-5 Record) UTSA was much better last year, but they lost a bunch of very talented players. Coach Traylor does a good job with this program, and UTSA has improved as the season has gone along. A nice upset win over North Texas last week has this team going in the right direction. They also upset Memphis the week before. They host Temple this week, and I think this group will be focused on getting the job done and reaching another bowl.

CFB: Laying The Points Late in Season

Thursday, Nov 21, 2024

There’s only a couple weeks left in the college football season. There is a big difference in handicapping late regular season games compared to early or middle of the season contests. Does the team with a poor record have a reason to care late in the year? In some cases there are reasons for that team to be trying hard for a new coach. There are also times where specific coaches are great at motivating a team even when they seemingly have little to play for in the larger scheme of things. Still, most of the time these very weak teams struggle late in the regular season.I don’t like to lay a lot of points as a general rule. It doesn’t feel comfortable to me. The numbers show that laying the points late in the regular season is overall a winning strategy though.When does laying the points pay off the best for bettors? From game number 10 until game number 12 of the regular season. Here’s a late season favorites system with the filters: -Game 10-12 of the regular season-Opponent winning percentage (straight up) is less than 50%-The team you are betting on is -16.5 or larger-The team you are betting on has covered at a rate of 55% ATS or lower so far this seasonThe ATS record for this system since 2006 is 201-140 (59% ATS). The thought process for adding the ATS cover rate for the season thus far is getting rid of teams that have covered at a very high rate because the point spread would likely be inflated on those teams by this point in the season.Road teams only in the system listed above are 57-25. A smaller sample size to be sure, but impressive results for the long term. This week, there are five applicable games, including one team (South Alabama) on the road:South Florida -17 vs. TulsaGeorgia -42 vs. MassachusettsTennessee -42 vs. UTEPSouth Alabama -22.5 at Southern MississippiTexas St. -20.5 vs. Georgia St. Don’t be afraid to lay the points late in the regular season. It’s a completely different setup handicapping college football in these situations late in the year.

College Football: 3 Teams Undervalued In The Market

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024

It’s already week nine of the college football season. Where does the time go? I wanted to take a look at a few teams and examine three teams I believe are undervalued in the betting market right now. We’ll look at why they might be overvalued and their remaining schedule. These are not in any specific order. Kansas Jayhawks (1-6 ATS and 2-5 SU) The Kansas Jayhawks have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this year. I still believe in Lance Leipold as a head coach though. The loss of Andy Kotelnicke as offensive coordinator has been tough to handle for the team. Jalon Daniels has struggled badly for much of the season. Daniels and the Kansas offense broke out with a great performance against a good Houston defense last week. Is it the sign of things to come or not? Kansas is up to 16th in success rate on offense. They have had some terrible field position and haven’t been able to connect on big plays. The offensive line is getting it going though. They are second in offensive line yards for the season. They seem to be finding an identity.Remaining Schedule: at Kansas State, Iowa State, at BYU, Colorado, at BaylorThe Big 12 is highly competitive, so the schedule isn’t an easy one. They’ll be catching points though and I’ll be looking for spots to back them. Akron Zips (2-5 ATS and 1-6 SU) We go under the radar for the second team. The Akron Zips from the MAC. Akron is -6 in TO margin on the season. The Zips have only scored a touchdown on 8 out of 17 trips into the red zone. That should positively regress some in MAC play. The defense is giving up fewer big plays than a year ago. Akron is a decent 84th in defensive line yards this year. Joe Moorhead is a bright offensive mind, and I expect him to be able to get something going against some of the weaker teams in the league.Remaining Schedule: Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, at N Illinois, at Kent State, ToledoAkron has played one of the toughest schedules of a non Power 4 team. The Zips have been tested and I think it will benefit them down the stretch. TCU Horned Frogs (2-5 ATS and 4-3 SU) TCU has seen the ball bounce the other way a lot this year. TCU has forced six fumbles and only recovered one of them. They have also fumbled the ball 14 times and lost 9 of them. They’ve had some very poor fumble luck. They have a -10 TO margin on the season.TCU is a solid 34th in the country in yards per play margin on the season. Defensively, TCU is 12th in passing play success rate allowed. They have the secondary to slow down some of the good passing attacks in the Big 12. Remaining Schedule: Texas Tech, at Baylor, Oklahoma State, Arizona, at CincinnatiThe underlying metrics for this team suggest they have been unlucky. I’ll look for spots to find value backing them.

College Football: 3 Teams Overvalued In The Market

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024

It’s already week nine of the college football season. Where does the time go anyways? I wanted to take a look at a few teams and examine three teams I believe are overvalued in the betting market right now. We’ll look at why they might be overvalued and their remaining schedule. These are not in any specific order. BYU Cougars (6-1 ATS) BYU is having a really good season. They are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the number. I think there are several signs of regression in their statistics though. BYU is 59th in offensive success rate. They have been reliant on being excellent in the red zone (which can be random) and hitting explosive plays. Defensively, BYU is 82nd in defensive line yards. They are 79th in yards per carry allowed. The run defense will be exposed by top rushing attacks. Jake Retzlaff has a history of turning it over and he has been fortunate to not turn it over more several times this year.Remaining Schedule: at UCF, at Utah, Kansas, at Arizona State, HoustonThere isn’t a layup of a game on this schedule. The Utah game doesn’t look nearly as imposing as it would have before their injury woes. Arizona State on the road is a tough and Skattebo will be running a lot on this BYU defense. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1-1 ATS) Illinois is 6-1 straight up and 5-1-1 ATS this year. Bret Bielema’s team is certainly better than preseason expectations, but I don’t think they are as good as many believe they are now. Illinois is 69th in the nation in yards per play margin. They are +7 in turnover margin. Luke Altmeyer has thrown only one interception this year despite having 9 turnover worthy plays according to PFF. The Illinois defense is 112th in success rate allowed. They are 124th in defensive line yards. Illinois has already allowed 20 sacks on offense. This isn’t the profile of a really good team.Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, Minnesota, Michigan State, at Rutgers, at NorthwesternThe rest of the schedule is fairly easy outside of the game at Oregon. Still, I think laying points with this team is dangerous given their clear weaknesses. Memphis Tigers (4-3 ATS) Memphis is 6-1 straight up this year, but they aren’t playing like a top notch team. Memphis is +10 in turnover margin this season. They have recovered 9 fumbles lost by the opposition this year, which is the most in the country. Memphis is only 60th in the nation in yards per play margin though, and they have played the 117th toughest schedule in the country (very easy) according to Jeff Sagarin. Memphis’ defense is giving up loads of explosive plays. Opponents have 33 plays of 20 yards or more on them already this year. The Memphis passing game is 87th in pass play success rate on the season. Remaining schedule: Charlotte, at UTSA, Rice, UAB, at TulaneThis is an easy schedule the rest of the way too on the whole. The game at Tulane could be a massive one for both teams! Memphis has played down to weak opponents in the past couple years though, so I’m cautious laying big numbers with them.

Late Regular Season MLB Betting: 4 Tips For Betting Late in the Year

Friday, Sep 13, 2024

It is getting very late in the MLB regular season. This is a really long grind. No other major sport has this long of a regular season. It can make betting on baseball very unique. The end of the regular season is just a little more than two weeks away. Let’s take a look at four tips for betting on MLB late in the regular season. Be Selective- This isn’t the time of the season to just spray the board and go all in. There are tons of new players on the field who we don’t really have a good feel for yet. Starting pitchers pitching in their first or second game in the majors can be very volatile. I try to stay away from those games. Sometimes the best bet is to pass on a game. Saving yourself from taking a loser is well worth it. Handicap Motivation (Understand Others Do Too Though) Yes you should handicap motivation late in the regular season. It would be crazy not to at least consider whether the team you are looking to bet on truly cares or not. Importantly though, this cannot be the only thing you consider. Price is extremely important and the prices can get absolutely out of control this time of the year. Do you really want to lay -450 in MLB? I can’t do it! Especially in the final weekend of the season, this gets to be too crowded of a wagering strategy. Handicap Weather- As we get very late into the season, the weather can be changing a lot in some parts of the country. You’ll see some places where the heat and humidity continue late into September. You’ll also be seeing some places where cooler weather is prevailing and winds are blowing in and making it very tough to hit the ball out of the ballpark. Totals betting late in the regular season requires a lot of weather handicapping. Look For Hot Underdogs- Baseball is a streaky sport. Every single year there are a couple teams who get hot late in the season who aren’t very good. They don’t even have anything to play for as a team, but there are plenty of young guys with talent looking to prove a point. You can catch some teams like this at good plus money prices in the last week or two of the season. If you see a high ceiling on those players and that specific team, these are chances worth taking. End of the regular season betting is much different than the rest of the season. Pick your spots carefully!

College Football Betting: Dogs Dominate Early- What Now?

Friday, Sep 13, 2024

We are two weeks into the college football season. Underdogs are 101-77-2 ATS to start out the season. That is 56.7% ATS. Just start blindly betting all underdogs right? Easy! If you’ve been betting for very long, you know it isn’t that easy.Underdogs have cashed at a high rate so far this year, but the oddsmakers and the marketplace in general are quick to react to things like this. You’ll start paying a sort of tax on the underdogs. The more the word gets out that underdogs are cashing at a high rate, the worse the prices on those underdogs will get.Why have underdogs cashed at such a high rate so far this year? First, the under is hitting 56% of the time so far this year. We know that unders and underdogs are correlated in general, so that is a big help. Second, there have been several rule changes in college football. The two minute timeout shouldn’t make any difference to ATS bets. The helmet communications could have an impact of some kind. The fact that both offenses and defenses can communicate with their staffs have led to some changes. It has slowed the overall pace of the game down. A slower pace lends itself to unders and underdogs. The defenses have possibly been able to adjust a bit better.We’ve seen the market move toward the under in a lot of games in week three. I don’t think the under will continue to be a free wager. I also don’t think the underdog will continue to cover at this rate. This isn’t some really small market in a third world country. There is a lot of money coming into the college football betting market. What to do now? I would closely watch the movement of the marketplace as a whole. Do underdogs continue to take money? If so, look to grab favorites later in the week instead of earlier. If you like a large underdog, I would look to take that earlier in the week than normal in the short term. You have to be willing to make adjustments quickly in college football, but you don’t want to change your whole betting strategy based on a couple of weeks of data.

College Football: Two Season Win Total Unders

Friday, Aug 23, 2024

College football season is here! It’s been a long wait, but we are back in business. I’ve had a lot of success with season win totals in the past. Two years ago I went 12-3 on season win totals. Last year I went 12-4-1 on season win totals.With the season about to start, I wanted to cover two season win total “unders” I like and fill you in on why I like them.College Football Season Win Totals: Two Unders Old Dominion under 4.5 Old Dominion won six games last year, but they were extremely fortunate to get to six wins. All six wins came in the final minute. They beat Texas A&M Commerce by one point because of a missed 2 point conversion. They were down 10 points to Georgia State late in the fourth before a blocked field goal, safety, and 4th and goal touchdown led to one of the most improbable wins of the season.The offensive line allowed 61 sacks and they are about as bad as you’ll see on the offensive line in the country. The running back and wide receiver units are a clear weakness. The secondary is a huge weakness, and Old Dominion will be torn up in the air by many opponents this season. The special teams unit is very weak.They will be underdogs of a touchdown or more in seven games. They shouldn’t be favored by more than a point or two in a single game all year. I don’t think they can get to five wins. The schedule is tougher this year, and they weren’t as good as their record indicated last season. Ohio under 6.5 Ohio returns two starters on offense and two starters on defense. The fact that this team has been good in recent years means very little to this season. They had two good quarterbacks in Rourke and Harris last season. Both of them transferred out and Parker Navarro is expected to start at signal caller. That’s a significant downgrade. The top six wide receivers from last year are all gone. They lost their star tight end to Ohio State. Who are they going to throw the ball to? Ohio lost stars on the defensive line and at linebacker. A team that has consistently been very good against the run is likely to struggle to stop the ground game this season.Ohio should be an underdog of more than a touchdown in four games. I consider those nearly unwinnable for this team. They should be a favorite in just five games. They’ll only be favored by more than a touchdown twice.

College Football: Two Season Win Total Overs

Friday, Aug 23, 2024

College football season is here! It’s been a long wait, but we are back in business. I’ve had a lot of success with season win totals in the past. Two years ago I went 12-3 on season win totals. Last year I went 12-4-1 on season win totals.With the season about to start, I wanted to cover two season win total “overs” I like and fill you in on why I like them.College Football Season Win Totals: Two Overs Sam Houston State over 4.5- The Sam Houston State Bearkats went 3-9 last year. They started the season 0-6, before going 3-3 in the final six games of the season. Sam Houston State was very close in many of their losses. That includes a 21-16 loss to the powerful Liberty Flames. Only one of their nine losses was by more than two touchdowns. The Bearkats offense was horrible early in the season, but they started picking up their level quite a bit late in the season. Conference USA is the weakest of all of the conferences. That gives a team who finished a little below the middle of the conference a real chance to make a jump without getting far better. Liberty is better than everyone else. Jacksonville State is likely a little too good as well. I think Sam Houston State has as much of a chance as anyone else. I think Sam Houston State will be favored in five games this season. They will only be an underdog of more than 10 points three times this season. They are definitely capable of pulling some upsets. Appalachian State over 8 The Appalachian State Mountaineers should be favored in either 10 or 11 games this season. With a season total of eight, we have a nice cushion here. Other than the game at Clemson, they should have a really solid chance in every game. Even their game against Liberty is in Boone, and this is a tremendous home field advantage. Appalachian State has a really good quarterback and a group of excellent wide receivers. I think their wide receivers and tight ends are the best in the Sun Belt. Shrader was a nice pickup in the transfer portal to help their offensive line. The Mountaineers brought in four excellent transfers in the secondary to shore up their pass defense too. Appalachian State has an excellent special teams unit, and I think that will win them a close game or too.I feel like eight is the floor for this team, and the ceiling is 11-1 or so. I’m happy to bet the over here.

3 ACC Teams To Watch

Friday, Jul 26, 2024

ACC Football: 3 Teams To WatchCollege football is less than one month away! It will be here before you know it. I’ve been doing deep dives into the teams one by one. I’ve recently been in the ACC. I want to take a look at three ACC teams I’ve got my eye on in one way or another for the season ahead. Georgia Tech- I really like Offensive Coordinator Buster Faulkner. Haynes King was fantastic in Faulkner’s system last year, and I see no reason to expect anything other than a very good season from King. This is a quarterback who wasn’t put in the right position to succeed at Texas A&M, but he was very highly touted and he showed why last year. I don’t think Georgia Tech’s offensive success last year was a fluke at all. Head Coach Brent Key knows offensive lines very well and the Yellow Jackets offensive line will be a major strength this year. They averaged 5.4 yards per carry last year and allowed only 15 sacks. Can the Georgia Tech defense improve? That is up in the air. I expect big numbers from the offense though. Virginia Tech- Kyron Drones should have been starting from the beginning of the year last year in Blacksburg. Drones really took off late last year as he learned the offense much better. The Hokies are much improved at wide receiver with Jennings and Gallo back from injury. The offensive line is the one question mark I have on offense. If they can gel, this could be a special offense. The Hokies is very strong in the secondary and solid on the defensive line as well. Virginia Tech’s special teams are so good that they will win a game or two solely because of that unit. The Hokies are a team I like as a futures play. The potential upside here is high. Duke- The Blue Devils lost so much in the offseason. They lost a top notch coach in Mike Elko. They lost a star quarterback in Riley Leonard. They lost their top running back in Jordan Waters. Manny Diaz has a lot to prove as a head coach. Murphy could be a good quarterback in the right system, but I’m not convinced this is the spot. Duke’s offensive line is going to be a major weakness. The Blue Devils lost their top five defensive linemen and are going to struggle in a big way to stop the run. Diaz should do a good job coaching up the secondary, so I see Duke as a matchup specific team. The Blue Devils should do far better against pass heavy teams than run heavy teams.

8 SEC Football Betting Tidbits

Friday, Jul 26, 2024

College football is less than one month away! It will be here before you know it. I’ve been doing deep dives into the teams one by one. I’ve recently looked closely at the SEC. It’s a major conference that gets a lot of coverage. Let’s take a look at 8 under the radar tidbits to help you bet the SEC in the season ahead.8 SEC Tidbits- Early Season Betting LSU- Brian Kelly has been fantastic in the underdog role. How good? Kelly is 40-23-2 ATS in his last 65 games as an underdog. The Tigers have some tough spots in their schedule and will be an underdog some this year. Texas- Their first year in the SEC is crucial for the Longhorns. If they can fix their red zone woes this offense could be special. They were bottom ten in the nation in red zone efficiency on offense. Was it play calling or was it the players not coming through in key moments? Georgia- The Georgia Bulldogs have an absolutely amazing looking depth chart in the trenches. They have highly touted players three and four deep on both the offensive and defensive line. This is the reason I have them as the favorite for the national title this year. Georgia can suffer injuries in these spots and experience very little drop off. Tennessee- A defense that has a major strength and a major weakness. The Volunteers defensive line is excellent, and I find it to be underrated. They can dominant the weaker offensive lines that they go up against. On the other hand, the Volunteers secondary is a weakness. They brought in MTSU and Temple starters to help try to shore things up, but I’m not sure they are enough for the SEC. South Carolina- A couple key points here. First, The Gamecocks will likely run the football a lot this year with Sellers or Ashford at quarterback and Sanders and company at running back. The special teams will still be good, but I don’t think they will be quite as great now that Pete Lembo(special teams guru) left. Mississippi State- Jeff Lebby is the new coach, and he wants his teams to play ultra fast. The Bulldogs are playing at a major talent disadvantage though. They are learning a new offense and the wide receivers just aren’t up to par for what he needs. Will they continue to play fast even when they are taking their lumps? Kentucky- The Kentucky Wildcats once again have an elite defensive line. Mark Stoops is doing this year in and year out. They allowed just 3.3 yards per carry and had 33 sacks last year. I think they could be even better this season. Florida- This could be the most difficult college football schedule I’ve ever seen. I continue to think that Billy Napier is getting a bit of a raw deal from some Gators fans. However, I have to wonder if this team gets off to a slow start whether they will be able to keep battling all the way or not. The first few games are huge for both Napier’s future and the Gators chances this season.

MLB Umpire Handicapping: 3 Under Umpires

Thursday, Jun 20, 2024

Handicapping Major League Baseball means taking a look at a whole bunch of different factors. I closely examine umpires for their tendencies when they are behind home plate. Why wouldn’t you want to consider this information? The home plate umpire has so much control over the game. Today, I want to take a look at three umpires who have a long history of being good for under bettors (pitcher-friendly). Keep an eye out for these umpires behind the plate. All statistics mentioned below are 5 year averages for the last five full seasons. Phil Cuzzi (67 Unders 48 Overs) (65.23% of pitches a strike) (8.87 runs per game)Phil Cuzzi has been a Major League umpire for a long time, and he has been consistently a strike caller. We looked at some of the top over umpires in my last article, and we saw guys calling about 63% of pitches a strike. Cuzzi is at 65.23% of pitches a strike. That’s more than a two percent difference, and that makes a massive difference when you consider how large of a sample size it is every game. There are a lot of pitches thrown every single contest. Cuzzi is also third highest of any umpire in the majors with a 3.14 strikeout/walk ratio. You better be swinging the bat when Cuzzi is behind home plate!Andy Fletcher (70 Unders 41 Overs) (64.25% of pitches a strike) (8.31 runs per game)Fletcher has had a ton of low scoring games in the last five years. His 63% under rate is impressive over a five year span. The 8.31 runs per game scored in Fletcher’s games are the second lowest of any umpire during that time. His strikeout/walk ratio is a solid 2.91. Fletcher is interesting because earlier in his career he was a bit of an over umpire, but in recent years he has become a consistent under umpire. Brian O’Nora (58 Unders 47 Overs) (64.49% of pitches a strike) (8.51 runs per game)O’Nora is impressive for his consistency toward the under and being a strike caller. Many umpires fluctuate back and forth. O’Nora continually is far above average in strikes called. O’Nora also has a high 2.89 strikeout/walk ratio over the last five years. His runs per game rank in the ten lowest of all umpires in baseball.

MLB: 3 Over Umpires (Batter-Friendly Umpires)

Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024

Handicapping Major League Baseball means taking a look at a whole bunch of different factors. I closely examine umpires for their tendencies when they are behind home plate. Why wouldn’t you want to consider this information? The home plate umpire has so much control over the game. Today, I want to take a look at three umpires who have a long history of being good for over bettors (hitter friendly). Keep an eye out for these umpires behind the plate. All statistics mentioned below are 5 year averages for the last five full seasons. Alfonso Marquez (79 Overs 55 Unders) (63.02% of pitches strikes) (9.79 runs per game) Marquez has consistently shown to be a good over umpire over the last few seasons. He ranks among the ten lowest umpires in percentages of pitches called a strike. His strikeout/walk ratio is also a very low 2.39. That is also among the ten lowest in the majors. 59% of games going over the total and all the underlying numbers pointing strongly toward the over is enough to make him a top over umpire.2. Mark Wegner (60 Overs 47 Unders) (63.09% of pitches strikes) (9.97 runs per game) Wegner hasn’t done quite as many games behind the plate as Marquez, but if anything his underlying numbers are even stronger pointing toward an over umpire. Wegner’s strikeout/walk ratio is an extremely low 2.23. This suggests Wegner is very hesitant to ring up batters on that third strike. The last couple years Wegner’s numbers have been even stronger toward the over than the overall five year trend. 3. Edwin Moscoso (73 Overs 43 Unders) (62.75% of pitches strikes) (9.98 runs per game) Moscoso has the single lowest called strikes percentage of any regular MLB umpire during this period. He consistently pinches the strike zone and makes it very tough on pitchers. In this time period, 62.9% of his games have gone over the posted total. His strikeout/walk ratio is a really impressive 2.22. Moscoso is making it really hard for the pitcher to get a called strike three. He is a younger umpire, but he is one to watch.

5 Starting Pitchers Who Should Experience Positive Regression

Monday, May 27, 2024

I recently looked at five starting pitchers who should experience negative regression. Let’s take a look at a few who should experience positive regression. Keep in mind that positive regression doesn’t mean a player is improving, it just means that a player is moving back to its previously expected value (mean). With advanced statistics we can get a pretty good picture of guys who could experience this. Here are five to keep an eye on. These are not in any particular order. Patrick Sandoval (5.60 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 4.02 SIERA) Sandoval has a strikeout rate of 23.1%. He is elite at missing bats. Opponents have an unsustainable batting average on balls in play of .348. He has left only 62.3% of runners on base. The knock on Sandoval is he walks too many batters. Sandoval isn’t an elite pitcher, but he is clearly better than his 5.60 ERA. A potential buy low candidate here. Jack Flaherty (3.84 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 2.27 SIERA) Flaherty has been up and down throughout his career. He is throwing the ball extremely well for the Tigers this season. Flaherty is striking out 11.95 batters per nine innings. Opponents have a .340 batting average on balls in play. The Tigers in general are much more competitive than they have been, and I think Flaherty is a pitcher to watch the rest of the way. His velocity is solid and his walk rate is just 1.33 walks per nine innings. Excellent. Tyler Glasnow (3.09 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 2.60 SIERA) Glasnow has top of the line stuff. His fastball averages 96.3 mph and his slider and curveball are tremendous strikeout pitches. Glasnow has had some bad luck in recent starts, so if someone wants to get too low on him I would be happy to buy stock. Glasnow has a superb 0.91 WHIP on the season. His hard hit batted ball percentage is below 30%. George Kirby (4.33 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 3.47 SIERA) Kirby is still a good young pitcher. He is only 26 so his prime is still ahead of him. Kirby was excellent in each of the last two seasons, but his numbers this year haven’t been as good. I expect him to bounce back. Kirby has elite ccontrol. He is walking less than one batter per nine innings. The lack of free passes is a huge boost to long term performance. He is great at inducing soft contact from hitters too. Kirby is someone I’ll look to back in certain spots going forward. Pablo Lopez (5.25 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 2.96 SIERA) Lopez is a great candidate for positive regression in the coming weeks and months. Lopez has a strikeout rate of a whopping 27.7%. He has an extremely low walk rate of 4.0%. His left on base rate is very low at 63.6% on the season. Lopez has a walk rate of less than one batter per nine innings in his last five starts. He has three walks and 32 strikeouts in that time. His home run rate allowed should come down, and he is still a quality pitcher.

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