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An esteemed veteran of the sports betting industry, Kyle Hunter is a frequent guest on radio shows, podcasts and videos. $1,000 per game bettors have made $243,000 following Kyle's plays since 2010. Kyle is the type to grind away and try to help clients in every way he can.

Active since: 2009

Location: Columbus, OH

Kyle Hunter has been handicapping professionally since late 2009. Kyle has a degree in finance and he specialized in statistics. Kyle has the ability to follow important trends and statistics, and discount other trends that aren’t predictive. The data and trends can be your friends and Kyle knows how to use them to spot value.

Kyle started in the finance industry and moved over to the sports betting world. His knowledge of the sports betting market is a major strength. The ability to buy low and sell high on teams can really help turn a profit in the sports betting industry.

One area where Kyle pays close attention is to tendencies of umpires or referees. While some handicappers overlook this important information, Kyle keeps databases and detailed information in this area. Knowing these tendencies can keep you a step ahead of the game! Why not take advantage of every extra edge you can find?

Kyle's plays are rated 3 star - regular play, 4 star - upgraded play, and 5 star - top play. Kyle's "Big Game Hunter" big play selections have been highly sought after for many years. You will receive a lot of totals plays from Kyle since that is a specialty. Being able to stay in front of trends and tempo changes is a valuable skill.

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NCAAB - Over / Under - Fri, Mar 28

Sweet 16 Totals Best Bet *88-56 Last 144 CBB!

88-56 last 144 CBB plays. 57-34 last 91 plays overall. This Sweet 16 Totals Best Bet is my favorite total of the Swee...

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NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Futures Value Plays

Tuesday, Mar 18, 2025

It’s a great time of the year to be a sports fan and a sports bettor. March Madness brings all the drama, and we have just about reached the start of that great four days of sports on Thursday-Sunday of the first weekend. I wanted to take a look at a few Sweet 16 Futures that I believe have some value before we tip off the tournament. The price listed is the best price I found by searching 8 different major sportsbooks. When you are betting futures, always make sure you shop around for the best price! Kentucky To Reach Sweet 16 (+120) The Kentucky Wildcats are expected to get Lamont Butler back for the NCAA Tournament. Butler’s importance cannot be overstated because he is a great ball handler and creator. Kentucky’s spot in the bracket isn’t a bad one at all either. Illinois is a wildly inconsistent team that can’t be trusted as the sixth seed. Troy doesn’t have the scoring upside of some other 13 or 14 seeds. I think this is a buy low spot for the Kentucky Wildcats. Marquette to Reach Sweet 16 (+320) The Marquette Golden Eagles rank a solid 15th at Shot Quality in adjusted Shot Quality rating. Marquette has been a bit unlucky throughout the season. This team underachieved their preseason expectations, but they still have the upside potential in them. Shaka Smart has been a good coach in the NCAA Tournament. New Mexico is their Round of 64 matchup, and the Mountain West is 13-33 ATS in the Round of 64. Michigan State would be their second round game. The Spartans are clearly a good team, but I think their lack of shot making could hold them back. North Carolina to Reach Sweet 16 (+700) Should North Carolina have made the NCAA Tournament. No. Still, I think there is value here. The Tar Heels take on San Diego State in the First Four. The Mountain West cannot be trusted. North Carolina would then take on an Ole Miss team that hasn’t consistently looked like a top team. Iowa State is the #3 seed here, and the Cyclones are shorthanded without Gilbert. The Tar Heels have heard everyone saying they shouldn’t have made it this week. North Carolina’s team talent ranking is very high. This wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen a team go from Dayton to the Sweet 16. Wisconsin to Reach Sweet 16 (+100) This is probably my least favorite of the group, but I think this is a buy low spot on Wisconsin as well. Montana in the first round is a great matchup for Wisconsin. The Big Sky Conference has consistently been overmatched in the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin just went 7/39 from 3 point range against Michigan, but I’m confident their offense will look a lot better against Montana. Wisconsin then would play the winner of VCU/BYU. That isn’t an easy game, but Wisconsin would be favored in either matchup.

3 NCAA Tournament Trends/Angles To Watch

Tuesday, Mar 18, 2025

NCAA Tournament 3 Angles/Trends To WatchThe NCAA Tournament is finally here! As a huge sports fan, I can confidently say this is my favorite sporting event of the year. The first four days of March Madness are as exciting as you get in the world of sports. Today, I want to take a look at three angles/trends I think you should keep in mind when placing your bets during the NCAA Tournament this year. The Mountain West is 26-53 ATS (32.9%) in their last 79 NCAA Tournament games. Mountain West teams are 13-33 ATS in the Round of 64. San Diego State made that long run a couple years ago, but outside of that the Mountain West has absolutely been burning bettors money for many years. The Mountain West is clearly worse this year than it was a year ago. New Mexico takes on Marquette in Cleveland. Marquette certainly has the higher upside, but neither team has been consistent this season. San Diego State takes on North Carolina in the First Four game in Dayton. North Carolina has a massive talent advantage in that one as well. Will the Tar Heels have a chip on their shoulder? Be careful before you trust the MWC in general. NCAA Tournament with a spread of six points or more and a total of 137 or higher are 197-143 to the under (57.9% unders) since 2005. What is the thought process here? These are games that are less likely to go to overtime. They are also less likely to be a fouling fest in the last minute or two. These have done especially well in the early rounds of the tournament. There are going to be a bunch of matches to this angle this season. Importantly, I would definitely never bet an angle like this blindly. If it is a matchup of two teams who are going to push tempo all the way and get a bunch of trips to the line, that is one where I would sit out on following this angle. #11 and #12 Seeds facing an opponent with an ATS Win (Cover) Rate of 55% or higher on the year- these teams are 67-41 ATS (62% ATS). The #11 and #12 seeds have been profitable for bettors in general in the past decade, but when the opposition has been a great cover team through the year this angle has been even better. The middle of the brackets in terms of seeds have been valuable to underdog bettors. There are top teams in the #1 and #2 seeds, but in the #5 and #6 areas we’ve often found some inconsistent teams who aren’t worthy of laying the number of points they are laying. Remember these angles are just one part of the handicap, but I think all three of these are good to keep in mind when getting set for the NCAA Tournament this year.

College Hoops: Four Teams to Sell High ATS

Tuesday, Feb 25, 2025

March is almost here! It’s a great time of the year to be a college basketball bettor as well as a college basketball fan. Let’s take a look at four teams that might be good to sell high on when betting against the number going forward. Clemson Tigers (17-10 ATS) The Clemson Tigers have been absolutely on fire. Why would anyone want to sell them right now? First, the market is extremely high on Clemson based on their recent results. It is hard to continually beat the number when this large of an adjustment is being made. Second, Brad Brownell’s teams have not been good against the number in March. The ACC is much weaker than it was in the past, but Clemson is going to be laying some really big numbers in the next couple weeks. Clemson has a 22-5 record and just winning these games and improving their record should be enough for the Tigers. Shot Quality ranks Clemson as the luckiest team in the ACC so far this season. Middle Tenn State (13-10 ATS) MTSU sits third in the Conference USA standings. They rate 18th in the nation in luck factor according to KenPom. MTSU has a tough road double at New Mexico State and at UTEP in their next couple games. They then must come home to host Liberty, who I believe is the best team in CUSA. MTSU is dead last in Conference USA in defensive rebounding percentage. The Blue Raiders also struggle from the free throw line. They have had loads of close wins in the last couple months. I don’t think they’ll keep getting all the bounces the rest of the way. Robert Morris Colonials (22-6 ATS) If you’ve been betting Robert Morris all the way through the season, you are rich right now. If you haven’t, I think it is too late to join in the party. A 22-6 ATS record is going to get the attention of oddsmakers and the betting marketplace regardless of what conference you are in, and I’ve started to see these lines being adjusted. Robert Morris only has one regular season game left, but I think fading them ATS in the Horizon League Tournament could be profitable as well. This is clearly a good team, but I don’t think there is a large gap from the top of the Horizon League to teams right in the middle. 4. Michigan State Spartans (17-9-1 ATS) Tom Izzo is a great coach, so it is a little scary fading him going into the late season period. Still, Michigan State has been playing at its peak of late in my opinion. Michigan State doesn’t have outside shooters, and they are reliant on getting to the hoop and getting to the free throw line. The Spartans don’t force many turnovers on defense. Michigan State plays a tough schedule the rest of the regular season. This is probably my least favorite of the fades, but their advanced numbers do suggest regression.

College Basketball: 4 Teams to Buy Low ATS

Tuesday, Feb 25, 2025

March is right around the corner! It’s a great time of the year to be a college basketball bettor as well as a college basketball fan. Let’s take a look at four teams that might be good to buy low on when betting against the number going forward. Seattle Redhawks (9-14-1 ATS) Seattle is the single most unlucky team according to KenPom’s luck factor. Seattle also ranks as very unfortunate in the Shot Quality luck ratings. Seattle has a high upside, but they haven’t played consistently enough. Seattle led Grand Canyon on the road for much of the game before losing by nine. They also beat the Washington Huskies on the road. They dod a good job forcing turnovers, and they are good on the defensive glass. They get home games against Cal Baptist and Grand Canyon in the next week. St. Louis Billikens (9-16 ATS) St. Louis has two elite mid-major players in Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope. Avila has lower shooting percentages this year than he did a year ago, but I think he can still take over a game with his play making ability. St. Louis is rated as a bit unlucky from the advanced numbers. The Billikens do struggle with turnovers on offense, so I would look to back them primarily against teams who aren’t very good at forcing turnovers. The market is low on this team, and I want to be above the market here. Oregon Ducks (12-15 ATS) Oregon won at Wisconsin this past weekend. The Ducks have been inconsistent this year, but I really like Dana Altman and his ability to have teams playing their best basketball in March. If you filter coaches ATS records to only the last six games of the regular season and then the postseason, Altman ranks among the five most profitable coaches. Altman’s teams have looked far worse than this Oregon team and still been strong ATS late in the season. Oregon has play makers and the Ducks have proven capable of winning. I’m looking for spots to bet on Oregon. Sam Houston State Bearkats (8-17 ATS) Sam Houston is 10th in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage offense. Sam Houston has taken some really unfortunate bounces this year though. They are easily the unluckiest team in the conference. Sam Houston has lost three overtime games in Conference USA action (zero OT wins). The Bearkats showed a lot recently in wins against Jacksonville State (first in the league) and on the road at Western Kentucky. Sam Houston is 4-11 in CUSA action, but all 11 losses have come by single digits. They have been very close, and I like their chances of some positive regression down the stretch.

College Hoops Overall Betting- Last 30 Days Trends

Friday, Jan 24, 2025

College Hoops Overall Betting Last 30 Days TrendsWhat has happened in the last 30 days in college basketball? I’m looking only from a bettors perspective at the whole picture of the college basketball landscape. Let’s see what has gone on and then take a look at whether we can gain any edges going forward. Last 30 Days Betting StatsHome Teams 580-634 ATS (47.8%)Road Teams 634-580 ATS (52.2%) Underdogs 612-606 ATS (50.4%) Home Underdogs 179-201 ATS (47.1%) 612 Overs 606 Unders (50.2%)Overtime Games 67-10 Overs (87% Overs) Non-Overtime Games 596-545 Unders (52.2% Unders) Let’s start with the totals. It should come as no surprise that games that go to overtime go over the total at a very high rate. If you could predict which games were going over the total, you could be rich! That’s obviously very hard to predict. On the other hand, you can try to predict which games won’t go to overtime and that helps a lot with knowing where there can be opportunities to bet the under. Unders where there is a large point spread have done better than unders in general for many years. That is because there is far less of a chance of a late fouling fest, and a much smaller chance of overtime. I also do consider overs a bit more when the point spread is between 5-8 points because of the increased chances of a late foul fest. On the ATS front, home teams did very poorly in the last 30 days. Is it an aberration? They won’t continue to do this poorly ATS consistently, but road teams have had the edge over home teams in most recent seasons. There is quite a bit of evidence that home court advantage is overvalued by the betting markets. There are obviously exceptions to the rule where some specific home courts are worth a lot, but on the whole home court advantage is being overstated.There are about five weeks left in the regular season. As we grow closer to the end of the season, I would try to keep an eye out for teams who have little to play for and seem to be just going through the motions. The oddsmakers are good at their job, but there are always some edges to be found.

Four NCAA BB Teams to Sell High

Friday, Jan 24, 2025

Four NCAA BB Teams To Sell High Betting on sports can be similar to buying and selling in the stock market. You want to look to buy teams when they are low and sell teams when the market is too high on them. I want to take a look at four teams that have done well for bettors so far this year. These are teams where it might makes sense to try to sell high while you have a chance. UC Davis (10-7-1 ATS) UC Davis is 7th out of 364 teams in the country in KenPom’s luck factor. They are also among the luckiest teams based on Shot Quality’s data. UC Davis ranks 247th in the country in shot selection. They also rank a poor 309th in shot selection allowed. They are very heavily relying on forcing turnovers to keep their defensive efficiency numbers up. UC Davis has had a friendly schedule to this point in the conference too. That will not be the case going forward. UC Davis plays their next four games on the road. UC Riverside and UC Irvine are the next two up on the schedule. I’ll look for spots to fade UC Davis. 2. Middle Tennessee State (11-4-2 ATS) MTSU has been a covering machine this year, but I don’t think that will continue the rest of the way. Middle Tennessee State is 21st in KenPom’s luck factor. The Blue Raiders play four of their next six games on the road. There is definitely some luck involved in 3 point FG percentage defense. MTSU is allowing opponents to shoot just 30.2% (40th best in the country) from long range so far this year. They are 274th in the country in open 3 rate allowed though. MTSU has been poor at defending the 3 point line in recent seasons. I think this number will regress toward the mean. Cleveland State (12-6 ATS) The Cleveland State Vikings have had a really good season. I think this team is well coached and they are improved. I think that the market has gotten a bit high on them though. Cleveland State is 9-1 in a Horizon League that is a bit weaker than it has normally been. Cleveland State relies on turnovers and offensive rebounds to do a lot of their damage. This is a team that has played the #312 strength of schedule so far this season. The road games at Fort Wayne and Northern Kentucky will be good tests for them in the upcoming days. St. Bonaventure (14-5 ATS) The Bonnies are a pretty good team, but there is a point spread tax on them at this point after this kind of covering stretch. DaSante Bowen is still out and Chance Moore missed their last game too. The Bonnies lack the depth necessary to keep playing at such a high level without multiple key starters. They are giving up nearly 1.11 points per possession in A10 play. Their defense that is normally a strength is weaker than average this season.

Four CBB Teams To Buy Low

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024

The college hoops season is more than a month old. The teams have played enough now that we can sit back and look for regression candidates in one way or the other. I want to take a look at teams who could positively regress in the near future. These are teams where there are reasons to believe they are better than the marketplace has them rated. These are in no particular order. UAB Blazers (3-6 ATS) The UAB Blazers have been wildly inconsistent so far this year. They showed how good they can be with their 42-12 start against Southern Miss early in the year. They also lost to Longwood and Illinois State. Andy Kennedy is a good coach, and I think this team can be a money earner going forward. They are just 170th in effective field goal percentage offense, but Shot Quality has them at 23rd in the nation in shot selection. They have been missing a lot of open looks. Opponents are also shooting nearly 80% from the free throw line against UAB. That will regress toward the mean. Boise State Broncos (2-6 ATS) The Boise State Broncos haven’t been good at covering spreads this year, but Leon Rice always has a high quality team and I like them as a buy low. Boise State is 109th in effective field goal percentage defense. They are 34th in shot selection allowed. They are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in the nation. Opponents are shooting much better from midrange against Boise State than the national average. I think that returns to the average over time. This is a very tall team, and a team with a lot of veteran leaders. Ohio Bobcats (1-7 ATS) I don’t necessarily think the Ohio Bobcats are a good team, but I’m confident they will start be being better against the spread. They are dead last in the nation in three point defense. Opponents are shooting a whopping 45.4% from long range against Ohio. They have been right around 34% on three point defense in recent seasons. There’s no way opponents will keep shooting it this well from three. Ohio takes good care of the basketball on offense, and they shoot it well from the free throw line. Virginia Tech (2-7 ATS) Let’s finish out the list with a bigger name. Virginia Tech will enter ACC play soon, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. The market is very low on them now because of their underperformance to this point. Also, the ACC isn’t a very good conference this year. Virginia Tech will be in the middle of the pack, and that means there should be plenty of opportunities to bet on the Hokies. Virginia Tech has lost six straight games overall, and they are going to be a team virtually no one wants to bet. Mike Young is still a quality coach, and I think they’ll do better against the spread in the next few weeks.

College Football: Four Bowl Betting Tips

Thursday, Dec 12, 2024

Betting in college football bowl season is completely different than betting in the regular season. The ever-changing landscape of college football with the transfer portal and opt outs is at least partially to blame. Let’s take a look at four tips to help you navigate betting on the bowls this season.#1. Wait Until Closer To Kickoff- I’m normally an advocate for betting early during the regular season. In the regular season I find it much more advantageous to get down before the marketplace beats the number around. In bowl season though, you are taking a large risk if you fire away early. We don’t even know who will be playing and who won’t be playing in these games until a few days before the game. Additionally, the long break between games often leads to some players getting in trouble and being suspended. There is always the risk of injuries in bowl practices too. If you want all the information when betting on these bowl games, you have to wait until closer to the kickoff.#2. Motivation Is Everything- Obviously the teams in the College Football Playoffs will be motivated, but in the other bowl games motivation should be your number one thing to consider before placing a bet on a side. Who wants to be here? Which team had much higher aspirations and is possibly just going through the motions? Maybe this is a rare chance for a program to reach a bowl and they want it badly. An example of a massive motivational edge game was USF vs. Syracuse last year. Syracuse went off as the favorite, but USF won 45-0 and absolutely dominated that game in every way. Is there a young quarterback with something to prove? The Tennessee 35-0 win over Iowa stands out from last season. Handicap the motivation of each team to the best of your ability.#3. Cut Down Your Bet Size- In today’s transfer portal and opt out world, I think it is wise to cut down your bet size when betting on bowl games. With a bunch of unknowns and changing variables, it is dangerous to put yourself out there too much. Personally, I found betting in bowl season to be easier in the past when the portal and opt outs were not part of the handicap. It’s now a very real part of the deal, and protecting some of your bankroll isn’t the worst idea.#4. Bet Against The Public- I am cautious to read too much into betting splits. Overall, I think they are fairly unreliable. I wouldn’t place any bets based on this alone, but trying to discern who the public is on can help this time of the year. Why? The betting public has proven year after year to be quite poor at betting on bowl games. Many of these bettors didn’t pay much attention to these teams during the year and are just jumping on steam late in the process here. Be careful not to assume that someone knows something when you see a steam move.

CFB Late Season Bowl Motivation Handicapping

Thursday, Nov 21, 2024

CFB Late Season Bowl Motivation HandicappingIt is late in the regular season and you are going to hear a lot of people talking about teams needing to win to become bowl eligible. It is important to remember that not all of this situations are the same. Some in the media talk about bowl eligibility for teams like that is the top priority for everyone. What if your aspirations were much higher and you simply would want the season to be over? There are always a few teams in that kind of spot each year. On the whole, I do think accounting for bowl motivation is a good idea, but it should be done on a case by case basis. Let’s take a look at a few teams who are on the edge of being bowl eligible: UCLA Bruins (4-6 Straight Up Record) UCLA hosts rival USC this weekend in the biggest game for them (and USC). USC is also 5-5 and the Trojans play Notre Dame the following week. UCLA plays Fresno State in the final week, so if they can win this game they’ll have a great shot at going bowling. UCLA knows this is their best shot too though. This game will be intense! Arizona Wildcats (4-6 Record) Arizona goes to TCU where they are a double digit dog this week. The Wildcats benefited from Houston being dreadful last week, but they have played very poorly in the last few weeks overall. They expected better from this season. It is tough to gauge whether they care a lot or not. New Mexico Lobos (5-6 Record) Bronco Mendenhall has done a great job with this Lobos team. Their expectations were extremely low after the program hadn’t even been competitive in recent seasons. The fact that they even have a shot at a bowl is amazing. New Mexico goes to Hawaii next weekend. That’s a tricky spot with the long travel, but I trust New Mexico to be fully prepared for that contest. UL Monroe Warhawks (5-5 Record) Coach Vincent is another guy who has done a great job this year. ULM was 2-10 and 0-8 in the Sun Belt last year. This team would absolutely love to go to any bowl and get the extra practices to keep things going in a positive direction for next year. A highly motivated team. Virginia Tech (5-5 Record) Virginia Tech is an interesting case. The Hokies had much higher goals for this season. They have been upset multiple times, and injuries are at least part of the reason for their failures this season. They play at Duke and host Virginia in their remaining games. They should want that Virginia game because it is a rivalry, but overall I find it hard to know the motivation of this team for a bowl game in general. UTSA Roadrunners (5-5 Record) UTSA was much better last year, but they lost a bunch of very talented players. Coach Traylor does a good job with this program, and UTSA has improved as the season has gone along. A nice upset win over North Texas last week has this team going in the right direction. They also upset Memphis the week before. They host Temple this week, and I think this group will be focused on getting the job done and reaching another bowl.

CFB: Laying The Points Late in Season

Thursday, Nov 21, 2024

There’s only a couple weeks left in the college football season. There is a big difference in handicapping late regular season games compared to early or middle of the season contests. Does the team with a poor record have a reason to care late in the year? In some cases there are reasons for that team to be trying hard for a new coach. There are also times where specific coaches are great at motivating a team even when they seemingly have little to play for in the larger scheme of things. Still, most of the time these very weak teams struggle late in the regular season.I don’t like to lay a lot of points as a general rule. It doesn’t feel comfortable to me. The numbers show that laying the points late in the regular season is overall a winning strategy though.When does laying the points pay off the best for bettors? From game number 10 until game number 12 of the regular season. Here’s a late season favorites system with the filters: -Game 10-12 of the regular season-Opponent winning percentage (straight up) is less than 50%-The team you are betting on is -16.5 or larger-The team you are betting on has covered at a rate of 55% ATS or lower so far this seasonThe ATS record for this system since 2006 is 201-140 (59% ATS). The thought process for adding the ATS cover rate for the season thus far is getting rid of teams that have covered at a very high rate because the point spread would likely be inflated on those teams by this point in the season.Road teams only in the system listed above are 57-25. A smaller sample size to be sure, but impressive results for the long term. This week, there are five applicable games, including one team (South Alabama) on the road:South Florida -17 vs. TulsaGeorgia -42 vs. MassachusettsTennessee -42 vs. UTEPSouth Alabama -22.5 at Southern MississippiTexas St. -20.5 vs. Georgia St. Don’t be afraid to lay the points late in the regular season. It’s a completely different setup handicapping college football in these situations late in the year.

College Football: 3 Teams Undervalued In The Market

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024

It’s already week nine of the college football season. Where does the time go? I wanted to take a look at a few teams and examine three teams I believe are undervalued in the betting market right now. We’ll look at why they might be overvalued and their remaining schedule. These are not in any specific order. Kansas Jayhawks (1-6 ATS and 2-5 SU) The Kansas Jayhawks have been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this year. I still believe in Lance Leipold as a head coach though. The loss of Andy Kotelnicke as offensive coordinator has been tough to handle for the team. Jalon Daniels has struggled badly for much of the season. Daniels and the Kansas offense broke out with a great performance against a good Houston defense last week. Is it the sign of things to come or not? Kansas is up to 16th in success rate on offense. They have had some terrible field position and haven’t been able to connect on big plays. The offensive line is getting it going though. They are second in offensive line yards for the season. They seem to be finding an identity.Remaining Schedule: at Kansas State, Iowa State, at BYU, Colorado, at BaylorThe Big 12 is highly competitive, so the schedule isn’t an easy one. They’ll be catching points though and I’ll be looking for spots to back them. Akron Zips (2-5 ATS and 1-6 SU) We go under the radar for the second team. The Akron Zips from the MAC. Akron is -6 in TO margin on the season. The Zips have only scored a touchdown on 8 out of 17 trips into the red zone. That should positively regress some in MAC play. The defense is giving up fewer big plays than a year ago. Akron is a decent 84th in defensive line yards this year. Joe Moorhead is a bright offensive mind, and I expect him to be able to get something going against some of the weaker teams in the league.Remaining Schedule: Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, at N Illinois, at Kent State, ToledoAkron has played one of the toughest schedules of a non Power 4 team. The Zips have been tested and I think it will benefit them down the stretch. TCU Horned Frogs (2-5 ATS and 4-3 SU) TCU has seen the ball bounce the other way a lot this year. TCU has forced six fumbles and only recovered one of them. They have also fumbled the ball 14 times and lost 9 of them. They’ve had some very poor fumble luck. They have a -10 TO margin on the season.TCU is a solid 34th in the country in yards per play margin on the season. Defensively, TCU is 12th in passing play success rate allowed. They have the secondary to slow down some of the good passing attacks in the Big 12. Remaining Schedule: Texas Tech, at Baylor, Oklahoma State, Arizona, at CincinnatiThe underlying metrics for this team suggest they have been unlucky. I’ll look for spots to find value backing them.

College Football: 3 Teams Overvalued In The Market

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024

It’s already week nine of the college football season. Where does the time go anyways? I wanted to take a look at a few teams and examine three teams I believe are overvalued in the betting market right now. We’ll look at why they might be overvalued and their remaining schedule. These are not in any specific order. BYU Cougars (6-1 ATS) BYU is having a really good season. They are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the number. I think there are several signs of regression in their statistics though. BYU is 59th in offensive success rate. They have been reliant on being excellent in the red zone (which can be random) and hitting explosive plays. Defensively, BYU is 82nd in defensive line yards. They are 79th in yards per carry allowed. The run defense will be exposed by top rushing attacks. Jake Retzlaff has a history of turning it over and he has been fortunate to not turn it over more several times this year.Remaining Schedule: at UCF, at Utah, Kansas, at Arizona State, HoustonThere isn’t a layup of a game on this schedule. The Utah game doesn’t look nearly as imposing as it would have before their injury woes. Arizona State on the road is a tough and Skattebo will be running a lot on this BYU defense. Illinois Fighting Illini (5-1-1 ATS) Illinois is 6-1 straight up and 5-1-1 ATS this year. Bret Bielema’s team is certainly better than preseason expectations, but I don’t think they are as good as many believe they are now. Illinois is 69th in the nation in yards per play margin. They are +7 in turnover margin. Luke Altmeyer has thrown only one interception this year despite having 9 turnover worthy plays according to PFF. The Illinois defense is 112th in success rate allowed. They are 124th in defensive line yards. Illinois has already allowed 20 sacks on offense. This isn’t the profile of a really good team.Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, Minnesota, Michigan State, at Rutgers, at NorthwesternThe rest of the schedule is fairly easy outside of the game at Oregon. Still, I think laying points with this team is dangerous given their clear weaknesses. Memphis Tigers (4-3 ATS) Memphis is 6-1 straight up this year, but they aren’t playing like a top notch team. Memphis is +10 in turnover margin this season. They have recovered 9 fumbles lost by the opposition this year, which is the most in the country. Memphis is only 60th in the nation in yards per play margin though, and they have played the 117th toughest schedule in the country (very easy) according to Jeff Sagarin. Memphis’ defense is giving up loads of explosive plays. Opponents have 33 plays of 20 yards or more on them already this year. The Memphis passing game is 87th in pass play success rate on the season. Remaining schedule: Charlotte, at UTSA, Rice, UAB, at TulaneThis is an easy schedule the rest of the way too on the whole. The game at Tulane could be a massive one for both teams! Memphis has played down to weak opponents in the past couple years though, so I’m cautious laying big numbers with them.

Late Regular Season MLB Betting: 4 Tips For Betting Late in the Year

Friday, Sep 13, 2024

It is getting very late in the MLB regular season. This is a really long grind. No other major sport has this long of a regular season. It can make betting on baseball very unique. The end of the regular season is just a little more than two weeks away. Let’s take a look at four tips for betting on MLB late in the regular season. Be Selective- This isn’t the time of the season to just spray the board and go all in. There are tons of new players on the field who we don’t really have a good feel for yet. Starting pitchers pitching in their first or second game in the majors can be very volatile. I try to stay away from those games. Sometimes the best bet is to pass on a game. Saving yourself from taking a loser is well worth it. Handicap Motivation (Understand Others Do Too Though) Yes you should handicap motivation late in the regular season. It would be crazy not to at least consider whether the team you are looking to bet on truly cares or not. Importantly though, this cannot be the only thing you consider. Price is extremely important and the prices can get absolutely out of control this time of the year. Do you really want to lay -450 in MLB? I can’t do it! Especially in the final weekend of the season, this gets to be too crowded of a wagering strategy. Handicap Weather- As we get very late into the season, the weather can be changing a lot in some parts of the country. You’ll see some places where the heat and humidity continue late into September. You’ll also be seeing some places where cooler weather is prevailing and winds are blowing in and making it very tough to hit the ball out of the ballpark. Totals betting late in the regular season requires a lot of weather handicapping. Look For Hot Underdogs- Baseball is a streaky sport. Every single year there are a couple teams who get hot late in the season who aren’t very good. They don’t even have anything to play for as a team, but there are plenty of young guys with talent looking to prove a point. You can catch some teams like this at good plus money prices in the last week or two of the season. If you see a high ceiling on those players and that specific team, these are chances worth taking. End of the regular season betting is much different than the rest of the season. Pick your spots carefully!

College Football Betting: Dogs Dominate Early- What Now?

Friday, Sep 13, 2024

We are two weeks into the college football season. Underdogs are 101-77-2 ATS to start out the season. That is 56.7% ATS. Just start blindly betting all underdogs right? Easy! If you’ve been betting for very long, you know it isn’t that easy.Underdogs have cashed at a high rate so far this year, but the oddsmakers and the marketplace in general are quick to react to things like this. You’ll start paying a sort of tax on the underdogs. The more the word gets out that underdogs are cashing at a high rate, the worse the prices on those underdogs will get.Why have underdogs cashed at such a high rate so far this year? First, the under is hitting 56% of the time so far this year. We know that unders and underdogs are correlated in general, so that is a big help. Second, there have been several rule changes in college football. The two minute timeout shouldn’t make any difference to ATS bets. The helmet communications could have an impact of some kind. The fact that both offenses and defenses can communicate with their staffs have led to some changes. It has slowed the overall pace of the game down. A slower pace lends itself to unders and underdogs. The defenses have possibly been able to adjust a bit better.We’ve seen the market move toward the under in a lot of games in week three. I don’t think the under will continue to be a free wager. I also don’t think the underdog will continue to cover at this rate. This isn’t some really small market in a third world country. There is a lot of money coming into the college football betting market. What to do now? I would closely watch the movement of the marketplace as a whole. Do underdogs continue to take money? If so, look to grab favorites later in the week instead of earlier. If you like a large underdog, I would look to take that earlier in the week than normal in the short term. You have to be willing to make adjustments quickly in college football, but you don’t want to change your whole betting strategy based on a couple of weeks of data.

College Football: Two Season Win Total Unders

Friday, Aug 23, 2024

College football season is here! It’s been a long wait, but we are back in business. I’ve had a lot of success with season win totals in the past. Two years ago I went 12-3 on season win totals. Last year I went 12-4-1 on season win totals.With the season about to start, I wanted to cover two season win total “unders” I like and fill you in on why I like them.College Football Season Win Totals: Two Unders Old Dominion under 4.5 Old Dominion won six games last year, but they were extremely fortunate to get to six wins. All six wins came in the final minute. They beat Texas A&M Commerce by one point because of a missed 2 point conversion. They were down 10 points to Georgia State late in the fourth before a blocked field goal, safety, and 4th and goal touchdown led to one of the most improbable wins of the season.The offensive line allowed 61 sacks and they are about as bad as you’ll see on the offensive line in the country. The running back and wide receiver units are a clear weakness. The secondary is a huge weakness, and Old Dominion will be torn up in the air by many opponents this season. The special teams unit is very weak.They will be underdogs of a touchdown or more in seven games. They shouldn’t be favored by more than a point or two in a single game all year. I don’t think they can get to five wins. The schedule is tougher this year, and they weren’t as good as their record indicated last season. Ohio under 6.5 Ohio returns two starters on offense and two starters on defense. The fact that this team has been good in recent years means very little to this season. They had two good quarterbacks in Rourke and Harris last season. Both of them transferred out and Parker Navarro is expected to start at signal caller. That’s a significant downgrade. The top six wide receivers from last year are all gone. They lost their star tight end to Ohio State. Who are they going to throw the ball to? Ohio lost stars on the defensive line and at linebacker. A team that has consistently been very good against the run is likely to struggle to stop the ground game this season.Ohio should be an underdog of more than a touchdown in four games. I consider those nearly unwinnable for this team. They should be a favorite in just five games. They’ll only be favored by more than a touchdown twice.

College Football: Two Season Win Total Overs

Friday, Aug 23, 2024

College football season is here! It’s been a long wait, but we are back in business. I’ve had a lot of success with season win totals in the past. Two years ago I went 12-3 on season win totals. Last year I went 12-4-1 on season win totals.With the season about to start, I wanted to cover two season win total “overs” I like and fill you in on why I like them.College Football Season Win Totals: Two Overs Sam Houston State over 4.5- The Sam Houston State Bearkats went 3-9 last year. They started the season 0-6, before going 3-3 in the final six games of the season. Sam Houston State was very close in many of their losses. That includes a 21-16 loss to the powerful Liberty Flames. Only one of their nine losses was by more than two touchdowns. The Bearkats offense was horrible early in the season, but they started picking up their level quite a bit late in the season. Conference USA is the weakest of all of the conferences. That gives a team who finished a little below the middle of the conference a real chance to make a jump without getting far better. Liberty is better than everyone else. Jacksonville State is likely a little too good as well. I think Sam Houston State has as much of a chance as anyone else. I think Sam Houston State will be favored in five games this season. They will only be an underdog of more than 10 points three times this season. They are definitely capable of pulling some upsets. Appalachian State over 8 The Appalachian State Mountaineers should be favored in either 10 or 11 games this season. With a season total of eight, we have a nice cushion here. Other than the game at Clemson, they should have a really solid chance in every game. Even their game against Liberty is in Boone, and this is a tremendous home field advantage. Appalachian State has a really good quarterback and a group of excellent wide receivers. I think their wide receivers and tight ends are the best in the Sun Belt. Shrader was a nice pickup in the transfer portal to help their offensive line. The Mountaineers brought in four excellent transfers in the secondary to shore up their pass defense too. Appalachian State has an excellent special teams unit, and I think that will win them a close game or too.I feel like eight is the floor for this team, and the ceiling is 11-1 or so. I’m happy to bet the over here.

3 ACC Teams To Watch

Friday, Jul 26, 2024

ACC Football: 3 Teams To WatchCollege football is less than one month away! It will be here before you know it. I’ve been doing deep dives into the teams one by one. I’ve recently been in the ACC. I want to take a look at three ACC teams I’ve got my eye on in one way or another for the season ahead. Georgia Tech- I really like Offensive Coordinator Buster Faulkner. Haynes King was fantastic in Faulkner’s system last year, and I see no reason to expect anything other than a very good season from King. This is a quarterback who wasn’t put in the right position to succeed at Texas A&M, but he was very highly touted and he showed why last year. I don’t think Georgia Tech’s offensive success last year was a fluke at all. Head Coach Brent Key knows offensive lines very well and the Yellow Jackets offensive line will be a major strength this year. They averaged 5.4 yards per carry last year and allowed only 15 sacks. Can the Georgia Tech defense improve? That is up in the air. I expect big numbers from the offense though. Virginia Tech- Kyron Drones should have been starting from the beginning of the year last year in Blacksburg. Drones really took off late last year as he learned the offense much better. The Hokies are much improved at wide receiver with Jennings and Gallo back from injury. The offensive line is the one question mark I have on offense. If they can gel, this could be a special offense. The Hokies is very strong in the secondary and solid on the defensive line as well. Virginia Tech’s special teams are so good that they will win a game or two solely because of that unit. The Hokies are a team I like as a futures play. The potential upside here is high. Duke- The Blue Devils lost so much in the offseason. They lost a top notch coach in Mike Elko. They lost a star quarterback in Riley Leonard. They lost their top running back in Jordan Waters. Manny Diaz has a lot to prove as a head coach. Murphy could be a good quarterback in the right system, but I’m not convinced this is the spot. Duke’s offensive line is going to be a major weakness. The Blue Devils lost their top five defensive linemen and are going to struggle in a big way to stop the run. Diaz should do a good job coaching up the secondary, so I see Duke as a matchup specific team. The Blue Devils should do far better against pass heavy teams than run heavy teams.

8 SEC Football Betting Tidbits

Friday, Jul 26, 2024

College football is less than one month away! It will be here before you know it. I’ve been doing deep dives into the teams one by one. I’ve recently looked closely at the SEC. It’s a major conference that gets a lot of coverage. Let’s take a look at 8 under the radar tidbits to help you bet the SEC in the season ahead.8 SEC Tidbits- Early Season Betting LSU- Brian Kelly has been fantastic in the underdog role. How good? Kelly is 40-23-2 ATS in his last 65 games as an underdog. The Tigers have some tough spots in their schedule and will be an underdog some this year. Texas- Their first year in the SEC is crucial for the Longhorns. If they can fix their red zone woes this offense could be special. They were bottom ten in the nation in red zone efficiency on offense. Was it play calling or was it the players not coming through in key moments? Georgia- The Georgia Bulldogs have an absolutely amazing looking depth chart in the trenches. They have highly touted players three and four deep on both the offensive and defensive line. This is the reason I have them as the favorite for the national title this year. Georgia can suffer injuries in these spots and experience very little drop off. Tennessee- A defense that has a major strength and a major weakness. The Volunteers defensive line is excellent, and I find it to be underrated. They can dominant the weaker offensive lines that they go up against. On the other hand, the Volunteers secondary is a weakness. They brought in MTSU and Temple starters to help try to shore things up, but I’m not sure they are enough for the SEC. South Carolina- A couple key points here. First, The Gamecocks will likely run the football a lot this year with Sellers or Ashford at quarterback and Sanders and company at running back. The special teams will still be good, but I don’t think they will be quite as great now that Pete Lembo(special teams guru) left. Mississippi State- Jeff Lebby is the new coach, and he wants his teams to play ultra fast. The Bulldogs are playing at a major talent disadvantage though. They are learning a new offense and the wide receivers just aren’t up to par for what he needs. Will they continue to play fast even when they are taking their lumps? Kentucky- The Kentucky Wildcats once again have an elite defensive line. Mark Stoops is doing this year in and year out. They allowed just 3.3 yards per carry and had 33 sacks last year. I think they could be even better this season. Florida- This could be the most difficult college football schedule I’ve ever seen. I continue to think that Billy Napier is getting a bit of a raw deal from some Gators fans. However, I have to wonder if this team gets off to a slow start whether they will be able to keep battling all the way or not. The first few games are huge for both Napier’s future and the Gators chances this season.

MLB Umpire Handicapping: 3 Under Umpires

Thursday, Jun 20, 2024

Handicapping Major League Baseball means taking a look at a whole bunch of different factors. I closely examine umpires for their tendencies when they are behind home plate. Why wouldn’t you want to consider this information? The home plate umpire has so much control over the game. Today, I want to take a look at three umpires who have a long history of being good for under bettors (pitcher-friendly). Keep an eye out for these umpires behind the plate. All statistics mentioned below are 5 year averages for the last five full seasons. Phil Cuzzi (67 Unders 48 Overs) (65.23% of pitches a strike) (8.87 runs per game)Phil Cuzzi has been a Major League umpire for a long time, and he has been consistently a strike caller. We looked at some of the top over umpires in my last article, and we saw guys calling about 63% of pitches a strike. Cuzzi is at 65.23% of pitches a strike. That’s more than a two percent difference, and that makes a massive difference when you consider how large of a sample size it is every game. There are a lot of pitches thrown every single contest. Cuzzi is also third highest of any umpire in the majors with a 3.14 strikeout/walk ratio. You better be swinging the bat when Cuzzi is behind home plate!Andy Fletcher (70 Unders 41 Overs) (64.25% of pitches a strike) (8.31 runs per game)Fletcher has had a ton of low scoring games in the last five years. His 63% under rate is impressive over a five year span. The 8.31 runs per game scored in Fletcher’s games are the second lowest of any umpire during that time. His strikeout/walk ratio is a solid 2.91. Fletcher is interesting because earlier in his career he was a bit of an over umpire, but in recent years he has become a consistent under umpire. Brian O’Nora (58 Unders 47 Overs) (64.49% of pitches a strike) (8.51 runs per game)O’Nora is impressive for his consistency toward the under and being a strike caller. Many umpires fluctuate back and forth. O’Nora continually is far above average in strikes called. O’Nora also has a high 2.89 strikeout/walk ratio over the last five years. His runs per game rank in the ten lowest of all umpires in baseball.

MLB: 3 Over Umpires (Batter-Friendly Umpires)

Wednesday, Jun 19, 2024

Handicapping Major League Baseball means taking a look at a whole bunch of different factors. I closely examine umpires for their tendencies when they are behind home plate. Why wouldn’t you want to consider this information? The home plate umpire has so much control over the game. Today, I want to take a look at three umpires who have a long history of being good for over bettors (hitter friendly). Keep an eye out for these umpires behind the plate. All statistics mentioned below are 5 year averages for the last five full seasons. Alfonso Marquez (79 Overs 55 Unders) (63.02% of pitches strikes) (9.79 runs per game) Marquez has consistently shown to be a good over umpire over the last few seasons. He ranks among the ten lowest umpires in percentages of pitches called a strike. His strikeout/walk ratio is also a very low 2.39. That is also among the ten lowest in the majors. 59% of games going over the total and all the underlying numbers pointing strongly toward the over is enough to make him a top over umpire.2. Mark Wegner (60 Overs 47 Unders) (63.09% of pitches strikes) (9.97 runs per game) Wegner hasn’t done quite as many games behind the plate as Marquez, but if anything his underlying numbers are even stronger pointing toward an over umpire. Wegner’s strikeout/walk ratio is an extremely low 2.23. This suggests Wegner is very hesitant to ring up batters on that third strike. The last couple years Wegner’s numbers have been even stronger toward the over than the overall five year trend. 3. Edwin Moscoso (73 Overs 43 Unders) (62.75% of pitches strikes) (9.98 runs per game) Moscoso has the single lowest called strikes percentage of any regular MLB umpire during this period. He consistently pinches the strike zone and makes it very tough on pitchers. In this time period, 62.9% of his games have gone over the posted total. His strikeout/walk ratio is a really impressive 2.22. Moscoso is making it really hard for the pitcher to get a called strike three. He is a younger umpire, but he is one to watch.

5 Starting Pitchers Who Should Experience Positive Regression

Monday, May 27, 2024

I recently looked at five starting pitchers who should experience negative regression. Let’s take a look at a few who should experience positive regression. Keep in mind that positive regression doesn’t mean a player is improving, it just means that a player is moving back to its previously expected value (mean). With advanced statistics we can get a pretty good picture of guys who could experience this. Here are five to keep an eye on. These are not in any particular order. Patrick Sandoval (5.60 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 4.02 SIERA) Sandoval has a strikeout rate of 23.1%. He is elite at missing bats. Opponents have an unsustainable batting average on balls in play of .348. He has left only 62.3% of runners on base. The knock on Sandoval is he walks too many batters. Sandoval isn’t an elite pitcher, but he is clearly better than his 5.60 ERA. A potential buy low candidate here. Jack Flaherty (3.84 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 2.27 SIERA) Flaherty has been up and down throughout his career. He is throwing the ball extremely well for the Tigers this season. Flaherty is striking out 11.95 batters per nine innings. Opponents have a .340 batting average on balls in play. The Tigers in general are much more competitive than they have been, and I think Flaherty is a pitcher to watch the rest of the way. His velocity is solid and his walk rate is just 1.33 walks per nine innings. Excellent. Tyler Glasnow (3.09 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 2.60 SIERA) Glasnow has top of the line stuff. His fastball averages 96.3 mph and his slider and curveball are tremendous strikeout pitches. Glasnow has had some bad luck in recent starts, so if someone wants to get too low on him I would be happy to buy stock. Glasnow has a superb 0.91 WHIP on the season. His hard hit batted ball percentage is below 30%. George Kirby (4.33 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 3.47 SIERA) Kirby is still a good young pitcher. He is only 26 so his prime is still ahead of him. Kirby was excellent in each of the last two seasons, but his numbers this year haven’t been as good. I expect him to bounce back. Kirby has elite ccontrol. He is walking less than one batter per nine innings. The lack of free passes is a huge boost to long term performance. He is great at inducing soft contact from hitters too. Kirby is someone I’ll look to back in certain spots going forward. Pablo Lopez (5.25 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 2.96 SIERA) Lopez is a great candidate for positive regression in the coming weeks and months. Lopez has a strikeout rate of a whopping 27.7%. He has an extremely low walk rate of 4.0%. His left on base rate is very low at 63.6% on the season. Lopez has a walk rate of less than one batter per nine innings in his last five starts. He has three walks and 32 strikeouts in that time. His home run rate allowed should come down, and he is still a quality pitcher.

5 Starting Pitchers Who Should Regress- Sell High?

Tuesday, May 21, 2024

We are about two months into the season. Now is a good time to look at starting pitchers and who is overachieving based on both expectations and advanced metrics. A deep dive into the profile of these pitchers can give some great perspective. Here are five starters who are likely to struggle to keep on the same path they are on so far this season. Jose Berrios (2.82 ERA, 4.68 FIP, and 4.19 SIERA) Berrios is bottom 15 in the majors in hard hits allowed. His batted ball profiles consistently look poor. Berrios has allowed just a .229 batting average on balls in play so far this season despite giving up a lot of hard hit balls. He has also stranded 88.6% of runners on base thus far this year. Berrios isn’t a new pitcher. He is a veteran who isn’t bad, but he isn’t nearly as good as he looks right now,. Seth Lugo (1.79 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and 3.61 SIERA) Seth Lugo is 34.5 years old. He isn’t some youngster who is breaking out. He is a crafty veteran who has good control and a really good curveball. He has stranded a ridiculous 90.1% runners on base this season. Lugo has pitched really well in his most recent outings, but he has also had the good fortune of going against some of the worst offenses in the majors. Carlos Rodon (3.27 ERA, 4.48 FIP, and 3.88 SIERA) Rodon is a quality pitcher so I’m not terrible anxious to sell high on him. His advanced metrics definitely suggests his ERA should be going up though. Rodon is stranding 85.9% of runners on base. Rodon is a tricky handicap because he can be absolutely lights out, but he also has the potential to get hit around and give up a big inning at any time. Jordan Hicks (2.38 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 4.10 SIERA) Hicks has been one of the best stories in baseball. His transition from the closer role to a very good starter has been a ton of fun. Hicks is one to keep watching closely since he does carry very low home run rates and he has great movement on his pitches. Can he handle the huge jump in workload as we get later in the season though? Trevor Williams (2.35 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and 4.23 SIERA) Williams is 32 years old and he has consistently been an average or below average starting pitcher. The last two years he has allowed 1.20 and 2.12 home runs per nine innings pitched. So far this year he has allowed a mind boggling low 0.20 home runs per nine innings pitched. His BABIP allowed is only .267 too. Williams doesn’t have swing and miss stuff. He is pitching above his head right now, and I think he is a sell high candidate.

Five MLB Teams Set To Regress

Friday, Apr 26, 2024

After a month of the Major League Baseball season, I wanted to take a look at five teams that I think could be good to fade soon because I expect regression. Kansas City Royals (16-10 Record) The Royals are much better than last year, there is no denying that fact. However, they are 12-5 at home this year and just 4-5 on the road. They are going to have to play on the road quite a bit in the coming weeks. This is a young team and they are going to have some struggles at times. The Royals pitching staff is fourth in the majors in ERA so far this year. That will come down to earth in time. They are 4th in the majors in ERA and 27th in SIERA. Chicago Cubs (16-9 Record) The Cubs are off to a red hot start. They had a season win total of 83.5, so they were expected to be right around .500. I expect the Cubs to top that season win total, but I think they have too many holes to continue at this pace. The bullpen is still a question mark. The offense is good, but are they as good as they have played thus far? The Cubs are also a public team, so the prices here could get out of control in a hurry. Cleveland Guardians (18-7 Record) I think the Cleveland Guardians are a solid team. They have a lot of upside potential with their bullpen being elite. Still, I think they will regress toward the mean. The Guardians have played the easiest schedule in baseball so far this season. Cleveland has been weak against left handed pitching in the last few years. So far this year, Cleveland is third in weighted on base average against lefties. This has been helped by a really high .341 batting average on balls in play. Cleveland is a good team, but not 18-7 good. Oakland Athletics (10-16 Record) How can can a team that is 10-16 be due for regression? Oakland had a season win total of 57.5 or so at most books before the season. They have won 38.5% of their games so far this season. Oakland is playing in front of no one at home. At this point, I think them playing at home is a disadvantage if anything. The A’s will have a hard time staying motivated through this crazy season. I think they get worse. New York Yankees (17-9) The Yankees bullpen has a 2.86 ERA, but a 4.06 SIERA. They have won quite a few close games that could have gone either way. The Yankees have played a slightly easier schedule than the MLB average so far. That won’t continue since they play in the extremely competitive AL East. The Yankees are as public of a team as you’ll find and with this early success, their prices will be quite expensive.

MLB’s Six Best Bullpens So Far - Are They Actually Good?

Friday, Apr 26, 2024

We are a month into the MLB season. It is getting far enough into the season now to look at season to date data and compare it to the advanced stats to see what units are actually as good as they appear. Let’s take a look at the top six bullpens in the majors by ERA this year. I’ll also list their FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and SIERA (Skilled Interactive Earned Run Average). These are two solid predictive advanced statistics. We’ll take a look at the top six team by team. Detroit Tigers (2.06 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 3.62 SIERA) The Tigers have easily the best bullpen ERA in the majors so far this year, but they are almost exactly middle of the pack in FIP and SIERA. I think Detroit’s bullpen has enough depth that they are better than league average, but they aren’t going to be able to keep up their amazing start either. The Tigers have allowed a batting average on balls in play of only .214, which is not sustainable. Cleveland Guardians (2.24 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.85 SIERA) Cleveland is first in both FIP and SIERA, so the advanced statistics are loving this Cleveland bullpen. There are no major signs of regression for Cleveland. Their batting average on balls in play allowed is .274. This Guardians bullpen is legitimately excellent! Clase is dominant and Gaddis has stepped up and been really good this year too. Seattle Mariners (2.58 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 3.33 SIERA) A low .241 batting average on balls in play suggests some regression is coming for this group. They have also stranded 80% of runners on base. The Mariners bullpen walks too many guys to remain this elite. Speier is very good, but opponents won’t continue hitting only .143 against him. Minnesota Twins (2.72 ERA, 3.42 FIP, 2.76 SIERA) Minnesota is a top five bullpen according to all the advanced statistics. It has helped them that they have played a relatively easy schedule, but I do think the Twins bullpen is very good. They have a bunch of guys with excellent swing and miss stuff. A consistently good unit! Milwaukee Brewers (2.85 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 3.4 SIERA) Opponents have only a .239 batting average on balls in play which suggests regression to the mean could be coming. However, the Brewers Devin Williams is expected back around the All Star Break, and he is clearly their best relief pitcher. In the interim, the Brewers bullpen likely comes back down to earth. Later in the season, I think they’ll be elite again. New York Yankees (2.86 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 4.06 SIERA) The Yankees bullpen is a decent one. Clay Holmes is an elite reliever. The problem I have with the Yankees bullpen is their depth isn’t great. I don’t trust Luke Weaver to be good on a consistent basis. Victor Gonzalez has a 2.89 ERA and a 5.82 FIP. This bullpen is overrated right now.

MLB Early Season Betting Tips/Strategies

Friday, Mar 29, 2024

It’s the start of another Major League Baseball season. Every team has tons of hope in late March, and we will learn a lot about guys in new situations in the coming months. Let’s take a look at a few key strategies to use early in the season betting on baseball.*Check the weather reports especially closely in the early season. The baseball simply doesn’t fly very well some areas with the cooler weather early in the season. The wind is a big key, and there are some parks where wind blowing in is a huge factor. Everyone knows Wrigley Field is one to watch, but pay close attention to Fenway and Progressive Field as well.The under can have value in these spots.*Look for spots to take road underdogs in the very early going. If you just blindly bet moneyline road underdogs in Major League Baseball in the first ten days of the season, you would have cleared some serious cash in the last 15 years. My speculation is that those underdogs are highly motivated early in the season because they are often coming off a poor season and everyone has hope in the first ten games of the season. As a general rule too, I believe home field advantage is overrated by many bettors. *Remember to factor in defense in your handicap. Too many baseball bettors don’t consider the defenses of the two teams. The starting pitchers, offense, and bullpen are clearly very important. However, whether a team has a strong defense and saves runs or is costing themselves runs by committing errors is a big key. I find that this is even more important early in the season. More errors are committed early in the season when players aren’t quite back into the swing of things. Make sure you are focusing on teams who are at least decent defensively.*Bankroll management- Bankroll management is always key in betting, but being patient and pragmatic with your wagers early in a long baseball season is extremely important. There is a very long season ahead. Use a consistent strategy and don’t overextend in betting. *Don’t overreact to spring training stats- Some bettors look far too much at spring training stats when placing their bets for early season baseball. For younger players the spring training stats matter more, but in proven experienced players I would be careful not to overreact. Many pitchers use the preseason to work on new pitches and see if it will work out. I suggest for veteran players that you use previous seasons data specifically on the early season far more than spring training stats.It’s a long grind of a season. Enjoy the ride!

NBA Late Season Buy Low Sell High

Friday, Mar 29, 2024

We’re entering the final weeks of the NBA regular season. Most teams have played 72 or 73 games. I wanted to take a look at how teams are being valued in the betting marketplace and see if there could be some good buy low or sell high opportunities coming to finish the regular season or even at the start of the playoffs in some cases.2 Teams To Buy Low Cleveland Cavs (35-38 ATS) The Cavs are a little below .500 against the spread for the season, and they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Cleveland started the season well, but has been cold of late. Donovan Mitchell is getting healthy again and Evan Mobley is back in the lineup again too. Cleveland’s defense gives them great upside. They are still within reach for the second seed in the Eastern Conference. I like this team going to the finish of the regular season. Phoenix Suns (30-41 ATS) The Phoenix Suns just defeated the Denver Nuggets in Denver. Phoenix has been wildly inconsistent, but there is no denying their upside. Phoenix is in the seventh spot in the playoff standings right now. If they move up one more spot they could avoid the play-in tournament. Phoenix has been playing better defense of late, and we know they have a ton of scoring options. They play the Clippers twice and then Sacramento and Minnesota in the final games of the season. 2 Teams to Sell High Orlando Magic (47-25 ATS) The Orlando Magic have been a money making machine this season. I think they are starting to be a little overpriced in the market. Orlando’s home/road splits this season are drastic. The Magic play several key games on the road late in the regular season. I can’t trust them in those spots. Orlando has a three game road trip to Houston, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia in April. This is a much improved team that has been fun to watch, but I don’t think betting them going forward will be a money making strategy. Boston Celtics (38-32 ATS) Boston will be the number one overall seed in the Eastern Conference. Boston is clearly the best team in the Eastern Conference now, but between now and the end of the regular season I think it could be dangerous to back the Celtics. They have plenty of reasons to sit key players and prepare for the playoffs rather than trying to cover numbers in late March and early April. Situational betting late in the NBA season is crucial. I also think that looking to grab teams out of favor and sell teams the market is too high on is a great exercise this time of the year.

Smaller Conference Teams- Who Could Be Cinderella?

Wednesday, Feb 28, 2024

March is almost here, and the NCAA Tournament is just around the corner. Maybe you are on the lookout for futures value. Or maybe you just want to take a closer look at smaller conference teams before the conference tournaments and NCAA Tournament arrive. I thought it would be good to take a look at five smaller conference teams I believe have a chance to be Cinderella. I’ll also take a look at why they have the chance to pull some upsets.Note that I’m going to leave the obvious teams like St. Mary’s and Florida Atlantic out of this discussion. Princeton Tigers- The Princeton Tigers went to the Sweet 16 last year. I don’t think we should rule out the chance that they could go to the Sweet 16 again this season. Xaivian Lee is a superstar who leads the team. Princeton is second in the nation in turnover percentage on offense. They take great care of the basketball. The Tigers are also top 35 in the country in both defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling. They are great at forcing the opponent to play at their pace. McNeese State Cowboys- It isn’t very often that you’ll see a Southland Conference team on this type of a list, but McNeese state deserves the love. They went on the road and beat a solid VCU team to start this season. They also won by 11 at Michigan. I know Michigan isn’t very good, but a double digit win at a Big Ten school is still impressive. The Cowboys are 35th in effective field goal percentage offense. They are 53rd in effective field goal percentage defense. This kind of balance can lead to success in March. Appalachian State Mountaineers- Dustin Kerns is a really good basketball coach. He has this Mountaineers team playing excellent basketball. Appalachian State won a home game against Auburn earlier this year. They also went to James Madison and won. They beat the Dukes at home as well. James Madison will make a lot of lists for teams capable of pulling upsets (they could), but most will overlook Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are 8th in effective field goal percentage defense. I would rather trust an elite defense than a team full of long range shooters in March. Indiana State Sycamores- The secret might be out about Indiana State more than the three teams ahead of them, but I had to give them some love here. Josh Schertz is one of the best coaches in the country that most people haven’t heard of. The Sycamores play ultra fast, and they are all about looks at the rim or from 3 point range (no mid range jumpers). They are better on offense than defense, but the Syacamores are top 20 in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage and defending without fouling. Samford Bulldogs- Bucky McMillan’s style of play is so much fun to watch. If you haven’t had a chance to watch this team play, do yourself a favor and watch them when you get a chance. Samford is 11th in the nation in tempo. Their full court pressure has them at 13th in the country in forced turnover percentage. They have one of the deepest benches in the country. They are great at forcing the opponent to push the pace even if they don’t want to. They wouldn’t be a fun matchup for a highly ranked seed. I think several Mountain West teams have chances to make a run in the NCAA Tournament as well. However, those teams aren’t under the radar to hardcore college hoops fans, and I wanted to dive deeper for potential value here.

College Basketball Late Season Totals Trends

Tuesday, Feb 27, 2024

We are definitely in the late regular season period now in college basketball. In this period, you have to handicap a little bit differently. Some teams will be shutting it down at least for the regular season. Other teams are playing for a conference title.In this article, I’ll be giving a couple systems to show how totals typically trend in the late season in college hoops. It will give you an overall idea of how to view totals betting in the last three or four games of the regular season for each teamBad Teams Late Season OversTeams with a winning percentage of 50% or lower on the season who are matched up against each other with the following filters-Game 21 of the season or later for the team -Both teams have cashed the over on 45% or fewer of their games so far this season-The posted total is 143 points or lowerIn these games the over is 277-209 dating back to 2005. That is 57% wins for the over. The ROI here is an excellent 10%. This angle shows that late season games between two teams who have little to play for certainly lean toward the over. That is especially the case when it is two teams who have played lower scoring games earlier in the season. The results get worse if you include teams who have trended over and games that have higher totals. Good Teams Late Season Low UndersOverall strong teams playing against each other late in the regular season tends to mean there is a lot more on the line. Let’s take a look at an example of a system that has been profitable on unders late in the year. Teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher matched up against each other with the following filters-Game 23 of the season or later-A total of 136.5 or lowerThe under is 508-434 (53.9% unders) with an ROI of 4%. This angle hasn’t been as strong as the over angle with bad teams, but it does still show a lean toward lower scoring games with good teams late. If you include all games it is about 52.5% to the under, but if you filter out by the lower totals it bumps up to about 54%. This is interesting to me, and I believe it shows that the games with elite defenses can be real rock fights very late in the regular season. Keep both of these totals trends in mind as you handicap the rest of the regular season in college hoops.

College Basketball January Update- Four Teams To Buy Low On

Thursday, Jan 18, 2024

I recently took a look at four teams you might want to sell high on based on multiple factors. Now, I want to take a look at four college basketball teams you might want to buy low on in the coming weeks and months. Missouri Tigers (4-13 ATS) Missouri is a miserable 4-13 ATS so far this year. I don’t think Missouri is a good team by any means, but the Tigers are likely a bit undervalued in the market at this point. Missouri has played a pretty difficult schedule thus far. The Tigers have also had terrible “free throw defense” with opponents shooting a whopping 76.9% from the free throw line against them. That should regress to the mean in time. Missouri does struggle on the glass, so I would be careful about backing them against great rebounding teams. In general though, teams with this bad of an ATS record in the middle of the season have been good teams to back since the market is so low on them. Detroit Titans (5-14 ATS) This is a team I’m buying VERY LOW on. Detroit is a ridiculous 0-19 on the season. There are obvious buy signs on this team right now though. First, Detroit just got back their star Jayden Stone. They have easily covered both spreads against N Kentucky and Robert Morris (2 OT loss) with Stone back in the lineup. He’s their best player by a huge margin, and he’ll make a big difference for the team. Also, Detroit has been very unlucky this season. Shot Quality ranks them as the single unluckiest team in the country (362 teams). They are a bad team, but I think they’ll be pretty good ATS moving forward. Pacific Tigers (3-14 ATS) Another really ugly one- by now you are probably understanding the theme here. These are not easy teams to bet, but these types of teams often have value at this point. Pacific has been on the road for three straight games, but they have quite a few home games coming up in the near future. Pacific took a very good San Francisco team to overtime at home in their last home contest. The Tigers beat Cal on the road earlier this year. This team returned a lot of the same guys they had last year, and last season this was an excellent offense. I expect their very low shooting percentages to improve as the season goes along. UMKC Roos (5-11 ATS) UMKC is one of those rare teams in the Summit League that tries to win lower scoring games by slowing things down and winning with defense. They have committed far too many fouls so far this season. UMKC is an excellent rebounding team and that gives them a nice matchup advantage over several of the teams in the Summit. They blew out both Oral Roberts and Portland State at home. Those are two solid teams. The upside is there for UMKC, but they need to be a little more consistent. The marketplace is very low on them now.

College Basketball January Update: Four Teams to Sell High On

Wednesday, Jan 17, 2024

I like to think of the college basketball betting marketplace like the stock market. You are always wanting to buy low and sell high. It’s the middle of January now, and teams are in the middle of conference season. Let’s take a look at four teams that could be good sell high candidates- and we’ll also look at why they might be a team to sell/fade. BYU Cougars (12-5 ATS) BYU is a good team, but I don’t think they are as good as their ATS record would indicate. BYU is ranked in the KenPom Top 10. This is a team that is holding opponents to 27% shooting from 3 point range. Their defense is improved, but it isn’t this good. BYU has only played three road games so far this season. The Cougars are in a much tougher conference now in the Big 12. There are no weak teams to beat up like BYU saw in the WCC in previous seasons. BYU relies on the three point shot as much as anyone in the country, and those jump shooting teams can struggle on the road in hostile territory. St. Joe’s Hawks (11-6 ATS) It looked like this team had turned a corner in non-conference play, but their inconsistencies are showing up once again in Atlantic 10 play. St. Joe’s went from playing very good defense early in the season to giving up 1.11 points per possession (poor) in A10 play. They have played only the 301st toughest schedule in the country, and now they are about to play quite a few solid teams in conference. The Hawks have great wins over Villanova and Princeton, but they also lost to Texas A&M Commerce and Rhode Island. Radford Highlanders (12-4 ATS) We have to look at under the radar teams as well. The Radford Highlanders are a whopping 12-4 ATS on the season, but I see some concerning signs from them. Radford is allowing 1.131 points per possession in Big South play. This isn’t a conference known for highly efficient offenses either. Radford ranks 340th in the nation in height. The Highlanders rank in the second percentile in the country in quality of shot taken. Radford is unlikely to be able to keep hitting so many tough shots. Radford is also now in a role of laying quite a few points consistently, and I think they could be a good fade moving forward. Minnesota Golden Gophers (14-3 ATS) Back to a big name team for our final look here. The Minnesota Golden Gophers have played the 296th toughest schedule so far this season. I don’t have to tell you that things are about to get a lot tougher for them as they try to navigate through a deep Big Ten Conference. Minnesota has played only three true road games. The Golden Gophers have a great home court advantage, but I don’t trust them to continue to play so well on the road. Minnesota is 11th in the nation in two point field goal percentage offense this season. I don’t think this offense can keep up that level of efficiency. Minnesota is too reliant on Dawson Garcia. Garcia is a good player, but teams in the Big Ten are going to have some better game plans for slowing him down and forcing someone else to beat them.

College Basketball: Mid Major Conferences Betting Notes

Thursday, Dec 28, 2023

Conference play is tipping off in many of the college basketball conferences this week or next week at the latest. I like to cover the mid-major conferences very closely to look for value. I firmly believe that betting the smaller name games is where you can find bigger edges. Let’s take a look at a few conference notes that could help you when you bet on these conference matchups.Big Sky Conference This is a conference where very little defense is played. Over bettors have done very well in this conference. If you can find a team you believe will play good defense consistently in this league, you will likely have found the team that is going to win the conference. The over is at nearly 56% in the last decade in Big Sky games.Eastern Washington played a very tough non-conference schedule. That is a team that I believe is far better than their record would indicate.Metro Atlantic Athletic ConferenceMarist is 9-1 ATS so far this year and their games have gone 8-2 to the under. Coach Dunne is well known for his slow it down style and strong defensive squads. Quinnipiac is 7-3 to the under so far this year, but I think with the pace they are trying to play at this is a team that could trend back toward the over as their numbers get lower and lower with oddsmakers and the betting market adjusting.Missouri Valley ConferenceIndiana State is a really well coached team that is a tough matchup. They play far faster than anyone else in the MVC. Coach Schertz has this program on the rise in a big way. Indiana State is a heavy analytics team. They are going to shoot 3’s or take it to the rim and avoid the mid range jumper. This is a team that could make a run this season.Evansville is 8-2-1 ATS on the season. The Purple Aces are one of the most improved teams in the country. Having said that, I don’t believe they’ll be able to keep covering numbers as easily as they have. This could be a sell high candidate especially when they are laying points in conference play.Southern ConferenceFurman is 3-6-1 ATS this season. The Paladins beat Virginia in the NCAA Tournament last year, and I trust this team to improve a lot when they get healthy. Marcus Foster is arguably their best player and he should be coming back in the next couple weeks. Look for Furman to become a good bet on team in conference play.VMI has decided to run and gun this year and it isn’t working at all. They are the least talented team in the league, and they are getting run off the court in most of their games. VMI will be a big underdog in quite a few games, but with their style of play they risk being blown out over and over. Will they slow things down at some point? Wofford played a very tough non-conference schedule. They also picked up some decent road wins. I think the Terriers offense will put up a lot of points in SoCon action. I’ll be on the watch for some overs or chances to bet on Wofford.

3 Bowl ATS Angles To Watch

Saturday, Dec 23, 2023

College football bowl season is in full swing now. There are several angles to keep an eye on that could help you be successful betting college football during this tricky time of the season. Let’s take a look at three of those angles today. Bowl Angle #1- Underdogs Against The Public- Since 2006 Bowl Underdogs Who Receive 40% or Less of the Bets are 172-127 ATS (57.4%). The public hasn’t done well betting in bowl season. The public generally likes to bet quite a few favorites. In this case, you are simply looking at out of favor underdogs who could hold value because the line has been moved too much in favor of the opposite team.I will note that sometimes the public bet percentages can be a bit shaky. Can you trust that the numbers are perfectly up to date? I’m not so sure. Still, this type of angle is helpful in realizing that heavily public sides have done poorly year after year. Bowl Angle #2- Low ATS Bowl Underdogs. Since 2006 Underdogs who have covered the spread in less than 50% of their regular season games are a whopping 120-88 ATS (57.7% ATS). This angle is all about taking teams that have made it to bowl season, but they aren’t teams who have covered at a high rate throughout the year. The teams with a really high ATS cover rate during the regular season tend to carry a point spread tax on them this time of the year. On the other hand, teams who have covered a small percentage of games, but are still good enough to get into bowl season- these are teams who have carried great value in these postseason contests. I think this is a strong angle that should continue to work in the future. At the date of this publication on December 23, there are seven games to go: Northern Illinois (Dec 23), Tulane (Dec 27), USC (Dec 27), Boston College (Dec 28), Memphis (Dec 29), Toledo (Dec 30) and Wisconsin (Jan 1). Bowl Angle #3 Good Defenses in Bowl Games A Team Who Allows 3.6 Yards Per Carry Or Less and a Maximum of 5 Yards Per Play. These strong defensive teams are 319-243 ATS (56.8% ATS) since 2006 in bowl games.Yes offense is more important than it was in the past when the defenses could just dominate, but defense has still been predictive when it comes to covering spreads in bowl season. The best defenses have been great against the number. Inside this angle, the teams listed above with great defenses who are also underdogs are an impressive 155-103 ATS (60% ATS) with an ROI of 16%. Look for underdogs who are excellent on defense and you’ll have a good starting point. At the date of publication the teams that fit this underdog with a strong defense angle are: Northwestern (Dec 23), Bowling Green (Dec 26), Tulane (Dec 27), Oklahoma (Dec 28), Rutgers- depending on the line at your book (Dec 28), Kentucky (Dec 29), Ole Miss (Dec 30), Maryland (Dec 30), Fla St (Dec 30), Toledo (Dec 30), Alabama (Jan 1), and Wisconsin (Jan 1).

Four College Hoops Teams To Sell High On

Monday, Nov 27, 2023

We’re already almost a month into the college basketball season. A lot of teams have already played six or seven games. Today, I want to take a look at four teams I would consider selling high on. I like to think of the stock market system of buying low and selling high and apply it to sports betting. About the time many others are trying to buy when a team has covered a bunch of games in a row, it is usually a good time to be selling. George Washington (5-2 ATS So Far) George Washington is 6-1 straight up and 5-2 ATS on the season. George Washington is shooting 37% from 3 point range on the season. In the last three years, this team has shot 32% or 33% from long range every single year. They are also shooting 80% from the free throw line this season. Those shooting numbers are very likely to regress toward the mean. George Washington has also committed a very small amount of fouls (6th fewest in FTA/FGA in country) and their defense is likely going to be called for more fouls going forward. Northern Illinois (5-0 ATS) The Northern Illinois Huskies are a perfect 5-0 ATS this year. Out of 362 teams in the country, Northern Illinois ranks as the fifth luckiest team so far this year according to KenPom. Their opponents are shooting just 28% from the three point line on the season. The Huskies have the sixth highest rate of getting to the free throw line in the country. I do think this is a team that is at least somewhat improved, but they aren’t as good as they have looked in the first five games. Butler (6-1 ATS) The Butler Bulldogs have had a great start to the season. Thad Matta’s team has blown away several weak opponents. They do have solid wins over Penn State and Boise State as well. I’m not in a rush to fade them when they are playing weaker teams coming up on their schedule, but in Big East play I think this team will be a good fade. The Big East is a really tough conference. Butler isn’t likely to be able to keep holding opposing teams to 26.7% from three point range. The Bulldogs are better, but I think the market will get too high on this team. Lamar (4-2 ATS) The Lamar Cardinals have shot 31%, 30%, and 32% from three point range in the last three years. Through six games this year, Lamar is shooting 42.2% from three. It sounds too good to be true doesn’t it? This team won’t be able to keep this up. This is a team that plays at a very fast pace, and they are unlikely to be able to keep scoring at the level they have been at thus far. Lamar has played a very easy schedule season to date, and they have some tougher games coming up soon. They’ll play Sam Houston, Southern Miss, and LSU in the next few weeks. I’ll look for some spots to fade Lamar.

5 Under The Radar College Hoops Teams to Watch

Sunday, Nov 26, 2023

In college basketball, I find it most profitable to bet on under the radar matchups. Of course many people will want to bet on the big games, and I do occasionally place wagers on the big games. Still, I have had the most success when betting on the smallest games in conferences that many bettors will simply overlook. I wanted to take a look at five teams off most people’s radar that I believe bettors should keep a close eye on for betting value throughout the season. These are in no particular order. College of Charleston- It works out perfectly that they have started out the season 0-5 against the spread. Bettors are going to stay away later this season because of what they did in some of these early tournaments. I think that will be a mistake. Pat Kelsey is an excellent coach, and I would expect him to have this young team playing good basketball later in the year. It helps that the Colonial Athletic Association is a much weaker league than it was in the past, and Charleston is playing a tough non-conference schedule. They’ll be battle tested from the start! Towson- The Towson Tigers are 0-6 against the spread so far this year. You might be sensing a theme that I do tend to like betting teams who start poorly on an ATS basis. Bettors tend to throw these teams out to the trash too early. There are some solid betting systems that show in the mid-late season betting on these teams with a poor cover percentage is a very profitable strategy. Towson is an elite offensive rebounding team, and I think they’ll find their footing. Middle Tennessee State- The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders haven’t played very well so far this year. They are 1-5 ATS on the season thus far. MTSU plays in a weak Conference USA. This is a conference that has gotten MUCH weaker in the last couple seasons. The Blue Raiders routinely have a very good defense under Nicholas McDevitt, and I think that defense will help them start covering spreads later in the season once again. This is a very tall team and that can give them matchup advantages too. Morehead State- Morehead State is always a solid team, and I expect them to be good once again this year. They have been playing a brutal non-conference schedule. Morehead State was crushed by both Alabama and Purdue already this year. They also lost at Penn State. The Eagles are still one of the teams to beat in a weak Ohio Valley Conference. Morehead State is good at forcing teams to play their style of basketball. They force slower and very physical games. Furman Furman beat Virginia in the NCAA Tournament last year, but they have started off this season 1-4 ATS. They are 40th according to KenPom in minutes continuity from last season. This is a very similar team to last season. Bob Richey is an excellent coach. Let’s hope the market sours a bit on them and we can make money backing the Paladins, who will once again have a nice season.

College Football ATS Angle To Watch- Good Teams Off Mid-Late Season Loss

Thursday, Oct 19, 2023

The college football regular season is now more than half over. It’s crazy to think that we are this far along, but here we are getting to late October and the weather is changing in a big way. Let’s go ahead and take a look at a late season ATS angle to watch. The Angle Is As Follows:From Game Number 6 or Later in the Regular Season- The team is coming off a loss and has won 75% or more of their games on the season thus far. The team coming off the loss is now the favorite in their next game. Fading this team has been the way to go- what are the results?In this spot, the great team coming off the loss is 156-195 ATS (44.4% ATS). It has been a great fade. When the team is coming off a straight up loss of 17 points or more, that team is 47-67 ATS (41.4% ATS) in that next game.What kind of teams do we usually find in this spot? What teams meet this fade system/angle this week? This is usually a team that has just lost their first game in the mid to late portion of the season. The teams in this fade spot this week are Texas, Oregon, and USC.In my opinion- Texas is in a unique spot here because they had a bye week after their rivalry loss to Oklahoma. The Longhorns absolutely can still reach the four team playoff if they right the ship now.Oregon lost in an epic contest against Washington. They outgained the Huskies by more than 100 yards, but the Ducks went 0/3 on fourth down and lost a heartbreaker. USC was stomped at Notre Dame, and the Trojans are the team I doubt the most as far as their potential to reach their preseason goal of reaching the playoff.Do note that this is simply an angle to watch and not bets that I’m making this week. Also, keep in mind that each situation should be investigated in depth. Has the team had their bubble burst or do they still have everything to play for? It’s just another angle to keep an eye on as you handicap games in the second half of the regular season.

Five College Football Underdog Coaches

Wednesday, Oct 18, 2023

We’re right in the middle of the college football season. It’s crazy how fast the season flies by after we look forward to it through the whole summer. Let’s take a look at five active coaches who have been great in the underdog role (Against the Spread). Some coaches are just great at getting their team to be ready to go when they are being counted out by many. These ATS records go back to 2005. Brian Kelly (40-22-2 ATS) LSU isn’t going to be an underdog very often, but the Tigers are going to be a dog in Tuscaloosa against Alabama on November 4. LSU pulled off the upset at home last year. Can they do it two years in a row? Kelly has been a good ATS moneymaker in general, but he has been excellent in this role. Matt Rhule (35-18 ATS) Rhule did some great work at Baylor. He struggled in the NFL, but I’m convinced Rhule is still a good college football head coach. Nebraska picked up a nice win at Illinois recently, and the Cornhuskers are starting to play a little better in the trenches. It won’t be a quick fix here, but this Nebraska team is definitely in a better spot than they were with Scott Frost as their leader. The Nebraska last three games will be interesting: home vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, and at Iowa. Chris Creighton (45-28-1 ATS) Creighton is an excellent coach who gets the most out of his talent on an annual basis. Eastern Michigan is well known for playing in close games consistently. Creighton’s teams are 27-12 ATS as an underdog on the road. The Eagles will be a road underdog several more times this season. Craig Bohl (42-28 ATS) Here’s another guy who absolutely gets the most out of his team. Craig Bohl’s Wyoming teams make the most of their home field advantage at elevation in Laramie. They are strong in the trenches, and they play some good defense. Wyoming won’t wow you, but they are always a tough team to play. Texas struggled for three quarters against this group. Wyoming pulled off the upsets over Fresno State and Texas Tech at home as well. Billy Napier (19-8 ATS) Florida fans aren’t terribly high on Billy Napier right now, but I think they need to give him some time. Napier has been doing better with recruiting, and he has proven he can get kids up to play in these tough spots. An average or worse coach isn’t able to do this. The Gators play a really tough schedule, and they are going to be underdogs several more times. Don’t be surprised if they pull off a big upset sometime between now and the end of the season.

NCAA FB: 4 Winless ATS Teams Who Might Be Underrated Now

Wednesday, Sep 27, 2023

I always like to look at perception of teams and gauge when might be the time to sell high or buy low. Today, we’ll take a look at four teams who are winless against the spread so far this year. These are teams that I believe could have value moving forward. Georgia Bulldogs (0-3-1 ATS) Who would have expected that the number one team in the country would be winless against the spread at this point in the season? Georgia has played a very weak schedule. UT Martin, Ball State, and UAB are all terrible teams. South Carolina is the only pretty good team they have played so far. Georgia screwed around in that game and they were down 14-3 going into the locker room. They flipped the switch in the second half and won. The Bulldogs are just 51st in yards per carry against this weak schedule. They only have five sacks on the season defensively. The Bulldogs stat profile isn’t great. Having said all of this, Georgia is the most talented team in the country. The Bulldogs are going to turn it on at some point. Michigan Wolverines (0-4 ATS) Here is #2 in the nation! Michigan has typically been a team that crushes weaker opponents. The Wolverines were amazing in the large favorite role in the last six or eight years under Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh missed the first three games due to his suspension. Maybe that bothered the team and threw off the rhythm a bit. Michigan is still a great team, and the Wolverines are now not thought of as highly in the marketplace. The Wolverines are really strong in the trenches, and that should help them win and cover a lot of games in the poor weather games in the Big Ten. I’m not going to adjust Michigan much at all in my power ratings. Harbaugh’s team will get it going against the spread too. UTSA Roadrunners (0-4 ATS) UTSA is a team I expected to be very good this year. So far this season I’ve been wrong on this bunch. They are winless ATS on the season, but they have a bye week this weekend and the hope is Frank Harris will be back soon. Harris is a star, but he has been hobbled this year, and the backups had to play against Tennessee. UTSA’s schedule gets much softer later this year. The Roadrunners still play UAB, E Carolina, Rice, and USF at home. UTSA still has a much higher talent level than many of the teams they will play against in this conference. I think we’ll have a chance to buy low on UTSA soon. Troy Trojans (0-4 ATS) Troy was a covering machine last year. Now, they are 0-4 ATS so far this season. Troy doesn’t have an elite defense like they had last year, but they are still very solid on the defensive end. The Trojans offensive line has been abused by strong defensive lines in the non-conference slate. While it will still be a question mark, there are quite a few weaker defensive lines in the Sun Belt on their schedule the rest of the way.

NCAA FB: 4 Unbeaten ATS Teams Who Might Be Overrated Now

Friday, Sep 22, 2023

I always like to look at perception of teams and gauge when might be the time to sell high or buy low. Today, we’ll take a look at four teams who are unbeaten against the spread so far this year in college football. I think there are signs these teams could be a bit overvalued at this point. Let’s find out who they are and what makes them look overvalued. Indiana Hoosiers (3-0 ATS) Indiana is 3-0 ATS after outperforming expectations against Ohio State, Indiana State, and Louisville. The Hoosiers hasn’t given up big plays, but I’m concerned by their #105 defensive success rate rating out of 133 teams in the country. Indiana also isn’t explosive at all on offense. They are 101st in the nation in explosiveness. The Hoosiers have been big dogs twice, but now they are favored against Akron on Saturday. Indiana then goes into a very rough part of their schedule. They’ll play at Maryland, at Michigan, vs. Rutgers, at Penn State, and vs. Wisconsin. That’s a brutal stretch for any team. Indiana doesn’t have the depth you would want to have heading into that kind of slate. Arizona Wildcats (3-0 ATS) I think Arizona is well coached, but the Wildcats have a few major weaknesses. First, Arizona has a terrible secondary. The Wildcats haven’t played anyone who can take advantage of that weakness. That is about to change! After a game at Stanford- Arizona will go to USC and Washington State. They then play Oregon State, UCLA, and Colorado. The Pac 12 is very tough this year (a shame they are breaking up after this season), and I think Arizona will have a hard time beating those more talented teams. Jayden De Laura is a QB I like, but he has thrown 5 interceptions already this year and he does take too many chances. The defense has allowed only 33% on third down conversions this year. I don’t think that can continue. UNLV (3-0 ATS) UNLV is -1.17 yards per play margin on the season. Michigan hasn’t been running up scores the way some expected (they were without Harbaugh) and Vanderbilt is far worse than people expected. UNLV only has 4 sacks in three games. The Rebels have to be able to generate more of a pass rush to hide their major weakness in the secondary. UNLV is 114th in opposing QBR allowed. Their offensive line ranks 119th in havoc allowed. This isn’t the profile of a team that will just keep covering spreads. Sam Houston State (2-0 ATS) In two games against BYU and Air Force, Sam Houston is averaging just 2.62 yards per play. That is just brutal. BYU and Air Force are decent defenses, but they aren’t that good! The Bearkats of Sam Houston have only been into the red zone one time all season. Though their defense is very solid, it is going to be hard for them to keep covering spreads without any help from the offense. They want to run the ball, but the offensive line just isn’t good enough. They are averaging only 1.37 yards per carry.

College Football: Five New Offensive Coordinators To Watch

Tuesday, Aug 22, 2023

Week zero of the college football season is here! The offseason is long, but we’ll have football on every Saturday from now through the end of the year. I hit 70% in college football last year. I hit 66% in college football two seasons ago. The preparation for this year has been going on a lot for the last couple months. One of the things I think bettors should pay more attention to is new coordinators on both offense and defense. Offensive coordinators can completely change the way a team plays. Knowing these changes ahead of time can keep you one step ahead. Here are five key new offensive coordinators. Alex Golesh (USF Bulls) Alex Golesh is both the new head coach and the new offensive coordinator of the USF Bulls. Golesh has worked with Josh Heupel in recent years at UCF and at Tennessee. USF ranked 98th out of 133 teams in tempo last year, but with Golesh calling the plays and running the offense I have to think they will play faster than that this season. USF is still short on talent compared to many other teams, but their offensive scheme should help them. Scotty O’Hara (UTEP Miners) O’Hara is the new offensive coordinator at UTEP this year. UTEP is in an interesting position this year. Conference USA is clearly watered down compared to what it was previously. Many of the most talented teams are now playing in another league. UTEP has an opportunity to take a clear step up. The thing that will need to improve the most is the passing game. O’Hara aims to improve the efficiency of the passing game this season. Pat Welsh (Miami-Ohio Redhawks) Welsh has been the tight ends coach at Miami and will now take over as the offensive coordinator. Head coach Chuck Martin wanted to shake things up a bit and see if they can give the offense a much needed boost. I would expect some more passing out of the Redhawks this season, especially if star quarterback Brett Gabbert can stay healthy. Miami did lose their star receiver from last year, and I would expect them to throw a lot of quick short passes. This is a team capable of making some noise in the season ahead. Liam Coen (Kentucky Wildcats) Coen is coming back! He served as offensive coordinator at Kentucky in 2021 before moving to the NFL to be with the LA Rams last season. Kentucky tumbled to 101st in yards per play last year, and the Wildcats offense completely lost their explosiveness. With Coen returning I think this is a clear positive for the Kentucky offense in the season ahead. Devin Leary transferred in from NC State at quarterback. It’s likely that Kentucky will get better quarterback play this year than they did from a high draft choice (Will Levis) last season. Kevin Decker (Old Dominion) Decker comes in from Fordham, where he was the offensive coordinator for the last few seasons. Fordham was well known for its extremely fast pace and innovative offensive sets. This is a hire that I want to watch very closely. Old Dominion is badly shorthanded when it comes to offensive talent. Will they look to play as fast as possible even with this talent disadvantage? Can Decker make this work right away? I would guess it will take some time, but keep a close eye on this situation.

College Football: Five New Defensive Coordinators To Watch

Monday, Aug 21, 2023

College football is about to kickoff this coming weekend. Week 0 doesn’t necessarily feature the biggest matchups ever, but for college football to be back is a reason to celebrate! I hit 70% in college football last year. I hit 66% in college football two seasons ago. The preparation for this year has been going on a lot in the last couple months. One of the things I think bettors should pay more attention to is new coordinators on both offense and defense. These guys can completely change the way a team plays. Let’s take a look at five new defensive coordinator hires that I think you should pay close attention to as the new season gets underway. Lance Guidry (Miami Hurricanes) Guidry was at Marshall last year and the Thundering Herd were dominant all season long. Marshall finished top ten in the nation in 12 different defensive categories. Guidry’s defenses are known for their aggressiveness. Miami was continually picked on last year on defense despite having loads of highly talented players at each level. The Hurricanes were 103rd in yards per play allowed. Guidry will help them improve. The question is how much will they improve in year one. Jay Hill (BYU) Jay Hill was the head coach at Weber State the last few years. He now takes the defensive coordinator position at BYU. The BYU Cougars moved to the Big 12 this year, and this is a massive step up in class for both Hill and the entire BYU program. The BYU secondary was particularly bad last year. BYU finished 112th in Total QBR allowed last year. They were 115th in passing play success rate allowed. I’m skeptical that BYU will be able to slow down the Big 12 passing attacks. Charles Kelly (Colorado) Coach Prime is in at Colorado and it will be a lot of fun to see how the season goes in Boulder. He did a great job getting top notch offensive and defensive coordinators. Charles Kelly left Alabama to lead the defense in Colorado. I don’t think it will be easy for this team to just flip the switch immediately, but there should be significant improvements. The secondary has some high end talent in McClain and Hunter. Can Kelly help the run defense? Colorado allowed 6.06 yards per carry last season. Troy Reffett (New Mexico) Why would I put New Mexico on here? There are two major reasons. First, I love under the radar college football, because I believe there is more value there. Second, Reffett has big shoes to fill in this spot. I know the Lobos have been really bad the last couple years, but it wasn’t because of the defense. Rocky Long has been the defensive coordinator here, but he very surprisingly left to become DC at Syracuse. Long is one the best defensive minds in the country. New Mexico’s defense was consistently put in terrible positions by turnovers and poor special teams play. Until I see otherwise, I will assume Reffett is a downgrade. Greg Gasparato (Troy) Troy is coming off a magical season where they went 12-2 and 11-3 ATS. The Trojans lost DC Shiel Wood to Tulane. They hired Greg Gasparato. He was with Louisville and helped the linebackers a year ago. Louisville had a whopping 50 sacks, and the Trojans are hoping Gasparato’s work with the front seven could help them stay ultra aggressive on defense. Troy is talking about playing faster this year, so that could hurt the overall defensive numbers. I would look closely at the efficiency based numbers rather than the raw numbers.

Five Teams Who Could Be Overrated Entering This Season

Sunday, Jul 30, 2023

In less than 30 days, we’ll have college football back on our televisions. The sports betting world is better when college football is an option! There’s nothing like the weeks leading up to college football. College football has been a strength for me (70% on my CFB selections last year and 66% two years ago). A couple of days ago I took a look at five teams who could be underrated heading into this season. Now, let’s take a look at five teams who could be overrated going into this season based on their ATS success from a year ago. Tulane Green Wave (12-2 ATS) I love Coach Fritz and that will definitely make me hesitate to fade this Tulane team. Three things about this team make me think they will be overvalued. First, there are very few teams who are able to go 12-2 ATS in a season. That kind of success gets noticed by bettors all over the world. Second, they are coming off a last second upset of USC in their last game. That is the last thing bettors will think of coming into this season. Finally, Tulane really lost a lot of key production. The linebacker spot takes a big hit without Anderson and Williams. Tyjae Spears won’t be easy to replace at RB either. Troy Trojans (11-3 ATS) Troy was able to go 11-3 ATS last year despite having a very poor offense. They couldn’t run the football, and they lost their starting quarterback from a year ago. Troy will still be a good Sun Belt team, but I think it will be hard for them to keep covering spreads. Carlton Martial finished his Troy career as the FBS leader in career tackles. He’s obviously a massive loss at linebacker. The Trojans still have weaknesses on offense, and now the defense lost its best player too. Tennessee Volunteers (10-3 ATS) Josh Heupel has done a really good job with this Tennessee program. They outperformed all expectations for them a year ago up until the point that Hendon Hooker was injured. Joe Milton steps in as the starting quarterback. Milton claims he can throw the ball 90 yards. I want to see it to believe it. Also, Milton isn’t nearly as accurate of a passer as Hooker. There were a lot of key losses at the wide receiver position as well. A good team, but there isn’t likely to be a lot of value here on an ATS basis. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-5 ATS) Mitch Griffis might do alright as the quarterback at Wake Forest, but it is a big downgrade from Sam Hartman to the guys who Wake Forest will try under center this year. Dave Clawson is a good coach, so it won’t surprise me if Wake Forest improves a lot by the end of the season. Early on though this team might be overvalued. The offensive line is a big weakness. They averaged only 3.4 ypc last year, and now they are without Hartman and star WR A.T. Perry. Five of their top six defensive linemen from last year are gone as well. It will take some time. Illinois Fighting Illini (8-5 ATS) Chase Brown was the star running back for Illinois, and the Fighting Illini are going to miss him a lot. They’ll probably miss defensive coordinator Ryan Walters even more. It’s my opinion that Walters really led the Illinois turnaround the last couple years. The job he did with the Illinois defense was nothing short of fantastic. Illinois lost three key players from the secondary, and they’ll have to try to put it back together without their star coordinator now.

Five Teams Who Could Be Underrated ATS This Season

Saturday, Jul 29, 2023

The college football season is just a month away! College football has been a strength for me (70% CFB last year and 66% two years ago), and it is one of my two favorite sports (college hoops the other). There’s nothing like the weeks leading up to college football. Handicappers put in a ton of time preparing for the season. Today, I want to look at five teams I believe could be underrated against the spread this season because of their poor results against the spread from a year ago. NC State (4-9 ATS last year) NC State was overhyped coming into last season. Everyone thought NC State had their window of opportunity to win the ACC. The team did have a lot of injuries. Devin Leary was knocked out and they had backup QB’s for much of the season. The defense also suffered a bunch of key losses. NC State had a disappointing season compared to expectations and finished 4-9 ATS.Brennan Armstrong transferred in from Virginia, and he is expected to be the new starting quarterback. The Wolfpack did lose a lot of key guys on defense, but star linebacker Payton Wilson is back to lead the stop unit.There is no hype this year, but the Wolfpack have winnable road games and a quality team. Ole MIss (4-8-1 ATS last year) Quinshon Judkins might be the best running back in the country. Lane Kiffin is a brilliant offensive mastermind. Jaxson Dart is back and Spencer Sanders (previously the starting QB at Oklahoma State) transferred in to Ole Miss as well. Zakhari Franklin, who was a star WR at UTSA is now in the fold at Ole Miss too. There is an abundance of wealth on the offensive side for the Rebels. They are coming off a 4-8-1 ATS season. Ole Miss had a bad showing in their bowl game and people will remember that. I think the Rebels are at least somewhat underrated coming into this season. Northern Illinois (4-8 ATS last year) Let’s go a bit under the radar in the MAC for our next team. Northern Illinois was just 4-8 ATS last year, but they played much of the season without star quarterback Rocky Lombardi. Lombardi has put up video game type numbers in this offense when healthy the last couple seasons. Northern Illinois has arguably the best offensive line in the MAC too. The Huskies will test themselves in the non-conference with games at Nebraska and Boston College. I think they’ll be a good team ATS especially in MAC play. Iowa State (4-7-1 ATS last year) Matt Campbell is still a good coach, and Iowa State isn’t likely to be -7 in turnover margin again this season. They went just 4-8 straight up and 4-7-1 ATS last year. The Cyclones have an above average defense and a veteran signal caller in Hunter Dekkers. They play a really tough schedule, so they might not win a ton of games, but I think they’ll be some good spots to back them as underdogs this season. Oklahoma (5-8 ATS last year) Oklahoma has too much talent to not bounce back some in the year ahead. Dillon Gabriel is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He was hurt late last year. Many bettors will remember Oklahoma being blasted by Texas a year ago. I also trust Brent Venables and Ted Roof to help this defense improve in the second year of this system. The Sooners have a lot of upside potential this year.

6 Starting Pitchers to Expect Negative Regression From

Wednesday, Jun 28, 2023

There is a big enough sample size now to see which starting pitchers are overachieving and should see some negative regression coming from in the weeks and months ahead. Let’s take a look at six guys who might begin to tail off a bit. Jon Gray 2.89 ERA (4.31 FIP) (4.18 xERA) Both the FIP and expected ERA are much higher than his current 2.89 ERA on the season. Gray actually ranks in the bottom half of all pitchers in expected batting average allowed. His xERA is actually higher this year than it was last year or the year before. Gray is having a nice season, but he isn’t as good as he looks right now. Yusei Kikuchi 3.75 ERA (5.26 FIP) (4.60 xERA) Kikuchi is a unique pitcher in that he strikes out a bunch of guys, but allows very hard contact and puts a lot of guys on base. His left on base rate (Stranded runners rate) was 72% and 74% the last two years. So far this year, Kikuchi’s left on base rate is all the way up at 89.5%. It won’t stay there for much longer. Kikuchi is actually striking out fewer batters this year as well. A possible fade candidate. Marcus Stroman 2.47 ERA (3.34 FIP) (3.79 xERA) Stroman is a good pitcher, but he isn’t this good. Opponents have a batting average on balls in play of just .250 against Stroman this season. He does do a good job of limiting hard contact, so I think Stroman can still be a solid pitcher, but the 2.47 ERA will go up. Let’s see how the oddsmakers price him moving forward. Michael Wacha 2.90 ERA (3.76 FIP) (4.06 xERA) Wacha has been in the big leagues since 2013. He is about to turn 32 years old, and he is currently on the injury list due to shoulder fatigue. The advanced metrics all say Wacha will experience regression soon. Opponents BABIP is just .245. Wacha doesn’t have overpowering stuff at this point in his career either. Clayton Kershaw 2.55 ERA (3.51 FIP) (3.51 xERA) Clayton Kershaw is still a very good pitcher. I certainly don’t want to make it sound like this is a guy I’m excited to bet against. The numbers do show that he has had some good fortune this year though. Because Kershaw has actually pitched very well in the second half of the season in his career, this is one where I’ll be cautious about fading him unless the price is very enticing. Josiah Gray 3.43 ERA (4.77 FIP) (4.33 xERA) A second Gray has made the list. Josiah Gray has seen his strikeouts per nine innings drop from 9.32 last year to 7.86 this year. Gray is stranding 83.4% of runners on base and that isn’t going to stay that high. In his young career, Gray has been far worse in the second half of the season. In his career, Gray has a 3.92 ERA in the first half compared to a 5.73 ERA in the second half of the season. He should see his stats regress quite a bit.

8 Starting Pitchers To Expect Positive Regression From

Tuesday, Jun 13, 2023

8 Starting Pitchers To Expect Positive Regression From There is a big enough sample size now to see what starting pitchers should have some positive regression coming. They have likely been unlucky in some way. These are guys to keep an eye on going forward. These pitchers are in no particular order. Hunter Greene (4.01 ERA- 3.51 xERA and 3.31 FIP) Greene’s expected ERA and FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) suggests he should have even better numbers on the year. The Reds flame thrower has been improving in recent games. He has the stuff to dominate, and it might not be that far away. Jesus Luzardo (4.17 ERA- 3.56 xERA and 3.58 FIP) Luzardo is striking out 10.31 batters per nine innings. His walk rate is way down this year as well. His batting average on balls in play allowed is a very high .335. This is a young left hander that has a bright future ahead of him. Zack Wheeler (3.91 ERA- 3.26 xERA and 2.74 FIP) Wheeler may be 33 years old now, but he is still pitching extremely well. He’s stranding only 64.8% of baserunners on the season thus far. Wheeler is very likely to improve that number since it is far lower than the overall league average. Pablo Lopez (4.25 ERA- 3.36 xERA and 3.78 FIP) Lopez is a bit of a tough pitcher to get a read on to be honest. He is more than capable of shutting down the opposition, but he is also capable of getting absolutely crushed. Lopez has drastic home/road splits in his career, and I will definitely continue to prefer to expect him to pitch better at home. Lance Lynn (6.72 ERA- 5.43 xERA and 5.30 FIP) I’m not here to tell you that Lance Lynn is going to turn things around to the point of being one of the best pitchers in baseball again. I do think the metrics are very clear though that Lynn has been very unlucky so far this year. There might be some chances to buy low on him. Sandy Alcantara (4.75 ERA- 4.13 xERA and 3.77 FIP) Alcantara was amazing last year, but he has been a big disappointment this year. Alcantara doesn’t have many pitches so he might not be quite as good as he appeared last year, but I also think he is better than his numbers look so far this season. I would expect improvement here. His left on base rate of 60.7% is extremely low. Chris Sale (4.56 ERA- 3.56 xERA and 3.69 FIP) Sale is one of the names that I didn’t really expect to see in the due for positive regression territory, but here he is. He started the season very poorly, but has been trending in the right direction. Nestor Cortes (5.16 ERA- 3.74 xERA and 4.58 FIP) Cortes is one I fully expected to show up on this list. He has pitched far worse than a year ago, but has had bad batted ball luck. This is a guy that I’d keep an eye on for buy low spots as we go through the latter parts of the season.

MLB Season Money Leaders & Money Burners- Where From Here?

Thursday, May 25, 2023

The MLB season is a couple months old now. I wanted to take a look at a couple teams who have been great to bettors so far this season and a couple teams who have been burning up bettors money thus far. Are they sell high or buy low candidates? Why or why not?Season to Date Through May 24th Money Leaders ($100 per game bettor figures) Moneymakers Baltimore Orioles (+$1,197) The Baltimore Orioles top the charts having helped bettors make a mint so far this year. They are second in the highly competitive American League East. Baltimore sits only three games behind Tampa Bay even with the Rays amazing start to the season. Yennier Cano has been the best reliever in baseball so far this year. The Orioles are second in baseball in bullpen ERA at 2.98. They do also have the second best FIP. The bullpen looks legitimately very good. Baltimore is just 17th in the majors in batting average on balls in play offensively. I think this is a good team. They won’t be as easy to make money from as early this year, but I wouldn’t straight fade them either. Texas Rangers (+$801) Texas has made bettors a lot of money as well. Can they keep it up? There are some concerning signs in my opinion. Texas has the highest batting average on balls in play in the majors at .324. The offense isn’t as good as they have looked so far this year. Opponents also have the seventh lowest batting average on balls in play against Texas pitching. The Rangers have won a lot of close games so far this year. The schedule gets tougher for them in the coming weeks too. This is a team I’ll look to fade in some spots. Money Burners Oakland Athletics (-$2,393) I don’t have anything good to say about the Athletics. They are moving to a new city. Oakland has a negative home field advantage if anything at this point. There just isn’t any passion. Oakland also happens to have the least talented roster in the majors. They at least have a pulse against left handed pitching, but against righties this lineup is brutal. The Oakland bullpen is worst in the majors by nearly a full run in FIP. Yikes. I’m not backing this team. St. Louis Cardinals (-$912) A very different case than the Oakland A’s. The Cardinals were the favorites in the NL Central. St. Louis started the season terribly, but they have been playing much better of late. The good news for them is no one is running away with the NL Central by any means. Can bettors make money from them going forward? Cardinals pitching has allowed a batting average on balls in play of .325 which is second highest in the majors. That’s a sign of bad luck. The Cardinals are one of the most power filled lineups in the majors, and hitting dingers is always a good thing. I think this team is too talented to not at least make a run here. I’ll look for spots to back them and betting on them to win the NL Central at a nice plus money price isn’t a bad idea either.

NBA Conference Finals & NBA Title Futures Prices/Analysis

Monday, May 15, 2023

We are all set with the Conference Finals matchups in the NBA. It is the Los Angeles Lakers against the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference. The Miami Heat will take on the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference. Current Prices (Market Average)Denver Nuggets to win Western Conference (-150)LA Lakers to win Western Conference (+130)Boston Celtics to win Eastern Conference (-550)Miami Heat to win Eastern Conference (+400)To Win The NBA Title PricesBoston Celtics (+110) Denver Nuggets (+240)LA Lakers (+325)Miami Heat (+1,500)Western Conference AnalysisThe Lakers barely made it into the playoffs. They then needed a big comeback and overtime win over the Minnesota Timberwolves in their play-in game to earn the 7th spot in the playoffs. Los Angeles is absolutely peaking at the right time. The trade deadline deals made by the front office were spectacular. De’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Jarrod Vanderbilt, and company have really helped with team depth and the defense has gotten even better than it was in the middle of the season. I’m of the opinion that the Lakers regular season record means absolutely nothing right now. The key to the series in my opinion is Anthony Davis. Can he be consistently great? He is a matchup nightmare for everyone, and his length on the defensive end completely changes games. Davis isn’t as consistent as some other stars, and he is vulnerable to injuries. The Lakers need him to be at his best consistently. The Nuggets have a chip on their shoulder believing that people don’t respect them despite them being the #1 seed for almost the entire season in the Western Conference. Nikola Jokic makes this offense hum on all cylinders with his tremendous play making and passing ability. Can the Nuggets do what the Warriors couldn’t and figure out this Lakers defense? The key for Denver is Jamal Murray being elite in this series.Eastern Conference Analysis The Boston Celtics got all they wanted and more from the Philadelphia 76ers. The Miami Heat frankly weren’t very good in the regular season, but they have a couple key things working in their advantage in this series. First, Erik Spoelstra gives them a clear coaching advantage in this matchup. Second, Jimmy Butler has consistently been on a completely different level in the playoffs compared to the regular season. On the other side, Boston is a much deeper team with far more scoring options than the Heat. Boston should win this series, but I do think the price is a little too steep at -550. Boston isn’t playing as well as they were last season, but I think they are still being priced the same way.My ThoughtsI bet the Lakers at +1,000 to win the NBA Title a few weeks ago. I think the Nuggets/Lakers series is a total coin flip. The Nuggets have a great home court advantage, but LeBron and company have a big postseason experience advantage. I think Denver -150 is too high of a price. On the surface, Miami +1,500 seems like a good price given that they are just two rounds away from winning the whole thing. Still, it is hard to imagine a team with as many glaring weaknesses as the Heat winning the title. Their lack of depth and consistent scoring threats are likely to make them fall short. Boston is even money or so many places to win the title. I can’t bet them at such a high price. The Celtics have the most talented roster left in the playoffs, but that alone isn’t always enough.

MLB Totals Trends So Far: What Do They Mean?

Friday, Apr 28, 2023

There are a lot of new rules in Major League Baseball this year. There were a lot of unknowns about how those would change betting on baseball this year. The biggest unknown was about what totals would look like due to the rule changes.Let’s take a look at some numbers for the season so far- Season To Date Totals Numbers: 186 Overs 181 Unders (50.7% Overs) Last 7 Days Totals: 40 Overs 52 Unders (56.5% Unders)For several weeks the over was on fire, and many were saying the over was “free money” with the new rules. In fact, about three weeks into the season the over was hitting at about 56%. Now, we have seen things flip around to where the under has been cashing in very nicely for about the last ten days. I’ll be the first to admit that I was hesitant to bet many totals early on this season. I wanted to sit back and see how the rule changes would alter scoring in baseball. After the rash of overs in the first few weeks, the betting marketplace started betting up nearly every total on the board on a daily basis. Between that and the oddsmakers adjusting the numbers higher, under bettors have had more success recently.On the whole, scoring is a up a bit from a year ago. However, it is my opinion that the biggest lesson to be learned here is that the betting market is efficient and oddsmakers are always going to make adjustments. Blindly betting games to go over the total because recent games have been going over isn’t a good strategy. What should you be doing instead of just trying to follow a league wide trend? I recommend looking at umpire statistics, pitcher vs. batter stats, and pitcher splits based on home/road and early season or late season. We will have to keep an eye on totals again when the weather heats up in the summer, but for now the oddsmakers have caught up with the new rules.

Four NBA Playoff Systems/Angles

Friday, Apr 14, 2023

The NBA playoffs are here! Now that March Madness is in the rear view mirror, the NBA will be get a lot of the attention in the next couple months. The play in tournament has brought some solid games already, and the full playoffs tip off on Saturday April 15. I wanted to take a look at four different NBA playoff angles that have made money in the past. These angles/systems aren’t the be-all and end-all, but they are good pieces of information to know as part of your handicaps throughout the playoffs. Four NBA Playoff Systems/Angles Home favorites with 4 or more days of rest since their last game are an impressive 112-69 (61.9% ATS) in the NBA playoffs dating back to the 2006 season. When does this system usually pop up? This is most commonly in game one of a series when the higher seeded team has had a good break between their contests. Even larger favorites have done very well inside this system. Favorites of 5 points or larger are 85-52 ATS, which has yielded an ROI of 20.5%. Keep an eye on those rested home favorites through the playoffs. A favorite receiving 40% or less of the spread bets is 110-75-5 ATS (60.8%). Public bettors haven’t been good at picking underdogs in the NCAA Tournament, and they aren’t good at betting underdogs in the NBA playoffs. This is a system that is just a straight fade of the trendy underdog. First round NBA playoff games that start before 6 pm eastern are 124-88 to the under. That is good for 58.5% wins and an ROI of an impressive 13.7%. Overall, early start times have leaned toward the under in the NBA in both the regular season and the playoffs. It isn’t something I would blindly bet, but it is definitely something to consider before placing your wagers. Road underdogs where the line has moved at least 1 point in the direction of the other team and the spread bets are less than 45% on the road underdog- Those road underdogs are 75-54-2 ATS (58.1% ATS). The thought here is the public has moved the line toward the favorite a bit too much and has inflated the line. Remember NBA playoff betting is far different than regular season betting. It is now less about motivation and more about matchups. Good luck during the playoffs!

Sweet 16 & Elite 8 Angles/Systems

Wednesday, Mar 22, 2023

We’re into the weekend of the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 in the NCAA Tournament. The venues have changed, and if you are looking for numbers regarding the venues and totals I recently wrote an article here at the Big Al site which gives detailed information about that. I know many people like to consider systems/angles that have worked in the past for specific rounds of the NCAA Tournament. Let’s take a look at a few that have worked well in the past. Keep in mind that these shouldn’t be just blindly bet across the board as much as it should be one factor in your overall handicap of the game.Sweet 16 Angles*Games With a Spread of 7.5 or larger in the Round of the Sweet 16 have gone under the total to the tune of 23-8-2 in the last 33 contests. If they had a closing total of 135 or higher, under is 18-4 in these contests. *Sweet 16: Teams with an ATS win percentage on the year of 50% or lower against a team with an ATS win percentage of 51% or higher are 41-25 ATS in the last 66 contests. If you are fading teams with a cover rate of higher than 60% this angle jumps to 17-4 ATS.Elite 8 Angles*Underdogs receiving 50% of the spread bets in the game or lower have gone 27-13-2 ATS in the Elite 8 round dating back to 2011. The public favorites have done poorly, and the underdogs who are unloved have been covering the number in a big way.*Totals of less than 145 points on the closing number have gone over the total at a clip of 31-18 in the Elite 8 dating back to 2006. Totals of 137.5 or lower have gone 20-11 to the over in the Elite 8.Before you bet on these big games Thursday-Sunday consider these angles as part of your handicap and see if it can help get you an edge. Every little edge you can find is helpful especially when the lines are as sharp as they this time of the season. Best of luck in the weekend ahead!

Sweet 16 Venue Numbers Examined

Monday, Mar 20, 2023

As always, the NCAA Tournament delivered with great drama through the first weekend. We have a #15 seed in Princeton in the Sweet 16. We also have a team from Conference USA (Florida Atlantic) that is about to head to Madison Square Garden for their next game. The Sweet 16 tips off on Thursday evening. The Thursday matchups are fantastic, and the Friday games are solid as well. I wanted to take a look at the venues for the Sweet 16 matchups. Are there any numbers from previous games played here that might help us as we handicap these games?ThursdayT Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, Nevada) Postseason games played at T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas have gone 23-12-1 to the over in the last 36 games. The average postseason game played here has gone over the total by an average of 5.26 points. That’s a solid margin for a 36 game sample. There has been some talk in the past about the rims at T Mobile being soft. Arkansas/UConn and Gonzaga/UCLA will square off here. These are two must see games. I would argue that this location has the single best games of the week. Madison Square Garden (New York City, New York)Madison Square Garden has been one of the best under venues in the country. The under is 162-123 in the last 285 college basketball games played here. Postseason games at Madison Square Garden with a total of 127.5 or higher are 44-28 to the under. Those games have stayed under the total by an average of 3.55 points per game. In the last 310 college basketball games played at MSG, the 1st half under is a whopping 185-125 (59.7% unders). Florida Atlantic takes on Tennessee in an unexpected matchup at MSG, and the other game pits Michigan State against Kansas State.FridayYum Center (Louisville, Kentucky)The numbers for the Yum Center are a little more tricky to decipher. The under is 171-131 in games played here since 2006, but most of these have been home games for Louisville. That means the data could be more about the Louisville team than the facility itself. In neutral court games played at Yum Center the under is 12-16. That’s a small sample size, and most of those games have finished close to the total. The two matchups here are San Diego State/Alabama and Princeton/Creighton. T Mobile Center (Kansas City, Missouri)Not to be confused with the T Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, these are the games at T Mobile Center in Kansas City. The under is 29-18 (61.7% unders) in games played at this venue. All the games played here have been neutral site games. For a good while this looked like a wash for over/unders, but the under has hit in 12 of their last 14 games played here. Is it statistical noise or is this an under venue? It’s a bit early to judge this one too much with a fairly small sample. Still, the under has cashed by an average of 2.94 points in this 47 game sample size. It will be Miami/Houston and Xavier/Texas in the two games played here on Friday evening.

College Basketball Totals Overall Season Numbers Examined

Tuesday, Feb 21, 2023

We are just over a week away from the calendar flipping over to March. The smaller conferences begin their conference tournaments next week. The larger conferences have a couple weeks until their conference tournaments get underway. Being a guy who focuses a lot on college basketball totals, I wanted to take a look at the overall season numbers on totals. I’ll also break down the recent totals trends. Season to Date: 2,440 Overs (51.9%) 2,263 Unders (48.1%)Last 30 Days: 759 Overs (55.4%) 611 Unders (44.6%)Last 7 Days: 189 Overs (55.9%) 149 Unders (44.1%) In an average season there have usually been more unders than overs. That hasn’t been the case this season. It was running fairly even until a little over a month ago, when the trend started pushing heavily toward the over cashing. In the last month, there have been 94 games go into overtime, and 89 of those 94 games went over the total. It isn’t surprising that the vast majority of overtime games get over the posted total. The fact that there were 94 games that went into overtime is a little higher than expected.Favorites have covered at a 51.5% clip in the last month. It’s no surprise to see favorites doing well at the same time overs are cashing. Those two bets are more often than not at least somewhat correlated. What should we make of the fact that overs have been cashing at such a high clip recently? There has been a bit of a tempo boost in the country overall. On this same date last year the national average for possessions in a game was 67.3 possessions. Today, it sits at 68.0 possessions. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but it does lead to a bit of a bump in scoring. The bigger reason for totals going over has been an increase in offensive efficiency. Last year, the league average on this date was 1.030 points per possession on offense. What about this year? That number sits at 1.050 points per possession. Offensive rebound percentages have gone from 28.0% on average last year to 29.1% so far this season. Second chance points are crucial and they are too often overlooked by many bettors. Should you just blindly be betting overs from now through the end of the season? I wouldn’t recommend it. The oddsmakers know this information very well, and they know many bettors want to bet on overs instead of unders. There are adjustments going on in the marketplace. I’ve been around long enough to see these types of things swing back and forth. The under will likely show value at some point between now and the end of the season on the whole.

College Basketball Futures- Three Valuable Futures Buys

Monday, Feb 13, 2023

The football season is over, and it is time to focus all of our attention on the hardcourt. March Madness is only a month away. I wanted to take a look at three teams I see some value on as futures wagers right now. Building a futures portfolio in mid-late February can be a good move. In general I like to buy low on teams after a bad loss. Everyone has a bad loss at some point in the season. 1. Baylor Bears (+2,200 to win the NCAA Tournament and +500 to Reach the Final 4) I like the Baylor Bears backcourt a lot. A team with veteran guards who take care of the basketball and pass it well is a tough out in March. Cryer and Flagler both shoot better than 40% from three and are veteran leaders for this team. Baylor is first in the nation in offensive efficiency. I really like the +500 price to reach the Final Four. The Big 12 is absolutely loaded, and to say this Baylor team will be battle tested going into the NCAA Tournament is an understatement. 2. Miami Hurricanes (+8,000 to win the NCAA Tournament) I don’t think the Miami Hurricanes will win the NCAA Tournament, but this is a good price. Miami ranks in the top 20 teams in the country in away from home performance. That is something really important to look for when handicapping teams who have a chance. You don’t want to be backing a team that only plays well at home. Wong is a great leader for this Miami team. We also know Jim Larranaga has a history of making runs in the tournament. That’s a good thing to have on your side as well. If they win a couple games in the tournament at this price you can start hedging and make a good profit even if they don’t win it all. 3. Creighton Blue Jays (+750 to Reach the Final 4) The Creighton Blue Jays were hyped very heavily in the preseason. There wasn’t really value on them for a good while. Then Ryan Kalkbrenner their star big man was out for an extended period. Creighton played poorly without their star, and that made people overlook them. He’s back in the fold and the Blue Jays are playing well now. Creighton’s defense is impressing me this season. The Blue Jays are second best in the nation at defending without fouling. They are 17th best in defensive rebounding percentage. Those are the types of things that can win you close games. The Big East is underrated in general in my opinion, and I think Creighton can make a run in March.

3 NFL Playoff Betting Angles

Thursday, Jan 19, 2023

The NFL playoffs are getting intense now as we try to figure out who will fight for the AFC and NFC Championships next weekend. I wanted to take a look at 3 different angles that I think could be helpful to bettors the rest of the way in the NFL playoffs. Underdogs in the NFL Playoffs- Since 2004 underdogs are hitting at a 55.1% rate in the NFL playoffs. If you narrow it down to underdogs of fewer than ten points the rate becomes 56.8%. That’s a fantastic win rate over a large sample size. These games are often hard fought and tight. The public likes to lay points with the favorites. Frankly, the public hasn’t been very good at betting the NFL playoffs. Be careful with those “easy covers” with the favorites. More often than not the line will move to the favorite this time of the year, so if you are betting the underdog usually waiting until later in the week is a good strategy. Unders Outside the Dome- The under is 80-54 with a total of 41 in an NFL playoff game that is not being played in a dome. This one also dates back to 2004. There can be many reasons for why games outdoors this time of the year are better for under bettors. Last week’s contests were great for over bettors in general, but this under angle has worked well in the long run. You’ll want to check the weather before you place your bets this weekend. Look for wind first since it clearly matters the most when betting a total in football. NFL Dome Overs- The over is 30-17 since 2004 in games played in a dome. This isn’t as big of a sample size since most games are played outdoors, but a lot of these games have easily gone over the total. There aren’t any games played in domes this coming weekend, but in the weeks ahead there will be games played inside. Remember this angle! No one angle should be the sole reason you bet a certain side or total, but these are great to have as part of your handicapping toolbox.

Worst CBB Teams ATS- Any Value Coming?

Thursday, Jan 12, 2023

We’ve reached the middle of January. The college football season is over and college basketball is now center stage for college fans. Of course the NFL playoffs are going to get a lot of attention as well, but through the week a lot of focus will be on college basketball. March Madness is only two months away.Let’s take a look at 5 of the worst teams ATS so far this year. Is there value here? Keep in mind that betting on these worst teams ATS in the middle and late portion of the season has usually been profitable. About the time most bettors give up on a team there can be value. Do any of these teams stand out? Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-14 ATS) Tulsa has a new coach in Eric Konkol. Konkol was previously at Louisiana Tech, and he did a good job there. I’m not ready to call his term a failure this quick. He was put in a tough spot here. Frank Haith did quite a bit of damage to the program in recent years, and this roster isn’t very talented now. They are one of the shortest teams in the country. I don’t want to back them consistently across the board, but I do think there will be some spots especially as home underdogs where backing them could be valuable. Loyola Chicago Ramblers (3-13 ATS) The first year in the Atlantic 10 isn’t going well at all for the Ramblers. This is clearly a step up in competition, and Loyola has the least experience they have had in several years. A 24.6% turnover rate on offense is crushing them on a game to game basis. The point guard play just hasn’t been good enough. Their defense which has usually been very strong is giving up 1.22 points per possession in league play. Kentucky Wildcats (4-11-1 ATS) Kentucky is the first of some big names on this list. I truthfully can’t believe the Wildcats have been this bad. Their last game was a home loss to a weak South Carolina team. John Calipari has a lot of heat on him right now to get this turned around. Jacob Toppin missed that game, and his status should be monitored closely. This team is too talented to be terrible consistently. I will look for spots to back them in the near future. Gonzaga Wildcats (4-11-1 ATS) Yet another basketball power who has been burning money this year. Gonzaga is 14-3 and they are still a good team, but they are clearly down a couple notches. Their offense which has been best in the land in three of the last five years is now 7th in effective field goal percentage offense. The defense is 207th! I still don’t want to lay the big numbers with the current Zags squad. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-14 ATS) Notre Dame makes very little sense. The Fighting Irish beat Michigan State by 18 earlier this year. They have lost to St. Bonaventure, Florida State, and Boston College. Last year the Fighting Irish surprised many people, but they were all the way up at 69th in defensive efficiency. They have slid down to 221st this season. A very tough team to get a read on. I’ll pass here because of the inconsistency issues.

College Basketball Season To Date Overall Trends: An Analysis

Monday, Dec 26, 2022

It’s the day after Christmas. There are no games on the schedule for today, but some college basketball action returns in the next couple days. It’s a good time to take a look back at the first month and a half of the season and see how things have broken. Overall Totals: 1,012 Unders (50.2%) 1,004 Overs (49.8%) The under has edged out the over thus far, but it has been extremely close. There have been quite a few overtime games, and the overtime games have gone 87-19 toward the over (not surprisingly). Home Teams ATS Covers 1,020 (50.8%) Road Teams 987 Covers (49.2%) In recent years the road team has actually done better, but that has flipped so far this season. Things are still even enough here that I wouldn’t want to read a lot into it.Underdogs ATS 1,039 (51.8%) Favorites ATS 968 (48.2%) Underdogs have been the better side to be on so far this season. There have been a lot of big spreads, and the favorites have had trouble covering those big numbers. Let’s take the numbers one step further: Home Underdogs are 275-223 ATS (55.2%) so far this season. The biggest winning strategy so far this season has been backing those home underdogs. I don’t know that it is predictive of what will come the rest of the season.Where From Here? Some Tips On Betting In the Coming WeeksKeep in mind that many leagues will start playing conference games in the next week. There won’t be nearly as many big spreads. The teams will be more familiar with each other. Keep an eye on games with bigger point spreads as possible under plays. Why? There is a far smaller chance of overtime. There is also a smaller chance of a late foul fest. I would also encourage bettors to consider trying to find reasons to back teams who have done poorly against the spread on the season thus far, and fade teams who have done very well against the spread thus far. This is the time of the year where the marketplace can go too far in each direction on many teams.

Bowl Season Handicapping: Three Factors to Consider

Thursday, Dec 08, 2022

College football bowl season lines are already up. If you are a fan of college football, this is a really fun time of the year. How many bowl games are there in all? There are a whopping 43 games. Because this year January 1st is a Sunday, there are no bowl games set on Sunday since that is an NFL day. There will be plenty of games around the holidays though. If you are betting on bowl games, here are three factors to consider when placing your bet. #1- Motivation- In past years motivation was about the only thing you need to know in order to pick winners in bowl games. Things are far more complex in college football now than they were then. Still, motivation is crucial when handicapping bowl contests. Which teams want to be there the most? I’m not going to pretend deciding which team is the most motivated is always an easy thing to do, but it better be something you consider. I like to fade teams who had far higher aspirations and landed in a smaller game. Also, if a team hasn’t been to a bowl game in a long time, they are highly likely to be excited for this opportunity.#2. Opt Outs/Transfers- Here is the part that wasn’t even part of the equation looking back ten years or so. It gradually started happening more, and now it is a massive part of handicapping the game. Why would Tulane be getting hammered against USC? Why would Kansas State be getting hammered by bettors against Alabama? Obviously those bettors are assuming a lot of key players from both USC and Alabama will sit out. This is another reason why I in general am more cautious about releasing plays very early in bowl season. A lot of things can happen between the final game of the regular season and the bowl contest.#3. Location- The location of the bowl game matters for a couple key reasons. First, how far is the team having to travel and will their fans be able to get to the location easily? Second, are they traveling to a location where college players will be excited to go play? This ties back to the first point on motivation. If the game is being played in Hawaii, it is pretty easy to see why anyone would be excited to go there. What if the game is played in the middle of nowhere on the day after Christmas? Then you have to question who actually wants to be there.Good luck on all your plays in bowl season. Keep these three factors in mind!

College Hoops Early Season Surprise Teams & Their Outlooks

Tuesday, Nov 29, 2022

UConn Huskies (7-0-1 ATS So Far) No one has been more impressive to me early in the season than the UConn Huskies. They have blowout wins over Alabama, Oregon, and Iowa State already. Adama Sonogo is one of the best players in the country. Freshman Alex Caraban is a key for this team too. It is going to be a lot of fun when we see this team battle against Creighton in the Big East. I still don’t think the books have caught up on UConn. St. Bonaventure Bonnies (5-1 ATS) How has this team been so good against the spread? They lost nearly everyone. Mark Schmidt is showing what a tremendous coach he is with this really inexperienced bunch. I wouldn’t have expected this team to be so competitive early on. They are coming off a huge win over Notre Dame on a neutral court. Their contest against Iona on a neutral will tell us a lot. Kent State Golden Flashes (6-0 ATS) I’m going under the radar here. Kent State nearly knocked off Houston on the road in their last game. The Golden Flashes defense looks very tough this season. They are testing themselves in a big way in the non-conference. They take on Gonzaga in Spokane on December 5th. I don’t think this team is quite as good as they look at this point. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (4-0 ATS) Jay Ladner’s crew is playing much better so far this year. Southern Miss is still a team I want to wait and see on though. They haven’t played that tough of a schedule and I want to see how they look with a bigger sample size on the road. West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2 ATS) Bob Huggins’ team was about as bad as anyone could have expected last year. Huggins said his team didn’t really buy in last year, and he was very confident they would be better this year. It looks like he was right! I do think last year was the floor for this Mountaineers team, and I would tend to think they’ll continue to have value going forward for a while this year. South Alabama Jaguars (6-0 ATS) Another team that is flying under the radar this year. In the Sun Belt, it is much easier for a team to fly under the radar. South Alabama has been money as an underdog here early in the season against quality teams. They will be in that role their next couple games. After that they will start laying points again. I’m not confident this team will be great when laying a lot of points.

College Football Championship Week: The Games That Matter Most

Monday, Nov 28, 2022

Here we are at Conference Championship Week in college football. The season flew by as it always seems to. Many teams are done for the season, while quite a few others are just waiting to see where they will play in a bowl game.Michigan and Georgia are clearly going to be in the College Football Playoff even if they lose this weekend. That’s not to say they won’t try, but it isn’t a must win spot for them. Many believe TCU would be in even if they lose, but they need to at least be competitive. USC is in a must win spot. Let’s take a brief look at a few of the contests this weekend. Pac 12 Title Game Friday at 8 pm Eastern- Utah vs. USC (USC -3, 67) It isn’t even on Saturday, but this is really the biggest game of the weekend for several teams. USC needs a win here. Some think Ohio State would be in the CFP if USC loses and others think Alabama could even jump into the top four. Utah edged out USC in the first meeting in Salt Lake City 43-42. USC did average 8.1 yards per play in that loss. Utah’s Cam Rising has been good overall, but he has had a few games where he cost his team a win (Florida and Oregon this year specifically). Big 12 Title Game Saturday at 12 pm Eastern- Kansas State vs. TCU (TCU -2.5, 61.5) Remember Kansas State led TCU 28-10 in the second quarter in their regular season meeting at TCU on October 22nd. Adrian Martinez was hurt in that game and then Will Howard came in and dominated for quite a while. Howard then got hurt and Kansas State was forced to play a freshman third stringer for a while. TCU has been fantastic this year, but I think this is a really hard test for them. Kansas State’s Chris Klieman is 44-20 ATS all time and 30-15-1 at Kansas State. SEC Title Game Saturday at 4 pm Eastern- LSU vs. Georgia (Georgia -17.5, 50.5) LSU had a chance to be in the playoff as well, but they blew that chance with their loss to Texas A&M on the road last weekend. Brian Kelly’s team is in an odd spot here. They of course would like to win the SEC, but they have to be highly disappointed given just a week ago they had higher aspirations. Georgia would like to get the #1 seed in the playoffs with a good performance here.Big Ten Title Game Saturday at 8 pm Eastern- Purdue vs. Michigan (Michigan -16, 51.5) Jim Harbaugh and his Michigan Wolverines went to Columbus and impressively handled the Buckeyes in the second half last weekend. The Wolverines have at least a chance of getting the top seed with a big performance here. The Big Ten West was a clustered mess and Purdue ended up being the opponent here. This could definitely be called a let down spot for Michigan given the massive game from a week ago. Purdue isn’t nearly on Michigan’s level though. A very tough game to pick a side in my opinion.

3 Angles to Watch In College Football Late Season

Monday, Oct 31, 2022

3 Angles To Watch Late Season CFB The college football season feels like it just started, but we are technically now into the later part of the regular season. This week the games will be played in November. That means that rivalry games are right around the corner, and it also means you should check the weather before placing your wagers. I have found three late season angles you will want to keep an eye on for the late regular season period in college football. 1. Big Conference Game Favorites Late- The angle here is backing big favorites in a conference game late in the year. The filters in this query are favorites of 21 points or larger in game nine of their season or later. Those big favorites in this spot are 249-199 ATS (55.6% ATS wins) dating back to 2006. The return on investment on this angle is much higher on road teams (14% ROI) as compared to home teams (5.6% ROI). My theory here is some teams that are big dogs this late in the season are ready to be done for the year.2. Late Season Windy Unders- This is a nice totals angle for late regular season games played in windy conditions. In this angle the home team must be playing game number 11 or later of the season. The temperature must be 60 degrees or cooler, and the average wind in the game must be 10 miles per hour or higher. The under is a whopping 204-130 (61.1% Unders) dating all the way back to 2006 in this situation. The weather always matters, but some of these games with cooler temperatures and wind combined with rain or snow late in the season can be great for under bettors. 3. Fade Non Conference Favorites Late- Non-conference favorites late in the season don’t seem to be motivated enough to cover large spreads. From game nine of the regular season on, with a spread of -13 or higher in a non-conference contest, fading that big favorite has been a good move. The non-con favorite is 46% ATS overall since 2006, but when you filter it down by teams receiving 60% or more of the bets (public favorites) the non-conference favorite dips all the way to 42.5% ATS since 2006. Be on the lookout for these spots. I believe these are really dangerous spots for the favorite largely because they usually have big rivalry games right around them on the schedule. This is the type of game that they might look over. Best of luck with your late season college football wagering. I hope these angles are helpful to you along the way!

College Basketball Season Preparation: 3 Ways to Find Early Edges

Saturday, Oct 29, 2022

The college basketball season is rapidly approaching. College basketball can be an extremely overwhelming because there are over 300 teams in Division I. Needless to say, it can be very tough to be an expert on every single team, especially at the beginning of the season. Let’s take a look at three ways I think you can be be prepared and find edges early in the season on the college hardcourt.1. Examine Teams With New Coaches First - Why would you want to spend a bunch of time on teams that are very similar to a year ago? If the public masses know the team easily, you better believe the oddsmakers are going to know that team well also. Look for teams with a new coaching staff. These new coaches are likely to want to do things differently. Will there be a faster or slower tempo? Maybe they will switch from man to zone defense. Major turnover gives you more of a chance to have an edge on the books. 2. Focus Most On Under the Radar Conferences - It’s easiest to find a lot of good information on the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, etc. Why not just learn those teams inside and out? There’s nothing wrong with knowing the major schools inside and out, but focusing on them first is a poor strategy. The oddsmakers know these teams much better too. We are looking to uncover value and early in the season there is absolutely more value in the smaller conferences. Start small and work your way up to bigger conferences.3. Back the Veterans Early - While there are some exceptions to the rule, veteran teams are more often worthy of your backing in the early season. The teams who have had a chance to work together for many years and have the same coaching staff are a couple steps ahead in November and December. I don’t like to back inexperienced teams early in the year, especially when they are on the road. Even the teams who have an ultra high ceiling can look pretty bad in the early going.The large slates of games every day in college hoops can be overwhelming. I recommend working your way into it and being careful with your bankroll. The season is a very long grind!

3 College Football Angles To Watch

Friday, Sep 30, 2022

There can be some very overrated angles/systems in college football, but there are also some great angles that can help you win in the long run. The ability to decipher which angles are predictive and which are garbage is crucial. Let’s take a look at three angles that I believe can help all college football bettors! These statistics listed are all from games from 2006 through today. Road underdogs off a home favorite win (192-147 ATS or 56.6% ATS) This angle is a conference road underdog that is coming off a home ATS win. The team also has an overall winning percentage of 50-70%. As a whole, road teams have been undervalued in the past decade in college football. The road underdogs who come in with momentum have been valuable. Windy unders (550-418 ATS or 56.8%) This is a simple angle that has been a big winner for many years in a row. The average wind in the game is 13 mph or more and the posted total is set at 43.5 or higher. While many will talk about rain or snow, the wind is by far the biggest deal to totals bettors. Keep in mind as well that heavy wind is an even bigger deal when betting college football than the NFL. These quarterbacks on the whole don’t have arms that are as strong as NFL quarterbacks. A game played in heavy wind will change the play calling a lot, and that has led to unders. Small Road Conference Underdogs on the ML (904-1645 or 35.5% but with a 7.1% Return on Investment) This is taking a conference road underdog of 13.5 points or fewer on the moneyline in the first ten games of the season. This is a huge sample size and it has been a solid winner. Why eliminate games after game ten of the season? There are too many games with a lot of variance when some teams simply don’t care any more in the last week or two of the regular season. Again, we see that road teams have value and that has especially been true in conference contests. Keep an eye out for games that would fit these angles as you do your college football handicapping the rest of the season. This information could give you a little extra edge when placing those bets!

College Football: 3 Winless ATS Teams- Should You Buy Low?

Monday, Sep 26, 2022

We’re already to week five in the college football season. Time flies when you are having a good time. College football is a fan favorite for a reason. We’ve had yet another early season full of upsets and all kinds of craziness. In general, a good idea is to try to buy low and sell high. That is good stock market advice and college football betting advice as well. You want to try to find teams who have been burning money and buy in on them if there is a good reason to expect better results going forward. Let’s take a look at three winless teams ATS so far this year. Are they teams I’d be interested in backing going forward at all? They need to be evaluated on a case by case basis. Georgia State Panthers (0-4 ATS This Season) Georgia State had a season win total of 7.5 before the season. There have been a lot of sharp bettors looking to bet on this team so far this year, but it hasn’t worked out. Georgia State’s defense has let them down. The Panthers have allowed at least 35 points in all four of their contests. I think this is a well-coached team and they have played a relatively tough schedule, especially for a Sun Belt program. I don’t have much interest in backing them against the triple option attack of Army this weekend, but going forward there should be some chances. The schedule lightens up later in the season for the Panthers, and virtually no one is going to want to bet them based on how they have been burning money. I think there will be some solid contrarian spots to bet on this team. Auburn Tigers (0-4 ATS This Season) Bryan Harsin was reportedly going to be fired if the Missouri Tigers beat Auburn this past Saturday. Auburn tried to give them the game, but Missouri refused to take it. That was one the craziest finishes in college football this year. Missouri missed a very short game winning field goal in regulation and then fumbled the ball right before the goal line when they would have won the game in overtime. Harsin is still in a really bad spot, and this Auburn team lacks a real identity at this point. I see no reason to try to be looking for a time to buy low on this squad. There will have to be some major changes here before I’m interested in backing them. Utah State Aggies (0-4 ATS This Season)Utah State had an amazing run last season. The Aggies won the Mountain West Conference in stunning fashion in 2021. They entered the season last year with a win total of 3 or 3.5. They are now 1-3 overall and 0-4 ATS this season. Their lone win is over lowly UConn. They also lost at home 35-7 to Weber State. Logan Bonner threw 36 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season. So far this year, Bonner has 6 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Bonner threw a whopping 5 interceptions in Utah State’s home loss to UNLV last week. That was a game where Utah State actually won the box score, but finished a ridiculous -6 in turnover margin.Blake Anderson is a really good coach, and I do think Utah State will continue to fight the rest of the season. This is a team I will look for spots to bet on later in the year.

Three Group of 5 Teams to Follow/Watch In the 2022 Season

Monday, Aug 29, 2022

We all know about the big names like Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Michigan, and Notre Dame. Of course those teams are going to be tremendous. Do you think the oddsmakers know that? Absolutely! I find it more valuable to try to look for teams who could make some noise that are off the radar a bit. Let’s take a look at three teams from Group of 5 conferences who I think you should be paying attention to going into the season.Air Force FalconsThe Mountain West is a strong conference, and I expect Air Force to be a true contender here. The Falcons are coached by Troy Calhoun, who is an underrated coach by many bettors. They have a veteran star signal caller in Haaziq Daniels. A great decision maker at quarterback is crucial in this triple option attack, and Air Force absolutely has that in Daniels. They are loaded in the backfield as well. Despite having an inexperienced offensive line last season, they led the nation in rushing yards. Look out for a ton of rushing yards this year! It’s also important to note that Air Force has a very favorable schedule. There’s only a game or two where there is even a chance they will be an underdog. The Falcons get Boise State at home, and they don’t have to play Fresno State. Toledo Rockets The Toledo Rockets went 7-6 last year despite having a much higher expected win percentage based on advanced statistics. They lost a bunch of very close games. The ball didn’t seem to bounce their way. Toledo has the most talent of any team in the Mid American Conference. DeQuan Finn is now the clear cut starter at quarterback, and he’s a great runner and a solid passer. Peny Boone transferred in from Maryland to be the starter at running back.The MAC is always wild, and I would expect no different this year. Those MACtion games in the middle of the week come in November can be about as good as you get. Toledo hasn’t made bettors money in the last three years on the whole, and I think that makes them undervalued coming into this season. Can the talent win out for the Rockets?Southern Miss Golden EaglesThe Southern Miss football program has a nice history, but last year the train went way off the tracks. The Golden Eagles went 3-9 and 4-8 ATS. They had so many quarterback injuries and talent issues that Frank Gore Jr. ended up playing quarterback at the end of the season. Gore is a good runner (one of the best in the Sun Belt), and Southern Miss will be happy to have him back at running back this season. Ty Keyes is said to be ready to go for the season at quarterback.The Southern Miss defense wasn’t bad last year. They were put in terrible spots consistently, but they did stand up and do a solid job given everything thrown their way. Ole Miss transfer Tylan Knight comes in and he should be star at linebacker. The secondary is very good as well. This team is off the radar of most people because they were so bad a year ago, but they are more talented than their record appeared. They could be one to watch on an against the spread basis this year!

Four College Football Coaching & Schematic Changes to Consider

Sunday, Aug 28, 2022

As a college football bettor, one of the first things you should do early in the season is look for teams making large changes. This can be head coaching changes or it can be coordinator changes. Looking for drastic changes can give you a chance to find value in the early season. Let’s take a look at four teams where there could be major changes this year.Pittsburgh PanthersPat Narduzzi is still here, but there’s a big change at offensive coordinator with Frank Cignetti taking over after Mark Whipple left for Nebraska. Pittsburgh was a pass heavy team under Whipple with Kenny Pickett at the helm. Cignetti has made it clear he wants Pittsburgh to be a run first team that controls the clock. The Panthers still have a great defense. Pickett is gone and Kedon Slovis takes over at quarterback. The Pitt offense should look a lot different this year.Washington HuskiesKalen DeBoer is a great offensive mind, and he steps in after the Jimmy Lake era flopped in a big way. DeBoer did some tremendous things at both Indiana and Fresno State. Michael Penix Jr. transfers in to Washington. The Huskies were 74th in the nation in tempo last year. I would expect a faster pace of play this season. Can Penix get back to his old form from before the injury? I wouldn’t expect as many defensive slog it out type games here as we have seen in recent seasons.New Mexico State AggiesJerry Kill takes over at New Mexico State. This is undeniably a very tough job. Kill is a quality coach, but it won’t be a quick fix. New Mexico State ranked 28th in the nation in tempo last year, and Kill has made it very clear they are going to slow down this year. New Mexico State is very weak at quarterback and they are going to do their best to run the football and control the clock. I would expect this team to go from top 30 in the country in tempo to bottom 30 in the country in tempo. Kansas State WildcatsCollin Klein takes over as the new offensive coordinator in Manhattan. I think Chris Klieman is an excellent coach. He has typically been seen as a defensive-minded guy who wants to keeps games lower scoring and grind out games. Klein has been quoted multiple times in the offseason as saying this team wants to play faster. Kansas State ranked 127th out of 130 teams in the country in pace of play last year. They bring in Adrian Martinez at quarterback, and that should make this team interesting to watch at the very least. Can he get his turnover problems under control? I’m still a little skeptical that Kansas State would want to play very fast, but I’ll be closely watching for changes here.