July Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

July Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of July, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four National League starters which you should be cautious with supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable. 

Jose Quintana – New York Mets

The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in baseball in July, moving into an NL wild card position while shockingly passing up the Braves in the NL East standings, at least for a moment. The bullpen for New York has turned things around and 35-year-old Jose Quintana has been an unexpected source of success in the rotation. Quintana posted only nine MLB wins from 2020 to 2023 as he bounced around the league after posting mostly average results with the Cubs in the late 2010s, with his best seasons in 2015 and 2016 with the White Sox. Quintana’s 2024 season line is relatively average with a 4.02 ERA and a 7.1 K/9 but since mid-June he owns a 1.98 ERA. Next to that ERA is a 4.75 FIP which looks more realistic as in his last 41 innings Quintana has a .192 BABIP and an insane 99.4% strand rate. Quintana has faced the Nationals, Cubs, and Rockies in four of those seven starts to face three of the worst teams in the NL, but his current pace is not sustainable. Incredibly he has those great numbers even with a marginal 3.5 BB/9 and a high 1.5 HR/9 as Quintana’s run of success is likely to be short-lived. 

Mitch Keller – Pittsburgh Pirates

Keller showed some potential through rough conventional numbers in 2021 and 2022 on a struggling Pirates team before his breakthrough All-Star season last year. Keller’s strong first half deteriorated into an average season overall in 2023 and the same thing could occur in 2024. Pittsburgh’s rotation is getting a lot of attention, but Keller is a pitcher that has overachieved going 10-5 with a 3.34 ERA. His FIP is a half-run higher than that at 3.84 while his K/9 has fallen considerably compared to last season. He has a lower BABIP and a lower HR/9 this season compared with last season but over his last six starts his ERA is 3.28 with a 4.46 FIP and his K/9 has fallen even further to just 7.6. He faced losing teams including the White Sox in three of his last six starts while four of those six starts were at home where his career ERA is nearly a run lower. The Pirates are currently just above .500 and are an exciting team on the rise but Keller doesn’t deserve the valuation of the higher ceiling starters in the rotation. With Jared Jones and Bailey Falter recently hitting the IL, pressure will grow on Keller while the bullpen supporting him will face more strain as the team faces several tough upcoming road series in late July and early August. 

Matt Waldron – San Diego Padres

The success of Matt Waldon has come out of nowhere as he was an 18th round pick back in 2019 and mostly has struggled in his minor league climb, including posting a 3-9 record with an 8.44 ERA in AAA in 2022 and a 2-10 record with a 7.31 ERA in AAA in 2023. Waldron has a 7.7 K/9 alongside his solid 3.64 ERA, and he has pitched better on the road as his success hasn’t been a product of pitching at Petco Park. There are some cracks appearing in recent starts for Waldron however with a 3.61 ERA in his last seven starts since late June next to a 4.58 FIP. His K/9 is just barely above 7.0 in that span, and he has allowed seven home runs in his last seven starts. While Waldron has provided solid innings as the Padres look to stay in a wild card position in the crowded NL race, the team might be wise to add another starting option to the rotation at the trade deadline. 

Hunter Greene – Cincinnati Reds 

While he went 5-13 as a 22-year-old rookie in 2022, Hunter Greene dazzled at times with a great upside. His K/9 was 11.8 in 2022 and 12.2 last season. This season it has dipped to a still impressive 10.2, but his elevated walk rate has remained. Greene had one of the NL’s higher HR/9 rates in 2022 and 2023, but somehow this season his HR/9 is below 0.8 this season, even with no change to his groundball rate. Greene has a 3.14 ERA but a much higher FIP and while he has put together perhaps the best month of his career in recent weeks, there should be concerns about his potential to maintain that pace. Greene has allowed just two home runs in his last six starts, posting a 2.05 ERA in 35 innings. It has been a favorable draw however with four of his six starts against the Pirates, Tigers, and Rockies. His BABIP in that span is just .237 and he is about to enter August, where his worst monthly career splits have been in his young career.