by Kyle Hunter
Monday, May 27, 2024I recently looked at five starting pitchers who should experience negative regression. Let’s take a look at a few who should experience positive regression. Keep in mind that positive regression doesn’t mean a player is improving, it just means that a player is moving back to its previously expected value (mean). With advanced statistics we can get a pretty good picture of guys who could experience this. Here are five to keep an eye on. These are not in any particular order.
- Patrick Sandoval (5.60 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 4.02 SIERA) Sandoval has a strikeout rate of 23.1%. He is elite at missing bats. Opponents have an unsustainable batting average on balls in play of .348. He has left only 62.3% of runners on base. The knock on Sandoval is he walks too many batters. Sandoval isn’t an elite pitcher, but he is clearly better than his 5.60 ERA. A potential buy low candidate here.
- Jack Flaherty (3.84 ERA, 2.98 FIP, 2.27 SIERA) Flaherty has been up and down throughout his career. He is throwing the ball extremely well for the Tigers this season. Flaherty is striking out 11.95 batters per nine innings. Opponents have a .340 batting average on balls in play. The Tigers in general are much more competitive than they have been, and I think Flaherty is a pitcher to watch the rest of the way. His velocity is solid and his walk rate is just 1.33 walks per nine innings. Excellent.
- Tyler Glasnow (3.09 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 2.60 SIERA) Glasnow has top of the line stuff. His fastball averages 96.3 mph and his slider and curveball are tremendous strikeout pitches. Glasnow has had some bad luck in recent starts, so if someone wants to get too low on him I would be happy to buy stock. Glasnow has a superb 0.91 WHIP on the season. His hard hit batted ball percentage is below 30%.
- George Kirby (4.33 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 3.47 SIERA) Kirby is still a good young pitcher. He is only 26 so his prime is still ahead of him. Kirby was excellent in each of the last two seasons, but his numbers this year haven’t been as good. I expect him to bounce back. Kirby has elite ccontrol. He is walking less than one batter per nine innings. The lack of free passes is a huge boost to long term performance. He is great at inducing soft contact from hitters too. Kirby is someone I’ll look to back in certain spots going forward.
- Pablo Lopez (5.25 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 2.96 SIERA) Lopez is a great candidate for positive regression in the coming weeks and months. Lopez has a strikeout rate of a whopping 27.7%. He has an extremely low walk rate of 4.0%. His left on base rate is very low at 63.6% on the season. Lopez has a walk rate of less than one batter per nine innings in his last five starts. He has three walks and 32 strikeouts in that time. His home run rate allowed should come down, and he is still a quality pitcher.
