College Football: Two Season Win Total Overs

College football season is here! It’s been a long wait, but we are back in business. I’ve had a lot of success with season win totals in the past. Two years ago I went 12-3 on season win totals. Last year I went 12-4-1 on season win totals.

With the season about to start, I wanted to cover two season win total “overs” I like and fill you in on why I like them.

College Football Season Win Totals: Two Overs

Sam Houston State over 4.5- The Sam Houston State Bearkats went 3-9 last year. They started the season 0-6, before going 3-3 in the final six games of the season. 

Sam Houston State was very close in many of their losses. That includes a 21-16 loss to the powerful Liberty Flames. Only one of their nine losses was by more than two touchdowns. The Bearkats offense was horrible early in the season, but they started picking up their level quite a bit late in the season. 

Conference USA is the weakest of all of the conferences. That gives a team who finished a little below the middle of the conference a real chance to make a jump without getting far better. Liberty is better than everyone else. Jacksonville State is likely a little too good as well. I think Sam Houston State has as much of a chance as anyone else. 

I think Sam Houston State will be favored in five games this season. They will only be an underdog of more than 10 points three times this season. They are definitely capable of pulling some upsets. 

Appalachian State over 8 The Appalachian State Mountaineers should be favored in either 10 or 11 games this season. With a season total of eight, we have a nice cushion here. Other than the game at Clemson, they should have a really solid chance in every game. Even their game against Liberty is in Boone, and this is a tremendous home field advantage. 

Appalachian State has a really good quarterback and a group of excellent wide receivers. I think their wide receivers and tight ends are the best in the Sun Belt. Shrader was a nice pickup in the transfer portal to help their offensive line. The Mountaineers brought in four excellent transfers in the secondary to shore up their pass defense too. Appalachian State has an excellent special teams unit, and I think that will win them a close game or too.

I feel like eight is the floor for this team, and the ceiling is 11-1 or so. I’m happy to bet the over here.