CFB: Laying The Points Late in Season

There’s only a couple weeks left in the college football season. There is a big difference in handicapping late regular season games compared to early or middle of the season contests. Does the team with a poor record have a reason to care late in the year? In some cases there are reasons for that team to be trying hard for a new coach. There are also times where specific coaches are great at motivating a team even when they seemingly have little to play for in the larger scheme of things. Still, most of the time these very weak teams struggle late in the regular season.

I don’t like to lay a lot of points as a general rule. It doesn’t feel comfortable to me. The numbers show that laying the points late in the regular season is overall a winning strategy though.

When does laying the points pay off the best for bettors? From game number 10 until game number 12 of the regular season. 

Here’s a late season favorites system with the filters: 

-Game 10-12 of the regular season

-Opponent winning percentage (straight up) is less than 50%

-The team you are betting on is -16.5 or larger

-The team you are betting on has covered at a rate of 55% ATS or lower so far this season

The ATS record for this system since 2006 is 201-140 (59% ATS). 

The thought process for adding the ATS cover rate for the season thus far is getting rid of teams that have covered at a very high rate because the point spread would likely be inflated on those teams by this point in the season.

Road teams only in the system listed above are 57-25. A smaller sample size to be sure, but impressive results for the long term.  This week, there are five applicable games, including one team (South Alabama) on the road:

South Florida -17 vs. Tulsa
Georgia -42 vs. Massachusetts
Tennessee -42 vs. UTEP
South Alabama -22.5 at Southern Mississippi
Texas St. -20.5 vs. Georgia St.

Don’t be afraid to lay the points late in the regular season. It’s a completely different setup handicapping college football in these situations late in the year.