by Kyle Hunter
Tuesday, Mar 18, 2025NCAA Tournament 3 Angles/Trends To Watch
The NCAA Tournament is finally here! As a huge sports fan, I can confidently say this is my favorite sporting event of the year. The first four days of March Madness are as exciting as you get in the world of sports. Today, I want to take a look at three angles/trends I think you should keep in mind when placing your bets during the NCAA Tournament this year.
The NCAA Tournament is finally here! As a huge sports fan, I can confidently say this is my favorite sporting event of the year. The first four days of March Madness are as exciting as you get in the world of sports. Today, I want to take a look at three angles/trends I think you should keep in mind when placing your bets during the NCAA Tournament this year.
- The Mountain West is 26-53 ATS (32.9%) in their last 79 NCAA Tournament games. Mountain West teams are 13-33 ATS in the Round of 64. San Diego State made that long run a couple years ago, but outside of that the Mountain West has absolutely been burning bettors money for many years. The Mountain West is clearly worse this year than it was a year ago. New Mexico takes on Marquette in Cleveland. Marquette certainly has the higher upside, but neither team has been consistent this season. San Diego State takes on North Carolina in the First Four game in Dayton. North Carolina has a massive talent advantage in that one as well. Will the Tar Heels have a chip on their shoulder? Be careful before you trust the MWC in general.
- NCAA Tournament with a spread of six points or more and a total of 137 or higher are 197-143 to the under (57.9% unders) since 2005. What is the thought process here? These are games that are less likely to go to overtime. They are also less likely to be a fouling fest in the last minute or two. These have done especially well in the early rounds of the tournament. There are going to be a bunch of matches to this angle this season. Importantly, I would definitely never bet an angle like this blindly. If it is a matchup of two teams who are going to push tempo all the way and get a bunch of trips to the line, that is one where I would sit out on following this angle.
- #11 and #12 Seeds facing an opponent with an ATS Win (Cover) Rate of 55% or higher on the year- these teams are 67-41 ATS (62% ATS). The #11 and #12 seeds have been profitable for bettors in general in the past decade, but when the opposition has been a great cover team through the year this angle has been even better. The middle of the brackets in terms of seeds have been valuable to underdog bettors. There are top teams in the #1 and #2 seeds, but in the #5 and #6 areas we’ve often found some inconsistent teams who aren’t worthy of laying the number of points they are laying.
Remember these angles are just one part of the handicap, but I think all three of these are good to keep in mind when getting set for the NCAA Tournament this year.
