by Kyle Hunter
Tuesday, Feb 25, 2025March is almost here! It’s a great time of the year to be a college basketball bettor as well as a college basketball fan. Let’s take a look at four teams that might be good to sell high on when betting against the number going forward.
- Clemson Tigers (17-10 ATS) The Clemson Tigers have been absolutely on fire. Why would anyone want to sell them right now? First, the market is extremely high on Clemson based on their recent results. It is hard to continually beat the number when this large of an adjustment is being made. Second, Brad Brownell’s teams have not been good against the number in March. The ACC is much weaker than it was in the past, but Clemson is going to be laying some really big numbers in the next couple weeks. Clemson has a 22-5 record and just winning these games and improving their record should be enough for the Tigers. Shot Quality ranks Clemson as the luckiest team in the ACC so far this season.
- Middle Tenn State (13-10 ATS) MTSU sits third in the Conference USA standings. They rate 18th in the nation in luck factor according to KenPom. MTSU has a tough road double at New Mexico State and at UTEP in their next couple games. They then must come home to host Liberty, who I believe is the best team in CUSA. MTSU is dead last in Conference USA in defensive rebounding percentage. The Blue Raiders also struggle from the free throw line. They have had loads of close wins in the last couple months. I don’t think they’ll keep getting all the bounces the rest of the way.
- Robert Morris Colonials (22-6 ATS) If you’ve been betting Robert Morris all the way through the season, you are rich right now. If you haven’t, I think it is too late to join in the party. A 22-6 ATS record is going to get the attention of oddsmakers and the betting marketplace regardless of what conference you are in, and I’ve started to see these lines being adjusted. Robert Morris only has one regular season game left, but I think fading them ATS in the Horizon League Tournament could be profitable as well. This is clearly a good team, but I don’t think there is a large gap from the top of the Horizon League to teams right in the middle.
4. Michigan State Spartans (17-9-1 ATS) Tom Izzo is a great coach, so it is a little scary fading him going into the late season period. Still, Michigan State has been playing at its peak of late in my opinion. Michigan State doesn’t have outside shooters, and they are reliant on getting to the hoop and getting to the free throw line. The Spartans don’t force many turnovers on defense. Michigan State plays a tough schedule the rest of the regular season. This is probably my least favorite of the fades, but their advanced numbers do suggest regression.
