by Kyle Hunter
Tuesday, Feb 25, 2025March is right around the corner! It’s a great time of the year to be a college basketball bettor as well as a college basketball fan. Let’s take a look at four teams that might be good to buy low on when betting against the number going forward.
- Seattle Redhawks (9-14-1 ATS) Seattle is the single most unlucky team according to KenPom’s luck factor. Seattle also ranks as very unfortunate in the Shot Quality luck ratings. Seattle has a high upside, but they haven’t played consistently enough. Seattle led Grand Canyon on the road for much of the game before losing by nine. They also beat the Washington Huskies on the road. They dod a good job forcing turnovers, and they are good on the defensive glass. They get home games against Cal Baptist and Grand Canyon in the next week.
- St. Louis Billikens (9-16 ATS) St. Louis has two elite mid-major players in Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope. Avila has lower shooting percentages this year than he did a year ago, but I think he can still take over a game with his play making ability. St. Louis is rated as a bit unlucky from the advanced numbers. The Billikens do struggle with turnovers on offense, so I would look to back them primarily against teams who aren’t very good at forcing turnovers. The market is low on this team, and I want to be above the market here.
- Oregon Ducks (12-15 ATS) Oregon won at Wisconsin this past weekend. The Ducks have been inconsistent this year, but I really like Dana Altman and his ability to have teams playing their best basketball in March. If you filter coaches ATS records to only the last six games of the regular season and then the postseason, Altman ranks among the five most profitable coaches. Altman’s teams have looked far worse than this Oregon team and still been strong ATS late in the season. Oregon has play makers and the Ducks have proven capable of winning. I’m looking for spots to bet on Oregon.
- Sam Houston State Bearkats (8-17 ATS) Sam Houston is 10th in the nation in 3 point field goal percentage offense. Sam Houston has taken some really unfortunate bounces this year though. They are easily the unluckiest team in the conference. Sam Houston has lost three overtime games in Conference USA action (zero OT wins). The Bearkats showed a lot recently in wins against Jacksonville State (first in the league) and on the road at Western Kentucky. Sam Houston is 4-11 in CUSA action, but all 11 losses have come by single digits. They have been very close, and I like their chances of some positive regression down the stretch.
