Four NCAA BB Teams to Sell High

Betting on sports can be similar to buying and selling in the stock market. You want to look to buy teams when they are low and sell teams when the market is too high on them. I want to take a look at four teams that have done well for bettors so far this year. These are teams where it might makes sense to try to sell high while you have a chance.

UC Davis (10-7-1 ATS) UC Davis is 7th out of 364 teams in the country in KenPom’s luck factor. They are also among the luckiest teams based on Shot Quality’s data. UC Davis ranks 247th in the country in shot selection. They also rank a poor 309th in shot selection allowed. They are very heavily relying on forcing turnovers to keep their defensive efficiency numbers up. UC Davis has had a friendly schedule to this point in the conference too. That will not be the case going forward. UC Davis plays their next four games on the road. UC Riverside and UC Irvine are the next two up on the schedule. I’ll look for spots to fade UC Davis.

2. Middle Tennessee State (11-4-2 ATS) MTSU has been a covering machine this year, but I don’t think that will continue the rest of the way. Middle Tennessee State is 21st in KenPom’s luck factor. The Blue Raiders play four of their next six games on the road. There is definitely some luck involved in 3 point FG percentage defense. MTSU is allowing opponents to shoot just 30.2% (40th best in the country) from long range so far this year. They are 274th in the country in open 3 rate allowed though. MTSU has been poor at defending the 3 point line in recent seasons. I think this number will regress toward the mean.

Cleveland State (12-6 ATS) The Cleveland State Vikings have had a really good season. I think this team is well coached and they are improved. I think that the market has gotten a bit high on them though. Cleveland State is 9-1 in a Horizon League that is a bit weaker than it has normally been. Cleveland State relies on turnovers and offensive rebounds to do a lot of their damage. This is a team that has played the #312 strength of schedule so far this season. The road games at Fort Wayne and Northern Kentucky will be good tests for them in the upcoming days.

St. Bonaventure (14-5 ATS) The Bonnies are a pretty good team, but there is a point spread tax on them at this point after this kind of covering stretch. DaSante Bowen is still out and Chance Moore missed their last game too. The Bonnies lack the depth necessary to keep playing at such a high level without multiple key starters. They are giving up nearly 1.11 points per possession in A10 play. Their defense that is normally a strength is weaker than average this season.