by Team Del Genio
Saturday, Jul 13, 2024If there is a pitcher who embodies the state of Major League pitching in 2024, it is Seth Lugo. The right-hander has been outstanding this season with an 11-2 record, a 2.17 era, and a 1.03 whip. He has fourteen quality starts this season with five in a row going into his start on Saturday at Boston against the Red Sox.
After throwing six shutout innings against Cleveland the previous Sunday, he has not allowed an earned run in two straight outings. He has a 1.46 era and a 1.00 whip in his last four starts. He induces a lot of fly balls. This season, 37.6% of the batted balls against him are fly balls to the outfield, which is up over his 35.2% career average. The danger of these fly balls is that the more that are hit into the outfield, the more that will clear the fence. Lugo gave up 19 home runs last year pitching for San Diego which was the most he had ever given up. Of course, he has spent most of the middle seasons of his career pitching out of the bullpen. Last year, he averaged 1.17 home runs allowed per nine innings, which was not much higher than his 1.05 homers per nine inning rate for his career. Yet the 13.3% fly ball-to-home run rate he gave up was the second-highest mark in his career.
If there was a pitcher who could benefit from a less lively baseball coming into this year, it was Lugo. The baseballs this season seem “dead” when compared to previous years with the biggest impact being fewer home runs. The home run-to-fly ball rates are down all across the league. For Lugo, the changes are drastic. He has a 7.4% home run-to-fly ball ratio this year is the lowest mark in his career, beating his HR/FB ratio of 10.0% in 2018 when he was pitching for the New York Mets. He has only given up nine home runs, and his 0.70 home runs per nine innings allowed is the lowest of his career.
Yet Lugo is not just benefitting from the changes in the baseball this year. With the influence of analytics calling on pitchers to throw as hard as possible down the center of the plate and then rely on their stuff to create movement and deception, Lugo’s diverse arsenal makes him one of the trickiest pitchers to face. The 34-year-older has always been somewhat of what used to be called a junk-baller. He was throwing five different pitches when he joined the Mets in 2016. He had a four-seam fastball that moved differently than his two-seam fastball. He had a conventional curve ball, slider, and changeup as off-speed pitches. In 2017, he added a sweeper but eventually stopped using it. Last year in San Diego when he signed as a starting pitcher, he added a sweeper and a slurve. This year, he brought back that cutter for an eighth pitch. Lugo scouts what pitches opposing hitters prefer to see and then offers the opposite type of pitch.
Lugo's batted ball analytic projections are not favorable since he does not strike out enough batters to offer him a margin for error, yet that may even be changing. He struck out ten Guardians in his last start, and he has 30 strikeouts in his last four starts over 24 2/3 innings. If Lugo continues to miss more bats, he will be very tough to beat in the second half of the season.
Good luck - TDG.
After throwing six shutout innings against Cleveland the previous Sunday, he has not allowed an earned run in two straight outings. He has a 1.46 era and a 1.00 whip in his last four starts. He induces a lot of fly balls. This season, 37.6% of the batted balls against him are fly balls to the outfield, which is up over his 35.2% career average. The danger of these fly balls is that the more that are hit into the outfield, the more that will clear the fence. Lugo gave up 19 home runs last year pitching for San Diego which was the most he had ever given up. Of course, he has spent most of the middle seasons of his career pitching out of the bullpen. Last year, he averaged 1.17 home runs allowed per nine innings, which was not much higher than his 1.05 homers per nine inning rate for his career. Yet the 13.3% fly ball-to-home run rate he gave up was the second-highest mark in his career.
If there was a pitcher who could benefit from a less lively baseball coming into this year, it was Lugo. The baseballs this season seem “dead” when compared to previous years with the biggest impact being fewer home runs. The home run-to-fly ball rates are down all across the league. For Lugo, the changes are drastic. He has a 7.4% home run-to-fly ball ratio this year is the lowest mark in his career, beating his HR/FB ratio of 10.0% in 2018 when he was pitching for the New York Mets. He has only given up nine home runs, and his 0.70 home runs per nine innings allowed is the lowest of his career.
Yet Lugo is not just benefitting from the changes in the baseball this year. With the influence of analytics calling on pitchers to throw as hard as possible down the center of the plate and then rely on their stuff to create movement and deception, Lugo’s diverse arsenal makes him one of the trickiest pitchers to face. The 34-year-older has always been somewhat of what used to be called a junk-baller. He was throwing five different pitches when he joined the Mets in 2016. He had a four-seam fastball that moved differently than his two-seam fastball. He had a conventional curve ball, slider, and changeup as off-speed pitches. In 2017, he added a sweeper but eventually stopped using it. Last year in San Diego when he signed as a starting pitcher, he added a sweeper and a slurve. This year, he brought back that cutter for an eighth pitch. Lugo scouts what pitches opposing hitters prefer to see and then offers the opposite type of pitch.
Lugo's batted ball analytic projections are not favorable since he does not strike out enough batters to offer him a margin for error, yet that may even be changing. He struck out ten Guardians in his last start, and he has 30 strikeouts in his last four starts over 24 2/3 innings. If Lugo continues to miss more bats, he will be very tough to beat in the second half of the season.
Good luck - TDG.
