by Team Del Genio
Sunday, Jun 30, 2024Freddy Peralta had a 4-4 record going into his start on June 19th. His ERA was 4.38 and he had a 1.20 WHIP. Those numbers were disappointing to the Milwaukee Brewers after he posted a 12-10 record last year with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He was coming off a bad outing where he allowed six runs in 5 1/3 innings against Cincinnati. The right-hander’s velocity was fine in that game, and he did get 16 whiffs.
We were on the Brewers in that game on June 19th when they were in Los Angeles to play the Angels. We noted at the time that in his previous four starts, Peralta posted a 3.42 era and a 1.14 whip. Those results against the Reds appeared to be just a blip on the radar. His fastball is better than ever with it being rated at 127 from the Stuff+ measurements (with a 100 being considered an MLB average pitch). and his change-up and slider have been more precise this season. Milwaukee had won eight of their twelve games this season when Peralta was their starting pitcher and the oddsmakers installed them as the money line favorite at -110 or higher.
Milwaukee would win that game by a 2-0 score. Peralta only gave up three hits and walked two batters while striking out eight of the Angels hitters. The win improved his record to 5-4. He was probably pitching better than his 4.06 era would indicate. He had a 1.17 whip. The right-hander’s velocity was fine against the Angels, and he did get 16 whiffs.
We backed the Brewers again in Peralta’s next start at home against the Texas Rangers on June 24th. Milwaukee won the game, 6-3, yet Peralta did not get the decision. He gave up two earned runs in five innings despite only giving up four base hits. He struck out six batters.
We considered Peralta once again in his start on June 30th at home against the Chicago Cubs. Ultimately, we passed on Milwaukee given the price with oddsmakers installing the Brewers as a money line favorite in the -190 range. The Cubs were sending out Kyle Hendricks who had been pitching well in his previous two starts. Yet our decision to forego the Brewers did not have anything to do with a lack of confidence in Peralta. He delivered against Chicago by allowing only two hits and one earned run in seven innings, with Milwaukee winning the game by a 7-1 score. He struck out eight Cub hitters and walked only two.
In his last three starts since that bad effort against the Reds, Peralta has a 2-0 record with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. He has 22 strikeouts in those 18 innings, and the Brewers have won all three games. He begins July with a 6-4 record along with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. His outstanding strikeout rate of 30.9% matches his strikeout percentage last season for Milwaukee. He was better than his 4.06 ERA in the middle of the month suggested. We will still look for opportunities to back Peralta, but the buy-low value he presented against the Angels and Rangers appears to be gone -- unfortunately.
Good luck — Team Del Genio.
We were on the Brewers in that game on June 19th when they were in Los Angeles to play the Angels. We noted at the time that in his previous four starts, Peralta posted a 3.42 era and a 1.14 whip. Those results against the Reds appeared to be just a blip on the radar. His fastball is better than ever with it being rated at 127 from the Stuff+ measurements (with a 100 being considered an MLB average pitch). and his change-up and slider have been more precise this season. Milwaukee had won eight of their twelve games this season when Peralta was their starting pitcher and the oddsmakers installed them as the money line favorite at -110 or higher.
Milwaukee would win that game by a 2-0 score. Peralta only gave up three hits and walked two batters while striking out eight of the Angels hitters. The win improved his record to 5-4. He was probably pitching better than his 4.06 era would indicate. He had a 1.17 whip. The right-hander’s velocity was fine against the Angels, and he did get 16 whiffs.
We backed the Brewers again in Peralta’s next start at home against the Texas Rangers on June 24th. Milwaukee won the game, 6-3, yet Peralta did not get the decision. He gave up two earned runs in five innings despite only giving up four base hits. He struck out six batters.
We considered Peralta once again in his start on June 30th at home against the Chicago Cubs. Ultimately, we passed on Milwaukee given the price with oddsmakers installing the Brewers as a money line favorite in the -190 range. The Cubs were sending out Kyle Hendricks who had been pitching well in his previous two starts. Yet our decision to forego the Brewers did not have anything to do with a lack of confidence in Peralta. He delivered against Chicago by allowing only two hits and one earned run in seven innings, with Milwaukee winning the game by a 7-1 score. He struck out eight Cub hitters and walked only two.
In his last three starts since that bad effort against the Reds, Peralta has a 2-0 record with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP. He has 22 strikeouts in those 18 innings, and the Brewers have won all three games. He begins July with a 6-4 record along with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. His outstanding strikeout rate of 30.9% matches his strikeout percentage last season for Milwaukee. He was better than his 4.06 ERA in the middle of the month suggested. We will still look for opportunities to back Peralta, but the buy-low value he presented against the Angels and Rangers appears to be gone -- unfortunately.
Good luck — Team Del Genio.
