by Team Del Genio
Saturday, Nov 30, 2024The Miami Dolphins have developed the well-earned reputation of struggling when playing in cold weather, yet the oddsmaker only installed them as a field goal underdog in their Monday night game in the chilly temperatures in Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers on the last Thursday Night Football game in November.
The Dolphins hit rock bottom with their 30-27 loss at Buffalo earlier in the month lowered their record to 2-6 on the season. They had since won three games in a row to raise their record to 5-6 and keep their postseason hopes alive. Yet the Packers were the best team they had played since losing to the Bills. They followed that up with a win in Los Angeles against the Rams before returning home where they beat Las Vegas and then New England, 34-15, the previous week. The Dolphins had covered the point spread once in their last five games on the road after winning at home in their previous game. Against teams with a winning, they had covered the point spread just twice in their last eight games. In their last six games on the road against winning teams, they had covered the point spread only once.
Now Miami travels to Green Bay where it was going to be very cold. Temperatures were expected to drop into the 20s. The Dolphins had an 11-28 record in their franchise history when playing at 32 degrees or lower, and they are on a nine-game losing streak in those games. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had lost all four of his career starts when the temperature was under 40 degrees. The Dolphins had covered the point spread in only one of those four games, and they have been beaten by the point spread by an average of 18 points in those four games.
Yet it’s just not in cold weather where Miami with Tagovailoa has not played as well. In stand-alone games, the Dolphins had a 6-10 record with Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback while covering the point spread in just five of those sixteen games. When playing at night, Miami had a 5-8 record with Tagovailoa, covering the point spread in four of those thirteen games. When playing at night against a winning team with Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback, they had a 3-6 record with only three-point spread covers in those nine games. If those winning teams had a winning percentage of 60% or better, then the Dolphins are winless in those five-night games with Tagovailoa with only one point spread cover. Miami had covered the point spread in three of their eleven games when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had covered the point spread in four of their last eleven games on the road when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 42.5 to 49.
Sure enough, the Dolphins, bundled in their heavy jackets and crowding around their portal warmers, started slowly in this game. Green Bay went into halftime with a 24-3 lead. They later took a 30-11 lead midway late in the fourth quarter before Miami scored a late touchdown in a 30-17 loss.
The Dolphins offense did gain 375 yards, and Tagovailoa’s stat line was good. He completed 37 of 36 passes for 365 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. It’s hard to argue with that performance. Yet the Dolphins were still not competitive in these conditions. They made special teams mistakes. Their defense gave up 388 yards. They fumbled the ball twice. These miscues were not the fault of Tagovailoa.
Miami plays in cold weather in their final two games of the season in Cleveland against the Browns and then in New York against the Jets in their last game of the regular season. Tagovailoa’s now 0-5 record in games played below 40 degrees will be mentioned frequently. Yet it would probably be unfair to put the blame on him for that record given his performance in Green Bay against the Packers on the last Thursday night game of the month.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
The Dolphins hit rock bottom with their 30-27 loss at Buffalo earlier in the month lowered their record to 2-6 on the season. They had since won three games in a row to raise their record to 5-6 and keep their postseason hopes alive. Yet the Packers were the best team they had played since losing to the Bills. They followed that up with a win in Los Angeles against the Rams before returning home where they beat Las Vegas and then New England, 34-15, the previous week. The Dolphins had covered the point spread once in their last five games on the road after winning at home in their previous game. Against teams with a winning, they had covered the point spread just twice in their last eight games. In their last six games on the road against winning teams, they had covered the point spread only once.
Now Miami travels to Green Bay where it was going to be very cold. Temperatures were expected to drop into the 20s. The Dolphins had an 11-28 record in their franchise history when playing at 32 degrees or lower, and they are on a nine-game losing streak in those games. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had lost all four of his career starts when the temperature was under 40 degrees. The Dolphins had covered the point spread in only one of those four games, and they have been beaten by the point spread by an average of 18 points in those four games.
Yet it’s just not in cold weather where Miami with Tagovailoa has not played as well. In stand-alone games, the Dolphins had a 6-10 record with Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback while covering the point spread in just five of those sixteen games. When playing at night, Miami had a 5-8 record with Tagovailoa, covering the point spread in four of those thirteen games. When playing at night against a winning team with Tagovailoa as their starting quarterback, they had a 3-6 record with only three-point spread covers in those nine games. If those winning teams had a winning percentage of 60% or better, then the Dolphins are winless in those five-night games with Tagovailoa with only one point spread cover. Miami had covered the point spread in three of their eleven games when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog. They had covered the point spread in four of their last eleven games on the road when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 42.5 to 49.
Sure enough, the Dolphins, bundled in their heavy jackets and crowding around their portal warmers, started slowly in this game. Green Bay went into halftime with a 24-3 lead. They later took a 30-11 lead midway late in the fourth quarter before Miami scored a late touchdown in a 30-17 loss.
The Dolphins offense did gain 375 yards, and Tagovailoa’s stat line was good. He completed 37 of 36 passes for 365 yards with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. It’s hard to argue with that performance. Yet the Dolphins were still not competitive in these conditions. They made special teams mistakes. Their defense gave up 388 yards. They fumbled the ball twice. These miscues were not the fault of Tagovailoa.
Miami plays in cold weather in their final two games of the season in Cleveland against the Browns and then in New York against the Jets in their last game of the regular season. Tagovailoa’s now 0-5 record in games played below 40 degrees will be mentioned frequently. Yet it would probably be unfair to put the blame on him for that record given his performance in Green Bay against the Packers on the last Thursday night game of the month.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
