by Team Del Genio
Sunday, Jun 30, 2024Team Del Genio grew concerned with Kevin Gausman earlier this month.
The Toronto right-hander was trending in the wrong direction. He had lost several ticks on his fastball which has made that pitch less effective. His splitter was not moving as much either, and with the velocity discrepancy between this pitch and his fastball, hitters were teeing off on this pitch. Gausman lacks a reliable third pitch to generate whiffs, and that helps explain why his strikeout rate has plummeted. After peaking in 2020 with a 32.3% strikeout rate when pitching for San Francisco and striking out 31.1% of opposing hitters last year for the Blue Jays, Gausman was striking out only 23.8% of opposing hitters this season going into his start against the Boston Red Sox on June 19th. That was his lowest strikeout rate in six years.
At the time, some bettors may have looked to opposing hitters .327 batting average for the balls put into play against him and concluded he had been unlucky. We look at pitcher’s babip and compare it to the MLB average which tends to be in the low .290s. Yet we also compare a one-year babip to that pitcher’s career babip. Gausman always runs a high babip, his career batting average for the balls put into play against him is .316. Hitters were finding too many opportunities to tee off against him. His hard-hit rate allowed was 38.3% which is the highest in his last four seasons.
Overall, he had a 5-5 record with a 4.08 era and a 1.27 whip in fourteen starts going into that start against the Red Sox. Yet those statistics had been propped up with some outstanding results against some of the weakest lineups. He threw his first complete-game shutout two prior at Oakland. He threw 5 1/3 shutout innings earlier this season at Washington. He gave up only one run in starts against the Chicago White Sox and Detroit. Take away those four starts and Gausman’s era rose to a 5.92 mark.
Gausman gave up five runs (four earned) in 5/3 innings against Boston. He served up two home runs, and that game flew over the total that we took in that game.
He next pitched at Boston on June 25th. The Blue Jays won that game, yet they got little help from Gausman in that one. He gave up four runs (three earned) in six innings. He served up another two gopher balls.
Gausman had a tough assignment to end the month in a home date against the New York Yankees on June 30th. In an 8-1 loss, he gave up seven runs in only 4 1/3 innings. He gave up seven hits including another home run and walked five Yankee hitters.
Since raising our concerns about Gausman, he has a 7.88 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in his last three starts. He has walked nine batters in those 16 innings and given up five home runs. He begins July with a 6-7 record, a 4.75 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP. His strikeout rate of 22.8% is the lowest since 2018. Even more concerning, take away his four plum assignments against Oakland, Washington, Detroit, and the Chicago White Sox and his ERA rises to 6.40.
When Gausman is on the hill, we want to be considering overs or playing against the Blue Jays until he regains velocity on his four-seamer again.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
The Toronto right-hander was trending in the wrong direction. He had lost several ticks on his fastball which has made that pitch less effective. His splitter was not moving as much either, and with the velocity discrepancy between this pitch and his fastball, hitters were teeing off on this pitch. Gausman lacks a reliable third pitch to generate whiffs, and that helps explain why his strikeout rate has plummeted. After peaking in 2020 with a 32.3% strikeout rate when pitching for San Francisco and striking out 31.1% of opposing hitters last year for the Blue Jays, Gausman was striking out only 23.8% of opposing hitters this season going into his start against the Boston Red Sox on June 19th. That was his lowest strikeout rate in six years.
At the time, some bettors may have looked to opposing hitters .327 batting average for the balls put into play against him and concluded he had been unlucky. We look at pitcher’s babip and compare it to the MLB average which tends to be in the low .290s. Yet we also compare a one-year babip to that pitcher’s career babip. Gausman always runs a high babip, his career batting average for the balls put into play against him is .316. Hitters were finding too many opportunities to tee off against him. His hard-hit rate allowed was 38.3% which is the highest in his last four seasons.
Overall, he had a 5-5 record with a 4.08 era and a 1.27 whip in fourteen starts going into that start against the Red Sox. Yet those statistics had been propped up with some outstanding results against some of the weakest lineups. He threw his first complete-game shutout two prior at Oakland. He threw 5 1/3 shutout innings earlier this season at Washington. He gave up only one run in starts against the Chicago White Sox and Detroit. Take away those four starts and Gausman’s era rose to a 5.92 mark.
Gausman gave up five runs (four earned) in 5/3 innings against Boston. He served up two home runs, and that game flew over the total that we took in that game.
He next pitched at Boston on June 25th. The Blue Jays won that game, yet they got little help from Gausman in that one. He gave up four runs (three earned) in six innings. He served up another two gopher balls.
Gausman had a tough assignment to end the month in a home date against the New York Yankees on June 30th. In an 8-1 loss, he gave up seven runs in only 4 1/3 innings. He gave up seven hits including another home run and walked five Yankee hitters.
Since raising our concerns about Gausman, he has a 7.88 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP in his last three starts. He has walked nine batters in those 16 innings and given up five home runs. He begins July with a 6-7 record, a 4.75 ERA, and a 1.27 WHIP. His strikeout rate of 22.8% is the lowest since 2018. Even more concerning, take away his four plum assignments against Oakland, Washington, Detroit, and the Chicago White Sox and his ERA rises to 6.40.
When Gausman is on the hill, we want to be considering overs or playing against the Blue Jays until he regains velocity on his four-seamer again.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
