by Team Del Genio
Saturday, Nov 30, 2024The conventional wisdom regarding Jim Harbaugh’s arrival as the head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers is that he has transformed the Justin Herbert-led offense into a run-first attack. It is true that Harbaugh is asking less of Herbert so far this season. After playing in five games last year where he threw 40 or more passes, he has yet to do that this season. The Chargers had not played a game this season that had more than 44 combined points scored before their thrilling 34-27 victory against Cincinnati in week 11 on November 17th.
Yet the oddsmakers still installed the over/under for the Monday night “Harbaugh Bowl” against the Baltimore Ravens on November 25th in the high 40s, and it was then bet up into the 50s. It may look easy to take the under given the Chargers' commitment to run the football and play strong defense under head coach Jim Harbaugh, yet we concluded in taking the over that those assumptions may be faulty.
Herbert did not throw more than 27 times in his first four games. Yet remember that he was slowed by an ankle injury early in the season that kept him from playing in the preseason. Since their bye week after those first four games, Herbert had thrown the ball 32 or more times in four of his six games. In the shootout the previous week with the Bengals, Herbert completed 17 of 36 passes for 297 yards with two touchdown passes. He had also been more willing to tuck the ball and run lately. He rushed for 65 yards the previous week. In his previous four games, Herbert had run for 148 yards and averaged 7 yards per carry. His ankle seems better. The Chargers have scored 26 or more points in four straight games.
Harbaugh is known for pivoting his offensive game plan in big games. As the Michigan head coach, he would often flip the script with his run-first approach by passing the ball more in their annual showdowns with Ohio State or against Alabama in the college football playoff semifinals. Against a Ravens defense that was holding their opponents to 87 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry, Harbaugh may lean on his quarterback who he declared as already one of the best ever earlier in the week. Baltimore is allowing 312 passing yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt. A pass-heavy game plan made sense going into that game.
The Chargers scored a touchdown on their first drive and took a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter. The Ravens then got their offense going and went into halftime with a 14-13 lead with the game pace on track to finish over the number. Our over became in doubt when both teams only traded field goals in the third quarter. Yet Baltimore scored two touchdowns early in the fourth quarter to take a 30-16 lead. The Chargers scored a late touchdown to pull within seven points, securing our over with 53 combined points scored.
Herbert completed 21 of 36 passes for 218 yards. He added another 29 yards on the ground. That game was the fifth time in their last six games that the Chargers threw more passes than they ran the football. That is a stark change from their first five games when Los Angeles only had one game where they passed the ball more than they ran it.
The Chargers have played seven of their eleven games this season under the number. Yet they have played their last three games over the total. So while Harbaugh is not asking Herbert to carry the offense like he had been in the past, the commitment to run the football early in the season may had more to do with his injured ankle rather than Harbaugh wanting to run the 1980s offense he operated for the Chicago Bears with Mike Ditka as their head coach.
Bettors assuming the Chargers are a good team to play the under should consider the evolution of their play-calling.
Good luck - TDG.
Yet the oddsmakers still installed the over/under for the Monday night “Harbaugh Bowl” against the Baltimore Ravens on November 25th in the high 40s, and it was then bet up into the 50s. It may look easy to take the under given the Chargers' commitment to run the football and play strong defense under head coach Jim Harbaugh, yet we concluded in taking the over that those assumptions may be faulty.
Herbert did not throw more than 27 times in his first four games. Yet remember that he was slowed by an ankle injury early in the season that kept him from playing in the preseason. Since their bye week after those first four games, Herbert had thrown the ball 32 or more times in four of his six games. In the shootout the previous week with the Bengals, Herbert completed 17 of 36 passes for 297 yards with two touchdown passes. He had also been more willing to tuck the ball and run lately. He rushed for 65 yards the previous week. In his previous four games, Herbert had run for 148 yards and averaged 7 yards per carry. His ankle seems better. The Chargers have scored 26 or more points in four straight games.
Harbaugh is known for pivoting his offensive game plan in big games. As the Michigan head coach, he would often flip the script with his run-first approach by passing the ball more in their annual showdowns with Ohio State or against Alabama in the college football playoff semifinals. Against a Ravens defense that was holding their opponents to 87 rushing yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry, Harbaugh may lean on his quarterback who he declared as already one of the best ever earlier in the week. Baltimore is allowing 312 passing yards per game and 7.8 yards per attempt. A pass-heavy game plan made sense going into that game.
The Chargers scored a touchdown on their first drive and took a 10-0 lead early in the second quarter. The Ravens then got their offense going and went into halftime with a 14-13 lead with the game pace on track to finish over the number. Our over became in doubt when both teams only traded field goals in the third quarter. Yet Baltimore scored two touchdowns early in the fourth quarter to take a 30-16 lead. The Chargers scored a late touchdown to pull within seven points, securing our over with 53 combined points scored.
Herbert completed 21 of 36 passes for 218 yards. He added another 29 yards on the ground. That game was the fifth time in their last six games that the Chargers threw more passes than they ran the football. That is a stark change from their first five games when Los Angeles only had one game where they passed the ball more than they ran it.
The Chargers have played seven of their eleven games this season under the number. Yet they have played their last three games over the total. So while Harbaugh is not asking Herbert to carry the offense like he had been in the past, the commitment to run the football early in the season may had more to do with his injured ankle rather than Harbaugh wanting to run the 1980s offense he operated for the Chicago Bears with Mike Ditka as their head coach.
Bettors assuming the Chargers are a good team to play the under should consider the evolution of their play-calling.
Good luck - TDG.
