by Al McMordie
Wednesday, Aug 14, 2024Michigan's championship last season ended an era in NCAA Football -- one where winning a conference title mattered greatly. This season, the post-season will be expanded from four to 12 teams. No longer will it be hugely important to finish atop one's conference.
The conference champions will retain a significant advantage, as the five highest-ranked conference champs will qualify for the post-season. And the four highest-ranked will be seeded #1 through #4 and earn a first-round bye. But I have no doubt that we will often see a conference's #2 team hoisting the trophy.
Beyond the change to the playoff format, there was a shake-up in the major conferences. The Pac-12 Conference imploded (though Washington State and Oregon State remain), and its erstwhile members landed in the Big 10, Big 12 and ACC Conferences. Washington State and Oregon State will compete in football within the Mountain West Conference.
Although I don't think it's critical to win the Big 10 or SEC Conference, in order to compete for a national championship, I do think it's paramount to finish in the top two. And that leads me to my 2024 Futures Pick. I like the Oregon Ducks to win the title. Currently, the best odds are +800, at Bet365.
Last season -- Dan Lanning's 2nd in Eugene -- the Ducks went 11-1 in the regular season, and smashed Liberty, 45-6, in the Fiesta Bowl. Overall, the Ducks have gone 22-5 in Lanning's tenure as head coach.
The Ducks enter the 2024 season ranked as the #3 team in the Associated Press poll behind SEC member, Georgia, and fellow Big 10 member, Ohio State. The good news for the Ducks is that it will host the #2-ranked Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium, on October 12. And the only other ranked team on Oregon's schedule is #9 Michigan. That game will be played in Ann Arbor, on November 2. So, the Ducks could be favored in all 12 of their regular season games.
Oregon's offense will be led by Dillon Gabriel, who transferred from Oklahoma. Throw in perhaps the country's best group of receivers (including Texas A&M transfer, Evan Stewart), and an elite offensive line, and one can see why many are optimistic the Ducks can win their first championship. The Ducks' offense may not reach the lofty heights set by Bo Nix (44.2 ppg, 531 ypg) but it will still be potent.
On defense, Oregon's strength will be its defensive line's play against the rush. Last season, the Ducks ranked #10 in rush defense, but #22 in total defense. That illustrates Oregon's primary weakness -- pass defense. It ranked a measly #54 in that category in 2023, and will need to improve to win the title this season. I believe it will. Lanning has brought in a lot of talent via the transfer portal and the 2024 class. Among the new recruits are CB Jabbar Muhammad (ex-Oklahoma State), Kam Alexander (ex-UTSA), and Brandon Johnson (ex-Duke). Don't be surprised when the Ducks' pass defense takes a leap this season.
Certainly, teams like Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Alabama, and Mississippi will also be in the mix this season for a championship. But the odds on Georgia (+300) and Ohio State (+400) are too short for me (all odds courtesy of Bet365). With this new format, I really want to bet on a team with minimum odds of +700. Texas (+800), Alabama (+1200) and Ole Miss (+1400) do have odds north of +700, but they're also in the rugged SEC, and I also prefer to take a team which has an excellent shot to finish in the top two in its conference. Taken together, Oregon is our choice this season at 8-1 odds to win the title.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
The conference champions will retain a significant advantage, as the five highest-ranked conference champs will qualify for the post-season. And the four highest-ranked will be seeded #1 through #4 and earn a first-round bye. But I have no doubt that we will often see a conference's #2 team hoisting the trophy.
Beyond the change to the playoff format, there was a shake-up in the major conferences. The Pac-12 Conference imploded (though Washington State and Oregon State remain), and its erstwhile members landed in the Big 10, Big 12 and ACC Conferences. Washington State and Oregon State will compete in football within the Mountain West Conference.
Although I don't think it's critical to win the Big 10 or SEC Conference, in order to compete for a national championship, I do think it's paramount to finish in the top two. And that leads me to my 2024 Futures Pick. I like the Oregon Ducks to win the title. Currently, the best odds are +800, at Bet365.
Last season -- Dan Lanning's 2nd in Eugene -- the Ducks went 11-1 in the regular season, and smashed Liberty, 45-6, in the Fiesta Bowl. Overall, the Ducks have gone 22-5 in Lanning's tenure as head coach.
The Ducks enter the 2024 season ranked as the #3 team in the Associated Press poll behind SEC member, Georgia, and fellow Big 10 member, Ohio State. The good news for the Ducks is that it will host the #2-ranked Buckeyes at Autzen Stadium, on October 12. And the only other ranked team on Oregon's schedule is #9 Michigan. That game will be played in Ann Arbor, on November 2. So, the Ducks could be favored in all 12 of their regular season games.
Oregon's offense will be led by Dillon Gabriel, who transferred from Oklahoma. Throw in perhaps the country's best group of receivers (including Texas A&M transfer, Evan Stewart), and an elite offensive line, and one can see why many are optimistic the Ducks can win their first championship. The Ducks' offense may not reach the lofty heights set by Bo Nix (44.2 ppg, 531 ypg) but it will still be potent.
On defense, Oregon's strength will be its defensive line's play against the rush. Last season, the Ducks ranked #10 in rush defense, but #22 in total defense. That illustrates Oregon's primary weakness -- pass defense. It ranked a measly #54 in that category in 2023, and will need to improve to win the title this season. I believe it will. Lanning has brought in a lot of talent via the transfer portal and the 2024 class. Among the new recruits are CB Jabbar Muhammad (ex-Oklahoma State), Kam Alexander (ex-UTSA), and Brandon Johnson (ex-Duke). Don't be surprised when the Ducks' pass defense takes a leap this season.
Certainly, teams like Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Alabama, and Mississippi will also be in the mix this season for a championship. But the odds on Georgia (+300) and Ohio State (+400) are too short for me (all odds courtesy of Bet365). With this new format, I really want to bet on a team with minimum odds of +700. Texas (+800), Alabama (+1200) and Ole Miss (+1400) do have odds north of +700, but they're also in the rugged SEC, and I also prefer to take a team which has an excellent shot to finish in the top two in its conference. Taken together, Oregon is our choice this season at 8-1 odds to win the title.
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
