NCAA Football System of the Week

The Florida State Seminoles were ranked #10 in the Associated Press poll to start the season, but have started the season 0-3.  They lost in Dublin, Ireland, 24-21, as a 10.5-point favorite vs. Georgia Tech to kick off the season.  Then, Boston College upset them, 28-13, as a 16.5-point underdog.  And last week, FSU suffered its 3rd straight upset defeat when Memphis went into Tallahassee, and won, 20-12, as a 6.5-point dog.

This Saturday, Florida State will look to break into the win column with a victory against California, which is playing its first ACC Conference game.  The Bears are 3-0 this season, with wins over Cal Davis (31-13), Auburn (21-14) and San Diego State (31-10).

Florida State has been installed as a 2.5-point home favorite.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab the points with the 3-0 Bears vs. the 0-3 Seminoles.  But be careful.  The games that often look the easiest turn out to be anything but.  And that leads us to our NCAA Football System of the Week.  Not surprisingly, it is a contrarian system.  Since 1980, home teams on a 3-game (or worse) losing streak have gone 55-38 ATS in FBS games vs. foes on a 3-game (or better) win streak, if our home team wasn't getting more than 6 points.

Consider playing on the Florida State Seminoles minus the points.

Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie