2024 Breeders' Cup Preview

If there's one thing that's become evident when the pre-entries for the 2024 Breeders Cup -- to be held November 1 & 2 at Del Mar Race Track -- were announced, it's that this is finally the international event that many had perhaps envisioned 41 years ago when it began.  Friday and Saturday, there are a total of 80 international horses entered -- 20 more than the previous record last year.  And a record five continents -- Asia, Europe, Africa, and North and South America -- are represented by those 80 entrants.  The Europeans will be closely watched in the Turf (grass) races, but perhaps the biggest spotlight will shine on the Japanese runners this year -- 19 in all.  On the American side of things, there may not be a Cody's Wish this year (there likely will never be another fairy tale like that one) but there are plenty of other stories surrounding the best that the U.S.A. has to offer.  To that end, we present a preview of five of the Breeders Cup races:

   

Breeders Cup Juvenile (race 9 on Friday)

The Juvenile is the year's biggest showcase for the potential Kentucky Derby horses of the following Spring as it's typically contested at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt track.  Because a lot of trainers don't like to ship their young horses too far to compete when they're two years old, the Breeders Cup Juvenile tends to feature horses that have been racing on one coast or the other.  This year is no exception, as the East Coast 2YOs feature three undefeated runners in East Avenue, Chancer McPatrick, and Jonathan's Way facing off against three local contenders courtesy of Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.  You might think that those three -- Citizens Bull, Gaming, and Getaway Car -- would have a "home field advantage," but that may not be the case this year.  And it's interesting to note that in 2023, when this event was held at nearby Santa Anita just up the road in L.A., the California horses basically got shut out and didn't win a single race.  This year could be more of the same and in the case of the Juvenile, it appears that those three East Coast horses are just faster and have a decided advantage over the rest of the field.  In the past we've seen some big prices in the Juvenile, and for good reason as these are horses with the least amount of racing experience so upsets are common.  But our advice on this occasion is not to get too fancy and stick with likely favorites Chancer McPatrick and East Avenue (and possibly Jonathan's Way if you want a better price) on the win bets and multi-race wagers.  

   

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf (race 10 on Friday)

Here is the European two-year-old horses chance to shine.  This race -- contested at 1 mile on the grass -- usually sees about half of the runners coming from European countries (England, Ireland, and France mostly).  And in many cases, one of those horses beats the best American Juvenile turf runners and at very nice odds.  So it usually doesn't make sense to play one of the favorites in this race.  Give some of the Euros with the more unestablished trainers -- like Hugo Palmer's The Waco Kid -- a look at what could be a very good price.  The European Juveniles typically carry much more weight when they race overseas, and in the case of The Waco Kid, he will have only 122 pounds on his back in this race, vs. close to 130 when he ran in Britain.  There is also an intriguing undefeated Japanese invader named Santono Carnaval but it's probably best to avoid this runner at what will likely be lower odds.  He's a sprinter stretching out for the first time and there's no way to know if he's going to take to the Del Mar turf.  The American runner with the best chance is probably Chad Brown's undefeated colt, Zulu Kingdom.  If you have to bet a domestic horse in this race, Brown's 2YO is a standout but he will be a short price

   

Breeders Cup Turf Sprint (race 5 on Saturday)

This race is always a lot of fun and tends to be dominated by American runners who get to the lead as soon as the gate opens.  U.S. based trainer Wesley Ward has been a fixture with the Turf Sprint recently, winning it in 2021 and winning back-to-back Juvenile versions in 2020 and 2021.  So it's strange to see this race go off without a Ward horse in the starting gate this year.  But it's one of the only races on the two day menu with a clear-cut, odds-on favorite in Steve Asmussen's Cogburn.  The five-year-old has had just three races in 2024 but all three have been lights out and he's won them easily.  This race isn't always run at 5 furlongs but it is at Del Mar and that should increase Cogburn's chances as if he gets out of the gate cleanly and gets to the front, he has proven nearly impossible to run down.  But the race isn't without closers as well and two horses that should be running at Cogburn late are Big Invasion and local favorite Motorious who is a perfect 3 for 3 on this track at this distance.  But if you're looking to take a stand with a single in the multi-race wagers, then Cogburn is probably your best bet

   

Breeders Cup Classic (race 8 on Saturday)

In many ways, this will be a different Classic than we've seen in a long time.  First, there's the fact that for TV purposes, the Breeders Cup agreed to put the marquee event of the two days as the 8th race on Saturday with four additional Breeders Cup races after it.  It will be strange to have the biggest celebration of the day not near the end but that's television for you.  Then there is the amazing variety of runners who will be saddling up this year.  In addition to three extremely talented Japanese runners -- one who almost won the Kentucky Derby back in May -- there's a British star -- City of Troy -- who his very experienced trainer calls the best horse he's ever trained.  Then there's a horse who specializes in races at 1 1/2 miles (and longer) on the dirt and who has won his last six races by a combined total of almost 90 lengths.  Horses like this almost never try the Classic at 1 1/4 miles because it's just too short for them and the quality of early speed in this race usually presents a problem.  But William Cowan, the trainer of Next figures that this is the time to take a shot, and anyone who's interested in storylines for the Classic is glad he did.  But if you want to find a winner, you probably need to look at the three Japanese runners -- Derma Sotogake, Forever Young, and Ushba Tesoro.  While the American Thoroughbred line appears to be getting weaker with each season, the Japanese dirt horses are getting stronger and stronger to the point where they almost won the Derby (Forever Young) and finished second in this race last year (Derma Sotogake).  It's only a matter of time before they're beating us at our own game.  And that time could be now.
   
Breeders Cup Dirt Mile (race 12 on Saturday)
The Dirt Mile is one of the more interesting races in the two day Breeders Cup Menu.  Considered a kind of "baby Classic" the Dirt mile often gets some very talented entrants who would otherwise run in the Classic but for a variety of reasons (the length of the race, the field size, etc.) opt for the shorter one mile distance over the 1 1/4 miles.  Depending on the track, the Dirt Mile might be run around one turn, but in the case of Del Mar, it is a two turn race, and that can pose some problems for horses who specialize more in seven furlong sprints around one turn.  One of the most intriguing horses in this year's installment of the Dirt Mile is the Chilean Import, Mufasa.  A relative newcomer to American racing, he has looked ultra-impressive in his most recent races, both at seven furlongs -- in fact breaking the track record at Colonial Downs in one of those.  The seven furlong races may cause many people to dismiss Mufasa at the windows, but his races in Chile -- all at further distances -- indicate that he should have no problem with the mile or the two turns.  Leading jockey Iran Ortiz should be aboard for the ride.

Good luck, as always...
Al McMordie