by Al McMordie
Thursday, Mar 27, 2025Sports handicappers have many tools in their toolbox that they use to get an edge on the bookmakers. When I handicap the NBA, I like to look at things like margin of victory, points scored, home/road statistics, won/loss percentages, and so forth. Another thing I will often look at is the series history between the two teams, with a particular focus on which team won the previous meeting, and by how many points.
Tonight, we have a nice situation in the NBA. The Los Angeles Lakers will be in Chicago to face the Bulls, who just walloped L.A. at Staples Center five days ago, 146-115. And what made that loss even more remarkable was that the Lakers were favored by 10.5 points, yet lost by 31.
I consulted my trusty NBA Database (which was written up in ESPN Magazine on December 13, 2010), and researched how teams do when playing with revenge from such a big defeat earlier in the season. And here's what I found. Teams playing with revenge from a same-season loss by 30 or more points do quite well provided two other factors were present. First, our revenge-minded team need to be the favorite. And, second, our opponent needed to be off a SU/ATS win. In that situation, our revengers have gone 73-46-1 ATS since 1990.
Let's look deeper at our Chicago Bulls/Los Angeles Lakers match-up tonight. The Lakers played last night, so there's always a chance they might rest players. However, currently, both Luka Doncic and LeBron James are expected to suit up, and L.A. is a 4-point favorite at Circa Sportsbook. That's good, since our revenger does need to be the favorite. Next, we need the Bulls to be off a SU/ATS win. And, indeed, they are, as they defeated Denver, 129-119, in their previous game.
NBA System of the Week: Play on a favorite with revenge from a loss earlier in the season by 30 or more points, if its opponent is off a SU/ATS win.
Tonight's play: Los Angeles Lakers -4
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
Tonight, we have a nice situation in the NBA. The Los Angeles Lakers will be in Chicago to face the Bulls, who just walloped L.A. at Staples Center five days ago, 146-115. And what made that loss even more remarkable was that the Lakers were favored by 10.5 points, yet lost by 31.
I consulted my trusty NBA Database (which was written up in ESPN Magazine on December 13, 2010), and researched how teams do when playing with revenge from such a big defeat earlier in the season. And here's what I found. Teams playing with revenge from a same-season loss by 30 or more points do quite well provided two other factors were present. First, our revenge-minded team need to be the favorite. And, second, our opponent needed to be off a SU/ATS win. In that situation, our revengers have gone 73-46-1 ATS since 1990.
Let's look deeper at our Chicago Bulls/Los Angeles Lakers match-up tonight. The Lakers played last night, so there's always a chance they might rest players. However, currently, both Luka Doncic and LeBron James are expected to suit up, and L.A. is a 4-point favorite at Circa Sportsbook. That's good, since our revenger does need to be the favorite. Next, we need the Bulls to be off a SU/ATS win. And, indeed, they are, as they defeated Denver, 129-119, in their previous game.
NBA System of the Week: Play on a favorite with revenge from a loss earlier in the season by 30 or more points, if its opponent is off a SU/ATS win.
Tonight's play: Los Angeles Lakers -4
Good luck, as always,
Al McMordie
