MLS Cup Specials 2024

The MLS Playoffs are here with the 1st Round kicking off on Friday, October 25, 2024. Atlanta defeated Montreal in penalties after a 2-2 draw in the Wild Card to earn the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference while Vancouver defeated Portland 5-0 in the Wild Card to earn the 8th seed in the Western Conference. The 1st Round of the playoffs will start on Friday with it being a best 2 out of 3 series, each team getting 1 home match and if a 3rd match is needed to decide who advances, the higher seed would have the home advantage in that 3rd match. The Conference Semifinals, the Conference Finals, and the MLS Cup Finals will all be a single match knockout round with the higher seed getting the home advantage. Now that the MLS Playoffs are finally here, it is time to see what value lies with the side markets for this competition. 

Inter Miami -175: Inter Miami currently sits at -175 to reach the MLS Cup Final and they have been the best team in the league all season. They won the Supporters’ Shield this season as they finished with a 22-8-4 record, giving them 74 points total which was 8 more points than the 2nd place team. They also had the 2nd best goal differential this season at +30, scoring 79 goals in their 34 matches and allowing 49 goals. They were 2nd for GD but they were the highest scoring team in the MLS this season with 79 goals, scoring 7 more than the 2nd place team. The only real threat to them in the Eastern Conference this season would be the Columbus Crew who have also been very dominant over the last year and are the defending champions from last season. Columbus knocked Miami out of the Leagues Cup earlier this season, but that is also their only win against Miami in their last 6 meetings. They have no wins against Miami in their last 5 straight MLS matches and Miami did not make the playoffs last season so it was not a problem they had to deal with. Inter Miami is hungry to win the MLS Cup this season so Messi can add that to his long list of accomplishments and the only threatening team is a team that they have not had much trouble with in recent meetings. Inter Miami is the best team in the Eastern Conference by far so there is value at this price for them to reach the Final.

Los Angeles FC +275: LAFC currently sits at +275 to reach the MLS Cup Final and they are actually the number 1 seed in the Western Conference. They finished the regular season in 3rd place in the overall table as well. They were 19-7-8 this season which gave them 64 points and they had a +20 goal differential which was the 3rd best in the league. They scored 63 goals in their 34 matches and allowed 43 goals in those. LAFC has been the dominant club in the MLS over the last few seasons and even with their squad changing quite a bit for this year, they have proved themselves again in the Western Conference. They did not win the MLS Cup last season, but they still made it to the Final which they lost to Columbus. The championship pedigree is there and they have been in great form down the final stretch of the regular season, getting themselves ready for this playoff push. They have been very balanced recently with both their attack and their defense which makes them one of the most complete teams coming out of the West right now. They also have a nice pathway in the first 2 rounds as they are going to be facing some teams that have struggled a lot against them in recent meetings. There are not many teams that can beat this LAFC team with the form they have been in recently and they are going to have home advantage throughout the entire Western side of the bracket which will be a big boost for them as well. There is some good value in LAFC to reach the Final at this price as they have a very good chance of getting back there again. 

New York City FC +120: New York City FC is currently sitting at +120 to get out of the 1st Round against Cincinnati. NYCFC finished the season as the 6th seed in the Eastern Conference, going 14-8-12 with 50 points while Cincinnati is the 3rd seed at 18-5-11 with 59 points. Cincinnati had a better goal differential this season by 5 goals, but the 2 were very similar as NYCFC scored 54 goals and allowed 49 goals while Cincinnati scored 58 goals and allowed 48 goals. Cincinnati does not have a lot of momentum coming into this series either as they have not been in good form to end the season and their defense specifically has been awful. NYCFC has been the complete opposite, winning 3 of their last 4 matches to end the regular season, and they had to work to secure their spot in the final weeks as well. Their defense has not been great, but their attack will be able to match Cincinnati in this series. NYCFC has struggled a lot against Cincinnati in recent meetings, but NYCFC did win the last meeting 3-2 just a few weeks ago and they have been the team in better form recently. Cincinnati has declined a lot from last season and defense was their bread and butter last year, something that has not been the case this season. With the way NYCFC has been playing leading up to these playoffs, they have some value at this price to knock out Cincinnati. 

Minnesota United +125: Minnesota United is currently sitting at +125 to get out of this 1st Round against Real Salt Lake. Minnesota is the 6th seed in the Western Conference, going 15-7-12 with 52 points while Real Salt Lake is the 3rd seed at 16-11-7 with 59 points. Salt Lake finished with the better goal differential by 8 goals as they had a stronger attack this season, scoring 65 goals compared to Minnesota scoring 58 goals, but their defense was not any better by much as they allowed 48 goals to Minnesota’s 49. Minnesota was a very strong team to start the season as well, but they were derailed midseason by injuries and international competitions which took much needed players away from their squad, and it showed in their performances. They were able to get back in great form down the final stretch of the regular season though and they have been playing like one of the better teams in the league recently. They ended the season winning 4 of their last 5 matches with no losses in that span and their attack scored 2+ goals in 3 of those 5 matches. Their defense has seen real improvement though, allowing just 1 goal in their last 5 matches. Salt Lake has also been in good form recently, but they ended the season with 3 draws in their last 5 matches and they have also drawn their last 4 straight meetings with Minnesota. Draws were a big problem for Real Salt Lake this season as they left a lot of points on the table and were the only Western Conference team to make the bracket with double digit draws on the season. These will come back to bite them against a good defensive team like Minnesota as draws will be settled by penalties in this 1st round and that is when anything can happen. Minnesota has been the team in better form recently with a much better defense and that is the key factor here which gives Minnesota some good value to get out of this 1st Round and knock out Real Salt Lake. 

Charlotte FC +150: Charlotte is currently sitting at +150 to get out of this 1st Round against Orlando City. Charlotte is the 5th seed in the Eastern Conference, going 14-9-11 with 51 points while Orlando City is the 4th seed at 15-7-12 with 52 points. Orlando only finished with 1 more point than Charlotte had and they both had goal differentials of +9. Orlando has had the much better attack all season as they scored 59 goals compared to Charlotte’s 46 goals, but Orlando was not good on defense as they allowed 50 goals this season while Charlotte had the best defense in the Eastern Conference, only allowing 37 goals in their 34 matches. That defense is going to be key in this series and they have also been in great form down the final stretch as they still needed to earn their spot in the final weeks. They ended the regular season winning their last 3 straight as well as 4 of their last 5 matches with no losses in that span, and they also kept 3 clean sheets in those 5 matches as well, allowing none in their final 2 matches. Their attack has been on fire in that span as well so they will be able to put up a fight against this Orlando defense that has conceded a lot. Orlando has also been in good form to end the season, but they have 2 losses in their last 5 matches and they have not kept a clean sheet in any of those either. Their attack has been very good, but they will struggle more against a better Charlotte defense while also struggling to keep Charlotte out. Orlando actually won the last meeting between these two just a few weeks ago, winning 2-0 at home, but that is also their only win over Charlotte in their last 5 meetings. Charlotte has been in better form to end the season and they have also been the much better team on defense all year which gives them some value at this price to knock Orlando out of the playoffs.