UEFA Conference League 2024/25 Season (League Phase)

The UEFA Conference League is set to kick off for the season with the start of the League Phase on Wednesday, October 2. This is only the 4th edition of the competition as it was first introduced in the 2021/22 season, but there have already been some big changes to the format due to the changes in both Champions League and Europa League. Olympiacos is the current champion of the competition, but that win earned them a spot in Europa League so there will be a new champion this season. This is also going to be the first year of the competition that no new teams can drop down from Europa League so the winner of this competition this season has to come from this field of clubs as there will be no new clubs added later on. The group stage is no more as well, replaced with a League Phase consisting of 36 teams. The top 8 will move on to the Round of 16 while the 9-24 spots of the League Phase will be seeded and play each other in a play-off style round with a home leg for each to decide who will advance to the Round of 16. 25-36 will be eliminated from the competition. Every team will play 6 matches in the League Phase, 3 home as well as 3 away, and no teams will play the same twice. With that in mind, it is time to see who has the best chance of topping all 36 teams with the best record in the League Phase.

Chelsea +250: Chelsea is coming into the League Phase of this competition as the team with the best chance to win according to the oddsmakers. Chelsea is also the favorite to win the whole competition this season and they do have the best squad of all the teams. Their quality and depth is unmatched and that will make it easier for them early on in this competition to do well as they are juggling early season matches in the Premier League as well. They are still finding their way this season, but they have improved a lot with their new manager and are already threatening in their own domestic league, making them the best team in this competition right now as they play in the strongest league. They also have a very favorable path in the League Phase with a lot of their matches coming against much weaker teams that should not give them any trouble. They have played well away from home in the Premier League as well, so away performance will not be an issue against these weaker teams, and they also have a very potent attack that can bail them out of matches if their defense is not at its best. Their toughest match in the League Phase will be an away match against Panathinaikos, but they could still get points from that match whether it be a win or draw. Every other match on their schedule is winnable as well, so there is a very good chance that Chelsea is sitting at 15+ points after their 6 matches of the League Phase and that would be a very tough performance to beat for any other team. There is a lot of value in Chelsea at this price to win the League Phase. 

Real Betis +450: Real Betis is coming into the League Phase of this competition as the team with the next best chance to win according to the oddsmakers. Real Betis has a very good squad that is one of the better teams in this competition. They have been playing much better in their own domestic league as well, so they will continue to improve as the season goes on. They have already impressed in this competition in their qualifying matches, winning 5-0 on aggregate and winning both legs against Kryvbas. Real Betis has struggled away from home in their own domestic league though, so that could be an issue in this competition as they do play their best at home. They have a very favorable schedule in the League Phase that makes them a contender to finish atop the field. Their toughest match in the League Phase is their match against Kobenhavn, the match is at home which will help Real Betis a lot, but it is by no means an easy 3 points either. They do not have a lot of difficult away matches so that will help a lot as they are going to be at their best early on in this competition when the opponents are weaker, but they are still not a sound away team so anything could happen in those matches. They are probably the best team to give Chelsea a competition for 1st place in the League Phase, but there is more liability with their ability away from home, leaving Chelsea as the best choice still. There is some value in Real Betis at this price though as there is a good chance they will finish in 2nd behind Chelsea. 

Fiorentina +500: Fiorentina is coming into the League Phase of this competition as the team with the next best chance to win according to the oddsmakers. Fiorentina has a lot of experience in this competition as they lost in the Final last season and the season prior. They know how to make deep runs and conserve their squad as they get deeper into the competition, but that is not going to help them in this League Phase with the style of their play. They have not been in good form to start the new season, they made some improvements with their squad but the results have not been coming in. They are not losing many matches, but they are not winning many matches either, and playing out all of those draws will hurt them in this League Phase where wins are needed for points. In a field of 36 teams, drawing all 6 matches is not going to get a team through to the next round so Fiorentina will have to push for wins which is something they have been struggling to find. Their good defensive play can only take them so far and even if they get the points to advance, they will not be much of a threat to finish at the top of the League Phase. Their defensive tendencies will also hurt them in the League Phase even if they win a lot of matches and end up near the top as they will not have the goal differential with slim wins to beat out teams who have the same points but much stronger attacks. Goals are going to be important to break ties in this new League Phase format and that is just not the strength of this Fiorentina side. There is not a lot of value in Fiorentina to win the League Phase at this price.

There are plenty of good teams from smaller leagues in this competition and some of them are going to make some surprising deep runs in this tournament, but the League Phase is not where these smaller clubs are going to excel. The League Phase is designed more for the stronger teams to dominate so the bigger clubs that play in stronger leagues are going to benefit more from this new format. Realistically, there are only 2 teams that have the squad strength and squad depth to finish perfect or with 5+ wins, those 2 clubs being Chelsea and Real Betis. Chelsea at +250 and Real Betis at +450 both have some great value to win the League Phase with Chelsea being the better option. They are the two strongest teams in the competition this season, but they also have very favorable paths in the League Phase. If they manage to finish with the same number of points, Chelsea is still the better option as they have the stronger attack which will help out their goal differential more. Chelsea at +250 and Real Betis at +450 to win the League Phase of the Conference League.