The Coppa Italia Round of 16 is approaching with the first matches starting on Tuesday, December 3. There are a lot of quality teams left in the final 16 with a lot of rich history in this competition, but there are also quite a few teams that do not have the quality or depth to go the distance. With the Round of 16 just around the corner now, it is time to see who has the best chance at lifting the trophy this year.
To Win Outright
Inter Milan +200: Inter Milan is the team with the best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Inter Milan has been in great form entering December, but they are currently sitting 3rd place in the Serie A table. The league title is always the 1st priority for this club followed by Champions League and since Inter Milan is not dominating the league right out of the gate like they have in the past, that could take a toll on them in this competition. They are playing Udinese in this round and it will be their 1st round in the competition as they had byes until now, but they are also on the harder side of the bracket by far. The next round would see them play the winner of Lazio/Napoli and that will be no easy match, especially if it is Napoli who they play against as Napoli is currently leading the league and has no other competitions to focus on either. The new Champions League format also has them playing 2 extra matches which can take a toll on them, so between that and the closer race at the top of the league now, they are not going to be so focused on the Coppa Italia. They have one of the better attacks in the league this season, but there are some very good defenses in the league right now that can match them and Inter has already struggled in a few of their matches this season against top clubs in the league. Inter is tied for 2nd on the all-time list with 9 Coppa Italias and they have won 2 in the last 3 years as well, but they are not the defending champions. Those are also the only 2 they have won in the last 13 years so they have not been that dominant in this competition over the last decade and they are on the harder side of the bracket as well. There could be some value in Inter at a better price, but right now as the current favorite there is no real value with all things considered.
Juventus +350: Juventus is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Juventus has not been in the best form entering December, but they are currently sitting in 6th place of the league table and they are the only team in Serie A that does not have a loss this season. They have the best defense in the league with only 7 goals allowed in their 13 league matches and they have been a very tough team to beat all year in all competitions. They have struggled in the league in recent years, but their biggest focus this season will be on Champions League as that is a competition they missed last season. This is also a competition they are usually focused on as they are the defending champions from last year, but they have also had the most success in the competitions history. Juventus has won 15 Coppa Italias, winning 2 in the last 4 years, and they have also won 6 in the last 10 years. They are playing Cagliari in the Round of 16 after getting byes until now, but they have also been dropped on the easier side of the bracket. They would have to play the winner of Fiorentina/Empoli in the next round which will not cause too many problems for them, and the only other teams that could really challenge them before the final would be Bologna and Atalanta. Atalanta could be a tricky team for them, but it is still better than the teams they could see on the other side of the bracket, and Bologna is just a shell of the team they were last season as well. Juventus is always a true threat to win this competition and at this price with them not being the favorite either, there is some good value in Juventus here.
AC Milan +600: AC Milan is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. AC Milan has been in great form entering December, but they are currently sitting in 7th place in the league table and have still been very inconsistent this season. AC Milan is the kind of team that is always a bridesmaid and never a bride, whether it be in Serie A, Champions League, or this competition, they always find a way to do well and just come up short. They have won 5 Coppa Italias in their club history, but that only puts them tied for 7th place on the all-time list. They have not had any recent success either with their last win coming in 2003. They are playing against Sassuolo in the Round of 16, but they are also on the much harder side of the bracket with teams like Roma, Lazio, Napoli, and Inter Milan who they have struggled with a lot in recent years. AC Milan has quality in their squad, but they have been too inconsistent for years and always come up short in these competitions. They are the kind of team that, until they prove they can win, there is no real value in taking them to lift a trophy.
Napoli +600: Napoli is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Napoli has been in great form entering December as they currently sit atop the Serie A table. They are 9-2-2 this season and they have the 2nd best defense in the league with just 9 goals allowed in 13 matches. Antonio Conte is in his 1st season as the manager, but already he has flipped this team on its head. Conte has them headed in the right direction and he is also a proven manager in Serie A from his days at Inter Milan. This is actually a competition that he never won in his tenure at Inter Milan, but this is the perfect season for him to go for it since Napoli is not in any European competitions and has nothing else to worry about except the league. Napoli has to play Lazio in the Round of 16, but they actually played in the last round as well so they will be ready for this match. They are on the stronger side of the bracket and it will not be easy for them to make the final, but they already have wins against AC Milan and Roma this season as well as a draw with Inter Milan so there is nobody on their side of the bracket who they will be afraid of. Napoli has a lot of quality in their squad and Conte has them playing with a lot more confidence this season after their old manager left them. With no other competitions to focus on this season besides the league, and the fact that Conte never won the Coppa Italia in his tenure at Inter Milan, this will certainly be a competition that Napoli is focused on winning. There is some nice value here in Napoli to lift the trophy as a dark horse.
Atalanta +1200: Atalanta is the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy this season according to the oddsmakers. Atalanta has been in great form entering December as they currently sit in 2nd place of the league table. They have been playing well in Champions League too, but right now they are in the title race for Serie A and that is something that does not happen often for them. As long as they are near the top of the table, they will be focused on the league to try and win their 1st ever Serie A Title since they have never done so. They are also playing well in Champions League and were the Europa League champions last season so Champions League is also going to be high on their list of priorities. With Atalanta being more focused on those 2 bigger competitions, this is a competition they could see themselves fizzle out in, especially since they do not have a good history in the competition either. The only Coppa Italia that Atalanta has ever won came back in 1963, over 60 years ago. They have been the runners up 5 times which includes last season and twice in the last 4 years, but they always come up short. Atalanta has a lot of quality on their side, but this is not going to be a competition they are fully focused on and they do not have the depth to make a deep run here with more important competitions to worry about. They have come close to winning the Coppa Italia in recent years, but this is not going to be one of those seasons. There is no real value in Atalanta to win this competition with the other ones taking focus away.
Recommendation
This competition has been very straightforward over the last few seasons as it has generally been dominated by a handful of teams with a few exceptions here and there. It is usually the same group of teams that are always a threat in this competition, but only 1 club can win it all and there are external factors that affect each team's focus and motivation. This season, Juventus at +350 has the best value for a team to lift the trophy as they are the most dominant club in the competition and have yet to lose a match this season making them a very difficult out in competitions like this where a team must advance. Napoli at +600 is also a great dark horse though since the motivation is going to be there with the new manager and they do not have any other competitions to play in that will take their focus away, allowing them to put out the best lineup for these matches. Juventus at +350 and Napoli at +600 are the 2 best options for teams to lift the Coppa Italia this season, and it is possible that both of these clubs face each other in the Final due to the bracket.