by Matt Fargo
Friday, Aug 30, 2024
2024 NFC East Overview and Betting Preview
Regular Season Win Totals and NFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner -125 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,400
Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Over -145 Under +120 ~ NFC East Winner +170 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,900
Washington Commanders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner +900 ~ Super Bowl Winner +12,000
New York Giants: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135 ~ NFC East Winner +2,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000
Coaching Changes
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera Out ~ Dan Quinn In
Team Previews
Philadelphia Eagles: 11-7 ~ 4-2 NFC East ~ 7-9-2 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/U
Finished 2nd in the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 21
Notable Additions: QB Kenny Pickett, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DeVante Parker, WR Parris Campbell, G Matt Hennessy, NT P.J. Mustipher, OLB Bryce Huff, LB Devin White, LB Oren Burks, LB Zack Baun, CB/S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
Notable Losses: QB Marcus Mariota, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, G Sua Opeta, C Jason Kelce, DE Haason Reddick, DT Fletcher Cox, LB Nicholas Morrow, LB Zach Cunningham, LB Shaq Leonard, S Kevin Byard, S Justin Evans
Notable Draft Selections: CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB/S Cooper DeJean, DE Jalyx Hunt, RB Will Shipley, WR Ainias Smith, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
Philadelphia had two five-game winning streaks to start last season wrapped around a loss to the Jets on the road to open 10-1 and it was looking well on its way to another Super Bowl run. Then all of a sudden, the Eagles forgot how to score as they put up fewer than 20 points in five of their final seven games including a season-low nine points in their Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers. What was hidden in that offensive run was that the defense was even worse as Philadelphia allowed 31 ppg over their final eight games. It was a stunning implosion and one that many thought would cost head coach Nick Sirianni his job yet he escaped but he is on the hot seat despite nearly winning the Super Bowl just two years ago. A lot of it is rumored that there is a rift between him and quarterback Jalen Hurts but it is something they have to work around to make this work. The Eagles did a pretty big overhaul on both sides of the ball as on offense, they signed running back Saquon Barkley to give them the dynamic player they could not find and recently traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson so they should be back in line with their 2022 numbers. The defense regressed by 70 ypg and 7 ppg from 2022 and Philadelphia brought in a number of new faces across all levels to shore this unit up. The Eagles let seven significant contributors go and brought in more younger talent and nailed two draft picks to bolster their secondary. The biggest move could be hiring Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator.
The Eagles come in as the favorite to win the NFC East and the number is similar to that of last season but their NFC and Super Bowl odds have nearly doubled as they came into 2023 at +800 and dropped all the way to +450 prior to their implosion. The win total is one fewer than last season, which they missed the over by a half-game, and the drop in win total correlates with the increase in odds and based on the schedule and all of the upgrades, there is some value in betting Philadelphia across the board but that is not likely where our money is going as there are teams below them with higher odds that could have an easier path. Crossover games against Green Bay and Baltimore away from home could determine their over/under result.
Dallas Cowboys: 12-6 ~ 5-1 NFC East ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 10-7-1 O/U
Won the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 12
Notable Additions: RB Ezekiel Elliott, LB Eric Kendricks
Notable Losses: RB Tony Pollard, WR Michael Gallup, OT Tyron Smith, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Dante Fowler, DT Johnathan Hankins, LB Leighton Vander Esch, CB Stephon Gilmore, S Jayron Kearse
Notable Draft Selections: OT Tyler Guyton, DE Marshawn Kneeland, G Cooper Beebe, LB Marist Liufau
Dallas has won the NFC East five of the last 10 seasons but was unable to get past the Divisional Round three times while losing in the Wild Card Round twice and throw in another Divisional Round loss in 2022 as a Wild Card team, it has been a decade of disappointment. Dallas won its last Super Bowl in 1995 and in 13 playoff appearances since then, the Cowboys have not even made it to the NFC Championship so why they get so much attention and public backing is mind-boggling. Here they are again with high expectations in a conference that is wide open with arguably six teams that can win the NFC with Dallas in that mix. Since 2015, they have been no higher than +1,500 to win the NFC and no other team can stake that claim over the last nine years yet there have been six different teams representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Enough about the Dallas futility as it again has talent to make a run that many fans have not been able to witness. Quarterback Dak Prescott is usually the scapegoat and will likely be again but other than CeeDee Lamb, the offense is not very good. There is no reliable No. 2 receiver, the running game is going to be bad and the offensive line lost two significant starters. Running back Tony Pollard is off to Tennessee so they resigned Ezekiel Elliott to go along with Rico Dowdle. The defense was No. 23 in EPA and they did not do much to upgrade as the pass rush will still be solid but the back end needs help, especially with DaRon Bland out a while.
Money will be pouring in on the Cowboys as is the case every year and that will not be including a single cent from this end, at least to start. There will be that one season where Dallas eventually wins the Super Bowl and we will miss it but continuing to chase a so-called contender every season has cost a lot of people a lot of money. Detroit, San Francisco and Houston are the three crossover games besides playing the NFC South and AFC North so this schedule is not easy and there is value on the under at plus money. The bet could be for Dallas to make the playoffs which DraftKings has at -210 but it is a wait and see as the first seven games present a challenge and we could see the number drop should they have some early struggles.
Washington Commanders: 4-13 ~ 0-6 NFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 19
Notable Additions: QB Marcus Mariota, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Zach Ertz, G Nick Allegretti, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Dante Fowler, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Frankie Luvu, CB Michael Davis, S Jeremy Chinn, K Brandon McManus
Notable Losses: QB Jayden Daniels, DT Johnny Newton, CB Mike Sainristill, TE Ben Sinnott, OT Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey, LB Jordan Magee
Notable Draft Selections: QB Jacoby Brissett, QB Sam Howell, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, OT Charles Leno, G Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, DE Casey Toohill, DE James Smith-Williams, LB Cody Baron, CB Kendall Fuller, S Kamren Curl, K Joey Slye
Washington has won the NFC East only three times since the turn of the century, two of those with nine or fewer wins including one with a losing record. They have not had a double-digit winning season since 2012 while having just three 10-win seasons since 1992 after having done so in eight of their previous nine seasons from 1983-1991. This is the epitome of below average and the Commanders are once again going through a rebuild but this one seems a little different. Last season, Washington opened last season 2-0 and while no one was expecting any sort of positive run, it went south quickly as the Commanders lost 13 of their last 15 games with the two wins coming against Atlanta and New England. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. He is being compared to Robert Griffin III but with a higher ceiling and to help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. The Commanders regressed considerably on defense and finished dead last in EPA while allowing 10 more ppg and 85 more ypg than it did in 2022. They did upgrade but far from enough.
Could Washington be the Houston of last season, bringing in the No. 2 draft pick to take them to the playoffs? This is unlikely in this division but the Commanders will be better after getting outgained in 13 of 17 games last season. Despite only four wins last season, the win total of 6.5 is the same as last year which came after an eight-win season in 2022 so the oddsmakers are expecting improvements. The schedule definitely helps as Washington has nine home games, it has four winnable road games and its three crossover games are against Arizona, Chicago and Tennessee. All in, there are 11 swing games including seven of the first nine so a 5-4 start a possible and there are two more wins the rest of the way so the over is the play.
New York Giants: 6-11 ~ 3-3 NFC East ~ 8-8-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 6
Notable Additions: QB Drew Lock, RB Devin Singletary, WR Isaiah McKenzie, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan, G Aaron Stinnie, DE Brian Burns, S Jalen Mills
Notable Losses: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Parris Campbell, TE Darren Waller, DT A’Shawn Robinson, OLB Isaiah Simmons, S Xavier McKinney
Notable Draft Selections: WR Malik Nabers, S Tyler Nubin, CB Andru Phillips, TE Theo Johnson
No team has won the NFC East in consecutive years since 2004, the longest streak in NFL history but the Giants have not been part of the musical chairs since their last division title in 2011. New York made a surprising playoff run in 2022, if you can call a run one playoff victory, and it hoped to build off of that heading into last season but there was some early foreshadowing after a 40-0 season opening loss at home against Dallas. Their first four losses were by more than two touchdowns and while they got some late season success from backup quarterback Tommy DeVito, it was a disaster of a season for the Giants. Many are calling this the year it has to happen for quarterback Daniel Jones and head coach Brian Daboll but this is just hard to foresee. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball. Jones has shown some positive things but he looks too uncomfortable a majority of the time and he is coming off that torn ACL while his preseason work has been hard to watch at times. The loss of Saquon Barkley is going to hurt and they did hardly anything to improve one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The defense has regressed each of the last five seasons and not much was invested in improving. They do have a formidable defensive line as they got Brian Burns from Carolina to line up with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence but there are holes elsewhere.
While we like the Washington over at 6.5, we love the Giants under at the same number even with a little added juice to it. New York was on pace to have one of the worst records in the NFL last season but closing 4-3 over the last seven games in a stretch that meant nothing inflated their overall record to 6-11 and that hurts going into this season. New York has to face the No. 6 schedule that is loaded early on and this season could be over quickly. The Giants get Indianapolis, Minnesota and Seattle in their three crossover games and none of those are easy despite the first two being at home. They have gone 2-9 to the under over the last 11 seasons, finishing with six or fewer wins in eight of those and we do not see that changing again this year.
Regular Season Win Totals and NFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)
Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner -125 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,400
Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Over -145 Under +120 ~ NFC East Winner +170 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,900
Washington Commanders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner +900 ~ Super Bowl Winner +12,000
New York Giants: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135 ~ NFC East Winner +2,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000
Coaching Changes
Washington Commanders: Ron Rivera Out ~ Dan Quinn In
Team Previews
Philadelphia Eagles: 11-7 ~ 4-2 NFC East ~ 7-9-2 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/U
Finished 2nd in the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 21
Notable Additions: QB Kenny Pickett, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DeVante Parker, WR Parris Campbell, G Matt Hennessy, NT P.J. Mustipher, OLB Bryce Huff, LB Devin White, LB Oren Burks, LB Zack Baun, CB/S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
Notable Losses: QB Marcus Mariota, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, G Sua Opeta, C Jason Kelce, DE Haason Reddick, DT Fletcher Cox, LB Nicholas Morrow, LB Zach Cunningham, LB Shaq Leonard, S Kevin Byard, S Justin Evans
Notable Draft Selections: CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB/S Cooper DeJean, DE Jalyx Hunt, RB Will Shipley, WR Ainias Smith, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.
Philadelphia had two five-game winning streaks to start last season wrapped around a loss to the Jets on the road to open 10-1 and it was looking well on its way to another Super Bowl run. Then all of a sudden, the Eagles forgot how to score as they put up fewer than 20 points in five of their final seven games including a season-low nine points in their Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers. What was hidden in that offensive run was that the defense was even worse as Philadelphia allowed 31 ppg over their final eight games. It was a stunning implosion and one that many thought would cost head coach Nick Sirianni his job yet he escaped but he is on the hot seat despite nearly winning the Super Bowl just two years ago. A lot of it is rumored that there is a rift between him and quarterback Jalen Hurts but it is something they have to work around to make this work. The Eagles did a pretty big overhaul on both sides of the ball as on offense, they signed running back Saquon Barkley to give them the dynamic player they could not find and recently traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson so they should be back in line with their 2022 numbers. The defense regressed by 70 ypg and 7 ppg from 2022 and Philadelphia brought in a number of new faces across all levels to shore this unit up. The Eagles let seven significant contributors go and brought in more younger talent and nailed two draft picks to bolster their secondary. The biggest move could be hiring Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator.
The Eagles come in as the favorite to win the NFC East and the number is similar to that of last season but their NFC and Super Bowl odds have nearly doubled as they came into 2023 at +800 and dropped all the way to +450 prior to their implosion. The win total is one fewer than last season, which they missed the over by a half-game, and the drop in win total correlates with the increase in odds and based on the schedule and all of the upgrades, there is some value in betting Philadelphia across the board but that is not likely where our money is going as there are teams below them with higher odds that could have an easier path. Crossover games against Green Bay and Baltimore away from home could determine their over/under result.
Dallas Cowboys: 12-6 ~ 5-1 NFC East ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 10-7-1 O/U
Won the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 12
Notable Additions: RB Ezekiel Elliott, LB Eric Kendricks
Notable Losses: RB Tony Pollard, WR Michael Gallup, OT Tyron Smith, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Dante Fowler, DT Johnathan Hankins, LB Leighton Vander Esch, CB Stephon Gilmore, S Jayron Kearse
Notable Draft Selections: OT Tyler Guyton, DE Marshawn Kneeland, G Cooper Beebe, LB Marist Liufau
Dallas has won the NFC East five of the last 10 seasons but was unable to get past the Divisional Round three times while losing in the Wild Card Round twice and throw in another Divisional Round loss in 2022 as a Wild Card team, it has been a decade of disappointment. Dallas won its last Super Bowl in 1995 and in 13 playoff appearances since then, the Cowboys have not even made it to the NFC Championship so why they get so much attention and public backing is mind-boggling. Here they are again with high expectations in a conference that is wide open with arguably six teams that can win the NFC with Dallas in that mix. Since 2015, they have been no higher than +1,500 to win the NFC and no other team can stake that claim over the last nine years yet there have been six different teams representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Enough about the Dallas futility as it again has talent to make a run that many fans have not been able to witness. Quarterback Dak Prescott is usually the scapegoat and will likely be again but other than CeeDee Lamb, the offense is not very good. There is no reliable No. 2 receiver, the running game is going to be bad and the offensive line lost two significant starters. Running back Tony Pollard is off to Tennessee so they resigned Ezekiel Elliott to go along with Rico Dowdle. The defense was No. 23 in EPA and they did not do much to upgrade as the pass rush will still be solid but the back end needs help, especially with DaRon Bland out a while.
Money will be pouring in on the Cowboys as is the case every year and that will not be including a single cent from this end, at least to start. There will be that one season where Dallas eventually wins the Super Bowl and we will miss it but continuing to chase a so-called contender every season has cost a lot of people a lot of money. Detroit, San Francisco and Houston are the three crossover games besides playing the NFC South and AFC North so this schedule is not easy and there is value on the under at plus money. The bet could be for Dallas to make the playoffs which DraftKings has at -210 but it is a wait and see as the first seven games present a challenge and we could see the number drop should they have some early struggles.
Washington Commanders: 4-13 ~ 0-6 NFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/U
Finished 4th in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 19
Notable Additions: QB Marcus Mariota, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Zach Ertz, G Nick Allegretti, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Dante Fowler, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Frankie Luvu, CB Michael Davis, S Jeremy Chinn, K Brandon McManus
Notable Losses: QB Jayden Daniels, DT Johnny Newton, CB Mike Sainristill, TE Ben Sinnott, OT Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey, LB Jordan Magee
Notable Draft Selections: QB Jacoby Brissett, QB Sam Howell, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, OT Charles Leno, G Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, DE Casey Toohill, DE James Smith-Williams, LB Cody Baron, CB Kendall Fuller, S Kamren Curl, K Joey Slye
Washington has won the NFC East only three times since the turn of the century, two of those with nine or fewer wins including one with a losing record. They have not had a double-digit winning season since 2012 while having just three 10-win seasons since 1992 after having done so in eight of their previous nine seasons from 1983-1991. This is the epitome of below average and the Commanders are once again going through a rebuild but this one seems a little different. Last season, Washington opened last season 2-0 and while no one was expecting any sort of positive run, it went south quickly as the Commanders lost 13 of their last 15 games with the two wins coming against Atlanta and New England. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. He is being compared to Robert Griffin III but with a higher ceiling and to help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. The Commanders regressed considerably on defense and finished dead last in EPA while allowing 10 more ppg and 85 more ypg than it did in 2022. They did upgrade but far from enough.
Could Washington be the Houston of last season, bringing in the No. 2 draft pick to take them to the playoffs? This is unlikely in this division but the Commanders will be better after getting outgained in 13 of 17 games last season. Despite only four wins last season, the win total of 6.5 is the same as last year which came after an eight-win season in 2022 so the oddsmakers are expecting improvements. The schedule definitely helps as Washington has nine home games, it has four winnable road games and its three crossover games are against Arizona, Chicago and Tennessee. All in, there are 11 swing games including seven of the first nine so a 5-4 start a possible and there are two more wins the rest of the way so the over is the play.
New York Giants: 6-11 ~ 3-3 NFC East ~ 8-8-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/U
Finished 3rd in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs
2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 6
Notable Additions: QB Drew Lock, RB Devin Singletary, WR Isaiah McKenzie, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan, G Aaron Stinnie, DE Brian Burns, S Jalen Mills
Notable Losses: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Parris Campbell, TE Darren Waller, DT A’Shawn Robinson, OLB Isaiah Simmons, S Xavier McKinney
Notable Draft Selections: WR Malik Nabers, S Tyler Nubin, CB Andru Phillips, TE Theo Johnson
No team has won the NFC East in consecutive years since 2004, the longest streak in NFL history but the Giants have not been part of the musical chairs since their last division title in 2011. New York made a surprising playoff run in 2022, if you can call a run one playoff victory, and it hoped to build off of that heading into last season but there was some early foreshadowing after a 40-0 season opening loss at home against Dallas. Their first four losses were by more than two touchdowns and while they got some late season success from backup quarterback Tommy DeVito, it was a disaster of a season for the Giants. Many are calling this the year it has to happen for quarterback Daniel Jones and head coach Brian Daboll but this is just hard to foresee. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball. Jones has shown some positive things but he looks too uncomfortable a majority of the time and he is coming off that torn ACL while his preseason work has been hard to watch at times. The loss of Saquon Barkley is going to hurt and they did hardly anything to improve one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The defense has regressed each of the last five seasons and not much was invested in improving. They do have a formidable defensive line as they got Brian Burns from Carolina to line up with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence but there are holes elsewhere.
While we like the Washington over at 6.5, we love the Giants under at the same number even with a little added juice to it. New York was on pace to have one of the worst records in the NFL last season but closing 4-3 over the last seven games in a stretch that meant nothing inflated their overall record to 6-11 and that hurts going into this season. New York has to face the No. 6 schedule that is loaded early on and this season could be over quickly. The Giants get Indianapolis, Minnesota and Seattle in their three crossover games and none of those are easy despite the first two being at home. They have gone 2-9 to the under over the last 11 seasons, finishing with six or fewer wins in eight of those and we do not see that changing again this year.
