25* MLB GAME OF THE MONTH - 92% 23-2 sides
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees
- Time
- 06/30/2021 07:05 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
New York Yankees -123
(5D Reduced Juice)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- Our 25* MLB Game of the Month is on the New York Yankees with the money line versus the Los Angeles Angels at 7:05 pm et.
The Yankees ended a four-game losing streak last night with an 11-5 win against the Angels in Game 2 of this four-game midweek series. After getting swept on the road at Fenway Park against the Red Sox, New York has won five of their last seven games when playing at home in Yankee Stadium. At 41-38, the Yankees are in fourth place in the AL East, seven games behind Boston. Yet they remain tough to beat at home against the teams they are expected to beat. New York has won forty-six of their last sixty-two games at home against teams with losing records. The oddsmakers have lowered the price on the Yankees for this game with the Angels’ two-way Most Valuable Player candidate Shohei Ohtani taking the ball as their starting pitcher. The value is with the Bronx Bombers tonight. They exceed expectations when priced in this range. The Yankees have won twenty of their last thirty-one games when the oddsmakers price them as a +125 underdog to a -125 favorite, including seven of their ten games this season. Ohtani has been a surprise as to just how good he has been on the mound. The right-hander has a 3-1 record with a 2.58 era and a 1.18 whip in 11 starts. Yet it might be premature to begin pricing him as an elite starting pitcher. Command remains a challenge for Ohtani who is walking 12.5% of the batters he faces. In his last two starts on the road, he has walked six batters in 11 innings for a 4.9 bases-on-balls per nine innings average. In four starts on the road, Ohtani has a 3.91 era. Seven of his eleven starts have been at home, so this looks to be a good opportunity to fade him in this high-profile matchup where the pressure will be high. The Angels have won only once in their last five games when pitching Ohtani in games when the oddsmakers price them from a +125 underdog to a -125 favorite.
Los Angeles has lost six of their last eight games to fall to 38-41 on the season. They are ten games behind Houston in the AL West standings in what is developing into another wasted season with the game’s best player, Mike Trout. The slugger is unavailable to the team on the 60-day disabled list with a calf injury. Ohtani has starred with both his bat and with his arm, but he does not have enough help. Justin Upton is on the disabled list with a back injury. The bullpen has a 4.85 era and a 1.43 whip with 11 blown saves. The Angels have won twice in their last ten games against teams with a winning record, and they have only upset two of their last nine opponents when the oddsmakers install them as an underdog. Los Angeles has won twice in their last eight games on the road. The Angels have been a poor long-term investment in circumstances like this, they have only won twenty-one of their last sixty games on the road when the oddsmakers price them as a favorite priced up to -125 to an underdog priced up to +125. They face Domingo German who may be undervalued in this spot. The right-hander did not pitch last year after serving a suspension regarding domestic battery charges. He demonstrated the starting pitcher who was 18-4 in 2019 last month when he produced a 2.40 era in May. His frontline numbers this month have taken a step back with an 0-2 record with a 7.54 era in five starts. Yet his 19 strikeouts and only six walks in 23 innings in those games are encouraging. The schedule has been tough this month with two starts against first-place Boston, one start against second-place Oakland, one start against second-place Tampa Bay, and a start at Philadelphia. For the season, German has a 4-5 record with a 4.32 era and a 1.21 whip in 14 starts. In his seven starts at home, German has a strong 1.10 whip, and opposing hitters have a low .220 batting average against him. The Yankees have won five of their last six games at home with German pitching with the oddsmakers installing them as an underdog priced up to +125 to a favorite priced up to -125. German is better at night where he has a 3.05 era and a 0.95 whip in eight starts. New York has won five of their last seven games with German their starter pitching under the lights. The Angels are averaging 3.3 runs per game with a .222 batting average in their last seven games going into yesterday’s game. They have won just once in their last six games against right-handed starting pitchers. The Yankees have won eleven of their last fifteen against the Angels after last night’s win. Take the New York Yankees with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.