TDG’s SATURDAY NIGHT VEGAS *JACKPOT*
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- NHL
- Competition
- Dallas Stars vs Colorado Avalanche
- Release Date
- 04/26/2025 05:32 PM
- Event Date
- 04/26/2025 09:55 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Colorado Avalanche -182
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 20* NHL Saturday Night Vegas Jackpot is with Colorado with the money line versus Dallas at 9:40 pm et.
The Colorado Avalanche easily took the opening game of this series, 5-1. They could easily have been attempting to close out this series tonight with a couple more breaks. In both Game 2 and Game 3 of this series, they had a lead in the third period before giving a game-tying goal. Yet the Aves then got power play chances in both those games that extended into overtime, but they could not score the game-winning goal in either contest. The Stars later scored in both games, and they now have a 2-1 series lead after their 2-1 victory in Game 3 on Wednesday. Colorado has won seventeen of their last twenty-five games after losing two games in a row. They have won twelve of their last sixteen games after playing a game where they did not score more than one goal. After scoring only four combined goals in their last two games, Colorado should find their scoring touch. They averaged 3.5 goals per game at home in the regular season and held their opponents to 2.8 goals per game. Captain Gabriel Landeskog returned to the ice in Game 3 for the first time in three years after a long recovery from a knee injury. He will be promoted to the second line tonight and feature on the Avalanche power play that needs a jumpstart. They have scored on just two of their power play chances in this series despite scoring in 25.3% of their power plays in the regular season. Colorado has a 26-13-3 record at home. They have won sixteen of their last twenty-six games at home when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite priced up to -200. Mackenzie Blackwood has been reliable in goal since Colorado traded for him from San Jose. He has a 2.34 goals-against average and a .910 save percentage along with three of his four shutouts in twenty-five starts at home in the regular season. He stopped 26 of the 28 shots he faced in Game 3. The Stars allow their opponents to attempt 30.2 shots per game, and these opponents score on 18.3% of their power play chances. The Avalanche have won eleven of their last fifteen games at home against opponents who allow 29.5 or more shots per game and convert on 17% or more of their power play chances.
Dallas was reeling with eight straight losses after their 5-1 loss in the opening game of this best-of-seven series. They only had 24 shots in Game 1, while goaltender Jake Oettinger gave up four goals on 23 shots. Yet the Stars significantly increased their work rate in Games 2 and 3 to pull off two straight upset victories. The Stars are still missing several key players. Forward Jason Robertson is out with a right knee injury, and Dallas will miss the 35 goals and 45 assists he has this year. The Stars are thin on their blue line as well. Miro Heiskanen has been out for months with a knee injury. The veteran is one of their best defensive players, and he has added 20 assists this year. Dallas is also without one of their rotation players on the blue line as Nils Lundqvist is out the season. These absences put even more pressure on the Stars who gave up 3.0 goals per game when playing on the road in the regular season. They have only won four of their last ten games on the road against opponents who are winning 51% to 60% of their games. Oettinger is at his best when playing at home where he has a 2.14 goals-against average and a .920 save percentage along with two of his three shutouts in thirty-two starts in the regular season. Yet in his twenty-six regular season starts on the road, he has a 3.16 goals-against average and a .896 save percentage. Colorado averaged 29.9 shots per game in the regular season and held their opponents to 26.0 shots per game. Dallas has won just three of their last eight games on the road against opponents who average +3.0 or more shots per game than what they give up. They have won just twice in their last six road games against opponents who hold their opponents to 26.5 or fewer shots per game. The Stars have won just six of their last sixteen games on the road against opponents who average at least 29.5 shots per game and convert on at least 17.5% of their power play opportunities. Play Colorado with the money line.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
