TOM'S 4* NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Tom Stryker
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs Los Angeles Dodgers
- Release Date
- 04/26/2025 10:12 AM
- Event Date
- 04/26/2025 09:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Run Line
- Pick
-
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- #912 LA DODGERS RUN-LINE with Sasaki (-) over Pittsburgh with Keller at 9:10 PM EST
Off three consecutive losses by a combined five runs, the Dodgers will have no trouble extending the margin in this matchup against the Pirates. Yesterday, Pittsburgh traveled to LA and picked up an impressive 3-0 win and manager Derek Shelton and his players will get blasted here.
Hitting the hill for the home team will be rookie right-hander Roki Sasaki. With a grand total of five career starts in the books, No. 11 has surrendered just seven earned runs and 13 hits in 19.2 innings of work. Roki struck out 16 and walked 16 on his way to an 0-1 record with a 3.20 ERA. In the Japanese League, Sasaki appeared in 69 games and allowed 93 earned runs and 275 hits in 414.2 frames. That shakes down to a 30-15 mark with a strong 2.02 ERA.
Picking up the pearl for the visitors will be righty Mitch Keller. So far this year, No. 23 had his number called five times in the role of a starter and was popped for 13 earned runs and 28 hits in 28.0 frames. Mitch whiffed 20 and walked 10 on his way to a 1-2 tally with a 4.18 ERA. Overall, with seven seasons in the bank for the Bucs, Keller has been crushed for 371 earned runs and 771 hits in 729.2 innings. After the math, that equates to a 37-52 record with a weak 4.58 ERA.
There are a few highly profitable trends that support this investment. The Dodgers have tasted victory in 197 of its last 369 games against the run line, 84 of its last 142 against the run line when coming off a loss, and 161 of their last 299 against the run line when rolling without rest. On the other side of the field, Pittsburgh owns a run line tally of 3-7 this season when coming off a victory.
Resting in the bottom of the NL Central with a run differential of -14, the Pirates will get smashed in this spot. Take Los Angeles on the run line with Sasaki. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
