Nelly’s Saturday AL Knockout 10-3 MLB RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins
- Release Date
- 04/26/2025 08:49 AM
- Event Date
- 04/26/2025 02:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
Minnesota Twins -110
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- The Twins have been a great disappointment this season but Minnesota does have a winning record at Target Field and holds a bit of momentum winning three of the past four games, with only loss being a rain-shortened game on Thursday. The upside of that situation was needing only one reliever Thursday while last night’s blowout win allowed the Twins to keep their top relief options off the mound. After a promising first two weeks, the Angels have gone 3-8 in the past 11 games to slip below .500. Minnesota doesn’t have great splits vs. left-handers overall this season but in the past five games the Twins are batting .282 with 4.8 runs per nine vs. southpaws, while the Angels are batting just .195 in that span vs. right-handers. Yusei Kikuchi has a 3.38 ERA in five starts in 2025, but his FIP is nearly a run higher and he has a 4.3 BB/9 and a strikeout rate that would be his lowest since 2019. The Angels are just 1-4 behind Kikuchi this season, including going 0-4 in his road starts. Simeon Woods Richardson has been a solid option for the Twins on the mound and so far, his strikeout numbers are up in 2025 compared to last season. He had had some tough luck with three home runs allowed in 19 innings, but his only home start was by far his best of 2025. Minnesota has a significant bullpen edge in the 2025 projections as well as the season numbers so far with the Angels having a 5.31 bullpen ERA with a 1.77 WHIP over the past five games, with the unit greatly hurt by Ben Joyce being on the IL. With Mike Trout and Carlos Correa both hitting below the Mendoza line so far these offenses have not reached their potential, but despite the disappointing record, Minnesota’s pitching remains strong, and the Twins have won seven of the past eight against the Angels and should have a good opportunity Saturday. Some may be swayed by Minnesota being 0-3 in small early sample size vs. left-handed starters. Two of those starters were Chris Sale and Cole Ragans, with Kikuchi not at that same level.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
