Nelly’s Saturday Playoff Delivery 16-6 RUN
- Handicapper
- Nelly's Sports
- League
- NBA
- Competition
- Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers
- Release Date
- 04/26/2025 08:19 AM
- Event Date
- 04/26/2025 06:15 PM
- Bet Type
- Point Spread
- Pick
-
Los Angeles Clippers -6 (-110)
(Consensus Line)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- After two close games in Denver that were split, the Clippers dominated Game 3 at home, winning 117-83 to take a 2-1 lead in this series, sitting with a great opportunity Saturday to pull ahead 3-1 in this 4/5 series playing as a home favorite in Game 4. The Clippers scored 65 points in a red hot first half as the Nuggets mailed it in after the break, including adding only 13 points in the 4th quarter as the final margin swelled. The Nuggets will draw some attention as a recent NBA champion and a formidable team catching a healthy underdog spread off a humiliating loss. Denver has not lost three consecutive playoff games since the 2022 postseason, but a caveat must be added that Denver’s recent playoff success all came under Michael Malone, Denver’s head coach since 2015 who was shockingly fired with three regular season games remaining. There is a chance that disruption won’t be something the team can overcome, and more details of the fallout may emerge at a later date. The Clippers did shoot extremely well from 3-point range in Game 3, but Denver is one of the worst 3-point defenses in the entire NBA playoff field, ranking 22nd in the regular season, in great contrast to the Clippers who were fifth best. #4 seeds in Game 4 of the first round off a Game 3 loss have been surprisingly poor performers in the NBA playoffs in the recent historical snapshot, going just 13-24 S/U and ATS since 1996 including just 3-15 S/U and ATS since 2010. With James Harden and Kawhi Leonard both healthy the ceiling for the Clippers is as high as it has been since the run to the Western Conference Finals in 2021 and contrary to how the market generally reacts in the NBA playoffs, a popular and proven Nuggets team is an even bigger underdog after suffering a blowout loss less than 48 hours ago. Add that Michael Porter and Russell Westbrook are battling injuries as key contributors in the current makeup of the roster, and this could be the start of the end of an era in Denver. Tyronn Lue is an NBA champion head coach and after first round exits with injuries a factor the past two seasons, this can be a breakthrough opportunity for the Clippers and Lue should be given the edge over interim head coach David Adelman who has been a head coach for now just six NBA games, particularly with the defensive edges the Clippers project to continue to hold in this matchup. Denver will be a popular underdog on Saturday, but the Clippers had one of the league’s best home records going 30-11 S/U and 28-13 ATS and the edge in the first ever playoff game at the Intuit Dome on Thursday was significant. The only home loss for the Clippers since early February came by two points vs. the #1 seeded Thunder, with 12 of the 14 wins in that span by at least eight points.
Thank you for playing with Nelly’s and Best of Luck.
