Sean's 10* MLB N.L. TOTAL OF WEEK! 22-14 RUN!
- Handicapper
- Sean Murphy
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks
- Release Date
- 04/26/2025 07:50 AM
- Event Date
- 04/26/2025 08:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
Atlanta Braves vs Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9.5 (-115)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- National League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Atlanta and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday.
After an 8-2 Braves win opened the series last night, I’m anticipating a much tighter, lower-scoring contest on Saturday. Grant Holmes gets the ball for Atlanta and has quietly put together a strong run after a rough season debut, giving up just four earned runs over his last 17 1/3 innings. His ability to pitch deep into games, combined with the fact that he faces a slumping Arizona lineup (25th in wOBA over the last seven days), puts the Braves in a good spot to limit damage.
Merrill Kelly counters for the Diamondbacks and enters in strong form himself, having allowed only four earned runs across his last three starts (17 2/3 innings). He’s enjoyed success against Atlanta in the past, holding current Braves hitters to a miserable .170 batting average and .564 OPS. Backing him up is a D-backs bullpen that ranks first in the majors in xFIP this season, providing another layer of protection for the 'under'.
With two pitchers in good form and at least one lineup struggling to string hits together, I expect runs to be at a premium on Saturday night.
Take the 'under'. Projected score: Diamondbacks 4, Braves 3.
