Sean's MLB AFTERNOON GRAND SLAM! 17-11 RUN!
- Handicapper
- Sean Murphy
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- New York Mets vs Washington Nationals
- Release Date
- 04/26/2025 07:35 AM
- Event Date
- 04/26/2025 04:30 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
New York Mets -175
(BetMGM)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- My selection is on New York over Washington at 4:05 pm et on Saturday.
After a tough walk-off loss on Friday night, I expect the Mets to regroup and even the series on Saturday afternoon. Clay Holmes, the converted reliever, has found his footing in the rotation, allowing just two earned runs over his last 11 innings while holding opponents to a .250 on-base percentage across that stretch. Coming off his longest outing of the season and with full rest, Holmes should be positioned to deliver another strong performance.
Meanwhile, Brad Lord hasn’t inspired much confidence for the Nationals. While his FIP sits at a serviceable 3.78, his bloated 1.88 WHIP tells the real story. He’s struggled with traffic on the basepaths and has been tagged for six earned runs over his last two starts, with opponents reaching base nearly 45% of the time during that span.
If this game comes down to the bullpens, the edge clearly belongs to New York, as the Mets' relief corps ranks second in xFIP this season compared to 28th for Washington. Look for the Mets to take advantage of those bullpen struggles late if needed.
Take New York. Projected score: Mets 6, Nationals 3.