25* MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL GAME OF THE MONTH!
- Handicapper
- Hollywood Sports
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres
- Release Date
- 04/26/2025 03:29 AM
- Event Date
- 04/26/2025 08:40 PM
- Bet Type
- Moneyline
- Pick
-
San Diego Padres -148
(BetOnline)
- Outcome
- Loss
- Analysis
- At 8:40 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the money-line on the San Diego Padres (928) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (927) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Ryan Pepiot. THE SITUATION: San Diego (17-9) has lost three of their last four games after their 1-0 loss at home against the Rays in the opening game of this weekend series. Tampa Bay (12-14) has won three games in a row.
REASONS TO TAKE THE PADRES WITH THE MONEY-LINE: San Diego should bounce back tonight as they have won 5 of their last 7 games after a loss this season. They have won 12 of their 14 games at home at Petco Park this season — and they have won 49 of their last 78 games at home when priced as a money-line favorite priced at -110 or higher including nine of their 10 games this season. Cease gets the ball tonight looking to improve on his 1-1 record along with a 6.04 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in five starts. His numbers are saddled by one bad start in the minor league ballpark in Sacramento when the Athletics scored nine times against him in four innings. Take away that start and the right-hander has a 3.32 ERA this season. The underlying metrics look good despite the bad start on the road as both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 3.60 and 3.62 moving forward. Last year, Cease enjoyed a 3.03 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in 14 starts at home. He had a 14-11 record with a 3.47 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP last season — and those numbers were validated by his 3.46 SIERA and 3.44 xFIP. In his three starts at home this season, he boasts a 3.31 ERA along with a 1.16 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .234. His walks are down from an 8.9% mark of the batters he faced last season to a 7.9% clip this year. Cease’s strikeouts are up as well — he averaged 9.83 strikeouts per nine innings last year and now is generating 9.96 Ks per nine innings this year. He’s fine. He should thrive against a Rays’ lineup that is hitting only .228 in their last seven games with a .302 on-base percentage and a .668 OPS during that span. Tampa Bay also ranks 20th in both weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created on the road against right-handed pitchers this season. The Rays have lost 5 of their last 8 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 9 of their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 27 games against teams who are winning at least 62% of their games, they have lost 20 of those contests including eight of those 11 games on the road. Pepiot gets the ball for Tampa Bay. he has a 1-3 record this season with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP — and all those starts have been at home at their temporary home at George M. Steinbrenner Field. Having to pitch at a hitter-friendly minor league park may have exposed the right-hander. Last season, Pepiot had a 1.07 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .198 in his 14 starts at Tropicana Field — but in his 12 starts on the road, those numbers rose to a 1.25 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .229. Both his SIERA and xFIP projected an ERA of 3.88 and 4.05 based on his peripheral numbers last season. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast this season which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data sits at 4.69. He has surrendered seven home runs in his last three starts which demonstrates significant concern over him giving up too many hard-hit balls. His change-up has not been as effective as a secondary pitch. He ranks in the 21st percentile with opposing hitters generating a barrel rate on 11.8% of the batted balls against him. Opposing hitters are generating a hard-hit rate in 42.4% of their batted balls against him which ranks in the lowest 38th percentile — and the average exit velocity of 90.2 miles per hour of the batted balls against him is in the lowest-34th percentile.
FINAL TAKE: The Padres have a .275 batting average at home at Petco Park with a .359 on-base percentage and a .790 OPS in their 14 home games this season. They rank seventh in MLB in weighted On-Base Average at home against right-handed pitchers — and they rank third in MLB in weighted Runs Created at home. 25* Major League Baseball Game of the Month with the money-line on the San Diego Padres (928) versus the Tampa Bay Rays (927) listing both starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Ryan Pepiot. Best of luck for us — Frank.
