Matt Fargo - Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers

Fargo's NBA Ultimate Underdog (11-5 Run)

Handicapper
Matt Fargo
League
NBA
Competition
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers
Release Date
04/25/2025 05:04 PM
Event Date
04/26/2025 06:15 PM
Bet Type
Point Spread
Pick
Denver Nuggets +6.5 (-115) (BetMGM)
Outcome
Win
Analysis
This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Ultimate Underdog. Following a split in Denver, the Clippers took a 2-1 series lead with a 34-point win in Game Three as they blew it open thanks to a 23-2 run over the end of the first quarter and the start of the second quarter and then never looked back. These blowouts should not happen in the playoffs between two fairly equal teams separated by one game and coming off the first two games that were decided by five points combined. It was the offensive effort for Denver that was lackluster as it shot only 40 percent from the floor including 26 percent from long range while committing 16 turnovers. The Nuggets are catching a rare bigger number as they are 4-2 ATS on the road when getting six points or more, one of those losses coming way back in November and the other coming at Oklahoma City where they entered the fourth quarter down by three points before the Thunder pulled away. We saw this number go between 6 and 5.5 points after opening and then fell down to 4.5 points very early Friday morning and stayed for about four minutes and has been on the move back up since then. The public will be backing the Clippers based on their run of 20-4 over their last 24 games and we feel this is the contrarian spot. 10* (565) Denver Nuggets

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