TDG’s MLB SUNDAY NIGHT TV TOTAL OF THE MONTH
- Handicapper
- Team Del Genio
- League
- MLB
- Competition
- San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros
- Release Date
- 04/20/2025 06:15 PM
- Event Date
- 04/20/2025 07:10 PM
- Bet Type
- Over / Under
- Pick
-
San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Under 7.5 (-115)
(DraftKings)
- Outcome
- Win
- Analysis
- Our 25* MLB Sunday Night TV Total of the Month with the San Diego/Houston under at 7:10 pm et.
The San Diego Padres have scored four runs or fewer in four straight games after losing on the road in Houston against the Astros, 3-2, on Saturday. The Padres have played thirteen of their last twenty games under the number after losing their previous game by just one run. They are hitting .274 this year with a .343 on-base percentage and a .416 slugging percentage. Yet against left-handed pitchers, those numbers decline to .263/.337/.371 hitting splits. They face the Astros’ Framber Valdez tonight. The left-hander has a 1-2 record with a 4.91 era and a 1.27 whip in four starts. He got hit hard in his last start by giving up seven runs in four innings of work at St. Louis last Monday. He went into that start with a 2.50 era and 0.94 whip which is in line with his numbers last year. Valdez posted a 2.91 era and a 1.11 whip in 28 starts. In his fifteen starts at home, he had a 2.53 era and a 1.05 whip. His underlying statistics look good this season. In his 22 innings, he has struck out 24 batters and walked only eight batters. He has not given up an earned run in two of his four starts this year. The Padres have played sixteen of their last twenty-five games under the number when playing a team using a left-handed starting pitcher including five of those eight games this year.
Houston has scored three runs or less in four of their last five games. They have played five of their last eight games under the number after winning their previous game. They have played six of their last eight games under the total against National League teams with an on-base percentage of .340 or higher. The Astros have played five of their six games at home this season under the number when the oddsmakers installed them as a money line favorite priced up to -125 or as an underdog priced up to +125. They faced Dylan Cease who is another starting pitcher who has had one bad start disrupt what would otherwise be very good initial stats. The right-hander has a 1-1 record with a 6.64 era and a 1.52 whip in four starts. His bad outing came on April 8th when he gave up nine runs in four innings pitching on the road against the Athletics in their temporary minor league stadium in Sacramento this year. Take away that start and Cease has a 3.38 era and a 1.19 whip. Last year. Cease posted a 3.47 era and a 1.07 whip in 33 starts. In 20 innings this year, he has 24 strikeouts and just seven walks. The Astros are struggling with their bats this year given their .221/302/.333 hitting splits. In night games this year, they have even worse .207/.285/.334 splits. Houston has played seven of their eleven night games this year under the total. They have played seven of their eleven games against National League teams this year under the number. Play the under.
Good luck - Team Del Genio.
