Hollywood Sports - Arizona vs Duke

CBB THURSDAY NIGHT DISCOUNTED DEAL

Handicapper

Hollywood Sports

League

NCAAB

Competition

Arizona vs Duke

Release Date

03/27/2025 08:41 PM

Event Date

03/27/2025 10:03 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Duke -9.5 (-105) (BetOnline)

Outcome

Loss

Analysis

At 9:39 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Duke Blue Devils (626) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (625) in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament. THE SITUATION: Duke (33-3) has won 13 games in a row after their 89-66 victory against Baylor as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. Arizona (24-12) has won four of their last five games after their 87-83 win against Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Sunday night. This game is being played on a neutral court at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE DEVILS MINUS THE POINTS: Duke was dominant against the Bears last Sunday. They nailed 64.4% of their shots and scored at an incredible 1.51 Points-Per-Possession rate. Cooper Flagg appears completely recovered from the injury that kept him out of the ACC Championship Game. They have won their first two games in the Big Dance by 67 combined points. Using Ken Pomeroy’s metrics, they lead the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and rank fourth in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Even more impressive, in Pomeroy’s 29 years of advanced metrics in his database, only the 1999 Duke team has a better Adjusted Net Efficiency than this Blue Devils team — and I am not talking about just Duke teams, I am talking about every college basketball team since 1996-97. Now that accomplishment does not mean that the Blue Devils will cover point spreads — but they have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games on the road after winning their last game by 15 or more points. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 games after scoring 85 or more points in their last contest. While Duke’s ability to score buckets can overwhelm their opponents, what makes them so tough to beat is their stout play on defense. They have size at every position — they lead the nation with an opponent’s effective field goal percentage of 44.1%. This size helps them neutralize good rebounding teams. The Wildcats rank 16th in the nation by pulling down 36.1% of their missed shots — but the Blue Devils rank 44th on the road by limiting their opponents to rebounding 27.2% of their missed shots. Arizona outrebounds their opponents by +8.0 Rebounds-Per-Game — but the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. The Wildcats hold their opponents to 41.5% shooting — but Duke has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games against opponents holding their opponents to no better than 42% shooting. And while Arizona is outscoring their opponents by +9.7 Points-Per-Game, the Blue Devils have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +8.0 or more PPG. Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games on the road after a straight-up win. They overcame a near-disastrous 19-4 deficit to the Ducks early in that game — and Caleb Love scored 29 points in the victory. The Wildcats go as Love goes — but he can be enigmatic. On the road, Arizona scores -5.9 fewer adjusted points per 100 possessions which ranks as the 306th worst dropoff in the nation. They also fall to 50th in the nation by rebounding 33.7% of their missed shots. Duke holds their opponents to 61.7 PPG — and the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams who do not allow more than 64.0 PPG. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog. FINAL TAKE: This game is a rematch of the Blue Devils’ 69-55 upset victory against the Wildcats in Tucson on November 22nd as a 1.5-point underdog. Duke’s size was too much for Arizona as they won the rebuilding battle by a 43-30 margin and held Love to 3 of 13 shooting with him making only 1 of his 9 shots from behind the arc. The Blue Devils have improved significantly since that game — the offense now runs through Flagg and Sion James replaced Caleb Foster in the starting lineup in a boost to the offense. At 6’4, Love will likely struggle with the size of James and Tyrese Proctor who are both 6’6. The Wildcats lost 7’2 Motiejus Krivas to a season-ending injury in early December — and the rotation of Henri Veesar and Tobe Awaka has not been less effective in his absence but they lost size in the necessary adjustment. 10* CBB Thursday Night Discounted Deal with the Duke Blue Devils (626) minus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (625). Best of luck for us — Frank.