Team Del Genio - Arizona vs Duke

TDG’s NCAA-B SWEET SIXTEEN GAME OF THE YEAR

Handicapper

Team Del Genio

League

NCAAB

Competition

Arizona vs Duke

Release Date

03/27/2025 11:29 AM

Event Date

03/27/2025 10:03 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Duke -9.5 (-110) (DraftKings)

Outcome

Loss

Analysis

Our 25* NCAA-B Sweet Sixteen Game of the Year is on Duke minus the points versus Arizona at 9:39 pm et. The Duke Blue Devils are being given a tremendous amount of respect by the oddsmakers tonight as a favorite of almost ten points against Arizona. The deference is justified for a team that has lost only once since getting beat by Kansas on a neutral court in Las Vegas in November. The Blue Devils lead the country in offensive efficiency and rank fourth in defensive efficiency. They won the ACC tournament title game despite Cooper Flagg being injured for that game. He returned to the court last week in the round one victory in the NCAA tournament against Mount St. Mary’s. He scored 18 points and added nine rebounds and six assists in an 89-66 victory against Baylor in the second round on Sunday. Flagg has improved throughout the season as the freshman has developed more confidence to create his own shot in clutch moments. Duke’s size is one of the reasons they are so hard to beat. At 6’5, Caleb Foster is the smallest player in their regular rotation. At 7’2, Khamon Maluach gives them an intimidating rim protector. They hold their opponents to 43.1% shooting of their 2-point shots inside the arc, ranking second in the country. They make 58.5% of their 2-point shots inside the arc, ranking fifth in the country. They get the most out of their offensive possessions since they only turn the ball over in 14.0% of their possessions, ranking 16th in the country. They get plenty of second-chance scoring opportunities by rebounding 34.4% of their missed shots, ranking 48th in the country. Finally, they thrive with the basketball in their 3-point shooting. The Blue Devils make 38.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 17th in the country. They take 45.7% of their shots from 3-point land as well, ranking 45th in the country. Duke has covered the point spread in seventeen of their last twenty-two games after beating their previous opponent by 15 or more points. They have covered the point spread in twelve of their last eighteen games on the road when the oddsmakers installed them as the favorite. They have covered the point spread in eight of their last eleven games against opponents winning 60% to 80% of their games. They have been playing without junior Malib Brown who comes off the bench for them to provide a boost on defense due to an injured shoulder. He is a game-time decision to return to action tonight. Inconsistency has plagued the Arizona Wildcats down the stretch of the season. Since February 8th, they had only won more than one game in a row once before the start of the NCAA tournament, and they have a 6-6 record during that stretch. Perhaps it is their 3-point shooting as the source of inconsistency. The Wildcats only make 33.4% of their shots from 3-point land, ranking 195th in the nation. They began the tournament with a 93-65 victory against Akron. They followed that up with an 87-83 victory against Oregon on Sunday night to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. They have covered the point spread five times in their last thirteen games on the road after winning their last game. Arizona had a 13-3 record at home yet they are just 11-9 when playing on the road where they are scoring four fewer points per game. Their best quality is getting second-chance scoring opportunities by rebounding 36.1% of their missed shots, ranking 16th in the country. Yet good luck getting offensive rebounds against this Duke team that limits their opponents to rebounding only 26.7% of their missed shots, ranking 41st in the country. The Wildcats are only middle of the pack with their perimeter defense as their opponents make 33.5% of their shots from the 3-point line, ranking 156th in the nation. Arizona is a good team, yet the Blue Devils may be historically great. Play Duke minus the points. Good luck - Team Del Genio.