Tom Stryker - Maryland vs Florida

TOM'S 19-4 NCAA SWEET 16 ULTIMATE INVESTMENT

Handicapper

Tom Stryker

League

NCAAB

Competition

Maryland vs Florida

Release Date

03/27/2025 09:41 AM

Event Date

03/27/2025 07:39 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Florida -6 (-110) (Consensus Line)

Outcome

Win

Analysis

#632 FLORIDA (-) over Maryland at 7:39 PM EST After failing to cash a ticket in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, Florida will flex its muscles here and dominate Maryland from start to finish. The Terrapins escaped a travel call on their game winning shot to get here and the Turtles luck will run out against the mighty Gators. Owning a solid 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS record in its last 15 games, there is nothing wrong with the way UF is playing basketball at the moment. Equally impressive, when coming off two or more pointspread losses, head coach Todd Golden and his boys have responded in a big way posting a proud 56-29-3 ATS mark provided their opponent arrives with confidence off a straight up win. In this situation fighting a non-conference foe, the Gators tighten up to a rewarding 19-4-1 ATS. Also, in the Sweet 16 round of the Big Dance, No. 1 seeds that are priced as a favorite of -6 or more hold a reliable 35-19-3 ATS tally provided they did not smash the Las Vegas pointspread by 10 points or more in their last tournament game. Florida fits that NCAA Tournament situation perfectly. After escaping Colorado State with a 72-21 win, Maryland won't be as fortunate in this Sweet 16 matchup. Since the 2023 NCAA Tournament, the Terrapins have been mediocre against the spread posting a soft 32-37-1 ATS record. In this situation fighting a foe that arrives off a straight up win, the Turtles slip to a stiff 10-20-1 ATS including a nasty 0-7 SU and ATS provided they are priced as a pup of +9 or less. Additionally, on the road or on a neutral court priced as an underdog of +6 or more, head coach Kevin Willard and his crew hold a woeful 10-45 SU and 17-36-2 ATS tally provided they storm in with momentum off two or more straight up wins. If the Terps are running the floor against a foe that enters off a pointspread loss, this trend falls to a rough 3-19 SU and 4-16-2 ATS. That spells serious financial trouble for Maryland. In the NCAA Tournament, the Gators hold a powerful 22-8 SU and ATS record when facing a foe that holds a team won/loss percentage of .770 or better (15-3 SU and ATS if they are seeded at No. 4 or less) and they will advance to the Elite Eight with a strong showing in this contest. Take Florida. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.