Tom Stryker - BYU vs Alabama

TOM'S 67-28 ATS SWEET 16 HIGH ROLLER BEST BET

Handicapper

Tom Stryker

League

NCAAB

Competition

BYU vs Alabama

Release Date

03/27/2025 09:41 AM

Event Date

03/27/2025 07:09 PM

Bet Type

Point Spread

Pick

Alabama -5 (-110) (BetOnline)

Outcome

Win

Analysis

#628 ALABAMA (-) over BYU at 7:09 PM EST Off a pair of impressive SU and ATS victories over VCU and Wisconsin, BYU will bite of more than it can chew when it battles Alabama in the Sweet 16. The Crimson Tide enter this Big Dance matchup off solid wins over the Colonials and Gaels and they'll have no trouble extending the margin in this contest. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Elephants have been on a roll posting a respectable 83-26 SU and 61-47 ATS record in their last 109 games. In this run priced as a favorite of -11 or less, the Tide improves to a solid 37-12 SU and 31-18 ATS. Equally impressive, in the Sweet 16 round of NCAA Tournament, No. 2 seeds hold a powerful 26-2 SU and 18-9-1 ATS record provided they are facing a foe that slips in with steam off a straight up underdog victory. If our "play on" side is battling an opponent that owns a team won/loss percentage of .680 or higher, this situation zips to a lucrative 18-1 SU and 14-4 ATS. Finally, in the postseason priced as a favorite between -3 and -13 points, Alabama holds a strong 38-10 SU and 33-15 ATS tally including an amazing 23-6 ATS provided its opponent takes the court off an ATS win. The Cougars are locked into one of their worst roles. When priced as an underdog and checking in with confidence off a straight up win, the Stormin' Mormons have been a poor investment posting a stiff 30-105 SU and 44-87-4 ATS record provided their opponent hits the hardwood off a straight up victory. In this setting battling a foe that slips in off a blowout victory of 10 points or more, the Blue & White fall to a horrible 22-77 SU and 28-67-4 ATS. Also, there is a fast-developing NCAA Tournament angle that works against BYU here. Since 2004, Sweet 16 favorites or underdogs priced at +9 or less that arrive off a straight up underdog win in which they were competitively priced as a pup of +4.5 or less hold a disturbing 8-34 SU and 10-30-2 ATS tally provided their opponent takes the floor off a straight up victory of three points or more. That power angle works against BYU here. The Cougars 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS run in their last 12 games is certainly noted. However, the Crimson Tide are as battle tested as a team can get and they'll have no trouble cashing this ticket. Take Alabama. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.